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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skenes, Soto, Mets, White Sox

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Today's mailbag digs into what a Paul Skenes extension could look like, whether the Yankees will extend Juan Soto, how the Mets move forward, who the White Sox should trade, and much more.  Let's get to it!

Scott asks:

If you’re Paul Skenes, what do the Pirates need to offer to convince you to sign an extension?

I happened to catch Skenes' Wrigley Field start in-person with my kids, and it was awesome.  There is a type of guy who replies to any Paul Skenes accomplishment with "When's the Tommy John scheduled?", and I really don't want to align with those guys.  He's healthy and incredible right now - just enjoy it without the doomsaying.

That said, there should be an army of nerds at Paul Skenes' agency doing pitcher actuarial type stuff in the event the Pirates come with an extension offer or already have.  And the basic fact is that a list of the game's hardest-throwing starting pitchers doubles as a graveyard of injuries.

So OK, Skenes' injury risk is high simply because he's a starting pitcher, and it's even higher because he's the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in baseball.  That should be built into any contract offer.  But while injuries may be up, his risk is not all that different from a pitcher five years ago.

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Royals Release Zach Davies

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The Royals have released veteran right-hander Zach Davies from his minor league contract, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. He’s pitched decently with Triple-A Omaha while the major league rotation has been a strength in Kansas City, so it’s possible Davies had a mid-May out clause in his minor league pact.

Davies, 31, signed with Kansas City back on April 8. He’d spent spring training with the Nationals but allowed 14 earned runs in 14 innings over four starts and was cut loose. To some extent, he’s turned things around in Omaha, logging 21 innings (five starts) with a 4.29 ERA. A 12.9% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate combine to create skepticism about Davies’ work with the Royals’ top affiliate. He’s never been one to miss many bats, but those rates are subpar even by his own modest standards.

In 1048 1/3 big league innings, Davies carries a 4.36 ERA (4.48 FIP, 4.80 SIERA). He had a particularly strong run with the Brewers and Padres from 2015-20, posting a 3.79 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 683 2/3 innings. Things have gone awry since then.

While Davies pitched more or less in line with his career norms in a 2022 season with the D-backs, that solid campaign was bookended by disastrous showings: a 5.78 ERA in 32 starts for the Cubs in ’21 as well as a 7.00 ERA in 18 starts with the ’23 D-backs. Overall, Davies’ last three seasons have resulted in a combined 5.43 ERA. An apparent dip in his command has been the main culprit; Davies had a 6.9% walk rate from ’15-’20 but has seen that number spike to 10.3% since. He’s also become far more homer-prone, suggesting some imprecision even within the strike zone.

At the moment, Royals starters rank fourth in the majors with a 3.09 ERA and trail only the Phillies for the MLB lead in innings pitched. The quintet of Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Alec Marsh has provided Kansas City with the sort of starting pitching stability the club has lacked for years. Those five have started all but two of the team’s games this season. Daniel Lynch IV and Jonathan Bowlan each got one start while Marsh was on the 15-day IL with an elbow contusion he sustained when hit by a comebacker. He’s since returned from that brief IL stay.

With that strong output from the big league staff, there was no obvious path to the big leagues for Davies in Kansas City. However, with so many pitching injuries popping up around the sport, he’ll likely draw interest from other clubs seeking to deepen their rotation group. The Red Sox, Rays, Rockies, Marlins and Davies’ former Brewers club all have multiple starters of note on the injured list, for instance.

Rangers Sign Nabil Crismatt To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have signed right-hander Nabil Crismatt to a minor league deal, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News on X. The righty will report to Triple-A Round Rock in the coming days.

Crismatt, 29, returned to free agency earlier this week. He has bounced on and off the Dodgers’ roster a couple of times this year. He signed a minor league deal with that club in the winter and was added to the roster in late March. He pitched in one game before being designated for assignment and accepting an outright. He was selected again in late April and made four more appearances before losing his roster spot yet again.

Around those transactions, the results in his small sample of work have been decent. Crismatt has allowed two earned runs in seven major league innings so far this year, striking out six opponents without issuing a walk. His 12 2/3 Triple-A innings this year have produced a 5.68 ERA, though with some positive signs. He has struck out 28.8% of batters at that level with no walks given out. The high ERA is on account of three home runs surrendered, a 55.6% strand rate and .353 batting average on balls in play.

He had a frustrating 2023 season but was in good form in the two seasons prior to that. Last year, a hip strain cost him a couple of months of the season and he struggled when on the mound. He had an 8.31 ERA in 13 MLB innings as well as a 6.86 ERA in 59 Triple-A innings.

