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Byron Buxton Discusses Postseason Availability, Knee Injury

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Twins outfielder Byron Buxton has had a difficult year in 2023, struggling to a roughly league average slash line of .207/.294/.438 in just 82 games while being relegated exclusively to DH duties thanks to troubles with his right knee, on which he underwent surgery this past offseason. With Minnesota having punched its ticket to the postseason, Buxton is nonetheless hoping to return to help the Twins win their first postseason game since 2004 despite not having played in a professional game since August 1.

In a recent interview with La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune, Buxton discussed his hopes of playing in the postseason this year and the injury that’s bothered him all throughout the 2023 season. Perhaps most notably, Neal notes that Buxton’s knee has given him more trouble than was known publicly to this point or that the Twins anticipated it would. Buxton tells Neal that his role as the club’s DH was initially meant to be a temporary situation, but the knee has caused him discomfort throughout much of the season and has needed to be drained multiple times.

Neal notes that young infielder Royce Lewis is likely to take up the DH spot in the postseason lineup while he nurses a hamstring strain that’s prevented him from taking the field. That leaves Buxton unlikely to return to the lineup as a DH in the postseason, meaning that he’ll need to prove he’s healthy enough to play the field in addition to hitting. That leaves Buxton vying for reps in center field against Michael A. Taylor, who has posted a solid season as the club’s regular center fielder in place of Buxton.

Per Neal, Buxton met with Twins manager Rocco Baldelli on Wednesday in order to make the argument that he should be included on the postseason roster. As things stand right now, whether or not Buxton will make an appearance on the club’s postseason roster figures to be decided by how Buxton performs in workouts at Target Field over the weekend, with Neal noting that Buxton is set to hit, run, and play center field while the Twins face the Rockies in Colorado this weekend.

The interview sheds light on the Twins’ postseason plans, indicating that Lewis figures to return to the lineup alongside shortstop Carlos Correa, who was previously reported as expected to rejoin the lineup in time for (or before) the postseason. Regardless of whether Buxton is able to return to the Twins before the 2023 campaign comes to a close, Neal relays a piece of positive news regarding Buxton’s health: per Twins trainer Nick Paparesta, the surgically repaired part of Buxton’s knee is still improving and he shouldn’t be impacted by the injury headed into 2024, which will be his age-30 season.

Pirates Shut Down Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras For 2023

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Pirates manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, this afternoon that right-handers Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras would not pitch again this year, as both players have been shut down for the remainder of the 2023 campaign. With the Pirates well outside the playoff picture and just three games remaining on the club’s schedule after today, the news isn’t a major surprise, though it’s worth noting that Keller was otherwise lined up to take the ball for the club’s final game of the season against the Marlins.

The news officially brings to an end what has been a strong campaign for Keller, who sits atop Pittsburgh’s starting rotation. The former second-round pick struggled badly through the first three seasons of his big league career, with a 6.02 ERA that was 28% worse than league average by measure of ERA+ with a 4.30 FIP in 170 1/3 innings of work (39 starts). Things began to turn around for Keller last season, however, as he posted a solid 3.91 ERA (104 ERA+) with a 3.88 FIP in 159 innings of work. While Keller’s 20.1% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate last year didn’t exactly jump off the page, he did generate an impressive 49% groundball rate in 2022.

Despite it being his fifth season as a big leaguer, Keller was still just 27 years old headed into the 2023 and appeared to be in the midst of a breakout campaign for much of the season. While his 2023 began with a four-run, 4 2/3 inning clunker against the Reds, Keller fired off nine consecutive starts with three earned runs or fewers allowed, including a complete-game shutout of the Rockies and a 13-strikeout game against the Orioles where he posted seven scoreless innings.

Keller’s strong start to the season earned him his first career All Star appearance, and he headed into the break with an impressive season in the works: across nineteen starts before the Midsummer Classic, Keller had a 3.31 ERA and nearly matching 3.32 FIP in 117 innings of work with a 26.7% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 7%. Unfortunately for Keller, his excellence wouldn’t continue into the second half. Over his final 13 starts, Keller mustered just a 5.59 ERA with a 4.52 FIP in 77 1/3 innings of work, with his strikeout rate during that time dipping to 23.8%.

