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Cubs Outright Edwin Rios

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The Cubs have outrighted infielder Edwin Rios, according to Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. There had been no previous indication that Rios had been designated for assignment. Chicago’s 40-man roster drops to 39 as a result of the move. Rios has the requisite service time to reject an outright assignment, but would forfeit the remainder of his $1MM salary in doing so.

A sixth-round pick by the Dodgers in the 2015 draft, Rios made his big league debut with the club in 2019 and thrived in a bench role with LA, slashing a phenomenal .260/.338/.634 in 139 plate appearances across his first two seasons in the majors. The following two seasons, however, weren’t as fruitful. From 2021-22, Rios battled hamstring and shoulder injuries while slashing just .183/.263/.365 in 152 plate appearances. That combination of injuries and ineffectiveness led the Dodgers to non-tender Rios this past offseason.

Upon departing LA Rios joined the Cubs, who signed him to a $1MM major league deal in hopes of Rios providing lefty power off the bench for the club. Things didn’t go according to plan for Rios or Chicago, however, as the now 29-year-old slugger slashed just .071/.235/.214 with a massive 47.1% strikeout rate in 34 trips to the plate. That performance was enough for the Cubs to demote Rios to Triple-A for most of the 2023 campaign despite the small sample size.

Now, more than a month removed from Rios’s last big league appearance, he’s off the 40-man roster entirely. Assuming he opts to accept his outright assignment in order to retain the remainder of his salary, Rios figures to serve as a depth bench option for the Cubs’ infield, though he’s blocked by the likes of Matt Mervis and Miles Mastrobuoni, both of whom are already on the 40-man roster.

Cubs Take Cody Bellinger Off Trade Market

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The Cubs entered the month of July widely expected to be sellers this trade season, but the club has turned their season around since the All Star break. Chicago is currently riding an eight-game win streak and have won ten of their last eleven games. The recent hot streak has propelled them to a 53-51 record, 3.5 games out of the NL Central and just three games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Per Fangraphs, the club’s playoff odds have shot from just 6% on July 17 all the way up to 31.7% today.

Given this rapid turn of the club’s fortunes, the club has decided not to move outfielder Cody Bellinger ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs’ decision takes the best available rental bat off the market, furthering limiting options for clubs looking to upgrade their offense amid a thin market for position players. Per Rogers, the Cubs figure to shift their focus to buying in the coming days, with bullpen help as a particular area of focus for the club.

Bellinger has been everything the Cubs could have reasonably hoped for in signing him to a one-year deal this past offseason. The 27-year-old former MVP has bounced back in a huge way from his injury-marred seasons of the past two years, posting a fantastic .315/.368/.540 slash line in 310 plate appearances for Chicago this season while playing quality defense both in center field and at first base. He’s striking out just 16.1% of the time, a career-best mark, and his ISO of .225, while still a far cry from the .274 figure of his first four seasons, is nonetheless a major improvement over the .162 figure he posted during his last two seasons in LA.

While Bellinger’s performance hasn’t been entirely supported by more advanced metrics this season, as evidenced by his .381 wOBA greatly outstripping his .328 xwOBA, even his underlying performance has been that of a clearly above-average regular. In retaining their star outfielder, the club will have the option to extend him a Qualifying Offer following the 2023 campaign, an option they appear all but certain to take, barring a major injury change the trajectory of Bellinger’s free agency. Should the Cubs extend him a QO, they’ll receive draft pick compensation in the event that he signs elsewhere this offseason, as they did with catcher Willson Contreras this past offseason.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined the best possible matches in a Bellinger trade earlier this month, highlighting the Astros, Giants, and Yankees as the best fits in the process. Those clubs and others who planned to pursue Bellinger’s services will now have to look elsewhere to upgrade their outfield. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha of the Mets, Lane Thomas of the Nationals, and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals are among the top options available. That being said, only Pham is a rental option among that group, with the rest presumably coming at a higher acquisition cost thanks to their additional years of control.

With Bellinger now off the market, it remains to be seen whether the Cubs will adopt a similar course of action regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman. The situation regarding the veteran right-hander has gotten plenty of attention in recent weeks given Stroman’s public desire for a long-term extension in Chicago and the Cubs’ disinclination to discuss such an arrangement.

While it’s possible the Cubs’ stance on extending Stroman has changed following the club’s recent hot stretch, it’s also possible that Stroman’s recent performance could present a new obstacle in any negotiations. While the righty sports a solid 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 22 starts this season, Stroman’s past six starts have seen those figures balloon up from 2.28 and 3.36, respectively, due to the 32-year-old hurler allowing a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in 27 innings of work since his start on June 25 in London.

