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2023 Non-Tender Candidates

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The offseason will get underway no later than this weekend. While the first few days will be defined by option decisions and qualifying offers, the focus turns to arbitration-eligible players shortly thereafter.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for that group. Those figures are not locked in, with teams free to decline to tender contracts to anyone on their 40-man roster who isn’t already on a guaranteed deal. A non-tender sends a player directly to free agency without exposing them to waivers. This offseason’s non-tender deadline is Friday, November 17.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary by that date. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money within the next couple weeks. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below the projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing, which typically runs from mid-February into the beginning of March.

With the non-tender deadline a couple weeks away, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.

At least a few of these players will likely be traded within the first couple weeks of the offseason, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela and Kevin Newman were all traded in deals of this ilk last fall.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

Designated Hitter

Starting Pitchers

Right-Handed Relievers

Left-Handed Relievers

* Kelly’s projected arbitration salary exceeds the option price

Guardians Part Ways With Three Coaches

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Third base coach Mike Sarbaugh, bullpen coach Rigo Beltran, and replay coordinator Mike Barnett won’t be returning to the Guardians’ staff next season, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  These are the first known changes to be made to the composition of Cleveland’s staff now that Terry Francona will no longer be managing the team.

Sarbaugh has been a member of the Guardians’ coaching staff since 2013, mostly as the third base coach but also stepping into the bench coach role in 2020 when Sandy Alomar Jr. stepped in as interim manager while Francona was on medical leave.  However, Sarbaugh’s ties in the organization date back to 1990, as he played five seasons in the team’s minor league system before beginning a long stretch of coaching and managing at various affiliates within Cleveland’s farm system.

Barnett is also a longtime member of the staff, having worked as the replay coordinator since the 2015-16 offseason.  Barnett may be better known for his multiple stints as a hitting coach with the Blue Jays (2002-05), Royals (2006-8), and Astros (2011-12), and his 40-year career in baseball has also taken him to jobs with the Yankees, Diamondbacks, White Sox, and the University of Tennessee.

Beltran’s run on the big league coaching staff will end after just a single season, though he has been in Cleveland’s organization since 2014.  Prior to the bullpen coaching job, Beltran was the pitching coach for Triple-A Columbus for the previous four years.

Astros Interested In Craig Counsell

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With Craig Counsell already garnering interesting from the Mets and Guardians, it only makes sense that another team with a managerial vacancy would also look into the soon-to-be free agent skipper.  According to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Astros “have expressed interest” in Counsell, “but it’s unclear how serious their pursuit would be.”

It could be that Houston is just doing its due diligence in checking in on Counsell, given his impressive track record over nine seasons with the Brewers.  The Astros naturally expect to contend again in 2024, so hiring a manager like Counsell who has proven he can consistently get teams into the postseason would seem like a logical way to fill the big shoes left behind by the retiring Dusty Baker.

Since it has been barely over a week since the Astros were eliminated from the ALCS and Baker announced his retirement, the club’s managerial search has yet to really kick into full gear.  Bench coach Joe Espada and former Tigers/Angels manager Brad Ausmus are seen as two of the top potential candidates, but word has yet to filter out about what other names Houston could be considering for the job.

As for Counsell, his contract with the Brewers officially ends today, so the manager will be fully available as of Wednesday to be hired by another team.  This doesn’t mean that a decision is necessarily coming quickly, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) notes that there isn’t any known timeline Counsell might have in choosing his next job.  The potential inclusion of the Astros adds another wrinkle to a list of suitors that is already three teams deep.

The Brewers already granted the Mets and Guardians permission to interview Counsell, while Hogg hears from a source that the Brewers themselves “have begun the process of requesting interviews with potential managerial replacements.”  This is another natural due-diligence move since obviously the Crew don’t want to start a managerial search from scratch if Counsell does leave, though it does represent some “uncertainty” within Milwaukee’s front office over what Counsell’s decision will be.

