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The Opener: Prospect Promotions, Darvish, MLBTR Chat

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Astros, Rockies promoting prospects:

The Astros are off to their worst start in recent memory this season with a 9-19 record. Even though it remains early in the 2024 campaign, it’s becoming more and more difficult to imagine the club returning to the ALCS for a ninth consecutive season without some changes. It’s possible that needed change could be coming today, when first base/outfield prospect Joey Loperfido will reportedly be called up prior to tonight’s game against the Guardians. Loperfido is off to a sizzling start at Triple-A, slashing .287/.393/.713 with a whopping 13 homers in 123 trips to the plate.

Loperfido likely isn’t the only prospect getting the call to the big leagues today. The Rockies are expected to call up top outfield prospect Jordan Beck prior to this evening’s game against the Marlins in Miami. The 23-year-old Beck has gotten off to a hot start of his own with a .307/.405/.594 slash line in 121 trips to the plate and figures to take the roster spot of outfielder Nolan Jones, who is likely to hit the injured list today. Beck will try to provide a spark for a struggling Rockies offense that ranks just bottom three in the majors with a 79 wRC+. Neither Beck nor Loperfido is currently on his club’s 40-man roster, meaning Houston and Colorado will both need to make a corresponding 40-man move to accommodate their incoming youngster.

2. Darvish to be activated:

The Padres are set to activate veteran right-hander Yu Darvish from the injured list to take on the Reds, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) last night. Darvish, 37, was placed on the IL two weeks ago due to tightness in his neck following a pair of difficult starts against the Cubs and Dodgers that saw him surrender a combined seven runs on five walks and eight hits in eight innings of work. Despite that pair of rough outings, Darvish has been solid overall this season with a 4.18 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 23 2/3 innings of work that have seen him strike out 21.8% of batters faced. The Padres will need to make a corresponding active roster move to accommodate Darvish’s return. The veteran righty will try to get back on track opposite former teammate Nick Martinez.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

The 2024 season is now in full swing, and some clubs have gotten off to surprisingly strong starts while a handful of others have unexpectedly struggled to open the year. If you have questions regarding your favorite club’s start to the campaign, or perhaps questions that look ahead to this summer’s trade deadline and the 2024-25 offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a live chat with readers today at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after it is completed.

Latest On A’s Stadium Plan

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The A’s have retained an investment banking firm in an effort to procure $500MM in private funding towards the construction of their Las Vegas ballpark, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. The A’s are prepared to offer minority ownership shares in the franchise to potential investors as they put together financing for their estimated $1.5 billion stadium.

Last summer, Nevada lawmakers approved $380MM in public funding — taking the form of state tax credits, county-issued bonds and a county credit — to offset a chunk of the cost. Shortly thereafter, MLB approved the A’s relocation efforts. A political action committee has sued the state in an effort to overturn the public funding law, but there’s no indication that’s currently a serious threat to the relocation.

Even with the public money in hand, the A’s are set to pay upwards of $1.1 billion in estimated construction costs. Shaikin notes the public funding law requires the A’s to present a specific financing plan for their balance. The organization is evidently looking for half a billion dollars in outside investment to meet those obligations.

While the financial specifics were previously unclear, dangling ownership shares to investors has long been the organization’s plan. Owner John Fisher told Howard Stutz of the Nevada Independent in January that he was considering selling minority stakes to Vegas-area investors. Fisher made clear in that interview that he and his family “would retain majority ownership and (continue to) oversee operations” of the franchise.

The A’s plan to complete construction on their 33,000-seat facility on the Vegas strip in time for the 2028 season. They’re playing their final year in Oakland before a three-year move to Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park between 2025-27.

Dodgers Notes: Brasier, Heyward, Buehler

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The Dodgers were dealt a minor hit to their bullpen this evening, as they placed Ryan Brasier on the 15-day injured list with a right calf strain. Gus Varland is back up from Triple-A Oklahoma City to take the open roster spot.

Brasier has gotten out to a bit of a slow start. He has allowed six runs over 11 2/3 innings, largely thanks to a trio of home runs. Brasier’s 12:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio remains solid, although his whiff rate and velocity are down from last season. It’s early enough in the year that the Dodgers presumably aren’t too concerned.

