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Boras Clients Who Signed After January In Previous Offseasons

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in three weeks but there is still a lot of offseason business to be completed. 19 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents still don’t have agreements in place for 2024, along with many players who weren’t on that list.

Of those 19, six of them are represented by the Boras Corporation. That includes the four top remaining names in Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman, as well as J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins. Boras also represents notable guys that missed the Top 50, such as Joey Gallo, James Paxton, Hyun Jin Ryu and many others.

While most players and agents would prefer to get their offseason business done early, Boras has shown an unusual willingness to wait for the right deal, even if that means it doesn’t come together until very late. Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, we can look at all the free agent deals signed by Boras clients going back to October of 2010. Focusing on the ones signed after January ended, we can see if a picture emerges.

Quick sidenote, the cutoff date of the start of February is a simple one but also slightly arbitrary, as Boras has signed some notable deals towards the end of January. Prince Fielder got $214MM in late January 2012, Max Scherzer got $210MM from the Nationals in 2015 and Chris Davis got $161MM from the Orioles in 2016, though those latter two both had significant deferrals. But without further ado, let’s look at the track record of deals that follow the first month of the year.

March of 2023

  • Jurickson Profar signs with the Rockies for one year and $7.8MM. MLBTR had predicted Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2023

  • Elvis Andrus signs with the White Sox for one year and $3MM. He received an honorable mention on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2022

  • The 2021-2022 offseason featured a large number of late signings due to the lockout. With transactions frozen from the start of December until mid-March, Boras had to quickly work out deals for Carlos Rodón, Yusei Kikuchi, Ian Kennedy, Nick Castellanos, Kris Bryant, Matthew Boyd, Carlos Correa and Zach Davies after the lockout ended. But that was at least partially due to the unusual circumstances and not necessarily about a waiting game played by Boras, so it’s probably not useful to look at those deals for this exercise.

March of 2021

February of 2021

  • James Paxton signs with the Mariners for one year and $8.5MM. MLBTR had predicted Paxton for a one-year, $10MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Trevor Rosenthal signs with the Athletics for one year and $11MM.  MLBTR had predicted Rosenthal for a two-year, $14MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Jake Arrieta signs with the Cubs for one year and $6MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Aaron Sanchez signs with the Giants for one year and $4MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

February of 2020

  • Taijuan Walker signs with the Mariners for one year and $2MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

June of 2019

  • Dallas Keuchel signs with the Braves for one year and $13MM. MLBTR had predicted Keuchel for a four-year, $82MM deal at the start of the offseason. He had rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but waited until after the draft when that no longer applied.

March of 2019

  • Bryce Harper signs with the Phillies for 13 years and $330MM. MLBTR had predicted Harper for a 14-year, $420MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2019

  • Marwin González signs with the Twins for two years and $21MM. MLBTR had predicted Gonzalez for a four-year, $36MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Mike Moustakas signs with the Brewers for one year and $10MM.  MLBTR had predicted Moustakas for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Brad Boxberger signs with the Royals for one year and $2.2MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Jeremy Hellickson signs with the Nationals for one year and $1.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2018

  • Greg Holland signs with the Cardinals for one year and $14MM. MLBTR had predicted Holland for a four-year, $50MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Jake Arrieta signs with the Phillies for three years and $75MM. MLBTR had predicted Arrieta for a four-year, $100MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Mike Moustakas signs with the Royals for one year and $6.5MM. MLBTR had predicted Moustakas for a five-year, $85MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Carlos González signs with the Rockies for one year and $5MM. MLBTR had predicted Gonzalez for a one-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2018

  • J.D. Martinez signs with the Red Sox for five years and $110MM. MLBTR had predicted Martinez for a six-year, $150MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Carlos Gómez signs with the Rays for one year and $4MM. MLBTR had predicted Gomez for a two-year, $22MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Eric Hosmer signs with the Padres for eight years and $144MM. MLBTR had predicted Hosmer for a six-year, $132MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Tony Watson signs with the Giants for three years and $9MM. MLBTR had predicted Watson for a two-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2017

  • Matt Wieters signs with the Nationals for two years and $21MM. MLBTR had predicted Wieters for a three-year, $39MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Jered Weaver signs with the Padres for one year and $3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2016

  • Pedro Álvarez signs with the Orioles for one year and $5.8MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Austin Jackson signs with the White Sox for one year and $5MM. MLBTR had predicted Jackson for a one-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2015

  • Francisco Rodríguez signs with the Brewers for two years and $13MM. Rodriguez was ranked 36th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.
  • Everth Cabrera signs with the Orioles for one year and $2.4MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

June of 2014

  • Kendrys Morales signs with the Twins for one year and $12MM. Morales was ranked 28th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions. He had rejected a $14.1MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but waited until after the draft when that no longer applied.

