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Brandon Belt Plans To Play In 2024, May Be Close To Signing

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Veteran first baseman Brandon Belt considered retirement after the 2022 season due to persistent knee problems, and he said in October after the Blue Jays were eliminated from the playoffs that he’d have to discuss with his family whether or not to keep playing.  As Spring Training approaches, however, Belt told The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly that he is “definitely playing this year,” and that he could be close to signing a new contract.

2023 wasn’t a completely healthy season for Belt, as he missed about three weeks spread over two injured list stints due to back spasms and a sore hamstring.  Belt also played almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, as the Jays used him mostly in a platoon capacity.  Still, Belt’s 103 games played and 404 plate appearances were his highest totals since 2019, and he showed there’s plenty left in the tank by hitting .254/.369/.490 with 19 home runs.  That translated to a 138 wRC+, ranking 15th among all players with at least 400 PA.

Even with his injury-marred 2022 season dragging down the numbers, Belt has a 140 wRC+ in 1262 PA since the start of the 2020 season.  Though Belt turns 36 in April, it would seem like he is still a very good option for a team in need of some production from the designated hitter/part-time first base role, as long as Belt can remain healthy.  Belt earned $9.3MM in his one-year deal with the Jays and should merit a raise, even if a multi-year contract is unlikely.

The Rangers are the only team publicly linked to Belt this offseason, and the World Series champs have a natural connection to Belt given the presence of his old Giants manager Bruce Bochy.  A return to the Blue Jays might be less clear now that Toronto has signed Justin Turner, though since Turner is a right-handed hitter who can play third base, there might be some room for the Jays to carry both Belt and Turner even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locking down regular first base duty.

The Brewers (with Rhys Hoskins) and Twins (Carlos Santana) have both recently addressed their first base/DH needs, plus other available free agents like Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Garrett Cooper, and Joey Votto are competing with Belt in the marketplace.  There’s also the biggest name in Cody Bellinger, whose role as a first baseman or outfielder might vary depending on where he eventually lands.

One team that doesn’t appear to be in the running is San Francisco.  Baggarly writes that the Giants “tossed around the idea of a Belt reunion,” but a right-handed hitter seems to be the club’s preference given the lefty-leaning tilt of the lineup.  LaMonte Wade Jr. is one of those lefty-swingers and is already penciled into everyday first base duty, and another lefty bat in Michael Conforto figures to take up a big chunk of the DH at-bats.

Athletics Notes: Stripling, Wood, Montas, Waldichuk, Bullpen

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The Athletics’ offseason has been dominated by news about their planned move to Las Vegas, including the still-ongoing question of where exactly the team is going to play during the three-year gap between the end of their lease at the Oakland Coliseum and the opening of their new ballpark in Vegas in 2028.  These issues have naturally influenced the front office’s roster-building endeavors, as GM David Forst told reporters (including The Comeback’s Jessica Kleinschmidt and The San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea) that the A’s have been targeting free agents on one-year contracts, in part due to the uncertainty over where the team will be playing beyond the 2024 campaign.

One of those one-year offers was finalized this week, when Alex Wood was signed to a one-year, $8.5MM deal.  The pitching additions continued when Ross Stripling was acquired in a trade with the Giants, and Forst confirmed that both Stripling and Wood will be deployed as starting pitchers heading into Spring Training.  The two veterans have worked as starters, relievers, and swingmen during their careers (including as recently as 2023 when they both played for San Francisco), but Forst noted that such seasoned starters are “exactly what we need with a relatively young and inexperienced starting pitching staff….We’ve seen what happens when you get a little overwhelmed with inexperience and we started last season with five rookie starters, and it didn’t go well.”

Forst said the A’s started discussing signing Wood and making a Stripling trade with the Giants back during the GM Meetings in November.  Plenty of other arms received consideration on the free agent and trade markets, and MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos reports that longtime former Athletic Frankie Montas was of interest before Montas signed a one-year, $16MM deal with the Reds.  Montas posted a 3.70 ERA over 537 2/3 innings with Oakland from 2017-22, but the righty has been plagued by injuries and under-performance since the A’s dealt Montas to the Yankees at the 2022 trade deadline.