He spent 2021 and 2022 as a long reliever with the Padres. He threw 148 2/3 innings over 95 appearances with a 3.39 ERA. His 21.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate were close to average but he got ground balls at a strong clip of 50.6%.

The Dodgers frequently churn players through the final spots of their bullpen, which has put Crismatt on the transaction logs a few times. This time, he’ll switch organizations and see if he can carve out a role in Arlington. The Rangers currently have ten pitchers on the injured list, though Dane Dunning is expected to come off the IL and start today’s game. That will still leave them with Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Cody Bradford, Nathan Eovaldi, Brock Burke, Carson Coleman, Austin Pruitt and Josh Sborz on the shelf.

Crismatt has some decent numbers this year and also has the impressive track record during his time with the Padres. If the Rangers need a fresh arm at some point in the coming weeks, perhaps Crismatt will get the call. If he does so, he’s out of options but also has less than three years of major league service time, meaning he could be retained beyond this season if he holds a roster spot at the end of the year.

The Opener: Gray, Diamondbacks, Pitchers’ Duel

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On the heels of some overnight transaction news, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today…

1. Gray to undergo MRI:

Rangers right-hander Jon Gray is set to undergo an MRI exam after departing yesterday’s game prior to the sixth inning due to a bout of groin tightness. As noted by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Gray told reporters last night that he does not expect to miss a start, though the MRI suggests that the Rangers have at least some level of concern. Being cautious with Gray makes plenty of sense for the Rangers, as the 32-year-old righty has essentially emerged as the club’s ace with Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Nathan Eovaldi all on the injured list.

In ten appearances, Gray sports a sterling 2.08 ERA (188 ERA+) with a 2.46 FIP and a solid 24.1% strikeout rate. That sort of production in the rotation would be difficult to replace if Gray required a trip to the IL himself, even as the Rangers are set to activated righty Dane Dunning today to start tonight’s game against the Phillies.

2. Roster move coming and hit streak to watch in Arizona:

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic) last night that a roster move is coming for the club today. Lovullo did not get into specific details regarding the impending move, although he did note that it’s “possible” the club opt for a bullpen game this evening against the Dodgers. Tonight’s start had previously been slated to be taken by right-hander Ryne Nelson, who has a brutal 7.06 ERA through seven starts this season despite a decent 4.17 FIP.

If Arizona does opt for a bullpen game, it’s not clear if that would indicate that Nelson is being removed from the roster or simply having his start pushed back. Among the hurlers who could potentially be slated to join the roster, lefties Brandon Hughes and Andrew Saalfrank as well as righty Cristian Mena have all pitched fairly well at Triple-A this season and are currently on the 40-man roster, while lefty Blake Walston could be a multi-inning relief option for the club who is also on the 40-man.

While the D-backs’ rotation is a source of intrigue at the moment, so is the hitting streak of their star second baseman. Ketel Marte went 1-for-5 last night to push his MLB-best hit streak to 20 straight games. It’s one of the least conventional hit streaks you’ll see, as Marte has only two multi-hit games over the course of this 20-game run. His .262/.300/.523 slash during this run is strong (123 wRC+) but also not quite the blistering production one might expect from someone on such a good run. In fact, he posted better rate stats in 28 games before his hitting streak than he has over the course of the streak (thanks in large part to a pair of four-hit games and a trio of three-hit showings). Marte will have one of his toughest tests of the streak thus far when he faces off against Dodgers righty Tyler Glasnow.

3. Young lefties square off in Kansas City:

Two of the AL Central’s most impressive young arms are set to face off in a pitchers’ duel later today as Royals lefty Cole Ragans takes on Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. Ragans, 26, dominated to a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts with the Royals down the stretch last year after being acquired from the Rangers. This year’s 3.70 ERA doesn’t quite stack up to that level, but the lefty sports an excellent 2.58 FIP thanks in part to an excellent 27.6% strikeout rate  and improved 7.8% walk rate.

Ragans is facing a tough assignment, as Skubal has been among the very best pitchers in the big leagues this year. The 27-year-old has been nothing short of dominant through nine starts this season, with a 1.80 ERA and an MLB-best 1.95 FIP in 55 innings of work. Skubal has struck out 31.6% of batters faced this season while walking a microscopic 3.5%. The two youngsters are set to face off this afternoon, with first pitch scheduled for 1:10pm local time.