The veteran went from unheralded pickup to high-leverage arm late in 2023 thanks to a brilliant finish. After carrying a 7.29 ERA in 21 innings with the Red Sox, he posted a 0.70 mark over 38 2/3 frames in L.A. The Dodgers re-signed Brasier to a two-year, $9MM pact over the winter.

Manager Dave Roberts provided a couple additional updates before tonight’s game in Arizona. Jason Heyward has still yet to ramp up his activity nearly a month after landing on the injured list (X link via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). Roberts indicated Heyward’s recovery from lower back soreness has taken longer than the organization initially expected.

As with Brasier, Heyward went from buy-low free agent pickup to ket contributor. The veteran outfielder hit 15 homers with a .269/.340/.473 slash in 377 plate appearances as a platoon bat last season. Los Angeles brought him back early in the offseason via a one-year, $9MM deal. Heyward hasn’t had much of a chance to make an impact this year, as the back injury sent him to the IL after four games. The bottom of the order was initially a problem, but the immediate success of top prospect Andy Pages has stabilized right field over the last two weeks.

Dodger fans will also need to wait a little longer for Walker Buehler’s 2024 debut. The right-hander is going to make another start for Oklahoma City tomorrow, tweets Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. It’ll be his sixth rehab appearance. Buehler continues to build back after missing all of last season rehabbing his second career Tommy John procedure. He has shown some understandable rust, allowing 12 runs with nine walks in 16 2/3 innings.

Marlins Outright Kyle Tyler

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Marlins right-hander Kyle Tyler went unclaimed on waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville, per the transaction log at MLB.com. As a player who has been outrighted multiple times in his career, Tyler has the ability to choose minor league free agency.

The 27-year-old may nevertheless decide to stick with Miami. The Marlins have shuttled through a number of long relievers (i.e. Tyler, Kent Emanuel, Matt Andriese) as their bullpen has shouldered a heavy load in the season’s first few weeks. That gives pitchers on the fringes of the roster a few days of major league pay.

Tyler was selected onto the MLB club on April 20. He spent a week on the roster, appearing in one game. He tossed two innings of one-run ball in his first major league action since 2022. Tyler has pitched twice for Jacksonville, allowing four runs through five frames. He has struck out six while walking a pair. The Oklahoma product has tossed 44 1/3 innings over parts of three Triple-A seasons, pitching to a 5.68 ERA.

Jesús Luzardo Diagnosed With Mild Flexor Muscle Strain

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Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo has been diagnosed with a mild left flexor muscle strain, the club announced to members of the beat, including Isaac Azout of Fish on First. The team didn’t announce if this would impact his expected timeline.

Late last week, the lefty was scratched from his scheduled start and placed on the 15-day injured list due to left elbow tightness. That naturally led to some concern, as is always the case when a pitcher’s throwing arm is mentioned as part of an injury. On top of that, the Marlins had already seen their rotation hit hard by Tommy John surgery. Since Sandy Alcántara and Eury Pérez were already on the IL recovering from Tommy John surgeries, seeing Luzardo go down the same path would be another devastating blow.

Thankfully, it doesn’t seem as though anything like that is in the cards. Shortly after being placed on the IL, Luzardo said his IL placement was precautionary and that he felt he would only miss one or two starts, and there hasn’t yet been anything to suggest that plan isn’t possible. He played catch at the ballpark today, with some video relayed on X by Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. With his injury also reported as muscular in nature and not seemingly related to any ligament damage, that also perhaps suggests the worst fears have been avoided.

That’s undoubtedly good news for Luzardo and the Marlins, even if their season is going incredibly poorly. They are currently sporting a record of 6-23 and FanGraphs has their Playoff Odds down at 0.5%.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look earlier today at who the club might be looking to sell this summer, with Luzardo one of the most attractive pieces they could offer. He made 32 starts for the club last year with an earned run average of 3.58, striking out 28.1% of batters against a walk rate of just 7.4%. He stumbled out of the gate this year with a 6.58 ERA through five starts, but that’s a fairly small sample size and the injury could have plausibly played a role in that.