The Oakland rotation now consists of Wood, Stripling, JP Sears, Paul Blackburn, and then a host of candidates vying for the fifth starter’s job.  It remains to be seen if Ken Waldichuk will be part of this competition, as Forst said Waldichuk has yet to begin throwing and won’t do so for at least two weeks.

Waldichuk will see a doctor next week to figure out a throwing schedule in the next step of the southpaw’s ongoing attempts to recover from a strained flexor tendon and sprained UCL in his throwing arm.  The injuries emerged right at the very end of the 2023 season, and Forst’s update was the first on Waldichuk since the A’s revealed in early December that the left-hander was pursuing a non-surgical rehab plan that included both a Tenex procedure and a PRP injection.  Even if Waldichuk gets the green light to start throwing relatively soon, he’ll obviously still need a lot of ramp-up time to make up for the lost offseason work, and Waldichuk seems like a lock to begin the season on the injured list.

Waldichuk’s had a 5.36 ERA in his second MLB season, and his 141 innings ranked second among all A’s pitchers last year.  The additions of Stripling and Wood will hopefully more than make up for those innings should Waldichuk miss a significant amount of time, but the Athletics figure to keep looking for more lower-cost pitching prior to Opening Day.  Forst didn’t exactly close the door on more rotation candidates, but noted that the A’s are particularly looking at the relief market.

Cardinals Outright Moises Gomez

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The Cardinals have outrighted Moises Gomez off their 40-man roster and assigned the outfielder to Triple-A Memphis, according to Gomez’s MLB.com profile page.  St. Louis designated Gomez for assignment earlier this week, but he’ll remain in the organization after clearing waivers.

Gomez started his career in the Rays organization and joined the Cards as a minor league free agent prior to the 2022 season.  At age 25 and after eight seasons of pro ball, Gomez has yet to make his Major League debut, which is perhaps in part due to the Cardinals’ glut of outfielders.  On a team with less crowding in the outfield, Gomez would likely have gotten at least a cup of coffee in the Show after a huge 2022 season that saw him hit .294/.371/.624 with 39 homers over 501 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A.

However, Gomez’s dream year was helped by a hugely inflated BABIP, and he still struck out in 174 of those 501 PA.  The regression bug bit hard last year during a full season in Memphis, as Gomez hit only .232/.293/.457 in 567 PA.  Gomez slightly cut back on the strikeouts and he hit 30 homers, but his walk rate also dropped.

The power potential is obvious here, though between the problems making contact and Gomez’s average-at-best corner outfield glove, it isn’t surprising that rival teams didn’t put in a waiver claim.  Gomez will get more time at Triple-A to see if he can finally correct his approach at the plate, or at least cut back on the strikeouts enough to make himself a viable candidate for a call-up.  St. Louis still has plenty of outfield options, though the list got slightly shorter when Tyler O’Neill was traded to the Red Sox earlier this winter.

Twins Sign Carlos Santana

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The Twins announced they have signed Carlos Santana to a one-year contract. The veteran first baseman, an Octagon client, is guaranteed $5.25MM on a deal that also includes performance incentives.

At the start of the offseason, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said the team was open to adding at first base. That preceded three months of a dearth of activity on both the trade and free agent fronts. With an expected payroll reduction as they anticipated a dip in their local broadcasting revenues, the Twins made essentially no acquisitions.

Things kicked into gear this week with the trade sending second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Mariners for a four-player return. Two of the players headed back to the Twin Cities — reliever Justin Topa and starter Anthony DeSclafani — addressed a portion of the pitching depth the team lost with Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle and Emilio Pagán signing elsewhere.

The trade presaged a free agent acquisition on the position player side, as Falvey acknowledged shortly after it was finalized. Minnesota offloaded Polanco’s $10.5MM salary. They took back Topa’s $1.25MM deal and assumed $4MM of the $12MM owed to DeSclafani for the upcoming season. That netted them $5.25MM in cost savings — the exact amount they’re now committing to Santana.

