The Reds announced that they have signed righty Frankie Montas, to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2025. It’s reportedly a $16MM deal for Montas, who is represented by the Boras Corporation. He’ll make $14MM this year with a $2MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option.
With Nick Martinez signed to a two-year, $26MM deal last month, Montas is the second Boras client to join Cincinnati’s rotation mix. While Martinez might still factor into the Reds’ bullpen plans, Montas is more of a clear-cut starter, assuming that he is back to full health after a lost 2023 season.
The Reds’ projected rotation of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Lodolo have a lot of potential but also a lot of injury questions and not a lot of big league experience. As a result, the Reds were known to be looking for starting pitching help this winter, and have been linked to a wide array of names on both the free agent and trade fronts. A trade has always seemed to be the likeliest route for pitching help given Cincinnati’s wealth of minor league depth, yet the Reds have also been linked to such free agents as Seth Lugo, Yariel Rodriguez, and old friend Sonny Gray.
Gray’s name might linger in the background of today’s signing, as the Reds would surely love to see Montas replicate Gray as a starter who got back on track in Cincinnati after struggling in the Bronx. After finishing sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting with the A’s in 2021, Montas continued to pitch well in 2022 and was one of the more sought-after pitchers at the trade deadline. Oakland ultimately moved Montas to the Yankees as part of a six-player trade, yet things went haywire for Montas almost as soon as the deal was completed.
Montas struggled to a 6.35 ERA over eight starts and 39 2/3 innings for the Yankees, as he tried to pitch through some shoulder problems that bothered him prior to the trade. He spent some time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, which unfortunately set the stage for his nightmare of a 2023 campaign. The right-hander ended up undergoing labrum cleanup surgery in February and pitched in just one game (1 1/3 innings on September 30) last year, at least giving himself some peace of mind health-wise as he entered the offseason.
The Yankees felt good enough about Montas’ shoulder that they had some interest in re-signing him this winter, yet Montas will now head to Cincinnati for a fresh start. His deal almost exactly matched the one-year, $15MM pact that MLB Trade Rumors projected for Montas in our top 50 free agents list, with Montas sitting 44th in the ranking. If $16MM seems high for a pitcher who basically missed an entire season, the price tag speaks to the high cost of pitching, and the possible upside Montas brings if he is back to his old self.
Montas showed flashes of his quality in posting a 3.13 ERA over 161 innings for Oakland during the 2018-19 seasons, yet the latter season was cut short by an 80-game PED suspension. He also struggled during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign before delivering his first full top-tier season in 2021, with a 3.37 ERA and solidly above-average strikeout and walk rates over 187 innings.
Naturally there’s some risk for the Reds in this deal, as $16MM is a big expenditure for a team with a mid-level payroll and Montas isn’t a sure thing. However, the risk is at least somewhat reduced as just a one-year splurge, plus Montas might have some extra value if he does return to his old form. Should Montas pitch well, the Reds could issue him a qualifying offer next winter, and thus net a compensatory draft pick if Montas signed elsewhere. Or, of course, Montas and the Reds might end up working out a longer-term contract themselves depending on how things play out in 2024.
Cincinnati’s payroll sits just under the $103MM mark after this signing, according to Roster Resource. Considering that the Reds topped the $126MM payroll mark as recently as 2021 before their brief rebuild period, president of baseball operations Nick Krall might have a bit of extra spending capacity in what has already been a busy winter. In addition to Montas and Martinez, the Reds also signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM deal, and reliever Emilio Pagan for two years and $16MM. Cincinnati already emerged from its rebuild with an 82-win season in 2023 and now looks to challenge for the NL Central title, with these veteran signings buoying the club’s exciting core of young talent.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post (links to X) first reported the deal and that Montas would receive somewhere in the range of $15MM-$16MM on the one-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale added that the salary was indeed $16MM. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com relayed the full financial breakdown.
LOL $15 mil?!
I bet after the season that he’s got the best performance on any one year deal signed.
duh, who’ll take that bet?
There was another SP who got started in Oakland, then went to the Yankees before coming to the Reds prior to Montas. Sonny Gray (with a lot of questions about his future) started 31 games for the Reds in 2019. He threw 175.1 IP with a 2.87 ERA and 5.6 WAR. Similar results from Frankie Montas would be fabulous- but very possible.
Did not you see what giolito got?
At least Giolito ate a bunch of innings. This dude pitched in one game last year. Idk about you, but I’m much more interested in having an inning eater for $18M than a guy who just came back from TJ for $15M
My bad, I guess he didn’t have TJ. it was labrum surgery, but my point still stands
Labrum surgery is generally more unpredictable than TJ!
WTF are the Reds doing? Spending like the payroll space is going to disappear Jan 1..
I’m sure they reviewed the medicals, but seriously the guy has pitched in like six games in the last 18 months. The fact that Cashman chose not to match that offer with the state of the NYY rotation tells everyone what they need to know.
Yanks aren’t going after an iffy guy like that. A team like the reds needs to.
I thought the Red Machine had no $???
It hasn’t been a working machine since 1990.
Wire to wire again trust
Maybe it’s a Hot Tub Time Machine
Pete rose bet all the money. I don’t say on winners, though
You’re thinking of CLE – the other Ohio team. Try to imagine the Guardians giving anyone $10M+ for one season. They’re shopping at Dollar Tree without a cart.
They going to pay bieber over 12.3 million for2024 unless he is dealt. Thanks for playing though.
January 10 is the date when we know if bally picks up guardians and rangers 2024 broad casts. Amazon suppose to be involved in bally talks.
It seems salaries are merely keeping up with inflation. $8M is now $15
MLBTR had him projected to get a 1 yr/$15MM contract. He seems to have gotten $16MM – basically in line with projections.
Based on what?
Their projection. lol. Are you upset?
@astick: I asked a question. Why would I be upset?
This has been happening around this comment section a bunch today. Don’t know what’s in the air but people are getting into nothing burger arguments.
Bc it’s this site. Everyone seems to be upset. Sorry.
No they aren’t. Sorry.
Big fan of your haircut department, JCPenny.
basically in line with projections.
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I said the same thing about Giolito. RS casuals were complaining it was a massive overpay, until I to point out that it was less than what MLB-R predicted.
That’s what $15m gets you these days?
Yeah I like Montas as a pitcher a lot, but definitely not at that high price!
Not surprising when Luis severino got 13
Million a year with an era over 6.50. And giolito got 18
If Montas can ever be the pitcher he was before
He came to the Yankees then this can be a bargain actually.
I like the signing in that it did not subtract from the Reds excellent pool of prospects. I would wait to see exactly what we have in most of them before parting ways in a trade. The downside is the track record with injuries. He may not be healthy. The other down side of keeping the prospects is that they may lose trade value later on. I would take that chance. The 15 mlllion doesn’t bother me so much since it is a one year deal. Pitching is way over priced both on the trade market and free agency.. Barring injuries, the Reds should have several top pitchers graduating from the minors (some as soon as next season).. So overall, it is a good gamble if he can return to his prior years production..
gotta love the Reds
So much for the flyer at 8m. This market is crazy
Nice signing! Especially in the context of Giolito’s contract. But, that ballpark…… hopefully full health allows for him to keep the ball down.
I like Montas (when he’s healthy) but this seems like an overpay.
I agree, Pete. None of these guys should be above $10MM, but one-year as opposed to Giolito’s $36MM over two (or whatever it was) is much better for the Reds.
I can’t believe how inflated the pitching market is right now. No wonder Burns said he’s testing FA no matter what. If he has a good year someone (the Dodgers) are going to give him at least $350MM.
I wonder what Snell/Monty are going to get. Sheesh…
It truly is remarkable. I had him pegged for $7.5MM with incentives to double his base. The teams sitting out the market this offseason will be sorely mistaken the next one. Salaries are going up and up.
Montas (and Keynan Middleton) can thank Cashman for giving him an MLB appearance at the end of last season.
Snell and Monty, Clip? We shall find out in May when their holdout is over!
What will Yankees do now YC?
@norcalblue I’d have to think that there is more cooking on the starting rotation front bc it wouldn’t make sense to trade for Soto and then do nothing.
Good point, YBC.
NorcalBlue: I honestly don’t know. My preference is for Monty from the FA side of the market; but knowing Cashman’s strength is building bullpens, I could see him trying to compensate with a super bullpen and someone like Bieber.
I can tell you this: No matter what the Yankees do at this point, I doubt they will come close to the LAD’s performance this year. Yankees are just too far off and LAD is too far ahead of the pack.
Well, you know them, Trumbo, holding out against the man so the working man can put food on the table.
Does this mean pitchers like George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are worth about $50 mill per season and pitchers like Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are worth about $35 mill per year and does this make Robbie Ray’s free agent deal and Luis Castillo’s extension look like Blue Light Specials at K-Mart ???
@isoab Let’s just day that if Trevor Story can return to form for the Red Sox, his contract could turn out to be a good deal for them. Wild to think about.
He would need a hell of a 4 years for it to be a “bargain” or even worth it. Since the first two were so lousy
It’s a 1 year deal. It can’t go that wrong.
Manea is going to get paid, Pete.
I’ve got the starting pitching market situation in line with the pitcher injury situation. Seems to me teams used to be content with 6. Not enough now. You need 7 or 8. Demand is high.
