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The Opener: Yamamoto, Matsui, Pirates

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As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will Yamamoto get $300MM?

The top free agent remaining at this point in the offseason is right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The 25-year-old NPB ace has previously been reported as having seven “finalists” for his services: the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies, and Blue Jays. Reporting has since indicated that Philadelphia and Toronto are likely on the periphery of the sweepstakes, while last night rumors surfaced that the Dodgers were considering making an offer to Yamamoto in the $250-300MM range.

An offer even on the smaller end of that range would make Yamamoto’s contract the second-largest in MLB history for a starting pitcher (ignoring two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani) behind only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, edging out Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg’s $245MM guarantee from the 2019-20 offseason. The bidding process for Yamamoto’s services is expected to continue throughout the week, leaving the door open for other finalists’ offers to reach or even surpass the reported range L.A. is considering.

2. Is a Matsui deal on the horizon?

Yamamoto isn’t the only NPB pitcher getting buzz of late. As of yesterday, the Padres and left-handed reliever Yuki Matsui were reportedly close on a multi-year deal. Matsui, 28, has posted sub-2.00 ERAs out of the bullpen in Japan in each of the past three seasons, with a combined 1.42 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate across 152 innings during that time. That show of dominance overseas earned Matsui the No. 43 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. The Cardinals, Red Sox and Cubs are among the teams that have been connected to Matsui this offseason outside of San Diego, though with a deal seemingly on the verge of coming together, those teams may be forced to look elsewhere for bullpen help going forward.

3. Pirates facing roster crunch:

The Pirates have begun making moves to add to the club in recent days as they look to improve upon a 76-86 season during which the club showed flashes of success but ultimately finished fourth in the NL Central. Two recent moves made to improve the club’s standing were the addition of left-hander Martin Perez to the rotation and the club’s reported reunion with veteran DH Andrew McCutchen, who will don on a Pirates uniform for an 11th season in his 16-year MLB career. Before either deal can become official, however, the Pirates must clear space on their 40-man roster, which is currently full even without Perez and McCutchen having officially signed. Pittsburgh could look to make a minor trade or two in the coming days to clear space on the roster for their recent signings, or simply designate two players on the 40-man roster for assignment to make room.

Blue Jays Have Some Interest In Rhys Hoskins, Justin Turner

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The Blue Jays have some level of interest in Rhys Hoskins and Justin Turner as they evaluate their options at designated hitter, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s part of a wide net being cast by the front office, as Nicholson-Smith reiterates previously reported ties to J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson and Joey Votto as well.

Toronto has a vacancy at DH with Brandon Belt returning to the open market. Bringing in a left-handed bat to complement a lineup led by Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Danny Jansen would be ideal, but the interest in Martinez suggests they’re not limiting themselves solely to lefty hitters. GM Ross Atkins has alluded to the potential for multiple lineup additions, after all. The Jays could add a right-handed DH while bringing in a lefty bat in the outfield.

Hoskins lost the 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He’d likely have made it back as a DH or pinch-hitting option had the Phillies made the World Series. While that didn’t happen, the 30-year-old (31 in March) projects as one of the better offensive players on the market. Hoskins has been a consistent middle-of-the-order presence throughout his career, compiling a .242/.353/.492 line. He has hit between 27 and 34 home runs in each of the four full seasons he’s played while running better than average walk rates on an annual basis.

Turner has been a consistently strong lineup presence as well. He hasn’t had a below-average offensive season since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. At age 39, he’s no longer suited for 140+ starts at third base. Yet Turner could serve as a primary DH while rotating in at the hot corner, where the Jays have a question with Matt Chapman still in free agency. Turner is still more than capable of handling a primary DH role. He’s coming off an impressive .276/.345/.455, 23-homer showing for the Red Sox.

It doesn’t seem either player is a priority target for the Toronto front office. Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could wait out the market for another few weeks to determine whether anyone in a broad group of hitters of interest presents strong value later in the offseason.

Hoskins has also drawn reported interest from the Cubs, Mariners and Nationals. Turner has been on the radar of the incumbent Red Sox, Mets and Diamondbacks. MLBTR predicted Hoskins to land a two-year, $36MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, although a standard one-year pillow contract is also possible. Turner seems likelier to sign for one year given his age, but he could also command a salary in the $16-18MM range.

Dodgers Considering $250MM+ Offer To Yamamoto

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The Dodgers are considering presenting an offer in the $250-300MM range to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. Reports from yesterday indicated that teams are likely to put forth contract proposals to the NPB star this week, with a decision perhaps coming by Monday.