Rays To Designate Erasmo Ramirez For Assignment

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The Rays are expected to designated right-hander Erasmo Ramirez for assignment, per a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times last night. Ramirez’s departure is set to be the corresponding move for the return of righty Ryan Pepiot from the 15-day injured list ahead of his scheduled start against the Red Sox tonight.

Ramirez, 32, is a veteran of 13 MLB seasons who first made his big league debut back in 2012 as a member of the Mariners. From 2012-18 Ramirez split his time between the starting rotation and the bullpen in both Seattle and Tampa, pitching to a slightly below average 4.36 ERA with a 4.54 FIP across 192 appearances in that seven year stretch, 92 of which were starts. Ramirez posted a 6.7% walk rate during that time while generating grounders at a solid 44.4% clip, but he struck out just 18.5% of batters faced while allowing a hefty 13.8% of his fly balls to leave the yard for home runs. Ramirez’s final season with the Mariners in 2018 was a particularly difficult one, as he was torched to the tune of a 6.50 ERA in ten starts with the club.

Those difficulties led Ramirez to bounce around the league, making brief appearances in Boston, Queens, and Detroit over the next three seasons before finally returning to a regular role with the Nationals in 2022. Ramirez took to the nation’s capital quite well as he posted a strong 2.92 ERA in 86 2/3 innings of work that came almost exclusively out of the bullpen. While the righty’s strikeout rate of 17.6% remained below average, he allowed free passes to just 4% of batters that season while seeing his groundball rate tick up to 45.2%. The showing was enough for the Nationals to sign him to a one-year big league deal worth $1MM for the 2023 campaign, assuring him of a spot in the club’s bullpen entering Spring Training.

Unfortunately, the decision to retain Ramirez didn’t work out, as his peripherals regressed slightly in all areas during the 2023 campaign. Those dips in underlying performance combined with an unusually low 62.2% strand rate left Ramirez’s results on the field to swing from well above average to well below as he allowed a 6.41 ERA with a 5.05 FIP in 60 1/3 innings of work split between the Nationals and the Rays, the latter of whom signed the righty to a minor league deal midseason after he was released by Washington.

Ramirez continued his second stint in Tampa by re-signing with the club on a minor league deal this past offseason and was selected to the roster in mid-April, but the 34-year-old has looked unimpressive in ten appearances. He’s allowed a 4.20 ERA with a whopping 6.08 in 15 innings of work while striking out just 13.6% of batters faced, walking an elevated 9.1%, and generating groundballs just 38.1% of the time. Once Ramirez is officially DFA’d, the Rays will have one week to either trade Ramirez or attempt to pass him through waivers, although the righty has more than enough service time to reject outright waivers and test free agency should he go unclaimed.

Cubs Moving Kyle Hendricks To Bullpen

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The Cubs are moving Kyle Hendricks to the bullpen for the time being, manager Craig Counsell told the team’s beat (X link via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). Counsell indicated the team is hopeful that the veteran right-hander will be able to move back to the rotation in the future, but he’ll first need to improve his results.

Hendricks has been a starting pitcher for his entire career. For the first seven years of his MLB tenure, he was an unconventional top-of-the-rotation arm. Hendricks’ pristine command and ability to keep the ball on the ground more than overcame middling velocity and strikeout totals. He won the ERA title during Chicago’s curse-breaking 2016 season and picked up a pair of top 10 finishes in Cy Young balloting.

Things haven’t gone as smoothly over the last three and a half years. Hendricks posted a near-5.00 ERA in both 2021 and ’22. He returned from a capsule tear in his shoulder to turn in a 3.74 ERA over 24 starts a year ago. That convinced the Cubs to trigger a $16.5MM option for this season. While it wasn’t a particularly surprising move at the time, that’s a decision the front office surely wishes it could have back.

Opposing lineups have teed off on Hendricks through his first seven starts of 2024. He has allowed 37 runs over 30 2/3 innings. Hendricks has conceded 10 home runs and has a career-low 7.7% swinging strike rate. His 48.2% grounder percentage and 7.3% walk rate are each respectable, but opponents have put together a massive .362/.411/.638 slash line over 151 plate appearances.

A lower back issue sent Hendricks to the injured list at the end of April. Following a three-week absence, he returned to start a pair of games against the Pirates. Hendricks tossed five innings of one-run ball in his first outing back but was tagged for eight runs in 4 2/3 frames last week. Counsell acknowledged after the game that the Cubs needed better production from that rotation spot.