Luzardo is controllable for another two seasons after this one, so the Marlins certainly don’t have to trade him this summer. But non-rental pitchers are generally the most sought-after assets at the trade deadline. Given that ownership and the new front office under president of baseball operations Peter Bendix have seemingly been focused on overhauling the club’s farm system and player development apparatus, it stands to reason that they would have interested in selling Luzardo now. By waiting into future, his salary will rise via arbitration and his window of club control will shrink, thus reducing his value.

For Luzardo, he will obviously want to get healthy and back on the mound. Getting traded is always challenging but perhaps he would welcome the opportunity to join a competitive club for the final months of the season. On top of that, greater health and performance will help him increase his salary via arbitration in the coming seasons. He’s making $5.5MM this year and is slated for two more passes through the arb system.

Elsewhere on the roster, infielder Jake Burger is expected to start a rehab assignment in the coming days, per Azout on X. He was out of a bit of a slow start this year, hitting .228/.281/.421 through 16 games for a wRC+ of 92 before landing on the IL due to an oblique injury. But that performance may have been driven by a low batting average on balls in play, as his .233 mark so far this year has been well below average and his previous rate.

He had a breakout 34-homer campaign last year, split between the White Sox and Marlins after a midseason trade. He hit .250/.309/.518 on the year overall for a 120 wRC+. He’s not considered an especially strong defender but the lineup could use his bat. The team has a collective wRC+ of 73 so far this year, a mark that puts them ahead of just the White Sox. The club has been using Josh Bell, Emmanuel Rivera and Vidal Bruján to cover the infield corners lately, but none of that trio is hitting especially well, making it fairly easy for Burger to get back in the lineup once he’s healthy.

Angels Designate Aaron Hicks For Assignment, Select Cole Tucker

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The Angels announced a series of roster moves today, recalling right-hander Davis Daniel from Triple-A Salt Lake and selecting the contract of infielder Cole Tucker. In corresponding moves, they optioned right-hander Zac Kristofak to Salt Lake and designated outfielder Aaron Hicks for assignment.

Hicks, 34, was a pretty low risk pick-up for the Angels, at least from a financial perspective. His contract is still being paid by the Yankees, since they released him last year. The Angels added him to their roster but would only have to pay Hicks the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Yankees are paying.

There was a decent chance of them seeing a positive return on that investment, since Hicks seemed to bounce back with the Orioles last year. The O’s picked him up after the Yanks let him go, then Hicks went on to hit .275/.381/.425 in his time with Baltimore. That production translated to a wRC+ of 129 and Hicks also stole six bases in six tries.

But he’s looked far worse since donning an Angels uniform. Through 18 games this year, he’s produced an ugly line of .140/.222/.193 while striking out in 36.5% of his 63 plate appearances. His 9.5% walk rate is a bit above league average but below his career rate and even last year’s clip.

As Hicks has struggled, other outfielders have been in decent form. Both Mike Trout and Taylor Ward have been healthy and productive so far this season, while Jo Adell seems to finally be enjoying his long-awaited breakout.

Adell, 25, was selected 10th overall in 2017 and was a top 100 prospect on his way up the minor league ladder, but he struggled badly with strikeouts in his attempts to establish himself in the big leagues. He got sporadic playing time in the majors from 2020 to 2023 but was punched out in 35.4% of his plate appearances while hitting .214/.259/.366. This year, however, he’s hit .327/.382/.592 so far for a wRC+ of 174. Some regression is certainly forthcoming since he won’t be able to maintain a .382 batting average on balls in play, but he’s only striking out at a 23.6% clip so far this year.

The Angels are seemingly going to ride the hot hand and go with Adell next to Ward and Trout. Mickey Moniak is hitting a dismal .143/.200/.214 on the year but his .189 BABIP will surely come up over time. He’s striking out 30% of the time but that’s actually an improvement over last year’s 35% rate, when he rode a .389 BABIP to a line of .280/.307/.495. Since he’s younger than Hicks and comes with three additional years of cheap control, in addition to being out of options, he will hang onto the fourth outfielder job while Hicks is bumped off the roster.

By getting rid of Hicks, the Angels will add to their infield by selecting Tucker. Anthony Rendon and Michael Stefanic are on the injured list while Brandon Drury and Miguel Sanó have each missed a few games due to minor injuries in the past week. Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto and Luis Rengifo have been the club’s three healthy infielders getting regular playing time, while Ehire Adrianza has picked up some playing time with Drury and Sanó banged up.

