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Archives for August 2023

Cubs To Promote Jordan Wicks

By Mark Polishuk | August 26, 2023 at 2:07pm CDT

2:07PM: Wicks will actually start today’s game, as the team informed reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that Javier Assad will now start Sunday instead of today.

10:13AM: The Cubs are set to call up left-hander Jordan Wicks, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (X links).  There had been plenty of speculation that Wicks was on the verge of a call-up, and now the southpaw (who turns 24 on September 1) will get an early birthday present Sunday when he makes his MLB debut in a start against the Pirates.

Wicks was the 21st overall pick of the 2021 draft, drawing Chicago’s attention after a standout collegiate career at Kansas State.  That success has translated into a pretty quick rise through the farm system, as Wicks has now reached the majors a little over two years since his draft date.  Making his Triple-A debut just this past June, Wicks has a 3.82 ERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, and 9.8% walk rate over the limited sample of 33 innings for Triple-A Iowa.

This was enough to earn Wicks at least one start at the big league level, as it is possible he might be quickly ticketed back to Triple-A after helping the Cubs get through an extended stretch of games.  Marcus Stroman’s injury seemed to herald Drew Smyly’s return to the rotation, but Chicago has instead decided to keep Smyly in the bullpen, creating the need for a new starter on Sunday.  Wicks has pitched beyond the fifth inning only once in his 20 minor league games this season, so Sunday’s game might be more of a piggyback situation, with Smyly or other relievers stepping in before Pirates batters can face Wicks for a second time.

Still, even a cup of coffee in the majors is a huge moment in Wicks’ career, and it can serve as an audition for a longer look once rosters expand in September, or going into next season.  Stroman can opt out of his contract and the Cubs might not exercise Kyle Hendricks’ club option, leaving some possible rotation spots open heading into Spring Training.  Wicks has an opportunity to turn some heads and get himself into that conversation, with his minor league resume already standing out.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Wicks 51st on his preseason top-100 listing, though Wicks has yet to crack the top 100 for either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline in their preseason or midseason rankings.  BA places Wicks as the eighth-best prospect in the Cubs’ farm system and Pipeline has him 10th, and all of the pundits feel he can become a big league-caliber starter in the middle or back of a rotation.  Wicks’ outstanding changeup is the highlight of his five-pitch arsenal, though his slider is the only other offering that shows above-average potential.  For more on Wicks’ development, James Fegan of the Chicago Sun-Times published a piece today with quotes from Wicks and Triple-A pitching coach Ron Villone about the youngster’s approach on the mound.

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Chicago Cubs Top Prospect Promotions Transactions Jordan Wicks

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NL West Notes: Musgrove, Yaz, Brebbia, McLain, D’Backs

By Mark Polishuk | August 26, 2023 at 2:00pm CDT

After a three-week shutdown due to shoulder inflammation, Joe Musgrove has started a two-week throwing program as the first step towards a possible return from the injured list.  Musgrove tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that he is aiming to be back with the Padres by late September and hopefully through the postseason, though he acknowledged that another shutdown is possible if the team is out of the pennant race.  Things are looking grim for the Padres at the moment, as they sit 6.5 games out of the last NL wild card position.

“There’s no need for me to be rushing and pushing things back if we’re out of this thing,” Musgrove said.  “But I have full confidence that we’re going to be in it, so these first two weeks are going to be important in just laying down the foundation work and being able to open up from there….It’s difficult knowing that there’s a chance I might not touch a mound again this year.  But every part of me mentally and physically is preparing to be able to get at least one more (start) in the regular season and then be strong for the playoffs.”

Between a broken toe suffered in Spring Training and his shoulder issue, it has been an injury-riddled year for the right-hander, as Musgrove has thrown only 97 1/3 innings.  His absences have been one of the reasons why San Diego is only on the fringes of contention, yet Musgrove has still looked like an ace when he has pitched, posting a 3.05 ERA over his 97 1/3 frames.  Acee writes that Musgrove will also probably undergo another MRI next week, to check up on the shoulder after the first few days of throwing.

Other items from around the NL West…

  • Mike Yastrzemski is closing in on a return from the injured list, as he recently took part in a live batting practice session and ran the bases yesterday.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (X link) writes that Yastrzemski is set for more baserunning work tomorrow, and he has been working in the outfield today.  Yastrzemski has been out with a hamstring strain since July 30, and seemed to be on the verge of a return two weeks ago before suffering another strain during rehab work.  Now, the outfielder could return to San Francisco’s lineup as early as Monday, when the Giants begin an important series with the Reds.
  • In another Giants injury update, John Brebbia threw that live BP session to Yastrzemski, and Slusser writes that the plan is for Brebbia to throw another simulated game Sunday with an eye towards soon beginning a minor league rehab assignment.  Brebbia suffered a Grade 2 lat strain back in June, and he has been sidelined beyond his initial recovery timeline of 4-8 weeks.  While he’ll need some time to ramp up during his rehab assignment, Brebbia’s return could be a big boost to a Giants club in need of pitching help.  Brebbia has posted strong numbers as a swingman over the last two seasons, including a 3.14 ERA over 28 2/3 innings in 2023.
  • Matt McLain’s instant success with the Reds creates an interesting sliding-doors moment for the Diamondbacks, who drafted McLain 25th overall in 2018 but didn’t reach an agreement to sign.  Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes that the two sides couldn’t manage the gap between McLain’s ask for a $3MM bonus and the Diamondbacks’ offer, which was the $2,636,400 slot price attached to the 25th pick.  Beyond the money, McLain told Piecoro that “I was pretty set on [playing in college].  I wanted to go to UCLA.  I think that if I would have signed in the minor leagues at that point, I would have always wondered what UCLA was like and what I had missed out on.  I don’t think it was necessarily the other way around.”  As it turned out, McLain had a standout career in college, and ended up picked by the Reds with the 17th overall pick in the 2021 draft, receiving a $4.625MM bonus that was well above slot price.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Cincinnati Reds Notes San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Joe Musgrove John Brebbia Matt McLain Mike Yastrzemski