They’ll try to patch that together for the time being. The Cubs are planning a bullpen game on Thursday against the Braves in what would have been Hendricks’ spot. They’ll eventually need to settle on a fifth starter behind a strong front four of Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad. Righties Ben Brown and Hayden Wesneski are capable of logging multiple innings, and the Cubs could welcome back left-hander Jordan Wicks before too long.

A forearm strain sent Wicks to the injured list on April 28. Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune tweets that the former first-round pick will soon head on a rehab assignment after getting through a bullpen session this afternoon. While Wicks had a 4.70 ERA through his first five starts, a strong 25.9% strikeout rate offers reason for optimism that he can manage better results after being reinstated.

The injury news wasn’t all positive. Montemurro adds that reliever Adbert Alzolay is headed for a second opinion after being diagnosed with a flexor strain last week. Alzolay saved 22 games with a 2.67 ERA over 64 innings a year ago. He has had a much tougher start to the 2024 campaign, allowing 13 runs (nine earned) over 17 1/3 frames.

Josh James Signs With Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks

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Josh James signed with the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League, according to the league’s transaction log. The right-hander became a free agent when he was released from a minor league deal with the Cardinals last week.

James, 31, spent his limited time in the St. Louis organization at Triple-A Memphis. He walked 15 of the 51 hitters he faced. Putting on free baserunners at that rate isn’t tenable, and James was rocked for 18 runs in 7 2/3 innings. He’ll need to demonstrate he can find the strike zone with the Ducks to pitch his way back to affiliated ball.

A former 34th-round pick by the Astros, James had a promising first two seasons in Houston. He worked 23 innings of 2.35 ERA ball as a rookie back in 2018. While his 4.70 mark across 61 1/3 frames the following year wasn’t as impressive, James punched out almost 38% of his opponents. He looked like a potential high-octane relief arm before his control evaporated. He walked more than one-fifth of hitters during the shortened season and has barely pitched in the majors since then.

Various injuries cost James most of the 2021-23 campaigns. He battled hip, hamstring and lat problems before undergoing flexor surgery at the tail end of the ’22 season. Houston non-tendered him that winter. James sat out all of last season before beginning his short-lived stint with the Cardinals this past January.

White Sox To Add Nick Nastrini To Rotation

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The White Sox will install Nick Nastrini back into their rotation, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times (X link). Manager Pedro Grifol confirmed after tonight’s win over the Blue Jays that the rookie right-hander will take the ball tomorrow in Toronto, pushing Mike Clevinger back to Thursday’s series opener against the Orioles.

Chicago needed to settle on a new fifth starter after designating Brad Keller for assignment on Sunday. Nastrini and Jonathan Cannon, each of whom made his MLB debut in April, were the likeliest options. Nastrini took two starts for the Sox last month. He worked five innings of two-run ball against the Royals in his debut before surrendering six runs across three frames in a road matchup with the Phillies.

The Sox optioned Nastrini back to Triple-A Charlotte after his start in Philadelphia. Keller drew into the rotation for a couple turns, while Clevinger returned to the majors after his late free agent signing. The Sox quickly decided to move on from the veteran Keller in favor of a look at a younger pitcher.

Nastrini, 24, is a former fourth-round pick of the Dodgers. The Sox acquired him at last summer’s deadline in the Lance Lynn/Joe Kelly deal. Nastrini closed last season in Charlotte, where he has spent the majority of the 2024 campaign. His 5.83 ERA in 29 1/3 Triple-A frames isn’t particularly impressive, but the UCLA product has fanned nearly 27% of batters faced with a serviceable 8.2% walk rate. The longball has been his biggest issue, as Nastrini has allowed nine homers in six starts.

The Sox’s rotation has been one of the league’s worst overall, though it’s not without a few interesting performers. Garrett Crochet tossed six scoreless innings to earn the win tonight. He lowered his season ERA to 3.75 in the process. Crochet has punched out more than 32% of opponents in his first year as a starter.

Erick Fedde has allowed 3.10 earned runs per nine over 10 starts in his return to the majors. That mid-rotation production and his modest $7.5MM salaries through 2025 make him an intriguing trade candidate. Every other pitcher who has made multiple starts — Nastrini, Cannon, Keller, Clevinger, Chris Flexen and Michael Soroka — has an ERA above 5.00.

Chicago will officially recall Nastrini tomorrow. They’ll need to option or designate a pitcher for assignment to comply with the 13-pitcher maximum. It could be one of multiple moves, as the Sox will know in the coming days if Eloy Jiménez requires a stint on the injured list. The hulking DH left tonight’s game with a left hamstring strain.