Coming into the season, the 27-year-old Tucker was in a similar position as Adell, a former first-round pick who hadn’t lived up to the hype. Selected 24th overall by the Pirates in 2014, Tucker has a batting line of just .216/.266/.318 in 479 major league plate appearances, scattered over the past five seasons.

He signed a minor league deal with the Mariners back in January but was granted his release back in March. He tells reporters today, including Sam Blum of The Athletic and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com, that the Mariners offered him a coaching position after he was reassigned to minor league camp. But he wasn’t ready to quit playing yet and secured a minor league deal with the Angels.

He reported to the club’s Triple-A squad in Salt Lake and has been in great form of late. He’s made 42 plate appearances over 10 games, drawing eight walks and striking out nine times for rates of 19% and 21.4%, respectively. His .313/.439/.469 batting line translates to a wRC+ of 132, even in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

That’s a fairly small sample size relative to Tucker’s larger career struggles. In addition to his aforementioned major league work, he hit a tepid .243/.350/.363 in the minors over the 2021 to 2023 period. Regardless of his offensive abilities, Tucker can provide the Angels with some cover all over the diamond. He has played all four infield positions in his career and spent some time in the outfield as well. As mentioned, the club has various moving parts with the infield injuries, so Tucker can bounce around as needed.

He is out of options and will have to stick on the active roster or else be removed from the 40-man entirely if he gets squeezed from the club’s plans down the road. But if he manages to have a long-awaited breakout like Adell, he can be controlled for many seasons beyond this season since he has just over two years of major league service time.

The Angels will have a week to trade Hicks or pass him through waivers. He has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining the remainder of his contract, which runs through 2025. Any club willing to give him a roster spot would be in the same spot as the Angels just were, only having to pay the prorated league minimum with the Yanks on the hook for the rest.

Alex Bregman’s Slow Start Could Cost Him Millions

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Both the Astros and Alex Bregman are off to slow starts in 2024. There’s still lots of time left in the season for things to change, both for the club and for the player. But Bregman is set to be one of the top free agents available this winter and his slow start could have a significant impact on his earning power.

Bregman, 30, has appeared in 25 games this year and taken 108 trips to the plate. He remains tough to strike out, as his 12% clip is a match for last year’s rate and close to his career average. His 9.3% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 8.6% league average but well below Bregman’s previous form, as he drew free passes in 13.8% of his plate appearances from 2018 to 2023.

When he has put the bat on the ball, he hasn’t been able to do damage. Most notably, he has yet to hit a home run this season. He has just 21 hits, with his five doubles being the only knocks of the extra-base variety. His batting line for the year is .216/.287/.268, which translates to a wRC+ of 65, indicating he’s been 35% worse than league average. His .247 batting average on balls in play is below average and below his career rate, but his barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also down relative to his career marks.

As mentioned, there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around, since we’re not even in the month of May yet. Bregman has been here before. The slump is not without precedent. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his .555 OPS this year is the seventh-worst of any 25-game stretch of his career. The six worse stretches all had a winter’s gap, as they each go from the end of 2022 to the start of 2023. That means Bregman is technically in the worst single-season slump of his career, but he also had a .558 OPS across May and June of 2022, not far off from his current woes.

Given that he’s had a tailspin like this before, it seems fair to expect him to pull out of it. However, that doesn’t mean teams won’t use it against him in free agency. As we just saw in the winter, clubs are quite willing to wave any red flags they can get their hands on if it helps their bargaining position.

Cody Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 for the Cubs last year and seemed poised for a huge payday, especially when also factoring in his 20 stolen bases and center field defense. But his mega contract never arrived, perhaps due to health concerns or perhaps due to his Statcast data being on the weak side. He was notoriously poor over 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery, and his 2023 bounceback season still saw him go on the injured list. While the end-of-season results were strong, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile of qualified league hitters while his hard hit rate was in the 10th.

On the other end of the spectrum was Matt Chapman, who had strong Statcast metrics but tepid results. Chapman’s exit velocity and hard hit rate were among the best in the league, finishing in the 98th and 100th percentile, respectively. But he hit .240/.330/.424 on the year overall, 110 wRC+, and in rather uneven fashion. As many pointed out, he hit .384/.465/.687 in April but then .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. That framing ignores the fact that Chapman was still good in July and got hurt in August, which may have made his post-April stats look worse than they were, but it may not have mattered.