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Nationals Select Jacob Young, Transfer Stone Garrett To 60-Day IL

By Mark Polishuk | August 26, 2023 at 1:15pm CDT

1:15PM: The Nationals have now made it official, announcing that they have selected Young’s contract. In corresponding moves, infielder Jeter Downs was optioned to Triple-A Rochester and Garrett was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Garrett suffered a fractured fibula earlier this week and underwent a season-ending surgery yesterday, as Nats manager Davey Martinez informed the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden and other reporters.

11:51AM: The Nationals are calling up outfield prospect Jacob Young, according to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (X link).  Young will be making his MLB debut whenever he appears in a game, which could be as early as today against the Marlins.  The Nats will need to make at least one corresponding move, since Young isn’t on the 40-man roster.

Young is a University of Florida product who was a seventh-round pick for the Nationals in the 2021 draft.  Playing in A-ball for his first two pro seasons, Young has made a quick progression in 2023, starting in high-A ball and now moving all the way up to the majors.  Hitting well at both the high-A and Double-A levels, Young has only played in four Triple-A games, appearing in Rochester for the first time just earlier this week.

Over 496 total minor league plate appearances this season, Young has hit .305/.376/.418, with six homers and an impressive stolen base ratio of 39 steals against seven times caught.  This comes on the heels of Young’s 52 steals (in 59 chances) at A-level Fredericksburg in 2022.  Pundits rate Young as plus-plus speed, with Baseball America’s scouting report noting “some scouts called him one of the best baserunners they have ever seen.”

This skill alone makes the 24-year-old Young an interesting player to watch, though the rest of his game might need some polish.  BA ranks Young 24th among Washington prospects and MLB Pipeline ranks him 30th, as Young doesn’t have much power and is reliant on his speed to beat out a grounder-heavy approach.  His defense is promising, since Young has mostly played left field in the pro but has also seen time as a center fielder and right fielder, as well as a couple of games at second base.

With Stone Garrett likely out for the season due to a leg fracture, the Nationals have some need for outfield help.  Young figures to join Lane Thomas, Alex Call, Jake Alu, Blake Rutherford, and utilityman Ildemaro Vargas in the outfield mix, as the rebuilding Nats continue to evaluate their young talent while quietly playing some quality baseball in recent weeks.  Washington has a 24-15 record since the All-Star break.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Jacob Young Jeter Downs Stone Garrett

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Dodgers Sign Oscar Mercado To Minor League Contract

By Mark Polishuk | August 26, 2023 at 11:16am CDT

The Dodgers have signed outfielder Oscar Mercado to a minor league deal, MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams reports (via X).  Mercado will report to the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate.

After signing a minors contract with the Cardinals last November, Mercado had his deal selected and he appeared in 20 games for St. Louis before being designated for assignment at the start of July.  Mercado opted for free agency rather than accept an outright assignment, and while he landed pretty quickly with the Padres on another minor league deal, he hit the open market again earlier this week when he exercised an opt-out clause in that contract.

Mercado’s path has now taken him to Los Angeles, where he’ll try to become the latest player to resurrect his career in Dodger blue.  The 28-year-old made his MLB debut in 2019 with Cleveland and finished eighth in Rookie of the Year voting that year, though his star dimmed after a lot of struggles at the plate.  Mercado went back and forth between the Guardians and Phillies on a pair of waiver claims that put him back in Cleveland for the remainder of the 2022 campaign.

Mercado is still a very solid hitter at the minor league level, including a .308/.379/.544 slash line over 283 Triple-A plate appearances this season.  While his career MLB slash line is a much more modest .237/.289/.388 over 973 PA, he has hit left-handed pitching generally better, and Mercado also offers skills beyond the bat.  He can play all three outfield positions in above-average fashion, and he is a quality basestealer, with 25 swipes in 29 attempts at Triple-A this year.

The Dodgers already have plenty of outfield options on their MLB roster, though Mookie Betts has still seen a good deal of second base action and L.A.’s overall hitting depth took a hit when J.D. Martinez was placed on the 10-day injured list.  Mercado might essentially take the minor league depth spot ticketed for Jake Marisnick before Marisnick suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him sidelined until mid-September due to a 60-day IL placement.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Oscar Mercado

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Felix Bautista Leaves Game Due To “Arm Discomfort”

By Mark Polishuk | August 26, 2023 at 9:38am CDT

Felix Bautista left last night’s 5-4 Orioles win over the Rockies with an apparent injury.  The star closer had recorded the first two outs of a save situation, but after throwing the fourth pitch of an at-bat against Michael Toglia, Bautista looked to be somewhat shaken up on the mound.  Bautista then departed the game with a team trainer, and Danny Coulombe took over to record the final out.

In a postgame discussion with MLB.com’s Byron Kerr and other reporters, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said “Bautista left the game with some arm discomfort.  He is still being checked out.  I’m not going to discuss it any further than that.  We are going to get a bunch of tests and see how it is.”

At this stage, it is too soon to tell whether or not Bautista’s issue is anything serious, or perhaps just a minor tweak that will only sideline him for a game or two.  Still, even the possibility of a Bautista injury is a very notable storyline, as the closer has been such a key part of Baltimore’s rise to the best record in the American League.