By this point, it appears as though Counsell will certainly become the highest-paid manager in the sport, as it’s hard to imagine his next deal wouldn’t top the $4.5MM average annual salary Terry Francona received as the Guards’ former manager.  The Mets and owner Steve Cohen could certainly throw their financial weight around if it means bringing Counsell into the fold, but Hogg argues that the Brewers have no reason to not offer Counsell a big raise, as he was already making a $3.5MM salary.  As Hogg further notes, a manager’s salary is comparatively small in relation to the salaries that even a smaller-market team like the Brewers give to average players.

Marlins Outright Three To Triple-A

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The Marlins outrighted outfielder Jonathan Davis, left-hander Enmanuel De Jesus, and right-hander Jeff Lindgren off their 40-man roster, according to the team’s official transactions page.  Davis and Lindgren can opt for free agency instead of the assignment to Triple-A because they’ve each been previously outrighted during their careers, while De Jesus is likely to wind up in minor league free agency.

Davis first had to be activated from the 60-day injured list before being outrighted, as he has been out of action since undergoing right meniscus surgery back in July.  Davis suffered the injury diving for a ball in center field, and it ended up costing him the remainder of his 2023 season.  The meniscus procedure had a recovery timeline of 3-6 months, so while Davis’ normal offseason routine will be delayed, he can hopefully be ready for Spring Training — whether in the Marlins’ camp, or with another club.

Miami acquired Davis in a trade with the Tigers last May, as the Fish were looking to shore up their center field depth with Jazz Chisholm Jr. recovering from turf toe.  Davis ended up playing in 34 games and making 104 plate appearances (the most of any of his six MLB seasons) before getting hurt.  After being part of five different organizations since August 2021, Davis may now find himself on the move once more, almost surely on another minor league deal.

Davis has a .198/.295/.276 slash line over 205 games and 464 PA at the big league level, appearing in each of the last six seasons.  Despite the lack of offense, Davis is a well-regarded baserunner who can play all three outfield positions, making him a useful depth option at either Triple-A or on a Major League bench.  The outright assignment is essentially an early non-tender for the Marlins, as Davis was eligible for salary arbitration for the first time this winter and projected to earn $800K for 2024.

De Jesus made his MLB debut this season, tossing 6 1/3 innings over two appearances and allowing eight earned runs.  That 11.57 ERA notwithstanding, De Jesus could finally call himself a big leaguer after a long minor league career that began in the Red Sox system in 2014.  De Jesus pitched with Boston until he spent the 2022 season with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate, and he then caught on with the Marlins on a minors contract.

Working as both a starter and reliever over his career, De Jesus has a 4.01 ERA over 749 1/3 innings in the minors as a whole, and a 4.61 ERA in 191 1/3 frames at Triple-A.  The 26-year-old’s control has become an increasing issue over the last couple of years, hampering his success in the upper minors.

Lindgren was a 24th-round pick for the Marlins in the 2019 draft, and he also reached the majors for the first time in 2023, appearing in three games and delivering a 5.14 ERA over seven innings pitched.  The number of appearances didn’t quite outpace the number of outrights, as this is now the fourth time Miami has removed Lindgren from their 40-man roster in 2023.  As such, he could’ve opted into free agency on multiple occasions this season, but since he chose to remain with the Marlins on those previous occasions, he might well choose to stay once more.

Padres Considering Phil Nevin, Benji Gil As Managerial Candidates

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Former Angels manager Phil Nevin and Angels infield coordinator Benji Gil are on the Padres’ radar for interviews as the club continues its managerial search, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli (both links to X).  Nevin might interview this week while Gil “is in preliminary discussions” about a potential interview.

Nevin has plenty of Padres ties, as he lives just outside San Diego and played seven (1999-2005) of his 12 Major League seasons in a Padres uniform.  Since retiring from playing, Nevin has had a lengthy career as a coach and manager in the majors and minors, culminating in his first MLB managerial gig with the Angels over the last two seasons.  Taking over as Los Angeles’ interim skipper when Joe Maddon was fired in June 2022, Nevin was properly made the manager following the season, though given only a one-year contract.  Nevin posted an 119-149 overall record as the Angels’ manager, and he wasn’t given a new deal following the 2023 campaign as the Halos chose to instead look for a new dugout boss.

