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Josh Naylor Discusses Contract Situation With Guardians

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First baseman Josh Naylor has been a mainstay of the Guardians’ lineup for the past two seasons but free agency isn’t far over the horizon. He’s now over four years of major league service and slated for the open market after 2025. He was recently asked at Guards Fest about the possibility of an extension and it doesn’t appear as though there’s much smoke there.

“I’m going to leave that to them. You can ask them that question,” Naylor said, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. “Obviously, Cleveland’s an incredible place to play. I love my teammates, I love my coaches and, yeah, my brother’s here, too, which is awesome.”

Naylor, 27 in June, has hit 37 home runs over the past two seasons. His 7.2% walk rate is subpar but he’s been tough to strike out, with a 14.9% rate in that department. He slashed a combined .282/.336/.471 over those two campaigns for a 124 wRC+, indicating he was 24% better than league average over that span. He was also given solid grades for his glovework at first, helping him tally a combined 4.3 wins above replacement over those two years, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Looking at the standard operating procedure of the franchise, there’s more precedent for a trade than an extension in this situation. As they look to continually compete with small budgets, the club has often traded players approaching free agency, bringing back younger and cheaper players. That’s how Naylor came to the club in the first place, as the Guards flipped Mike Clevinger and two other players to the Padres for a six-player package that included a young Naylor. In addition to Clevinger, they have also traded players like Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Francisco Lindor and others as their club control was dwindling.

They have given some extensions over the years, but usually for players earlier in their careers. Players like Andrés Giménez, Emmanuel Clase, Trevor Stephan and Myles Straw have signed extensions with the club in recent years, but each of those guys agreed to their deals before reaching arbitration when their earning power was still fairly low. Naylor qualified for arbitration a year ago and made a salary of $3.35MM in 2023. He’s already agreed to a $6.5MM salary this year and will be slated for one more raise next year.

The notable exception to these trends is José Ramírez, who signed a second extension to stick with the club instead of getting traded or becoming a free agent. That seems to have been a perfect storm situation, with Ramírez having admitted that he was told the club couldn’t pay him what he was worth. But since he was happy in Cleveland and wanted to stay, he decided to leave money on the table and accept an extension rather than winding up on the trade block like so many others before him.

Those circumstances all suggest Naylor is more likely to be traded than extended. Beyond his contractual situation, there’s also the fact that the club may have a ready-made first base replacement. Kyle Manzardo was acquired from the Rays in last summer’s Aaron Civale deal, yet another instance of an arb-eligible player being shipped out of Cleveland for prospect help. Manzardo is a first baseman who has yet to make his major league debut but has hit well throughout his minor league career thus far. Like Naylor, he is generally tough to strike out with the ability to hit a few bombs.

The club doesn’t have a strict designated hitter at the moment, so both could fit into a lineup. That will likely be the plan if Manzardo hits well in Spring Training this year or early in the 2024 season. But if he is able to successfully prove himself as a capable big league bat, it would fit with Cleveland’s typical M.O. for the Naylor trade rumors to pick up steam. This winter, he’s already reportedly drawn trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners and Pirates.

Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced this evening that Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Todd Helton have been elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. They will be elected alongside Jim Leyland, who was selected by the Era Committee last month.

Beltré received 95.1% of the vote, Helton 79.7% and Mauer 76.1%. Billy Wagner got 73.8%, just shy of the 75% threshold. This was his ninth year on the ballot, meaning next year will be his last. Gary Sheffield received 63.9% of the vote in his 10th year on the ballot and will therefore not be present on next year’s. The full results can be found at this link from the BBWAA.

Beltré was an international signing of the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic. He debuted in the majors in 1998 when still just 19 years old. Though it took him some time to realize his full potential, he would eventually go on to have an incredible career in just about every respect.

He eventually played in parts of 21 seasons with the Dodgers, Mariners, Red Sox and Rangers. In 2,933 career games, he had 3,166 hits, which included 636 doubles, 38 triples and 477 home runs. He was also considered to be an excellent third baseman, tallying 200 Defensive Runs Saved even though that metric didn’t exist for the first few years of his career. He also stole 121 bases over the years.

