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Cubs, Jorge Alfaro Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs and catcher Jorge Alfaro are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The backstop will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Alfaro, 31 in June, was once considered a top 100 prospect in his time as a minor leaguer. He was originally signed as an amateur out of Colombia by the Rangers, but was twice moved as part of a notable trade. He was one of eight players in the deal in that was headlined by Cole Hamels going from the Phillies to the Rangers, then was flipped to the Marlins in the J.T. Realmuto trade.

But he hasn’t been able to live up to that prospect hype just yet. Even as a minor leaguer, his power came with poor plate discipline, but strikeouts have been a big problem in the majors. Defensively, he was considered strong in terms of controlling the running game but not great at blocking, which has also been borne out in the big leagues.

In 1,710 plate appearances to this point, he has walked in just 4.2% of them while getting punched out at a 34% clip. His overall batting line of .253/.302/.393 translated to a wRC+ of 86. On Statcast’s catcher throwing leaderboard, he’s been one of the better backstops since his 2016 debut. But when it comes to blocking, with Statcast’s data going back to 2018, Alfaro is dead last out of 215 catchers to see action in that time.

Despite those flaws, as the old saying goes, there’s no such thing as a bad minor league deal. The Cubs have veteran Yan Gomes and youngster Miguel Amaya set to split the catching duties but no other catcher on the 40-man roster. In the event of an injury, Alfaro can give them a bit of experienced non-roster depth.

White Sox Designate Yohan Ramirez For Assignment

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The White Sox have officially announced their deal with right-hander Erick Fedde, with fellow righty Yohan Ramirez designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Ramirez, 29 in May, was just claimed off waivers from the Pirates in September. He has 124 innings of major league experience to this point, having thrown for the Mariners, Guardians, Pirates and White Sox. He has an earned run average of 3.99 in that time, having struck out 23.2% of opponents and kept 44.9% of balls in play on the ground but also walking opponents at a 12.5% clip.

The righty burned his final option season in 2023 and will therefore be out of options going forward. That gives him a bit less appeal, since he can no longer be sent to Triple-A without first being exposed to waivers, therefore making it harder to utilize him as a depth piece.

The Sox have removed him from the roster now and will have a week to work out a trade or pass him through waivers. Ramirez is currently a bit shy of three years of MLB service time and doesn’t have a previous career outright. That means he wouldn’t be able to elect free agency if he were to make it through waivers unclaimed.

Dodgers, Daniel Hudson In Agreement On Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers and right-hander Daniel Hudson have agreed to reunite on a minor league deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The righty will earn $2MM if he cracks the roster, with another $2MM available via incentives.

Hudson, 37 in March, is coming off a mostly lost season in 2023. After tearing the ACL in his left knee in June of 2022, he was rehabbing over the winter but also developed some ankle tendinitis as well as patellar tendinitis in the knee. He started the season on the injured list and wasn’t activated until late June. After just three appearances, he suffered a sprained MCL in his right knee and landed back on the IL. He wasn’t able to return and then said in October that he was undecided about whether he would return for another year or hang up his cleats.

It seems he has now decided to give it another go and has returned to the Dodgers, with whom he signed going into 2022. Prior to the injury woes, he was utterly dominant. He tossed 24 1/3 innings that year with a 2.22 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 53.4% ground ball rate. He was so impressive that the Dodgers extended him into 2023 after his torn ACL.

That obviously didn’t pan out but it’s understandable why they would still be interested in him. In this case, they haven’t even guaranteed him a roster spot or his salary, giving them a chance to walk away if his health is an issue again in the spring. But if he’s back in form, it would be a nice low-cost boost to the bullpen. He has a 3.79 ERA in his career, having thrown almost 800 innings dating back to his 2009 debut.

The Dodgers have generally shown a willingness to give deals to injured players they like, often with incentives that allow the player greater potential earning power while keeping the club uncommitted. Alex Reyes, Blake Treinen and Jimmy Nelson are some players that have signed such deals in recent years and now Hudson will be in the mix on a similar pact for 2024.

Francisco Álvarez Open To Extension With Mets

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Catcher Francisco Álvarez is interested in discussing a long-term extension with the Mets, reports Tim Healey of Newsday. The club’s new president of baseball operations David Stearns spoke positively about extensions of young players in a general sense but declined to speak about an Álvarez extension specifically.

“It’s something that every organization has to explore and requires both sides to have interest,” Stearns said. “And certainly, as we go forward, hopefully we’ll have a number of players in that second and third [year] where it makes sense to talk to them about it.”