The late-season struggles brought Keller’s final line for the 2023 season in line with his 2022 campaign, albeit with more innings: in 32 starts (194 1/3 innings), Keller posted a 4.21 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 3.80 FIP. Still, if Keller can replicate his strong start to the 2022 campaign next year, Pirates fans have plenty of reason for excitement about the 27-year-old righty’s future. Keller is arbitration-eligible this offseason and won’t be a free agent until the 2025-26 offseason.

Contreras, on the other hand, failed to build on a solid 2022 campaign where he posted a 3.79 ERA and 4.38 FIP in 95 innings of work. The 23-year-old righty struggled badly in 2023, with a brutal 6.59 ERA with a 5.19 FIP in 68 1/3 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 18.2%. The youngster’s struggles resulted in him being demoted from the rotation in late May and spending a portion of the year at the Triple-A level, where he similarly struggled to a 4.96 ERA across 32 2/3 innings. Given Contreras’s pronounced struggles this season, it seems reasonable to expect the former top-100 prospect to enter camp next year on the outside looking in with regards to the club’s rotation plans, though given his youth and previous success he should still factor into the club’s pitching mix one way or another.

Jeff McNeil Diagnosed With Partially Torn UCL; Surgery Not Expected

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Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left elbow sprain earlier today, with infielder Danny Mendick replacing the 31-year-old on the active roster. McNeil subsequently revealed to reporters (including Tim Healey of Newsday) that the injury is actually a partially torn UCL. While UCL damage is always an ominous sign, both McNeil and manager Buck Showalter downplayed the seriousness of the issue. Per McNeil, the plan is for the veteran infielder to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection into his elbow to help address the tear. Surgery is not currently being considered, and Showalter told reporters today that he expects McNeil will be good to go for Spring Training next season.

With just four games remaining in the 2023 regular season and the Mets not in the postseason picture, McNeil’s placement on the IL brought an end to his 2023 campaign even before the severity of the issue came to light. As was the case for many Mets players this year, the 2023 campaign was a down year for McNeil. On the heels of a resurgent 2022 season where he lead the majors with a .326 batting average and posted a 141 wRC+ in 589 trips to the plate, McNeil slashed a relatively lackluster .270/.333/.378, exactly league average by measure of wRC+.

That league average slash line belies McNeil’s overall value as a versatile, everyday left-handed bat capable of playing all over the diamond, and McNeil figures to be an asset to the Mets next season even if his offense doesn’t rebound to its previous levels. Of course, the club was surely hoping for above average offensive production when they inked McNeil to a four-year, $50MM extension this past offseason. At least three years and $43.75MM remain on the contract, which bought out two of McNeil’s free agent years and added a $15.75MM club option for a third.

Looking ahead to 2024, McNeil should once again figure prominently in the Mets’ plans if he is able to return in time for Spring Training as expected. The club could offer extended looks to youngsters like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos around the infield next year, given the club’s expectation of taking a step back in 2024 and primarily focusing on competing in 2025 and beyond. That being said, McNeil’s versatility should allow him to garner everyday at-bats between second base, third base, and the outfield corners even if the focus winds up being on developing young players next season.

As for Mendick, the 29-year-old utility player has received just 66 plate appearances in the big leagues this year, slashing a brutal .190/.227/.286 during that limited playing time. That being said, Mendick is just one year removed from a much stronger season with the White Sox during which he posted a solid .289/.343/.443 slash line across 106 trips to the plate. He figures to provide multi-positional depth off the bench for New York in the final games of the 2023 campaign.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Giants, Heyward

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As the Rockies shift their focus towards the offseason, Kyle Newman of The Denver Post writes that the club is looking to “make up ground” regarding its pitching development and analytics department. While Newman notes strides the club has made recently in those departments, the news isn’t entirely good.

On the pitching side of things, the club has been successful in looking to diversify its stockpile of arms in the minor leagues rather than simply focusing on sinker-slider pitches as they have previously. That being said, one prospect tells Newman that the changes have left the club’s planning for the pitchers they draft as unfocused. What’s more, the rash of injuries the Rockies suffered in the big league rotation this year (including Tommy John surgery for rotation stalwarts Antonio Senzatela and German Marquez) exposed the club’s lack of upper-level pitching depth, a situation that has forced the club to aggressively target pitching help not only in the last two drafts but also at the trade deadline this year.