Due to the combination of his offense, defense and longevity, he produced 83.8 wins above replacement in eyes of FanGraphs while Baseball Reference has him a 93.5. He was on four All-Star teams, won five Gold Glove awards and four Silver Slugger Awards. This was his first year on the ballot.

Mauer’s career exploits were many, but there was also a poetic connective tissue in that he was so specifically tied to one franchise. Born and raised in Saint Paul, Minnesota, he entered the 2001 Major League Baseball draft and the Twins used the first overall pick to select him.

He would go on to play his entire career for the Twins, which lasted from his 2004 debut through the 2018 season. He played in 1,858 games, with injuries reducing his playing time and eventually moving him from catcher to first base. But he still managed to notch 2,123 hits and finish his career with a .306 batting average.

Of the seven batting titles won by catchers, Mauer has three of them. That included his 2009 season, wherein he hit .365 and won Most Valuable Player in the American League. He finished his career with 53 fWAR and 55.2 bWAR. He was selected to six All-Star teams, won three Gold Glove awards and five Silver Slugger Awards. This was his first year on the ballot.

Todd Helton

Helton also spent his entire career with one organization, having been drafted eighth overall by the Rockies in 1995. He would make his major league debut in 1997 and stick with the Rockies through 2013.

In his 2,247 games, he tallied 2,519 hits, including 1,521 doubles and 369 home runs. In 2000, he hit .372 with 40 home runs, then followed that up by hitting 49 homers with a .336 batting average the year after. He made five All-Star teams, won three Gold Glove awards and five Silver Sluggers. He has career tallies of 54.9 fWAR and 61.8 bWAR. This was his sixth year on the ballot.

Per the BBWAA, this was the 10th time they elected three players, the last being when Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Iván Rodríguez were elected in 2017.

Orioles, Cionel Perez Avoid Arbitration

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January 23: Perez will make $1.2MM in 2024, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The 2025 option comes with a base salary of $2.2MM can be increased by various escalators. It goes up by $25K for 55, 60, 65 and 70 innings pitched, $50K for 20 and 25 games finished, $100K for 30 and 35 games finished, $150K for 40 and 45 games finished, as well as $200K for 50 games finished.

January 22: The Orioles announced Monday that they’ve avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever Cionel Perez. The Octagon client agreed to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2025 season. Since Perez is under team control for three more years, he’d remain an Oriole (and be arbitration-eligible once again) even if the team declines the 2025 option. Perez had filed at a $1.4MM salary, with the team countering at $1.1MM. Today’s agreement will be somewhere between those two sums and will avoid a potentially contentious hearing.

Like most clubs throughout the sport, Baltimore has taken a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration in recent years. That is to say, once the team and player have exchanged numbers and filed those respective figures with the league, talks on a straight one-year deal are cut off. However, multi-year deals and one-year pacts that contain options are still on the table for discussion.

To many, it seems an odd line to draw on the surface. But one-year deals containing club or mutual options are not considered “one-year” contracts in arbitration — at least not in the sense that they’re considered relevant data points in future arbitration cases. Because of that, even file-and-trial clubs will generally discuss them, considering those deals more akin to multi-year pacts that don’t have long-term ramifications in a process where salaries are determined based overwhelmingly on prior, comparable one-year agreements.

Perez, 27, has had a breakout showing in Baltimore over the past two seasons after being plucked off waivers from the Reds in November 2021. The southpaw has made 131 appearances for the O’s and turned in a terrific 2.43 earned run average in 111 innings, picking up four saves and 35 holds along the way. Perez took a step back in ’23, as his ERA spiked from 1.40 to 3.54 while his strikeout and walk rates both trended in the wrong direction (23.5% and 9%, respectively, in 2022; 17.8% and 10.9% in 2023). Even with those red flags, Perez’s fastball velocity held at nearly 97 mph on average, he remained one of the toughest pitchers to take out of the ballpark (0.32 HR/9), and his 60.9% ground-ball rate was elite.