May of 2014

  • Stephen Drew signs with the Red Sox for one year and $10.1MM. Drew was ranked 14th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions. He had rejected a $14.1MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but re-signed with his previous club.

March of 2014

  • Óliver Pérez signs with the Diamondbacks for two years and $4.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

February of 2014

  • Francisco Rodríguez signs with the Brewers for one year and $3.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Jeff Baker signs with the Marlins for two years and $3.7MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2013

  • Kyle Lohse signs with the Brewers for three years and $33MM. Lohse was ranked 10th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

February of 2013

  • Michael Bourn signs with the Guardians for four years and $48MM. Bourn was ranked 3rd on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

February of 2012

  • Edwin Jackson signs with the Nationals for one year and $11MM. Jackson was ranked 6th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

February of 2011

  • Johnny Damon signs with the Rays for one year and $5.3MM. Damon was ranked 47th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

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A few caveats need to apply here for context. Many of these older deals were impacted by the previous qualifying offer system, wherein a signing club would have to forfeit a first-round draft pick and a player could receive multiple QOs in his career. This was changed going into the 2017 season, with players capped at one QO in their career and the draft pick forfeiture moved back, depending on a club’s revenue-sharing or competitive balance tax payor status. Since that time, the QO seems to have had less of an impact on free agents.

Even with those caveats in mind, the data doesn’t paint a rosy picture of playing the waiting game, at least relative to the expectations from the start of the offseason. Most guys on this list settled for a lesser contract than was predicted, either in terms of guarantee or AAV or both. Guys like Harper and Hosmer still got really strong contracts, but Harper’s was clearly below projections while Hosmer’s deal stretched the years to get a larger guarantee but less AAV. The results for guys like Keuchel, Holland and Moustakas (twice) came in well below expectations.

Perhaps the early-offseason offers were even lower for some of these guys and waiting it out was the smart play. It’s hard to know for sure without having details of those discussions, which don’t often come to light. But there aren’t many instances of a player waiting until close to the spring and then finding a really amazing deal. That’s likely due to the fact that many clubs have already spent most or all of their budget for the upcoming season by this part of the calendar, or at least they can posture as though that is the case for the purposes of leverage.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the same will happen in the weeks to come, but it will be an interesting situation to monitor for Boras clients as well as any other player. As mentioned, the top four remaining free agents are all Boras guys, but there are plenty of non-Boras guys still available as well. The 13 guys from the Top 50 that aren’t represented by the Boras Corporation are Jorge Soler, Mike Clevinger, Aroldis Chapman, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Justin Turner, Brandon Belt, Héctor Neris, Jakob Junis, Liam Hendriks and Tim Anderson.

Latest On Marlins’ Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo

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As with the past several offseasons, there’s been plenty of speculation and reporting about the Marlins’ willingness to deal from their starting rotation. Chatter surrounding the possibility of Miami dealing a starter didn’t bring about a high-profile trade two winters ago — Miami did deal Zach Thompson to the Pirates as part of the Jacob Stallings deal — but last offseason saw the Fish ship righty Pablo Lopez to Minnesota alongside prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio in a deal that brought Luis Arraez to Miami. Talk this offseason has centered primarily around lefty Jesus Luzardo and righty Edward Cabrera, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that a trade involving Luzardo is “less likely” than a trade of the younger Cabrera. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote late last week that the Marlins have been open to discussing both in trades.

While Cabrera has more club control remaining — five years, compared to Luzardo’s three — he’s also the less-established arm of the two, so it makes sense that the Marlins would be a bit more reluctant to part with the more experienced Luzardo.

Cabrera, who’ll turn 26 in April, has already spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues. After getting roughed up as a rookie, the former top prospect has made strides in the past two seasons, logging a combined 3.73 ERA with a sharp 26.6% strikeout rate. He throws hard (96.2 mph average fastball), has generally been good at keeping the ball in the yard (1.10 HR/9) and boasts a strong 50.6% ground-ball rate. However, Cabrera has also walked far too many opponents, issuing free passes to 13.7% of batters faced.

That lack of command has at times prevented him from working deep into games. While some of his short starts have been attributable to the Marlins monitoring his workload as he’s worked through a shoulder impingement and elbow inflammation, Cabrera’s average of 4 2/3 innings per start to this point in his career is quite brief, even by today’s standards. Cabrera worked a career-high eight shutout innings against the A’s in August of 2022, but that was one of just two career outings where he’s recorded an out beyond the sixth inning (the other was in his MLB debut a year prior).

Clearly, there are still some final steps to take in Cabrera’s development, but his body of work over the past two years offers plenty of reason for optimism. Couple that with club control that stretches through the 2028 season — he’ll likely be arbitration-eligible four times as a Super Two player — and Cabrera should appeal to plenty of pitching-hungry clubs, even if he’s the less-established of Miami’s two “available” starters.

