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Chris Young Discusses Rangers’ Spending Outlook

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The Rangers have made plenty of headlines in each of the past two offseasons. After signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray during the 2021-22 winter, they added Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney a year ago.

It doesn’t appear Texas is planning to be so aggressive this time around. A few weeks removed from the franchise’s first World Series, general manager Chris Young hinted at a quieter offseason than the previous two.

“We expect to be active in free agency, but probably not spending at the level that we have spent in previous offseasons,” Young told reporters on Thursday afternoon (relayed by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). The GM noted there’s “a great returning core group” and said the front office is “really looking for additions to kind of shore up the team.”

That’s a generally fair assessment of the roster. Texas is returning the vast majority of an elite batting order. Seager, Semien, Adolis García, Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe, Leody Taveras and Evan Carter will be back. Designated hitter/backup catcher Mitch Garver hit free agency after the Rangers opted against issuing a qualifying offer. He’s the biggest potential departure on the offensive side. Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski also hit the market after solid performances as depth outfielders.

Texas faces a few more impactful losses on the pitching side. Deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery is one of the top free agent starters. Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith and Chris Stratton could depart the relief corps, while Martín Pérez played a swing role.

Garver and Montgomery are the most notable losses. Texas doesn’t has a perfect in-house replacement at designated hitter, although the likes of Ezequiel Durán and prospect Justin Foscue could take on larger roles. Wyatt Langford, selected out of Florida with the fourth overall pick last summer, briefly reached Triple-A at the end of his draft year. It’d be a surprise if he’s in the majors on Opening Day. He could hit his way to the big leagues at some point during the summer.

Of course, the headline-grabbing play at designated hitter would be a massive strike for Shohei Ohtani. Texas is reportedly in the mix for the defending AL MVP. Signing Ohtani would quite likely require the largest contract in MLB history. Young’s comments downplay that as a possibility, although perhaps ownership and the front office would pivot if there’s a realistic chance to land the sport’s best player.

Texas has also expressed interest in retaining Montgomery. That’d be a bit of a luxury strike. Effective as the southpaw was down the stretch, the Rangers could open next season with Max Scherzer, Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning as a strong rotation. deGrom could join the group in the second half as he rehabs from June’s Tommy John procedure.

Young made clear the Rangers aren’t planning to sit out free agency entirely. Yet adding a depth starter rather than meeting a nine-figure price for Montgomery could be more likely. Texas figures to bring in multiple relievers and will probably add to what presently projects as an inexperienced bench.

While the strength of the existing roster is one factor in projecting a relatively quiet offseason, it also seems the front office is working with more limited spending room than they’ve had in previous winters. Roster Resource projects the Rangers’ 2024 payroll around $203MM. That includes projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players but does not account for any additions they’ll make. That’s already above the approximate $196MM payroll which the team carried into this past season, which was itself a franchise high.

To be clear, Young didn’t forecast any kind of payroll cut. It seems all but assured they’ll go into 2024 at a franchise-record spending level. The championship run brought in extra revenue in the form of playoff gate receipts. Ownership and the front office are surely motivated to push for a repeat. The midseason acquisition of Scherzer (whom Texas will pay $12.5MM next season as part of the trade from the Mets) paired with arbitration raises for the likes of Lowe, García and Dunning organically raise the payroll in comparison to this year’s Opening Day mark.

The Rangers are also one of the teams facing short-term uncertainty about their local television rights. The organization’s deal with Diamond Sports Group for in-market broadcasting on the Bally Sports network is in jeopardy. The Athletic recently reported that Diamond was considering dropping its deals with the Rangers and Guardians before next season amidst its ongoing bankruptcy. Young pointed to the uncertainty about the rights fees, noting that the front office has “a responsibility to be financially prudent.”

That all hints at a less flashy offseason than Texas has had in the last two years. Grant suggests the team could try to stay below the luxury tax threshold during the offseason. While there’s not a clear mandate to avoid paying the tax, it seems ownership prefers to leave some flexibility for midseason acquisitions. A team’s CBT number isn’t finalized until the end of the year, so in-season pickups count against that figure.

Roster Resource pegs the Rangers’ 2024 tax projection (which is calculated using contracts’ average annual salaries and includes player benefits) around $219MM. That checks in $18MM below next year’s $237MM base threshold. If the organization truly prefers to stay under that during the winter, they’d be limited to complementary additions. Back-end starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have signed for $11MM and $13MM, respectively, for reference.

The Rangers exceeded the tax threshold in 2023. If they surpass it next season, they’d be taxed at a heightened 30% rate as repeat payors on any spending between $237MM and $257MM (with heightened penalties if they surpass the $257MM mark).

