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Archives for August 2023

Carlos Carrasco Clears Waivers

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Mets right-hander Carlos Carrasco has passed through waivers unclaimed, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. He was freely available to any club willing to take on his contract but will remain with the Mets, unless the team opts to outright him to a minor league affiliate (which he could reject in favor of free agency).

Acquired from Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster, Carrasco was a quality member of the Mets’ pitching staff in 2022, tossing 152 innings of 3.97 ERA ball with a slightly better-than-average 23.6% strikeout rate against a sharp 6.4% walk rate. As has been the case with so many Mets in 2023, however, he’s seen his performance take a nosedive. The 36-year-old righty has been rocked for a 6.80 earned run average in 90 frames this year, posting the worst full-season marks of his career in strikeout rate (15.8%), walk rate (9.1%) and average fastball velocity (92.9 mph).

In addition to those struggles on the mound, Carrasco has battled injury troubles this season. The right-hander was on the injured list from April 16 through May 19 due to inflammation in his right elbow. He’s earning $14MM this year under the final season of his current contract, with about $2.333MM of that sum yet to be paid out.

Between the struggles on the mound, the early-season elbow trouble and the money remaining on his contract, Carrasco always looked like a good bet to clear waivers. He’ll likely finish out the season on the Mets’ staff and then hit free agency this winter, where he’ll be a candidate for a rebound pact on the open market — be it a one-year deal or a non-guaranteed pact.

Randal Grichuk Clears Waivers

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Angels outfielder Randal Grichuk was not claimed on outright waivers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll remain with the Halos unless they surprisingly choose to outright him to a minor league affiliate, at which point Grichuk would have the right to elect free agency.

Los Angeles acquired Grichuk from the Rockies on July 30. The veteran outfielder had a .308/.365/.498 batting line at the time. He hasn’t hit at all since landing in Southern California, posting a .168/.220/.347 slash in 109 plate appearances as an Angel. Grichuk’s strikeout rate is up more than four percentage points relative to his time in Colorado.

Dismal batted ball luck has surely played a role. After hitting .363 on balls in play for the Rox, Grichuk owns just a .181 BABIP for the Halos. Nevertheless, other clubs were concerned enough about his recent drop-off not to add him to the roster. Los Angeles successfully moved on from Hunter Renfroe — he was claimed by the Reds — so they’ll presumably keep Grichuk on the major league club to play out the stretch run.

The 32-year-old is making $9.33MM on the season. That’s being divided among three teams. The Blue Jays are covering $4.33MM as part of the trade that sent him to Colorado over the 2021-22 offseason. The Rockies are paying down around half the remaining salary as a condition of the trade with the Halos, leaving Los Angeles on the hook for the prorated portion of approximately $2.5MM. Grichuk will be a free agent at the end of the season.

Mariners Claim Dominic Leone From Angels

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The Mariners have claimed right-hander Dominic Leone off waivers from the Angels, reports Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. The reliever was one of a handful of players waived by Los Angeles in a salary dump.

It’s the fourth organization of the season for Leone, who originally broke into the majors with Seattle nine years ago. He began on a minor league deal with Texas but didn’t crack the Rangers’ MLB roster. Leone moved to the Mets via free agency and turned in 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball. He struggled with homers in Queens but posted better than average strikeout and walk marks.

The Halos acquired Leone just before the August 1 trade deadline. As was the case for the bulk of the roster over the last few weeks, he struggled in Orange County. Leone was tagged for eight runs in 13 frames as an Angel. He walked nine while striking out 11. For the season, the 31-year-old now carries a 4.74 ERA across 43 2/3 frames. He’s striking hitters out at a league average 23.4% clip but has now walked just under 11% of batters faced.

It’s not the most dominant performance, but Leone has shown an intriguing arsenal on a pitch-for-pitch basis. He’s averaging just under 96 MPH on his heater and has gotten swinging strikes on a massive 15.7% of his offerings between the two clubs. He’ll add a power arm to the middle innings, furthering deepening a very good Seattle relief corps.

The combination of power stuff but inconsistent results explains both why the M’s rolled the dice on Leone and why so many other teams did not. Seattle had the #26 waiver priority, meaning everyone aside from the Rays, Orioles, Dodgers and Braves certainly passed.

Seattle will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster once they officially announce the claim. Leone can take the extra spot on the active roster during tomorrow’s expansion. It’s a low-cost roll of the dice, as Seattle will take on roughly $258K in remaining salary on Leone’s $1.5MM contract. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

Brewers Sign Greg Allen; Acquire Chris Roller From Guardians

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The Brewers have made a couple of moves, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Outfielder Greg Allen has been signed to a minor league contract and outfielder Chris Roller has been acquired from the Guardians in exchange for cash. Both players will report to Triple-A Nashville for now but are eligible to play for the Brewers in the offseason by joining the organization prior to September 1. Roller was eligible to be traded after the deadline since he hasn’t been on a 40-man roster this year.