As for the Marlins’ goals in a trade, they’ll surely vary from prospective trade partner to prospective trade partner. The Fish entered the offseason looking for long-term help behind the plate and at shortstop. Rosenthal suggests that a viable long-term option at short, in particular, might pique the Marlins’ interest when it comes to moving a controllable pitcher. As things stand, utilityman Jon Berti, glove-first prospect Jacob Amaya and former top prospects Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards are among the organization’s options there.

That said, Miami also hasn’t done much to upgrade its long-term catching outlook this winter. Christian Bethancourt was acquired in a small trade with Cleveland, who’d acquired him from the Rays. He and Nick Fortes are the only catchers on Miami’s 40-man roster. None of the organization’s current top 10 prospects at Baseball America are catchers.

There’s no indication yet that a trade of Cabrera, Luzardo or any other Marlins starter should be considered especially likely. But the Marlins have sat out free agency entirely this offseason, and the market hasn’t exactly been deep in options at their foremost positions of need anyhow. They likely view the trade market as their best path to addressing those needs in the short- and long-term, as in addition to the thin free-agent market, the team’s projected $97MM payroll (via Roster Resource) is already about $5MM greater than last year’s Opening Day mark.

The Fish are still about $13MM shy of where they ended the 2023 season, but it’s fair to wonder just how much appetite ownership has for additional spending. Rosenthal writes, for instance, that Josh Bell’s $16.5MM salary (which the club acquired in order to dump the majority of Jean Segura’s contract on the Guardians) is one of the reasons that the Marlins have been reluctant to spend this winter. If that’s the case, it’s hard to envision owner Bruce Sherman greenlighting additional free-agent spending of note, which either sets the stage for some trade activity or a disappointing offseason on the player acquisition front (possibly both).

Astros Designate Matt Gage For Assignment

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The Astros have designated left-hander Matt Gage for assignment, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. This move opens up a roster spot for left-hander Josh Hader, whose signing has now been officially announced by the club.

Gage, 31 next month, has been on Houston’s roster just under a year, having been claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays in February of 2023. He spent the year as frequently-optioned bullpen depth, making five appearances in the majors with a 2.70 earned run average. His 34 Triple-A appearances didn’t go as well, as he posted a 4.58 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He struck out 23.4% of batters at that level but also walked 12%.

The southpaw had a better year in 2022, tossing 42 1/3 Triple-A innings while with the Jays, posting a 2.34 ERA for Buffalo. He paired a 27.4% strikeout rate with a 9.5% walk rate and also kept the ball on the ground at a 47% clip. He also made 11 big league appearances for the Jays with a 1.38 ERA.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Gage or try to pass him through waivers. Left-hander relief tends to always be in demand around the league and he still has an option remaining, which will enhance his appeal. His 2023 numbers for Sugar Land weren’t amazing, but clubs will surely take the hitter-friendly setting into account.

For the Astros, their situational lefty group takes a hit with Gage’s departure. Hader will be in the closer’s role for the foreseeable future, with Bennett Sousa and Parker Mushinski as the other southpaw relievers still on the roster.

Adam Ottavino On Decision To Decline Player Option

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Veteran right-handed reliever Adam Ottavino turned down a $6.75MM player option to remain with the Mets at the beginning of the offseason. The decision was a surprise to some, as it’s always risky for any 38-year-old reliever to test the free-agent waters — particularly in lieu of accepting a locked-in salary that’s near the going market rate for a veteran setup man. However, Ottavino was a guest on Foul Territory this morning and, when asked, explained that his decision wasn’t so much a financial one but rather one of wanting to ensure he was in a competitive situation as he progresses into the latter stages of his career.

“To be clear, I wanted to stick with the Mets,” Ottavino explained to host Scott Braun (video link). “It’s the best situation for me, being a New York guy. I loved my time with the Mets. It’s just more of a function of, at the moment I had to make the decision, there was just so much uncertainty with the team. They hadn’t hired a manager yet. There was no coaching staff. They hadn’t gotten any free agents yet. We’d kind of scuffled down the stretch. There was this narrative that the team wasn’t going to try to compete this year. Obviously, I’m not getting any younger. I tried to talk to [president of baseball operations] David Stearns and get a little certainty on my end. Obviously, he’s going to play things close to the vest. That’s the way front offices operate, and I totally understand that. But from my perspective, I just didn’t feel 100% certain of what direction the team was going to look like, come spring training. I also had a lot of deferred money in my contract for this year. In that moment, it made sense for me to test the waters. I’d still like to be back there, but my mind is open to lots of different outcomes this time around. I feel like I’m on a year-to-year basis at this point with my age. I just don’t want to sell myself short; I’ve still never won, and I would like the opportunity to do that.”