Moving Polanco indirectly opened the door to a more defensively-limited hitter. Edouard Julien now has a path to everyday reps at second base. Julien will still see some action at designated hitter but won’t log nearly as many at-bats there as he would’ve had Polanco still been on the roster. Santana and Alex Kirilloff should share the majority of the playing time between DH and first base.

Even as he nears his 38th birthday, Santana is better suited to play on the infield than at the DH spot. He remains a solid defender at first base. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved each typically grade him slightly better than average with the glove. DRS estimated he was 11 runs above par a year ago, while Statcast had him at +2 runs.

The defense accounts for a good portion of Santana’s value. He’s a solid hitter but doesn’t have the kind of offensive firepower typically associated with the position. He’s coming off a .240/.318/.429 showing across 619 plate appearances split between the Pirates and Brewers. He hit 23 home runs, 33 doubles, and picked up his first triple in four years.

That offensive output was essentially league average, as measured by wRC+. He also rated as an average hitter in 2022, when he put together a .202/.316/.376 line in 506 plate appearances between the Royals and Mariners. While his triple slash stats were quite a bit higher in ’23 than they’d been the year before, offense was up around the league. (The league OPS jumped from .707 to .734.) Milwaukee’s American Family Field, where Santana finished last season, is also a far more favorable hitting venue than are either of the parks he called home two years ago.

Park-adjusted metrics didn’t feel Santana took a major step forward at the plate. That sentiment was apparently shared by the market, which valued him fairly similarly as it did a year ago. His 2024 salary is a little below the $6.725MM he’d been guaranteed on his one-year pact with Pittsburgh.

A switch-hitter, Santana has been more effective from the right side. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .266/.370/.430 line in 303 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. That’s quite a bit better than his .208/.298/.397 showing against righties. Santana’s recent productivity versus southpaws is appealing to a club that struggled somewhat in that regard a year ago. Minnesota had a .244/.330/.432 batting line against right-handers while hitting .241/.313/.414 against lefties.

Assuming Byron Buxton can play center field most days, which is the current expectation, most of Minnesota’s in-house DH possibilities hit from the left side. The corner outfield trio of Max Kepler, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are all lefty bats, as is Kirilloff. Santana complements the group from a handedness perspective.

Perhaps more importantly, he has also been incredibly durable. Santana has remarkably gone on the injured list just one time since 2014 (a minimal stay for ankle bursitis in May ’22). He has played in 130+ games in every full schedule since 2011 and appeared in all 60 contests during the shortened season. That kind of reliability pairs well with Kirilloff, a talented hitter who has been bothered by various injuries to this point in his career.

Kirilloff has missed time in all three of his MLB campaigns. Right wrist injuries led to extended absences in his first two seasons, culminating in season-ending surgeries both years. He battled shoulder problems last season and underwent a labrum repair in October. While he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, the injury history has to be of concern to the front office. Last season’s 88 MLB games represented his personal high.

Minnesota’s payroll projection jumps back to the approximate $123MM figure at which they started this week, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re reportedly aiming for a season-opening payroll in the $125-140MM range.

Darren Wolfson of SKOR North first reported the Twins and Santana had agreed to a one-year contract. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the $5.25MM guarantee and inclusion of performance bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Tommy Pham’s Market

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Tommy Pham stands as one of the better outfielders still on the open market. With Spring Training a couple weeks away, the 10-year MLB veteran is fielding interest from a handful of teams.

Juan Toribio of MLB.com tweets that eight-plus clubs remain in contact with Pham’s camp. Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates the Red Sox have some degree of interest. Boston chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said last month the team was open to adding a right-handed hitting outfielder, making that a natural fit.

Pham is headed into his age-36 campaign. He’s coming off a productive year split between the Mets and eventual NL champion Diamondbacks. Pham hit 16 homers with a combined .256/.328/.446 batting line through 481 plate appearances in the regular season. He stole 22 bases in 25 attempts with slightly better than average walk and strikeout rates (9.8% and 22%, respectively). He made hard contact — an exit velocity of 95 MPH or better — on nearly half his batted balls.

