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2024-25 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners' second near-miss of the playoffs in the past two years prompted significant leadership changes before the season drew to a close. Manager Scott Servais was shown the door shortly before the completion of his ninth year on the job and replaced not an interim basis but by the full-time appointment of former M's catcher Dan Wilson as the club's new skipper. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander remain in place and will be under even more pressure to field a playoff club next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Julio Rodriguez, OF: $180MM through 2034 (contract could climb as high as $450MM through 2039 based on series of options/escalators)
  • Luis Castillo, RHP: $68.25MM through 2027 (contract contains 2028 vesting option)
  • J.P. Crawford, SS: $21MM through 2026
  • Mitch Garver, C/DH: $12.5MM through 2025 (includes buyout of 2026 club option)
  • Victor Robles, OF: $8.5MM through 2026 (includes buyout of 2027 club option)
  • Dylan Moore, INF/OF: $3.825MMM through 2025
  • Andres Munoz, RHP: $2.5MM through 2025 (contract contains club options for 2026-28 seasons)

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Mariners' 2022 return to postseason baseball after a 20-year drought raised expectations in Seattle. Those expectations have not been reached in two subsequent seasons. The Mariners have played winning ball in each of the past two seasons but have failed to secure even a Wild Card berth. This year's loss is particularly painful for the organization, as Seattle held a dominant 10-game lead on the division in early June but had squandered it by the following month. A resurgent Astros club stormed to yet another AL West crown. There's no indication that front office changes are nigh -- team chairman John Stanton already said Dipoto would remain at his post -- but baseball operations turnover often follows coaching changes if the results don't quickly improve.

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Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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A big shakeup is in process for the front office in San Francisco. The Farhan Zaidi era came to an end last month and now Giants legend Buster Posey will be calling the shots as president of baseball operations. Since Posey has so little experience in running baseball operations, it's hard to know exactly what to expect, but there are some signs that the club will move from a measured approach to a bolder focus on acquiring marquee players.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • LHP Robbie Ray can opt out of final two years and $50MM remaining on contract
  • LHP Blake Snell can opt out of final one year and $30MM remaining on contract
  • IF Wilmer Flores has $3.5MM player option, Giants have $8.5MM club option if he declines

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Snell opts out while Ray and Flores stay): $110.75MM
Total future commitments (assuming Snell opts out while Ray and Flores stay) : $439.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Yastrzemski, Doval

Free Agents

The Giants did some good things under Zaidi's watch but the club was mostly defined by mediocrity in his time. The club finished just below .500 in his first two seasons. They shot up to an amazing 107 wins in 2021 but were eliminated by the Dodgers in the playoffs and crashed back to earth after. They finished at .500 in 2022 and just below in the next two years, making the 2021 season look like a clear outlier.

On top of the on-field results, there were some unsatisfactory elements elsewhere. The club's offseasons often focused on the players they didn't acquire, as guys like Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa came close to becoming Giants but ultimately didn't. Also, the club struggled to graduate many of its top prospects, with guys like Joey Bart, Luis Matos and Marco Luciano struggling to establish themselves at the big league level.

There were some nice finds on the pitching market, but mostly on short-term deals that allowed the players to get their big money elsewhere. Both Carlos Rodón and Kevin Gausman were able to resurrect their careers as Giants, but both quickly returned to free agency and got their big deals from A.L. East clubs, Rodón with the Yankees and Gausman the Blue Jays. To a lesser extent, guys like Sean Manaea, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani had some good results with the club but are no longer in San Francisco. The club recently snapped up Blake Snell when he lingered unsigned into early 2024, but he now seems destined to depart like the others.

Last month, it became apparent that the franchise was growing weary of this generally tempered approach. Third baseman Matt Chapman, who had also signed a short-term deal like Snell, was signed to a six-year extension to stay by the Bay. But it was quickly reported that Posey had taken a lead role in getting that deal done, talking with Chapman directly in order to work around Zaidi and Chapman's agent Scott Boras.

Many smelled smoke in that report and the fire was later confirmed, as Posey was then given Zaidi's job. Posey said that he views baseball as a "memory-making business" at his introductory press conference. "Sure, winning is great," Posey said, per Maria Guardado of MLB.com. "Ultimately, that's our goal, to be a playoff team every year and compete for a championship. But I think just the overall big picture of being a part of something that's bigger than yourself was really appealing."

Does this mean that the Giants are now going to take a more free-wheeling approach, with less concern about squeezing the value of every dollar at the margins of every transaction? Will the plan be just to get things done, even if that means being a bit more reckless and perhaps overpaying from time to time?