Looking at the club’s analytics department, while the organization is in the midst of constructing what Newman describes as an analytics-specific building the Rockies call “the Lab”, Newman points out that most organizations around the major leagues already have their own version of such a building. That leaves the project as little more than playing catch-up relative to other organizations. Another example of the Rockies working to merely catch up to the competition is seen in their analytics staff. While prospects in the organization tell Newman that there’s a newfound emphasis on providing the players with digestible data thanks to each level of the organization sporting an analytics coordinator who travels with the team, the Rockies still employ just 11 full-time analysts total, tied for the second-fewest in the majors.

Meanwhile, in a Q&A with the organization’s blog, Rockies GM Bill Schmidt discussed the club’s future and cited the club’s aggressive acquisition of pitching talent as a reason for optimism regarding the club’s future. “We’re trying to make ourselves better and improve our talent base, and along the way, hopefully some of those guys are going to help us,” Schmidt said, “I think we’ve added 38 pitchers over the last two years through trades, the draft and international signings. You would like to think that even if a third of those guys hit, it’s going to help us.”

When asked about organization goals for the Rockies headed into the offseason, Schmidt kept things relatively vague, acknowledging that the club is “not where we need to be by any means” but simply pointing to a need to add depth to the big league roster rather than naming specific areas the club is looking to improve headed into the offseason.

More from the NL West…

  • In losing director of pitching Brian Bannister to the White Sox as Chicago reworks its front office, the Giants have suffered a hefty loss to their pitching infrastructure. Evan Webeck of The Mercury News recently wrote about Bannister’s departure, noting that pitchers in the organization such as righty John Brebbia and veteran starter Alex Cobb were shocked to see the club let Bannister go, calling him a “miracle worker.” Webeck notes that the club seemingly plans to fill Bannister’s role by giving increased responsibility to other members of the club’s pitching infrastructure, with pitching coach Andrew Bailey and assistant pitching coach J.P. Martinez both mentioned as key pitching minds who remain with the organization.
  • The Dodgers have utilized platoons aggressively to great success in their outfield this year, and perhaps no player embodies that success better than Jason Heyward. Heyward’s .270/.343/.481 slash line in 365 plate appearances this season is his best offensive performance since the shortened 2020 campaign, and his best since his rookie season back in 2010 over the course of a full season. That offensive surge is thanks to LA’s focus on optimizing his matchups in order to minimize his at-bats against left-handed pitchers. As a result, Heyward has taken just 27 plate appearances against lefties all season, allowing his career .268/.353/.435 slash line against righties to shine through. As noted by Jack Harris of the LA Times, the mutual appreciation between Heyward and the Dodgers organization lays the groundwork for a possible reunion in 2024 even as Heyward is slated to return to free agency come November. For Heyward’s part, he says it would be “an honor” to be asked to return to the team next season.

NL Notes: Contreras, Pirates, Santana

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Willson Contreras’ season came to an early end when the catcher was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list last week, though the good news is that Contreras’ bout of tendinitis in his left wrist doesn’t appear to need surgery, Cards manager Oliver Marmol told MLB.com and other media.  Contreras met with a hand specialist who advised that the wrist problem can be healed through a non-surgical recovery process, though since this specialist was a second opinion, that would imply that an initial diagnosis perhaps recommended some kind of procedure.

Nevertheless, Contreras will hopefully soon be healed up from both his wrist issue and other injuries, as Marmol mentioned that the catcher had also been playing through nagging soreness in his right hand and left wrist.  The health problems didn’t appear to hamper Contreras’ bat (.264/.358/.467 with 20 homers in 495 plate appearances), but they perhaps impacted his defense, as his framing and blocking numbers were both below average and he received a career-low -9 total as per the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