Allen, 30, began the year with the Red Sox on a minor league deal but was traded to the Yankees in May. The Yanks added Allen to their roster but he landed on the injured list after just 10 games due to a right hip flexor strain. He returned about six weeks later and played in 12 more games before being designated for assignment and electing free agency.

It was the seventh straight year in which Allen got a part-time gig in the big leagues, having bounced from Cleveland to San Diego, Pittsburgh and the Bronx over the years, never reaching 300 plate appearances in any one season. He’s hit .231/.300/.340 in that time, which translates to a wRC+ of 74. But thanks to his speed, he’s been able to steal 48 bases in 57 attempts and play all three outfield positions with strong grades for his glovework.

Roller, 26, is a somewhat similar player. A 30th-round draft pick of the Dodgers in 2017, he went to the Guardians in the Triple-A portion of the 2020 Rule 5 draft. Since then, he’s taken 768 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A with a .214/.325/.341 batting line, which translates to a wRC+ of 81. However, he’s stolen 34 bases in 45 tries, including going 13 for 17 this year.

Rosters expand from 26 to 28 in September, which gives clubs more leeway to deploy specialized players. Many teams around the league use the extra roster spot to have an extra speed-and-defense player on the bench. Neither Allen nor Roller are on the roster just yet, meaning they are outfield depth for the time being. But by joining the organization prior to September 1, they could be options for the Brewers over the next month and even into the postseason. Since they are not on the 40-man, they will have to be granted a commissioner’s exemption to replace an injured player in October, but that’s not seen as a meaningful obstacle.

Guardians Release Noah Syndergaard

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The Guardians have released right-hander Noah Syndergaard following his recent DFA, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. If he signs with a new team by 11:59pm ET tonight, he’ll be eligible for that club’s postseason roster.

Cleveland acquired the former All-Star in a swap of underwater contracts at the deadline, sending infielder Amed Rosario to the Dodgers in hopes that a change of scenery could help get Syndergaard back to form. Syndergaard, who’d pitched to a 7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings with Los Angeles, signed a one-year, $13MM deal with the Dodgers over the winter. Rosario, an impending free agent who’d been the Guardians’ primary shortstop since 2021, was hitting just .265/.306/.369 at the time of the swap. Neither player has gotten his performance back up to previous levels since the exchange, however.

The Guards might’ve at least hoped that Syndergaard could stabilize an injury-plagued rotation down the stretch, taking some of the innings that were lost when Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie or Cal Quantrill went down with long-term injuries. That hasn’t happened. Syndergaard made six starts with Cleveland, pitching to a 5.40 ERA with a 12.4% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 33 1/3 innings. That 12.4% strikeout rate is the lowest of any pitcher since the time of the trade (min. 30 innings).

Now 31 years old, Syndergaard was one of the most promising power pitchers in the sport early in his career, breaking out as a legitimate Cy Young contender early on. Through his first 518 1/3 big league innings, the 6’6″ righty notched a 2.93 ERA, fanning 27.1% of his opponents and averaging 98.2 mph on his heater along the way. Unlike so many flamethrowers, Syndergaard possessed pristine command, too; his 5.5% walk rate in that stretch was outstanding. His ERA spiked to 4.28 in 2019, but Syndergaard retained premium velocity, strikeout and walk rates while logging a career-high 197 2/3 innings.

Unfortunately, the present-day version of Syndergaard doesn’t look much like that peak version. Tommy John surgery wiped out the 2020 and 2021 seasons for Syndergaard, who serves as something of a cautionary tale and reminder that for as common as the procedure has become, a return to form following such a major surgery is by no means a foregone conclusion. He still boasts outstanding command — he’s walked just 4.9% of his opponents this year — but Syndergaard’s fastball averaged 92.8 mph in Los Angeles and was down to just 91.9 mph during his brief stint with Cleveland. The once-wicked slider that averaged a ridiculous 93.1 mph is down to 85 mph in each of the past two seasons, and his peak 14.2% swinging-strike rate has plummeted to a well below-average 8.2%.

Syndergaard will now hit the market as a depth option for postseason hopefuls. He’ll cost a new club only the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. With active rosters set to expand from 26 to 28 players tomorrow, he’ll have a clearer path back to a big league roster, although a team in the midst of a tight postseason race would likely be wary of plugging him right into the rotation. Many have wondered what Syndergaard might look like coming out of the bullpen — he’s only made two relief appearances in his career — and that could be another avenue for him to join a contender’s staff.

The Opener: Postseason Eligibility Deadline, AL West Race, Braves/Dodgers

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As the month of August comes to a close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Postseason eligibility for external additions ends today:

With several quality names currently on the waiver wire and more potentially useful pieces available through free agency, teams and players will have to match up by 11:59pm ET tonight in order for players to retain postseason eligibility with their new organizations. That won’t be an issue in the case of waiver wire players like Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Randal Grichuk, Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader, as the waiver period on those players ends this afternoon. Players who were recently released or elected free agency, such as Josh Donaldson, Adam Kolarek and Trey Mancini, will presumably look to find a new home before the end of the night. While they could sign with a club in September, they would only be eligible to participate in regular season games for the major league club.

