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The Opener: Relief Market, Signings, Red Sox

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As MLB’s offseason continues to plug along, here are three things worth keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will recent activity on the relief market continue?

The market for relief pitching kicked into high gear over the weekend as the Astros agreed to a five-year deal with lefty relief ace Josh Hader just hours before the Angels came together with top right-hander Robert Stephenson on a three-year pact. The deals took the two best bullpen arms off the winter’s market, leaving Hector Neris and Aroldis Chapman among the best remaining options for teams in need of relief help. Plenty of clubs still figure to attempt to upgrade their bullpen mix. The Cardinals are reportedly on the lookout for another reliever to pair with recently-acquired righty Andrew Kittredge in their set-up mix, while the Rangers, Yankees, and Cubs have been frequently connected to the bullpen market this winter without moves to show for it to this point.

2. Signings to be made official:

The aforementioned deals for Hader and Stephenson still need to be officially announced, as does the four-year agreement reached between the Blue Jays and right-hander Yariel Rodriguez last week. The Astros, Angels, and Blue Jays all have full 40-man rosters already, meaning that a corresponding move will be necessary when each club announces its latest signing. Often, that move simply involves designating a player for assignment, though occasionally clubs will try to work out trades involving a player near the back of their roster to acquire talent that doesn’t require a 40-man spot. The Dodgers have pulled off a pair of trades in that mold this winter: one with the Yankees to acquire 2021 first-rounder Trey Sweeney in exchange for lefty Victor Gonzalez and infield prospect Jorbit Vivas, and a more significant deal with the Cubs where they shipped out top infield prospect Michael Busch and right-hander Yency Almonte to Chicago while picking up a pair of youngsters in lefty Jackson Ferris and outfielder Zyhir Hope.

3. What’s the plan in Boston?

The Red Sox held their annual Winter Weekend fan event over the weekend, during which team officials made headlines by indicating the club is unlikely to match last year’s payroll in 2024 and suggesting the team doesn’t need to add another starting pitcher after swapping out Chris Sale for Lucas Giolito (despite making starting pitching a focus of the offseason). Even as club officials were downplaying expectations, local reporting indicated that the club remains in contact with free agent starters, including top-of-the-market southpaw Jordan Montgomery. There’s little question that the Red Sox, who finished 22nd in the majors last year with a 4.68 rotation ERA, would benefit from an impact addition at the top of their rotation, particularly after losing a high-upside arm like Sale, but there’s certainly question about whether they’ll actually make such a move.

Latest On The Red Sox Pitching Search

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In signing Lucas Giolito and (surprisingly) trading Chris Sale, the Red Sox haven’t done a lot to upgrade a rotation that struggled in 2023.  Within the last week, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow stated that it has “been a challenge” in finding additional pitching, while club president Sam Kennedy seemed to downplay the idea of a big free agent splash by saying that the team’s payroll “probably will be lower than it was in 2023.”

Breslow did state that the Sox were continuing to look at free agent and trade possibilities, and it appears as though the club hasn’t given up on the idea of still landing a bigger name.  According to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (X links), the Red Sox are “still in contact with the top remaining free-agent starters.”  Reporter Marino Pepen is more specific, writing (Spanish language link) that the club has been continually talking with left-hander Jordan Montgomery.

There is no sense that a deal with Montgomery or anyone is particularly close, or necessarily even a realistic option.  Abraham wondered whether any pursuits of frontline pitching were “serious or not,” or if the team’s explorations could be “just posing so they can claim they tried” in the wake of growing angst in Red Sox Nation.

MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents still has 19 unsigned names.  Blake Snell (ranked 4th), Montgomery (6th), Mike Clevinger (30th), and Michael Lorenzen (34th) are the only clear-cut starting pitchers of that 19-player field, with Jakob Junis (47th) perhaps more of a swingman candidate though he has a lot of starting experience in the past.  It is fair to cite Snell and Montgomery as the true front-of-the-rotation types remaining, as landing Clevinger, Lorenzen, or Junis might help Boston’s staff, but perhaps not move the needle much in terms of quieting fan discord.

Breslow is naturally only under an obligation to make the team better, not to acquire only marquee talent.  However, the CBO is already facing a lot of heat in his first few months on the job given how the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East, and because team chairman Tom Werner raised expectations with his now-infamous “full throttle” comments about Boston’s winter plans.