When MLBTR previewed the upcoming free agent class, which is linked above, it was mentioned that a seven- or eight-year deal north of $200MM was a possibility for Bregman. Flawed-but-talented players have certainly gone over that line before, with Xander Bogaerts and Anthony Rendon some of the recent examples. The expectation of the industry was that players like Bellinger and Chapman could get nine-figure deals despite their own issues, but that’s not how it played out. Each had to settle for a three-year deal with opt-outs, hoping that continued strong performance could lead to a better deal down the road.

Bregman has plenty of attributes that he and his reps can point to. Injuries have not been a major factor for him, as he has played at least 155 games in five of the past six full seasons. His strikeout and walk rates are both consistently better than average, while his third base defense is rated well. The elite offense he showed in 2018 and 2019 might be gone, but he hit .261/.364/.447 over 2022 and 2023 for a 131 wRC+.

But his struggles this year could be used against him, even if they don’t last all year, which could be tricky for Bregman. Back in March of 2019, he signed a $100MM extension with the club which locked in some big money for him but also gave the club two years of extra control. That means that despite debuting in the big leagues at the age of 22, he’ll be going into free agency ahead of his age-31 season.

It seems fair to assume that Bregman and his representatives at the Boras Corporation would prefer to lock in as much money as they can this winter. Boras clients have pivoted to short-term deals when necessary, but Bregman’s age make that undesirable, as it will be harder for him to increase his earning power as he moves deeper into his 30s. He and the Astros have had some on-and-off talks about another extension in recent years, but the fact that nothing has come together yet perhaps suggests that he has been holding out for something big this winter.

The Astros under owner Jim Crane have been averse to lengthy contracts, having never gone longer than six years. Even the six-year extensions they did agree to were for much younger players. Jose Altuve got a six-year deal which started with his age-29 season while Yordan Alvarez got one starting for his age-26 campaign. However, they did just sign another extension with Altuve, a five-year pact that covers his age-35 through age-39 seasons, so it’s not as though going deep into a player’s 30s is completely off the table.

Perhaps Bregman can finish the season strong and the market conditions will eventually work in his favor. This past offseason, it seems like factors such as dwindling TV revenue and the competitive balance tax had negative impacts on free agents. It’s possible to imagine a correction this winter. Perhaps the Mets will be looking to get more aggressive after being relatively quiet. Maybe the new owner of the Orioles looks to make a headline-grabbing deal. Maybe the Red Sox come out swinging after some positive player development in 2024.

But even if those stars do align, those clubs will have other options, such as 26-year-old hitting savant Juan Soto, bona fide ace Corbin Burnes, consistent power threat Pete Alonso or everyday shortstop Willy Adames.

Even the teams looking to make a big splash next winter might not have Bregman atop their list as a 31-year-old third baseman who has been quite good but not necessarily elite in recent years. The longer this slump continues, the more they can use it as a bargaining tactic. Bregman and Boras surely noticed what happened to Bellinger, Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who all had to lower their demands as the recent offseason slouched along. Even Snell’s Cy Young season couldn’t wash away concerns about his previous low points.

One thing that could work in Bregman’s favor is if the Astros keep struggling and he winds up traded at the deadline, which would make him ineligible for a qualifying offer. But Montgomery didn’t have a QO attached to him this past winter and that didn’t seem to matter much. Bregman and the Boras team are undoubtedly aware that there’s a wide range of outcomes for his free agency, making the next few months all the more important.

Twins Notes: Correa, Martin, Duran, Sands

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The Twins announced Monday that they’ve reinstated shortstop Carlos Correa from the 10-day injured list. Infielder/outfielder Austin Martin was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move. Correa wound up missing just over two weeks with what was originally announced a a likely oblique strain but was reclassified as a more mild intercostal strain after he underwent an MRI.

It’s a boon for an already-surging Twins lineup that has rattled off seven straight wins. Strength of schedule has been a big part of that, as the Twins are coming off sweeps of the White Sox and Angels (and are now in Chicago for another three-game set against the South Siders). Correa hit .306/.432/.444 with a homer and two doubles in 44 trips to the plate before sustaining the injury. He’ll reclaim his everyday shortstop role and a slot near the heart of the Twins’ batting order.