Rockies Outright Julio Carreras

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The Rockies announced that infielder Julio Carreras has been sent outright to Triple-A Albuquerque. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment on Sunday. The club also reinstated infielder/outfielder Kris Bryant from the injured list, with outfielder Sean Bouchard optioned to Albuquerque in a corresponding move. Thomas Harding of MLB.com relayed the moves on X shortly before the official announcement.

Carreras, 24, was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic. Prospect reviews have generally considered him talented in terms of his speed and defense but with larger questions about how his bat would play as he climbed the minor league ladder.

He had a good season in 2022, getting into 110 games at High-A and hitting 11 home runs. His .289/.352/.473 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 129 and he also stole 17 bases. That got him a late-season promotion to Double-A and the Rockies put him on their 40-man roster to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft.

Unfortunately, the offensive results haven’t been as impressive since then. He hit .238/.324/.340 last year between Double-A and Triple-A for an 84 wRC+. Back at Triple-A this year, he’s produced a dismal line of .181/.247/.268 while striking out in 32.9% of his plate appearances.

He was bumped off Colorado’s roster a couple of days ago and none of the other 29 clubs were willing to take a chance on him. Since this is his first career outright, he’ll stay in the Rockies’ system and try to work his way back onto the roster.

Bryant will once again try to get into a good groove as a member of the Rockies, something that he has not been able to do thanks to injuries. He hit well in 2022 but only got into 42 contests, dealing with back problems and left foot plantar fasciitis. Last year, IL stints occurred due to a left heel bruise and a fractured left index finger. Here in 2024, a low back strain sent him to the IL just over a month ago.

The Rockies were surely hoping for more when they signed him to a seven-year, $182MM deal going into 2022. So far, they have received just 135 big league games from Bryant with a line of just .249/.329/.391, which translates to an 89 wRC+.

He will likely take over at first base, as Elehuris Montero is hitting just .221/.275/.307 this year. Brenton Doyle, Jake Cave and Jordan Beck will handle outfield duties, occasionally joined by designated hitter Charlie Blackmon.

Brewers Place Joe Ross On Injured List

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The Brewers announced that right-hander Joe Ross has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a low back strain, while fellow righty Tobias Myers has been recalled from Triple-A Nashville in a corresponding move.

It’s surely not the birthday that Ross pictured for himself, as he turns 31 years old today. He started for the Brewers last night but departed after just one inning, with the club later relaying that the righty is dealing with a low back strain. Now it seems the issue is serious enough that Ross will need to head to the IL for at least 15 days, though it’s unclear exactly how long the club expects him to be out of action.

Injuries have been a big part of the journey for Ross, especially in recent years. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022, the second such procedure of his career. That put him out of action for the rest of that year and most of 2023 as well.

Despite the long layoff, the Brewers took a shot on Ross and signed him to a major league deal in December. The results so far have been pretty good, especially when considering all that missed time. He has made nine starts with a 4.50 earned run average this year. His 18.9% strikeout rate is a bit below average but his 8.6% walk rate and 42% ground ball rate are both right around par.

Those numbers are obviously more passable than exciting, but subtracting that performance will still be unwelcome for the Brewers, given that it adds to the mounting number of rotation injuries they are dealing with. Brandon Woodruff won’t be pitching at all this year due to shoulder surgery and Wade Miley recently required Tommy John surgery, putting him out for the rest of the year as well. DL Hall and Jakob Junis are also on the IL at the moment, so today’s move gives the club a full rotation’s worth of starters on the shelf.

Freddy Peralta, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea and Robert Gasser currently take four rotation spots. The club is off on Thursday and could perhaps survive with those four starters for a few days but will likely need a fifth starter after that, since they play 13 games without a break starting on Friday.

Myers could perhaps step into the rotation, but Bradley Blalock is another option since he was starting in the minors prior to his promotion, with a 2.27 ERA in seven Triple-A starts this year. Myers has a 1.45 ERA at Triple-A this year but his four big league starts led to a 5.29 ERA as he walked 12.2% of opponents and allowed six homers. Mitch White is also on the roster but he pitched in each of the past two games.

Aaron Ashby is on optional assignment but has an 8.90 ERA in Triple-A this year. Janson Junk, also on the 40-man and pitching in the minors, has a much better 4.91 ERA but three of his past four outings have come out of the bullpen.

Despite the rotation challenges, the Brewers are 27-20 and sitting atop the National League Central, though the Cubs are only a game and a half back. Those two clubs play a four-game set against each other next week.

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