Reds were in on several SP- but lost out, partially because of pitching out of GABP. Now they sign Montas at $1MM over projection (MLBTR) and it’s overpay? Would be overpay if Montas signed with say Padres or another larger ballpark club at this price. But not the Reds. This is their market price.
It’s an overpay because Monty pitched a total of 1 full inning for the Yankees and was injured the rest of the season with a shoulder problem. That’s not usually someone who would be paid more than Luis Severino.
Poor Reds always lose out. Always excuses. Should of would of could of.
Clip it makes one wonder just how much Monty and Snell are going to get. It’s going to be a lot I think.
That’s why even with a hometown discount, the Mariners will be priced out of signing Snell 🙁
We see what the market is for ineffective pitchers with a truckload of question marks and red flags. I’m thinking that players who can actually pitch effectively will land north of $30M/year unless it’s a ridiculously long contract.
@Joe….
You’re absolutely right about that. As a fellow Yankee fan myself, it also makes you wonder how much it’s going to cost to re-sign Cole once he opts out after this season.(and don’t forget he’s a Boras client)
RShore luckily the Yankees can add one more year at 36 million to Cole’s contract that will void his opt out.
Yes. You’d rather not book his age 38 season for $36m but what’s the alternative?
Look at the positive side Clipper. At the very least, this keeps Cashman from signing him.
Haha, very true Rick. He’s expensive, aging, and injury prone….that’s like crack to Cashman
When Montas is in form he has a wicked splitter and works off a lot of strikeouts and weak contact. Perfect signing for the Reds, an inning eater isn’t going to make them competitive in the playoffs, they need some big swings at SP.
He ate innings once, in 2021. He has yet to pitch healthy since.
His changeup should help him in great american. Nasty drop on it
Hes trash
So trash the Astros used to bang on him when they stole signs
Nope he’s not trash at all. He was hurt
The problem is that he’s been injury prone for a few years now
Yeah no doubt, it’s certainly a risk because of his injuries. But he’s obviously not trash. Dude has an incredible arm
You can say that about Bengals quarterback, Joe Burrows too.
I like the Reds, but I always root against PED cheaters.
So do I
Whom specifically do you mean? Aaron Judge?
If Aaron Judge was a known PED user, I’d root against him as well. And while we are it it, why not lump in Mike Trout and Acuna.
Ridiculous post.
Says the guy with the initial ridiculous post.
That I root against PED cheaters? Wow. What a controversial take.
You once again live up to your rep as a weak poster.
He was referring to Montas. He was suspended for 80 games for PED use.
His post was just absurd. Montas signed, a few years ago he was suspended for PED use, and the clown brings up Aaron Judge.
He seems to have a rep as a troll. It appears to be well founded.
I don’t know all the wife beaters, or all the PED users, the the ones I do know, I root against.
Only to crazy people is that a controversial take.
Sure. Anyone who disagrees with or questions what you say is a troll.
No. You can disagree. If you said you did not have an issue rooting for PED users, that would be a disagreement. And since it’s a subjective opinion about how you feel, then it’s how you feel.
Only a crazy person would bring up Aaron Judge as a counter point.
When you have nothing intelligent to say, there’s always the ad hominem attack.
You can just question the sanity of those you know nothing about.
Only a crazy person would bring up Aaron Judge. Maybe it’s time to do some self evaluation.
@Halo11Fan: You are correct. Self evaluation and reflection is an excellent idea for you.
While you’re about it, give some thought to what makes you presume to make personal comments about people you know nothing about based on nothing but an offhand comment or two.
Perhaps you’ve done or accomplished something in your life that makes you feel superior to some professional athletes and to those with whom you interact on the Internet.
Alternatively, you’ve accomplished nothing and your superior attitude is rooted in your imagination.
The rest of us are still wondering why you randomly brought up the idea Aaron Judge is a PED user. It didn’t make much sense.
He’s a clown and just looking for anything to disagree with. I posted yesterday that I hope boras doesn’t hold his clients out til st is almost over and he came at me with some, “well how does that affect you, wah I’m just here to be a **** and argue because my life is empty”
@Oscar Gamble: Sorry your life is so empty. Perhaps you should get out more.
Maybe you need to stop taking online baseball discussions w strangers so seriously? You seem very anxious fella.
@Oscar Gamble: As long as you say dumb things about a guy like Boras, who not only is the best agent in the business and great at what he does but also need not concern himself with your ignorance, I am free and will continue to call it as I see it.
If you don’t like it, go pound sand.
You obviously don’t like it and have no intelligent response, so you resort to name calling.
You’re so predictable, it’s ridiculous.
See my response to Oscar. As long as people make dumb posts, I am free to call ‘em as I see ‘em and will continue to do so.
You are also free to think and say what you like, but don’t expect me to concern myself with your opinion.
If you don’t want me to take seriously what you say, then consider not saying it.
Clown
@Halo11Fan
Just so everyone is clear, eating food and drinking water is a form of PED use. I guess you root against everyone.
Just to be clear, that has nothing to do with cheating. Why did you leave out that word? It’s the more important of the two words.
@Halo11Fan
Because having a proper nutritional diet gives an advantage over others. No one at the MLB level is eating PB&J sandwiches hoping they’ll make their salary last to the end of the week.
Lookup the word cheating. The key word is “unfair advantage”.
@Halo11Fan
If you want to talk about unfair advantage, then I guess the whole game has been about that since they got rid of the batter telling the pitcher where to throw the ball.
The game has always been about unfair advantages. Today, we have SPs go 4 innings and then we bring in a guy who throws 100 mph for 1 inning. Is that an unfair advantage given that the batters are tired from hitting/running and playing defense but some pitcher can come in an throw heat to them? Shouldn’t the announced SP be required to throw the whole game to ensure the advantage is equal as the batters are getting tired as well?
Honestly, anyone crying about unfair advantages has no understanding of the rich history of unfair advantages in baseball. Was it unfair that Ruth was essentially a video game character playing against guys who were not even on his level of skill?
SP going 4 inning is not an unfair advantage anymore than making a Monopoly rule that landing on Go gets you 400 dollars instead of 200.
Lookup the definition of cheating. Just say, hey Siri, whats the definition of cheating.
You’re just spinning.
Maybe I should have included a dishonest unfair advantage. But I thought most people knew that is what cheater meant.
Montas acted dishonestly to gain an unfair advantage. I root against all players which I know committed a dishonest act to gain an unfair advantage. Clandestinely choosing to take PEDs qualifies. .
How that is a controversial take is beyond me.
@Halo11Fan
Spin rates on pitches are up around the peak of sticky-stuff scandal. Will you be rooting against all the pitchers in 2024? Did you root against them in 2023? You can’t be selective if you’re against cheaters and you’ve already shown that you give exceptions when they don’t fit your narrative.
I’ll root against everyone I know of who acts dishonestly to gain an unfair advantage.
Yes, if a pitcher is caught clandestinely and dishonestly putting sticky stuff on his hand to gain an unfair advantage…aka cheating, I will root against him.
Again, what a controversial take.
I’m sorry we live in an era where that is controversial.
@Halo11Fan
So, my question remains, do you plan to root against all the SPs in 2024, as they are all still benefiting from the increased spin rate and MLB is turning a blind-eye to it. Remember, before Bauer revealed the sticky-stuff situation, your favorite pitchers were all benefiting from a form of unfair advantage over the batters.
I plan on rooting against all pitchers that cheated. You know, the ones that were suspended for cheating?
Dishonestly breaking the rules to gain an unfair advantage.
No idea this is so complex for some people.
@Halo11Fan
They were all cheating for decades with sticky-stuff so you can’t be selective in who you are rooting for and against. They all greatly benefited from it. Cole was one of the great beneficiaries of the sticky-stuff and never was suspended. I hope you root against all the pitchers so you keep to your moral values. Personally, it’s up to the player to deal with the consequences of the behavior. If they want to be suspended again and banned for life that’s their choice but I don’t place blanket assumptions about one group of people in history when others also cheated in the past and were not caught or punished for it.
Really? No. Doing things out in the open when everyone is doing it is not cheating.
If the opposing clubhouse attendant is giving Cole stuff for his hands, and no one cares, it’s not cheating.
Why do you keep ignoring the word dishonest
Why that’s tough for people to understand is beyond me. It’s hard to cheat without the awareness you are doing anything wrong.
LOL. Perhaps that’s where his superior attitude comes from.
He obviously thinks he’s better than the rest of us, including some MLB players who possess abilities he can only dream about.
So Blue, it takes superior attitude that can discern that cheating is bad.
God I hope not, because if it takes a superior attitude to be able to differentiate bad behavior, we are doomed.
I hope our moral decay has not dipped that low.
Trust your instinct and get to work on your self evaluation, my friend.
Well. If not rooting for cheaters to succeed is a sign of mental health issues, then so be it.
No idea it was such a controversial take.
