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Nationals Sign Spenser Watkins

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Dec. 18: It’s a minor league deal for Watkins, tweets Andrew Golden of the Washington Post. He’ll vie for a roster spot in camp next spring.

Dec. 17: The Nationals have signed right-hander Spenser Watkins, as revealed by Watkins himself in a statement on X (via the account of his agency, Gaeta Sports Management).  Reports from earlier this week suggested that Watkins was close to a deal with a KBO League team, yet as Watkins explained in his statement, he chose to stay in the United States due to the upcoming birth of his daughter in January.

Watkins, 31, pitched in only Major League game in 2023, allowing five runs over 4 1/3 innings in a start for the Athletics on August 15.  The rest of his season was spent at the Triple-A level, with Watkins delivering a 7.86 ERA over 71 combined innings for the top affiliates of the A’s, Astros, and Orioles.

A 30th-round pick for the Tigers in the 2014 draft, Watkins didn’t make his MLB debut until 2021, when he had caught on with the Orioles on a free agent deal.  The right-hander posted an 8.07 ERA over 54 2/3 frames for Baltimore that season, and then a 4.70 ERA in 105 1/3 innings in 2022.  All in all, that translates to a 5.97 ERA in 164 1/3 career innings for Watkins in the Show, as well as a 13.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.

Working as a starter in 31 of his 40 MLB games and in 122 of his 149 career minor league games, Watkins projects as a depth arm at the Triple-A level.  The Nationals are known to be looking for pitching this winter, and while the team will keep looking for more proven upgrades, depth arms like Watkins are a useful commodity to eat innings.

Angels Reportedly Sign Tayron Guerrero To Minor League Deal

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Right-hander Tayron Guerrero has signed a minor league deal with the Angels, reports Francys Romero.

Guerrero, 33 in January, has 106 innings of major league experience but hasn’t appeared in the bigs since 2019. He signed a minor league deal with the Reds going into 2023 but was released in June after posting a dreadful 11.51 earned run average in 22 2/3 innings. That’s a small sample of work and the ERA was surely inflated by unlucky numbers in terms of batting average on balls in play and runners stranded, but he also walked more batters than he struck out.

After being released, he caught on with the Diablos Rojos del Mexico of the Mexican League. He posted a 1.17 ERA there, but in an even smaller sample of 7 2/3 innings. He then joined Naranjeros de Hermosillo for some winter ball in Mexico. He has a 1.10 ERA in 16 1/3 innings for that club, striking out 26 of the 65 batters he has faced while walking 7, respective rates of 40% and 10.8%. Romero relays that Guerrero hit 101.6 mph on the radar gun.

That velocity has long been an enticing part of the package with Guerrero but he hasn’t always been able to harness it. He walked 13.6% of batters faced in his brief major league tenure and 18.8% of Triple-A hitters when with the Reds in 2023. He has been in better form since being released and heading to Mexico, as he didn’t issue any walks for the Diablos and then had a reasonable rate with the Naranjeros.

For the Angels, there’s no risk in bringing him aboard via a minor league deal and seeing what his control looks like early in the year. If everything is clicking, perhaps Guerrero can earn his way onto a roster spot, though he is now out of options and can’t be sent back down to the minors without being exposed to waivers.

Gomes: Dodgers Seek Additional Starting Pitching

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The Dodgers added a playoff-caliber arm to their staff when acquiring Tyler Glasnow from the Rays, but they’re still searching for more starting pitching, general manager Brandon Gomes told reporters Monday (via Fabian Aradaya of The Athletic).

That shouldn’t come as any real surprise. Los Angeles included a member of its rotation, right-hander Ryan Pepiot, in the package to acquire Glasnow from Tampa Bay, so they didn’t really add to their depth at all in the swap. Glasnow also has a lengthy injury history, with last season’s 120 frames representing a career-high. While the Dodgers surely feel he’s an upgrade on a per-inning basis, they also can’t simply bank on Glasnow making 30 starts and occupying a workhorse role atop the rotation.