As Arizona made their surprising run to the Fall Classic, Pham chipped in a .279/.297/.475 line with a trio of homers across 16 postseason games. It was a solid finish to his most productive season since 2019. He paired that well-rounded showing at the plate with league average defensive marks in a bit more than 500 innings of left field work.

That performance should at least secure Pham another decent salary on a one-year contract, although it might not be enough for a multi-year deal at his age. He has signed one-year deals in each of the last two offseasons. He inked a $7.5MM guarantee with the Reds going into 2022 and a $6MM contract with the Mets last winter. His camp should look to beat those numbers off a superior platform showing than he had in either of the previous two free agent trips.

Pham finished the ’22 campaign in Boston, as Cincinnati dealt him to the Red Sox at the deadline. While the Sox have since changed front office leaders, manager Alex Cora and much of the roster is familiar with Pham from that previous stint. Boston has swapped in Tyler O’Neill for Alex Verdugo this offseason. O’Neill joins Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Rob Refsnyder and young players Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela in the outfield mix.

Arnold: Brewers “Open To More Conversations” Following Burnes Trade

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Last night’s trade of Corbin Burnes took baseball by surprise. With spring training less than two weeks away and the Brewers having just spent $34MM to sign Rhys Hoskins for the next two seasons, the general expectation had been that the team planned to hold onto top stars like Burnes, Willy Adames and Devin Williams, despite the trio inching closer to free agency. (Burnes and Adames are free agents next winter, Williams after the 2025 season.) The Orioles, however, clearly came through with an offer that Milwaukee general manager felt he couldn’t turn down, and in the wake of the trade Arnold acknowledged that he’s “certainly open to more conversations” and “wouldn’t shut any conversations down at this point in the offseason” (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

That’s a far cry from a declaration that the Brewers are open for business, but both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com report that Williams, in particular, is also a possibility to move. Rosenthal writes that the Brewers have already “entertained” the possibility of moving the star righty.

Williams, 29, is among the game’s most dominant relievers. Over the past four seasons, he’s logged a 1.75 ERA while striking out a staggering 40.5% of his opponents. Williams’ 11.9% walk rate is well above the league average, but his prodigious strikeout ability, strong 49.5% ground-ball rate and knack for inducing weak contact (85.1 mph average exit velocity, 28.2% hard-hit rate) have all combined to help him mitigate that shaky command.

Excellent as he’s been, Williams isn’t the prototypical power-armed closer we see so often in today’s game. That’s not to suggest he’s a soft-tosser, but he doesn’t brandish the triple-digit heater that’s become increasingly common in modern baseball. Williams averaged 94.2 mph on his fastball in 2023 — an exact match with the league average for relievers — and sits at 94.8 mph dating back to 2020. However, Williams has one of the game’s best pitches, an 80-grade changeup nicknamed the “airbender.” Nearly a quarter of the changeups Williams has thrown in his career (23.1%) have generated a swinging strike. Opponents have batted just .137 and slugged only .199 against the pitch in his career.

Beyond his sheer dominance, Williams is eminently affordable. He agreed to a one-year, $7.25MM deal last month and tacked on a $10.5MM club option for the 2025 campaign, thus avoiding the need for an arbitration hearing this year or next. The value of that club option will likely increase based on some escalators that are baked into the contract. Pitching in 52 games would bump the option value by $200K, while reaching 57 and 62 appearances would add $250K each, plus another $300K for 66 games (which would establish a new career-high, topping 2022’s 65 games). Even if Williams unlocks that full $1MM worth of escalators, an $11.5MM option on a reliever of this caliber would still be a clear bargain.

It should be noted and emphasized that there’s no indication Milwaukee is aggressively shopping Williams or anyone else on the roster. This, however, is the manner in which the Brewers (and Arnold’s former organization, the Rays) have continually operated: maintain an openness on star players as their club control dwindles — particularly those who are likely beyond the organization’s comfort level in terms of asking price on an extension.