More from around the National League…

  • The Braves’ success is built on a foundation of long-term contracts with core players, and Yahoo Sports’ Hannah Keyser explores the team’s strategy in getting so many of its younger stars to lock into these deals.  “The sense around the industry is that the Braves put a particular emphasis on exclusively pursuing players whose agents are amenable to extensions,” Keyser writes, which includes some smaller agencies whose own fortunes would be boosted along with their client’s.  Geography is also a factor — Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and Sean Murphy are all either from Atlanta or have some family ties to Georgia or the southeastern United States, so they were particularly open to the idea of staying close to home.  There is also the simple fact that a solid long-term core roster makes other players want to join such a roster, as players are naturally more interested in remaining part of “a good environment, a winning culture,” as Olson put it.  President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is praised for his rapport with the team, and the fact that he tends to first broach the topic of extensions personally with the players is perhaps a reason why so many deals get done (though Scott Boras is one agent who has concerns that such contact can hamper an agent’s ability to get the best possible contract for their client).
  • Several Pirates-related topics were discussed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey in a chat with readers, including the possibility of a reunion between Carlos Santana and the Bucs this winter.  Santana signed a one-year, $6.725MM free agent deal with Pittsburgh last winter, then hit .235/.321/.412 with 12 home runs over 393 PA before being moved to the Brewers at the trade deadline.  Santana has had roughly a league-average bat or worse over the last four seasons and he turns 38 in April, so his market will likely again be limited to fairly inexpensive one-year deals.  This could fit the Pirates’ need for a veteran bat who can play at least part-time at first base/DH, and Santana was a popular mentor figure in the Pittsburgh clubhouse.  Mackey opines that the Pirates should devote the bulk of their spending this offseason towards pitching, with Santana perhaps representing a familiar, solid, and less-expensive answer for the Bucs’ first base need.

Blue Jays’ Jay Jackson Will Be A Free Agent This Winter

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Due to particular language in the MLB contract he signed with the Blue Jays prior to Opening Day, Jay Jackson will be a free agent this winter despite lacking the regulation six years of big league service time, Jays Journal’s Eric Treuden writes.  This isn’t the first time Jackson has pursued this route, as Treuden notes that Jackson had similar free agent language written into prior contracts with the Brewers and Giants over the last four years.

Players with between three years and six years of service time are usually under team control, via salary arbitration.  However, this normal structure is an imperfect fit for players like Jackson, who made his MLB debut at a relatively late age (27) and who have bounced around to several different teams in both North America and Japan.  Though 2023 is Jackson’s age-35 season and he has previously pitched in parts of four MLB campaigns from 2015-22, he still only had one year and 105 days of official service time heading into Opening Day.  Rather than tie himself to the Blue Jays organization for years to come, Jackson and his representatives arranged a re-entry into the free agent market at the completion of his one-year deal with Toronto.

Over 27 2/3 innings with the Jays, Jackson has looked quite sharp in posting a 2.28 ERA over 27 2/3 innings, as well as a 22.9% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.  This performance is all the more impressive considering how Jackson’s focus has been on matters far more important than baseball, as Jackson and his fiancee have been caring for a newborn who came 15 weeks premature.  As a result, Jackson has spent time on the family emergency list, and also spend numerous off-days traveling to Utah to be his family.

His son’s health situation is sure to factor into Jackson’s next contractual decision, as it stands to reason that he might prefer to join a team closer to home.  That said, Jackson signed with the Blue Jays because he prioritized pitching for a contender, and by all accounts the club has enjoyed Jackson’s contributions both on the field and in the clubhouse, so the Jays figure to have some interest in offering Jackson a new deal.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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In conjunction with this installment in our Offseason Outlook series, Steve Adams will be hosting a Pirates-centric chat today at 1pm CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live!

The Pirates’ blistering start to the season gave way to another year of losing baseball and deadline selling. With many members of their vaunted farm system now on the cusp of their first full season in the Majors, they should be set for a more active offseason than in recent years.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryan Reynolds, OF: $100MM through 2030 (includes buyout of 2031 club option)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B: $50MM through 2029 (includes buyout of 2030 club option)

2024 commitments: $17MM
Total future commitments: $150MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

The beginning of the offseason is often a time for changes in the front office or in the dugout, particularly among losing clubs, but there’s no real risk of that among the Pittsburgh brass. Manager Derek Shelton was extended earlier this season, with his new deal beginning next year. There’s been no indication that general manager Ben Cherington is in any kind of jeopardy after a third losing season. Cherington was hired to embark on a full-scale rebuilding effort, and ownership knew from the start that it’d be a lengthy process.