As it stands, the L.A. rotation would feature Glasnow, Walker Buehler (who’ll be on an innings limit in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery), Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan. Candidates for the fifth spot include Michael Grove, Gavin Stone, Ryan Yarbrough and prospects Nick Frasso and Landon Knack.

There have already been indications that the Dodgers would continue to be active in the starting pitching market, albeit none as concrete as an on-record declaration from the team’s general manager. The Dodgers have been a prominent participant in the bidding for NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and they’ve also reportedly shown interest in trading for White Sox righty Dylan Cease. Other rumored targets have included free agent righties Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo (who’s since signed with the Royals). A reunion with Clayton Kershaw remains eminently plausible, although Kershaw wouldn’t be available to pitch until next summer at the earliest.

The Dodgers are less than $2MM from the second luxury tax threshold, per Roster Resource’s projections, although their actual bottom-line payroll clocks in under $200MM thanks to deferred money not only in the Shohei Ohtani contract but also the significant deferrals in the Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman deals. As a third-time luxury payor, they’ll effectively be taxed at a 62% clip for the next $20MM they spend and a 95% clip for the $20MM after that, and 110% for any money spent thereafter.

Yamamoto’s lingering presence in free agency has continued to hold up other aspects of the market, though he’ll have to sign a deal by early January — and reports have suggested he could look to finalize a deal before Christmas. Once he’s made a decision, pitchers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman and Giolito could accelerate. Similarly, the White Sox (Cease) and Guardians (Shane Bieber) could increase their efforts to trade prominent starters of their own, knowing that the teams who missed on Yamamoto will be motivated to find alternate options elsewhere.

Braves Release Matt Carpenter

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The Braves have released veteran infielder/designated hitter Matt Carpenter, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Atlanta acquired Carpenter a few days ago, taking on $4MM of this year’s $5.5MM salary (and the associated luxury tax hit) as a means of effectively purchasing left-handed reliever Ray Kerr from the Padres.

While the Braves had hoped to trade Carpenter in similar fashion to Marco Gonzales, Evan White and Max Stassi (all of whom they acquired and quickly dealt away in salary-driven swaps), it seems they weren’t able to find a taker for Carpenter even at that rate. He’ll now be a free agent who’ll cost a new team only the league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster — the Braves and Padres will remain on the hook for the rest of his salary.

Carpenter, 38, had a brilliant bounceback season with the Yankees in 2022 when he slashed .305/.412/.727 with 15 home runs in just 154 trips to the plate. A broken foot ended his season, but that eye-popping resurgence was still enough to land him a two-year, $12MM deal with the Padres last offseason.

Unfortunately for the Padres and Carpenter alike, his 2023 campaign looked more like the 2020-21 version of Carpenter who’d looked to be on the decline. In 237 plate appearances with the Friars last year, Carpenter hit just .176/.322/.319. He still walked at a massive 17.3% clip, but Carpenter’s strikeout rate spiked as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate trended in the other direction. The former Cardinals star’s newfound focus on elevating the ball at career-high levels served him well in 2022, but he perhaps took that too far in ’23, lifting 10 harmless pop-ups in his tiny sample of plate appearances. Given his huge walk and strikeout rates, Carpenter only put 125 balls in play last year — 10 of which were effectively automatic outs.

Now that he’s a free agent and can be signed on a league-minimum MLB deal or even on a minor league deal and spring training invite, Carpenter should draw interest from teams seeking left-handed bats. A return to that Herculean production from the summer of 2022 might not be plausible, but there’d be little to no risk for a new club trying to catch lightning in a bottle in the same manner as the 2022 Yankees did.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a question about a recent transaction, a future transaction or anything else related to the offseason, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Latest On Framber Valdez

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Dec. 18: At least six clubs have reached out to the Astros to check in on Valdez’s potential availability, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Houston isn’t actively seeking to trade Valdez but has at least listened to offers on him.