Yamamoto’s landing spot and price point are perhaps the biggest remaining story of the offseason. The 25-year-old righty has emerged as the clear top free agent after Shohei Ohtani came off the board. It is believed the field has narrowed to seven teams: the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and Blue Jays.

This morning, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic indicated Philadelphia and Toronto are more on the outside of the market and could be longer shots. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith echoes that with regards to the Jays, reporting that Toronto is less likely to be one of the top finalists on Yamamoto than they were on Ohtani.

Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that the pitcher’s visit to the East Coast last week only consisted of a stop in New York to chat with the Yankees and Mets. While the Red Sox and Phils conducted in-person interviews with Yamamoto, officials from both teams met with the pitcher and his representatives in Los Angeles.

In recent weeks, there has been increasing speculation the price tag could exceed $300MM. That’s particularly true when considering the accompanying posting fee that would be owed to his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. An MLB club would owe the Buffaloes 20% of the contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM), and 15% of additional spending.

An offer of $250MM to Yamamoto, which seems a conservative estimate of his earning power at this point given the robust interest, would require a $39.375MM posting fee. That’d put the total commitment a little north of $289MM. If a team were to offer Yamamoto $300MM, that’d come with a $46.875MM posting sum that pushes their spending to nearly $347MM.

Of course, that’s even before getting to luxury tax implications — which would come into play for the known suitors aside from Boston and San Francisco. The Dodgers have a competitive balance tax projection around $256MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That places them right on the border of the $257MM second threshold of penalization.

As a payor for the third straight year, they’d be taxed at a 62% rate for spending between $257MM and $277MM and at a 95% clip on money from $277MM to $297MM (with a 110% tax on any spending thereafter). Signing Yamamoto would push them past the $277MM threshold with ease, quite likely tacking on another $17MM or more in taxes in year one. To be clear, only the amount paid to Yamamoto would factor into the competitive balance tax calculation; the posting fee is not part of that calculus.

Of course, the deferrals in the Ohtani deal (along with lesser but still notable deferrals for Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman) lower their immediate raw payroll. Their actual salary commitments for next season are south of $200MM, well below the approximate $223MM mark they carried into 2023.

Los Angeles certainly isn’t the only team weighing an offer in this range for the three-time Sawamura Award winner. If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, Harris suggests that L.A. is likelier to turn to the trade market for pitching help as opposed to pivoting to another top free agent like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The Dodgers already struck for Tyler Glasnow on the trade front but remain on the hunt for starting pitching behind their top three of Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller.

Cubs To Hire Darren Holmes As Bullpen Coach

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The Cubs are hiring Darren Holmes as bullpen coach and Mark Strittmatter to serve as catching coach, reports Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic. Those are expected to be the final two hires for Craig Counsell’s first staff in the Windy City.

Holmes joins the organization after four years in Baltimore. The Orioles initially hired him to work as bullpen coach going into the 2020 season. A winter later, he was promoted to assistant pitching coach. Holmes held that role under Chris Holt for three seasons before Baltimore changed its pitching voices this past October. Holt was moved back into an overhead role with the organization, while Holmes departed entirely.

The 57-year-old Holmes pitched parts of 13 seasons as a big league reliever. Before his time in Baltimore, he had spent five seasons as the bullpen coach in Colorado. He’ll bring plenty of experience to a relief corps led by Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. Chicago relievers finished 13th in ERA (3.85) last season. They were fourth in strikeout rate (26%) but issued walks at an 11% clip that was lower only than the 12% mark posted by a rebuilding A’s club.

Strittmatter, 54, has worked with catchers in the Rockies organization for the better part of two decades. He had some experience on a big league staff before serving as minor league catching coordinator since 2013. Strittmatter briefly reached the majors as a player in 1998.

Sharma notes that the Cubs are expected to soon announce the entirety of the coaching staff. Holmes and Strittmatter will round out a group of previously-reported hirings including Ryan Flaherty as bench coach, returnee Dustin Kelly (hitting coach) and new addition John Mallee (assistant hitting coach) on the offensive side. Tommy Hottovy and Daniel Moskos are back as the lead and assistant pitching coaches, respectively. Mike Napoli and Willie Harris will return as the base coaches.

Amazon, Diamond Sports Discussing Potential Streaming Deal

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December 19: Evan Drellich of the Athletic reports that Diamond has streaming rights for five of the MLB teams whose broadcasting deals it covers: Detroit, Kansas City, Miami, Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. Even if an agreement between Amazon and Diamond is reached with regards to streaming, they would need to negotiate additional deals with MLB if they want to stream games for any of the other six clubs.