Álvarez, 22, has just over a year in the big leagues and has carried himself well. He has 26 home runs in 128 career games. His 26.1% strikeout rate is a tad high but he’s also walked at a reasonable 8.2% clip. His .208/.284/.439 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been just barely below the league average hitter overall, though that’s better than par for a catcher.

In addition to that solid performance at the plate, he was graded well behind it. Each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast considered him to be one of the top five pitch framers in the league this year. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of +7 in 2023, a mark that only seven catchers bested that season. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement on the season overall.

Since he debuted before his 21st birthday, Álvarez is currently slated to reach free agency at a relatively young age. He has just over one year of service time at the moment, meaning he would hit the open market after 2028, his age-26 season. That will give him some leverage in contract talks, as he could simply go year-to-year and cash in at that point. But signing a deal now would allow him to lock in some life-changing money and avoid the risk of an injury sapping some of his earning power. As Healey points out, Álvarez could give the Mets an extra couple of years of control and still become a free agent in his late 20s.

The Mets have been one of the most aggressive spenders in recent years, with owner Steve Cohen having shown little regard for the bottom line since purchasing the club. That presumably gives them the ability to lock in any player they decide they want to keep. They have some significant contracts on the books in the short term, some for players no longer on the roster, but extensions for young players generally ramp up over time, with smaller salaries in the early years.

By 2028, only Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have guaranteed contracts. Between now and then, significant deals for Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, James McCann, José Quintana, Luis Severino, Kodai Senga, Starling Marte, Edwin Díaz and Jeff McNeil will have wrapped up. But if the club makes a bold move, such as signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto or extending Pete Alonso, then that would obviously change things.

But given Cohen’s willingness to spend when he decides it’s warranted, they should be able to make something work with Álvarez if they consider him a core part of their next competitive window. It’s been signalled that 2024 will be a bit of a transition year as the club targets another full throttle push in 2025 and beyond. Álvarez is on pace to qualify for arbitration after that 2025 season so the club might like to get some cost certainty by agreeing to something earlier.

Extensions for players early in their careers are becoming more common. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez and Jackson Chourio got notable guarantees before even reaching the majors while players like Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodríguez and Fernando Tatis Jr. got nine-figure guarantees with limited MLB experience.

In terms of catchers, Keibert Ruiz signed an extension with the Nationals in March. He secured a $50MM guarantee over eight years while also giving the Nats two club options. Like Álvarez now, Ruiz was also between one and two years of service at that time but was a couple of years older, going into his age-24 campaign. His results prior to that deal were also bit below those of Álvarez, both offensively and defensively, so the Mets would almost certainly have to beat that Ruiz deal to get something done with Álvarez.

There’s no real rush for the club, as Álvarez isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2025. Even if they want to get something done this winter, teams generally prefer to focus on acquisitions in the earlier parts of the offseason and leave extensions for rostered players until closer to Spring Training.

Dodgers Met With Yoshinobu Yamamoto On Tuesday

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Dec. 13: Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman were all present at Dodger Stadium yesterday for the team’s recruitment pitch to Yamamoto, per Fabian Ardaya and Ken  Rosenthal of The Athletic. Dorsey tweets that Will Smith, Yamamoto’s potential batterymate if he signs in Los Angeles, was also present.

Dec. 12: The Dodgers met with Yoshinobu Yamamoto today as the star right-hander continues his North American tour, reports Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports (on X). They’re the sixth team known to chat with the 25-year-old free agent.

Mets officials flew to Japan to speak with Yamamoto last week. The pitcher and his camp are now traveling around the U.S. and Canada as they interview with other teams in the mix. Yamamoto met with the Giants two days ago and the Yankees yesterday. He’ll chat with the Red Sox and Blue Jays later in the week.

After signing Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers are on the hunt for rotation help. L.A. has been linked to virtually every starting pitcher of note in free agency or trade. The Dodgers have Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller locked into two rotation spots. They figure to at least two starters to a middle to back end that includes Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Ryan Yarbrough while Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May work back from surgery.

Yamamoto is widely viewed as the best remaining free agent. He is increasingly expected to command a contract approaching or exceeding $300MM, to say nothing of the posting fee an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes.

While Yamamoto is easily the top pitcher coming over from Japan this offseason, he’s not the only one. Left-hander Shota Imanaga, who turned 30 in September, was posted by the Yokohama BayStars. He’s coming off a 2.80 ERA with an excellent 29.2% strikeout rate over 148 innings. In an appearance on MLB Network this afternoon, Jon Morosi indicated the Dodgers had some level of interest in Imanaga. Teams like the Cubs, Mets, Red Sox and Tigers have also been tied to the southpaw at points this offseason.