2. AL West turns toward September:

Every team in the AL West has a day off today, leaving the Mariners, Astros, and Rangers bunched within half a game of each other at the top of the division as the calendar flips to September. Houston has something of an advantage headed into the season’s final month due to the easiest strength of schedule among the three clubs, including six games against the Royals and three against the A’s, though Seattle arguably has the most control over its own fate among the three clubs. The final three series of the Mariners’ schedule are on the road against the Rangers (3 games), at home against the Astros (3 games), and at home against the Rangers (4 games). Given the number of intra-divisional games at the end of the schedule with three teams still in hot pursuit of the division title, it seems likely that the AL West race will go down to the wire this season.

3. Series Preview: Braves @ Dodgers

The Braves have started their west coast road trip on a strong note to this point, taking two of three against the Giants at Oracle Park before sweeping the Rockies at Coors Field. Meanwhile, the Dodgers posted an identical record in taking two of three from the Red Sox at Fenway while sweeping the Diamondbacks at home. The two titans of the NL will clash in a four-game set starting today at Dodger Stadium. With both clubs already all but guaranteed a bye in the postseason, the coming series provides a possible preview of the 2023 NLCS, in addition to a rematch of the same series from both 2020 and 2021.

Right-hander Spencer Strider (3.46 ERA) will take the mound this evening against fellow righty Lance Lynn (5.56 ERA), who despite weak overall numbers this season sports a sterling 2.03 ERA in five starts since being traded to Los Angeles. While the Dodgers haven’t announced the starter who will take on right-hander Bryce Elder (3.50 ERA) on Saturday, Friday will see a matchup of southpaws Max Fried (2.85 ERA) and Julio Urias (4.41 ERA). On Sunday, 39-year-old veteran Charlie Morton (3.29 ERA) will face off against 24-year-old rookie Bobby Miller (4.00 ERA).

Thursday’s Waiver Priority Order

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Tomorrow will be an active day on the transaction front. It’s the last day in which teams can add players from outside the organization and still have them eligible for postseason play. Not coincidentally, non-contending clubs placed a number of impending free agents on waivers yesterday. The two-day waiver window for all those players will be resolved tomorrow at 12:00 pm CDT (though it’s possible the claim results won’t be officially announced until later in the day).

[Related: Best fits for Starting Pitchers, Outfielders, Relief Pitchers]

Before getting to the waiver order, a refresh on the priority rules. Claim priority is the inverse order of win percentage as of Thursday morning. Waivers are not league specific, although teams in the same league as the club that put a player on waivers have priority over a claiming team in the opposite league among clubs with the same win percentage. To break ties between teams with identical records and in the same league, the club with the worse record in previous seasons has priority. (A team moves to the back of the line if they’re attempting to claim a player for the second time in a given season, though that won’t be a factor for any of the players known to be on waivers at the moment.)

Tomorrow’s waiver priority:

  1. Oakland Athletics, .291
  2. Kansas City Royals, .304
  3. Colorado Rockies, .368
  4. Chicago White Sox, .396
  5. St. Louis Cardinals, .433
  6. Detroit Tigers, .444
  7. Pittsburgh Pirates, .455
  8. New York Mets, .455
  9. Washington Nationals, .463
  10. San Diego Padres, .463
  11. Los Angeles Angels, .478
  12. Cleveland Guardians, .478
  13. New York Yankees, .489
  14. Miami Marlins, .496
  15. Cincinnati Reds, .511
  16. Arizona Diamondbacks, .515
  17. Minnesota Twins, .515
  18. Boston Red Sox, .515
  19. San Francisco Giants, .519
  20. Chicago Cubs, .534
  21. Toronto Blue Jays, .545
  22. Milwaukee Brewers, .556
  23. Philadelphia Phillies, .556
  24. Texas Rangers, .564
  25. Houston Astros, .570
  26. Seattle Mariners, .571
  27. Tampa Bay Rays, .612
  28. Baltimore Orioles, .624
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers, .629
  30. Atlanta Braves, .659
  • Pittsburgh has priority over Mets based on 2022 record
  • Washington has priority over San Diego based on 2022 record
  • Angels have priority over Cleveland based on 2022 record
  • D-backs have priority over Twins based on 2022 record
  • Minnesota has priority over Boston based on 2021 record, as teams had identical records in ’22
  • Milwaukee has priority over Philadelphia based on 2022 record

This post originally indicated that the Twins had priority over the D-backs. We regret the error.

The Best Fits For Harrison Bader, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk

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A somewhat surprising trend began yesterday when the Angels placed six members of their active roster on outright waivers: Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. The White Sox (Mike Clevinger), Mets (Carlos Carrasco) and Tigers (Jose Cisnero) all followed suit, to varying degrees.

In many ways, it hearkens back to the days of revocable August trade waivers, when it was common for teams to run the majority of their roster through trade waivers. That led to what was effectively a second trade deadline at the end of August, as high-priced veterans who’d gone unclaimed were free to be moved. This set of circumstances, however, is quite different.