December 18: One of MLB’s bigger off-field stories of the past year has been the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group. The conglomerate’s struggles to meet its broadcasting deals has left teams contracted with Diamond — which operates the Bally Sports regional networks — in uncertain positions about the revenues they can expect from their local television contracts. That has been reflected in a few clubs (e.g. Padres, Rangers, Twins) cutting or plateauing spending.

As Diamond’s bankruptcy process continues, Lauren Thomas and Joe Flint of the Wall Street Journal report that the corporation is engaged with Amazon about a potential multi-year streaming agreement. The discussions, which are not complete and would need to be approved by the bankruptcy court even if Diamond and Amazon reach an agreement, would see Amazon invest in Diamond with a goal of eventually acquiring streaming rights for teams on those broadcasts. Diamond would continue to operate its cable networks.

There has been a general expectation that Diamond’s reorganization will see the business abandon all of its broadcasting deals with MLB after the 2024 season. Evan Drellich of the Athletic wrote last week that Diamond and MLB were nearing agreement on a deal that would at least provide clarity on how which of its 11 contracts* it would honor for the ’24 campaign. The Athletic reported last month that the company was considering dropping its contracts with the Rangers and Guardians before next season.

Even if Diamond meets most or all of its obligations for next season, those clubs won’t have clarity on how things will play out in 2025 and beyond. The potential for Amazon to support the company in exchange for streaming opportunities offers some optimism, but it remains very early in that process.

* The Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals and Tigers have existing contracts with Diamond. The company abandoned deals with the Padres and Diamondbacks during the 2023 season, while its contract with the Twins expired at the end of the year.

A’s, Trevor Gott Agree To Major League Deal

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December 19: The A’s have officially announced the signing of Gott to a one-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relays the financials. Gott is guaranteed $1.5MM, with bonuses of $50K available for making 45 and 50 appearances. There’s a $100K bonus if he’s traded.

December 15: The A’s are in agreement with reliever Trevor Gott on a major league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X link). Financial terms are not clear. The A’s have a full 40-man roster, meaning they’ll need to make a corresponding DFA once the contract is official. Gott is represented by Sports One Athlete Management.

Gott was non-tendered by the Mets. He’d been projected for a modest $2MM salary, but New York apparently didn’t envision him holding a middle innings spot all season. He should have that opportunity in Oakland, where he’s one of the most experienced pitchers in a bullpen full of uncertainty.

The 31-year-old righty has appeared in parts of eight MLB seasons, although he has between five and six years of service time overall. Gott has appeared with the Angels, Nationals, Giants, Brewers, Mariners and Mets over the course of his career. He turned in serviceable middle relief results between Seattle and New York this year, pitching to a 4.19 ERA through 58 innings.

Gott struck hitters out at an average 23.8% clip while walking fewer than 8% of opponents. He didn’t miss many bats on a per-pitch basis, generating swinging strikes on only 9.2% of his offerings. That came with a slight velocity dip. After averaging north of 95 MPH on his sinker and four-seam in 2022, he sat in the 93-94 MPH range last season.

Even in the absence of overpowering stuff, Gott posted better results than most Oakland relievers. Only the Rockies and Royals had a higher bullpen ERA than the 5.20 mark turned in by the A’s. Among the team’s relievers with 20+ frames, Austin Pruitt, Trevor May and Dany Jiménez worked to a sub-4.00 ERA. Pruitt was waived and elected free agency; May retired. Jiménez found his decent results in 22 1/3 innings with mediocre strikeout and walk rates.

Gott could therefore pick up some high-leverage work for skipper Mark Kotsay. He’ll return to free agency again next winter. As a decent veteran arm on what’s surely a low-cost guarantee, he could find himself on the move for a mid-level prospect at next summer’s trade deadline.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Hire Dillon Lawson To Hitting Coordinator Role

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The Red Sox have hired Dillon Lawson to a hitting coordinator role, with Lawson himself relaying the news to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. Lawson will be working primarily with Boston’s upper-level minor leaguers.

Lawson was hired to work in the Yankees’ organization in 2018 and made the jump to that club’s major league hitting coach prior to the 2022 season. With the club later struggling in 2023, the Yanks made the surprising decision to fire Lawson in July, the first time they fired a coach mid-season since Brian Cashman became general manager in 1998.