Exploding onto the scene with a big rookie season in 2022, Bautista has taken things to an even higher level this year.  The 28-year-old has a 1.48 ERA and a whopping 46.4% strikeout rate over 61 innings, converting 33 of 39 save opportunities.  While his 11% walk rate is concerning, Bautista has been almost untouchable when he has been able to find the zone, and his four-seamer (averaging 99.6mph) is among the most dominating pitches in the sport.

The nature of Bautista’s injury isn’t known, but this isn’t the first time he has dealt with some manner of arm trouble.  His offseason work and entry into Spring Training was hampered by some shoulder problems as well as knee soreness, though Bautista overcame both injuries and entered the season none the worse for wear, given his subsequent success.

Losing Bautista for any amount of time would be a big setback for the Orioles’ chances of winning the AL East (they hold a three-game lead over the Rays), or their chances of making a deep run into October.  If Bautista was out of action, setup man Yennier Cano would be the logical candidate to step into the closer role, with Coulombe then becoming the top setup option.  Conceivably, Hyde could divide the save opportunities between the right-handed Cano and the left-handed Coulombe based on specific in-game situations.

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Baltimore Orioles Felix Bautista

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Twins Reinstate Joe Ryan From Injured List

By Anthony Franco | August 26, 2023 at 9:35am CDT

TODAY: The Twins officially reinstated Ryan from the 15-day IL, and righty Jordan Balazovic was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.

AUGUST 25: The Twins are listing Joe Ryan as the probable starter for tomorrow evening’s game with the Rangers. They’ll need to reinstate him from the 15-day injured list. Ryan will oppose Max Scherzer in the third contest of a four-game set.

Ryan missed three weeks after straining his left groin. It isn’t clear if he’d been pitching through discomfort before his IL placement. His results immediately prior to landing on the shelf had taken a sharp downturn, though. Ryan carried a 3.70 ERA through 107 innings into the All-Star Break. He was tagged for 18 runs in 19 frames in four starts out of the Break, pushing his season mark to a middling 4.43 earned runs per nine.

Whether that was directly tied to his groin concern, the Twins will hope the few weeks off allows Ryan to recapture his early-season form. His return could lead to a roster decision for the front office and manager Rocco Baldelli. Ryan joins Pablo López and Sonny Gray at the top of the rotation. The Twins have filled out the starting staff with Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel — whose contract was selected at the time Ryan landed on the IL — this month.

Maeda has a 2.91 ERA while striking out 32% of opponents in 11 starts since returning from an IL stint of his own at the end of June. Ober still has minor league options remaining, but he’s been a quietly effective rotation piece. Over 21 starts and 118 2/3 innings, the third-year hurler owns a 3.41 ERA and has fanned just under a quarter of batters faced. He’s clearly deserving of a spot on the big league staff.

Perhaps that leaves Keuchel as the odd man out. The former Cy Young winner has tossed 13 innings over three outings, allowing seven runs. He has struck out just three against four walks and a hit by pitch. He’s averaging 87.5 MPH on his sinker and has gotten swinging strikes on only 6.3% of his pitches.

On the other hand, Keuchel’s ground-ball rate sits at an excellent 56.3%. That’s not quite at the levels of his peak days in Houston but is markedly above last season’s 50.2% mark. Keuchel also kept the ball on the ground at a huge 61.1% clip through six Triple-A starts before his call-up, posting a 1.13 ERA in the process.

Earlier this week, Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote that the Twins were considering the possibility of a six-man rotation after Ryan’s activation. That’d allow the coaching staff some flexibility in workload management. Maeda missed all of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, though he’s only at 74 2/3 frames this year. Ober has shouldered the heaviest work of his career in 2023. Including four Triple-A starts in the opening month, he’s at 136 1/3 frames for the year. His previous high for combined innings was 108 1/3 during the ’21 campaign.

Hayes also indicates that piggybacking some combination of Ober, Maeda and Keuchel could be on the table. That’d be another means of limiting workload while reducing the number of times those pitchers face an opponent a third time in a game. While keeping all six starters on the roster would temporarily shorten the bullpen, teams are permitted to add one pitcher to the MLB club on September 1.

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Minnesota Twins Bailey Ober Dallas Keuchel Joe Ryan Jordan Balazovic Kenta Maeda

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Rockies, Charlie Blackmon Have Mutual Interest In New Contract

By Mark Polishuk | August 26, 2023 at 8:50am CDT

Charlie Blackmon is slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career, as the veteran outfielder is in the final season of the five-year, $94MM extension he signed with the Rockies back in April 2018.  However, it seems possible that Blackmon could end up remaining in Colorado, as both the player and the team have interest in continuing the relationship.

Rockies GM Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that the club is “very interested” in retaining Blackmon, adding that “Charlie would provide a good leadership structure for our young guys.  And he can still play.”  From Blackmon’s perspective, he said he would be open to playing for a new team, “but Colorado is certainly my first choice….Right now, I’m not thinking about any other options.”  Blackmon also left open the possibility of retirement, stating “I’m not saying officially, either way,” that he plans to play in 2024, but “there is definitely a possibility I’ll come back.”

Between the Rockies’ last-place record and a fractured hand that cost him almost two months of action, it has been a difficult season for Blackmon, despite some solid personal statistics.  The 37-year-old is hitting .285/.372/.463 with seven home runs over 285 plate appearances, translating to a 113 wRC+.  This would be Blackmon’s best offensive performance (and first above-average season at the plate) since 2019, when he posted a 127 wRC+ as part of a 32-homer campaign.  While Blackmon’s hard-contact rates haven’t been good, he is at least making a lot of contact, as he has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any batter in the league.