That the Cubs are turning their attention to the bullpen is hardly a surprise. The club has gotten excellent production out of Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks at the front of their rotation, while Drew Smyly has proven to be a serviceable back-end starter over the past two seasons. Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily this season, with a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts, but he’s in just the first year of a four-year, $68MM contract and has pitched to a 1.78 ERA over his past five starts, making it unlikely the club would spend prospect capital to remove the veteran hurler from their rotation.

That leaves the bullpen as a much clearer place to upgrade, as the Cubs sport a middle-of-the-pack 4.05 bullpen ERA entering play today. Right-handers Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. have all put up solid seasons, with Alzolay in particular impressing as the club’s closer. Still, it’s easy to see how the club could benefit from a steady veteran option such as Paul Sewald of the Mariners or Scott Barlow of the Royals. Those two arms in particular come with an additional year of team control, which could be particularly valuable to a team at the beginning of a new competitive window like Chicago.

While Rogers doesn’t indicate the Cubs are expected to add at the position, first base has been something of a disaster for the Cubs this season. Bellinger’s positional flexibility and a surprisingly solid season from fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman have helped to patch up the issue, but significant struggles from youngster Matt Mervis and veteran Trey Mancini have left the club with a 97 wRC+ at the position even after factoring in Bellinger’s contributions. C.J. Cron of the Rockies, Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals and Adam Duvall of the Red Sox are trade candidates who the Cubs could turn to at the position should they pursue an upgrade.

Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

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The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Rangers Interested In Further Pitching Additions

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Even after acquiring future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer in a blockbuster deal with the Mets last night, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand indicates the Rangers are not done adding to their pitching staff. Texas is reportedly looking to add a reliever or two or their relief corps and are also interested in adding to the bottom of the rotation.

An additional starting option would certainly make sense for Texas. While Nathan Eovaldi (2.69 ERA in 19 starts) and Scherzer create a strong top 2 at the front of the rotation, southpaws Martin Perez and Andrew Heaney have combined for a concerning 4.81 ERA in 40 starts this season. Righties Dane Dunning and Jon Gray both have stronger numbers for the season, Gray has posted a 6.49 ERA in his past seven starts while Dunning’s best work this season has come as a member of the bullpen.

While Feinsand doesn’t connect specific names to the Rangers, Justin McWilliams of the Boston Globe notes that the club has been scouting Red Sox left-hander James Paxton. Paxton, 34, came into the season with a 6.65 ERA in 21 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season. He dealt with back and forearm issues towards the end of his tenure with the Yankees before requiring Tommy John surgery in 2021. Separate injuries, including a late-season hamstring strain, slowed his rehab process and prevented him from returning to the mound with Boston in 2022.

Since making a healthy return to the mound in the middle of May this season, however, Paxton has looked like a quality, playoff-caliber starter. In 70 innings of work across 13 starts this season, Paxton has posted a 3.34 ERA that’s 40% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a 3.61 FIP. His 28.4% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate are both a touch better than his career norms and while his .269 BABIP is noticeably lower than his career .302 figure, Paxton would be a significant upgrade to Texas’s rotation, or that of virtually any contender.

Of course, it’s an open question as to whether or not the Red Sox would actually move Paxton ahead of Tuesday’s deadline. After all, Boston sports a solid 56-48 record. While that puts them in fourth place in the AL East and seven games back of the division lead, they’re just 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot even with the likes of Trevor Story, Chris Sale, and Tanner Houck on the injured list.

While the Red Sox have already made one “sell-side” trade so far this July, last week’s deal that sent utilityman Enrique Hernandez to the Dodgers doesn’t seem particularly indicative of the club’s future plans. After all, the trade came in the midst of a brutal season on Hernandez’s part and at a time when the Red Sox are flush deep with middle infield options: Yu Chang, Christian Arroyo, and Pablo Reyes are all on the roster with Justin Turner also chipping in at second base and Story nearing a return to action.

Should Paxton wind up unavailable, there’s still plenty of other options for the Rangers to consider in looking to upgrade their pitching staff. Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, and Jack Flaherty are among the starters who seem likely to move, to say nothing of the possibility that the Padres or Cubs opt to sell and dangle an arm like Blake Snell or Marcus Stroman. As for relief options, right-handers Jordan Hicks, Scott Barlow, Chris Stratton, and Paul Sewald all appear in the top 15 of MLBTR’s most recent Top 50 Trade Candidates list. So too does relief ace Josh Hader, though his availability is contingent on San Diego opting to sell just as Snell’s is.