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks

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At the GM Meetings earlier this month, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters the team was seeking a late-game reliever. They’re considering plugging that vacancy in free agency.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the O’s have been in contact with each of Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. All four hurlers fit the general profile of a late-inning arm, although they’re clearly in different tiers of free agency.

Hader is the best reliever in the class (and arguably the top bullpen arm in the majors). He worked to a 1.28 ERA over 56 1/3 innings during his platform season. The lanky southpaw punched out 36.8% of batters faced. That’s actually Hader’s lowest strikeout percentage since his rookie year, yet it still ranked fifth in MLB among relievers with 50+ innings. Only Chris Martin and Brusdar Graterol had a lower earned run average.

After frequently working multiple innings earlier in his career, Hader has expressed a preference for a traditional one-inning role over the past couple years. The Padres deployed him as a closer. He picked up 33 saves in 38 attempts.

The year marked an emphatic bounce back from a 2022 season in which he’d posted an uncharacteristic 5.22 ERA. Hader has posted an ERA under 1.30 in two of the last three years and has five sub-3.00 showings over his seven MLB seasons. While he’s a year older than Edwin Díaz was last offseason, Hader figures to take aim at topping Diaz’s $102MM guarantee with the Mets — the largest relief contract in MLB history.

Committing a nine-figure deal would be far bolder than any free agent decision that the Elias front office has made. The O’s have remarkably yet to sign a single multi-year free agent deal in his five years as GM. Much of that came during a rebuild, of course, but the O’s remained cautious even as they’d begun to turn a corner last winter. Baltimore signed a trio of veterans (Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and Mychal Givens) for a combined $23MM on one-year guarantees.

After a breakout season that saw the O’s win 101 games to take the top seed in the American League, the front office should be more aggressive than ever. Bringing in Hader would represent a very significant shift in operating procedure. In addition to the huge financial commitment, Baltimore would have to relinquish their third-highest pick in next summer’s draft. Hader declined a qualifying offer from the Padres, so he’s attached to signing compensation.

If the O’s are willing to meet those costs, Hader is a sensible target. He’s one of the few relievers who can approach the kind of production the O’s lost when Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the entire 2024 season. Hader is also a Maryland native who began his professional career as a 19th-round pick by the Orioles in 2012. While that selection was made by a previous front office, Elias was a high-ranking scouting official with the Astros when Houston acquired Hader as a prospect at the 2013 deadline.

Hader is in his own tier as a free agent relief target. Hicks finds himself in the next group, arguably the #2 option on the open market. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averages around 100 MPH on his sinker. Hicks has wobbly control but consistently runs huge ground-ball numbers. He’s coming off arguably the best season of his career, turning in 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays. The righty struck out a solid 28.4% of batters faced, the highest rate of his career.

Injuries (most notably a June ’19 Tommy John procedure) dogged Hicks between 2019-21. He has mostly stayed healthy over the past two seasons, topping 60 frames in each. He’s also the youngest free agent reliever of note, having turned 27 in September. Hicks should secure at least three years and has a solid case for a four-year pact at an average annual value in the $8-10MM range.

Chapman and Kimbrel would be shorter-term plays. Two of the best closers of their generation, they’re each entering their age-36 campaign. Both pitchers have battled some inconsistency in recent seasons, but they’re coming off solid 2023 performances. Chapman worked to a 3.09 ERA with an eye-popping 41.4% strikeout percentage over 58 1/3 frames between the Royals and Rangers. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA while fanning a little over a third of his opponents in 69 regular season innings with Philadelphia, although he struggled over six innings in the playoffs.

Pirates Release Thomas Hatch To Pursue Overseas Opportunity

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The Pirates have released right-hander Thomas Hatch, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. A Korean-language report from IS Plus suggested Hatch had received interest from teams in both NPB and the KBO and is likely to sign with the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan. Hatch had occupied a spot on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster. His release will drop that tally to 36.

Pittsburgh snagged Hatch off waivers from the Blue Jays in early August. The 29-year-old occupied a depth role down the stretch, logging 22 2/3 innings over 12 appearances. He posted a 4.03 ERA despite a modest 17% strikeout rate. Paired with six MLB appearances for the Jays earlier in the season, Hatch tossed 28 2/3 innings of 4.26 ERA ball — his largest big league workload to date.

Originally a third-round pick of the Cubs in 2016, Hatch landed with the Jays at the ’19 deadline in a trade that sent veteran reliever David Phelps to Chicago. The Oklahoma State product debuted in the majors the following year and saw some big league action in each of the past four seasons. He has allowed 4.96 earned runs per nine in 69 career innings.