Perez will likely join fellow lefties Danny Coulombe and DL Hall in what should once again be a very strong Baltimore bullpen. There’s no compensating for the loss of All-Star closer Felix Bautista, who had Tommy John surgery in October, but the team’s hope is that by signing Craig Kimbrel to join Perez, Coulombe, Hall, All-Star setup man Yennier Cano and potentially right-hander Tyler Wells (if he’s not back in the rotation), the bullpen will again be quite formidable.

With Perez’s case now settled, the Orioles still have four players whose arbitration status remains up in the air. The O’s also exchanged figures with outfielder Austin Hays ($6.35MM vs. $5.85MM), first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn ($3.8MM vs. $3.2MM), Coulombe ($2.4MM vs. $2.2MM) and righty Jacob Webb ($1MM vs. $925K).

Angels, Miguel Sanó In Agreement On Minor League Deal

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The Angels and slugger Miguel Sanó are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN. The deal for the Octagon client includes an invite to major league camp.

Sanó, 31 in May, has long had tremendous power but has also dealt with huge strikeout issues and health problems. From 2015 to 2019, he launched 118 home runs in 2,051 plate appearances for the Twins. He was punched out in 36.3% of those trips to the plate but also drew walks at a 12% clip. His .245/.338/.498 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 121. That included a huge 2019 that saw him launch 34 long balls. That was the “juiced ball” season but it’s not as though that power came out of nowhere, with Sanó having hit 25 or more homers twice before.

The Twins signed him to a three-year, $30MM extension going into 2020, with a club option for 2023. From there, his production dipped. Over 2020 and 2021, he still hit 43 home runs in those two seasons, with one of them being shortened to just 60 games, but his strikeouts and on-base numbers went in the wrong direction. He was punched out at a 37% rate in that time while batting .218/.303/.470. That was still above average, 109 wRC+, but below his previous levels. In 2022, knee injuries limited him to just 20 games and a dismal line of .083/.211/.133.

After that injury-marred season, the Twins decided to let him go, opting for a $3MM buyout instead of a $14MM salary. He held workouts for interested teams but ultimately didn’t sign anywhere for the 2023 season. Recently, he’s been playing for Estrellas Orientales in the Dominican Winter League and appears to be healthy. In 107 plate appearances there, he has struck out 30 times but also drawn 14 walks and launched a couple of homers, leading to a .225/.346/.405 slash line.

Sanó was primarily a corner infielder during his time with the Twins but was never highly rated on defense. The Angels have an open designated hitter spot, with Shohei Ohtani having been there in recent years. First base and third base also have some question marks. Anthony Rendon is the club’s third baseman on paper but he hasn’t played 60 games in a season since 2019 due to the pandemic and injuries. Nolan Schanuel could be their first baseman but he was just drafted last summer and only has 51 games of professional experience.

There’s no risk for the Angels in bringing Sanó to Spring Training, allowing them to get an up-close look at his health and performance. If he can bounce back into his previous slugging form, it would be a huge win for them. If not, he’s not even guaranteed a roster spot and could be quickly jettisoned even if added. For Sanó, it’s a chance to show his health and abilities to the Angels but also to other clubs around the league who will surely be watching.

Angels Designate Alfonso Rivas For Assignment

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The Angels have officially announced their previously-reported deal with right-hander Robert Stephenson. First baseman/outfielder Alfonso Rivas has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Rivas, 27, has never appeared in a game as an Angel, having just been claimed off waivers a month ago. Over the past three years, he has been given 459 plate appearances in the majors between the Cubs, Padres and Pirates. He struck out in 30.3% of those and produced a batting line of .243/.324/.349, leading to a wRC+ of 90.

The production at Triple-A has been far more impressive. In 499 trips to the plate at that level over the past three years, he’s hit 14 home runs and paired a 15.6% walk rate with a 21.1% strikeout rate. His combined slash line of .307/.423/.483 translates to a wRC+ of 137. Defensively, he’s been mostly at first base but has also seen some time in the outfield corners.

Since the season ended, he’s been on the waiver carousel. He was claimed off waivers by the Guardians and then the Angels and may end up changing teams yet again. The Halos will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. Despite the tepid major league production, the work in the minors is likely strong enough for him to get a shot with another club. He still has one option remaining and won’t even need to be guaranteed an active roster spot by a club that acquires him.