Despite these numbers, Blackmon’s age and relative lack of defensive utility figures to limit his free agent market, perhaps capping him at one guaranteed year or a one-year deal with a club/vesting option.  A two-year contract might be feasible with the Rockies as a nod to his long history with the team, as Blackmon has played all 13 of his Major League seasons in the Mile High City.  As Schmidt noted, Blackmon has stature as a clubhouse leader, which is important for a team that is counting on an upcoming core of young players to get the franchise back on track.

Blackmon has played only right field for the last five seasons, with the UZR/150 metric loving his glovework while other defensive metrics rank him as average or below average on the grass.  Since the National League instituted the designated hitter, Blackmon has spent more time as a DH than as a right fielder, and that usage is likely to continue into 2024 should Blackmon indeed return to Colorado.

Michael Toglia figures to get regular looks at both first base and in right field next season, so a scenario exists where the Rox could use Blackmon in right field whenever Toglia has infield duty, and then the DH spot could be rotated between Blackmon and other players.  Of course, Kris Bryant is also a factor, and as Saunders notes later in the piece, Bryant and manager Bud Black have both been open to the possibility of Bryant playing mostly as a first baseman next year.  Nolan Jones’ emergence will make him a regular in the Rockies’ lineup in some fashion next year, though Jones has played more left field recently and that might be his primary position in 2024 even if Colorado does toggle him around to a few different positions.

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Colorado Rockies Charlie Blackmon

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Giants Sign Cody Stashak To Minors Deal

By Mark Polishuk | August 26, 2023 at 7:54am CDT

The Giants signed right-hander Cody Stashak to a minor league contract earlier this month, and Stashak made his debut appearance with Triple-A Sacramento yesterday.  The 29-year-old had been pitching for the Lancaster Barnstormers of the independent Atlantic League before the Giants purchased his contract.

A 13th-round pick for the Twins in the 2015 draft, Stashek made his big league debut in 2019 and saw some action for Minnesota in each of the next four seasons.  Over 72 total innings in the Show, Stashek posted a 4.13 ERA, an impressive 27.6% strikeout rate, and a very strong 4.7% walk rate.  That latter stat is all the more impressive considering Stashek’s rough 2021 season that saw him a 13.3% walk rate over 13 2/3 innings, leading to a 6.89 ERA.

Stashak was bouncing back pretty well from that 2021 disappointment when he hit another roadblock — a labrum tear in his throwing shoulder that required season-ending surgery in June 2022.  The rehab kept Stashak out of action for over a year, and he’d only made two appearances with Lancaster before the Giants came calling.  (Stashak initially became a free agent last November, when he elected to pursue the open market rather than accept an outright assignment to the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate.)

Now that Stashak is apparently healthy again, there’s no risk for the Giants in seeing what the righty do in an affiliated minor league setting, and there’s a chance Stashak could even figure into the club’s bullpen plans down the stretch.  San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has hit paydirt on more than a few under-the-radar pitching acquisitions during his tenure in the front office, and Stashak’s (albeit limited) track record of MLB success indicates that he might have something more to offer.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Cody Stashak

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2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

By Steve Adams | August 25, 2023 at 10:59pm CDT

We’re now about three quarters of the way through the regular season, and the free-agent landscape has changed considerably since our last power rankings back in June. With the trade market passed, we now know who will and won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer at season’s end. (Traded players cannot receive a QO.) Max Scherzer needn’t be listed at the back of the list or among the honorable mentions now that he’s agreed to pick up next year’s player option as part of the condition of his trade to Texas. Injuries, performance trends — both good and bad — and many other factors all contribute to shifts in market expectation.

As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Age, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.

Our Power Rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

*=Player option/opt-out opportunity
**=Currently playing in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Angels
Eligible for qualifying offer

The baseball world is still reeling from this week’s news that Ohtani has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament for the second time in his career. He won’t pitch again this season, and surgery — be it Tommy John or an internal brace — is firmly on the table. For now, he’ll continue to serve as the Angels’ DH as he and the team receive outside opinions on his damaged ligament.

There’s no way around the fact that Ohtani’s injury represents a massive blow to his earning power — but perhaps not to the extent that many fans would think. Ohtani is still the best player on the planet, doing things that we simply haven’t seen in our lifetimes — arguably ever before. The 29-year-old’s .304/.409/.659 batting line puts him 80% ahead of the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, and prior to his injury, he’d run up 132 innings of 3.14 ERA ball.

Ohtani ranks seventh in the Majors in batting average, second in on-base percentage, first in slugging percentage (by more than 60 points), tenth in ERA and third in strikeout percentage (as a pitcher). We’ve grown almost accustomed to this level of excellence, but the manner in which he permeates both the offensive and pitching leaderboards in Major League Baseball is nothing short of prodigious.

Certainly, it’s an open question as to whether Ohtani will pitch at all next year. By the time he’s reached free agency, we’ll likely know the answer to that question. Depending on whether he needs surgery — and, if so, which surgery he requires — it’s possible he’ll miss the beginning of the 2024 season. Bryce Harper had offseason Tommy John surgery this past year and returned to the Phillies on May 2. Ohtani himself had his first Tommy John surgery in October 2018 and was back on the field as a designated hitter on May 7 the following year.

Even if Ohtani is ruled out from pitching next year, any team signing him would be paying for one of the game’s best hitters — and for a potential return to the mound in 2025. It’s fair to wonder just how long Ohtani can continue pitching and hitting simultaneously and do so at elite levels, but he’s spent the past three years proving those who doubted his preternatural talents wrong. The ultra-competitive Ohtani will surely try to do so again; there’s little reason to think he’d move on from pitching due to a second surgery. What shape that eventually takes — limiting him to five innings most starts, affording him extra rest throughout the season, moving him to the bullpen, etc. — will likely depend on the team with which he eventually signs.