Hatch would have been out of minor league option years going into 2024. He’d likely have had a tenuous hold on a bullpen spot in Pittsburgh and could well have found himself on outright waivers at some point over the offseason. Instead, he should lock in a guaranteed salary — quite likely one north of the $740K MLB minimum — and could position himself for other major league opportunities in future offseasons. Hatch throws in the mid 90s and owns a reasonable 4.49 ERA over parts of three Triple-A campaigns, making him an attractive target for evaluators in Japan and Korea.

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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6,135 people submitted entries in MLBTR’s annual free agent prediction contest!  The contest leaderboard is now available.  Tom Diesman is currently in the lead with an impressive five correct picks for the seven top 50 free agents who have signed so far.  Tom’s lofty .714 contest batting average surely won’t last, but he’s off to a blazing start having nailed the destinations of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo Lopez, and Nick Martinez.  Last year, Steve Sacks won the contest with a .295 average (13 of 44).

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list was originally published on November 6th.  You can check that out here.

 

NPB’s Hanshin Tigers Sign Javy Guerra, Re-Sign Sheldon Neuse

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The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week that they’ve signed right-hander Javy Guerra for the 2024 season (Japanese language link via Yahoo Japan). Hanshin has also re-signed infielder Sheldon Neuse and right-hander Jeremy Beasley, per the team’s web site. It’ll be the second season with the Tigers for both former big leaguers and Guerra’s first overseas.

Guerra, 28, once ranked as one of the top prospects in all of baseball while rising through the Red Sox and Padres systems as a shortstop. After struggling at the plate as he climbed the minor league ladder, however, he moved to the mound and has now appeared in each of the past five big league seasons, splitting time between the Padres, Rays and Brewers. Guerra is one of the game’s hardest throwers, averaging 98 mph on his heater and at times climbing into triple digits, but he’s battled significant command issues that have hampered his results.

In 63 MLB innings, Guerra has walked 14.3% of his opponents. He hasn’t balanced that out with the type of gaudy strikeout rate one might imagine either, setting down just 15% of his opponents on strikes. The poor command of his power repertoire has contributed to an ugly 6.43 ERA in the big leagues, but Guerra sports a career 2.87 ERA, 28% strikeout rate and far more palatable 9.6% walk rate in 78 1/3 Triple-A innings across two seasons. He’ll look to match that form more closely with the Tigers. And, at 28 years of age, if Guerra can harness his power arsenal in NPB and improve his command, he’s young enough to parlay this stint into a big league return down the road.

As for Neuse, he’ll be a familiar name for fans of the A’s, Dodgers and perhaps the Nationals (who selected him in the second round of the 2016 draft and traded him to Oakland alongside Jesus Luzardo for both Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle). The now-28-year-old infielder hit .212/.262/.296 in parts of three seasons between Oakland and Los Angeles (420 plate appearances) and turned in a .240/.295/.328 batting line with Hanshin last season.

As for Beasley, the 28-year-old pitched 24 2/3 innings of 5.84 ERA ball between the D-backs and Blue Jays from 2020-22. He tossed 41 innings for the Tigers’ top-level club in 2023 (plus 44 innings with their minor league squad) and handled himself quite nicely, logging a 2.20 ERA with a 25.3% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in that time.

Mets Continuing To Explore Rotation Market

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The Mets are soon to add Luis Severino to their rotation, as they’re in the process of finalizing a $13MM contract with the longtime Yankee. That’s one of what’ll surely be multiple additions to the starting staff, as New York entered the offseason with only Kodai Senga and José Quintana locked into rotation spots.

There’s no secret about their interest in NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the three-time winner of the Sawamura Award (Japan’s Cy Young equivalent). Upwards of a dozen teams are in the mix for the 25-year-old righty, who seems likely to command the largest contract of any pure pitcher in this year’s class. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that some rival clubs consider the Mets the favorite on Yamamoto, but there’ll be no shortage of competition.

Unsurprisingly, the front office has its eye on multiple options on the open market. Michael Marino of Fantrax tweeted this week that the club was showing interest in left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Andy Martino of SNY echoes that sentiment, calling Montgomery “a more likely target” than fellow free agent southpaws Blake Snell and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Montgomery has been a popular name. He is also known to have drawn attention from the Red Sox, Yankees and incumbent Rangers. It stands to reason there are numerous additional suitors for the soon to be 31-year-old, who is coming off a 3.20 ERA across 188 2/3 innings. That’s a career-best mark, but he has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine while reaching 30+ starts in each of the past three seasons.