@Halo11Fan I’m not a fan of blatant remorseless cheating either…but remember it’s not such a black and white world. From what I understand, the main reason players may take PEDS in this day and age is not to hit the ball harder or or to run faster, but to cut down on the time it takes to heal from an injury. I could understand the pressure a 22 year old kid like Tatis might be under to take something so he can get back on the field more quickly from an embarrassing ATV accident. I could understand the motivation of someone like Robinson Cano who is trying to play up to the expectations of a lucrative contract in his declining years when injury is keeping him off the field and the fanbase is increasing their vitriol aimed at him. The pressure to live up to these huge contracts when you came from very humble origins in a country where people barely scrape by, etc etc. Not excusing their choices but just saying I could understand why these trade-offs get made and it’s not so binary all the time.
@ignorant, it’s a really good post and it is black and white, but there are degrees.
I know of a replacement player who was trying to make the team, he’s competing for a spot against two players he knows are juicing, his choice is to juice or go back to his day job. He juiced. If I told you his name, you’d know him.
I have empathy. I hate the fact he was forced to make that choice.
@Baron – Lol always resorting to “awww ad hominem” to cover your trolling. Predictable. You never say anything remotely insightful or intelligent. You’re truly one of the worst posters here. You and DGTR.
Don’t be an idiot
Good get for CIN. That’s the scale $ of SP arms this off-season. By comparison Severino looks like a good deal for NYM for striking early.
No neither look like a good deal. Both are more likely to just be bad deals.
1 yr no biggie
I would take Montas over Severino for sure.
Yikes
Reds got fleeced
Seems about right for a guy with a 100% win percentage in 2023 and 0.00 ERA.
lol It’s a good time to be a pitcher
I don’t get MLB executives these days. This isn’t a gripe against this move. But we have been asking less of starters for years, even “starting” a reliever to get through the first inning and relegating most of the game to “bulk” pitchers. Then why is the market for starters, which many have tried to basically make extinct, going haywire?
Simple. Supply and demand like any free market.
But that’s my point. I can’t believe it would be an efficient use of resources to spend $25m (or more) a year for 150 innings. What is the market valuing? It’s not innings.
A bit high price tag considering he’s coming off an injured season. I’m surprised the Yankees didn’t sign him though.
I think the yankees may go after James Paxton instead of montas. I thought montas might have been a veteran insurance depth piece to Yamamoto or Montgomery but my guess is paxtan and Montgomery or Paxton and lorenzen
Paxton? That’ll be $12m to be injured all season. Again
Cease trade making more and more sense
The Yankees don’t have a Cease package. They wanted 3 top 100 prospects from the Reds.
The Yankees still have 7 top 100 prospects if you count peraza
I agree Tiger. The Yankees might be able to scrap enough together for Cease but they have depleted their minor league pitching in trades and losses to the rule 5 draft. As thin as they are, they can’t get rid of Warren, Hampton and Beeter.
I think there’s some value to Arias and Jones but Paraza would have to build back up some value.
I think you are both right, but thinking wishfully is fun. It really would be a shame if they got rid of literally every young pitcher with potential
Based on what list? MLB has them at 3 all 74 and lower.
Baseball America, from August now that I’m looking again. Probably not the best source.
Whoa!!!
Reds are in a position on the edge of playoff contention where any added wins are insanely valuable. Great that they’re spending money. Clearly some risk here though even with a 1 year deal
The reds have now spent $51.5 million next year on free agents between montas, candelario, Martinez and pagan. I felt like going into the off season the only thing we needed was 2 top of the rotation pitchers. Montas has been that in the past but not last season so maybe we have one top of the rotation type or maybe not but we still don’t have the 2 we needed even if montas bounces back.
If we are done with free agent signings I feel like the $51 million would have been better spent on sonny gray who signed for $25 million a year and Eduardo Rodríguez who signed for $20 million a year with $6.5 million left over to spend on a right handed bat to platoon with fraley and benson and bullpen. Recency bias says gray and Rodríguez will perform better than montas going forward but let’s hope montas has a come back year. He is still only 30 years old.
They certainly wasted $8 mil AAV on pagan for no reason. I’d prefer Martinez over Gray though considering the contracts. Gray is getting older, can’t go deep in games and doesn’t throw hard. I do not like his outlook for the next 3 years. You could certainly argue Erod over the Montas/Pagan combo but I think Montas has the most upside of the group even if he also has the lowest floor. Plus they can give Montas a QO after the season if he performs well
Yes with Anton coming back and Diaz one of the top 2 closers in the NL last year the only thing the pen needed was another left handed middle reliever which certainly would have cost less than $8 million a year for 2 years. The pen gave out end of last season because they were over worked because starters couldn’t go over 4 innings all year. Pagan probably the biggest waste of the 4.
Candelario is actually a good deal but just not for us. We already had good controlable infielders we needed to trade for good controlable starting pitching and probably should have made that trade in July.
Martinez doesn’t move the needle any either. Doesn’t add anything over Greene, lodolo, Ashcraft or Williamson in the rotation. Montas if healthy could add 4 wins over one of our young ones if a healthy bounce back or he could not add any value if he doesn’t. Split the difference and call it 2 wins. Maybe candelario adds a win playing somewhere over India.
So we have spent $52 million and added 3 wins. 3 more wins would have gotten us into the postseason last year and cubs and brewers have done nothing. In fact brewers lost the best manager in baseball to the cubs and cubs will likely lose their best hitter. Seems though $52 million for 3 wins is more than twice the going rate for WAR.
I kinda like Martinez for his flexibility. He can start if needed but is also solid in 1-2 inning spurts. It’s nice to be able to shuffle someone between the pen and the rotation wherever they’re needed. Maybe the money could’ve been used better but he was pretty cheap and should provide value. Pagan and Candelario I agree. But they could also trade India for pitching which would make the Candelario deal much better
Very good observations and points, ShannonL. I agree with you.
We have improved by about 3 wins on paper and spent $52 million additional next year to do it. Cubs and brewers have not improved any either and 3 additional wins on the 82 we had last season should get us to the postseason. I just didn’t realize we were becoming the Yankees and paying twice the market rate per win. Small market teams need to be more efficient.
Braves just traded for Chris sale. Good friend of mine is a Red Sox fan and wanted rid of sale and his salary. Braves needed a back of the rotation pitcher so they traded an infield prospect that is mlb ready for sale and the Red Sox pay $17 million of sales $27 million salary next year. Braves have no space on the big league club for another infielder. An efficient maneuver by the Braves. They get a former Cy young winner who has been bad last few years for $10 million next year. If he bounces back then the Braves have the best rotation in mlb and if he doesn’t they have a bad 5th starter like most teams do. They gave up an infielder they couldn’t use.
That is why the Braves are perennial contenders whose window never closes and the reds are constantly going between rebuild and contention. We are not efficient.
The Reds were not interested, nor should they have been, in adding two TOR pitchers. They already had 5 legit starters with more quality pitching in the upper minors. These deals create a ton of starting depth:
Montas
Greene
Lodolo
Ashcraft
Abbott
Williamson
Martinez (swing)
Petty
Their #1 pick last yr (whose name escapes me at the moment)
Richardson
Just like the young infielders, these pitchers need innings. The Reds have done a great job creating depth and forcing the journeymen off their roster.
You’ve obviously spent some time on your 3 win improvement projection, but it all seems quite arbitrary. Several of the young players, particularly in the pitching, should take a step forward. Career stats for 25 yr olds mean nothing. For instance, look at Chris Carpenter’s stats in Toronto vs in St. Louis. Pitchers tend to improve over their early time in MLB.
For instance look at Spencer strider now or if you are going back to Chris carpenter look at what kershaw had done by his 50th career starts. Banking on Greene, lodolo and Ashcraft to all of a sudden become top of the rotation pitchers just because of talent and pedigree doesn’t guarantee it happens next year.
I derive the 3 additional wins based on what guys have done in the past. Sure lodolo only has about 25 career starts and can’t really tell yet but with 50 career starts for Greene and Ashcraft s trend toward back of the rotation is developing. Greene can look like a Cy young winner one start and get hit up like someone that couldn’t even win a single a game the next. Until he can prove to be more consistent then I wouldn’t count on him. You can if you want and we counted on him last year and didn’t trade for a stud pitcher at the deadline and missed the post season by 2 games. I don’t want to go thru that would have should have could have again.
As of right now we have improved enough to make the postseason especially if montas can come back healthy and pitch like he did with the A’s but we have added $52 million to the payroll next season to do it. Not very efficient but not my money so I am good with it.
So here are Chris carpenters era for his 3rd thru 6th seasons in Toronto before he became a cardinal. I know era isn’t the only or even best stat to use but it’s easy and comprehensive and runs = wins. This year starts Greene and Lodolos 3rd mlb season
Year 3, 4.38
Year 4. 6.26
Year 5. 4.09
Year 6. 5.26
My question is if you are comping Greene and lodolo to Chris carpenter how does a .4.38 era in 2024 from lodolo and Greene help our chance of winning games? That seems below average to me or 4th and 5th starters if every pitcher in the league is healthy. Maybe your definition of a quality arm is different than mine but I consider a quality are one that can have an era of 4 or less and a whip of 1.25 or less. Maybe my definition is incorrect.
As for this carpenter comparison we have a long term deal now with Greene so maybe we will get a year or 2 of carpenters St. Louis years )which were very good) from Greene 5 or 6 years now but again it doesn’t help us while we still have all these good young hitters. As for lodolo he will not be around 5 or 6 years from now.