The players waived by the Angels, White Sox, Mets and Tigers are on irrevocable outright waivers. Any team that is awarded a claim on one of these players immediately takes on the remainder of that player’s contract. If one of these veterans goes unclaimed — it’s likely that a few of them will — their current team does not have to outright them to a minor league affiliate. They can simply return said player to their active roster and continue playing him as normal. (The Angels reportedly already passed Tyler Anderson through outright waivers last week and just kept him on the roster after he went unclaimed.) Similarly, these players are quite obviously free to keep playing. Many of them played last night. Renfroe literally hit a home run as I was typing this paragraph. Waivers are fun!

The outright waiver period is 48 hours, meaning we’ll have resolution on everyone from this group at some point tomorrow afternoon (though news of the claims being awarded could be staggered a bit). Waiver priority is determined based on reverse order of winning percentage and is not league specific. League-specific waiver priority was unique to revocable August trade waivers and is now defunct. It’s a common misconception that it remains in place, but MLBTR has confirmed with league sources on multiple occasions that waiver priority is simply worst team through best team — in this case, starting with the A’s and ending with the Braves. More specifically, waiver priority is determined based on the reverse standings on the day players clear waivers, meaning we’ll know the final waiver priority for all of these veterans once tonight’s games are wrapped up.

That’s a whole bunch of preamble that may or may not have been necessary, depending on your prior understanding of waiver minutiae. It felt pertinent to do a brief crash course, however, given the unusual nature of this sequence of moves and the major ramifications it could hold with teams in a tight playoff race.

It’s fair to assume the non-contenders are going to pass on picking up any of these players — they’re all impending free agents — but any club with a glimmer of postseason hope could place a claim. That technically includes the Guardians and the Padres, although both are long shots, at best to play meaningful games in October. FanGraphs gives Cleveland and San Diego respective playoff odds of 3.3% and 1.8%, while Baseball Prospectus has the Guards at just 1.6% and the Friars at what seems like a generous 7%. You can never rule out the Padres on big-name players, but they’re already in the third tier of luxury penalization, so anyone they acquire will come with a 75% tax. It’d be a steep price to pay, but hey, when has that ever stopped president of baseball ops A.J. Preller and owner Peter Seidler?

We’re writing about the best fits for this trio of outfielders, however, and the “best” fit doesn’t seem like a team whose playoff hopes are the rough equivalent of hitting a one-outer on the river in a hand of Texas Hold ’Em. So, with all that said, let’s take a look at each outfielder, how much he’s still owed on his contract, his strengths/flaws, whether he’s likely to be claimed at all, and where he might best fit among the group of contenders who’ll have priority over the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays and Mariners (i.e. the upper echelon of MLB’s standings).

Harrison Bader
Age: 29 | Bats: R | Salary: $4.7MM ($783K yet to be paid out) | Position: Center Field

Bader is the youngest, the cheapest and the likeliest of this trio to be claimed. Age and salary play a major role in that, but so does his glove. Bader isn’t just the best defensive outfielder of this bunch — he’s one of the best defensive outfielders in Major League Baseball. He can play any of the three outfield spots, but the defense is so strong that it’s almost a waste to have him anywhere other than center. In 4243 innings of center field play at the big league level, Bader has piled up 43 Defensive Runs Saved and a mammoth 61 Outs Above Average.

For some further context, Bader’s 4243 innings in center field from 2017-23 rank just 96th among all big league players in terms of total innings played at one position. But he nevertheless ranks 18th among all Major Leaguers in Defensive Runs Saved and seventh in Outs Above Average. In other words, even though 95 players have had a larger sample of innings to rack up accolades in that pair of cumulative defensive metrics, Bader still has higher totals than nearly all of them.

Prior to the 2023 season, Bader has been more or less a league-average hitter. From 2018-22, he batted .245/.319/.407 — good for a 98 wRC+. By that measure, he was 2% worse than a big league hitter. For a player with this type of defensive talent, that made him a standout all-around performer. This year, however, has seen his bat take a step back. Bader is fanning at a career-low 18%, but he’s hitting just .239/.275/.365. He’s walking less than ever, hitting more fly balls than ever before, and seeing just 6.5% of those flies turn into home runs (the second-lowest mark of his career).

One thing Bader is doing quite well — and that he’s always done well — is torching left-handed pitching. He’s a career .267/.332/.508 batter against southpaws, but in 2023 he’s absolutely demolishing lefties at a .348/.389/.697 clip. Granted, it’s only 72 plate appearances, but Bader has nonetheless been a behemoth when holding the platoon advantage.

Any team can stand to improve its outfield defense, but there are still a few contenders who could make particular use of this type of glove. The Marlins have been seeking a center fielder for years. They rank 29th in the Majors with -19 DRS and are tied for 22nd with -7 OAA. The Phillies, Red Sox, Giants and Cubs all grade as below-average defensive outfield units, too. As far as production against lefties, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Twins and Reds are all bunched tightly together in terms of wRC+ (ranging San Francisco’s 90 to Cincinnati’s 94). The Brewers are also at 94, but they’re currently tied with the Rangers and Astros for the sixth-worst waiver priority in MLB. It’s hard to imagine Bader falling that far.