Rangers Acquire Max Scherzer From Mets

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The Rangers and Mets have agreed to a trade that will see the star right-hander Max Scherzer head to Texas, with prospect Luisangel Acuña heading the other way. The Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM of the remaining money owed to Scherzer, who will waive his no-trade clause. He will also trigger his player option for 2024, forgoing his opt-out opportunity.

The Mets signed Scherzer to a three-year, $130MM deal going into the 2022 season, as part of a high-spending strategy aimed at contention. The first year generally went well, as the Mets won 101 games with Scherzer contributing 23 starts of 2.29 ERA ball. This year hasn’t been nearly as successful, however, as the Mets have slumped to 49-54 and 6.5 games out of a playoff spot. It seems they have accepted the fact that they have to do some selling, having already flipped David Robertson to the Marlins.

That’s also come with diminished results from Scherzer, who has posted an ERA of 4.01 this year, working around a 10-game sticky stuff suspension earlier in the season. His strikeouts have dipped this season, with his 27.3% rate representing his lowest since 2011.

With the Mets struggling, it’s led to speculation about how they would react. Impending free agents like Robertson, Tommy Pham and others seemed like natural trade candidates, but Scherzer’s situation was more complicated. As mentioned, he had a full no-trade clause and would need to agree to any deal. It was reported in June that he was willing to waive that clause under certain circumstances, though without concrete information about what it would take for him to do so.

Further complicating matters was Scherzer’s ability to opt out of the final year of his deal, leaving $43.33MM on the table. Some sources describe this as a player option, though the situation is the same either way, with Scherzer getting to decide whether to become a free agent or not. He spoke about his situation earlier this week, saying that he’s “not going to be a free agent” and “can see a path to contend next year” with the Mets. Though he also said he would speak with the front office about the club’s direction.

He’s still owed just under $15MM for the remainder of this season, on top of the $43.33MM for next year, a total just north of $58MM. Whatever return the Rangers were willing to send to the Mets might have taken a different shape if they were to view Scherzer as a rental or a pickup for a year and a half with a massive salary. They reportedly wanted Scherzer to lock in that 2024 season, which he has now apparently done.

Since the Mets are paying down all but $22.5MM, that means they’re eating more than $35MM in this deal. The Mets have shown a tendency to eat money in trades in order to maximize returns, such as sending Eduardo Escobar to the Angels and James McCann to the Orioles, and have done so here.

The Rangers have been clearly looking for starting pitching recently, having been connected to Lance Lynn, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Verlander and Scherzer. They have had a couple of rotation setbacks this year, most notably the loss of Jacob deGrom. He was signed to a five-year, $185MM guarantee in the offseason but required Tommy John surgery in June, putting him out for the remainder of this year and some of 2024 as well. They also lost Jake Odorizzi to a season-ending shoulder surgery.

The club has operated for most of the season with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney, with Dane Dunning stepping in for deGrom. The results from that group have been varied, with Eovaldi’s 2.69 ERA the lowest and Pérez the highest at 4.91. Dunning is at 3.28 but with a 15.5% strikeout rate that’s well below league average. Since his .269 batting average on balls in play and 77.5% strand rate are on the lucky side, his 4.26 FIP and 4.88 SIERA suggest he’s skirted around some runs. He’s the only member of the rotation with options and could perhaps wind up in the minors as depth, though he’s also worked out of the bullpen before. Additionally, Eovaldi is dealing with some elbow soreness, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. He’s not going on the IL yet but his scheduled start is being pushed back. Although Scherzer’s not having his best season, he would still be an upgrade for that group. By sticking around for 2024, he will also help them cover for Pérez becoming a free agent, with deGrom potentially returning later in the year.

The Rangers are currently 60-44 and hold a two-game lead over the Astros in the American League West, with the third-place Angels aggressively pursuing upgrades as well. The Rangers haven’t made the postseason since 2016, which was also the last time they finished above .500. They’ve shown a willingness to be very aggressive in recent years as they look to get out of that spiral, giving out huge deals to players like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, as well as the aforementioned starting pitchers. They’ve already bolstered their bullpen by acquiring Aroldis Chapman and now have made a massive move for their rotation.