We needed better pitching last season at the deadline and didn’t get it. Most on these boards were saying don’t trade our good young hitting prospects for it. Ok now the most abundant free agent market for top of the rotation pitchers in memory & we still need them and folks on this board say ing don’t pay for it.
I watch about every reds game. Used to get a flex season ticket package for several years but stopped before covid during the last rebuild. All the games I watched last year it was apparent to my eyes the only thing we lacked to be good was “quality” starting pitching. We played the Braves the most talented team in baseball in June and went hit for hit with them but our pitching wasn’t even close to theirs. Our bullpen would have been much better down the stretch at they not been overworked all season by starters going 4 or fewer innings most games.
EDLC is as talented on offense as Greene is pitching but the difference but he couldn’t hit a lick last year. Struck out 40% of the time. Like Greene he is young and needs to get at bats to improve his hitting. The difference is our lineup is so deep we can play him and bat him 8th or 9th and not cost us runs or games. With Greene and lodolo we don’t have anyone to pitch in front of them in the rotation so they can have their 4.5 & 5 eras until they become Chris carpenter of the cardinals. Most teams 4th & 5th starters have high 4 eras just like they have a defensive specialist light hitter hid on a lineup.
Maybe Abbott and montas healthy can be the front of the rotation next year while Greene and lodolo transition from blue jays carpenter to cardinals carpenter. We shall see I guess.
I know you didn’t bring it up but the Carpenter comparisons is not a good one at all, especially in regards to Lodolo & Green…. If I remember correctly Carpenter spent almost a decade in & out of the minor leagues developing & accumulating innings…. Green & Lodolo barley spent 2 years in the minors developing, therefore much of there development and potential improvement will have to happen at the major league level…. Yes I think the Reds are banking on the development of their young high ceiling players at the major league level & it’s one of the reasons they invested so heavily in the highly regarded pitching coach Derrek Johnson several years ago….
You say losing the best manager in baseball hurt the Brewers but did not credit the Cubs for getting the best manager in baseball.
Obvious difference being the length and thus overall cost of the contracts mentioned here
It seems the reds may be willing to spend money on 1 or 2 yr, low commitment deals but are unwilling to hitch themselves to long term contracts
Gray was just a 3 year deal no more than candelario. 3 years because of his age I guess but he is coming off a 2nd place Cy young while montas is coming back from an injury.
@shannon gonna try to blend this signing into where we left off.
So last time around reds where willing to spend and ended up w moose and castellanos- they where in on several other players who all publicly declined reds offer like wheeler, the catcher they drafted who signed w white sox, there was another pitcher from white sox who shunned them- he ended up a total bust.
No one else was gonna pay for castellanos that season so he signed a deal w an opt out toward the end of free agency then opted out after first season. Moose was an over pay.
The reason it’s like that imo, is multi factor- small market, history of loosing, (poor facilities is actually what castellanos said when he opted out)and lack of confidence in leadership.
So now reds are ready to spend again, gray chose StL over cincy and I’m sure there’s been several other pitchers they have been interested in they said no thank you. But 3 said yes- so that’s a good start ! And that dream of gray and ERod is a California dream on a coldy wet Midwest day lol.
And notice how montas is a flat one year deal. He wants to bounce back and he prob won’t be considering reds next season.
But what’s encouraging is that they got a few guys ! And as they build reputation and credibility- bigger names may hopefully consider reds in the near future.
I suppose. I was a kid on little league during the 1970’s when Cincinnati was the big red machine and everyone wanted to play for them. Things might have changed. Not everyone can play for a big market team on the coast though. Gray signing for St. Louis is a head scratcher.
We used to get a flex season ticket package for the reds but stopped doing that after the ASG in 2015. Got them because it gave me access to buy post season tickets if they made it and was able to buy ASG and HRD tickets from the reds ticket office in 2015 because I had the package that year. After that told the wife it will be 30 years before the ASG comes back and likely 30 years before they make playoffs again.
After that we started going to away games with the goal of hitting all 30 mlb stadiums a few games a year by the time we retire. We have been to 17 now and obviously I don’t see things like training facilities but from the outside and setting GABP is one of the nicer ones we have been in. We were actually at Busch stadium in 2022 and I think GABP is nicer from a fan POV. In fact the only one nicer we have been to is PNC in Pittsburgh another team that doesn’t sign free agents.
I still think it has something to do with spending money. You are right we have definitely jumped into the free agent market this year and I think with montas have probably done enough to be projected to make the post season next year especially if he can return to form like he was on oakland. Of course we will need a little luck and reasonable health as all teams do.
It almost seems like they need some injuries actually to make this roster work.
So does this signing mean we are done? If so does this sound right starting with the lineup and moving to rotation and bullpen with 13 position players and 13 pitchers:
1. Friedl center field
2. McLain 2b
3. Steer right field
4. Candelario 1st base
5. Fraley/CES platoon DH
6. Benson/India platoon left field
7. Marte 3b
8. EDLC short stop
9. Stephenson catcher
Maile backup catcher and whoever is out of options between Fairchild and Barrero as the utility. Barrero has more position flexibility but the weaker hitter of the two. If Fairchild is out of options then he can only play outfield but India and steer could be moved back to the infield. India only at 2nd but McLain and Marte can both play 2nd, short or 3rd.
1. Montas
2. Abbott (unless Ashcraft can’t be optioned)
3. Greene
4. Lodolo
5. Martinez
Ashcraft and Williamson optioned back to Louisville for depth but if Ashcraft lodolo or Greene can’t be optioned it might have to be Abbott optioned.
Diaz closer
Anton 8th inning right handed
Moll 8th inning left handed
Simms 7th inning right handed
Law 8th inning left handed
Gibout 6th inning guy
Farmer 6th inning guy
Pagan long man
Cruz starts the season in Louisville.
This assumes everyone is healthy to start the season. By my count payroll is slightly under $100 million for the above mentioned and slightly over including Griffey junior.
Supposedly StL is closest to grays home. Reds could have offered more. Reds could have also offer giolito way more and prob did then moved to montas after he signed and I’m sure the had a read on a couple other options but deemed montas the best player most likely to sign.
The problem with the “broke team” narrative is that there’s a ridiculous amount of revenue sharing that never gets reported in the media. And a lot of the teams that qualify for it – don’t spend it. So reds have an abundance of unspent dollars they have accumulated over the decades and they seem motivated to spend it which is exciting !
I’ve never been a fan of team war bc I have never found a way where it’s actually tangible. But I like how u use it as a gauge to compare how much teams have improved- that makes a lot of sense
I think it looks more like this:
India is traded for more minor league depth
Marte starts in louisville and I also think there’s a chance de la Cruz starts in louisville, especially if india is on roster to start season
Friedl cf
McLain ss
Candelario 2b
Steer LF
CES 1b
Fraley rf
De la Cruz 3b
Benson/Stevenson Dh
C – platoon
Traditional Rotation:
Greene
Montas
Ashcraft
Abbott
Williamson
Lodolo to co closer role w Diaz. Phillips starts in louisville (that’s where I’m from btw)
This is what I hope they do and I believe it’ll change the way the whole seasons goes bc reds will be in control over innings pitched and be able to keep everyone from being over worked
Greene
Montas
Lodolo (opener) Martinez
Abbott (opener) ashcraft
Williamson (opener) phillips
Send a lefty out there to get through lineup 1x then come back with a righty who should go another 3-4 innings
I totally understand your logic! But some pitchers would rather pitch somewhere it would help them in their statistics, livelihood and of course paycheck!I am a cardinal fan! I would have preferred them signing Snell and Gray! Instead of getting these “innings eaters”, with Lynn and Gibson.A lot of players prefer not playing in certain place!
Gray is on his last big payday so I don’t see how it would matter to him to give up more home runs in Gabp vs less in Busch stadium. I have an opinion the cardinals offered him $2 or $3 million more per year than the reds did. $25 million a year seemed expensive a month ago when he signed but not so much now for a pitcher of his quality.
What the Reds have done this offseason has both some controversy and risk but I believe it’s best considered as a group. Montas, Martinez, Pagan and Farmer will cost the Reds about $40MM in 2024. How much help they provide to a young rotation and pretty decent bullpen will be interesting to watch. As for position player additions, Maile and Candelario at $18MM is a real bargain. Reds added several experienced veterans, but none past their prime.
Surprising deal for Montas, he hasn’t been healthy for a while now. I thought he was a 6 to 8 million dollar arm. If he returns to form he was with the A;s it wiill be a good deal for the Reds.
I Predicted that perfectly. Reds 1y 15M LETS GO
Agree with slider, before reading the article, I guessed the Reds signed him for 6-7M$ considering his injuries. I guess he has a good agent
Boras
That’s just not a smart signing at that price in my opinion.
Said it before, I’ll say it again, salaries on short term deals are up by 150% to 200%, especially for starting pitchers.
Montas would normally be worth about $8M-$10M on a 1-2 year ‘prove it’ deal, but those deals are now $14M to $18M per season.
It’s just what the current market values are.
Look at guys like Andrew Heaney, worth $12M-$18M for exceptionally mediocre to sub-par pitching results- now you take a guy like Montas who is considered to have way more upside despite basically not pitching for the last two and a half seasons. Etc.