The first and most straightforward decision of the winter will come on lefty Jarlin Garcia’s $3.25MM club option, which will surely be declined after he missed the year due to injury. There’s no buyout on the option, so the Bucs will let him go after a season spent on the injured list.

A larger and more pressing issue for Bucs fans pertains to franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. The former National League MVP returned to the organization that drafted him last offseason, signing a one-year deal worth $5MM. McCutchen has been vocal about the fact that the Pirates and Pittsburgh feel like home to him, and with his 37th birthday just two weeks away as of this writing, he’s made clear that he has little appetite to continue his career elsewhere.

Cherington has been candid about his desire to bring McCutchen back in 2024, stating earlier this month that the two parties would discuss a new contract this offseason. McCutchen’s 2023 campaign ended early due to a partial Achilles tear, but he picked up his 2000th career hit and 400th career double this year in black and gold. The overwhelming likelihood is that he’ll return to the Pirates on another short-term deal in 2024, this time taking aim at his 300th career home run — he’s currently at 299 — and again serving as a veteran mentor for a young Bucs club. Of course, Cutch brings more than just leadership to the table; he batted .256/.378/.397 with a dozen homers and 11 steals in 112 games this year.

Assuming McCutchen is back, he’ll be the primary designated hitter. The Pirates gave him just 64 innings in right field this year, and that was before the aforementioned Achilles injury. He’ll be locked into a largely regular lineup role, joining third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and outfielders Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski in that regard. Hayes had a rough first half but continued to provide elite defense through his struggles at the plate. And, in the second half of the season, he’s erupted with a .307/.345/.556 slash line. Suwinski strikes out too much to hit for a high average but draws tons of walks (14.6%) and has thus far swatted 26 homers and swiped 13 bags. Reynolds’ bat is down a bit from peak levels, but he turned in his third straight season of 20-plus homers and was still a well above-average offensive performer.

At least one other spot on the diamond seems all but solidified. It’s been a lost year for Oneil Cruz, who suffered a fractured ankle in a home plate collision with White Sox catcher Seby Zavala in early April. The 6’7″ Cruz has long been lauded as one of the top prospects in the game due to his near-unparalleled raw power and plus speed. Losing his entire age-24 season to injury is a blow to his development, but he’s still controllable for five years. In his first 410 MLB plate appearances, he’s batted .237/.302/.449 with a jarring 33.7% strikeout rate, but Cruz has some of the loudest tools in the game and possesses star potential. He’ll treat the 2023 season as a mulligan as he looks to realize his upside.

As far as position players go, the Pirates don’t necessarily have anyone else firmly entrenched just yet. Top catching prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis both made their MLB debuts this year, but both struggled at the plate. Davis saw the vast majority of his time in right field, and a move out from behind the plate has long been viewed as a possibility for the 2021 No. 1 overall pick. The Bucs only gave him two big league innings at catcher, though they’ve not yet said he won’t play the position at all in the future. Still, it seems that Rodriguez could well be the preferred option there, with Davis sliding into an outfield/first base/DH/part-time catcher role if the bat picks up.

Both Rodriguez and Davis will play big roles with the Bucs next year, but it might still be prudent to bring in some veteran competition, even if only on a minor league deal. Jason Delay is a fine backup catcher, but if one or both of Rodriguez and Davis wind up needing time in the minors, having another backstop (e.g. Curt Casali, Sandy Leon, Luke Maile) on hand would hold value.

In the outfield, Connor Joe and Alfonso Rivas are options if Davis needs some Triple-A time. But Joe is likely to be arb-eligible and saw his bat wilt after a torrid start to the season (.217/.309/.351 in his past 356 plate appearances). Rivas, 27, has huge Triple-A numbers but has yet to carry them to the Majors in parts of three seasons. Miguel Andujar is a non-tender candidate, and Joe could be as well. There are plenty of affordable corner outfielders on the market if the Bucs want to go outside the organization to provide some competition for Davis. Randal Grichuk, Hunter Renfroe and David Peralta will all be free agents, as will Travis Jankowski and Michael A. Taylor, if the preference is for someone more defensive-minded.