Dec. 15: Front office personnel from opposing teams are “monitoring” the possibility of the Astros trading star left-hander Framber Valdez, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 30-year-old is coming off his second straight top 10 Cy Young finish.

It’s unsurprising to hear opposing clubs are keeping their eye on Valdez. He’d be an upgrade for any rotation in MLB. He has reached 31 starts in each of the past two seasons, leading the American League with 201 1/3 innings back in 2022. Valdez has paired that volume with excellent results, working to a 3.40 ERA over parts of six seasons in the big leagues. He has allowed 3.13 earned runs per nine over the past three years, striking out 23.5% of batters faced and keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 63% clip.

Given that level of success, plenty of teams would be interested if the Astros put Valdez on the trade market. There’s no indication the Houston front office is seriously entertaining that possibility at this point. In response to trade chatter about third baseman Alex Bregman, Houston GM Dana Brown flatly shot down the idea at the Winter Meetings, saying the team is “trying to win here.”

The club could take a similar stance on Valdez. He’s arguably the best pitcher on a team with championship aspirations. Houston’s rotation is solid but has taken some injury hits in recent months. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are each expected to miss roughly half the season as they rehab arm surgeries. The Astros reacquired Justin Verlander to join Valdez and Cristian Javier in the rotation’s top three. José Urquidy joins second-year pitchers Hunter Brown and J.P. France as possibilities at the back end.

Any argument in favor of a Valdez trade is tied to Houston’s payroll outlook. Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll around $222MM, well above last year’s approximate $180MM Opening Day figure. They’re projected right at the $237MM luxury tax threshold, which they haven’t surpassed since 2020. Dana Brown has been rather forthright about the limited money at the front office’s disposal.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $12.1MM salary in his third of four arbitration seasons. With a typically strong season, he’d likely be in line for something in the $18MM range in 2025. Valdez is on track to hit free agency during the 2025-26 offseason at age 32. Brown has previously expressed a desire to extend key players like Valdez, Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve. Thus far, the second-year GM has only worked out a long-term deal with Javier, although there’s a general expectation they’ll be able to get something done with Altuve at some point.

While a trade of a veteran on a notable salary would provide some payroll flexibility, it’s worth noting that Houston doesn’t have a ton of needs on the roster. The Astros replaced Martín Maldonado with Víctor Caratini behind the dish. They appear content with their in-house outfielders despite losing Michael Brantley. While they could stand to add middle innings depth after seeing Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton hit free agency, trading Valdez to create spending room for a low-leverage relievers wouldn’t make much sense in the short term. A deal could recoup controllable pitching and add some talent to a barren farm system, but it’d be at the expense of a win-now roster.

One less impactful possibility would be to entertain offers on Urquidy. He’s only projected for a $3.5MM salary, so the cost savings would be fairly modest. Yet the front office could look to move him on the heels of an injury-plagued season in which he turned in a 5.29 ERA across 16 appearances. Rosenthal notes that the Astros have looked to trade Urquidy on prior occasions. The return wouldn’t be anywhere near what they’d receive were they to move Valdez, of course, but a deal that sends Urquidy to a rotation-needy team for bullpen help isn’t far-fetched.

The Opener: Orioles, Outfield Market, Padres

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As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Could the Orioles reach a lease agreement today?

Earlier this year, the Orioles and Maryland governor Wes Moore initially reported that they had reached an agreement that would keep the Orioles in Baltimore for at least 30 years. That deal was later revealed to be a non-binding “memorandum of understanding,” and no deal has come together in the months since. That could change today according to an announcement late last week from Moore’s office that a long-term lease agreement between the Orioles and the Maryland Stadium Authority will be voted on by Maryland state officials today. The agreement is expected to go before both the stadium authority and the state’s Board of Public Works this afternoon. Time is running out on an agreement, as the club’s lease at Camden Yards expires at the end of the calendar year.