Roster Resource calculates the Dodgers’ luxury tax number for 2024 just south of $220MM. That leaves them $17MM below the base threshold and well shy of their estimated $267MM CBT number from last season.

Braves Outright David Fletcher

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The Braves announced Wednesday that infielder David Fletcher, who they acquired from the Angels last week, has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Gwinnett. The move amounts to a formality, as Atlanta was surely aware that another team wouldn’t claim Fletcher and the $14MM still guaranteed to him on his current contract. The Angels outrighted Fletcher twice during the 2023 season. At 4.168 years of MLB service time, he’s four days shy of being able to reject an outright assignment while still remaining the entirety of that sum.

David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that Braves brass still “fully expects” Fletcher to be their primary utility infielder next season. For the time being, however, passing him through waivers creates some extra flexibility by opening a spot on the 40-man roster. The Braves can always select Fletcher back to the 40-man roster prior to Opening Day. Once he’s accrued even four more days of service time, they’ll lose the ability to shuffle him around in this nature, as Fletcher could elect free agency and retain his salary, leaving Atlanta on the hook for that money.

It’s still a modest surprise to see Fletcher outrighted at the moment, given that the Braves already had five open spots on the 40-man roster. Timing aside, the outcome was always going to be the same when he was placed on waivers though, so making the move now versus making the move in February changes nothing. It sounds quite likely that Fletcher will be added back to the 40-man before long — if not prior to Opening Day then early in the 2024 campaign.

Fletcher, 29, came to the Braves as part of a convoluted series of trades that have added a considerable amount of money to Atlanta’s luxury tax ledger but haven’t left the roster with much in the way of clear upgrades. The Braves acquired Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Marco Gonzales for Jackson Kowar, prospect Cole Phillips and cash — then immediately flipped Gonzales and cash to the Pirates for a player to be named later. White was traded to the Angels alongside minor league reliever Tyler Thomas to acquire catcher Max Stassi and Fletcher. Atlanta quickly sent Stassi and cash to the White Sox for another PTBNL.

Ultimately, they were left on the hook for the remaining $14MM on Fletcher’s deal, nearly three quarters of Gonzales’ $12.25MM salary, and the associated luxury taxes they’ll pay on each player. It’s a steep price to pay to effectively buy low on Kelenic and install Fletcher as a utility infielder — particularly when the Braves already had a very similar utility option in Nicky Lopez, who was traded to the ChiSox as part of the Aaron Bummer trade. Perhaps the PTBNLs acquired for Gonzales and Stassi will be of some significance, but it’s hard to imagine a team in the Pirates’ or White Sox’ positions giving up substantial prospect talent for short-term stopgaps — even at positions of need and with paid-down salaries.

Fletcher signed a five-year, $26MM extension with the Angels on the heels of a .298/.356/.395 showing from 2019-20 — a productive stretch at the plate during which he fanned at a tiny 10.1% clip and played superb defense between three infield spots (second base, third base, shortstop). He’s since floundered at the dish, however, batting just .259/.296/.327 in 990 plate appearances. Fletcher’s bat-to-ball skills have actually improved (8.6% strikeout rate), but his quality of contact has plummeted and rendered him an unimpactful player in the batter’s box. He’s still a versatile and talented defender, and the Braves will likely lean on him as a glove-first utility option this coming season.

NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Sign Andrew Stevenson

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12:50pm: Darren Wolfson of Skor North relayed the financials. Stevenson will be guarantee $850K with a club option that could make it $2.4MM over two years.

12:32pm: The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have signed outfielder Andrew Stevenson, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Stevenson, 30 in June, has 273 games of major league experience. Most of that was with the Nationals, though he was in the Twins’ organization in 2023. Broadly speaking, he has served as a glove-first outfielder in that time. He has eight home runs in 489 plate appearances, batting .243/.316/.352 overall for a wRC+ of 80. His glovework has resulted in four Defensive Runs Saved, three Outs Above Average and a grade of 4.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

He signed a minor league deal with the Twins back in March and was added to the roster in September. He had performed very well in Triple-A, hitting .317/.394/.522 while stealing 44 bases. He played 25 major league games down the stretch but hit just .189/.250/.216 in those, though he did swipe another four bags. He was outrighted by the Twins and elected free agency in October.

Despite his speed-and-defense, Stevenson has struggled to hold onto a big league roster spot in recent years, both due to his lack of hitting in the majors and because he burned his final option year in 2021. He didn’t get to the big leagues at all in 2022 and was just a September call-up in the most recent campaign.