Ottavino is an accomplished reliever with more than $50MM in career earnings to date, which also surely factored into his comfort level with turning down that guaranteed sum. It’s understandable, given his age and career earnings, that maxing out his salary in 2024 perhaps isn’t the right-hander’s top priority. Ottavino has pitched in five different postseasons for four different teams (Rockies, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets) but never advanced beyond the League Championship Series.

Given his track record and his 2023 platform year, it’s certainly possible that Ottavino can come close to or even exceed the money he declined from the Mets, particularly when factoring for the deferrals. At the time he declined his option, Ottavino told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that $4MM of that $6.75MM sum was deferred. The right-hander said he approached the Mets about a two-year deal (that would extend into a 2025 season where the club ostensibly will be taking larger strides to be competitive), but the team did not reciprocate that interest.

The 2023 season was yet another solid one for Ottavino. The former No. 30 overall pick (2006, Cardinals) pitched 61 2/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball for the Mets and picked up a dozen saves and holds apiece along the way. Ottavino’s average sinker dipped for a second straight season (94.2 mph in ’22, 92.8 mph in ’23), and he saw both his strikeout and walk rates take a turn for the worse (30.6% and 6.2%, respectively, in 2022; 23.8% and 11.1% in 2023). This year’s 56.3% ground-ball rate was his highest mark since an injury-shortened 2016 season with the Rockies, however, and was the largest single-season mark he’s posted in his lengthy career.

Only once in the past six years has Ottavino had a sub-par season — that being the shortened 2020 campaign, when he had a 5.89 ERA in a tiny sample of just 18 1/3 innings. Collectively, he touts a 2.89 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and 46.4% ground-ball rate in 351 2/3 innings since Opening Day 2018. There ought to be at least a one-year deal out there in free agency, and it sounds as though Ottavino will prioritize signing with a team that has a rather clear chance at a postseason berth.

Designated Hitter Possibilities For Diamondbacks

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The defending National League champions were among the most aggressive teams early in the offseason. They acquired Eugenio Suárez to address third base and fortified the rotation via a four-year, $80MM contract with Eduardo Rodríguez. Just before Christmas, they reunited with left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42MM guarantee.

Arizona hasn’t made a major league addition since finalizing their new contract with Gurriel a month ago. They’re not done, however. GM Mike Hazen has said a few times the Snakes are looking for a hitter they can plug in at the DH spot. He reiterated that in a chat with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic not long after the new year, suggesting at the time they felt they were likelier to add another bat in free agency than through trade. While Arizona was focused primarily on right-handed hitters early in the winter, their deals with Suárez and Gurriel have balanced the lineup. Hazen indicated they’re considering DH options of either handedness at this point.

A few of their reported targets remain on the market. Some potential fits:

Right-Handed Free Agents

  • J.D. Martinez: Martinez, who mashed in a two-month stint for Arizona at the end of the 2017 season, remains one of the more productive hitters in the majors. He’s coming off perhaps his best year since 2019. He blasted 33 home runs in only 479 plate appearances for the Dodgers a season ago. His .271/.321/.572 batting line was stellar and he turned in his highest hard contact rate (54.8%) of the Statcast era. The huge power production partially masks an uptick in whiffs, as he struck out at a career-high 31.1% clip. That’s a bit alarming, but teams would happily live with the strikeouts if they anticipate Martinez hitting for that kind of power again. Arizona was tied to Martinez, who did not receive a qualifying offer from L.A., in early December. The Blue Jays, Angels and Mets have also been tied to his market.
  • Jorge Soler: Soler, 32 next month, drilled 36 homers for the Marlins a season ago. His .250/.341/.512 showing was a huge improvement on the .207/.295/.400 mark he turned in during his first year in Miami. Soler made the easy call to decline a $13MM player option in search of a multi-year pact. The Marlins decided not to issue a QO and, according to the slugger, haven’t shown any interest in a reunion. While Soler is one of the sport’s streakiest hitters, he’s near the top of the league in raw power. He draws plenty of walks and trimmed his strikeouts to a managable 24.3% clip last season. Soler should find at least two guaranteed years and has an argument for a three-year pact. Arizona checked in on his market in early December. They’ve been joined by the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mariners in that regard (although Seattle is probably out of the mix after signing Mitch Garver and reacquiring Mitch Haniger).
  • Justin Turner: Arizona has been linked to Turner in consecutive offseasons. Even at 39, he continues to produce at the plate. He’s coming off a .276/.345/.455 showing with 23 longballs in 626 trips to the dish for the Red Sox. His is a balanced offensive profile. He walks at an average rate, makes a decent amount of hard contact and remains very difficult to strike out (17.6% strikeout percentage last year). Turner is no longer capable of playing every day at third base, but he can factor in at either corner infield spot while logging the bulk of his at-bats at DH. Toronto, the incumbent Red Sox, and Mets have also been linked to him this winter.
  • Rhys Hoskins: Hoskins is the only player in this group to whom the D-Backs haven’t been connected. Perhaps he’s simply not interested in signing as a full-time designated hitter. With Christian Walker at first base, the Snakes would have to push Hoskins into a bat-only role on most days. If he’s open to that possibility, Hoskins makes sense as one of the more consistent offensive players still on the market. The longtime Phillie missed last year after tearing his ACL in Spring Training. Between 2019-22, he hit .240/.349/.479 in more than 2000 trips to the plate. Philadelphia did not issue him a qualifying offer.