Phillies Sign Kolby Allard

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2:55pm: It’s a split deal for Allard that’d pay him at a $1MM rate in the Majors with another $125K via incentives, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Allard will earn at a $375K rate in the minors, Gelb adds.

2:32pm: The Phillies announced Tuesday that they’ve signed free agent left-hander Kolby Allard to a one-year contract. The Excel Sports Management client will be added to Philadelphia’s 40-man roster, although he has a minor league option remaining, so it’s not a lock he’ll be on the Opening Day roster. Allard, who was non-tendered by the Braves back in November, has three-plus years of MLB service (3.162) and is controllable through the 2026 season.

Originally selected by the Braves with the No. 14 overall pick back in 2015, Allard long rated as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. Back injuries hobbled him throughout the early stages of his career, however, and he’s yet to establish himself at the MLB level in parts of six seasons with the Braves and Rangers. Atlanta traded Allard to Texas in the 2019 swap that sent reliever Chris Martin to Atlanta, and the Rangers sent him back to the Braves following the 2022 season in exchange for righty Jake Odorizzi (plus $10MM to cover the bulk of Odorizzi’s $12MM salary).

In 2023, Allard opened the season on the 60-day injured list owing to a Grade 2 oblique strain suffered in camp. He returned over the summer but made only four appearances before inflammation in his shoulder led to him being shut back down and shelved for the remainder of the year. He was limited to just 12 1/3 innings overall, yielding nine runs on 16 hits and four walks with 13 strikeouts (6.57 ERA).

Allard has just one season with a sub-5.00 ERA under his belt — the 4.96 mark he recorded through nine starts (45 1/3 innings) during his first season as a Ranger. He’s made 38 MLB starts and another 31 relief appearances, accumulating a total of 245 innings but with an unsightly 6.10 ERA to show for it. Allard has missed bats at close to league-average levels in brief looks over the past two seasons, but he has a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate in his career and sits in the 90-91 mph range with his fastball. He’s regularly shown strong command, evidenced by a 7.7% walk rate in his time as a big leaguer.

While he hasn’t found sustained MLB success yet, Allard does have a nice track record in the upper minors. He’s pitched in parts of four Triple-A seasons, totaling 323 innings at that level, and recorded a solid 3.71 earned run average in that time. Along the way, he’s fanned 23.4% of his opponents against an 8.3% walk rate — all while working exclusively out of the starting rotation.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said earlier this month that he’d been engaged with several free agents in an effort to bolster his team’s rotation depth behind its top five starters: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez. Allard is one step toward doing so, and he’ll cost little more than the 40-man roster spot which the team has promised to him.

It’s certainly feasible that Allard could eventually join the big league club as a swingman or lefty reliever, but out-of-options journeyman Dylan Covey seems likely to hold that long relief job to begin the season. And, given that Dombrowski was speaking on record about pursuing exactly this type of rotation depth just a few weeks ago, it seems fair to expect that the initial plan for Allard is for him to open the year in the rotation in Triple-A Lehigh Valley. A spring injury to one of the current starters or perhaps a strong showing (and matching poor performance from Covey) could alter that trajectory, of course.

Nick Margevicius Signs With CPBL’s TSG Hawks

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Left-hander Nick Margevicius has signed with the TSG Hawks of Chinese Professional Baseball in Taiwan, per CPBL Stats on X. The lefty is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Margevicius, 28 in June, has 32 games of major league experience. He threw 110 1/3 innings for the Padres and Mariners over the 2019-2021 seasons, making 22 starts and 10 relief appearances, allowing 6.12 earned runs per nine innings in that time. He struck out 18.3% of batters faced, gave out walks at an 8.1% rate and kept 41.3% of balls in play on the ground.

He was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome in May of 2021 and didn’t pitch for the rest of that season. He was outrighted by the Mariners early in 2022 and stayed in their organization, tossing 49 Triple-A innings that year with a 7.53 ERA. He signed a minor league deal with Atlanta going into 2023 and had a 6.82 ERA in the minors last year, split between Double-A and Triple-A.