Gil has never managed at the Major League level, and has been on the Angels’ coaching staff for only the last two seasons.  Still, the 51-year-old Gil has the past experience of an eight-year playing career in the bigs, as well as some managerial experience outside of the affiliated minors.  Gil has worked as a manager in Mexican baseball, most notably helming Mexico’s national teams during the 2020 Summer Olympics and during the 2023 World Baseball Classic.  The Angels reportedly had interest in Gil as a possible candidate for their own managerial vacancy, though it isn’t yet known if the former infielder has sat down for a former interview with the Angels’ upper management.

In a sense, the two candidates represent the four (non-interim managers) who have run the Padres’ dugout during A.J. Preller’s tenure as the club’s president of baseball operations.  Nevin is a veteran baseball man with past managerial experience, like Bud Black (who Preller inherited Bud Black as his first skipper) and Bob Melvin (who managed the Padres over the last two seasons).  In between those hires, Preller went with Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, both first-time managers with relatively little coaching experience on a Major League staff.

This same dynamic exists between the other two known candidates for the San Diego job.  Bench coach Ryan Flaherty has never managed at the MLB level but has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, while senior associate Mike Shildt was the Cardinals’ skipper from 2018-21.  Flaherty and Shildt are considered the favorites to be the next Padres’ manager, though Preller said that the team would be exploring external candidates out of more than due diligence.  “We’re going to make sure we exhaust all the different possibilities to get the right choice….We want to try to get it right,” Preller said.

Ghiroli also notes that Eric Chavez is “no longer expected to be in the mix” after garnering some level of interest from the Padres in their search.  Chavez has long been seen as a possible future manager, and he has worked on the Mets’ staff for the last two seasons, including a bench coach role in 2023.  Since the Mets are themselves looking for a new manager to replace Buck Showalter, Chavez’s future in New York could well be in flux, though it appears he won’t be part of the Padres’ search.

Rangers Remove Adolis Garcia, Max Scherzer From World Series Roster

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6:11PM: The Rangers have officially replaced Garcia and Scherzer on the World Series roster with Duran and left-hander Brock Burke, the league announced.  Burke had a 4.37 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, and 3.8% walk rate over 59 2/3 innings for Texas this season, initially working as a multi-inning reliever before settling into a more standard one-inning bullpen role.  The southpaw has made only one appearance during the Rangers’ playoff run, tossing one-third of an inning in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Orioles.

5:12PM: Adolis Garcia and Max Scherzer each left yesterday’s Game 3 with injuries, as Garcia was removed with an apparent side injury after a big swing in the eighth inning and Scherzer lasted only three innings on the mound due to back tightness.  Providing updates on both players today, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told media that the club had yet to make a formal decision about whether or not either Garcia or Scherzer would be replaced on the World Series roster, but that decision might come prior to the start of tonight’s Game 4.

“It’s not great news” about Garcia, as Bochy bluntly put it, as the outfielder has suffered “a moderate strain of the oblique.”  Garcia took some swings to test his readiness and is undergoing treatment from team trainers, but he has already been ruled out of the starting lineup, as Travis Jankowski will instead get the nod tonight in Garcia’s customary right field spot.  As for Scherzer, the veteran right-hander’s back is still “pretty locked up,” putting his readiness for another appearance later in the Series into serious doubt.

Since a player cannot return to action in the World Series once he is removed from the roster, it is understandable why Texas is being as cautious as possible before making a final call on Garcia and Scherzer.  That said, it is hard to imagine either getting healthy enough to play within the short window of time remaining in the postseason.  The Rangers simply can’t afford to play essentially two men down, and even though Scherzer probably wouldn’t have pitched again until a possible Game 7 if healthy, the Rangers would still be fielding a shorthanded roster in the event that Scherzer was given an extra day or two for more observation.  Getting a fresh arm in Scherzer’s place would also help the bullpen sooner rather than later.