Left-Handed Platoon Bats

  • Brandon Belt: While Arizona hasn’t been tied to Belt this offseason, that’s true of essentially everyone. There haven’t been any public revelations on his market despite his strong 2023 season in a platoon capacity for the Blue Jays. The longtime Giant hit .254/.369/.490 with 19 homers through 404 plate appearances. That came almost entirely against right-handed pitching, but he’s still a productive three-true-outcomes hitter when he holds the platoon advantage.
  • Joc Pederson: Last year wasn’t a great showing for Pederson, who hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers across 425 trips for the Giants. That’s not what San Francisco envisioned when extending him a near-$20MM qualifying offer last winter. Pederson won’t come close to that kind of salary this time around. Still, he’s only a year removed from a .274/.353/.521 line. Pederson continues to post hard contact rates near the top of the league and has five 20-homer seasons on his résumé.

Trade Possibilities

While Hazen indicated a free agent pursuit was likelier than a trade, they’re not going to close off the latter market entirely. If they don’t find an agreeable price point with any of their targets on the open market, there are a few speculative possibilities on the trade front.

  • Eloy Jiménez: Jiménez is a right-handed hitter who has flashed 30-homer power upside. His career has been interrupted by frequent injuries, including extended absences in 2021 and ’22 (for a ruptured pectoral tendon and a hamstring tendon tear, respectively). Last year was only the second time in his career that he surpassed 100 games. It was also among his least productive seasons, as he hit .272/.317/.441 with 18 homers through 489 plate appearances. Jiménez will make $13MM next year and is guaranteed a $3MM buyout on the first of two club options for 2025-26. The Sox reportedly haven’t found much interest on the trade market as a result.
  • Harold Ramírez: The Rays have floated Ramírez in trade discussions as a potential sell-high candidate. The 29-year-old had an impressive .313/.353/.460 showing last year. He’s up to a .306/.348/.432 slash in nearly 900 plate appearances since Tampa Bay acquired him on the eve of the 2022 season. That production is built around a batting average on balls in play above .350 as opposed to prototypical DH power. While that and an aggressive offensive approach could give some teams pause, he’s a high-contact righty hitter with gap power and the ability to take the ball to all fields. Ramírez is on track to go to an arbitration hearing with Tampa Bay to determine his 2024 salary. He filed at $4.3MM, while the team countered at $3.8MM. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more after that.
  • Brent Rooker: Rooker, 29, turned in a career year for the A’s. Claimed off waivers from Kansas City last offseason, he popped 30 homers with a .246/.329/.488 showing in 526 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter posted excellent numbers against southpaws (.279/.354/.519) and acceptable production versus same-handed arms (.230/.316/.472). He struck out in nearly a third of his trips but tapped into the huge raw power that made him the 35th overall pick in the 2017 draft. Rooker is still a year from arbitration and under club control for four seasons. The A’s don’t have any urgency to trade him, but they probably wouldn’t consider him a core piece of their long-term rebuild given his age and defensive limitations.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a question about a recent transaction, a future transaction or anything else related to the offseason, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

The Opener: Relief Market, Signings, Red Sox

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As MLB’s offseason continues to plug along, here are three things worth keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will recent activity on the relief market continue?

The market for relief pitching kicked into high gear over the weekend as the Astros agreed to a five-year deal with lefty relief ace Josh Hader just hours before the Angels came together with top right-hander Robert Stephenson on a three-year pact. The deals took the two best bullpen arms off the winter’s market, leaving Hector Neris and Aroldis Chapman among the best remaining options for teams in need of relief help. Plenty of clubs still figure to attempt to upgrade their bullpen mix. The Cardinals are reportedly on the lookout for another reliever to pair with recently-acquired righty Andrew Kittredge in their set-up mix, while the Rangers, Yankees, and Cubs have been frequently connected to the bullpen market this winter without moves to show for it to this point.