Regardless of Ohtani’s future on the mound, he’ll probably still set the record for largest free agent contract ever. That may sound outlandish to some at first glance, but consider the fact that Ohtani will reach the market two years younger than Aaron Judge was when he scored a $360MM guarantee. Judge landed that record sum as a 31-year-old who ostensibly only had three competitive bidders: the incumbent Yankees, his hometown Giants, and the late-bidding Padres. Ohtani will draw interest from a larger number of teams. And, as marketable as Judge is, Ohtani is even more so. The additional revenues he’d generate from his global fan base can’t be overlooked.

Moreover, Ohtani only seems to be getting better at the plate. After striking out at 28.1% clip through his first four seasons, he dropped that number to 24.2% last year. The lowered strikeout rate also came with a dip in walk rate (down to 10.8%), but this year he’s maintained that improved strikeout rate while bumping his walk rate back to 14.2%. Ohtani is also just two home runs shy of his career-high and looks like a lock to reach 50 home runs. His .360 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is a career-high. Ohtani’s 94.9 mph average exit velocity trails only Judge, and his 118.3 mph maximum exit velo this season trails only Matt Olson. No player has hit a ball further than Ohtani’s MLB-best 493 feet, per Statcast.

Ohtani’s second UCL tear could shorten his 2024 season and might necessitate extra care for his arm when he returns to the mound — be that late in the 2024 season or early in the 2025 campaign. But he’s probably going to pitch again — he’ll certainly try to — and even if he doesn’t, he’s hitting the market as one of baseball’s premier offensive players in advance of his age-29 season. Plus, if Ohtani were to ever give up pitching, he wouldn’t be “just” a designated hitter, as many detractors have suggested. Ohtani is no stranger to the outfield, having played there during his NPB days. Statcast still credits him with 65th percentile sprint speed, and there’s no questioning his raw athleticism and arm strength. There’s little reason to think he couldn’t at least be a serviceable corner outfielder.

Age and elite offensive performance on their own still ought to push Ohtani past Judge this winter. The only question will be how far beyond Judge he can ultimately club. Securing the first $400MM free agent contract in history feels attainable even with the questions surrounding his arm. Time will tell if $500MM+ remains on the table.

2. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, Cubs
Eligible for qualifying offer

Bellinger jumps from unranked on our last list to the No. 2 spot in a matter of just two months. At the time of our June list, he’d just been reinstated from the injured list and was mired in what turned out to be a fleeting slump. We listed Bellinger as an honorable mention and considered him for a spot near the bottom of the list, but felt he needed to improve his stock a bit. He’s done that — and then some.

Not many one-year, make-good deals have gone as well as Bellinger’s remarkable bounceback season. Non-tendered by the Dodgers after shoulder surgery left him a shell of his former Rookie of the Year and MVP self from 2021-22, Bellinger now looks to be back in a big way. The 2019 Most Valuable Player is batting .320/.368/.552 with 20 home runs, 21 doubles, a triple and 17 steals in 20 tries. The most alarming element of his downturn in 2021-22 was a strikeout rate that ballooned to 27.1%, but Bellinger is now punching out at a career-low 15.5% rate.

Bellinger’s rebound isn’t without red flags, as I noted last week when profiling his season at greater length. He missed more than a month with a knee injury, and in more under-the-radar fashion, the quality of his contact is just nowhere near as good as it was at his peak. Bellinger is averaging 87.2 mph off the bat — four miles per hour slower than during his MVP season. A hefty 45.6% of his batted balls left the bat at 95 mph+ in 2019; he’s at 30.8% in 2023. He’ll also receive and reject a qualifying offer, though for free agents of this caliber, that’s rarely a significant deterrent.

The Cubs have played Bellinger both at first base and in center field this season, and he’ll draw interest from teams with visions of playing him at first base and across all three outfield spots. He drew plus ratings from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in his return to first base, and he’s been credited with +4 OAA in center field this year. Teams will see Bellinger as a versatile and above-average defender at multiple spots on the field.

The other factors to consider with Bellinger are age and market scarcity. He won’t turn 29 until July 13 of next season, meaning next year will technically be considered his age-28 season. (July 1 is the typical cutoff for such designations.) He’s considerably younger than the standard free agent, and he happens to hit the market in a year where there’s not only a lack of quality outfielders/first baseman — but a lack of quality bats overall.

Bellinger is at least two years younger than each of Kris Bryant ($182MM), Brandon Nimmo ($162MM) and George Springer ($150MM) were when they hit free agency. He’s having a better offensive platform year than any of that group at the plate. Bellinger and Scott Boras will likely be seeking $200MM+ in free agency this time around, and there’s a real chance he’ll get it.

3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes**
Ineligible for qualifying offer

At the time of our June list, Yamamoto was sitting on a 1.98 ERA in 68 1/3 frames, positioning him to potentially finish the season with his fourth sub-2.00 ERA in the past five years. Since that time, he’s allowed five total runs in 51 2/3 frames. His 0.87 ERA in that stretch has dropped his season mark to 1.50 over the life of 120 innings. He’s averaging seven innings per start in NPB this year.

If age was worth mentioning with regard to Bellinger, it’s worth focusing on in near-singular fashion with Yamamoto, who turned 25 just last week. Yamamoto is one of the most accomplished pitchers in NPB — widely regarded as the second-best league in the world — despite the fact that he’s around the same age as some of the yet-to-debut names that populate top prospect lists here in North America. He went straight from the NPB draft into the Buffaloes’ rotation, and while his 5.32 ERA as a rookie wasn’t exactly captivating, Yamamoto followed with a 2.10 ERA in 2019 and has been established as an ace-caliber pitcher ever since.