He hasn’t pitched for the last 1.5 seasons, not 2.5. He was healthy and good in the first half of 2022
Same point stands.
Well no, an extra year of injuries is a huge difference. He had one major injury
Dude- you clearly don’t like me. I made a relatively minor error in my description and you’re going after me like I’m Jim Carrey and I said the pen is red.
Going after you?? Ummmmm my comments are incredibly tame lol not sure why you’re taking it personally at all. We’re talking about baseball lol
Actually I’d say he’s just calmly correcting your error.
I’m simply pointing out that 1.5 years of injuries is quite different than 2.5 years, which is good news for the Reds. Not sure what’s personal about that
Look man, I added an extra season to the amount of time he’s been out- you know how many guys miss 2-3 seasons because of injury and are welcomed back with substantial contracts because of their upside? Quite a few.
Years ago the A’s signed Ben Sheets to 1 year/$10M after missing…. 2 seasons… That was nearly 14 years ago. That $10M would be about $12M today in real inflation, and in baseball inflation that might’ve been as much as…. $16M.
My point stands.
And an lol to you too.
Lol you had to back to Ben Sheets to find an example. So yeah…. Big difference like I said. And again no idea why you’re overreacting and taking this personal.
Whatever man, if you need the last word, you can have the last word. I’m not taking this personally, I’m just wondering why you decided to focus on a minor detail discrepancy and make it like I was misrepresenting the situation with Montas.
He’s a middling starter with some upside, who’s been out *almost* two seasons, who got the kind of hyper inflated deal every pitcher is getting nowadays and I was acknowledging that and you tried to correct something that wasn’t really a major detail, so I responded and me responding is somehow me taking it personally.
Anyway- go ahead, have the last word. You clearly need it.
It’s a major detail as I already explained and as you also showed with your Ben Sheets example from the distant past…. You’re not taking this personally? Ummm you’re acting insanely defensive over my incredibly calm comments lol you could’ve just agreed
Trillionaire, are you really that insecure?
Shrug. Enjoy the last word.
Well I mean I was right by saying he only missed 1.5 years so…. Yes?
Yeah this is insane lol
You are in this argument with yourself now – enjoy it!
The god damned pen is blue
Nope I was responding to ghost. You’re all over the place lol
$15m on a 1 year deal for a guy that can have flashes of being an ace isn’t bad at all.
Sure there’s risk coming off injury, but he’s always had a ton of talent with a great sinker.
Yeah I don’t understand all the hate for those signing. If he’s healthy and pitching well he’s at least a number 2. Just a 1 year deal worth a chance. The Reds have depth if it doesn’t work out.
Montas is nothing without his steriods. The Yankees should sue him for being arguably one of the worst players in their franchise history according to the expectations that were set
What an amazingly dumb post. There was no breach of contract.
What an awful trade made by Cashman
Yeah, it wasn’t good at all. Then again, he has made many trades that are awful, there have been some exceptions, but unfortunately not too many. Look, I don’t like the guy, but still.
The hype on him died real fast.
Candelario and Montas – not excited. Still think the young kids make them the team to beat for Cubs and other NL Central teams. I think the Reds are being smart holding onto India.
I’m just glad we aren’t trading away the future for pitchers with almost as much risk
I kinda get the feeling the NLC will be a 4 team race come September, albeit 4 mediocre teams.
Who’s the fourth team lol
Everybody but Pittsburgh.
Idk about the cubbies
Reds had to overpay to get someone to come there.
Everyone is overpaying for pitching, nothing to do with cincy…
And of course big bats as well.
Obviously Reds looked into all things and considered it a sound investment as Reds are usually loath to handing out lots of money. Beats handing over half your farm system to the White Sox for Cease. Now they get to keep all their promising young players and seriously compete for at least the division. Now on a one year contract there should be money to extend some of the said promising players.
Hoping they follow the old Indians/Braves plan and do those kind of extensions instead of another breakup in 4-5 years. I guess we will see.
This one
Agree, if I am Reds, I would like to extend contracts for about four of the young guys.
What young ones should be extended? As of now I think Friedl (not as young), McLain and steer should be extended before they hit arbitration if they continue to hit like they have.
Unfortunately none of our young pitchers have proven to be extension worthy including the one we extended last year. Diaz most extension worthy but I feel like closers can be picked up in free agency later easier than starting pitchers can. By all means keep Diaz until he becomes a free agent especially if he pitches like he did last year just not a fan of giving long term contracts to relief pitchers even closers.
Going into last year I expected more out of the young pitchers than the young position players but I was sure wrong.
TBH – it starts with those who will sign extensions but let’s just say they all will.
De la Cruz has to be #1 bc of ceiling
Marte would be real high on my list due to power projection
And I honestly think they both will sign being international players who didn’t get a lot of money coming into the league.
I’m high on McLain, but arroyo just seems like he’s on the verge of being an absolute stud
Pitching
I think ashcraft has the tools for a long mlb career at a low cost so maybe him.
Then there’s a ton of risk/reward with Phillips but if he can get his control worked out – he’s a TOR candidate so him for sure if it doesn’t break the bank.
Extend ALL of EDLC, McClain, CES, Friedl and Marte. Worst case scenario, they’re THEN cost-controlled trade fodder. Most of these rookie/2nd year extensions are quite affordable (compared to the outrageious contracts for past-prime FAs we’er seeing).
Buyout one or two FA years on each of them and if things go a bit south over the next 3 years, you can trade a couple for BIG trade packages to teams that are salivating for a very talented player, only making $15, $20 or $30 million next three years, etc.
I am not on EDLC bandwagon as much as others are because of his strikeout rate. If you are from Louisville and see the Bats quite a bit you may be more equipped to know who to extend than I am. Without seeing minor league games or even keeping up with minor league players I would like to see how a hitter handles MLB pitching a year or 2 or if a pitcher how they do against professional hitters for a year or 2.
I think it’s best to sign extensions before they hit arbitration years though and if a team waits until a year or 2 away from free agency they probably wouldn’t or shouldn’t give s discount. Seems like sometime after a rookie season if 2nd year no regression mid way thru the season start looking at extensions.
Votto is my favorite red of all time and I grew up in the machine years with rose, Morgan and Perez. It was a big mistake though to let Votto get as close to his free agency as he was to sign him to a long term contact. He was runner up rookie of the year in 2008 I think and really should have won it. It was evident at that point he was a once in a generation hitter. The year before Longoria was AL rookie of the year in 2007 and that off season the rays signed him to a 10 year $15 million s year deal. Reds front office should have called the rays and ask for a copy of the contract changed the names and given it to Votto to sign. Would have had him thru the 2018 season that way and not the decline years. He was the best hitter in the NL from 2009 thru 2017.
Age plays a part as well. Friedl not much more service time than McClain but 4 or 5 years older I think. Not sure how much value can be had by signing a 29 year old to a 7 or 8 year deal.
I do like Friedl though. I mentioned to someone last night on a different thread he had 18 home runs and 18 bunt hits last year. That is a very cool stat.
@ThisOne Our “bum/scrub” just became yours. Congrats, pal!
This is the best we can expect from Po Boy. A guy who had some success and may or may not have some more.
At least he has some experience and is a vet who may pass some knowledge on to the kids. Hopefully he is that kind of guy.
Agreed @redsorbust. Best to spend only money in the offseason. Save any extra prospect capital for the trade deadline.
I’m kind of changing to the don’t trade any young controllable Mariners SP unless it’s for someone who can rake
Boras gets a proof that I’m healthy contract at $16M.
Don’t complain when the ticket prices go up.
Unrelated. Why is Brandon Williamson also omitted when talking about the reds young pitchers (or at least mentioned in the “next” group)? Arguably looked better than any of them at times last year
That is true. His “stuff” is not as good as greene, lodolo and Ashcraft but his results have been much better in his limited career innings.
At least they got a guy with some experience for once but a meh signing for a guy coming off injury, especially at that price.
Seems to be Po Boy’s M.O. though, speculative signings instead of a sure thing.
Unfortunately it probably means they are done at a payroll around 105-110 million, and as usual, a lot of maybes in the starting staff instead of any certainties. Such is what the Bally’s situation is doing to half the league.
This is a good risk. I don’t understand a lot of the Reds moves this offseason but I like this move a lot. And the Reds have definitely spent some money so at least they are trying.
Yes this has moved the needle the most if he is healthy. From my POV and things I have read candelario will push both steer and India to the outfield which likely means India platooning left field with benson. India is an above average hitter maybe just a notch below candelario which really only adds 1 win by doing so.
If montas is healthy he is a big improvement over any of our other starting pitching candidates but if he is healthy where does Martinez go? Pen is full with Anton back along with sims, gibout and farmer as right handers. Seems like Martinez will be in the rotation and if Greene, lodolo and Ashcraft are out of options then Abbott starts the season in Louisville who is better than Martinez, Greene, lodolo and Ashcraft. Even if Greene lodolo and Ashcraft can be optioned Martinez is no better and those 3 young ones need to get innings to see if they can get better.
Will likely work itself out with inevitable injuries but seems like Martinez and pagan were wasted signings to me.
Yeah I don’t really like the Martinez signing at all. Mintas if healthy is really good. Martinez is a number 3 or 4 starter at best the Reds have plenty of those guys already.