Sean Casey took over for that job for the second half and didn’t really have much of an obvious impact. It’s always difficult to assign blame or credit when it comes to coaches and the players they work with, but the Yanks had a wRC+ of 96 before Lawson was fired this year and a 92 after. Casey decided not to come back for 2024, with the Yankees hiring James Rowson to take on the hitting coach job next year.

Per Kuty’s report, Lawson is already familiar with some employees of the Red Sox, including Jason Ochart, Peter Fatse, Ben Rosenthal and Luis Ortiz. “I’m excited to be joining a great team that’s already moving in the right direction,” Lawson said.

Royals, Kris Bubic Avoid Arbitration

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The Royals announced today that they have avoided arbitration with left-hander Kris Bubic. The southpaw will make $2.35MM next year, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. That’s just a bit below the $2.4MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Bubic, 26, was selected 40th overall in the 2018 draft, which was a notable pivot point for the franchise. The club had five picks in the first 58 selections of that draft and used all of those on pitchers: Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch IV, Bubic and Jonathan Bowlan. The fact that none of those picks has worked out exactly as hoped is a significant part of the club struggling to emerge from a lengthy rebuild.

In the case of Bubic, he had a 4.89 earned run average at the end of the 2022 season, having logged 309 innings at the major league level to that point. He came into 2023 looking to have made some improvements but required Tommy John surgery in April. He’ll surely begin the 2024 campaign on the injured list but could perhaps rejoin the club’s rotation by midseason.

How much stock to put into his strong start in 2023 is a matter of debate. On the one hand, it was just three starts and 16 innings, so small sample size caveats obviously apply. But if one wanted to put an optimistic spin on it, that wouldn’t be totally unjustified. A 3.94 ERA in three starts isn’t mind-blowing, but he had a .375 batting average on balls in play in that time. His 2.63 FIP and 3.55 SIERA suggest he may have deserved better. His 23.5% strikeout rate was solid but his 2.9% walk rate and 52.1% ground ball rate were both very strong.

For those looking for a deeper dive, both Eno Sarris of The Athletic and Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs took a look at Bubic last year and found things to like. The lefty was featuring increased velocity, a different release point and a new slider. Perhaps the changed arsenal provides an explanation for the better results, but it is still a very small sample.

The Royals have signed a couple of free agents to bolster their rotation, inking both Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Those two should join Cole Ragans, Singer, Jordan Lyles and Daniel Lynch IV in the rotation mix. Bubic will hopefully force his way into the picture at some point, depending on how his rehab progresses in the coming months.

Bubic qualified for arbitration last year as a Super Two player, earning $2.2MM in 2023. He will be limited to a fairly similar salary in 2024, a reflection of his mostly lost season. He’ll be eligible for two more arbitration passes before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

Dodgers Acquire Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot; Glasnow Signed To Contract Extension

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December 19: Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, the extension is actually valued at $111,562,500 over four years, with Glasnow to make $30MM from 2025 to 2027. The player option in 2028 is valued at $21,562,500, slightly higher than previous reporting. Heyman’s framing also suggests that Glasnow will choose on his option first. If he turns it down, then the Dodgers will get to decide whether or not to trigger a $30MM club option.

December 16, 3:33pm: USAToday’s Bob Nightengale relays the full contract breakdown for Glasnow, reporting that the 2028 player option is worth $21.5MM. This accounts for the previously unexplained $1.5MM discrepancy between the reported contract breakdown and the Dodgers’ announced $136.5MM figure.

12:08pm: The Dodgers and Rays finalized the four-player trade that will sent right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot, and $4MM in cash considerations to Los Angeles in exchange for right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca.  News of the trade first broke a few days ago, with the final hurdle being the Dodgers’ ability to sign Glasnow to a contract extension.  That deal has now also been completed, with L.A. announcing that Glasnow has agreed to a new long-term pact worth $136.5MM.  Glasnow is represented by Wasserman.

As per the terms reported yesterday by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the new contract will see Glasnow earn $110MM in new money over the course of the 2025-28 seasons.  Glasnow was already slated to earn $25MM in 2024 according to the terms of his prior contract with the Rays, and the new deal with L.A. breaks down as $90MM in salary over the 2025-27 seasons, and then the Dodgers hold a $30MM club option on Glasnow’s services for 2028.  If the team declines that option, Glasnow can exercise a $20MM player option for 2028.  Since Passan’s numbers only add up to $135MM rather than the Dodgers’ announced figure of $136.5MM, that extra $1.5MM has yet to be accounted for, possibly a signing bonus or a bit of extra guaranteed money on one of the years.

