Archives for September 2023

The Tigers showed signs of progress in the first season under their new front office regime. There’s still another corner to turn to make this a legitimate contender. They could try to close the gap this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Javier Báez, SS: $98MM through 2027 (can opt out after this season)
• Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP: $49MM through 2026 (can opt out after this season)

Option Decisions

• Miguel Cabrera, DH: $30MM club option ($8MM buyout)
• Carson Kelly, C: $3.5MM club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if team declines

2024 commitments (assuming Rodriguez opts out): $33MM
Total future commitments (assuming Rodriguez opts out): $106MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

• Carson Kelly
• Austin Meadows
• Spencer Turnbull
• Tyler Alexander
• Tarik Skubal
• Casey Mize
• Jake Rogers

Non-tender candidates: Kelly, Meadows, Turnbull

Free Agents

• Rodriguez (assuming opt-out), Cabrera, Matthew Boyd, José Cisnero

Towards the end of last season, the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila and hired Giants general manager Scott Harris away to serve as the new president of baseball operations in Detroit. Harris played things cautiously, taking the 2023 campaign as an evaluative year. Now heading into his second winter at the helm, he’ll face more urgency.

Harris recently made a notable off-field move, tabbing new GM Jeff Greenberg as #2 in the front office hierarchy. Greenberg had spent over a decade in the Cubs’ front office, where he overlapped with Harris, before a year in the NHL with the Blackhawks. He’s back in baseball to work under his old colleague and alongside fourth-year manager A.J. Hinch.

The Tigers weren’t facing any significant free agent departures last winter. That’s not the case this time around, as starter Eduardo Rodriguez could head back to the open market. The veteran southpaw has rebounded from a 2022 plagued by middling production and an extended stay away from the club for personal reasons. Rodriguez has turned in a 3.40 ERA across 25 starts, striking out a solid 23.2% of opposing hitters. While his production has tailed off since a late-May pulley rupture in the index finger of his throwing hand, there’s still a good chance he hits the market.

Rodriguez has three years and $49MM remaining on his five-year free agent contract. His camp can make a strong case that he’s a superior pitcher to Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, each of whom secured four-year pacts ranging from $68MM to $72MM last winter. Rodriguez is clearly comfortable in Detroit and invoked his partial n0-trade clause to kill a deadline agreement that would’ve sent him to the Dodgers. He has been noncommittal when asked whether that decision would have any relation to his opt-out call.

From a strict financial perspective, it’d seem likely Rodriguez opts out. The Tigers would surely be happy to have him back in the fold if he plays out his current contract, though they’ll have to plan for the chance he heads elsewhere. There’s no suspense in two of the club’s other option decisions. Javier Báez is going to opt in for the final four years and $98MM on his contract. The team will pay an $8MM buyout to the retiring Miguel Cabrera.

Their final option call is on Carson Kelly. Detroit signed the veteran catcher after he was released by the Diamondbacks midseason. That deal gave the Tigers a $3.5MM option for what would be Kelly’s final year of arbitration. That’s less than Kelly would’ve made had he been tendered an arbitration contract.

Kelly hasn’t performed any better in Detroit than he did in Arizona. He’s hitting .182/.265/.295 in 16 games after running a .226/.283/.298 slash in the desert. Kelly’s production has cratered since he suffered a wrist injury midway through the 2021 season. Even at a $3.5MM price point, the Tigers could look elsewhere. Kelly would technically remain arb-eligible if the Tigers decline his option, though he’d surely be non-tendered at that point. It’d be illogical for the organization to tender him a contract at a higher value than the option price.

Even if they retain Kelly, he won’t be the starter. That falls to Jake Rogers, who has connected on 20 home runs in 353 trips to the plate. The 28-year-old pairs that power with highly-regarded defense. He’s a plus blocker, an above-average pitch framer and receives excellent reviews for his work with a pitching staff. If not Kelly, the Tigers would probably look to bring in another catcher but aren’t likely to seek out a new starter behind the dish.

On the other hand, they could look for upgrades at most spots on the infield. First base is the exception. Former #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson has begun to look like an impact slugger after struggling through his first season and a half in the majors. He’s the only player locked into a spot on the dirt.