At least the team is spending.
Krall seems to have had some surprising luck on his bets so far maybe give him the benefit of the doubt? With good reason, Reds fans have been busting on the team for being cheap the last few years, but maybe give them some props that they are spending money now. They could have easily pocketed the savings and blamed the RSN issue for not having any money to spend at all.
Yeah I don’t get the complaining here. Montas could be really good could be the Reds best starter. The team is trying.
Could be. Trying. Luck.
You all are saying it without realizing it.
ROY votes now count as future success? Or you just played 20 rookies and 4 “got some votes”. None finished in the top 3 right? It gets funnier everyday in these threads. Reds fans have been tortured so long they forget what winning baseball looks like.
The Reds extended a manager less than half a season after losing 100 games. Noone was going to try to hire him to manage their baseball team yet you lock him up long term for no reason other than he makes a good yes man. There is nothing else to say about the Reds front office.
If you wanna be blindly optimistic then thats your choice. They have not produced results to earn that from myself and others.
Trash making millions
Don’t hate the playa hate the game
OK, those this is the vet many have been asking for. I don’t know much about him. Is he a good clubhouse presence? Is he healthy? I like the one year deal. Gives us time to see who develops in our rotation and get an idea about Petty and Lowder. Good times!
My only concern is he adds to a lot of pitchers coming off an injury history. I hope the young guys can learn something off this vet. I am hoping he ends up like Bronson Arroyo was to the last bunch of starters.
Kyle Gibson signing is looking better by the week. Still not at all sure about Lance Lynn but the Cards at least got their business done before the prices started going a little crazy
I think those signings look better now than they did at the time but I would still prefer someone else besides Gibson and Lynn. Montas is risky but if healthy he’s a number 2 starter, something the Cardinals currently don’t have. What Gibson and Lynn provide is a safer bet for innings and that isn’t what the team needed imo.
I woukd rather they had spentbon a monty/imanaga rather than lynn, for sure
Gibson is value though imho – will give them a chance to win if the hitting turns up
Montgomery instead of Lynn and Gibson would have been nice. Liberatore and Thompson competing for the 5th spot would have been fine now neither will start barring injury. And again we don’t have a number 2.
Monty imstead of lynn for me. They have the budget and need Thompson and Libby for depth, which will inevitably be tested.
Would love to see them trade for Trevor Rogers if Miami is reasonable in its ask. Good bounceback potential and gives cover for Matz fragility
There has to be opportunity for young guys and as of now there isn’t. I like Rogers too but there is no room for him. I think Gibson was worth the money just not a good fit. And Lynn I don’t like that signing at all.
The average number of pitchers used by an MLB team last year was over 10, i believe. There is plenty of room for thompson and libertore to pitch 100 innings each as SP 6/7/8, i just dont want to see 100 from Rom and 100 from Who Knows as well.
But we agree on most of this stuff, i imagine
I am a reds fan and although I think they have made some signings that don’t make sense (candelario when they already had 2 younger/cheaper options and Martinez) they have gotten a little better on paper this off season especially if montas can come back healthy.
Not a cardinals fan at all but they have gotten better as well by signing gray. I wish the reds could have gotten him and cheaper overall than Candelario and Martinez they didn’t need. With that said your 2 best offensive players the corner infielders are getting older, mid 30’s and might start to decline a little.
Cubs and brewers only move is trading managers which probably adds 4 wins to the cubs and subtracts 4 from the brewers but the cubs are likely to lose their best offensive player and arguably their best pitcher so they are not likely to improve.
Yeah division is wide open. The Gray signing I really liked but the Lynn and Gibson signings not so much. Getting Montas really helped the Reds and their chances. I think it’s a 4 team race this year maybe 3 if Milwaukee sells before the season starts.
Again a reds fan but from the outside looking in I could see brewers fans seething in frustration. Don’t have anything against the brewers and in a way they are similar to reds in that they don’t have much money to work with which limits decisions and leads to bad decisions. Was it year before last they traded the best closer in mlb at the deadline while they were winning the division? Now they have lost the best manager in baseball to a rival.
I think the Brewers were in serious trouble once Woodruff got hurt. I think they need to trade Burnes and Adames and reload for 2025. Kinda hoping they don’t as a Cardinals fan but that’s what I think they should do.
Brewers do seem to draft and develop well. A one year rebuild is something reds fans are not used to. They could get a good haul for burns and Adames I would think.
I always thought they had the best manager in the division. I have been satisfied with the reds manager as well. As a cardinals fan what are the thoughts of your new manage? Seems they had enough talent to be better than they were last year.
Cardinals are like the Braves in that they have a perpetual window of contention. Rare for either to not be in a playoff race. I wish the reds could get there. IMO the reds trying to immulate the rays will not work. No ther teams have been able to replicate the rays model. To be perpetual contenders the reds are going to have to take advantage of all the good young/cheap talent they have now. Eventually get the payroll up to the $120 to $140 million range by signing some of these guys to tram friendly long term deals that take out some free agent years cheap. Trade others at peak value for more prospects that anre cheap and sign some free agents as needed to fill in the gaps. Draft and develop well.
That IS the Rays way (your last three sentences that is), and I agree with just about all that. I am hoping they try and succeed at buying out an FA year or two on three or more of these young guys. Ideally several of EDLC, McClain, Abbott, CES and Marte. Arroyo maybe in a year or two if he plays well, but to early, unless he’d sign for a bargain one FA year extension.
To an extent it’s the rays way but they rays have never had a payroll of $120 to $140 million. They are the only team that can win consistently by spending no more than they do.
It’s also the Braves way except they spend more. Braves draft well and develop. Know when to hold them with early extensions (acuna) know when to fold them (heyward) and let someone else overpay, know when to walk away (freeman) from a good player and fan favorite of the price is not right and know when to run.
Montas > Gibson and it’s not even close
This year’s Mike Minor, Luke Weaver addition? At double the price!
Hardly.
He’s a bit better than Weaver and Minor. He’s actually gotten Cy Young votes.
Maybe. Maybe not. Minor and weaver were never good. This guy was good before he got hurt. Since we didn’t want to pay for sonny gray or Eduardo Rodríguez this a chance with risk I am ok with.
Alex wood is a better comparison. If montas pitches all season – he will be much better than minor or weaver. Not even close !
No, not close.
Montas has ace upside. The reason he was “only” $16 million and not $25 million was the injury risk.
I would like to think the Reds had their team doctors review his medicals and approve of his current shoulder condition after labrum surgery, rehab and almost a year of healing/strengthening.
If the doctors missed something, then it will be a bad signing, but if they cleared him, its a VERY” good risk. The Reds needed a potential ace or SP2 to give all the young SPs a bit of breathing room to improve on their own timelien. I, like many, am against trading two or three top 100 prospcts for medicore SPs (Cease has career 3.8 ERA, SP3/4 territory)..
This was the most sensible signing possible, one year, limits damage if he doesn’t pitch wel. If he does pitch well, Reds can trade him in July if theyr’e playing awful (hitters regressing) and out of contention, They can also give him a QO and get a good draft pick added after the season.
The only downside is if he doesn’t pitch 80+ innings and that is very possible, but the salary will be off the books next November, so only a brief hiccup to payroll.
And, if he doesn’t pitch well, the Reds still hold a very nice hand of cards with which to deal from in July.
Thats the Reds mentality every year. Next year theres always next year.
Man, $15 million a year used to only be given out to elite/aces (and I’m not talking that long ago) but now teams are just throwing that money to anybody and everybody that throws a baseball. Ridiculous.
This never would have happened if Jed Hoyer was still alive.
I got a good feeling about this
They would have never signed him without seeing a healthy workout, so I like this deal. I still think a Trevor Bauer reunion is the right move for this staff on a prove yourself deal…This staff could be a juggernaut if all are healthy and perform at at least 80% of full potential
I agree, but Nick Krall has said it is not happening. I think the Reds have a strong stance against adding anyone who has negative baggage, whether they did it or not. I think that’s why Aroldis Chapman won’t be back either.
100 Losses by his manager is fine but dont go being accused of a crime whether you did it or not!
Montas had a great season with A’s in 2021. That season’s WAR accounts for more than half his career WAR. If he can come close to that season again, then this will be a great signing. Of course, he has to remain healthy, which seems a challenge for him.
Problem is he hasnt been healthy since then.
I like this signing a lot. Whoever signed Montas was going to get a bargain. Typical bounce back candidate
If you were a smart GM it would have been your top target
I hope he is a great addition for the Reds. I just thought this offseason would be the offseason when the Reds could sign a proven starting pitcher with no risk history. Once again the organization has to cross its fingers and carry a rabbit’s foot in its pocket while walking on eggshells.
I’m not sure any tor pitcher wanted to come play for a team on the edge of contention. And I don’t like the asking price of good trade candidates so this is probably the best route. Plus we still have some depth if he doesn’t work out..
Pitchers like money. Alot. Thats what talks, not promising wins.
Do you really think e rod had a choice between the reds and the snakes and chose them over money…
Or lego bricks or nails or broken glass.
Excluding farmer who I didn’t even realize was not under team control until yesterday, the reds have spent $52 million on free agent additions for next year. Pagan, candelario, Martinez and now montas. We have gotten marginally better by doing so which we barely missed the postseason last year and should be good enough now to make it in 2024 with a little luck and health like all teams need.