The Twins have a similar skill set here (Michael A. Taylor) and are hoping to get Byron Buxton back soon. The Cubs and Red Sox make some sense — Boston in particular, after Jarren Duran’s injury — but both are a ways down the waiver pecking order. Bader would make any contending team better — even if only as a bench player — but he seems like a particularly good fit for the Marlins or the Giants.

Hunter Renfroe
Age: 31 | Bats: R | Salary: $11.9MM ($1.98MM remaining) | Position: Right field

Renfroe’s salary is significant enough that he’s not a lock to be claimed at all — particularly since he’s in the midst of a down year at the plate (the aforementioned homer notwithstanding). A well above-average hitter with the Red Sox and Brewers in 2021-22 when he batted .257/.315/.496, Renfroe finds himself batting .239/.301/.430 on the year — about 3% worse than average, per wRC+. He’s hitting more grounders than he has since his rookie season, popping up more often than ever, and has seen both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate drop to nearly career-low levels.

Earlier in his career, Renfroe was considered a premium defensive outfielder, but his sprint speed and outfield reads have degraded over the past few years, per Statcast. His raw arm strength still sits in the 92nd percentile of MLB players, so opposing baserunners will want to think twice about tagging up when Renfroe is on the receiving end of a fly-ball, but Renfroe’s range simply isn’t what it once was. DRS pegs him at -8, while OAA is a bit more favorable but still gives him a mark of -3.

Traditionally, Renfroe has punished left-handed pitching. He’s a lifetime .261/.342/.523 hitter against lefties in the big leagues, but this season has seen that production muted. Nearly all of Renfroe’s power has come against right-handed opponents; he’s hitting .250/.304/.356 against lefties, with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than he currently sports against right-handed opponents.

Renfroe was hot-potato’ed around the league even during more productive times, bouncing to four teams in four years — Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels — a reflection of the manner in which the market has generally deprioritized/devalued bat-first corner players with OBP concerns. It’ll now cost a team just shy of $2MM to rent him for one month, and that may be a price at which some clubs balk.

That said, Renfroe has some track record and has still been a roughly average hitter in 2023. He’d be an upgrade over bench bats that are being rostered even on a number of contending clubs, and a team dealing with injuries in the outfield could certainly view him as a potential difference-maker.

While the Marlins could use Bader in center, they’re well-stocked on corner options and have Jorge Soler at DH. The Red Sox and Brewers have both already traded Renfroe once. The Giants (Mitch Haniger) and D-backs (Tommy Pham) have relatively similar players. The Twins could view Renfroe as a viable upgrade over Jordan Luplow or the struggling Joey Gallo, and the Reds are a fit with Jake Fraley, Joey Votto and Jonathan India on the injured list. Renfroe could push Nick Senzel back to Triple-A. If Renfroe makes it to the Mariners, he could be an upgrade over Dominic Canzone in left field with Jarred Kelenic out. The Dodgers could certainly afford to add Renfroe with J.D. Martinez on the injured list and a slew of lefty-hitting outfield options — if he makes it that far.

Randal Grichuk
Age: 32 | Bats: R | Salary: $9.333MM ($1.55MM remaining) | Position: All three outfield spots

Grichuk was having a strong season with the Rockies, batting .308/.365/.496 in 263 plate appearances, but his bat cratered following a trade to the Halos. In 104 plate appearances since the swap, he’s batted .165/.212/.351 with a 25% strikeout rate that’s considerably higher than the 19.4% mark he posted in Denver.

Grichuk has long been a limited player despite tools that suggest otherwise. Statcast annually grades him with above-average speed and arm strength, but he’s never been a threat to steal bases and has drawn inconsistent (at best) grades for his defense around the outfield. He’s probably best-suited for corner work at this point, but the Rox and Angels have given him 143 innings in center this year. He has more than 3000 career innings in both center and right, in addition to nearly 1200 innings in left, so he’s at least going to feel familiar with whichever outfield slot he plays.

While he’s long shown above-average power — career .216 ISO, career-high 31 homers back in 2019, five seasons of 20-plus homers — Grichuk’s offensive value is regularly undercut by his distaste for walks. He’s drawn a free pass in just 5.6% of his career plate appearances, resulting in a lifetime OBP under .300 (.296).

That said, it may be a limited skill set, but Grichuk shines in one particular area: tormenting left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .330/.394/.596 against lefties in 2023 and is a career .266/.314/.503 hitter in such situations.

Grichuk is a bit more affordable than Renfroe, is having a much better season against lefties, and can play center in a pinch, so he may hold more appeal. That same group of the Giants, D-backs, Twins, Reds and Brewers could all use help against southpaws. The Giants are deep in right-handed outfielders though, and the D-backs have Pham to fill a similar role. The Reds and Twins could look at Grichuk for the same reasons they might consider Renfroe, and the Brewers could look at him as a boost against lefties who’d take some pressure off struggling Tyrone Taylor and young Sal Frelick.