It was reported this week that the club would be open to surpassing the $233MM base threshold of the luxury tax for Verlander, though it remains to be seen if they will do the same for Scherzer. Roster Resource currently lists their CBT figure at $224MM, or $9MM below the line. Assuming the $22.5MM they are paying Scherzer is evenly distributed between now and the end of next year, they’ll be adding just under $6MM to that. That will leave them shy of the line for now but further moves could tip the scales.

In order to obtain Scherzer’s services, the club has parted with Acuña. The 21-year-old shortstop is the younger brother of Atlanta’s superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Signed out of Venezuela in 2018, he has climbed through the minor league ranks to reach Double-A. In 84 games at that level this year, he’s hitting .315/.377/.453 for a wRC+ of 121 while stealing 42 bases. Baseball America currently lists him at the #87 prospect in the league while FanGraphs has him at #56. BA suspects he’ll have to move to second base eventually but that he could be a solid regular there.

As for the Mets, this could perhaps give some hint as to how far they are willing to go in trading from this year’s roster in order to acquire help for future seasons. They’ve already traded Robertson and could shop other impending free agents like Pham and Carlos Carrasco. Mark Canha and Brooks Raley could also make sense, though they are pure rentals since the club has options for 2024. Omar Narváez and Adam Ottavino have player options for 2024. José Quintana’s contract runs through 2024 and he has received some trade interest.

The bigger fish, though, is Verlander. He just signed a two-year deal in the offseason that pays him $43.33MM per year, matching Scherzer’s salary, with a conditional $35MM option for 2025 as well. Like Scherzer, he also has a full no-trade clause and said just a few days ago that the club hadn’t yet approached him about waiving it. But it was later reported that the club would only approach the players about their clauses after finding workable trade packages, which seems to have been the case in this Scherzer deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Michael Schwab of Juice Box Journal first reported that the Rangers had a deal in place for Scherzer, contingent on him waiving his no-trade clause. Andy Martino of Steve Gelbs of SNY relayed that Scherzer would waive his clause, but that the financial components of the deal weren’t complete. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported on Acuña’s inclusion in the deal, as well as the fact that the Rangers wanted him to forego his opt-out at season’s end and that the deal was done. Martino relayed the financials while Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Scherzer will trigger in his 2024 option, with Heyman adding that he’ll receive some additional amenities for doing so.

Top 50 Trade Candidates: Deadline Edition

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Three weeks ago, MLBTR released a preliminary list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates. The top player on that list (Lucas Giolito) has already moved, as has #7 (David Robertson). Another from the top ten, Shane Bieber, suffered an injury that tanks the chances he’ll be dealt.

With a little more than 72 hours before the deadline, we’ll refresh that group. This isn’t a ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, which inherently involves subjectivity. A player in the top ten might have significantly less appeal than someone at the bottom of the list, but if they’re far more likely to be dealt for a return of note, they’ll be higher on this kind of ranking.

On to the list:

1. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals

With Giolito off the board, Montgomery is the best impending free agent starter who’s all but assured to move. The southpaw has a career-best 3.42 ERA over 21 starts with average or better strikeout (21.2%), walk (6.9%) and ground-ball (44.4%) marks. The Cardinals are openly turning their attention to 2024 and reportedly haven’t engaged Montgomery’s camp in any extension talks. The Dodgers, Rangers and Rays are among the teams that have been tied to his market, but virtually any contender with a desire to bolster the rotation would make sense. He’s making $10MM in his final arbitration season.

2. Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Nationals

Candelario has rebounded from a bad final season in Detroit to hit .254/.335/.478 with 16 homers in 410 plate appearances for Washington. The rebuilding Nationals have gotten more than they could’ve expected out of a $5MM free agent investment and are now positioned to cash Candelario in for young talent. He’s a switch-hitter with power and a solid plate approach. His third base defense has been up-and-down throughout his career, but he’s rating well there this season.

Playing designated hitter last night, Candelario hurt his left shoulder sliding into second base. The Nats were surely holding their breath, but Candelario said postgame he was unconcerned and would’ve been able to continue playing if his turn in the batting order came back around (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). Assuming that doesn’t prove anything more than a minor scare, he should be on the move. The Marlins and Angels have reportedly had some conversations with Washington.

3. Michael Lorenzen, SP, Tigers

Lorenzen has proven an adept free agent pickup for the Tigers. He’s probably a hair below Montgomery on most teams’ preference lists, but the overall profile is similar. The righty is a rental starter who carries a 3.58 ERA over 105 2/3 innings on a bad Detroit team. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a tick below average, but he’s only walking 6.5% of opponents. A first-time All-Star, Lorenzen is playing on an $8.5MM guarantee. The Orioles, Astros, Rays and Marlins have all reportedly checked in on the Tigers’ asking price.