On the other hand we could have spent $45 million on 2 pitchers, sonny gray $25 million and Eduardo Rodríguez $20 million and had 2 top pitchers and a larger margin of error with luck and health next year.
Except e rod didn’t wanna come here and I doubt gray did..
So I have asked this of others. What does the city of St. Louis (where gray ended up) offer that Cincinnati doesn’t? Similar in size & both midwestern river cities.
Other than warmer weather what does Phoenix (Rodríguez) offer that Cincinnati doesn’t? The weather shouldn’t even really matter because summer is hot either place and half the time on the road in the summer. Winter most have homes in Florida or Arizona anyway.
I understand players like ohtani wanting to play in big market coastal areas but why would gray and Rodríguez prefer St. Louis and Phoenix over Cincinnati? I am not really a Cincinnati person. Grew up in eastern ky and now live about 90 miles south of Cincinnati. Is there something about the city I am not aware bunking of?
I think those organizations have more will to get something done than this front office does and it is not about the city at all.
Cards offer more consistency, more owner committment and better facilities.
Thats not to say the Reds can’t get to all that, but word gets around the league on teams that cheap out behind-the-scenes. Medical equipment, training equipment, locker room, pre-game meals/food, flights, hotels, spring training facilities, etc.
My guess is, Reds are putting out fewer o lesser quality choices in some areas we don’t see and using older/cheaper equipment.
Heck, maybe Cards have good day care facility and Reds offer none and that can be a difference, one NEVER knows. But knowing Castellini, the Reds are cheaping out in several areas important to players that we cannot see.
I’m sure it also didn’t escape notice that the front office didn’t get the team help last season when they needed it during a playoff run. Things like that don’t escape a player’s notice whether outside or inside the team.
Ok this kind of confirms what I was thinking. It’s a reputation about the organization. Still a player could afford a good daycare or even a nanny if they make 10% more. We basically need to pay a little more than other teams because we cheap out in certain areas.
I remember not so long ago when I never thought I’d see the day where the other team in town (the Bengals) would be thought of as expected to be a playoff team every year, but here we are in 2023. Let’s hope the Reds get to that point as well.
Sonny had his best years in Cincinnati, he absolutely would’ve came here again. He signed here once already. The Reds are cheap and were outbid to noones surprise.
Actually he was traded to the reds and yeah he got back on track but that doesn’t mean he isn’t interested in winning…
Love this, rather than paying more than double for the huge question mark of Giolito. Love Montas betting on himself for just one year, when he could have easily roped us for an option year
His AAV on a three year deal would have been comparable with this one year deal methinks…
Agreed. Prefer this over multi-year Giolito or trade overpay for SP3- Cease. It’s risky, but so are Giolito and Cease.
More than double? Where is your math coming from? Question mark versus a guy who was last healthy in 2021?
As much as I wanted him on the Yanks when he was traded for, glad we didn’t get a reunion. I know the shoulder derailed him, but sheesh that felt like a mess all around. Much luck in Cincy tho, Frankie!
Frankie says relax
I see those t-shirts making a comeback in Cincy in 2024, right next to RUN DLC (which I thought was brilliant).
Are the Yankees the Angels of the AL East? An MVP and a CY pitcher and they miss the playoffs.
They make the playoffs if the Orioles and Rays weren’t so good.
Angels make the playoffs if the Rangers and Astros weren’t winning world Championships.. ALEast teams get swept in the playoffs.
2023, yes, but next year? Who knows buddy.
Last year too. LOL Buddy
Yankees were swept by the Astros last year but not in the first round of the playoffs. If you expect an AL East team to make the World Serirs every year, good luck with that.
No offense, but you are sounding more and more like a troll that wishes ill-will on other fans.
Just laughing at people who think the AL East is the best division. No championships in a while. They keep getting swept. They even lose to central teams. LOL
I never said they were the best, but it certainly is the most competitive. And we’ve seen time and time again with the Dodgers that the best team doesn’t always win.
If you actually get satisfaction by laughing at people, then what are you doing here? You’re not here to debate, you’re just trolling without reason and making others inferior to you.
Which team was “the best”? The Orioles? The Yankees? The best team does win the World Series… That’s why they play it. The Dodgers might be the best in their division and over 162 games, but the season has another part to it. It’s been that way for over 100 years. Maybe Manfred will just illuminate the playoffs all together and just crown the team with the best record as winner? Maybe they should play on neutral sites… Hate for anyone to complain about home field advantage… To cut down on injuries to pitchers, maybe just use pitching machines? Manfred should make these changes
Yes, hope he does not take offense.
The Orioles are a very good team! But…rookies tend to crumble in October.
the reds were seriously fun to watch last season. hope he stays healthy and helps them stay in the playoff mix
Not really sure how this guy is in the show still..Especially at more than league minimum…What a crazy world we live in.
For a one year deal, this isn’t bad.
If true,sports salaries have gotten past disgusting
In complete agreement. If you notice, the 5 million of 10 years ago is more like 15 million today.
It’s easy to see this- just look at the biggest contracts today in comparison.
Meanwhile, millions of Americans are fighting to get enough food on the table.
But apparently none of them are struggling to pay for cable.
That, my friend, comes down to preference on what people spend on.
I firmly admit that I need baseball more than I need food.
That’s funny
Nick Martinez is slated to be the opening day man in Cincy for 2024. As a Padres Fan I can say ya’ll got a gritty winner in Martinez. Nice pickup.
I’d be willing to bet my life that Nick Martinez is not the opening day starter. It will be Hunter Greene or Andrew Abbott. I think they’d even give it to Graham Ashcraft over Martinez. I don’t even know if Martinez is in the rotation to start.
Based on his expensive contract he will most certainly be in the rotation even if not opening day guy. Hes not getting paid that kind of scratch on a small market team to be a mop up guy bud…….
I wouldnt bet my life on any decision thats in David Bell’s hands.
Not the opening day starter and with Montas may not break ST in the rotation at all given our depth (depending on injuries).
That said, I liked the deal originally and like it even more now. HE is just the kind of swing guy the Reds desperately needed in 2023. A few quick SP IL stints and NM can step in and start two or three times. Then back to being the long inning BP guy that can come in for 2, 3 or 4 innings when a starter has a bad day, or after a good 6 inning start, but bullpen is spent.
NM would have gotten another $10 million or so had he waited to sign until January. So Krall was wise to sign him early and quickly.
Just can’t see paying $16 million or more to a pitcher who has never won more than 13 games in a season. His next highest win total is 9. However the Reds want to spend their money. .
Lol
Wait til Montgomery signs
@Joeydonuts. Monty finally cracked double digits this year. If he’d missed by one it would have been funny to see the Neanderthals’ reaction after $150m to a guy who never won 10.
Still, his ERA was lucky in his walk year. What would he have been paid after an ERA+ of 112 or 113, as in 2021-22… 5/110m?
He pitched for awful Oakland, so you can ignore win totals. Even Kershaw wouldn’t have won 15 games EVER in Oakland.
Interesting move. I thought Wacha would be a great fit there just for dependability.
Wacha’s lucky ERA in 2022-23 and HR luck on fly balls in ’23 hides a merely pretty good pitcher who misses 1/3 of the season. The Reds can’t afford pitchers who’ll be overpaid.
Wacha has some injury risk himself and far less upside. I wouldn’t have been upset if he signed, but like the upside/risk/$$$ ratio for Montas better.
By the end of 2024 season, some of these “great” signings will look awful and some of the head-scratchers will look like genius moves…as it is every year.
Hoping Montas is the move others are glowing about come November or even July if Reds stink and they trade a healthy Montas for a couple of top 5 prospects from a contender (adding even moer cheap, cost-controlled talent to the great collection of young players).
I hope we’re contending though and Montas is pitching like a steal-of-an-ace.
I thought the Braves might trade Grissom for a pitcher. But Chris Sale? He’s wshed plus he’s a total a**hole. Bad move by the Braves. They should’ve gotten more for Grissom.
It gets him closer to home so that may do wonders for his attitude. If he’s healthy the Braves get a really good pitcher. Grissom is a player without a position in Atlanta and every team knew that so there was no really selling “high” on him anyway
Meh, Braves got big money back so only paying Sale like 8 million AND they only gave up Grissom, who is solid/good prospect, but unproven and only modest upside.
I like the move for both teams actually. Sale may not do much of anything (a few starts and then more injuries), BUT if he does manage to get and stay mostly healthy (some of his injury issues aren’t long term things, just bad luck), the Braves just got an SP2 at worst and possible a game 1 start come October. Wise move, low risk.
Red Sox moved on and got an upside flier on a good, not great MI prospect. He could start and improve their 2B output immediately, even if he does’t become an all-star with his modest upside.
Cashman, where were you on this??? A one year prove it deal would have been worth it with so many holes in the rotation and losing tons of depth.
No go get Clevinger before he’s gone too!
Definitely a high risk/ high reward signing given the recent injury and extremely home run friendly nature of GABP. Fringe ace production along with draft pick compensation off the Qualifying Offer could be huge for the Reds.