Terms like “in contact with,” or “checking in on,” or “showing interest in” are commonplace during hot stove season, and this lingo can represent anything from due diligence texts to an agent or a more serious push to close a deal.  It is common for executives to keep in touch with agents about any number of available players, usually in the form of some contact early in the offseason to establish particular interest in a target or two, and then the two sides can circle back multiple times over the coming weeks or months as markets develop.

To this end, it isn’t surprising that the Sox are still testing the waters on the top pitchers, since there’s no downside in such explorations while the players are still unsigned.  As Abraham notes, the Red Sox “could be hoping prices drop and somebody like Montgomery makes sense” within what might be a somewhat limited 2024 budget, yet if this situation ends up being the case for Montgomery or Snell, it is far from automatic that Boston would necessarily be the first choice for a pitcher willing to accept a reduced deal.  

Montgomery has been linked to the Red Sox for over two months now, with some suggestion that Montgomery is the team’s preference over Snell.  Unlike Snell, Montgomery doesn’t come attached to qualifying offer compensation, and Montgomery has a steadier and more durable track record even if Snell’s peaks (i.e. two Cy Young Award-winning seasons) are higher.

Montgomery and his wife McKenzie also have a personal connection to Boston, as McKenzie is currently on a dermatology residency at a local hospital.  These family ties have led to speculation that Montgomery might therefore be more open to favoring Boston as a landing spot, though that obviously doesn’t mean Montgomery would leave tens of millions on the table to give the Red Sox any kind of discount.  MLBTR’s Nick Deeds explored Montgomery’s market in a reader poll earlier today, and given the number of known suitors — the Rangers, Giants, Yankees, and Angels — and possible mystery teams still on the periphery, there isn’t any indication that Montgomery and his representatives are yet willing to lower their demands.

Only the Red Sox (and the players’ agents) know how realistic Boston’s chances might be of actually landing a notable free agent, so a trade might be the more realistic route towards adding pitching help.  Trades have been Breslow’s preferred method of transaction thus far in his brief tenure as chief baseball officer, as the Sox have already brought in Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom in swaps while dealing away Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias.  Giolito’s two-year contract and Cooper Criswell’s one-year, $1MM pact are thus far the only Major League signings of the Breslow era.

Angels Sign Robert Stephenson To Three-Year Contract

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The Angels announced the signing of reliever Robert Stephenson to a three-year contract on Tuesday afternoon. Stephenson, a client of Apex Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $33MM. There’s also a conditional team option for the 2027 campaign based on Stephenson’s elbow health. If the pitcher suffers an elbow ligament injury that causes him to miss 130 consecutive days, the Halos would have a $2.5MM option on his services for a fourth season. He will otherwise make $11MM annually over the next three years.

Stephenson, 31 next month, was the top remaining free agent reliever once Josh Hader came off the board. Within a couple hours of Hader agreeing to a five-year, $95MM pact with the Astros, Stephenson decided to join him in the AL West.

A three-year guarantee for Stephenson would have seemed outlandish six months ago. Until last summer, he looked like a volatile middle innings arm. A former first-round pick and highly-regarded prospect with the Reds, Stephenson struggled early in his career as a starter. He moved to relief full-time in 2019 and had an up-and-down trajectory.

The 6’3″ righty turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in 2019 and ’21 before a rough 2022 campaign. He split the year between the Rockies and Pirates, allowing a 5.43 ERA through 58 innings. Stephenson opened last season with 14 innings of nine-run ball in Pittsburgh.

An early June trade sending him to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams didn’t result in a ton of fanfare. It wound up being one of the more adept rental acquisitions of the summer, though, one that completely changed his fortunes in free agency.

Stephenson was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the majors for the season’s final four months. During his time in Tampa Bay, he worked to a 2.35 ERA across 38 1/3 innings. He punched out a laughable 42.9% of hitters while walking fewer than 6% of batters faced. Among relievers with 30+ innings after June 1, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks punched hitters out at a higher rate.

Even that doesn’t capture how overpowering he was on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Opponents whiffed more often than they made contact. Hitters put the bat on the ball on 49.3% of their swings against Stephenson in Tampa Bay. That wasn’t simply the best mark in MLB. It was almost 10 percentage points lower than anyone else over that stretch. Chapman, against whom batters made contact on 59% of their swings, was second.