Detroit has given looks to multi-positional options Andy Ibáñez and Zach McKinstry. Ibáñez is hitting well in the second half; McKinstry had a solid start to the year but has tailed off significantly. They’re each viable MLB utility players. Neither has demonstrated they’re capable of holding down an everyday role for a full season. Ibáñez turns 31 next April, while McKinstry will be 29. It’s hard to count on either as regulars.

Things haven’t gone much better for the rest of Detroit’s infield. Nick Maton struggled on both sides of the ball after being acquired from Philadelphia in the Gregory Soto trade. Neither Zack Short nor Tyler Nevin has hit well. Late-season call Andre Lipcius is 25 and has never been viewed as a top prospect. Ryan Kreidler has spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A.

At least at third base, the Tigers can hope for better production in the near future. Colt Keith has mashed at a .306/.380/.552 clip between the top two minor levels at age 21. He’s now one of the sport’s top prospects and will surely get a look at some point in 2024, though the Tigers haven’t tipped their hand if he’s in consideration for the Opening Day third base job. Harris resisted calls throughout the season to promote Keith or Justyn-Henry Malloy, instead opting for a slow trajectory for the organization’s top prospects.

Malloy is ostensibly an option at the hot corner himself, though scouting reports suggest he might be better suited for left field. Acquired in the Joe Jiménez trade last offseason, the 23-year-old Malloy owns a .277/.417/.474 line over a full season at Triple-A Toledo. As with Keith, he should be up early in the season, though the defensive home is still up in the air.

Detroit isn’t going to make a run at Matt Chapman or Jeimer Candelario, who has emerged as one of the better hitters in the upcoming free agent class after the Tigers non-tendered him a year ago. Players like McKinstry and Ibáñez could cover third base in the short term if Detroit wanted to give Keith a little more time in Triple-A. Yet they’d be well-served to add a regular up the middle.

The organization obviously hoped Báez would anchor the group when they signed him to a $140MM free agent deal two years ago. Instead, he has hit .230/.273/.360 in a little more than 1100 trips to the plate. Báez is still the starting shortstop for now, but Hinch began to curtail his playing time toward the end of the season. The contract alone isn’t a compelling justification for giving him everyday run.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, it’s an awful offseason to be on the hunt for middle infield help. Amed Rosario might be the best player in the free agent shortstop class. It’s barely better at second base, where Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier lead the group. There’s not much clearer supply on the trade market, where teams like the Giants and Marlins could also be in the mix.

Perhaps the Brewers would move Willy Adames, but he’s not a great fit for a fringe contender like Detroit with only one season of arbitration control remaining. The Cardinals seem reluctant to part with Tommy Edman. Baltimore could move Jorge Mateo, but he’s coming off a dreadful offensive season in his own right. There are a few more options at the keystone, where Brandon Drury or Cavan Biggio could be available — potentially bridging the gap to former #12 overall pick Jace Jung, who performed well at Double-A in his first full pro season.

Given the dearth of middle infield solutions, the Tigers could try to float Báez as a change-of-scenery candidate themselves. Yet he’d be an equally questionable solution for a team like San Francisco or Miami as he is in Detroit. They’d likely have to pay down over three-quarters of the remaining money just to facilitate a deal for a meager return. At that point, it’s probably better to hold onto him and hope for some sort of rebound.

Harris and his staff can feel a lot more comfortable with the outfield. They moved Riley Greene from center to right field late in the season. Assuming he progresses as expected after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, he’ll be back at one of those spots. Parker Meadows, who took over for Greene in center, hasn’t hit much in his first look at MLB pitching. He’s a good enough defender that Detroit could stick with him in hopes the offense improves. Matt Vierling and Akil Baddoo could see some time in the corners — Vierling might also pick up reps at second or third base — with Malloy potentially playing his way into the left field mix.

Kerry Carpenter has rated as a roughly average corner outfield defender. Regarded by many prospect evaluators as a DH-only type, he has impressed with a .288/.346/.492 clip and 20 homers in his first full season at the big league level. With Cabrera retiring, the Tigers could give Carpenter a few more DH at-bats, though his ability to play an adequate left field gives Hinch options.