The Best Fits For Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Dominic Leone, José Cisnero

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Yesterday saw a flurry of players placed on waivers, with the Angels making six players available to other clubs, while the Yankees, White Sox, Mets and Tigers also got in on the act. What those clubs all have in common is that their chances of competing this year are effectively gone, meaning that impending free agents that aren’t qualifying offer candidates have little use to them at this point. Since the trade deadline passed by a month ago, those clubs have no ability to exchange those players for any kind of younger talent, a player to be named later or even cash considerations. But by placing them on waivers, they could perhaps see another team put in a claim and take on the remainder of the salary commitments. For a claiming team, this is perhaps their best way of upgrading their roster after the deadline. As long as the player is acquired prior to September 1, they would be playoff eligible. That’s why all of this is happening now.

Before digging in, let’s clarify the process. This is different than the revocable kind of waivers that existed under the now-defunct August waiver trade system. These waivers are irrevocable, meaning that the players will be gone if any club puts in a claim. But the players have not been designated for assignment nor released. If they are not claimed, they can simply stay on the roster of their current club. Waiver priority will be in reverse order of the standings at the time of the claim and is not league-specific.

MLBTR is breaking it down by position, with this post focusing on the relievers. Let’s start with an overview of who is in that bucket.

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Matt Moore, Angels, LHP: $7.55MM salary, approximately $1.3M remaining

Moore, 34, had his ups and downs as a starter but he recently converted to relief work full-time and has been excellent since then. He had a 1.95 ERA with the Rangers last year and is at 2.30 with the Angels this year, coming into today’s action. In both seasons, he struck out more than 27% of opponents. His ground ball rate has fallen from last year, 43.9% to 34.3%, but he’s cut his walk rate from 12.5% to 7.1%. He has the highest salary of this group but has the best numbers and is the only lefty.

Reynaldo López, Angels, RHP: $3.625M salary, approximately $623K remaining

López, 29, was fairly mediocre as a starter but has been much better since his bullpen move, with a 2.76 ERA last year and 3.86 mark this year. He has bumped his strikeout rate this year from last year’s 24.8% rate to 30.7%, though his walk rate also jumped from 4.3% to 12.1%. He’s been the best of the righties on this list and his salary is about half of Moore’s.

Dominic Leone, Angels, RHP: $1.5MM salary, approximately $258K remaining

Leone, 31, has been fairly inconsistent in his career. He has three seasons with an ERA under 2.57 but also three above 6.32. This year, he’s in between at 4.64 while striking out 24% of opponents and walking 10.9%. He’s not having a dominant season but he had a 1.51 ERA as recently as 2021 and has the lightest salary of anyone on this list.

José Cisnero, Tigers, RHP: $2.2875MM salary, approximately $393K remaining

Cisnero, 34, had an incredible 1.08 ERA last year, though with some unsustainable elements in a .242 BABIP and 88.6% strand rate. This year, the wheel of fortune has spun him around the other way, with a .343 BABIP and 66% strand rate. That’s pushed his ERA to 5.36, a huge jump of more than four runs compared to last year. But his FIP, which takes those luck factors into account, went from 3.67 to 4.38. He has a 25.2% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate this year.

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Now that we’ve covered the process and the players available, who makes sense to put in a claim? We can start by crossing out all of the non-contending clubs. They have no need to pick up an impending free agent and his salary as they play out the string on a lost season.

Since the waiver order goes from the bottom of the standings towards the top, the fringe contenders will have a greater chance of a successful claim than teams at the top of the standings. Those teams will have to decide whether they want to add some salary to their books in order to obtain a marginal bullpen upgrade for the final month of the season.

The Padres have been on the edges of the playoff race all year but refused to sell off impending free agents like Blake Snell and Josh Hader and even added players like Garrett Cooper and Rich Hill. But they are still 7.5 games back of a Wild Card spot and their playoff odds are dwindling. The financials are also important as both Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts have them between the third and fourth CBT threshold. As a third-time payor, that means they are paying a 95% tax on any cash they take on. Given their place in the standings and their financial ledger, it seems like a long shot they would be involved here.

The Red Sox love to cycle through players at the back of their bullpen, frequently making small trades or minor league signings for depth. But they are now 6.5 games back of a playoff spot with the Blue Jays in between. Speaking of the Jays, they are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot but their bullpen is already quite strong. Their relievers have a collective ERA of 3.48, the fourth-best mark in the majors. Rosters expand in a couple of days but they have Chad Green rehabbing and nearing a return from last year’s Tommy John surgery.

The Marlins are three games back of a playoff spot and will certainly be motivated to gain ground, having not made the playoffs in a full season since 2003. Their bullpen has been shaky of late, especially with deadline acquisition David Robertson posting a 7.20 ERA since coming over from the Mets and getting bumped from the closer’s role. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the club is expected to put in a claim on at least one of the Angels’ relievers, though the typically-frugal club might be hesitant to take on some of the larger salaries listed above.

The Braves are last in the waiver priority list and already have one of the best bullpens in the league, making it less likely they will grab someone from this group. The Mariners have enough bullpen depth that they could flip Paul Sewald prior to the deadline and still thrive. The Phillies already have a strong bullpen and are in the second CBT tier and set to be a second-time payor.