It’s not hard to pinpoint a reason for that excellence. Before he went to Tampa Bay, he paired a near-97 MPH four-seam fastball with a mid-80s slider. With the Rays, he leaned mostly on an upper-80s breaking ball that Statcast classifies as a cutter. Opponents couldn’t do anything with that pitch. They swung through it nearly three-fifths of the time and hit .101 in 79 at-bats. By the season’s final month, he was using the pitch at a near-75% clip.

Whether Stephenson adopted the cutter from scratch or just found a way to add a couple ticks of velocity to his former slider isn’t clear. In any event, it’s a pitch he’ll surely lean on frequently in Orange County. The Angels can’t expect him to maintain quite the level he showed in Tampa Bay — that’d be a tough ask for anyone — but they’re surely anticipating him stepping in as a quality high-leverage arm.

That’s not without risk. Stellar as Stephenson’s finish was, his time in Tampa Bay comprised fewer than 40 innings. From his 2019 bullpen transfer through his stint in Pittsburgh, he tallied a 4.53 ERA in 192 2/3 frames between three teams. Some of that can be attributed to playing in hitter-friendly home venues in Cincinnati and Colorado, but he clearly wouldn’t have been a candidate for a three-year pact had he not finished the way he did. His 26.9% strikeout rate over those four-plus seasons was a solid but hardly elite number.

It’s the first significant acquisition of the offseason for the Halos. While Stephenson is their fourth bullpen pickup overall, the other three signings were modest one-year investments. Luis García landed a $4.75MM deal, while Adam Cimber inked a $1.65MM pact after being non-tendered by Toronto. Adam Kolarek, who signed for $900K, was already outrighted off the 40-man roster.

Stephenson will work in the late innings. He doesn’t have any closing experience, so the Halos could elect to leave last year’s key bullpen pickup, Carlos Estévez, in the ninth inning. The pair of righties should take the bulk of the most important work late in games. García and Cimber will occupy middle relief roles, while Ben Joyce and José Soriano could hold setup jobs.

It’s a high-octane group built around some of the hardest throwers in the sport. Joyce averaged nearly 101 MPH on his heater and famously was clocked as high as 105 MPH in college. Estévez and García sit north of 97 MPH on average. Soriano and Stephenson have upper 90s velocity in their back pocket as well, even if both lean more frequently on their breaking stuff.

New manager Ron Washington should appreciate the stable of power arsenals at his disposal, although the Halos likely need to add another left-hander to the mix. That could put the finishing touch on the bullpen, yet there’s still plenty of work for GM Perry Minasian and his front office.

The Halos haven’t made any acquisitions on the offensive side to compensate for Shohei Ohtani’s departure. That’s also true in the rotation. They’ve looked for ways to add a top-end starter. In addition to scouring the trade market, the Halos have reportedly shown interest in defending NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell.

There should still be plenty of payroll room at their disposal. Roster Resource projected the 2024 player payroll around $153MM before the Stephenson signing. Evenly distributing his salaries pushes that around $164MM. The Halos opened last season with a payroll at roughly $212MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ll still be almost $50MM shy of that mark. They’re also nowhere near next year’s $237MM base luxury tax threshold. Stephenson’s $11MM average annual value will push the Angels’ projected CBT number to roughly $179MM.

The contract comes in just below MLBTR’s prediction of four years and $36MM. It’s in line with the going rate for high-leverage relievers with some inconsistency in their career track record, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Stephenson’s deal generally aligns with those signed by Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM), Rafael Montero (three years, $34.5MM), Joe Jiménez (three years, $26.5MM), former Angel Reynaldo López (three years, $30MM) and Jordan Hicks (four years, $44MM) over the last two offseasons.

@Jolly_Olive first reported the Angels and Stephenson had agreed to a three-year deal exceeding $30MM with a 2027 option. Sam Blum of the Athletic reported the $33MM guarantee. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the $2.5MM conditional option based on Stephenson’s arm health. The Associated Press reported the 130-inning provision and the evenly distributed salaries.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tony Wolters Announces Retirement

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After playing in parts of seven Major League seasons, Tony Wolters has officially retired.  The catcher made the announcement on his Instagram page, and noted that he’ll be joining the Rockies in a coaching capacity.  MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes that Wolters will be the bench coach for the Rockies’ rookie ball affiliate in the Arizona Complex League.