Correa’s return brings an end to the first big league stint for the 25-year-old Martin, who handled himself well for a couple weeks before falling into a 3-for-21 slump that dragged his batting line down to .226/.294/.371. The former No. 5 overall pick showed strong contact skills (17.6% strikeout rate) and defensive versatility with time at each of second base, left field and center field.

Martin is in the first of three option years and figures to be back in the big leagues before too long. He’s outplayed struggling veterans Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot, but both have lengthy track records that will earn them some more leash to right the ship. Jettisoning either instead of Martin would surely have depleted the organization’s depth, as both could reject minor league assignments and become free agents once their contracts cleared waivers.

Correa isn’t the only key piece expected to return to the Twins before long. Closer Jhoan Duran has made a pair of rehab outings in St. Paul and was sharp in his most recent one. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that Minnesota’s flamethrowing righty tossed a clean inning with two strikeouts and induced whiffs on six of eight swings against him Saturday, topping out at 102.9 mph with his heater.

Duran, 26, has established himself as one of the game’s premier relievers since debuting in 2022. He’s been on the injured list all season due to an oblique strain but touts a 2.15 ERA 33.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 63.4% ground-ball rate in 130 big league innings. He’s saved 35 games for the Twins and picked up another 19 holds since cracking the Opening Day roster as a rookie back in ’22.

Duran’s return will only strengthen a Minnesota bullpen that ranks third in MLB with a 2.62 earned run average. Twins relievers are also second in strikeout rate at 29.8%, 12th in walk rate at 9.2%, fourth in FIP at 3.40 and second in SIERA at 2.98. Former starter Cole Sands has been a big part of that, turning in 13 1/3 innings (second among Twins relievers) with a 1.35 ERA, 36.5% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate.

It’s an incredible turnaround for Sands, who entered the year with a 4.99 ERA in 52 1/3 big league frames. He’s seen his average fastball climb from 93.7 mph last year to 95 mph in 2024, and his newly implemented cutter has been excellent. Opponents don’t yet have a hit against Sands’ four-seamer this season.

Sands’ success, history as a starter and the current state of the rotation — Anthony DeSclafani out for the season, Louie Varland optioned to Triple-A after struggling — prompted Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic to ask president of baseball ops Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli about the possibility of stretching Sands back out as a starter. Neither wholly discounted the possibility, though Falvey noted how well Sands has been pitching in a relief capacity and emphasized that if things reach that point, the Twins will need to “do it thoughtfully” because midseason role changes can be particularly tricky.

As things stand, the Twins are going with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and rookie Simeon Woods Richardson in the rotation. Ober and Paddack have each had one nightmare start where they were tagged for eight runs but have been otherwise sharp. Woods Richardson has made just two starts but flashed improved velocity while holding the Tigers and White Sox to a combined three runs in 11 innings with an 11-to-2 K/BB ratio.

The Twins are without DeSclafani and minor league lefty Brent Headrick, their likely next man up on the rotation depth chart, as he’s on the minor league 60-day IL due to a forearm strain. Further injuries could push them to more strongly consider a starting role for Sands, but Minnesota could also look outside the organization at some point if the depth continues to be tested. Falvey downplayed that possibility to Gleeman, but it’s worth mentioning that the Twins went that route with Dallas Keuchel last year and wound up getting six starts out of him down the stretch.

Who Could The Marlins Trade This Summer?

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A team can’t cement a playoff spot in April, but they can certainly play their way out of the mix. Such is the case with the Marlins. Miami blew a 7-0 lead against the Nationals yesterday to fall to an MLB-worst 6-23 start. Whatever slim hope they had of competing for a playoff spot entering the season is gone. They’re going to be deadline sellers. It’s just a matter of when they start moving players and who will go.

New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix figures to be broadly open to dealing anyone beyond Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, both of whom are rehabbing Tommy John surgeries anyhow. Much of the roster was assembled before he was hired last November, so he probably doesn’t have a ton of attachment to this group.