Most MLB free agents hit the market between 29 and 31 years of age. There are occasional 28-year-old free agents, and even more rarely we’ll see a 27-year-old or even 26-year-old, if said player reached the big leagues as some kind of youthful phenom. Yamamoto will be signing a contract beginning with his age-25 season — a virtually unprecedented age for a top-of-the-rotation arm to reach the market. A six-year deal for him would run through only his age-30 season — the same age at which many MLB free agents are just getting to market. It’s always hard to predict how the market might react to star players coming over from NPB or the Korea Baseball Organization, but Yamamoto’s blend of age and performance is basically unprecedented. It’s easy to envision him receiving offers of eight years — possibly even more — based on his youth. Presumably, Yamamoto’s camp could look to work some opt-out opportunities into any deal as well.

Yamamoto isn’t a true free agent; he’ll need to be posted by the Buffaloes, though it’s widely expected they’ll do just that. Any team that signs Yamamoto would owe his former club a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter (including options, incentives, awards bonuses, etc.). On a $200MM deal, for instance, the signing team would owe an additional $31.875MM release fee.

Predicting contracts for foreign stars is always something of a dice roll — far more than standard MLB free agents, where precedent is more abundant. Yamamoto lacks any true comparables in terms of market context seasons, but the demand for him should be fierce.

4. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers
Eligible for qualifying offer

To call the 2023 season an “uneven” one for Urias would be a bit of an understatement. The southpaw got out to a strong start through his first four turns on the mound, stumbled badly over his next five appearances, and hit the injured list with a hamstring strain. Urias was set to return after just a few weeks but suffered a setback and wound up missing nearly two months with the injury. Upon his return, he was rocked for five runs in three innings, sending his ERA ballooning to 4.94. He was dominant for his next two turns (one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio) … then blown up for eight runs in Baltimore.

The pendulum swung back in the other direction following that outing, and Urias is still on the upswing. In his past five starts, he’s posted a 2.03 ERA. Overall, Urias has a 4.15 ERA on the season and a 3.88 ERA since returning from the injured list. Much of the damage done against him this season has been confined to five brutal outings.

Urias isn’t a power arm. He’s averaging 92.9 mph on his fastball this season — a career-low, but barely down from the 93.1 mph he averaged in 2022 when he posted a 2.16 ERA in 175 frames. He’s never been a huge strikeout pitcher, and this year’s 24.1% rate is in line with his previous levels: solidly above average, but far from elite. However, he’s always boasted exceptional command, and his 4.9% walk rate in 2023 is the best of his career. His walk rate ranks 10th among the 93 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 innings this season and is only 0.1% behind the three pitchers ahead of him on the list (Joe Ryan, Miles Mikolas, Zack Wheeler).

Urias is a tough free agent to peg. From 2018-22, he logged a brilliant 2.61 ERA in 499 1/3 innings, but due largely to a .252 BABIP and 79.8% strand rate, fielding-independent metrics were far less bullish (3.42 FIP, 3.80 SIERA). And, because of early-career shoulder surgery, Urias’ workload was limited aggressively until the 2021 season. He’s only made 30 starts in a season twice (2021 and 2022), and he won’t reach that level in 2023. Urias was also arrested in May 2019 after video reportedly showed him shoving a female companion to the ground. Major League Baseball subsequently suspended him for 20 games under the joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Though it was several years ago, that still figures to weigh into the evaluation process for many teams.

The biggest factor Urias will have on his side in free agency will be age. Because he debuted as a 19-year-old, he’s reaching the open market at just 27 years of age. He won’t turn 28 until next August. Because of that youth, Urias could be in line for a lengthier contract than the standard pitcher, which is why he and Yamamoto stand as the top non-Ohtani pitchers on this ranking. Even an eight-year deal would only run through the left-hander’s age-34 season.

5. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays
Eligible for qualifying offer

Chapman’s first month of the 2023 season was something to behold. When I wrote about his brilliant start to the season in early May, the two-time Platinum Glove winner was raking at a .338/.425/.579 clip. He’d “only” homered five times in six weeks but was already up to 17 doubles. As noted at the time, he’d struck out at a considerably lower rate than past seasons in April but had begun to swing and miss more in May. “If Chapman can avoid allowing his recent uptick in whiffs to snowball, then a return to peak levels or even the establishment of a new peak output is firmly in play,” I wrote at the time.

Unfortunately — the whiffs indeed snowballed. Chapman fanned at just a 22.8% clip through the end of April, but he’s gone down on strikes in 29.5% of his plate appearances since that time. Since that look at Chapman’s sensational start to the season … he’s batted .212/.302/.373 (88 wRC+).

On the whole, Chapman’s season has still been productive. His .250/.339/.435 slash is 15% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. He’s ripped 15 home runs, 35 doubles and a triple in 507 plate appearances and drawn walks at a very strong 11% clip. More encouraging is the fact that when Chapman makes contact, he’s absolutely scorching the ball. This year’s 93.7 mph average exit velocity is in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. Only Aaron Judge and Matt Olson have put a higher percentage of their batted balls in play at 95 mph or more than Chapman’s outrageous 57.2%.

That batted-ball profile will undoubtedly intrigue many teams. Chapman will be viewed as something of an “upside” play with the bat, which is a strange way to characterize someone who we’re ranking fifth in earning power among this year’s free agents. That said, Chapman’s power, ability to draw walks and elite defense give him a high floor, and the elite level of his contact and his prior track record suggest something closer to an MVP-level ceiling. Defensive Runs Saved credits Chapman at +11 this year, while Outs Above Average is at +4. He’s never ranked as a negative in either category.