Flexibility when it comes to moving short-term players with one to two years of club control is a driving factor in how the Brewers have remained competitive regularly despite perennially ranking in the bottom half of the league in terms of payroll. The trade of Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline netted the Brewers left-hander Robert Gasser (one of their current top pitching prospects) and outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who was subsequently flipped for William Contreras, who won a Silver Slugger as Milwaukee’s starting catcher last season. Hader himself came to Milwaukee alongside Adrian Houser in a trade sending Carlos Gomez to Houston. Right-hander Freddy Peralta, now the Brewers’ top starter, was acquired as a 19-year-old in a trade sending first baseman Adam Lind to Seattle. The list goes on.

Any trade involving Williams will surely require a steep asking price — arguably a comparable or even greater return than Burnes commanded, given his extra year of club control and more affordable contract status. And Williams, like Burnes, figures to be a qualifying offer candidate once he’s able to reach free agency, meaning a new team would know that so long as he remains healthy, there’ll be some draft pick compensation to help recoup the value surrendered in order to acquire him in the first place.

It stands to reason that with Burnes out the door and at least a willingness to listen on Williams, the Brewers have similar thoughts on Adames. The 28-year-old broke out almost immediately after being traded from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee in 2021, when the Brewers sent righties Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen to the Rays in exchange for Adames and righty Trevor Richards.

In two and a half seasons as a Brewer, Adames has slashed .242/.319/.454 with 75 homers, 86 doubles and a pair of triples in 1668 plate appearances — all while playing strong defense at a premium position. He’s walked at a 10% clip against a 26% strikeout rate and established himself as a power threat who can hit anywhere in the order, evidenced by 2022’s 31-homer showing. Adames has turned in 17 Defensive Runs Saved and 26 Outs Above Average in the past two seasons alone. He’ll earn a reasonable $12.25MM in 2024 before becoming a free agent ahead of his age-29 season.

As with Burnes, Adames will be a slam-dunk qualifying offer candidate next season. He’s extremely likely to receive and reject a QO, and he’d surely sign a contract worth more than $50MM in total with his next team. That’d give Milwaukee a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of the 2025 draft. Any trade offers would need to eclipse that value — and likely by a strong margin.

That said, the acquisition of Joey Ortiz in the Burnes trade makes it easier for the Brewers to listen to offers. Ortiz himself is a shortstop — and an MLB-ready one at that. He struggled in a tiny sample during last year’s MLB debut (34 plate appearances, .212/.206/.242) but is an accomplished upper-minors hitter who’s considered a good defender at shortstop. The 25-year-old Ortiz spent the bulk of the 2023 season in Triple-A Norfolk, where he slashed .321/.378/.507. That marked his second stint in Norfolk, as he also finished out the 2022 season there and hit well in a sample of 115 plate appearances. Overall, in 504 trips to the plate at Triple-A, Ortiz is a .327/.383/.521 hitter with 13 homers, 37 doubles, six triples and 17 steals.

Of course, as a plus defender at shortstop, Ortiz is more than capable of breaking into the big leagues as an everyday second baseman or third baseman. He and Adames can absolutely coexist on Milwaukee’s roster, and Ortiz could easily slide over to shortstop in 2025 if the team hangs onto Adames for the upcoming season. The Brewers surely don’t feel they need to trade Adames, but as Arnold strongly implied, he also won’t be turning anyone away on principle, either.

That willingness to listen could set the stage for another splashy trade or even two between now and Opening Day, but this isn’t an A’s-esque situation where the Brewers will be selling everything that’s not nailed down. Burnes commanded a pair of immediate big leaguers who both have six years of club control remaining. Any trades of Williams, Adames and/or anyone else on the roster would presumably need to afford similar near-term help.

The Brewers’ recent signing of Hoskins and focus on MLB-ready talent even in trading away their ace highlights the fact that this isn’t a team punting on 2024. Rather, they’re trying to thread the needle of remaining competitive on an annual basis without needing to undergo the exact type of teardown that Burnes’ new team underwent for a half decade prior to emerging as a powerhouse in the AL East. Teams will undoubtedly check back in on Williams, Adames and others in the wake of the Burnes blockbuster, but further trades aren’t necessarily a given.