In addition to their Yamamoto pursuit, the Mets apparently also have some level of interest in Shota Imanaga. Martino adds that they’ll “explore” the market on the left-hander, the second-best pitcher coming over from Japan this offseason. Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars this week, opening a 45-day window for him to sign with a major league team.

While Imanaga isn’t the same caliber of pitcher as Yamamoto, he has a chance to beat the five-year, $75MM pact which the Mets gave Senga last offseason. Imanaga turned 30 in September, so he’s one of the younger free agent arms available (albeit nowhere near as young as Yamamoto). He’s coming off a 2.80 ERA showing over 148 innings in NPB. Imanaga struck out 174 hitters, fanning a little over 29% of batters faced. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke projected him as a potential mid-rotation arm. Brandon Tew of Spots Info Solutions took a look at Imanaga’s repertoire yesterday, praising his command and the carry he generates on his low-90s four-seam fastball.

Each of Montgomery and Imanaga could land five or more years. A pact of that length would align with the Mets’ general competitive timeline. Team officials have made clear they won’t punt on the upcoming season but are targeting 2025 and beyond as a more realistic contention window.

To that end, Martino suggests they’re unlikely to be actively involved in trade discussions for a star player whose contract expires at the end of next season. He reports that the Mets are not in discussions with the Rays on Tyler Glasnow at present. (While Martino doesn’t specifically mention Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber, it’d be similarly logical for the team to mostly sit out those discussions as well.) They’re seemingly reluctant to relinquish significant future value for a rental on the heels of a fourth-place finish in a competitive NL East.

Giants Re-Sign Thomas Szapucki To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have re-signed left-hander Thomas Szapucki to a minor league deal, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The club had just non-tendered him a couple of weeks ago. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Sacramento for the time being.

Szapucki, now 27, didn’t pitch in any official capacity in 2023. He experienced some elbow discomfort in the spring which eventually led to surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome in May. He stayed on the 60-day injured list all year until he was non-tendered a couple of weeks back. That sent him into free agency without him being exposed to waivers, which allowed the Giants to re-sign him.

Prior to the lost season, Szapucki had appeared in 12 major league games between the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He was with the Mets until coming to the Giants as part of the Darin Ruf trade. He has an 8.68 earned run average in that time, though that’s obviously a very small sample. In Triple-A in 2022, he tossed 72 1/3 innings with a 3.11 ERA and 33.7% strikeout rate.

His health will be a factor going forward, as the track record for pitchers who have dealt with TOS is mixed. Merrill Kelly bounced back without seeming to miss a beat, whereas pitchers like Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey and Joe Ross weren’t so lucky. Back in July, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post looked at that disparity and highlighted that there are two different types of TOS. Kelly had venous TOS whereas Strasburg had neurogenic TOS.

The Giants will be hoping that Szapucki can get back to health and back in form. He showed big strikeout stuff in the minors in 2022, which is surely part of the reason why they acquired him from the Mets, for whom he was a top 5-20 prospect on his way up to the big leagues. If the southpaw can earn his way back onto the roster, he still has an option season and just over a year of service time.

Mets Sign Joey Wendle To Major League Deal

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November 30: Wendle passed his physical and the deal is now official, per Andy Martino of SNY. Wendle can also earn an extra $500K in bonuses, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post, with $100K for getting to 250, 300, 350, 400 and 450 plate appearances.

November 29: A few hours after agreeing to terms with Luis Severino, the Mets have added infield depth. New York is reportedly in agreement with Joey Wendle on a one-year, $2MM guarantee. The deal also contains performance bonuses for the Excel Sports Management client.

Wendle, 34 next April, has spent the last two years in the NL East as a member of the Marlins. His tenure with the Fish didn’t go as planned. Miami acquired the left-handed hitter from the Rays over the 2021-22 offseason. He’d had a solid four-year run in Tampa Bay, hitting .274/.330/.414 and earning an All-Star nod in his final season. Miami installed him as their primary third baseman for the ’22 season.

His offensive numbers took a sharp downward turn. Wendle hit .259/.297/.360 with only three home runs through 371 trips to the plate. Miami brought in Jean Segura to play third base last offseason but kept Wendle in the Opening Day lineup, kicking him up the defensive spectrum. After trading Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers, the Marlins turned to Wendle as their primary shortstop.

Wendle had an even tougher year. He hit .212/.248/.306 over 318 plate appearances. He connected on only two homers while his strikeout rate jumped from 13.5% to a nearly average 21.1% clip. Of the 293 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, none had a lower on-base percentage than Wendle. His slugging mark was ninth-lowest among that group. The Fish stuck by Wendle as their primary shortstop, although he struggled significantly down the stretch. He hit .142/.176/.201 in the season’s second half.

