The qualifying offer in the 2024-25 offseason will be officially set at $21.05MM, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported in August that the QO value was expected to land in the vicinity of $21.2MM but would not be finalized until October. This year’s QO value represents an increase of $725K over last year’s mark of $20.325MM. The QO value, which is determined by calculating the average salary of the sport’s 125 highest-paid players, has risen nearly every season since being implemented under the 2012-16 collective bargaining agreement. Here’s a look at the history of the QO value:
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM
- 2014-15: $15.3MM
- 2015-16: $15.8MM
- 2016-17: $17.2MM
- 2017-18: $17.4MM
- 2018-19: $17.9MM
- 2019-20: $17.8MM
- 2020-21: $18.9MM
- 2021-22: $18.4MM
- 2022-23: $19.65MM
- 2023-24: $20.325MM
For those in need of a refresher or new to the QO system entirely, it was implemented as a competitive balance measure in an effort to ensure clubs would receive compensation in the following year’s draft if their top players depart and sign elsewhere in free agency. Any team can issue a qualifying offer to an impending free agent at the beginning of the offseason, so long as that player A) has never received a QO in the past and B) spent the entire season on that club’s roster. (In other words: players can only receive one QO in their career, and traded players cannot receive a QO — a measure put in place to prevent big-market clubs from acquiring/claiming expensive players from small-market teams who couldn’t afford the risk of a QO themselves.)
Five days after the end of the World Series, teams must decide whether to issue a QO to any of their impending free agents. Those players will have a week to then survey the market to determine what sort of interest is present in free agency before deciding whether to accept a one-year deal at the QO value or reject it in pursuit of a larger contract. Players who accept the QO are considered signed in the same manner as any free agent, meaning they cannot be traded prior to June 15 of the following season without their consent. Players who reject a qualifying offer are then tied to draft compensation, potentially complicating their market in some cases.
In order to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer, teams must surrender at least one pick — two, in some cases — in the next year’s draft. Some clubs are also required to surrender space from their bonus pool in international amateur free agency.
Any club that pays the luxury tax must surrender its second- and fifth-highest picks in the next year’s draft and forfeit $1MM of international pool space. (Signing a second qualified free agent means surrendering the second- and fifth-highest of their remaining picks, and so forth.) Non-luxury clubs that do not receive revenue sharing must surrender their second-highest pick and $500K of international pool space to sign a qualified free agent. (Again, signing a second such free agent means forfeiting their second-highest remaining pick.) Non-luxury teams who also receive revenue sharing are required to forfeit their third-highest pick to sign a qualified free agent (and their remaining third-highest pick for additional qualified free agents).
There are similar structures in place for the team losing the free agent in question. A revenue-sharing club receives a compensatory pick either at the end of the first round (if the player signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money) between Competitive Balance Round B and round three (if he signs for under $50MM) in the following year’s draft. Non-luxury clubs who do not receive revenue sharing receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B. Luxury tax payors receive a compensatory pick between rounds four and five of the draft.
The relatively steep nature of the one-year offer and the risk of being “saddled” with a player that the club perhaps did not want to retain (but for whom they’d hoped to net a draft pick) typically lead to only a handful of players receiving the QO. Last year saw just seven players — Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Josh Hader — receive qualifying offers. All seven rejected them. The most recent examples of players accepting the one-year QO came on the heels of the 2022 season, when Joc Pederson and Martin Perez accepted their $19.65MM qualifying offers from the Giants and Rangers, respectively.
There are a handful of slam-dunk QO candidates among this year’s crop of free agents. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Max Fried, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez will all assuredly receive a QO and are all overwhelmingly likely to reject in search of a multi-year deal. Other candidates to receive a QO include Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Christian Walker, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Wacha, Ha-Seong Kim, and Nick Martinez, though not everyone from that group will ultimately receive one. Manaea, Wacha and Martinez all have opt-outs in their contracts they’re widely expected to exercise this offseason. Kim has an $8MM mutual option on his contract that he won’t exercise, although whether he receives a QO could hinge in part on the recovery timetable from his recent shoulder surgery, which is still not known.