“There have been countless moments in my career that have been etched in my memory, as if they happened just yesterday,” Wolters said as part of his Instagram message.  “Those moments will be experiences that I will never take for granted and still wonder how I became so lucky to be apart of them.  Today, after 13 years of being a professional baseball player, I have made the decision to retire from the sport that gave me so many incredible experiences.  I feel an immense amount of gratitude towards the game and all the people that it brought into my life.”

Cleveland selected Wolters in the third round of the 2010 draft, and after the Rockies claimed the catcher off waivers in February 2016, Wolters made his MLB debut in a Colorado uniform less than two months later.  That kicked off a five-season run for Wolters in Denver, as the left-handed hitter paired with such righty-swinging backstops as Nick Hundley, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Iannetta, Elias Diaz, and others in a backup capacity or in a more steady platoon.

There was some fluctuation in Wolters’ year-to-year glovework metrics, but by and large, he was considered a strong defensive catcher.  He finished his career with +24 Defensive Runs Saved, and the Statcast numbers gave him positive grades for his pitch-framing and throwing.  Wolters threw out 65 of 213 baserunners, for an impressive 30.52% caught stealing rate over his career.

Known more for his glove than his bat, Wolters hit .235/.321/.314 over 1266 career plate appearances.  However, the signature moment of his career happened at the plate, when Wolters drove in the winning run in the 2018 wild card game.  With the Rockies and Cubs tied 1-1 in the top of the 13th inning, Wolters sent a single up the middle to score Trevor Story from third base, giving the Rox a 2-1 lead that held through the bottom of the inning.  That game stands out as the Rockies’ most recent postseason victory, as the Brewers then swept the Rox in three games in the NLDS.

After Wolters was non-tendered following the 2020 season, he landed with the Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, and Twins on a series of deals (all minors contracts except for a big league deal with Chicago) over the last three years.  Wolters appeared 14 MLB games with the Cubs in 2021, two games with the Dodgers in 2022, and his minor league pact with the Twins last winter was entirely spent at the Triple-A level.

Wolters is still just 31 years old, but he’ll now hang up his glove for a new path as a coach.  We at MLB Trade Rumors wish Wolters all the best in his post-playing endeavors, and congratulate him on a fine career on the field.

Details On Naoyuki Uwasawa’s Rays Contract

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The Rays agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa earlier this month, as Uwasawa will test his fortunes in the majors after nine seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball.  The contract’s terms weren’t reported at the time, but MLB.com’s Adam Berry has the details on what is actually a split contract for the Japanese righty.

Uwasawa will earn $225K while in the minors and $2.5MM for his time on the big league roster.  He also receives a $25K signing bonus up front, and up to $1MM in incentive bonuses based on innings pitched.  The first bonus level of $100K would be unlocked if Uwasawa pitches 70 innings for the Rays, and he’d then receive an additional $100K for each additional ten innings pitched up to the 160-inning threshold.

Tampa Bay also owe the Fighters a posting fee, though the exact total of that fee has yet to be determined given the largely non-guaranteed nature of Uwasawa’s contract.  For now, the Fighters will receive the equivalent of one-quarter of Uwasawa’s signing bonus, and then will eventually be paid 15% of whatever Uwasawa ends up making during the 2024 season.

Interestingly, Berry reports that Uwasawa opted to take this contract over guaranteed offers from other MLB teams.  It isn’t know what other offers might have entailed in terms of money, length, or any number of other factors that might’ve led Uwasawa to prefer Tampa’s offer, but it might have simply come down to the fact that Uwasawa had particular interest in joining the Rays.  As per his statement at the time of the signing, Uwasawa “decided to play for the Rays because the success and the rich history of pitching development really intrigued me,” so it could be that Uwasawa decided to somewhat bet on himself in taking a slightly lesser deal in order to land on one of his preferred options.

The relationship between the two sides could also technically end before Opening Day, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that the contract contains an out clause at the end of Spring Training.  However, in all likelihood the out clause is just a formality of minor league deals and Uwasawa will choose to stay in the Rays organization, even if he doesn’t necessarily break camp with the team.  The Rays could use Uwasawa in the minors to get him acclimated to North American baseball and to see how his stuff plays in a proper game setting before giving him a look on the active roster.

Uwasawa posted a 3.19 ERA over 1118 1/3 career innings with the Fighters, delivering both quality results and durability — he has thrown at least 160 innings in four of the last five full NPB seasons.  With only a 19.7% career strikeout rate and a fastball that averaged under 91mph last season, there are concerns from evaluators about whether or not Uwasawa will be able to fool MLB hitters as successfully as he did in Japan.  But, as Berry and Uwasawa himself observed, the Rays have such a strong reputation for developing and/or getting pitchers on track that it seems entirely possible that Uwasawa could blossom under the team’s wings.