Both Trevor Story (six years, $140MM) and Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM) secured deals well north of $100MM due in large part to their strong gloves and offensive ceilings. Kris Bryant landed $182MM coming off a comparable (albeit better) offensive year — despite lacking anything close to Chapman’s defensive value. Story and Swanson got those contracts despite having turned down qualifying offers. Chapman will turn down a QO as well, and even with the way his bat has sputtered since the first month of the season, he’ll still have a case to end up somewhere in this general range.

6. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Rangers
Ineligible for qualifying offer

Few pitchers have elevated their stock more than Montgomery in recent seasons. The 30-year-old southpaw — 31 in December — missed most of the 2018-19 seasons due to Tommy John surgery and posted a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts during the shortened 2020 campaign. Montgomery’s strikeout, walk and grounder rates all remained sharp during that ugly season, though, creating some optimism that he could yet bounce back.

He’s done more than bounce back in the three years since. Montgomery reestablished himself as a viable big league starter in 2021, but he’s steadily elevated himself to No. 2-3 starter status — and he only seems to be getting better. Dating back to 2021, Montgomery has piled up 482 2/3 innings and recorded an impressive 3.49 ERA with a 22.8% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 45.5% grounder rate and just 1.01 HR/9. He spent two weeks on the Covid-related injured list in 2021 but has otherwise avoided the IL entirely since returning from Tommy John surgery.

The 2023 season, in particular, is shaping up to be the best of Montgomery’s career. He’s posted a minuscule 1.73 ERA in four starts since being traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers, dropping his season-long mark to a career-best 3.12. Montgomery’s 93.6 mph average fastball is the best of his career. He’s striking hitters out at only a league-average level but also limiting walks at a considerably better-than-average rate and inducing grounders at an above-average clip.

Montgomery may not stand out in any one way, but he boasts average or better skills across the board and has shaken off that early ligament replacement surgery to establish himself as a durable mid-rotation starter. His results, peripherals and general durability are all superior to those of Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM) last offseason. Because he was traded midseason, he can’t receive a qualifying offer.

Many will be tempted to lump Montgomery into the Walker/Taillon bucket, but he’s been the best pitcher of that trio and is heading into free agency on a high note. Taillon and Walker feel like more of a floor than anything else for Montgomery, who ought to be able to command a fifth guaranteed year. With a strong and healthy finish to the season, he could secure a nine-figure deal.

7. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies
Eligible for qualifying offer

Nola, who turned 30 this summer, has been a standard of durability for the past six years. He hasn’t gone on the injured list with a non-virus issue since 2017. No pitcher has started more games or logged more innings since the start of 2018. For the bulk of that time, he has paired that league-best durability with at least high-end #2 starter results.

The right-hander has six sub-4.00 ERA seasons under his belt, including a 3.25 mark over 205 innings a season ago. From a run prevention perspective, he’s struggling through a relative down year in 2023. Nola has allowed 4.49 earned runs per nine through 26 appearances. The longball has been the big culprit, as he has already surrendered a personal-high 29 homers in 160 1/3 innings (1.63 HR/9).

Nola has lost a few punchouts as well, although he’s still missing bats at an above-average rate. His 25.2% strikeout percentage is his lowest rate in six years but above the 22% league mark for starters. While his whiffs were way down early in the season, he has a characteristic 28.2% strikeout rate going back to the start of June. The homers have become even more of an issue as the summer has drawn on, but Nola’s strikeout and walk profile of the past three months has resembled that of his entire career.

A pitcher’s home run rate can vary season-to-season. Nola’s ground-ball percentages have nosedived over the past couple years, though. This looks as if it’ll be his second campaigns in the last three years with a middling ERA, as he posted a 4.63 mark in 2021. Nola’s ERA has been above estimators like FIP and SIERA for three years running. Will teams attribute that primarily to poor luck and the lackluster defenses the Phils have turn out behind him, or to something in Nola’s repertoire that makes him more hittable than his strikeout and walk profile would suggest?

The Phils and Nola had some extension conversations during the spring but didn’t appear to get close to a deal. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer. A five or six year deal topping nine figures should still be attainable, but it’d be easier to project Nola approaching or beating the $162MM which Carlos Rodon received last winter were it not for the home run concerns.

8. Lucas Giolito, SP, Angels
Ineligible for qualifying offer

Aside from the unique cases of Ohtani and Yamamoto, Giolito was the top pitcher in our late-June rankings. The right-hander was sitting on a 3.41 ERA at the time but has allowed a 5.92 mark in nine starts since that point. That’s primarily a reflection of two absolute clunkers — an eight-run drubbing by the Mets on July 18 and nine runs at the hands of the Braves during his first start as an Angel on August 2.

Largely because of those outings, Giolito’s season ERA has jumped to 4.32. Home runs have been an issue, particularly since he landed in Anaheim, but the rest of his profile is generally solid. Giolito hasn’t maintained the form he flashed from 2019-20, when he struck out a third of opponents in consecutive seasons with a sub-3.50 ERA. He now looks the part of a solid #3 starter, fanning a quarter of opponents against an 8.2% walk rate while averaging just under six innings per start.

His velocity is right in line with last year’s mark. His 12.2% swinging strike rate — while down from its 2019-21 peak — is a bit better than average. While Giolito’s small sample ERA with the Angels sits at 6.67, his repertoire, whiffs and control are all in line with his early-season work in Chicago. It’s likely teams will consider his tough first month in Orange County a blip and more or less continue to view him as an above-average, durable starting pitcher.

Giolito turned 29 last month. He’s a year younger than Nola, Snell and Montgomery but markedly older than Urias and Yamamoto. Since he was traded midseason, clubs wouldn’t have to forfeit a draft choice to sign him (as they would for Snell, Nola and Urias). While the past month has been a disaster for the Angels, Giolito’s free agent stock shouldn’t be much different than it was six weeks ago. Given his age, a six-year deal still seems plausible.