Ezequiel Duran has already been tabbed as the replacement should Garcia indeed be removed from the roster, yet obviously there’s no way to truly replace his huge contributions to the Texas lineup.  Garcia has been perhaps the biggest star of the Rangers’ playoff run, as he has hit .323/.382/.726 with eight home runs over 68 plate appearances this postseason.  Garcia’s 15 RBI during the ALCS set a new record for most RBI in a postseason series, and Garcia was rightly named ALCS MVP for his heroics in the Rangers’ seven-game triumph over the Astros.

Nationals Hire Gerardo Parra, Ricky Gutierrez As Coaches

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With a number of vacancies to fill on their coaching staff, the Nationals will fill two of those spots with Gerardo Parra as the new first base coach and Ricky Gutierrez as the new third base coach, Andrew Golden of the Washington Post reports (via X).  Parra and Gutierrez will respectively take over from Eric Young Jr. and Gary DiSarcina, as the Nats parted ways with both base coaches following the season.

This is the first coaching job for the 36-year-old Parra, who has spent the better part of the last two seasons as a special assistant to Nationals GM Mike Rizzo.  2021 was the final season of Parra’s 12-year Major League career, and he sandwiched two seasons with the Nats around a stint in Japan with the Yomiuri Giants in 2020.

Parra enjoyed a number of highlights during his lengthy career, including two Gold Gloves when playing for the Diamondbacks from 2009-14.  However, Parra’s most famous broadly famous moments came with Washington in 2019, as his use of “Baby Shark” as his walkup song made him a viral sensation.  Parra’s arrival with the Nationals after a May 2019 trade with the Giants was also considered a chief turning point in the Nats’ season, as Parra’s clubhouse leadership and contributions as an outfield regular helped get a then-struggling Washington team on track.  The result was the Nationals’ first World Series championship, cementing Parra’s position as a fan favorite in the District for life.

The 53-year-old Gutierrez also has 12 seasons of Major League playing time on his resume, suiting up for six different teams from 1993-2004.  Post-playing career, Gutierrez worked with the Reds’ player development department for five years and was the manager of their Double-A affiliate in 2021.

Gutierrez moved on from that job to join the Nationals prior to the 2022 season, first working as a Latin American scout and in a special assistant’s role, and he was part of the MLB team’s coaching staff in 2023 as a run prevention coordinator.  That somewhat unique title meant that Gutierrez was focusing on improving the Nats’ defense, and Gutierrez (himself a former shortstop) in particular worked with CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia in the middle infield.

Mets Claim Penn Murfee From Mariners

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The Mariners announced several roster moves this afternoon, chief among them the departure of right-hander Penn Murfee, who was claimed off waivers by the Mets.  In addition, the Mariners assigned three players outright to Triple-A: catcher Luis Torrens along with right-handers Easton McGee and Adam Oller.

Murfee underwent UCL surgery back in June and is expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign.  Prior to his injury, Murfee had a 1.29 ERA over 14 innings for Seattle in 2023, following up on a 2022 rookie season that saw the righty post a 2.99 ERA in 69 1/3 frames of work.  For his career, Murfee has an impressive 27.6% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate, though that latter number rose significantly from a 6.6BB% in 2022 to an ungainly 17.2% total this past season.

Between the UCL injury and Murfee’s spike in walks, the Mariners had some legitimate reasons for seeing the reliever as expendable, and Murfee is also turning 30 in May.  On the other hand, Murfee had some very strong numbers since becoming a full-time reliever in the minors in 2021, and he hasn’t yet reached his arbitration years.  Should Murfee return in good health, the Mets might’ve landed themselves some quality relief help for some portion of the 2024 season and beyond, as Murfee is controlled through the 2028 season.