Free Agent Profile: Michael Lorenzen

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The new year has seen something of a run on mid-rotation arms on the free agent market. Five free agent starters have signed multi-year deals guaranteeing between $28MM and $53MM over the past two weeks alone, and that has left few options for teams hoping to find a capable rotation piece without breaking the bank for a player like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The market isn’t completely devoid of options of that caliber, however. One of the more interesting pieces remaining on the market is right-hander Michael Lorenzen.

Lorenzen began his career with the Reds back in 2015 as a starter, but the then-23-year-old struggled in the role with a brutal 5.40 ERA and matching 5.40 FIP. That difficult rookie season resulted in the righty spending the remainder of his time in Cincinnati has a reliever, while also dabbling in the outfield and as a pinch-hitter. Upon hitting the open market for the first time after the 2021 season, Lorenzen gave up his two-way role in order to return to the starting rotation full time with the Angels. The right-hander performed as a solid, back-end starter in his first season back in a starting role with a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 FIP, though he was limited to just 18 starts by a shoulder strain. Looking at his peripheral numbers, Lorenzen struggled with his command to a 10.5% walk rate during his return to starting in 2022, but struck out a respectable 20.7% of batters faced while generating grounders at an impressive 50.2% clip. That solid, back-end performance earned Lorenzen another shot at starting, this time as a member of the Tigers.

On the surface, Lorenzen’s 2023 season may not seem all that different from his 2022 campaign. While he managed 29 appearances (25 starts), his numbers were largely similar to those he posted the previous season: in his 153 innings of work split between Detroit and Philadelphia, Lorenzen managed a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP that put him more or less in line with his performance as member of the Angels the year prior. Looking under the hood tells a different story, however. Lorenzen’s 18-start stint in Detroit prior to the trade saw the right-hander flash the upside of a solid, mid-rotation arm as he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. While his groundball rate dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout rate declined slightly to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for those declining peripherals by cutting his walk rate by nearly half to a 6.5% figure that was better than league average.

While Lorenzen’s stay in Philadelphia started with an impressive pair of starts that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to just 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he got shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of work with a whopping 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts. That disastrous finish to Lorenzen’s 2023 season saw him bumped from the Phillies’ rotation and used sparingly during the club’s playoff run this year. While Lorenzen’s brutal final nine appearances last year can’t be entirely discounted, it should be noted that Lorenzen’s innings total of 153 was a career high, and the first time he reached even 100 innings of work in a season since his MLB debut back in 2015. That he was able to maintain his success through 122 2/3 innings of work across 20 starts before things began to unravel figures to lend hope to the possibility Lorenzen can return to that form in 2024 with more careful innings management.

In terms of potential suitors, the market has been entirely quiet regarding the 32-year-old this winter, though it’s easy to see plenty of speculative fits for his services. The Giants and Angels have both shown considerable interest in bolstering their starting pitching corps throughout the winter, though each may look to aim for more impactful additions than Lorenzen. Teams that hope to add to their rotation but figure to face budget crunches this winter, such as the Padres and Red Sox, could see Lorenzen, who MLBTR projected a guarantee of just $22MM over two years for, as a more financially palatable alternative to splurging for a top-of-the-market arm like Montgomery or Snell. The Orioles, Pirates, Rays, and Twins are among a host of other teams that stand to benefit from additional rotation depth and could see the veteran righty as a more affordable alternative to other options.

AL Notes: Jimenez, A’s, Criswell

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The White Sox have received “little interest” from rival clubs regarding DH Eloy Jimenez, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Jimenez was rumored to be garnering interest from teams early in the offseason, though there has been little in the way of specific rumors regarding his trade market in the months since.

It’s not necessarily shocking that the market for Jimenez’s services has gone dry. The 27-year-old is coming off a down season at the plate in 2023 where he posted a .272/.317/.441 slash line that was only a touch better than league average (105 wRC+). With nearly $17MM in guaranteed money owed to Jimenez between his salary and a $3MM buyout on a club option for next season, teams likely aren’t interested in paying a prospect premium to the White Sox for a pricey slugger who has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, is coming off a down year at the plate, and is limited defensively.