As far as areas that are in clear need of work, the right side of the infield stands out. Last offseason’s first base acquisitions, Carlos Santana and Ji Man Choi, were both traded at the deadline. The previously mentioned Joe wound up playing a significant amount at first base but has seen his season-long batting line dip below the league average despite his hot start to the year. Rivas presents another option here.

Rookie Jared Triolo is a third baseman who’s gotten a few brief looks at first base. He could be an option, but his .292/.382/.385 slash seems bound to regress when his .419 BABIP comes back down to Earth. And given his 29% strikeout rate, it’s fair to harbor some concerns. Prospect Malcom Nunez had a tough showing in his Triple-A debut this year, though he’s still just 22. Garrett Cooper and C.J. Cron are among the short-term options available in free agency,

At second base, none of Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero or Nick Gonzales have forcefully staked their claim to the position. All three are former prospects of note who have minor league options remaining, but second base is another area where the Bucs could at least bring in some veteran competition to steady the position in 2024 and serve as a bridge to top prospect Termarr Johnson. The free agent market at second base is thin behind Whit Merrifield, but the trade and non-tender markets could open up additional avenues.

Turning to the pitching staff, there’s some degree of a foundation in place. Mitch Keller will be back to lead the staff. There could be trade rumors surrounding the righty, as has been the case for much of the past two years, but Keller has stepped up as a solid mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, often showing flashes of an even higher ceiling. With two years of club control remaining, he could well be an extension candidate. (More on that in a bit.) Keller and fellow righty Johan Oviedo — acquired from the Cardinals alongside Nunez in exchange for Jose Quintana — have cemented themselves on the staff. It’s been a rollercoaster season for Oviedo, but the end result will be 175ish innings with an ERA in the low 4.00s. He’s currently at 172 2/3 frames with a 4.12 mark and one start remaining.

There are both depth options and rising prospects who can factor into the starting pitching mix. Righty JT Brubaker will return from Tommy John surgery at some point early next summer. Deadline pickup Bailey Falter has had a tough year but logged a 3.86 ERA in 84 innings with the 2022 Phillies. He’ll be out of options next year, so he’ll have to make the club as either a fifth starter or long reliever — or else be traded or designated for assignment. Right-hander Roansy Contreras entered the year looking like a rotation building block but has struggled in Pittsburgh and in Triple-A. He’ll get additional opportunities in the future, though it’s always possible they come in the bullpen.

Prospects like Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz have already gotten their feet wet, and there’s more help on the horizon. Anthony Solometo, Jared Jones and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes could all debut next year. Skenes’ eventual arrival will be one of the most eagerly anticipated pitching debuts since Stephen Strasburg first took the mound for the Nationals in 2010.

In-house options notwithstanding, the Bucs figure to add at least one arm this year. They’ve added a low-ceiling veteran stabilizer in each of the past three offseasons, bringing Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill aboard on one-year deals — and trading all three at that season’s respective deadline. There’s merit to making a similar play for some bulk innings this winter, with Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley and Martin Perez among the options who’d fit that bill.

Even if the Pirates do make such an addition, however, it’s quite arguable that the time has come for them to do something a bit more on the pitching front. A long-term play for a young ace like Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t going to be in the cards for a club with such a modest annual payroll, and no one is going to predict the Pirates to sign Blake Snell on the heels of a Cy Young-caliber season. But the market offers plenty of upside plays, be it a multi-year pact for a still-young pitcher like Jack Flaherty or a shorter-term pickup of a pitcher looking to rebound from injury. Frankie Montas and Luis Severino both fit that description and would both bring substantially higher upside to the Pirates than their prior offseason pickups.

The bullpen, outside of David Bednar, is lacking in household names but not in quality. Bednar is a star and one of the game’s best bullpen arms, but Pittsburgh also got strong results out of less-heralded names like Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Carmen Mlodzinski and even waiver/DFA pickups like Ryan Borucki and Thomas Hatch.