Torrens has the right to reject the outright assignment and elect free agency, since he has previously been outrighted in his career.  Oller and McGee, meanwhile, lack the requisite service time to reject their assignments but still figure to be eligible for minor league free agency in November.

Now perhaps nearing the end of his second stint with the Mariners, Torrens was signed to a minor league deal back in August.  Seattle didn’t tender Torrens a contract last winter, and he subsequently signed a minors contract with the Cubs before eventually moving to the Orioles and Nationals in other transactions over the course of a journeyman season for the 27-year-old catcher.  Brought back as some catching depth after Tom Murphy was injured, Torrens appeared in five MLB games with the M’s, to go along with the 13 Major League appearances he made with the Cubs during the 2023 campaign.

Never known for his defense, Torrens’ market will be limited since some teams go glovework-first when considering backup catcher options.  Torres did hit 15 homers as recently as 2021 when it looked like he might be carving out a place for himself in Seattle’s catching mix, but he has a .227/.289/.354 slash line over his 807 career plate appearances in the majors.

Torrens will surely catch on somewhere on a new minor league deal since teams are always in need of catching depth, yet he might need some spark at the plate to keep himself from another carousel of roster transactions.  This winter marked Torrens’ second trip through the arbitration process, and since he was projected to earn $1.3MM in 2024, it made for a pretty easy decision for the Mariners to part ways.

Like Murfee, McGee is in the midst of a lengthy rehab, as he underwent Tommy John surgery back in May.  That will keep the right-hander out until at least halfway through the 2024 season, with the timeline perhaps a little fluid depending on both health and whether or not McGee is built back up for a starters’ workload.  McGee has worked mostly as a starter throughout his pro career, though the Mariners (or a new team) could bring him back as a reliever next year as a way of getting him back into the field, and then fully stretching him back out in Spring Training 2025.

McGee (who turns 26 in December) was a Rays fourth-round selection in the 2016 draft, and his big league experience to date has consisted of exactly two games — three innings in an outing with Tampa in 2022, and a 6 2/3-inning start with Seattle in 2023.  His minor league resume consists of 485 1/3 innings and a 4.30 ERA, including a 4.78 ERA over 141 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level.  McGee isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, relying on good control and grounders to get results.

All of Oller’s MLB experience came with the Athletics (94 innings in 28 games) in 2022-23, though he has been part of five different organizations in his career.  Oller was a Rule 5 Draft selection for the Mets off the Giants’ roster in 2019, and Oller was part of the trade package New York sent to the A’s for Chris Bassitt prior to the 2022 season.  Seattle claimed Oller off waivers from the A’s in July but he never made any appearances for the M’s at the big league level.

Oller has a 7.09 ERA over his 94 innings for Oakland, and a 4.50 ERA in 526 1/3 career innings in the minors.  It seemed as though Oller had turned a corner in 2021 with an impressive years in the Mets’ farm system, but things soured in 2023 as Oller struggles both the big leagues, and at the Triple-A level with the Athletics’ and Mariners’ top affiliates.

Brewers Outright Caleb Boushley

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The Brewers have assigned right-hander Caleb Boushley outright to Triple-A, per MLB.com’s transactions log. There had been no prior indication that Boushley had been placed on waivers. Boushley does not have the requisite service time to reject the assignment but figures to be eligible for minor league free agency in November unless added back to Milwaukee’s 40-man roster.

Boushley, who celebrated his 30th birthday earlier this month, was selected by San Diego in the 33rd round of the 2017 draft. He spent five seasons in the Padres’ minor league system, with a 4.25 ERA in 332 2/3 innings of work across five levels of the minor leagues. He was selected by the Brewers in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft in December of 2021, and pitched well as a starter at the Triple-A level during the 2022 season with a 3.25 ERA in 127 1/3 innings of work, albeit with a strikeout rate of just 17.5%.

