The 2024 Cubs surged out to a 17-10 start for the season’s first month, turning in a +20 run differential and looking every bit like a favorite in the National League Central. The script has flipped over the past month-plus, however, as Chicago has gone 12-19 and allowed 25 more runs than they’ve scored in the 31 games since. They’re now six games back of a Brewers club that holds a relatively commanding lead in the division.
Thankfully for the Cubs — and many other non-division leaders in the National League — the 2024 NL is rife with mediocrity thus far. Only four NL clubs have a winning record more than a third of the way through the season. Chicago’s modest 30-31 standing on the season is actually enough to give them a one-game lead for the third NL Wild Card spot. (Conversely, the 33-27 Twins hold the top Wild Card spot in the American League.)
With the Cubs still squarely in the playoff picture and just under eight weeks to go until the 2024 trade deadline, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is unsurprisingly looking ahead with a buyer’s mentality. The longtime Cubs exec chatted with The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney about his team’s recent play, conceding that they’ve “played poor baseball in a lot of ways” but expressing confidence that there’s a turnaround on the horizon.
Hoyer added that he’s “constantly looking to improve our team” and more specifically lamented the lack of home-run power on his squad. “You need to be able to homer at the right times,” said Hoyer. “And you need to be able to score in bunches. That’s something we haven’t done, especially early. … You got to put pressure on the opposing manager. You got to get into the bad part of the bullpen. We haven’t done a good enough job.”
The Cubs are a middle-of-the-pack team on the season as a whole, with 60 round-trippers on the year. But over the past 30 days, Chicago’s 24 home runs are tied for 22nd in the majors. In that span, the Cubs rank 29th in baseball with a .216 average, 21st with a .299 on-base percentage and 28th with a .347 slugging percentage. Their combined 23.7% strikeout rate is also the sixth-highest in the majors.
Digging in a bit further, the Cubs have seen strong production from Cody Bellinger over the past month. Ian Happ has hit for a low average with a middling OBP but shown plenty of power. It’s been the inverse for Michael Busch, who’s hit .189 and flailed away with a 37% strikeout rate but also drawn walks in more than one of five plate appearances, keeping his batting line afloat with a strong OBP.
The rest of the roster has struggled all around at the plate, with particular difficulty from Dansby Swanson and (to a lesser extent) double-play partner Nico Hoerner over the past month. Both are premium defenders who are signed long-term, however, so neither will be displaced anytime soon.
Bellinger has played some more first base recently in light of Busch’s contact struggles, but that’s left further questions in the outfield, where Seiya Suzuki has struggled upon hie return from the injured list and Pete Crow-Armstrong has yet to find his stride in a small sample of big league at-bats. Over at third base, Christopher Morel has struggled on both sides of the ball recently — yesterday’s home run notwithstanding. The Cubs’ catching tandem of Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya, meanwhile, has been one of the worst in baseball from an offensive standpoint, combining for a .176/.220/.261 slash.
Speculatively speaking, the most straightforward areas at which to add would be third base, catcher or designated hitter. A third baseman with some power and a solid glove would be particularly prudent, as it’d allow Morel to move to more of a DH-heavy role. There might not be many such hitters on the market, however, particularly if the Rockies stick to their reported desire to hang onto Ryan McMahon. If the Astros wind up selling, impending free agent Alex Bregman is a logical target, but Houston GM Dana Brown recently downplayed the notion that Houston would trade pieces away. Toronto GM Ross Atkins took a similar approach in suggesting trades of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and/or Bo Bichette don’t “make any sense” for his club.
The market could have a few catchers available, particularly if the Blue Jays or Rockies are willing to part with impending free agents Danny Jansen and Elias Diaz. Of course, the trade market will continue to come into focus as the deadline draws nearer and as teams more firmly cement themselves as playoff contenders or more decisively fall back in the standings.
Taking a bigger-picture look, Bellinger’s ability to play all three outfield positions and first base gives Hoyer and his staff some flexibility in the type of hitter they pursue. If Busch continues to struggle, he could be optioned to Iowa, with Bellinger taking over first base on a full-time basis and the Cubs targeting an outfielder. If Busch can rebound, the Cubs could pursue any outfielder whose bat they covet, knowing Bellinger could slot into any of the three outfield slots, and that he, Happ, Suzuki and a new acquisition could rotate through the outfield and DH slots.
However they choose to go about it, the Cubs seem likely to be in the market for some extra punch heading into next month’s trade deadline. That’ll surely be true of many teams looking to bolster their rosters, but Chicago’s need is a bit more acute — and the roster offers multiple points for potential upgrades.
