This winter’s qualifying offer is projected by the league to land around $21.2MM, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The number won’t be officially calculated until October but should be in that range. Around this time last year, Sherman relayed the 2023-24 QO was projected to be $20.5MM, though it eventually came in slightly lower at $20.325MM.
The qualifying offer value generally goes up each year since it is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. Salaries naturally trend up with inflation, so the QO moves up in kind. Here is how it has trended in recent history…
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM
- 2014-15: $15.3MM
- 2015-16: $15.8MM
- 2016-17: $17.2MM
- 2017-18: $17.4MM
- 2018-19: $17.9MM
- 2019-20: $17.8MM
- 2020-21: $18.9MM
- 2021-22: $18.4MM
- 2022-23: $19.65MM
- 2023-24: $20.325MM
A team can issue a qualifying offer, a one-year deal, to an impending free agent if the player just spent the entire season on its roster and has never received a QO in his career before. Here is a list of players who have previously received a QO and are therefore ineligible to receive another. Players traded midseason, such as Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers, are also ineligible.
Once the World Series is over, teams have five days to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Sherman, the players will have until 4pm Eastern on November 19 to decide whether to accept or reject. In the interim, they will be able to speak with other teams and assess their options before making a decision.
If a player rejects, then his previous team is eligible for draft pick compensation if he eventually signs elsewhere. That compensation will depend upon the size of the contract, the revenue-sharing status of the club and whether or not they paid the competitive balance tax. The signing club will be subject to draft pick forfeiture, which is also dependent on similar criteria.
Last year, seven players received qualifying offers and all of them rejected it, though Cody Bellinger and Aaron Nola eventually re-signed with the Cubs and Phillies respectively. This winter, players like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Max Fried and Anthony Santander are virtual locks to receive and reject a QO as long as they are healthy. Players like Ha-Seong Kim, Gleyber Torres, Teoscar Hernández, Christian Walker, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jurickson Profar will be tougher calls for their respective clubs.