Bendix also joined Miami after a long stint with the Rays, a front office that was never afraid to move established players as they navigated payroll limitations. Tampa Bay occasionally made key deals at atypical times on the schedule, including trading Austin Meadows just before Opening Day in 2022 and swapping Willy Adames for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen the previous May.

The Fish are more likely to deal some players than others, of course, so let’s run through a few of the top possibilities:

Trevor Rogers

Rogers was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. He was ineffective in 2022 and limited to four starts last season by injury. The 6’5″ southpaw is one of the rare Miami pitchers who hasn’t been impacted by health concerns early this year. Rogers isn’t back to his early-career peak, but he has looked the part of a capable mid-rotation arm through five starts. He owns a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.

The former first-rounder’s velocity is sitting around 92 MPH — down from the 94-95 he was pumping as a rookie — and his strikeout rate sits at a personal-low 20.6%. He’s getting ground-balls at a near-52% clip, though, and he’s done a solid job throwing strikes. Even if Rogers might not be the top-end arm he seemed three years ago, he’s an affordable mid-rotation starter who is under arbitration control for two seasons beyond this one. He’s making just $1.53MM this year, as the injuries prevented him from building much of a résumé going into his arb window.

Jesús Luzardo

Entering the season, Luzardo was the left-hander more teams were probably monitoring. He could certainly still be a coveted deadline target, but he’ll need to rebound from a rough couple weeks. Luzardo has been rocked for a 6.58 ERA with elevated walk and home run rates through his first 26 innings. He went on the 15-day injured list late last week with elbow tightness. It’s still not clear how serious that is.

If Luzardo returns to health and looks more like his 2023 self, he’d be one of the top upside plays on the market. He was an upper mid-rotation starter last season, turning in 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball. Luzardo’s fastball velocity was sitting in its customary 97 MPH range before he went on the IL and he continued to miss plenty of bats. He and the Fish agreed to a $5.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. Like Rogers, he’s under team control for two more years.

Braxton Garrett

Garrett, 26, was a quietly effective rotation piece a year ago. The control artist turned in his second straight sub-4.00 ERA showing over 159 2/3 frames. He fanned an above-average 23.7% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground nearly half the time batters made contact.

The former #7 overall pick hasn’t pitched in the majors in 2024. He opened the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He had a brief setback when he experienced dead arm after a throwing session, but it’s not believed to be serious. He threw three innings in a rehab start last Friday. Garrett is making around the league minimum and will be go through arbitration four times after this season. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, but he misses bats with his offspeed stuff and has a career 3.86 ERA with peripherals to match. The Fish should get plenty of calls on him in July if he’s healthy.

Edward Cabrera

Cabrera rounds out the quartet of potentially desirable rotation pieces. He may be the hardest of the group to evaluate. The former top prospect has huge stuff. His fastball sits in the high-90s. Cabrera can miss bats and generate plenty of grounders with all three of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider). At 26, it’s still not out of the question that he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yet the Dominican-born righty has never thrown 100 innings in a major league season (although he fell one out shy of that arbitrary cutoff last year). That’s partially because he has a few arm-related injured list stints, including a two-week stay to open this season resulting from a shoulder impingement. He’s also nearly as wild a starter as there is in MLB. Cabrera walked 15.2% of batters faced last year and has issued free passes at a near-14% clip in his big league career.

The Marlins won’t feel obligated to move Cabrera for whatever they can get. He’s under control for four years after this, though he’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. The Fish considered trade possibilities over the offseason, so he’s unlikely to be off the table, but a team will need to meet a lofty asking price.

Luis Arraez

Of Miami’s hitters, Arraez is the biggest name. A defending two-time batting champ, he’s probably the best pure contact hitter in the sport. His .305 average through his first 129 plate appearances would be the second-lowest of his career. Arraez is going to reach base at a high clip, but he offers minimal power — career-high 10 homers, zero in 2024 — and plays a well below-average second base.

Arraez will still draw interest, but his trade value isn’t as high as one might assume based solely on the batting average. In addition to his defensive limitations, his control window is shrinking. Arraez is playing this season on a $10.6MM salary and will go through the arbitration process once more before getting to free agency. He’d likely earn something in the $13-15MM range next season, which could motivate the Marlins to deal him this summer.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm hasn’t quite developed into the franchise player that he seemed he might become early in his career. He has been a solid regular with flashes beyond that, though. The switch-hitter connected on 19 homers and stole 22 bases in just 97 games last season, albeit with a modest .304 on-base percentage. He has dramatically increased his walk rate in the early going this year, running a .245/.342/.382 slash through his first 117 plate appearances.