2. Signings to be made official:

The aforementioned deals for Hader and Stephenson still need to be officially announced, as does the four-year agreement reached between the Blue Jays and right-hander Yariel Rodriguez last week. The Astros, Angels, and Blue Jays all have full 40-man rosters already, meaning that a corresponding move will be necessary when each club announces its latest signing. Often, that move simply involves designating a player for assignment, though occasionally clubs will try to work out trades involving a player near the back of their roster to acquire talent that doesn’t require a 40-man spot. The Dodgers have pulled off a pair of trades in that mold this winter: one with the Yankees to acquire 2021 first-rounder Trey Sweeney in exchange for lefty Victor Gonzalez and infield prospect Jorbit Vivas, and a more significant deal with the Cubs where they shipped out top infield prospect Michael Busch and right-hander Yency Almonte to Chicago while picking up a pair of youngsters in lefty Jackson Ferris and outfielder Zyhir Hope.

3. What’s the plan in Boston?

The Red Sox held their annual Winter Weekend fan event over the weekend, during which team officials made headlines by indicating the club is unlikely to match last year’s payroll in 2024 and suggesting the team doesn’t need to add another starting pitcher after swapping out Chris Sale for Lucas Giolito (despite making starting pitching a focus of the offseason). Even as club officials were downplaying expectations, local reporting indicated that the club remains in contact with free agent starters, including top-of-the-market southpaw Jordan Montgomery. There’s little question that the Red Sox, who finished 22nd in the majors last year with a 4.68 rotation ERA, would benefit from an impact addition at the top of their rotation, particularly after losing a high-upside arm like Sale, but there’s certainly question about whether they’ll actually make such a move.

Latest On The Red Sox Pitching Search

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In signing Lucas Giolito and (surprisingly) trading Chris Sale, the Red Sox haven’t done a lot to upgrade a rotation that struggled in 2023.  Within the last week, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow stated that it has “been a challenge” in finding additional pitching, while club president Sam Kennedy seemed to downplay the idea of a big free agent splash by saying that the team’s payroll “probably will be lower than it was in 2023.”

Breslow did state that the Sox were continuing to look at free agent and trade possibilities, and it appears as though the club hasn’t given up on the idea of still landing a bigger name.  According to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (X links), the Red Sox are “still in contact with the top remaining free-agent starters.”  Reporter Marino Pepen is more specific, writing (Spanish language link) that the club has been continually talking with left-hander Jordan Montgomery.

There is no sense that a deal with Montgomery or anyone is particularly close, or necessarily even a realistic option.  Abraham wondered whether any pursuits of frontline pitching were “serious or not,” or if the team’s explorations could be “just posing so they can claim they tried” in the wake of growing angst in Red Sox Nation.

MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents still has 19 unsigned names.  Blake Snell (ranked 4th), Montgomery (6th), Mike Clevinger (30th), and Michael Lorenzen (34th) are the only clear-cut starting pitchers of that 19-player field, with Jakob Junis (47th) perhaps more of a swingman candidate though he has a lot of starting experience in the past.  It is fair to cite Snell and Montgomery as the true front-of-the-rotation types remaining, as landing Clevinger, Lorenzen, or Junis might help Boston’s staff, but perhaps not move the needle much in terms of quieting fan discord.

Breslow is naturally only under an obligation to make the team better, not to acquire only marquee talent.  However, the CBO is already facing a lot of heat in his first few months on the job given how the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East, and because team chairman Tom Werner raised expectations with his now-infamous “full throttle” comments about Boston’s winter plans.

Terms like “in contact with,” or “checking in on,” or “showing interest in” are commonplace during hot stove season, and this lingo can represent anything from due diligence texts to an agent or a more serious push to close a deal.  It is common for executives to keep in touch with agents about any number of available players, usually in the form of some contact early in the offseason to establish particular interest in a target or two, and then the two sides can circle back multiple times over the coming weeks or months as markets develop.

To this end, it isn’t surprising that the Sox are still testing the waters on the top pitchers, since there’s no downside in such explorations while the players are still unsigned.  As Abraham notes, the Red Sox “could be hoping prices drop and somebody like Montgomery makes sense” within what might be a somewhat limited 2024 budget, yet if this situation ends up being the case for Montgomery or Snell, it is far from automatic that Boston would necessarily be the first choice for a pitcher willing to accept a reduced deal.  

Montgomery has been linked to the Red Sox for over two months now, with some suggestion that Montgomery is the team’s preference over Snell.  Unlike Snell, Montgomery doesn’t come attached to qualifying offer compensation, and Montgomery has a steadier and more durable track record even if Snell’s peaks (i.e. two Cy Young Award-winning seasons) are higher.