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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals didn't use the word "rebuild" at last week's press conference, but it's abundantly clear that they're taking a future-focused approach and stepping back from what's been a perennial goal of fielding a contender for decades. The 2025 season will be president of baseball operations John Mozeliak's final year on the job. A new era of Cardinals baseball is approaching. Let's break down what the offseason could entail.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

As the Cardinals' lackluster season drew to a close, it became increasingly clear that changes were on the horizon. Speculation ranged from the front office to the dugout. Ultimately, manager Oli Marmol will remain in place for the 2025 season, and Mozeliak will return for an 18th season leading baseball operations -- but with a caveat. Former Rays senior vice president and Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will oversee player development next season before taking the reins as the Cardinals' new president of baseball ops. General manager Mike Girsch has already been reassigned. In the dugout, several coaches have been let go already.

It feels almost foreign to be discussing the Cardinals, a bastion of competitive rosters in the NL Central for the past couple decades, as a team now focused not on who might be coming into the fold but rather who might be exiting the frame. That's reality, however, as much of the roster could turn over via a series of trades or surprising decisions on what otherwise seemed like straightforward option calls.

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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It's been almost a year since the Marlins hired Peter Bendix as their president of baseball operations. Since then, the club has been defined by a no-holds-barred commitment to the future, with seemingly no regard to PR considerations. They made almost no investments in the club last winter, aggressively traded away established players during the season and recently parted ways with their manager, their entire coaching staff and almost every other employee. Expect more of the same this offseason, with the club's collection of starting pitchers likely to be in plenty of trade rumors.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcántara, RHP: $36MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout on 2027 club option)
  • Woo-Suk Go, RHP (no longer on 40-man roster): $2.75MM through 2025 (including $500K buyout on 2026 mutual option)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • none

Total 2025 commitments: $39.75MM
Total future commitments: $85.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Fortes

Free Agents

  • None.

The Marlins snuck into the playoffs in 2023 but it quickly became clear that owner Bruce Sherman didn't have faith in the club's overall direction. Shortly after the club was eliminated from the postseason, it was reported that he planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work above general manager Kim Ng. Understandably, she decided to turn down her end of a mutual option for 2024, rather than accept what was essentially a demotion. Manager Skip Schumaker was reportedly annoyed at the pivot, and the club agreed to void a 2025 club option in his contract, making it clear he wouldn't return beyond the 2024 season.

The sudden shakeup was frustrating for fans, but there was some logic to it. That 2023 club actually had a -57 run differential and a 33-14 record in one-run games, a hard feat to repeat. The farm system was generally regarded as one of the worst in the league by any outlet that measures such things.

Despite the playoff berth, change was afoot and that has been the name of the game since then. Rays general manager Peter Bendix was hired as president of baseball operations and showed that he essentially viewed the franchise in the same way as Sherman, with little regard for the club's short-term chances. The largest free agent deal they gave out last winter was $5MM for Tim Anderson.

The prophecy, somewhat self-fulfilled, came true quickly in 2024. The Marlins got out to a horrible start and Bendix didn't hesitate to start the selloff, with Luis Arráez flipped to the Padres in the first week of May. He continued the selloff closer to the deadline by sending out A.J. Puk, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, Bryan De La Cruz, Huascar Brazobán, JT Chargois and Josh Bell. That list might have been even longer if it weren't for a large number of injuries to other potential trade candidates.

By the end of the 2024 season, the Marlins had accumulated 62 wins and 100 losses. It's clear that everything is focused on the long-term picture and there are no sacred cows. As mentioned up top, just about any major league player with trade value has seemingly been available. The manager is leaving, as is the entire coaching staff. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the club is parting ways with more than 70 employees, including "the team’s dietitian, home clubhouse manager and traveling secretary, and others." Though it has been painful and has been ruthless, it is commendable in a shocking sort of way that the club has committed to a long-term plan and is clearly dedicated to seeing it through.

Going forward, it seems fair to expect more of the same, at least until the club believes they have a core in place that is worth building around. Assuming that's the case, the Marlins will continue to trade big league pieces this winter, in the name of rebuilding for some future competitive window.