As for the clubs that make good sense, there are plenty, as just about any contender could squeeze in a bullpen upgrade from a pure roster construction point of view. The Rangers, Astros, Cubs, Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks, Twins, Brewers, Orioles, Rays and Dodgers are each in postseason position or close to it, with another reliever being a sensible add.

The Rangers were leading their division for much of the year but have recently slid and are now in a cutthroat battle with the Astros and Mariners, with a few recent bullpen meltdowns part of the problem. They are already over the CBT but they have shown plenty of willingness to be aggressive in recent years. The Astros have a strong bullpen but it’s all right-handed, making Moore in particular a logical fit.

The Cubs love to build their bullpen via minor league deals and waiver claims, meaning they are surely intrigued. But Roster Resource and Cot’s have their CBT figure around $228MM, just a bit under the $233MM base threshold. Assuming those estimates are correct, they still have a bit of wiggle room, though those aren’t official. The Giants are one of the most creative clubs at patching together an improvised staff and could fit any of these guys into their budget if they are intrigued.

The Reds have a dynamic position player mix but a flimsy pitching staff that could use any help it can find. The Diamondbacks have a collective bullpen ERA of 4.71 that places them 25th in the majors. They added Sewald at the deadline but there’s room for further upgrades. The Twins’ bullpen is middle-of-the-pack and they are almost a lock for a playoff spot at this point, giving them incentive to further bolster the staff for October. The Brewers have a decent bullpen but have struggled to find second reliable lefty alongside Hoby Milner, which could perhaps lead to them claiming Moore.

The O’s have had a good relief group overall but it’s been a top-heavy unit headlined by Félix Bautista, who now has an injury of some sort to his UCL. The Rays have dealt with a mountain of injuries this year and aren’t shy about cycling through arms in their bullpen throughout the year. The Dodgers have been similarly bit by the injury bug, though these clubs are towards the back of the waiver line and will have to settle for the arms that the others pass on.

The Best Fits For Lucas Giolito

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Yesterday’s biggest development was the number of players reportedly on the waiver wire. The Angels, White Sox, Yankees, Mets and Tigers each put impending free agents on irrevocable waivers.

Those clubs are out of contention. The hope is that another team with a path to the playoffs will take what remains of this year’s contract off their hands. It’s particularly meaningful in the Angels’ case, as shedding enough veterans could allow them to limbo back under the luxury tax threshold after their deadline push fell flat.

No other player known to be on waivers has the upside of Lucas Giolito. The right-hander has had a tough time in Orange County, allowing a 6.89 ERA over six starts. Giolito has been the victim of a home run barrage in Southern California, allowing multiple longballs in three of those appearances. Clearly, the past month hasn’t gone as he or the team had envisioned. Yet we’re only four weeks removed from Giolito and reliever Reynaldo López (also now on waivers) fetching two of the Halos’ top prospects in trade. Now, another team could have him for nothing more than the approximate $1.9MM remaining on his arbitration contract.

Giolito isn’t the only starter out there, but he’s by far the most appealing (at least among the players publicly reported to be on waivers). The Mets made Carlos Carrasco available. He has a 6.80 ERA through 20 starts on the season, though. He hasn’t shown much sign of recent progress, allowing 35 runs and a staggering .404/.450/.654 opponents’ batting line in 29 innings since the All-Star Break. It’s hard to imagine him as an upgrade for a contending pitching staff, particularly since there’s still around $2.6MM remaining on his $14MM salary.

Mike Clevinger would be a clearer roster upgrade than Carrasco. He missed a month and a half midway through the year with biceps inflammation. A return one start before the August 1 deadline wasn’t sufficient to drum up trade interest. Clevinger has turned in a solid enough season, though, pitching to a 3.32 ERA over 97 2/3 innings. While his 20.8% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk percentage are each worse than average, it’d be easy enough for a number of hopeful contenders to find room for Clevinger at the back of their rotation — at least from an on-field perspective.

Complicating matters is the structure of the righty’s contract. Clevinger’s $8MM salary isn’t the issue, as most teams could easily accommodate the roughly $1.5MM still to be paid out. Yet there’s also a $4MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for next season. Clevinger receives the buyout regardless of which side declines the option and is very likely to return to free agency since mutual options are almost never triggered by both sides. A claiming team would have to take on responsibility for the buyout as well — it’s all or nothing for assuming a player’s contract off waivers — so it’d be a nearly $5.5MM investment for a month (and perhaps a playoff run) of Clevinger’s services.

That’s a tough sell for a team. If there were no option buyout, he’d need to be playing this season on a $30MM salary to have that kind of money remaining on his deal. It’s hard to imagine any team views Clevinger as equivalent to a $30MM pitcher, even for just a few weeks.

While Carrasco and Clevinger seem like borderline waiver claims at best, there’s little doubt someone will add Giolito. Despite his recent struggles, he’d be a clear upgrade for fringe contenders with uncertain rotation outlooks.