Injuries have been a recurring problem. Chisholm missed a good portion of 2022 to a back issue. He lost chunks of the ’23 campaign with toe and oblique woes. If he stays healthy through this season’s first half, Chisholm could be one of the more intriguing trade candidates of deadline season. He has a tantalizing power/speed combination and can play center field, albeit with differing reviews from public metrics on his glove. Chisholm is making $2.65MM this year and has two more seasons of arbitration control.

Lefty Relief Trio

Each of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi could be attractive left-handed relief options. They’ve all been hit hard in the early going but have high-octane stuff and performed well last season. The Marlins unsuccessfully auditioned Puk in the rotation but will move him back to relief once he recovers from shoulder fatigue.

Nardi is the least well-known of the group, but he’s controllable for four-plus seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. He has a career strikeout rate north of 30% in 83 2/3 innings. Scott is an impending free agent who has worked the ninth inning for Miami over the last couple seasons. He hasn’t been able to find the strike zone this year, a disappointing start after he issued walks at a career-low 7.8% clip in 2023. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM salary. Puk is making $1.8MM and will go through arbitration twice more.

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A few others could draw attention, although they’re probably less likely than the players listed above to move. Many teams would love to land Max Meyer, but it’d take a Godfather offer for the Marlins to move him.

Ryan Weathers leads the team in innings thus far. He’s a former top 10 pick who has pushed his average fastball to 96 MPH and is getting plenty of whiffs on his breaking ball. It’s conceivable teams could have interest, but Weathers has a career 5.67 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Anthony Bender has returned from Tommy John surgery to post excellent strikeout and walk rates through his first 11 innings. His ERA is atrocious because of an elevated average on balls in play, but that should normalize well before the deadline.

The Marlins aren’t likely to find a taker for any portion of the Avisaíl García contract. That’d also be the case for Josh Bell unless he has a dramatic turnaround at the plate. He’s hitting .176/.270/.287 and playing on a $16.5MM salary. Neither Nick Fortes nor Christian Bethancourt has contributed anything offensively.

The Fish took a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson over the offseason. That was likely with an eye towards a midseason trade, but he’s out to a .223/.270/.255 start after hitting .245/.286/.296 in his final year with the White Sox. He’ll need to perform significantly better to draw any kind of interest. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger are low-OBP corner bats. They’d each have modest value if the Marlins wanted to deal them.

Yankees Recall Carlos Narváez For MLB Debut

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The Yankees announced today that outfielder Alex Verdugo has been placed on the paternity list. Catcher Carlos Narváez was recalled in a corresponding move. The backstop will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Narváez, 25, was initially signed by the Yankees as an amateur out of Venezuela. He has since climbed the rungs of the minor league ladder, going down on strikes a fair bit but also drawing a fair number of walks and launching a few home runs.

He got into 100 games last year between Double-A and Triple-A, stepping to the plate 419 times. He struck out in 25.8% of those trips but also walked in 15.3% of them and hit 12 long balls. That resulted in a combined slash line of .239/.370/.397, good for a wRC+ of 101.

At the end of last year, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked Narváez as the #32 prospect in the club’s system. He noted that the strikeouts will probably become too much of a problem for the backstop to be an impact hitter in the majors, as he’s especially vulnerable to high fastballs. However, Longenhagen gives praise to Narváez for his strength with controlling the running game and “fair” work in terms of receiving and blocking.

The Yanks added Narváez to their 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They haven’t needed his services at the major league level with Jose Trevino and Austin Wells sharing the catching duties. Narváez has also seen some limited time at the infield corners, which could give him more opportunity to get into a game before Verdugo comes back. He’s currently hitting .211/.376/.342 at Triple-A this year, walking in 18.8% of his plate appearances.

Paternity list stints have a maximum length of three days, though players sometimes get transferred to the restricted list if they need to stay with their families for a bit longer. With Verdugo gone, the Yanks still have plenty of ability to cover the outfield between Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton, Taylor Trammell and Jahmai Jones.

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