Montgomery and his wife McKenzie also have a personal connection to Boston, as McKenzie is currently on a dermatology residency at a local hospital.  These family ties have led to speculation that Montgomery might therefore be more open to favoring Boston as a landing spot, though that obviously doesn’t mean Montgomery would leave tens of millions on the table to give the Red Sox any kind of discount.  MLBTR’s Nick Deeds explored Montgomery’s market in a reader poll earlier today, and given the number of known suitors — the Rangers, Giants, Yankees, and Angels — and possible mystery teams still on the periphery, there isn’t any indication that Montgomery and his representatives are yet willing to lower their demands.

Only the Red Sox (and the players’ agents) know how realistic Boston’s chances might be of actually landing a notable free agent, so a trade might be the more realistic route towards adding pitching help.  Trades have been Breslow’s preferred method of transaction thus far in his brief tenure as chief baseball officer, as the Sox have already brought in Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom in swaps while dealing away Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias.  Giolito’s two-year contract and Cooper Criswell’s one-year, $1MM pact are thus far the only Major League signings of the Breslow era.

Angels Sign Robert Stephenson To Three-Year Contract

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The Angels announced the signing of reliever Robert Stephenson to a three-year contract on Tuesday afternoon. Stephenson, a client of Apex Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $33MM. There’s also a conditional team option for the 2027 campaign based on Stephenson’s elbow health. If the pitcher suffers an elbow ligament injury that causes him to miss 130 consecutive days, the Halos would have a $2.5MM option on his services for a fourth season. He will otherwise make $11MM annually over the next three years.

Stephenson, 31 next month, was the top remaining free agent reliever once Josh Hader came off the board. Within a couple hours of Hader agreeing to a five-year, $95MM pact with the Astros, Stephenson decided to join him in the AL West.

A three-year guarantee for Stephenson would have seemed outlandish six months ago. Until last summer, he looked like a volatile middle innings arm. A former first-round pick and highly-regarded prospect with the Reds, Stephenson struggled early in his career as a starter. He moved to relief full-time in 2019 and had an up-and-down trajectory.

The 6’3″ righty turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in 2019 and ’21 before a rough 2022 campaign. He split the year between the Rockies and Pirates, allowing a 5.43 ERA through 58 innings. Stephenson opened last season with 14 innings of nine-run ball in Pittsburgh.

An early June trade sending him to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams didn’t result in a ton of fanfare. It wound up being one of the more adept rental acquisitions of the summer, though, one that completely changed his fortunes in free agency.

Stephenson was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the majors for the season’s final four months. During his time in Tampa Bay, he worked to a 2.35 ERA across 38 1/3 innings. He punched out a laughable 42.9% of hitters while walking fewer than 6% of batters faced. Among relievers with 30+ innings after June 1, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks punched hitters out at a higher rate.

Even that doesn’t capture how overpowering he was on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Opponents whiffed more often than they made contact. Hitters put the bat on the ball on 49.3% of their swings against Stephenson in Tampa Bay. That wasn’t simply the best mark in MLB. It was almost 10 percentage points lower than anyone else over that stretch. Chapman, against whom batters made contact on 59% of their swings, was second.

It’s not hard to pinpoint a reason for that excellence. Before he went to Tampa Bay, he paired a near-97 MPH four-seam fastball with a mid-80s slider. With the Rays, he leaned mostly on an upper-80s breaking ball that Statcast classifies as a cutter. Opponents couldn’t do anything with that pitch. They swung through it nearly three-fifths of the time and hit .101 in 79 at-bats. By the season’s final month, he was using the pitch at a near-75% clip.

Whether Stephenson adopted the cutter from scratch or just found a way to add a couple ticks of velocity to his former slider isn’t clear. In any event, it’s a pitch he’ll surely lean on frequently in Orange County. The Angels can’t expect him to maintain quite the level he showed in Tampa Bay — that’d be a tough ask for anyone — but they’re surely anticipating him stepping in as a quality high-leverage arm.

That’s not without risk. Stellar as Stephenson’s finish was, his time in Tampa Bay comprised fewer than 40 innings. From his 2019 bullpen transfer through his stint in Pittsburgh, he tallied a 4.53 ERA in 192 2/3 frames between three teams. Some of that can be attributed to playing in hitter-friendly home venues in Cincinnati and Colorado, but he clearly wouldn’t have been a candidate for a three-year pact had he not finished the way he did. His 26.9% strikeout rate over those four-plus seasons was a solid but hardly elite number.

It’s the first significant acquisition of the offseason for the Halos. While Stephenson is their fourth bullpen pickup overall, the other three signings were modest one-year investments. Luis García landed a $4.75MM deal, while Adam Cimber inked a $1.65MM pact after being non-tendered by Toronto. Adam Kolarek, who signed for $900K, was already outrighted off the 40-man roster.