If nothing else he’s a better bounceback candidate than Severino, given how horrid the latter looked last season.
yep, with Montas Reds can (IF, IF he stays mostly healthy):
1 – have him pitch game 1 or game 2 of a playoff series.
2 – trade him in July if pitching well and Reds sadly out of contention, getting one or two top 100 or 150 prospects back
3 – give him a Q.O. next off-season, and either extend him (unlikely) or get an additional draft pick in 2025.
4 – He’s hurt or not hurt and just pitches like an SP4/5 with a ERA north of 4.00 and Reds simply move on next October with nothing owed. Would suck, but thats the worst outcome.
Yes!
Market is straight busted man.
This guy is nothing without steroids
And of course when he’s not pitching in Oakland
That Marine layer is undefeated.
Or there’s so much pressure in New York quality pitchers just fall apart. Gray, montas, Rodon ect….
It’s official, the Yankees trade was a major train wreck
The yanks gave up a good starter in JP Sears and got garbage back
Mark my words, JP will be a very good pitcher that the yanks could have used.
Don’t know how the Yanks manage to make so many bad moves year after year
Cashman really should just stop making trades with the A’s. Seems Billy found a work around the whole “if we try play like the Yankees in here we will lose to the Yankees out there” situation
Yeah but what have they ever gotten of value back?
Remember Dexter Fowler? Good times.
Really like this move for Cincinnati. Screw the Reds.
As a Reds fan, we rarely get these posts past 10-20 years, so this made me feel a little less deflated (over the past few years) and little more excited. Thanks!
I like your usename too. Pirates and Reds…geez. AT LEAST there is some light in the 2024 tunnel for the Reds now. Pirates, well, maybe in 2025 or 2026 if Skenes is the ace they think they got, maybe they’ll actually have a non-embarassing payroll then too.
Nutting makes Castellini look like Warren Buffett. LOL
Should have moved De La The Fraud for Cease and saved the 15 million.
Says a WS fan. EDLC is just 20 years-old and oozing with upside. NO WAY you trade him now unless another team gives you three great young players back.
If EDLC were 26 and AAAA player, sure, bust, but he’s only 21. Like 90% of prospects before him,he has to cut down on swings n misses. If he cuts down on that a few percent each of the next three years, he’ll be one of the top 5 best players in baseball.
I’d try to extend him and buyout an FA year or two, rather than trade him for a mediocr SP3- SP4+, overpaid pitcher like Cease. Good lord. Cease has career ERA near 4.00 and you want to trade a stud young player with Acuna upside for THAT?
WS fan, only way your post makes sense. You want to steal EDLC for pennies on the dollar. If I were a WS fan, I’d LOVE that trade and would even kick in our top prospect with Cease to get it done.
Not even close to a White Sox fan,
I think this is a good gamble by the Reds.
200 posts on a reds article ? Best loosen the gate on the bandwagon
Dont you mean strike it up?
Not sure about this move, is medical check passed already? Major health concern here, let’s see…
Not just that. Montas has been as mediocre as he has been good when healthy and got popped for cheating. He is a No 2 when on but…warning signals poppin off like mad…
If the Mets weren’t kicking Montas’s tires, it probably means the rotation is done.
Senga
Quintana
Severino
Houser
Megill
Lucchesi
Payroll sitting just under $300 million. Was it fun playing GM the last 3 years, Steve?
Theyre startin to push this no bad one year deal idea.
By the time the twins wake up there will be no pitchers left to sign!
Every article there is always several people saying “Lol thEy SiGned Him fOr $X amount of dollars?!?!”. Yes, pay attention, look at all the other signings this off-season, pay tends to go up all the time (naturally) but this year we are really seeing some of the numbers get up there in price.
Bring back Chapman to bolster the pen!
Green, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott, Williamson, Phillips, Montas and Martinez with Lowder and Petty in the wings… none of these guys pitched a full load last year. I could see a 6 man rotation if David Bell had any clue how to manage his bullpen.
Problem is most of them had a lot of 4 or 5 inning starts last season.
How about pairing Martinez with one of the young starters to use on a regular schedule, with Martinez pitching the second half of the game. Basically a scheduled day off for the other guys in the bullpen.
Damn, 15M for 40 IPs of work. I wish I was good at baseball.
I think that contract is for the 2024 season. The Yankees paid for the 40IP already.
(sarcasm of course)
You’re paying for a assumedly healthy (at this point almost a year after surgery) SP with big upside and sizeable injury risk. It’s the perfect risk/reward for the Reds, just one year deal, So no matter how it goes, there were be no lingering effects. Some of these 3 year deals for SPs are going to be looking awful by July with some “we got two more years to pay this clown” comments.
So this guy left New York without proving anything, what a joke.
Montas puts himself or Martinez in pen.That has a lot of upside for a heavy- laden relief corp and young rotation already.
Great way to look at it.
It also likely allows ONE of these promsing young SPs to hone their craft in AAA with much less pressure.
If the get good health, Montas, Martinez or one of those younger pitchers will make GREAT trade fodder come July IF the Reds have a big need and contending or if they’re sadly not contending, they can go get a top 25 prospect (in all of MLB) for one of these guys if pitching really well.
Wow 15 million? That can’t be right
Martinez and Montas set a floor for SP in the 2024 Reds rotation.No need to cconcern yourself with any of the Big 5 regressing. Or Connor Phillips either , for that matter. I look at the Reds FA signings as a group- including Maile, Pagan, Martinez, Candelario, Farmer, & Montas. Combined a value package.
BINGO!
Pressure is greatly reduced on some of these young arms, which means they’ll likely pitch BETTER. Too much pressure too soon can and has ruined many a career.
Also innings can be limited as needed. Skip starts here or there.
Wow! Did not see 16mil for a season for him. Crazy
If healthy he is worth 16m. I didn’t see the medicals. It’s a nice chunk so medical team better be right.
AMEN. I assume he was cleared, but hey, its the Reds, Castellini may told Krall to ask Montas agent if he was good to go…lol.
“Sure, ready to get the Cy Young. He can’t lift his arm, but that was to be expected. Just sign here please, next to my finger.”
Some serious overpay this offseason. Wow.
That’s what it takes for small market teams to make a splash
Big market teams are overpaying too (see Dodgers). At least Dodgers will make hundreds of millions marketing Ohtain and that SP. Smart for baseball and business. That said, it seems likely this will not turn out well for Dodgers just because that is what happens when teams try to buy titles…typically. Instant bad karma. I am hopefuly Dodgers fail to win a title next 5 years and actually miss the playoffs one of those seasons.
$16 million is reasonable given a 1 year deal (damamge limited) and SP1/SP2 upside. Much rather had that than 2 years and $30 million or 3 years and $42 million.
Yankees can’t sign anyone. Even injured guys.
I wonder if/when they’ll EVER have a good rotation again. Pharmacy boys Pettite and Clemens are in the distant rear-view mirror.
Maybe Cole can start every 3 days? When is his last year on contract? If I were Yanks, I’d run him out there every other day that year. LOL
Although Montas’ $16MM contract makes him the highest paid Reds player in 2024, ahead of Candelario ($15MM), Martinez ($13MM),and Pagan ($8MM)- all are well below the current QO. Reds may have more additional payroll space than roster space. Krall still might initiate an India and/or Fraley trade for young controllable pitching- if they have options. Good place to be
I am blown away by the cost of pitching this offseason. Yikes.
But, I like this move for the Reds. They have the potential to emerge as a scary team in 2024-25.
It’s definitely a seller’s market for starting pitching, about every single team is looking to reinforce their rotation. It’d be just an isolated event or it’d be due to multiple interfacing factors, i.e., new MLB rules, less SP prospects as compared to other positions, aging staffs, etc. In any case, I seriously doubt that Montas could had been demanded more than $10MM/year a season ago.
I like that the reds are at least making an effort. Not coughing up the farm for pitching either.
Could we not sign Aroldis? Wouldnt that help bullpen and Diaz?
Yeah, the backend of that bullpen shaky until they get to Diaz. Don’t want to see any two inning save attempts like those that burned him out at season’s end.
Montas’ deal with Cincy makes Cashman look like a chump. He thought was getting some kind of “hometown” discount to sign the broken-down pitcher who cost him four good prospects (three pitchers) at the ’22 trade deadline and produced virtually nothing.
Of course, I think the Reds are loony guaranteeing $16 mm to a pitcher who had shoulder surgery after washing out in the Bronx.
I’m amazed at the amount teams are paying for high ERA pitching. Hell for league minimum I’ll throw batting practice too lol! That’s what most of these pitchers do every time they pitch!
Great trade by Cashman
1 – Greene
2 – Ashcraft
3 – Montas
4 – Abbott
5 – Lodolo
Not a horrible starting pitching lineup to start the year.
Some depth behind them for insurance too.
He was quite good not that long ago and his stuff was still intact in 2022. Its obviously a huge gamble but the upside is he returns to form. Even if he only gives 100 innings of league average ball its not a huge overpay. Given that he’s had a shoulder surgery the range of outcomes is really wide so im surprised it’s not a lower AAV with playing time/award placement escalators but then again if he is really good thats all they pay him. At most maybe a slight overpay if even that? Theres worse ways to add starting pitching.
I’m happy Francelis has the opportunity to pitch for a better contract.
Free agency has been really good to mediocre starting pitchers this year.