Some of the rotation candidates who don’t stick as starters will inevitably end up here, but there will also be injuries and regression among 2023’s quietly solid group. There’s certainly room to bring in a veteran arm here, though any veteran seeking closing opportunities will likely look elsewhere, as Bednar won’t be displaced — nor (to the chagrin of other fan bases) will he likely be traded with the Pirates hoping to emerge from their rebuild sooner than later. Phil Maton, Keynan Middleton, Ryne Stanek, Michael Fulmer and Brent Suter are among the many, many relief options available this winter.

Of course, repeated suggestions of the Pirates spending money will be met with anything ranging from skepticism to jokes and mockery. But the Pirates have just two players under contract beyond the current season, Reynolds and Hayes, and they’ll pay that pair a combined $17MM in 2024. There are a handful of players due raises in arbitration, but the prices figure to be modest. Keller will be due a raise on this year’s $2.375MM salary and figures to be the most expensive of the bunch. Brubaker will likely repeat last year’s $2.275MM salary after missing the year due to Tommy John surgery. Bednar is in his first trip through arbitration, and Borucki won’t cost much as a minor league signee.

Even after those arb raises, the Pirates could have under $30MM on the books. That doesn’t include league-minimum players to round out the roster, but it’s nevertheless a gap of more than $40MM from where their 2023 payroll began. And with increased expectations, it’s eminently plausible that ownership will give Cherington & Co. a bit more latitude in terms of spending (albeit not too much more).

Just as there’s room to look into free agency more extensively than in seasons past, there’s also payroll space to consider locking up key long-term pieces. Keller hasn’t reached ace status but holds a strong 3.82 ERA in 54 starts and 318 innings since incorporating a sinker into his repertoire in May 2022. That includes a poor finish to his 2023 season, which will surely be a factor the Pirates consider, but Keller’s workload is at career-high levels and the overall body of work the past two seasons remains strong. He’s logged better-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates in that time (23.5%, 7.5%, 46.1%) and is just 27 years old.

There are plenty of parallels between Keller and Twins righty Pablo Lopez, who inked a four-year, $73.5MM deal with Minnesota earlier this year when he was in the same service class that Keller will be in this coming offseason. Perhaps Keller’s slightly lesser track record and shaky finish will prevent him from quite reaching that annual value, but it’s certainly a relevant comparison.

Bednar, too, stands as a possible extension candidate — though multi-year deals for relievers are rare, particularly once they’ve reached their arbitration years. He has a healthier track record and more saves than Rays righty Pete Fairbanks, who back in March signed a three-year, $12MM deal that bought out his arbitration seasons and gave Tampa Bay control over one free agent year. Bednar is poised to do quite well in arbitration and might command close to double that commitment to put pen to paper, but it’s a concept worth exploring for an excellent reliever who’s popular with his hometown fans.

The Bucs could also look into a long-term deal with Cruz, though that’ll be a tall task as Cruz might want to put this year’s freak injury behind him and prove himself on the field before talking years and dollars.

It’s been a long time since Pirates fans got to follow a playoff-caliber club in Pittsburgh, but the latest rebuilding effort under a still relatively new front office regime is likely moving toward a conclusion. A lot rides on the continued development of high-end prospects like Davis, Rodriguez, Skenes, Jones, Solometo and Priester, but everyone from that group could contribute as soon as next season. Hayes, Reynolds, Suwinski, Cruz, Keller and Bednar give some immediate optimism, and they’ll be joined by that group of promising prospect as well as some veteran additions in an increasingly competitive NL Central next year.

Brewers’ Colin Rea Will Be A Free Agent This Winter

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After signing a minor league deal with the Brewers last winter, Colin Rea ended up pitching 119 2/3 innings at the big league level, starting 21 of his 25 games.  The right-hander will now look to build off that resume on the open market, as MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams (via X) reports that Rea’s contract contains language that will allow him to enter free agency this winter, even though Rea is still well short of the six full years of MLB service time usually required to become a free agent.  Rea entered 2023 with three years and 90 days of service time, and after having his contract selected by Milwaukee in April was shuttled back and forth several times between the active roster and Triple-A Nashville.

Rea spent 2022 with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Nippon Professional Baseball, posting a 3.96 ERA in 100 innings of work.  As Adams notes, it isn’t unusual for players returning from playing in Japan or other international leagues to have some kind of free agent-related clause in their contracts, giving them a bit more flexibility to seek out a larger deal (whether in MLB or abroad) than they would receive as an arbitration-eligible player still under their team’s control.