Had he stayed in North America for 2024, he likely would have had to settle for another minor league deal. But by heading overseas, he will lock in a nice guarantee for himself. The financials of this deal aren’t publicly known but guys who move from MLB to NPB generally get paid a salary close to the MLB minimum. If he succeeds for the Fighters, that could perhaps lead to some more earnings in Japan and/or a return to North America down the line.

KBO’s NC Dinos Sign Daniel Castano

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The NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization have signed former Marlins lefty Daniel Castano to a one-year contract, the team announced (English-language link via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). He’ll earn $650K in guaranteed money between his salary and signing bonus, and he can take home another $200K via incentives.

Castano, 29, came to the Marlins alongside future stars Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen (later flipped to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm Jr.) in the trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis. He’s appeared in each of the past four seasons with Miami, logging a total of 88 2/3 innings. Along the way, the former 19th-round pick has posted a 4.47 earned run average with a 12.4% strikeout rate that’s roughly half the league average and a solid 7.9% walk rate.

Castano has appeared in parts of three Triple-A seasons with the Marlins and produced generally similar run-prevention numbers, albeit with a much better strikeout rate. In 174 innings with Miami’s top affiliate in Jacksonville, he’s logged a 4.24 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He’s expected to work as a starter with the Dinos, per general manager Sun-nam Lim.

The Marlins outrighted Castano off the 40-man roster in September, and he became a free agent following the season. He’d likely have been in line for a minor league deal were he to sign with an MLB organization, at which point he’d have earned at a prorated deal not far north of the MLB minimum for any time spent in the big leagues. The $650K guarantee alone should top what he might’ve made under that scenario, and the incentives give him further earning potential.

If things go well for Castano in the KBO, he could position himself to re-sign for a guarantee closer to seven figures next year, and with enough success he could draw interest from Japan’s NPB or even on a return to the big leagues. He only just turned 29 in September, so he’s still young enough to make his way back to North American ball in a few years, depending how he fares overseas.

MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

 

 

The Opener: Yamamoto, Bellinger, Greinke

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With 60 days remaining until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today…

1. Yamamoto meeting with teams:

Yesterday, the Dodgers met with NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the 25-year-old hurler continues meeting with clubs interested in his services this offseason. L.A. joins the Giants, Mets, and Yankees among clubs publicly known to have met with Yamamoto this offseason. It was reported yesterday that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays figure to join that quarter in the coming days. A report last week indicated that the field for Yamamoto’s services had thinned to seven teams, with every team that has met with Yamamoto to this point except for Boston named alongside two “mystery teams.”

2. Is Bellinger’s market crystalizing?

The Giants shocked the baseball world by landing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year deal worth $113MM. The signing of Lee takes another top left-handed bat off of the market following Shohei Ohtani’s decision to sign with the Dodgers and the swap that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees. Both the Giants and Yankees were considered top suitors for center fielder Cody Bellinger prior to their additions of Soto and Lee. It’s possible that the recent run on left-handed bats has left Bellinger with only a handful of potential destinations left.

Remaining suitors for Bellinger could include the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Mariners. Toronto and Chicago, the latter of whom Bellinger bounced back with in 2023, were among the final bidders on Ohtani before he landed in L.A. The Mariners, meanwhile, have little certainty in their outfield beyond Julio Rodriguez and would benefit from Bellinger’s 15.6% strikeout rate last year as they look to create a more contact-oriented lineup. It’s also at least plausible that the Giants have the wherewithal necessary to land both Bellinger and Lee, though given the club’s logjam in the outfield they may be better suited toward spending in other areas at this point.

3. Greinke joins the market:

After months of uncertainty regarding the plans of future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke, the veteran right-hander is reportedly planning to continue his career in 2024. The news puts Greinke in line to become the 20th pitcher in major league history to record 3,000 career strikeouts, a milestone he sits just 21 punchouts away from. Beyond the potential history a 21st big league season from Greinke figures to involve, the update also adds another quality back-of-the-rotation starter to a market ravenous for starting pitching options. While Greinke struggled to the first below-average ERA+ of his career since 2005 last season, it’s easy to see a club taking a chance on Greinke given the solid deals back-end starters like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have received so far this offseason.

In the recent past, Greinke hasn’t had much impact on the wider free agent market as he’s seemingly limited himself to pitching in Kansas City. However, the news of Greinke’s decision to continue pitching comes on the heels of the Royals committing to Seth Lugo on a three-year pact, leaving open the possibility that Greinke will need to look elsewhere to continue his career. If Greinke hopes to stick with familiar clubs, both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks could use rotation fortifications, even after Arizona landed Eduardo Rodriguez earlier in the month.

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