Unlike Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM mega-deal with the Dodgers from last week, Glasnow’s extension doesn’t contain any deferred money.  As such, it will be entirely portioned out onto the Dodgers’ luxury tax bills based on a $27.3MM average annual value over the next five seasons.  According to Roster Resource’s calculations, Los Angeles has an estimated luxury tax number of roughly $253.7MM for 202 — still under the $257MM secondary CBT tier, thanks to all of Ohtani’s deferrals lowering his tax-related AAV to $46MM per season.  Still, with a number of roster needs still be addressed, the Dodgers’ tax bill could certainly still approach or exceed the next penalty tier of $277MM between now and Opening Day.

Glasnow has been seen as a possible trade candidate basically since the moment he inked his previous two-year, $30.35MM extension with Tampa Bay during the 2022 season.  Signed when Glasnow was recovering from Tommy John surgery, the deal saw $25MM of the salary backloaded into the 2024 season, making it likely that the cost-conscious Rays would try to unload the right-hander beforehand.

The 30-year-old’s availability dovetailed with the Dodgers’ need for pitching this winter, as the Los Angeles rotation is full of injury-related question marks (i.e. Walker Buehler, and possibly Dustin May at midseason), pitchers without much big league experience (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone), and a swingman in Ryan Yarbrough who may be best suited for bullpen duty.  Pepiot was another member of that young crop of arms, but he’ll now head to Tampa Bay as he enters his third season of MLB duty.

In moving Glasnow and Margot and factoring in the $4MM in cash considerations, the Rays unloaded $33MM worth of salary for two players making the Major League minimum, in a move reminiscent of many budget-trimming, sell-high types of trades Tampa has become known for over the years.  The Rays’ success rate in these deals is almost a cliche by this point, and even if Tampa Bay fans have become weary of the team’s continual roster churn and perpetually low-spending ways, the Rays’ ability to field competitive teams speaks for itself.  Pepiot figures to step right into the rotation spot left open by Glasnow, while Deluca may not be guaranteed a spot in the Opening Day outfield, but he’ll at least be part of the shuttle heading back and forth between Triple-A since the outfielder has two minor league option years remaining.

The right-handed hitting Margot figures to move into a part-time role in the Dodgers’ outfield picture, acting as a complement to the left-handed James Outman and Jason Heyward.  Margot has played primarily as a center fielder and right fielder, thus lining up well with Outman and Heyward’s projected positions.  Mookie Betts will be taking over as the Dodgers’ new everyday second baseman in 2024, so it’s safe to guess that L.A. will aim to add more outfield depth if Betts will be spending most of his time on the dirt.

MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams broke down the Glasnow extension in larger detail yesterday, while Darragh McDonald outlined the news of the four-player trade agreement for MLBTR on Thursday.  Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest first reported the four principal players in the trade.  Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on the extension.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the Rays’ inclusion of the $4MM in salary offset.

Yankees Claim Jeter Downs From Nationals

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The Yankees announced that they have claimed infielder Jeter Downs off waivers from the Nationals. The infielder was designated for assignment a week ago when the Nats signed right-hander Dylan Floro.

Downs, 25, was once a prospect of note, having been selected 32nd overall by the Reds in 2017 and later appearing on top 100 lists. His time as a minor leaguer saw him change organizations twice as part of a major trade, first going to the Dodgers in a seven-player swap and then to the Red Sox in the deal for Mookie Betts and David Price. The Yankees now have two of the three players that went to Boston in that deal, having acquired Alex Verdugo earlier this month and leaving the Sox with just Connor Wong.

But as for Downs, he hasn’t yet delivered on that prospect hype. In 963 minor league plate appearances over the past three years, he has hit just .200/.309/.365 for a wRC+ of 80. Due to that performance, he’s been allowed to make just 50 trips to the plate at the major league level, with a slash of just .182/.260/.273 in those. The Sox put him on waivers prior to 2023, with the Nats putting in a claim but now letting him go via the same door he came in.

Despite that tepid offensive production, there’s little harm in the Yankees putting in a claim. They had three open roster spots to work with, as this claim brings their 40-man count to 38. Downs still has an option, meaning he can be stashed in the minors as depth for the upcoming season, if he sticks on the 40-man for that long. It’s also worth pointing out that he’s still young and could perhaps turn the narrative of his career around.

The Yanks are currently slated to have an infield of DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo with Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera in the mix for bench/utility roles. Downs has played all three infield spots to the left of first base and even had a brief stint in center field this year, allowing him to provide some depth at various spots.

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