A few things to remember before taking a look at the likeliest teams to make a claim. It’ll be a club with playoff aspirations. Giolito would be the best pitcher on the A’s, but there’s no incentive for them to add him when he’ll be a free agent in five weeks. Yet he’s probably not going to wind up with one of the three best teams in the sport. Waiver priority is in inverse order of the MLB standings as of tomorrow morning. The Dodgers, Orioles and/or Braves could place a claim, but it’s very likely someone with a worse record will do so as well and beat them out.

Let’s identify potential fits (in expected waiver priority order):

  • Padres (62-72)

This could be a test of how much optimism remains in the San Diego front office. The Padres are 10 games under .500 and eight out of the final NL Wild Card spot. A postseason run is hard to envision at this point. Yet the Friars held Blake Snell and Josh Hader at the deadline and acquired Garrett Cooper, Ji Man Choi, Scott Barlow and Rich Hill. If there’s any hope for 2023 left at Petco Park, a Giolito claim would be the last sign. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are on the injured list, leaving Hill and Pedro Avila in the starting five. There’s room for Giolito on the roster. A couple million dollars doesn’t seem much of a deterrent for owner Peter Seidler. The question is simply whether the Padres still think they have a shot.

  • Marlins (66-66)

Miami looked into rotation possibilities at the deadline but ultimately brought in just a depth starter in Ryan Weathers. They’ve kept Edward Cabrera in Triple-A for the past month. Johnny Cueto is on the injured list, while it’s unclear if Trevor Rogers will return at all this season. There’s a strong front four in Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and rookie Eury Pérez. There’s enough uncertainty with the final rotation spot that Miami could consider a claim.

Notably, the Marlins aren’t guaranteed to remain above the Reds’ in the waiver order. A Marlins win over the Rays paired with a Cincinnati loss in San Francisco would push Miami’s win percentage marginally above that of the Reds.

  • Reds (68-66)

The Reds are the first club where it’d be incredibly surprising if they didn’t put in a claim on Giolito. Cincinnati didn’t address their rotation at the deadline despite ranking 27th at the time in rotation ERA. They’ve been no better over the past month, with their starters allowing 5.86 earned runs per nine in 26 games. Hunter Greene returned from the injured list in the intervening weeks but was shelled in his first two starts back. Nick Lodolo —  initially expected back from a leg injury at the end of this month — suffered a setback. Even with Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson performing well of late, there’s clear room for more help. The Reds checked in with the White Sox about their rotation before the deadline, presumably at least gauging Chicago’s asking price on Giolito before they sent him to Anaheim.

  • Twins (69-65)*

Giolito would be a luxury buy for a Minnesota club that’s on its way to an AL Central title. The rotation is already strong, anchored by Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Joe Ryan. The Twins have gotten decent enough work from Dallas Keuchel that they optioned Bailey Ober to Triple-A. Placing a claim would simply be about deepening the pitching staff for the postseason, where skipper Rocco Baldelli could have quicker hooks for everyone aside from López and Gray.

  • Red Sox (69-64)

The Red Sox may feel their rotation is strong enough to pass on Giolito. They’re running with a starting five of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. That’s a pretty good group, although they’re middle-of-the-pack in ERA and strikeout rate since the All-Star Break. Paxton, Sale and Houck have had injury concerns. Houck and Crawford have spent time in the bullpen this season.

Starting pitching isn’t necessarily a need, but adding any kind of talent could be welcome for a club that has fallen 6.5 games out of the last AL Wild Card spot. Boston has roughly $9MM in payroll space before reaching the base luxury tax threshold, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’d only take on the remaining portion of Giolito’s salary if they claimed him, so that shouldn’t be an issue.

  • Diamondbacks (69-64)

If Cincinnati, Boston (and everyone else in front of them) passes on Giolito, the D-Backs figure to step in. They’re quite similar to the Reds. Arizona’s a surprise contender that sought but didn’t find rotation upgrades for the deadline. They also touched base with the Sox on Giolito. There’s still very little depth beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Righty Slade Cecconi has five MLB appearances to his name. Brandon Pfaadt has been knocked around as a rookie. Zach Davies probably shouldn’t be starting for a team with playoff aspirations. Tommy Henry, arguably the club’s third-best starter, seems likely to miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury.

*Note: Boston, Minnesota and Arizona could swap places in waiver priority tonight. When multiple clubs have the same record, priority goes to the team in the same league as the team that put the player on waivers. Within leagues, priority goes to the team that had the worse record in prior seasons. If they all have the same record going into tomorrow, the order would go Minnesota (worse record than the Red Sox in 2021) – Boston – Arizona.

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It’s tough to envision scenarios where Giolito gets past the Diamondbacks. At least one of Miami, Cincinnati and Arizona should be motivated enough to make a claim. Contenders like the Cubs, Rays, Orioles and Dodgers may all have interest, but it’d require inexplicable decisions to pass on the part of a few teams in front of them. Perhaps clubs near the back of the waiver order will consider a flier on Clevinger as a fallback, though the aforementioned contract situation makes that far less appealing than getting Giolito would be.

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