Those flaws figure to be exacerbated by the presence of comparable options such as Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and even Rhys Hoskins who are available to clubs looking to add right-handed pop to their lineup for nothing but money in free agency. Given that reality, it seems likely that the White Sox will retain Jimenez into the season and hope for a bounceback from the slugger, at which point they could re-evaluate the situation over the summer. Last year’s trade deadline saw Jimenez receive interest from multiple clubs, and the lack of free agent alternatives often pushes teams to get deals done they may have been more hesitant to work out the previous winter.

More from around the American League…

  • Reporting earlier this week indicated that the Athletics planned to take their search for an interim stadium for the 2025-27 seasons to Salt Lake City. They did so this weekend, though Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that the A’s have interest in a new ballpark being built in South Jordan, a southern suburb for Salt Lake City, rather than Smith’s Ballpark in the city itself as was previously believed. Akers relays that the Larry H. Miller Company, which owns the Salt Lake Bees minor league club and is building the aforementioned suburban stadium, has been in regular contact with the A’s and that company CEO Steve Starks said in a statement that the arrangement would delay the Bees’ move out of Smith’s Ballpark if agreed upon. The South Jordan stadium the A’s reportedly have interest in has a capacity of just 7,500, compared to the 14,500-seat capacity offered by Smith’s Ballpark.
  • The Red Sox and right-hander Cooper Criswell agreed to a big league deal earlier this winter, and MassLive’s Christopher Smith recently relayed additional information regarding the club’s plans for the 27-year-old hurler. As noted by Smith, Criswell recently told reporters that club brass have instructed him to come to camp ready to start. That would seem to indicate that Criswell could join the likes of Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Josh Winckowski in a camp battle for the fifth starter job in Boston this spring, though Criswell was careful to note that building up as a starter during the offseason can be beneficial even if he’s eventually moved to a relief role. Criswell pitched in a bulk relief role with the Rays last year, posting a 5.73 ERA in 33 innings of work across ten appearances at the big league level.

MLBTR Poll: Jordan Montgomery’s Market

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It’s no secret that free agency has been unusually slow this winter. As we head into the final week of January, 19 of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB free agents remain unsigned, and that’s after a three-week period that saw nine players on the list (mostly from the middle tier of the rotation market and the upper level of the relief market) agree to deals.

While much of the mid-level market has begun to thin out at this point, the upper echelons of free agency remain surprisingly deep with the beginning of Spring Training less than a month away. That’s particularly true of the starting pitching side of things, where two of the offseason’s top four rotation arms remain unsigned. That includes left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who is coming off a dominant season split between the Cardinals and Rangers during which he helped Texas bring home the first World Series championship in franchise history.

After struggling with injuries early in his career, Montgomery has settled in as a reliable #2 starter in recent years, with a 3.48 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 94 starts over the past three seasons. While the left-hander’s peripheral numbers have stayed largely consistent over that time as his strikeout rate hovered around 22% against a walk rate that stayed in the realm of 6%, Montgomery’s results have improved in each of the past three seasons: his ERA dipped from 3.83, to 3.48, to 3.20 while his FIP dropped from 3.69, to 3.61, to this past season’s 3.56 figure. The southpaw further established himself as a playoff-caliber arm by helping to carry the Rangers’ rotation down the stretch while ace Max Scherzer battled injuries, posting a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts with the club over the season’s final two months before posting a strong 2.90 ERA during the playoffs.

As a clearly capable arm who can be slotted toward the front of a playoff caliber club’s rotation. Montgomery figured to be among the more coveted pitchers on the market this winter. That’s mostly proven to be true. While the southpaw has yet to sign, he’s garnered plenty of interest from teams throughout the winter with more than half a dozen clubs having been connected to his market over the past two months. Some of those clubs, such as the Mets, Cubs, and Cardinals, went in other directions as the winter progressed and no longer appear to be a fit for Montgomery’s services. Several others remain as plausible landing spots for the 31-year-old hurler, however.

Perhaps chief among those options is a reunion with the Rangers. The latest buzz on the rumor mill regarding Montgomery is that he prefers to return to Texas this winter, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently describing a reunion as the “most likely” conclusion to the southpaw’s free agency once all is said and done. Other potential suitors include the Giants and Angels, both of whom have been reported as interested in both Montgomery and Blake Snell in recent weeks. The Red Sox have also been connected to Montgomery in recent weeks, though the club’s payroll limitations likely mean they’d need to move salary to make room for an arm of Montgomery’s caliber.