2. Is the outfield market heating up?

The positional market has lagged behind the pitching market for the most part this offseason, and while infielder Jeimer Candelario and DH Shohei Ohtani have both signed in recent weeks, the outfield market was falling even further behind in free agency with a focus on trades of players like Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, Tyler O’Neill, and Jarred Kelenic. Fortunately, the outfield market has begun to heat up over the past week as KBO star Jung Hoo Lee landed in San Francisco on a six-year deal.

Since then, the rest of the outfield market has begun to catch up as Hunter Renfroe reached an agreement on a two-year pact with the Royals. Just yesterday, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and the Diamondbacks came together on a multi-year contract that will keep the reigning NL championship club’s left fielder in town for the next two to four seasons. It’s possible that the recent movement on the outfield market could spur movement involving a corner outfield class led by Teoscar Hernandez that also features noteworthy names such as Tommy Pham, Joc Pederson, and Jorge Soler.

3. What’s next for the Padres?

The Padres kicked off their offseason earlier this month by trading away Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees in exchange for a package of five players headlined by right-hander Michael King and top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe. While the club was initially believed to be motivated to move Soto by a desire to open up budget space to repair a pitching staff that had lost four starting pitchers (including reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell) and star closer Josh Hader to free agency, reporting from this past weekend indicates that San Diego may have less room in the budget to work with than initially believed even after dealing away Soto.

The Padres are reportedly considering attempting to duck under the luxury tax threshold this offseason, a strategy that could leave them with just $30MM to spend as they look to add multiple arms to both the rotation and bullpen while also filling out their recently-vacated outfield alongside franchise cornerstone Fernando Tatis Jr. Given the club’s complicated financial situation and the number of holes left on the roster, the club’s path back into contention seems likely to remain unclear until president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office make their next move.

KBO’s KIA Tigers Re-Sign Socrates Brito

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The KIA Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that outfielder Socrates Brito is returning for a third season with the team (hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net).  Brito will receive $800K in guaranteed money in the form of a $500K salary and a $300K signing bonus, plus he can earn an additional $400K in contract incentives.

It’s easy to see why the Tigers were interested in a reunion, as Brito has hit .298/.349/.478 with 37 homers over his two seasons (1162 plate appearances) in South Korea.  The 31-year-old Brito has primarily been the club’s everyday center fielder, while also seeing some action in both corner outfield positions.

Formerly a prospect in the Diamondbacks’ farm system, Brito showed some signs of the dreaded “Quad-A” label, as his impressive .287/.339/.467 slash line over 1960 Triple-A plate appearances didn’t translate to the big leagues, albeit in a pretty limited sample size of MLB playing time — Brito hit only .179/.216/.309 over 218 PA with the D’Backs and Blue Jays from 2015-19.  Brito signed minor league deals with the Pirates and Yankees in 2020 and 2021 without any more time in the majors, and Brito also had to endure a personal tragedy in 2020 when his brother passed away from COVID-19.

There hasn’t been any public indication that Brito has received any looks from Major League teams during his tenure in the KBO League, or even that Brito has necessarily been on the lookout for a return to North American baseball.  There’s certainly still time for Brito to explore such possibilities in the future, but for now, he has carved a nice niche for himself with the Tigers.

Blue Jays Interested In Jonathan India

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Jonathan India’s name has been swirling in trade rumors for months, and the Blue Jays are the latest team to show some interest in the Reds second baseman, according to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network (X link).  Toronto has been mentioned as a speculative fit for India given the Jays’ need for second base help, though there isn’t any indication that a trade might be close, or whether this is anything beyond due diligence on the Blue Jays’ part.

Since Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield are both in the free agent market, the Jays have been left pretty thin at both second and third base.  In-house candidates Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, and Ernie Clement are all on the big league roster, while any of Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, or Leo Jimenez could make their Major League debuts in 2024 and work their way into the infield picture.