Rea turned 33 in July, so it makes sense that he would want to maximize his earning potential now since he could be nearing the end of his career by the time he banked six years of service time.  Prior to 2023, Rea had totaled 154 1/3 career MLB innings with the Padres, Marlins, Cubs, and Brewers, pitching in the 2015-16 seasons and then not appearing in the majors again until 2020 and 2021.  In the three years between those two stints, Rea pitched in the minors but spent a big chunk of the time recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Rea had a 4.90 ERA over his first 154 1/3 Major League frames, and his numbers in 2023 were pretty similar.  The righty had a 4.74 ERA/4.46 SIERA for Milwaukee this season, with strikeout and hard-hit ball rates that were well below the league average.  On the plus side, Rea’s 7.6% walk rate and 44.2% grounder rate weren’t necessarily spectacular, but they were both in the 62nd percentile of all pitchers.  As has been the case for a lot of his career, home runs hampered Rea’s performance, as he allowed 23 homers in his 119 2/3 innings.

The statistics may not jump off the page, yet Rea was a valuable fill-in arm for the Brewers, getting the call to eat innings and cover starts while Milwaukee dealt with numerous rotation injuries this season.  Since teams are forever in need of pitching, Rea has a shot at landing a guaranteed Major League contract in free agency, as he can provide rotation depth or work as a swingman out of the bullpen.

The Opener: AL East Race, Rangers/Mariners Series, Acuna

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There are only four days left in the regular season, so here are some of the top stories entering Thursday’s action…

1. Orioles on verge of clinching:

Four of the six division winners have already been crowned, but the Orioles could join the club with a win over the Red Sox today.  Baltimore’s magic number has dropped to one, so just a single O’s win or Rays loss would make the Orioles AL East champions for the first time since 2014, and for just the third time in their last 40 seasons.  In addition to a first-place finish in the AL East, the Orioles would also secure the top seed and home-field advantage throughout at least the American League’s side of the postseason bracket.  (At 99-59, the Orioles probably aren’t catching the 102-56 Braves for the top seed throughout the playoffs.)  It was just in 2021 that the Orioles were 52-110 and still seemingly caught in the throes of a rebuild, making their sudden rise back to prominence all the sweeter for Baltimore fans.

2. Rangers and Mariners begin a critical series:

The Rangers are also closing in on the AL West, though with a magic number of two and with the Astros not playing on Thursday, Texas won’t be able to clinch the division until Friday at the earliest.  Still, heading into the start of this big four-game series between the two AL West rivals, the wild card race will also be a focus since the Mariners sit 1.5 games behind Houston for the third and final AL wild card berth.  With a 9-16 record in September, the Mariners are no longer in control of their own playoff fate, as they’ll have to both pick up at least a couple of wins over Texas and hope for collapses from either the Astros or Blue Jays to sneak into the playoffs as a wild card.  If the Mariners sweep Texas, a longshot scenario also exists that would see the M’s still capture the AL West.  Jordan Montgomery is the Rangers’ scheduled starter tonight, while Logan Gilbert will take the hill for the Mariners.

3. Acuna founds the 40-70 club:

Okay, so it’s technically the 41-70 club, and Ronald Acuna Jr. had also been the only person in the 41-68 club, the 40-68 club, the 39-68 club, and so forth.  But, since round-number achievements just have a bit more of a ring to them, Acuna’s incredible season at both the plate and on the basepaths hit yet another big milestone yesterday when he stole his 69th and 70th bases of the season.  No player with at least 40 homers in a season had ever stolen as many as 46 bags in the same year before Acuna exponentially raised the bar in 2023.

While Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Braves teammate Matt Olson will have something to say in NL MVP voting, Acuna’s huge season is increasingly looking like the favorite to capture the award.  Hitting the 70-steal plateau is also of particular note for a player who suffered a torn ACL just two years ago, making Acuna’s return to not just his old form but to new stolen-base heights all the more remarkable.  MVP results aside, Acuna’s biggest goal is to help lead the Braves to a championship, as his ACL tear forced him to miss Atlanta’s run to the 2021 World Series.

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