It’s been a rough few years with the injury and subsequent poor results. Margevicius would have been limited to another minor league deal if he stayed in North America but will instead head to Taiwan to join the Hawks. The financial details of his contract aren’t known but he’ll surely make a larger salary than if he were stuck in Triple-A somewhere, in addition to getting a chance to showcase himself in a prominent foreign league.

Infield Options For The Mariners

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To say the current offseason hasn’t panned out the way fans hoped would be putting things mildly. Fresh off a heartbreaking 2022 postseason exit and a narrow 2023 postseason miss, Seattle fans hoped to see significant investment in the team that would help put the on-field product over the top. Instead, ownership has opted to place some rather clear payroll restrictions on the front office in light of ongoing uncertainty regarding the team’s television rights.

The M’s are hardly alone in that regard, but that’s of little consolation to a fan base that has seen Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic all depart. Incoming bats like Mitch Garver, Luke Raley, Luis Urias and the reacquired Mitch Haniger all have upside, but with the exception of Garver they lack the recent track records of Suarez and Hernandez. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said early in the offseason that much of the turnover would be in service of improving the team’s contact skills, but each of Garver, Haniger and especially Raley have strikeout concerns of their own. That’s not true to the same extent as Suarez, Hernandez and Kelenic, but the M’s haven’t exactly stockpiled plus bat-to-ball skills and overhauled their offensive identity, either.

The offseason isn’t over, but a good bit of the Mariners’ heavy lifting has been completed. Dipoto said recently that he still envisions potential additions both in the infield and the bullpen. However, that doesn’t mean there’s a blank check or that there aren’t caveats to consider. He indicated earlier in the offseason that the payroll would likely increase but perhaps not by a significant level. The Mariners are currently about $10-11MM shy of last year’s mark. There’s some spending room, but they’ll also likely want to leave some room for in-season acquisitions. On the trade front, Dipoto acknowledged that he’s received interest in young starters like Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo but also all but stated he has little appetite to deal from his coveted stock of youthful arms.

What options could the Mariners take to fit those bullpen and infield goals, then? Focusing on the former seems like a fool’s errand; there are any number of relievers who could be acquired, and the Mariners under the current front office regime have often focused on lesser-known names whom they believe they can take to a new level. That’s been the case with a number of success stories, including Paul Sewald, Justin Topa, Andres Munoz, Drew Steckenrider, Tayler Saucedo, Gabe Speier and others.

It’s possible there’s a similar preference for an unexpected acquisition in the infield, but the supply of names is both more finite and easier to pinpoint. Let’s run through some options who could be acquired without seismically increasing payroll.

Free Agents

  • Whit Merrifield: Merrifield might be the most straightforward answer. He’s a high-contact second baseman with modest pop who’s spent the bulk of his career in a pitcher-friendly setting (Kauffman Stadium) not entirely dissimilar from the Mariners’ own pitcher-friendly venue, T-Mobile Park. Merrifield fits the previously stated goal of reducing the team’s strikeout rate better than any of their offseason acquisitions to date. He could play second base regularly, pushing Josh Rojas and Urias into a platoon at third base. And, in the event of injuries in the outfield, Merrifield is an experienced contingency option who could slide into the outfield, with Rojas moving back over to second base. Merrifield hit .272/.318/.382 last year with Toronto, though he struggled in the season’s final six weeks. His end-of-season numbers are more or less in line with his slash dating back to the 2021 season. Merrifield will soon turn 35, so he’s likely limited to a two-year deal.
  • Gio Urshela: Urshela boasts plenty of contact with less speed than Merrifield but a bit more pop and solid defense at third base. His 2023 season came to an end after just 228 plate appearances due to a pelvic fracture. He hit .299/.329/.374 before landing on the injured list, and since 2021 he’s a .281/.323/.425 hitter. Assuming he’s healthy, Urshela would give the Mariners plenty of contact, good defense at third and 10 to 15 home runs. Given his injury-shortened 2023 season, he’s probably capped at two years and could settle for a one-year pact.
  • Tim Anderson: Anderson has already said he’s willing to move to second base, which is where the Mariners would play him in deference to J.P. Crawford. He hasn’t rated as a strong defensive shortstop for the past few years anyhow, and last year his bat experienced a precipitous decline; in 524 trips to the plate, he batted just .245/.286/.296. Awful as that output was, Anderson isn’t far removed from being one of the best-hitting infielders in the game. From 2019-22, he led the Majors with a .318 average. His .318/.347/.473 line during that time helped him make two All-Star teams and win a Silver Slugger Award. Given last year’s disastrous season, a one-year deal worth less than the $14MM option the White Sox declined seems likely.
  • Justin Turner: He’s 39 years old, but you wouldn’t know it looking at Turner’s .276/.345/.455 batting line in 2023 or his overall .277/.352/.455 slash dating back to 2021. Turner might not be a good defensive option at the hot corner anymore, but he doesn’t necessarily need to be a full-time infielder with both Urias and Rojas on the roster. The Mariners could play Turner at the hot corner occasionally, giving either Rojas or Urias the nod at second on those days, depending on the matchup. Turner has never whiffed in more than 18% of his plate appearances in a season, and while he ought to command a nice price on a one-year deal, even a $16MM guarantee would only put the Mariners about $5MM north of where they finished the 2023 season.