9. Blake Snell, SP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer

Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young winner, has become the veritable embodiment of the “mercurial” and “volatile” adjectives that are often used to describe pitchers. The 30-year-old looked lost early in the season, logging a 5.40 ERA and 13.4% walk rate in his first nine starts. Since then, he’s been perhaps the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Over his past 17 starts, Snell has pitched 97 innings with a 1.48 ERA.

One might be tempted to assume that Snell has corrected the command troubles that dragged him down early on — but that’s not the case. Snell has continued walking more than 13% of his opponents during this stretch, with the primary difference being a massive spike in strikeouts (from 23.8% up to 34.8%) and grounders (37% to 49.7%). Snell has scaled back the usage of his heater in that time, deferring to more changeups and curveballs. The formula has worked beautifully. Snell ranks seventh in the Majors in Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR (3.7) and trails only Arizona’s Zac Gallen with 4.8 RA9-WAR.

Ace-level results from Snell aren’t exactly anything new. Again, he’s a former Cy Young winner. However, Snell has struggled to stay healthy, and his penchant for deep counts and walking batters has frequently led to early exits from games. Snell has averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start in his big league career. That’s not exactly a reflection of the Rays’ affinity for quick hooks on their starting pitchers either; Snell’s 5.17 innings per start since his trade to the Padres is nearly identical to his 5.15 innings per start in Tampa Bay. Even during this year’s dominant effort, he’s averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per outing.

In terms of his per-inning performance and his overall raw stuff, Snell is one of the most appealing pitchers in baseball. But he’s also lacked both consistency and efficiency throughout his career, and he’s been on the injured list due to an adductor strain (twice), a fractured toe, loose bodies in his elbow and gastrointeritis since winning that 2018 Cy Young Award. This year’s 142 innings are already the second-highest total of his career. Snell will also have to contend with a qualifying offer, which he’ll surely reject in search of a longer-term deal.

Snell undoubtedly has his flaws, but over the past calendar year he’s made 33 starts and posted a 2.51 ERA with a 31.8% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate, 42.8% grounder rate and just 0.84 homers per nine innings. He’s pitched 183 innings in that time — just shy of 5 2/3 frames per outing. There’s plenty of reason for caution, but Snell at his best is a legitimate Game 1 starter in a postseason series. Volatility notwithstanding, he could land a nine-figure deal of five or more years in length.

10. Josh Hader, RP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer

While some of the names on this list have struggled since the June edition of our Power Rankings, Hader has been the opposite. He’s tossed 16 shutout innings since that day, allowing just six hits and punching out 44.6% of his opponents. The 29-year-old now boasts a career-low 0.81 ERA in 44 2/3 innings on the season. He’s carrying a 39.9% strikeout rate, and while his 13.5% walk rate remains high, that’s easier to get away with when two out of every five hitters that come to the plate fall to a strikeout.

There was some concern surrounding Hader as he slumped in the weeks preceding and immediately following last year’s trade to the Padres. He righted the ship following a six-run meltdown in late August, however. Since shaking off that disastrous outing, Hader has pitched 61 1/3 innings of 0.74 ERA ball with a 39.7% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s still primarily a fly-ball pitcher, but Hader’s 36.3% ground-ball rate is a pretty big jump from the 27.4% mark he posted from 2018-22. He’s using the sinker he implemented in 2022 more than ever this year, and while his 2.6% homer-to-flyball rate is bound to regress, this year’s pristine 0.20 HR/9 is also at least partially influenced by that uptick in grounders.

Hader will receive and reject a qualifying offer. That’s a risk for most relievers, but it’s a slam dunk for Hader, who could become the highest-paid relief pitcher ever within the next few months. He’ll be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the reliever record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. Barring a catastrophic collapse or a disastrously timed injury, Hader will take aim at making Diaz’s record and have a good chance at making it short-lived.

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader (OF), Jeimer Candelario (3B), Sonny Gray (SP), Teoscar Hernandez (OF/DH), Shota Imanaga (SP)**, Michael Lorenzen (SP), Yuki Matsui (RP)**,  Eduardo Rodriguez (SP)*, Jorge Soler (DH/OF)*, Marcus Stroman (SP)*

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2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings MLBTR Originals Newsstand

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Royals’ Jake Brentz Likely Out For Season Following Lat Strain

By Anthony Franco | August 25, 2023 at 10:10pm CDT

The Royals have been without reliever Jake Brentz for the entire season. The southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery last July and has been on the 60-day injured list since Opening Day. Brentz started a minor league rehab assignment last week, but the club announced this afternoon they were pulling him off that stint.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that Brentz recently sustained a lat strain (Twitter link). He’s expected to miss the rest of the year. It’ll go down as a complete lost season, as he threw all of 2 2/3 minor league innings.

Brentz, 29 next month, pitched 5 1/3 frames before last season’s elbow injury. He’d had a decent rookie campaign two years ago, tossing 64 innings of 3.66 ERA ball. He fanned an above-average 27.3% of batters faced while averaging 97 MPH on his heater. Brentz’s control was wobbly — he walked over 13% of opponents — but he boasted one of the better power arsenals among left-handed relievers.

The Royals non-tendered him last offseason but circled back in Spring Training on a guaranteed two-year contract. Kansas City is paying him $850K this season and will owe him $1.05MM next year. Locking in a salary a few hundred thousand dollars north of the league minimum could give him a leg up on a roster spot, but Brentz won’t have any 2023 work to carry into the offseason. Kansas City will have to reinstate him back onto the 40-man roster once the offseason begins.

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Kansas City Royals Jake Brentz

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