While the Yankees also remain at least a nominal fit for Montgomery’s services, the club’s recent signing of Marcus Stroman could lessen their need for an impact rotation piece and they appeared more focused on Snell of the two remaining top starters even before signing Stroman. The Phillies have also been loosely connected to Montgomery this winter, though the club appears more likely to work around the edges of its roster at this point in the offseason rather than make a splash at the top of free agency.

Just as interesting as the question of where Montgomery will land is the question of what sort of contract he’ll command. MLBTR predicted Montgomery for a six-year, $150MM contract at the beginning of the offseason, identical to our prediction for right-hander Aaron Nola. Since then, however, Nola has gone on to return to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172MM deal. Reports have indicated that Montgomery is targeting a deal that would surpass Nola’s deal in terms of guaranteed money. It’s unclear, however, if teams value Montgomery more highly than Nola; while the lefty has been more consistent in recent years, he’s also six months older than Nola and can’t compare to the righty in terms of durability. Since Montgomery began his career in 2017, he’s made 141 trips to the mound, or two full seasons less than Nola’s 202 during that same timeframe.

So, how do MLBTR readers expect Montgomery’s market to play out? Where will the lefty land? Will he top Nola’s guarantee? Have your say in the polls below:

Red Sox Notes: Rotation, Cora, Ownership, Boddy

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Upgrading the Red Sox rotation has been a well-established goal for the club this winter, but they’ve achieved little on that front beyond swapping out Chris Sale for Lucas Giolito to this point despite pursuits of players such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga this winter. While chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has indicated that the club remains “engaged” in the market for starting pitching, club CEO Sam Kennedy recently cast some doubt on the possibility of the club making a significant addition by noting that the club is unlikely to match its 2023 payroll in 2024.

With that being said, at least one member of the Red Sox pitching apparatus feels confident about the club’s internal options headed into the season. In a conversation with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, newly-minted pitching coach Andrew Bailey disputed the notion that the club needs to add another starting pitcher to its rotation mix while adding that he feels the group, which consists of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta with the likes of Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock in competition for the fifth spot, has the talent to succeed. That group of pitchers combined for a 4.51 ERA in 791 innings of work last year.

Bailey’s optimism regarding the club’s internal options for the rotation is fortunate as its unclear whether the club will be successful in adding another arm to the rotation this offseason. According to RosterResource, the club’s current projected payroll is just $21MM below its 2023 level, likely leaving room for little more than a lower-level acquisition such as Mike Clevinger, Hyun-Jin Ryu, or perhaps a reunion with James Paxton. More significant additions such as a deal for Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell would surely require the club to move an existing salary such as that of closer Kenley Jansen, particularly the club’s continuing pursuit of a right-handed hitter such as Adam Duvall.

More notes from Boston…

  • While manager Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract in 2024, the 48-year-old skipper recently told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that he has yet to have any significant discussions with the club regarding his future, though he added that he’d be “very selfish” to focus on that and take his attention away from the upcoming season. Cora has previously indicated that he would like to move upstairs to a front office role at some point, though it’s worth noting that he added that he’s “not ready” to make that jump at this point in his career. If he remains in the dugout following the 2024 season, whether at Fenway or elsewhere, he’ll do so as one of the league’s most well-respected managers with a record of 440-370 through five seasons at the helm in Boston.
  • One piece of the Red Sox management puzzle that seems unlikely to change any time soon is ownership. As noted by Christopher Smith of MassLive, club chairman Tom Werner recently spoke to reporters about the ownership group’s plans to remain in Boston long-term. Werner noted that the Red Sox are the “cornerstone” of Fenway Sports Group, the club’s parent company that also owns other major sports teams such as Liverpool F.C. and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Werner added that ownership hopes to remain at the helm in Boston “for a couple more decades at least.”
  • The Red Sox made a significant hire for their front office earlier this week as The Athletic’s Eno Sarris reports that pitching guru Kyle Boddy has joined the club as a special advisor to Breslow. Boddy is best known as the founder of Driveline Baseball, a data-driven independent player development facility. Aside from his work at Driveline, Boddy also served as the Reds’ pitching director from October 2019 to September 2021. This offseason has seen the Red Sox focus heavily on hires with backgrounds in pitching development, with both Breslow and Bailey joining the club’s ranks in addition to Boddy over the past few months.

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