Trade Candidates

  • Jorge Polanco, Twins: Polanco has been locked into the Twins’ infield since 2017, and over his past 2695 plate appearances he’s batted .270/.338/.455 with 95 homers. The veteran switch-hitter is earning $10.5MM this season and has a $12MM option for 2025. On paper, there’s a strong matchup between a Twins club looking to add some MLB-ready pitching and a Mariners club looking for a clear infield upgrade but unwilling to part with any of its young arms in order to acquire a pure 2024 rental. Young pitchers like Bryce Miller likely have more trade value than Polanco on his own, but the Twins typically have little issue balancing the scales with minor leaguers or back-end 40-man pieces (as they did in last year’s Pablo Lopez/Luis Arraez swap and the year prior in the Chris Paddack/Taylor Rogers trade).
  • Kyle Farmer, Twins: Farmer is a one-year rental who has less of a track record of production than Polanco. He’s a lefty masher that can handle any infield position and even has ample experience behind the plate (albeit primarily as a minor leaguer). At $6.05MM for the coming season, he’s well within the Mariners’ budget. Farmer hit .256/.317/.408 last year — numbers right in line with his .258/.316/.402 slash in nearly 1500 plate appearances since 2021. He wouldn’t be a slam-dunk upgrade to the infield mix but could deepen it and provide some insurance in the event that Urias and/or Rojas continue to struggle in 2024.
  • Isaac Paredes, Rays: The Mariners showed interest in Paredes in early December. Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander downplayed the possibility of moving his breakout third baseman but acknowledged he’d listened to interest, as he does on most players. Paredes ripped 31 homers while hitting .250/.352/.488 for Tampa Bay this past season. He’ll play next season at just 25. It’d be hard for the Rays to part with him, but he’s already into arbitration as a Super Two player and the team does have more third base depth than rotation depth after major injuries to Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. If the Rays were to move Paredes, they have top prospects Curtis Mead and Junior Caminero right behind him. With four years of club control and the type of production he showed in 2023, Paredes is the type of player who could command four, five or even six years of a plug-and-play big league rotation piece.
  • Christopher Morel, Cubs: Trade talk on Morel has cooled down. President of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins downplayed the chances of a deal coming together at last week’s Cubs Convention. Still, Hoyer himself acknowledged early in the winter that Morel lacked a path to playing time at second base, his best position, thanks to the presence of Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson in the middle infield. A Morel trade isn’t likely, and his prodigious strikeout totals run counter to the idea of bolstering the Mariners’ contact profile anyhow. But he’d add punch in the middle of the lineup — 42 homers in 854 MLB plate appearances — and the Cubs could perhaps use some more solidity at the back of the rotation. They have a growing number of young arms themselves but lack a clear fifth starter and could see Kyle Hendricks become a free agent next winter.
  • Ha-Seong Kim, Padres: Trade talk surrounding Kim has died down a bit since the Padres trimmed their payroll in other ways, but Kim is entering the final season of his contract before free agency. (His contract has a 2025 mutual option, but he’ll turn that down in favor of free agency.) After a tough first season in the Majors, Kim has come around with a .256/.338/.391 batting line over the past two seasons and emerged as an elite defender with above-average speed and contact skills. He swiped 38 bags and won his first Gold Glove at second base in 2023. He’s also adept at both shortstop and third base. He’s owed just $8MM for the 2024 season. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote last week that the Padres have continued discussing the possibility internally.
  • Jake Cronenworth, Padres: Taking on the entirety of the seven-year, $80MM deal still owed to Cronenworth isn’t something the Mariners or even a team without current payroll constraints would be willing to do. But Cronenworth hit .256/.338/.431 from 2020-22, including a 21-homer, .266/.340/.460 showing in 2021. If the Padres are willing to cover some of Cronenworth’s deal — which only pays him $7MM this coming season — or take on some money of their own (e.g. Mitch Haniger), Cronenworth could be acquired relatively cheaply.