While Toronto has plenty of options in terms of volume, however, there isn’t much in the way of proven Major League capability.  Biggio and Espinal have been inconsistent during their big league tenures, Schneider and Clement both hit very well in small sample sizes in 2023, and the rest have no big league track records at all (though Martinez and Barger are highly-regarded prospects).

India could provide an answer at second base, though the former NL Rookie of the Year isn’t exactly a sure thing coming off two somewhat underwhelming seasons.  Since winning the ROY in 2021, India has hit .246/.333/.394 with 27 homers over 960 plate appearances for Cincinnati, with hamstring injuries and plantar fasciitis impacting his ability to stay on the field.  Public defensive metrics have also been very unimpressed with India’s glovework, so his contributions as a second baseman specifically could be limited.

Even with these factors in mind, India just turned 27 two days ago and is only entering the first of three arbitration-eligible years, so Cincinnati normally wouldn’t be looking to trade such a controllable player.  And, technically, the Reds aren’t open to a deal, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall has stated that the team isn’t “motivated” to move India elsewhere.  The question of big league experience is also a factor in Cincinnati, as while the Reds are overloaded with young infielders ready for more MLB time, Krall also values the stability and depth India brings in the event of injury problems, or if some of the youngsters need more minor league seasoning.

That said, the Reds’ signing of Jeimer Candelario only added to the infield surplus.  If Candelario is now taking regular time at third base, that leaves India, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Noelvi Marte all competing for middle infield spots.  Even if Candelario slides over to first base, Christian Encarnacion-Strand also needs a place to play, and the DH position provides some a few extra at-bats for the Reds to juggle all these options.

The fit in Toronto also wouldn’t be perfect.  As noted, India would be a defensive downgrade at second base, and the keystone is also the better defensive spot for most of the Blue Jays’ in-house options.  In his look at India’s trade market last month, MLBTR’s Nick Deeds observed that while the Jays are planning to contend in 2024, they also might not want to block Schneider or Clement entirely from at least semi-regular playing time.  Speculatively, an India trade package could involve the Jays sending one of their most experienced infielders (i.e. Biggio or Espinal) back to Cincinnati so the Reds could have some of the depth they crave, though pitching is the Reds’ greatest need.

It has been a quiet winter in terms of actual transactions if not headlines in Toronto, as the Blue Jays’ business has in some ways been impeded by their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.  Obviously GM Ross Atkins and his front office weren’t singularly focused on Ohtani over the offseason’s first six weeks, yet after coming up short to the Dodgers in the Ohtani race, the Jays still have a pretty full to-do list that includes the two infield positions, left field, DH, and perhaps the rotation and bullpen.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/17/23

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Some minor league moves from around the baseball world…

  • The Royals released Cody Poteet, according to the right-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Poteet underwent a Tommy John surgery in August 2022 and as a result missed almost all of the 2023 season, save for two innings of work in one game with Triple-A Omaha in late September.  Kansas City signed Poteet to a minors deal last winter in anticipation that he’d spend most of the season in recovery, and the 29-year-old will now enter free agency again with at least a more optimistic health situation.  Poteet’s MLB resume consists of a 4.45 ERA over 58 2/3 innings with the Marlins in 2021-22, as well as a 3.80 ERA in 521 2/3 career minor league frames.
  • The Dodgers signed outfielder Austin Beck to a minor league contract, as Beck revealed via his X account.  Beck selected sixth overall by the Athletics in the 2017 draft, though his eight games with Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate in 2021 represents his highest step on the minor league ladder.  Multiple injuries have set back Beck’s progress, most notably a torn ACL that cost him the entire 2023 season.  The Dodgers will take a flier on Beck to see if there’s any late-bloomer potential now that he’s healthy, and Beck is still only 25 years old.

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