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros overcame a slow start to pull away with another division title. They weren't able to extend their remarkable streak of seven consecutive trips to the AL Championship Series, as the red-hot Tigers swept them at Minute Maid Park. The attention immediately turns to the potential loss of their longtime third baseman.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional financial commitments

  • Owe released first baseman José Abreu $19.5MM through 2025

2025 financial commitments: $142MM
Total future commitments: $416MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Urquidy, McCormick, Murfee

Free Agents

The Astros remain firmly in win-now mode but are facing the potential free agent departure of a core player. That's a situation they've successfully navigated before. Houston has allowed Carlos Correa and George Springer to walk without taking a step back. Are they prepared to do the same with Alex Bregman?

That's the biggest question of Houston's offseason. General manager Dana Brown has said time and again that he hopes to keep Bregman. Multiple Astros players have gone on record talking about his importance both on the field and in the clubhouse. The financial picture doesn't point toward a reunion being likely, though.

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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds hoped to make the jump from underdogs with an exciting young core to legitimate playoff contenders. It didn't happen this year. With a splash managerial hire and returns to health from most of the rotation, expectations will again be high going into 2025.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $47MM through 2028 (including buyout of '29 club option)
  • Jeimer Candelario, 3B: $30MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
  • Jonathan India, 2B: $7.05MM through 2025 (eligible for arbitration in '26)

Option Decisions

  • RHP Nick Martinez holds $12MM player option (no buyout)
  • RHP Emilio Pagán holds $8MM player option ($250K buyout)
  • Team, RHP Jakob Junis hold $8MM mutual option; Brewers are responsible for $1MM of the $3MM buyout
  • Team holds $3.5MM option on LHP Brent Suter ($500K buyout)
  • Team holds $3.5MM option on C Luke Maile ($500K buyout)

2025 financial commitments (assuming Martinez opt-out and Pagán opts in): $39.05MM
Total future commitments (assuming Martinez opt-out and Pagán opts in): $95.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: France, Antone, Espinal, Fraley, Wynns, Gibaut

Free Agents

The Reds have begun their offseason with a bang. As the season wound down, Cincinnati dismissed sixth-year skipper David Bell. That wasn't especially surprising with the team en route to a 77-85 finish that represented a five-game drop relative to last season. Bell's replacement was a stunner. The Reds brought Terry Francona out of what proved to be a one-year retirement. Landing one of the sport's most respected managers should renew optimism going into 2025.

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs enter 2025 with an excellent opportunity to make the playoffs for the first time under Jed Hoyer.  Cody Bellinger's decision will help determine Hoyer's path, but the club will be seeking help at catcher and in the rotation and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Cody Bellinger, RF/CF/DH/1B: $27.5MM player option with a $2.5MM buyout.  Also has a $25MM player option for '26 with a $5MM buyout
  • Drew Smyly, RP: $10MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Cubs' splashy hiring of Craig Counsell last November had minimal impact this year, as the club posted the same 83-79 record it had under David Ross in 2023.  A 17-10 April record created some optimism, but the Cubs went 65-67 thereafter and were mostly out of the playoff race by July.  Let's take a look around the Cubs' roster and figure out how president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might go about creating a 90-win team for 2025, a particularly ripe opportunity with the Cardinals taking a rare step back.

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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers never seemed to snap out of a World Series hangover, as the team stumbled to a 78-84 record one year after capturing its first championship.  Texas now has several holes to be filled on the pitching staff, and the lingering question of how much money is available for roster upgrades.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2025 financial commitments: $136.75MM ($170.25MM if all options are exercised)
Total future commitments: $469.75MM ($503.25MM if all options are exercised)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The first bit of the Rangers' offseason business was addressed in September, when Chris Young was signed to a new contract extension and promoted from GM to president of baseball operations.  Young's previous deal was up at the end of the 2024 season, and despite this year's struggles in Arlington, the Commissioner's Trophy from 2023 was surely enough for Young to earn some extra job security.

Now entering his third winter in charge of the Texas front office, Young faces another unique challenge.  The 2022-23 offseason was all about the Rangers trying to finally get back into contention, and Jacob deGrom's five-year, $185MM free agent deal added to the club's spending spree from the previous offseason under former PBO Jon Daniels.  Last offseason, with a championship now in tow, Young basically just stood pat, as the Rangers scaled back spending due to the big salary commitments already in place, and plenty of concern over the team's broadcasting revenues.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels are coming off the worst season in franchise history. The farm system isn't highly regarded, while the team didn't get much out of its two highest-paid players. No team has a longer active playoff drought and that's unlikely to change in the next season or two.

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Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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After more than three years of rebuilding, the Nationals enter the offseason with a very clean long-term payroll outlook, young core players emerging at multiple spots on the roster, and a front office that sounds motivated to get back into contention sooner than later.

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