Stephenson will work in the late innings. He doesn’t have any closing experience, so the Halos could elect to leave last year’s key bullpen pickup, Carlos Estévez, in the ninth inning. The pair of righties should take the bulk of the most important work late in games. García and Cimber will occupy middle relief roles, while Ben Joyce and José Soriano could hold setup jobs.

It’s a high-octane group built around some of the hardest throwers in the sport. Joyce averaged nearly 101 MPH on his heater and famously was clocked as high as 105 MPH in college. Estévez and García sit north of 97 MPH on average. Soriano and Stephenson have upper 90s velocity in their back pocket as well, even if both lean more frequently on their breaking stuff.

New manager Ron Washington should appreciate the stable of power arsenals at his disposal, although the Halos likely need to add another left-hander to the mix. That could put the finishing touch on the bullpen, yet there’s still plenty of work for GM Perry Minasian and his front office.

The Halos haven’t made any acquisitions on the offensive side to compensate for Shohei Ohtani’s departure. That’s also true in the rotation. They’ve looked for ways to add a top-end starter. In addition to scouring the trade market, the Halos have reportedly shown interest in defending NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell.

There should still be plenty of payroll room at their disposal. Roster Resource projected the 2024 player payroll around $153MM before the Stephenson signing. Evenly distributing his salaries pushes that around $164MM. The Halos opened last season with a payroll at roughly $212MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ll still be almost $50MM shy of that mark. They’re also nowhere near next year’s $237MM base luxury tax threshold. Stephenson’s $11MM average annual value will push the Angels’ projected CBT number to roughly $179MM.

The contract comes in just below MLBTR’s prediction of four years and $36MM. It’s in line with the going rate for high-leverage relievers with some inconsistency in their career track record, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Stephenson’s deal generally aligns with those signed by Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM), Rafael Montero (three years, $34.5MM), Joe Jiménez (three years, $26.5MM), former Angel Reynaldo López (three years, $30MM) and Jordan Hicks (four years, $44MM) over the last two offseasons.

@Jolly_Olive first reported the Angels and Stephenson had agreed to a three-year deal exceeding $30MM with a 2027 option. Sam Blum of the Athletic reported the $33MM guarantee. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the $2.5MM conditional option based on Stephenson’s arm health. The Associated Press reported the 130-inning provision and the evenly distributed salaries.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tony Wolters Announces Retirement

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After playing in parts of seven Major League seasons, Tony Wolters has officially retired.  The catcher made the announcement on his Instagram page, and noted that he’ll be joining the Rockies in a coaching capacity.  MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes that Wolters will be the bench coach for the Rockies’ rookie ball affiliate in the Arizona Complex League.

“There have been countless moments in my career that have been etched in my memory, as if they happened just yesterday,” Wolters said as part of his Instagram message.  “Those moments will be experiences that I will never take for granted and still wonder how I became so lucky to be apart of them.  Today, after 13 years of being a professional baseball player, I have made the decision to retire from the sport that gave me so many incredible experiences.  I feel an immense amount of gratitude towards the game and all the people that it brought into my life.”

Cleveland selected Wolters in the third round of the 2010 draft, and after the Rockies claimed the catcher off waivers in February 2016, Wolters made his MLB debut in a Colorado uniform less than two months later.  That kicked off a five-season run for Wolters in Denver, as the left-handed hitter paired with such righty-swinging backstops as Nick Hundley, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Iannetta, Elias Diaz, and others in a backup capacity or in a more steady platoon.

There was some fluctuation in Wolters’ year-to-year glovework metrics, but by and large, he was considered a strong defensive catcher.  He finished his career with +24 Defensive Runs Saved, and the Statcast numbers gave him positive grades for his pitch-framing and throwing.  Wolters threw out 65 of 213 baserunners, for an impressive 30.52% caught stealing rate over his career.

Known more for his glove than his bat, Wolters hit .235/.321/.314 over 1266 career plate appearances.  However, the signature moment of his career happened at the plate, when Wolters drove in the winning run in the 2018 wild card game.  With the Rockies and Cubs tied 1-1 in the top of the 13th inning, Wolters sent a single up the middle to score Trevor Story from third base, giving the Rox a 2-1 lead that held through the bottom of the inning.  That game stands out as the Rockies’ most recent postseason victory, as the Brewers then swept the Rox in three games in the NLDS.

After Wolters was non-tendered following the 2020 season, he landed with the Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, and Twins on a series of deals (all minors contracts except for a big league deal with Chicago) over the last three years.  Wolters appeared 14 MLB games with the Cubs in 2021, two games with the Dodgers in 2022, and his minor league pact with the Twins last winter was entirely spent at the Triple-A level.

Wolters is still just 31 years old, but he’ll now hang up his glove for a new path as a coach.  We at MLB Trade Rumors wish Wolters all the best in his post-playing endeavors, and congratulate him on a fine career on the field.

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