Pirates Have Shown Interest In Gary Sanchez

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The Pirates are among the teams showing interest in Gary Sánchez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The two-time All-Star is the best unsigned player in an otherwise weak free agent catching class.

Sánchez is no longer the franchise catcher he once seemed he’d be in the Bronx. He has been a solid regular for the majority of his career, though, and he’s coming off an effective season for the Padres. San Diego nabbed Sánchez off waivers from the Mets at the end of May. He emerged as their top option behind the plate with decent work on both sides of the ball.

His offensive profile is built around plus power. Sánchez popped 19 home runs in 260 plate appearances a year ago. Were it not for a season-ending wrist fracture sustained when he was hit by a pitch in early September, he’d have gotten to the 20-homer mark for the fifth time in his career. That compensates for low batting averages and middling on-base marks. Sánchez finished his time as a Padre with a .218/.292/.500 line.

Much maligned for his receiving skills with the Yankees, he has improved his defensive marks over the past two years. Statcast has rated him as a slightly above-average pitch framer in each of the last couple seasons. His blocking metrics are marginally below par but nowhere near as bad as they were during his first four campaigns. He still has a plus arm, ranking in the top 10 in average pop time last year.

The Padres remained in contact with Sánchez early in the offseason. It seems his asking price was beyond their comfort zone, though, and they pivoted to acquire Kyle Higashioka in the Juan Soto blockbuster. With Higashioka backing up Luis Campusano, it looks as if Sánchez will head elsewhere.

Pittsburgh wouldn’t have been a candidate to add a catcher a couple months ago. Second-year backstop Endy Rodríguez suffered a fluke elbow injury while hitting in winter ball and underwent UCL surgery that ends his 2024 campaign before it began. That leaves the Bucs to decide whether to count on former first overall pick Henry Davis as their #1 option behind the plate.

Davis hasn’t started an MLB game at catcher. He made 49 starts in right field and 11 as a designated hitter in deference to Rodríguez. Prospect evaluators have questioned his ability to stick as a catcher going back to his college days at Louisville. GM Ben Cherington and skipper Derek Shelton have both said this offseason they’re still optimistic about Davis’ future at the position, but there’d be risk in counting on him as the starter next season.

Their depth options don’t provide much offensive upside. Jason Delay remains on the 40-man roster, while the Bucs added Ali Sánchez on a big league free agent contract. Delay is a career .233/.293/.311 hitter in 127 MLB contests. Ali Sánchez is a 27-year-old with seven career big league appearances, none since 2021.

White Sox, Kevin Pillar Agree To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox are in agreement with outfielder Kevin Pillar on a minor league contract, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams (X link). The All Bases Covered Sports Management client would be paid at a $3MM rate if he cracks the major league roster.

Pillar spent the 2023 season in Atlanta. The veteran outfielder inked a non-roster deal with the Braves last winter and cracked the MLB team out of camp. He spent the entire season on the big league club in a reserve outfield capacity. The 11-year MLB veteran appeared in half of Atlanta’s games. He hit .228/.248/.416 through 206 trips to the plate.

The righty-hitting Pillar connected on nine home runs and 10 doubles in a fairly limited sample. A minuscule 2.9% walk rate and a .255 average on balls in play led to a very low on-base mark. That’s the profile Pillar has had throughout his career. He has had a sub-.300 OBP in five of the past six seasons, but he’s reached 15 homers in four different campaigns.

Early in his career, Pillar was one of the sport’s preeminent defensive outfielders. He posted plus defensive marks over his first three-plus seasons, working as a regular center fielder for the Blue Jays. Those grades dipped in 2018-19 as Pillar neared his 30th birthday. He has seen increasing action in the corners in recent years. Pillar started 40 games in the corner outfield while getting the nod in center on three occasions a season ago.