Teams with Various Young, Controllable Infielders

  • Cardinals: It’s an oversimplification at this point to note that the Cardinals are deep in young infielders and the Mariners are deep in young starters. The two teams have discussed their respective “surpluses,” and no trade has come together. Much as some fans may see merit in swapping Nolan Gorman for Logan Gilbert, or Brendan Donovan for Bryan Woo or whatever other iterations of an infielder-for-starter swap you care to dream up, Dipoto and St. Louis counterpart John Mozeliak have yet to agree. Between Gorman (five years of control), Donovan (four years), Tommy Edman (signed through 2025), Jordan Walker (six years) and top prospect Masyn Winn (six-plus years), there are more players than at-bats to go around. The Cards will see Paul Goldschmidt become a free agent at season’s end, however, possibly opening up first base for one of their young infielders. Walker has already moved to the outfield. Donovan and Edman can play anywhere. All of these players can still be optioned, too. There’s no grave urgency for the Cards to deal from their wealth of talent, but conceptually, the fit makes sense.
  • Reds: Different NL Central team, similar story. Cincinnati was already deep in infielders before adding Jeimer Candelario on top of Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The Candelario signing prompted many — myself included — to expect an infield-for-pitching trade that has yet to materialize. But if the Reds indeed plan to play Steer in left field full-time, there’s a lack of urgency to get a deal done here as well. None of Marte, De La Cruz, McLain or Encarnacion-Strand has a full season in the Majors. McLain is the closest, and while he was excellent as a rookie, he might also be needed at shortstop if De La Cruz requires more Triple-A time. Marte was terrific but only saw 123 plate appearances. India won NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2021, but his bat has declined considerably since then. He’s no longer the clear infield fixture he once looked to be, and a below-average defender at second base with a roughly average .246/.333/.394 slash line (98 wRC+) over the past two seasons isn’t going to fetch a meaningful rotation upgrade on his own.
  • Orioles: Baltimore fans are still wondering when the organization’s move to upgrade the rotation is coming. Much of the focus has been on White Sox righty Dylan Cease, but the Mariners have a bevy of controllable arms to match the Orioles’ impressive stock of infielders. Gunnar Henderson is the long-term third baseman. Shortstop is earmarked for current No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday. First base currently belongs to a pair of Ryans: O’Hearn and Mountcastle. That’d be a strong group of infielders as it is, but it’s only scratching the surface. The O’s have top prospects Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz already on the 40-man roster. Both debuted in 2023. Fellow top prospect Connor Norby isn’t far off, nor is slugging third baseman Coby Mayo, who could also muscle his way into the first base or corner outfield mix. Veterans Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias give the Orioles some insurance if the kids don’t hit right away, but they also provide critical depth that makes it easier for the O’s to move someone like Westburg, Norby, Ortiz or Mayo to get a controllable pitcher.

The Chapman Effect

Unless Matt Chapman determines the long-term deal he wants isn’t attainable this winter and opts for some type of pillow arrangement, he’s not going to sign in Seattle — not without a serious pivot from ownership in terms of willingness to spend. Even on a one-year deal, he’d probably cost more than the Mariners prefer to spend. But Chapman still could impact Seattle’s infield pursuit. For instance, if he signs with the Giants — his top rumored fit — that could make San Francisco more willing to trade J.D. Davis. If Chapman goes back to Toronto, it becomes more feasible that the Jays would consider dealing young Davis Schneider. Wherever Chapman lands, he could prompt a domino effect that adds a new entrant or two to the trade market.