Boushley saw his strikeout rate tick up to 18.9% across 135 2/3 innings of work with Milwaukee’s Triple-A affiliate this year, though unfortunately the increase in strikeouts was combined with significantly worse results on the mound. Across 29 appearances (26 starts), Boushley posted a 5.11 ERA, nearly two runs higher than his 2022 figure. That didn’t stop the Brewers from giving Boushley his first taste of big league action in 2023, however. The minor league journeyman made his MLB debut after six seasons in the minors in late September to decent results. In 2 1/3 innings of work, Boushley struck out five while walking two and allowing a home run, good for a 3.86 ERA.

Now, Boushley is poised to enter free agency for the first time in his career. As difficult as his 2023 campaign was, it’s certainly feasible that he could receive interest from clubs with a dearth of rotation arms as a possible minor league depth option, given his strong 2022 campaign. As for the Brewers, the club’s rotation depth is headlined by left-hander Robert Gasser, the club’s #5 prospect per MLB Pipeline. Gasser pitched well in 2023, with a 3.79 ERA in 135 1/3 Triple-A innings of work in his first full season with the Brewers since the club acquired him in the Josh Hader trade last summer.

Cardinals Plan To Add “At Least Two” Relief Arms This Offseason

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It’s long been understood that the top priority for the Cardinals this offseason is adding to their starting rotation, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak himself stating that the club intends to at three starting pitchers this winter. Even as the club’s focus seems to be on bolstering the rotation, however, The Athletic’s Katie Woo indicated today that the club plans to make additions to its relief corps as well, noting that the club plans to add “at least two high-leverage arms” who can join Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos in the club’s late-inning mix.

The news isn’t necessarily surprising. Cardinals relievers posted an uninspiring 4.47 ERA across their 579 2/3 innings covered in 2023, the third-worst figure in the NL above only the Nationals and Rockies. Only the Rangers’ relief corps had a higher ERA than the Cardinals this year when looking at teams that finished the season with a winning record, and just four (Texas, Cincinnati, Miami, and Arizona) even finished in the bottom half of the league. Given St. Louis has clearly indicated a desire to return to contention as soon as next season, shoring up the club’s bullpen mix figures to be a key component of that goal.

The Cardinals have already been connected to one upcoming relief free agent: NPB left-hander Yuki Matsui, who is expected to explore signing in the majors this offseason. While fellow southpaw JoJo Romero impressed in high leverage opportunities following the trade deadline, it would certainly reasonable if the Cardinals don’t want to anoint Romero as their bullpen’s top lefty after just 36 2/3 innings of work in the majors last year, no matter how brilliant he appeared to be in flashes.

Of course, Matsui isn’t the only left-handed relief option headed for free agency this offseason. The class is led by star closer Josh Hader, who authored a sensational platform season with the Padres in 2023. Hader struck out 36.8% of batters faced this season en route to a 1.28 ERA (321 ERA+), 2.69 FIP and 33 saves in 38 chances. Other potential high-leverage left-handers set to hit the market this offseason are veteran fireballer Aroldis Chapman and journeyman Matt Moore, who’s broken out over the past two seasons to become one of the top lefty relievers in the sport during his mid-thirties.

In terms of right-handed relief options, the market is a little thinner, headlined by former Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks. The Cardinals dealt Hicks to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline this year, though not before attempting to negotiate an extension with the 27-year-old hurler. Woo reports that the sides came close to an agreement on a three-year extension this summer before talks ultimately fell apart, prompting St. Louis to ship Hicks to Toronto.

Despite the sides parting back in July, Woo indicates that there’s reason to believe the sides could again look to negotiate a long-term deal this offseason, noting that “there’s no ruling out” a Cardinals reunion with either Hicks or left-handed starter Jordan Montgomery, who has impressed since joining the Rangers with a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch and a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings of work during the club’s pennant-winning postseason run. If the Cardinals can’t get together with Hicks on a reunion, there are a few other right-handed relief options who could offer high leverage innings in 2023, including Braves righty Joe Jimenez as well as Reynaldo Lopez, who put up solid numbers while bouncing between the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians in 2023.

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