The White Sox have Luis Robert Jr. locked into center and will give Andrew Benintendi a rebound opportunity in left. There’s a vacancy in right field, where the Sox got a dismal .219/.271/.344 showing. Oscar Colás and Gavin Sheets still stand as the top in-house options despite rough 2023 campaigns. Both players hit left-handed, so Pillar could battle for a short-side platoon role. He owns a roughly average .272/.298/.494 slash against southpaws over the past five seasons.

White Sox Interested In Dominic Smith

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Free agent first baseman Dominic Smith has interest from five different clubs, per Robert Murray of FanSided, with the White Sox the only one to be specifically identified.

Smith, 29 in June, has had an up-and-down career. He was selected 11th overall by the Mets in 2013 and was often on top 100 prospect lists on his way up through the minors. But he didn’t hit the ground running in the majors. He got 332 plate appearances over 2017 and 2018 and hit 14 home runs, but he paired a 28.9% strikeout rate with a 5.4% walk rate. The result was a combined batting line of .210/.259/.406 and wRC+ of 78 in that time.

He finally clicked in 2019, getting his strikeout rate down to 22.3% and his walk rate up to 9.6%. He hit 11 home runs in 89 games for a .282/.355/.525 batting line and 134 wRC+. But it wasn’t all perfect, as he had to move from first base to left field thanks to the breakout of Pete Alonso. He also missed most of the second half due to a stress reaction in left foot. But he was healthy again in 2020, hitting .316/.377/.616 in that shortened season for a huge wRC+ of 166.

But he hasn’t been able to get anywhere near that output since. He hit just .233/.298/.345 over the next two seasons, wRC+ of 80, while dealing with injury challenges. He played through a partially-torn labrum in 2021 and then suffered a right ankle sprain in 2022.

He was non-tendered by the Mets and landed with the Nats on a one-year deal with a $2MM guarantee and $2MM of bonuses. For the rebuilding Nats club, it was hoped that a move from left field back to his natural first base position would help Smith get back on track and perhaps turn him into a trade candidate. But that didn’t exactly work out.

He stayed healthy enough to take 586 plate appearances over 153 games last year but had limited impact at the plate. His 15.5% strikeout rate was about seven percentage points lower than most of his previous career work, but he hit just 15 home runs for the year. He finished the season with a .254/.326/.366 line and wRC+ of 90. That’s not disastrous output but less than ideal for a first baseman, where a potent bat is generally the expectation.

Defensively, the move back to first was a success, as Smith earned five Defensive Runs Saved, one Out Above Average and a grade of 5.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. But the Nats decided to move on nonetheless. They could have retained Smith via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a modest salary of $4.3MM, but Smith was non-tendered and sent back to the open market.

Perhaps he traded too much power for contact. As mentioned, his strikeout rate was abnormally low in 2023 compared to his previous work. Striking out less isn’t a bad thing, but his 86.3 mph average exit velocity was at least two miles below every other season of his career. Getting back to focusing on doing damage would perhaps lead to more punchouts but also more homers. So far this offseason, his market has been fairly quiet. He had reported interest from the Pirates, but that was before they signed Rowdy Tellez.

For the White Sox, they have Andrew Vaughn at first base and Eloy Jiménez likely in the designated hitter spot most of the time. Jimenez can play the outfield, as can Smith, but neither is strong out there on the grass. Jiménez has received some trade interest this offseason and could perhaps find himself on the move, or maybe the club is just eyeing Smith as a backup in the event of injury. Jiménez has dealt with various ailments throughout his career and hasn’t yet topped 122 games in a major league season.

Smith won’t command a huge salary. The Nats presumably called other clubs and tried to gauge trade interest before letting him go for nothing, meaning that no club around the league was willing to pay a few million to get Smith in November. That means the Sox could presumably sign him for a fairly modest fee, even if they only envision him as a bench bat or part-time player.

The club is doing a roster retool of sorts and should have plenty of money for such a move. Roster Resource estimates that their 2024 payroll is set to be $151MM. They had an Opening Day figure of $181MM last year and were at $193MM the year before that, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they pull the trigger on deals for rumored trade candidates like Jiménez or Dylan Cease, it would only drop them further from those numbers.