With that group of young outfielders, it’s hard to envision the Tigers retaining Austin Meadows. Anxiety issues have kept Meadows on the injured list for the bulk of the past two seasons. His mental health is obviously the foremost concern, but there’s probably no longer a place for him on the MLB roster. Detroit could also entertain trade possibilities on Baddoo or Vierling, perhaps as a means of adding a depth starter or middle reliever.

Rodriguez’s potential departure leaves a question mark in the rotation, though there’s still a promising group of fairly young arms. Tarik Skubal is the headliner. He has returned from flexor surgery and picked up where he’d begun last season, working to a 2.95 ERA with a near-32% strikeout rate through 14 starts.

Former #1 overall pick Casey Mize should be back after last year’s Tommy John procedure. Matt Manning somehow was hit by a comebacker that broke his foot on two separate occasions this year. Around that brutal luck, he looked like a decent rotation piece (albeit with an ERA that outstripped his peripherals). Reese Olson has flashed mid-rotation potential in 98 innings as a rookie.

They’ll likely need at least one veteran arm to solidify the staff. Along with Rodriguez, the Tigers traded away Michael Lorenzen at the deadline and lost Matthew Boyd (an impending free agent) to Tommy John surgery. Neither Alex Faedo nor Joey Wentz has done enough to secure a rotation spot.

Detroit has ample short-term financial room. If Rodriguez opts out, they’d have just $33MM in guaranteed commitments entering the winter. The arbitration class is relatively modest. Detroit has opened recent seasons with a player payroll in the $120-130MM range and has spent upwards of $200MM in the past (although that was under the late Mike Ilitch, while his son Christopher Ilitich is now the primary owner).

There’s ostensibly a chance for the organization to make a run at the top of the pitching market. Harris was hired from a Giants front office that generally eschewed long-term investments in starting pitching, preferring reclamation and/or mid-tier acquisitions. Whether he’ll carry that philosophy to Detroit remains to be seen.

If the Tigers wanted to aim high, they’d have a number of possibilities. A deal in the $200MM range for Blake Snell might be rich, but the likes of Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are consistent sources of above-average bulk innings. NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto just turned 25 in August, so his expected prime aligns well with a Detroit team emerging from a rebuild. If they prefer to emulate the Giants’ model, the likes of Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty and Michael Wacha (if his club option is declined by San Diego) could be targets.

Detroit could also subtract a notable name from the rotation picture. Spencer Turnbull once looked like an innings-eating mid-rotation starter who’d be a key contributor. According to various reports, the relationship between player and team looks to have soured over the past six months. Turnbull reported a neck injury after the Tigers attempted to option him to the minors in May, leading Detroit to put him on the major league IL.

The Tigers sent him to the minors once he was healthy, meaning he’ll finish the year just shy of five years of service. Turnbull reported a toenail avulsion that kept him off the mound for a few weeks immediately thereafter, though he has pitched since having the injured nail removed two weeks ago.

Whether the team/player relationship has soured or not, Turnbull looks to have been squeezed out of the rotation. He’s a potential non-tender candidate as a result, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Detroit finds a minor trade return from a club interested in giving Turnbull a fresh start.

The bullpen seems in good shape even after last winter’s Jiménez and Soto trades. They’ll likely let José Cisnero walk in free agency after a dismal second half. A quartet of Jason Foley, Alex Lange, Will Vest and Tyler Holton still gives Hinch a strong collection of options. Perhaps they’ll bring in a second left-hander behind Holton, but it’s a quality relief group.

Detroit erroneously thought the rebuild was over two years ago. They made the ill-fated trade of Isaac Paredes and a Competitive Balance draft pick for Meadows and pushed in for Báez. The internal core wasn’t ready to take the next step at that point. It might be now, with Torkelson, Greene and Carpenter emerging and Skubal reestablishing himself as a top-end starter. There are still holes; the middle infield will be particularly difficult to solve.

Still, there’s a solid MLB nucleus, a few more upper minors contributors looming, and a mostly clear payroll ledger now that the Cabrera contract is drawing to a close. The Tigers play in the sport’s least competitive division. After a year to familiarize himself with the organization, does Harris consider this the right time to make a real effort at ending a nine-year playoff drought?

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Tigers-centric chat on 9-27-23. Click here to view the transcript.