To his credit, Wendle handled his more demanding defensive responsibilities. He logged a career-high 754 1/3 innings at shortstop, no small feat for a player in his age-33 season. Defensive Runs Saved rated him highly, estimating he was six runs above average at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric was more bearish, grading him three runs below par.

Barring injury, Francisco Lindor will take almost every shortstop inning next season. Wendle can handle a utility role off the bench. Public defensive metrics have always graded Wendle highly at second base and pegged him as a solid defender at the hot corner. As a defense-first lefty hitter with the ability to handle multiple infield spots, he’s more or less a direct replacement for Luis Guillorme. The Mets non-tendered the latter two weeks ago.

A $2MM guarantee brings the Mets’ payroll projection around $276MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. Their competitive balance tax number jumps a little north of $289MM. New York is within the third tier of luxury penalization, roughly $8MM below the $297MM mark that represents the fourth and final tier. Given remaining needs on the pitching staff and in the corner outfield, they seem likely to surpass that threshold by the time the offseason concludes.

Since they’re presently in the third tier and have paid the luxury tax in each of the past two seasons, the Mets are charged a 95% rate on their expenditures. Adding Wendle comes with $1.9MM in taxes, bringing the total cost to $3.9MM. If/when they pass the $297MM figure, they’d be taxed at a staggering 110% rate on each additional dollar spent.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported the Mets were in discussions with Wendle. Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report an agreement had been reached. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the approximate $2MM base salary and the presence of unspecified performance bonuses. Joel Sherman of the New York Post pegged the guarantee at exactly $2MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Sign Kyle Tyler To Minor League Deal

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The Marlins have signed right-hander Kyle Tyler to a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The righty, who is represented by Nello Gamberdino, will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Tyler, 27 in December, spent 2023 with the Mariners on a minor league deal. He made 27 Double-A appearances on the year, including 26 starts, tossing 135 innings with a 5.60 earned run average. He struck out 22.3% of batters faced, walked 9.4% and kept 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. He didn’t get much help from a .351 batting average on balls in play or 63.6% strand rate, which is why his 4.47 FIP was more than a run better than his ERA.

Prior to this year, he had made seven major league appearances, five with the Angels in 2021 and two with the Padres last year. He had a 2.20 ERA in a tiny sample of 16 1/3 innings. Over that same two-year stretch, he tossed 111 1/3 innings in the minors with a 4.12 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate.

By signing Tyler, the Marlins add a bit of non-roster depth for their pitching staff. Their once-vaunted pitching surplus has been thinned a bit in recent years, after they traded away Pablo López and Jake Eder while Sandy Alcantara is going to miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. It was reported earlier today that the club is still getting interest in their young starters, so Tyler gives them a fallback if they make a move or another injury creates a need. Tyler still has a couple of options and less than a year of service time, giving him the potential to be a long-term depth piece with roster flexibility if he manages to get onto the club’s 40-man.

Mets Sign Austin Adams To Major League Deal

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The Mets have signed right-hander Austin Adams to a one-year, major league deal, per a report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Per Will Sammon of The Athletic, it’s a non-guaranteed split contract, meaning Adams will earn different salaries if he’s in the majors or in the minors.

Adams, 33 in May, started the 2023 season with the Diamondbacks on a minor league deal. He had his contract selected in May and made 24 appearances for the club with an earned run average of 5.71. He likely deserved better than that, as he struck out 27.2% of batter faced while walking 9.9%. His .333 batting average on balls in play and 61.6% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of league average, leading to a 3.72 FIP and 3.72 SIERA.

After those 24 appearances, Adams suffered a fractured right ankle and landed on the 60-day injured list in August. The Diamondbacks outrighted him off the roster in November and Adams elected free agency, which allowed him to sign this deal with the Mets.

Over his big league career, which dates back to 2017, Adams has generally racked up strikeouts but also had serious control problems. He has punched out 33.1% of opponents faced while walking 14.6% of them. In 2021, his control problems reached absurd levels when he hit 24 batters with pitches in just 52 2/3 innings pitched. His 9.9% walk rate in 2023 was actually his career best, even though it was higher than the 9.5% league average for relievers on the year.

Adams is just shy of five years of service time, meaning the Mets can utilize him as part of their bullpen in 2024 and, if they so choose, retain him via arbitration for 2025. After the disappointment of 2023, the club has mostly kept themselves to small additions so far this winter, giving one-year deals to Luis Severino, Joey Wendle and now Adams.

The Mets traded away Dominic Leone and David Robertson from their bullpen during the 2023 season, then Adam Ottavino opted out of his deal. Adams can jump into the relief mix and improve the depth.

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