Mets Sign Jake Diekman

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The Mets announced the signing of free agent lefty Jake Diekman to a one-year contract. The veteran reliever, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, is reportedly guaranteed $4MM. There’s a matching club option for the 2025 season, which Diekman would vest if he appears in 58 games this year.

Diekman, 37, is a veteran of 12 major league seasons. The Mets would be the southpaw’s ninth club. He’s never had even average command of the strike zone (career 13.3% walk rate), but he’s a power-armed lefty who misses bats in droves and has managed to overcome his penchant for walks more often than not.

The 2023 season was an uneven one for Diekman, who opened the year with an ugly 11 1/3 innings in the White Sox bullpen before (like so many pitchers before him) making a 180-degree turnaround upon signing with the Rays. Diekman was rocked for 10 runs on 11 hits and 13 walks with the ChiSox but gave the Rays 45 1/3 frames of 2.18 ERA ball with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 13.5% walk rate. He averaged 95.7 mph on his heater during his time with Tampa Bay — right in line with the 95.6 mph he averaged over the seven seasons prior.

While Diekman has had some rough seasons interspersed throughout his mostly solid career, he’s never posted an ERA of 5.00 or higher and has kept his earned run average south of 4.00 in eight of his dozen MLB campaigns. On the whole, he sports a lifetime 3.82 ERA in 570 1/3 MLB innings, including a 3.67 ERA over the past four years.

Tampa Bay changed up his pitch usage a bit, as Diekman threw his changeup at a career-high 15.8% clip as a Ray. He’d previously never thrown the pitch at more than a 7% clip in any full season. In fact, Diekman entered the season with just 149 total changeups thrown in his career … before throwing 137 of them in 2023 alone. The results were strong: opponents batted just .176/.222/.294 in the 36 plate appearances that Diekman finished off with a changeup. His slider and four-seamer remained effective as ever; opponents hit just .161 and .175 while slugging .290 and .228 against that pair of offerings, respectively.

Lack of command has been the primary flaw holding Diekman back from standing as one of the game’s elite lefties. At age 37, that’s unlikely to change. But even with a bloated walk rate, the quality of Diekman’s pitches should continue to produce plenty of whiffs and a deluge of weak contact. Opponents have averaged a below-average 87.8 mph off the bat against him in his MLB career and hit just 33.6% of batted balls at 95 mph or greater. In 2023, opponents mustered a pitiful 84.6 mph average exit velocity and similarly feeble 26.4% hard-hit rate against him.

The Mets signed a quartet of free agent relievers to major league contracts before talks with Diekman gained traction, adding Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams and, most recently, Adam Ottavino on one-year deals. That group figures to join returning veterans Edwin Diaz, Brooks Raley and Drew Smith in a revamped Mets bullpen.

One thing the Mets lack in the bullpen, following that slate of veteran additions, is flexibility. None of Diaz, Raley, Smith, Ottavino, Diekman, Lopez, Tonkin or Adams can be optioned to the minors, nor can Sean Reid-Foley or Phil Bickford. That sets the stage for the Mets to further shake up the relief mix, either by designating someone like Reid-Foley or Bickford for assignment or perhaps finding a trade partner for one or both of those holdovers.

The Mets are already in the highest tier of luxury taxation and are entering their third straight season exceeding the tax threshold. As such, every dollar they spend at this stage of the offseason is taxed at a 110% rate. Effectively, they’ll pay just over double whatever Diekman’s salary is in order to add him to the bullpen for the upcoming season. The Mets had a projected $309MM payroll and $322MM of luxury obligations even without Diekman, per Roster Resource. Both numbers jump even further north by $4MM.

Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Mets and Diekman were nearing an agreement. SNY’s Andy Martino reported the Mets had offered a one-year deal with a vesting option at around $4-5MM annually. Martino confirmed the sides had an agreement. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported the $4MM guarantee, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the $4MM option that vested with 58 appearances.

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