Astros Open To Adding Lefty-Hitting Outfielder

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The Astros finalized their big move of the offseason yesterday, announcing a five-year deal for star reliever Josh Hader. Between the Hader signing and the addition of Víctor Caratini on a two-year pact to serve as backup catcher, they’ve addressed their two biggest questions of the winter.

General manager Dana Brown pointed to another area they’re exploring as Spring Training draws nearer. “If we could somehow get a left-handed bat, preferably an outfielder with some speed, that type of package we’ll pounce on it,” he told reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). That’s not to say that player type is an imperative, as Brown added the team is “really good” already.

Houston lost a left-handed hitting outfielder when Michael Brantley reached free agency (and subsequently retired). They project for a starting group of Kyle Tucker, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick. Star DH Yordan Alvarez could see some action in left field. Righty-hitting Corey Julks is on hand as a depth option, while Mauricio Dubón can bounce from the infield to the outfield in a utility capacity.

Tucker clearly isn’t in jeopardy of losing any time in right field. McCormick is coming off a very productive season. He hit .273/.353/.489 with 22 homers and 19 stolen bases over a personal-high 457 plate appearances. Even with a slightly elevated strikeout total, he looks like an above-average regular.

It’s a little less clear in center field. Brown declared at the Winter Meetings that the team was planning to use Meyers as their primary center fielder. Those comments were partially designed to cut off speculation that Houston could trade the 27-year-old. Even if the Astros are legitimately interested in giving Meyers first crack at the center field job, they could look for a potential platoon partner or contingency plan.

A right-handed hitter, Meyers is coming off a .227/.295/.382 showing in 342 trips to the plate. That’s not far off the .243/.296/.375 career batting line that he carried into last season. Meyers has had particular issues against righty pitching. He’s a career .220/.288/.351 hitter against same-handed arms. His production against southpaws (.270/.316/.440) is solid on the surface, although that’s inflated by a .365 average on balls in play that masks a 30% strikeout rate.

Overall, Meyers has been a below-average offensive player. To his credit, he’s an asset on the other side of the ball. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have each graded him as an easy plus defender in nearly 1500 career innings in center field. Giving Meyers the bulk of the center field at-bats wouldn’t be a disaster, but he’s probably the weakest hitter in an otherwise loaded Houston lineup.

With the Astros firmly in a win-now mindset as they battle the defending champion Rangers in the AL West, it’s sensible to look for alternatives. There aren’t a ton of available options in free agency. While Cody Bellinger fits the description of an athletic, lefty-swinging outfielder, it’d be shocking to see Houston meet his asking price — particularly after signing Hader.

Travis Jankowski is a fourth/fifth outfield type who should be available on a cheap one-year deal. He doesn’t hit for any power, but he’s an excellent runner who gets on base and can play all three outfield spots. While Eddie Rosario remains unsigned, he’s essentially limited to left field at this point. That’s not a great fit unless the Astros are willing to play McCormick in center regularly.

On the trade front, Max Kepler and MJ Melendez have been loosely floated in rumors this winter. Players like Akil Baddoo and switch-hitting Dylan Carlson could theoretically be available. None of that group seems all that likely to change teams at this stage of the offseason, but they’re among various players about whose availability Houston could inquire.

How much spending room is at the front office’s disposal is difficult to gauge. Houston’s surprising strike for Hader pushed the franchise into uncharted waters. Roster Resource projects their Opening Day payroll around $239MM, their first time north of $200MM in season-opening spending. Houston will exceed the luxury tax threshold for the first time since 2020. They’re at nearly $255MM in CBT commitments, well clear of the $237MM threshold and on the verge of the $257MM second penalization marker. Owner Jim Crane demonstrated a willingness to stretch the budget to build an elite back of the bullpen, perhaps in response to losing Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgery. It’s not clear how much farther he’ll go for what could be seen as a luxury addition in the outfield.

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