4. Tommy Pham, OF, Mets

The Robertson trade made clear the Mets were at least open to moving short-term assets. Pham is the most appealing of their remaining rentals. The veteran outfielder has overcome a slow start to hit .265/.347/.460 with nine homers in 259 plate appearances. He has always mashed left-handed pitching (as one would expect for a righty hitter), but he’s producing against pitchers of either handedness in 2023. Pham’s $6MM salary is affordable and he’s one of the better impending free agent hitters available. The Dodgers and Phillies have expressed interest, but any contender with a corner outfield need and/or a desire to add some right-handed pop would fit.

5. Jack Flaherty, SP, Cardinals

6. Jordan Hicks, RP, Cardinals

Montgomery is the most valuable of the Cardinals’ rentals. He’s certainly not the only player St. Louis will move in the next three days, though. Flaherty is also headed to free agency with no sign of an extension. The righty has a 4.43 ERA with average strikeout and grounder rates over 109 2/3 innings. He’s issuing a few too many walks, but he’s a capable back-end starter who has shown more than that in the past. Flaherty acknowledged after Wednesday’s start that he’d be surprised if he makes another appearance as a Cardinal (link via Katie Woo of the Athletic). He’s making $5.4MM in his final arbitration season.

Hicks is one of the sport’s hardest-throwing relievers. He has pitched back into a high-leverage role with a 3.67 ERA and elite strikeout (31.2%) and grounder (58.3%) rates. While the strike-throwing is erratic, few pitchers can match this kind of stuff. Hicks and the Cardinals have talked extension in recent days, but those conversations have reportedly stalled out. Unless the sides rekindle negotiations late, he’ll be moved. Hicks is making just $1.8MM in his final arbitration season and has drawn reported interest from the Yankees, Rangers, Rays and Diamondbacks.

7. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Tigers

Perhaps no available starter is pitching as well as Rodriguez. The left-hander owns a 2.95 ERA in 88 1/3 innings. He’s striking out more than a quarter of opponents against a 6% walk rate. Rodriguez looks like the #2/3 caliber starter Detroit was targeting when they signed him to a five-year free agent deal two offseasons back.

As had been discussed ad nauseam, the complicating factor is the contract. Rodriguez is playing this season on a $14MM salary — strong value for a club given his production — but can opt out of the final three years and $49MM on the deal at season’s end. He’s likely going to do so, but a second-half injury could change that equation. Detroit has to prepare for the possibility he hits free agency and should be motivated to move him, while potential buyers have to weigh the downside associated with the opt-out clause. Rodriguez seems likely to move but it’s not as straightforward as dealing a true rental.

8. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals

Carlson probably has more trade value than any other Cardinal on this list. The switch-hitting outfielder looked like a potential franchise center fielder a year ago. Yet his offense has stalled out right around league average, as he carries a .235/.333/.352 showing over 228 plate appearances. Carlson has been a good player but not the impact bat St. Louis had been expecting.

St. Louis moved him to the bench when Tyler O’Neill returned from the injured list. With O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker in the outfield, Carlson looks like a change-of-scenery candidate. The Cards have explored offers, with the Yankees among the teams known to have interest. Still 24 and with three and a half seasons of remaining control, Carlson has a lot of appeal, even if it’s not at the same level as it would’ve been a few months ago.

9. Scott Barlow, RP, Royals

There have been surprisingly few ties to Barlow since Kansas City expressed an openness to offers two months ago. That’s presumably more a reflection of Royals’ brass playing things close to the vest than a lack of interest. The 30-year-old righty is an appealing trade target for contenders, even if his 5.50 ERA over 37 2/3 innings wouldn’t suggest as much.

Barlow allowed fewer than 2.50 earned runs per nine in 2021-22. He has seen a worrying spike in walks this year, contributing to the lesser results, but he’s missing bats on a solid 12.7% of his offerings with an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. Barlow isn’t as valuable a target as he was last summer, and a brutal July in which he’s allowed 10 runs in eight innings isn’t doing the Royals any favors. There’s still value here, though, particularly since he has an additional season of arbitration control and is playing on a fairly modest $5.3MM salary.

10. Mark Canha, OF, Mets

Canha is another short-term veteran for the Mets. The outfielder is making $10.5MM this season. His contract contains an $11.5MM club option for next year. Given his fine but unexceptional performance, it seems that’s trending towards a $2MM buyout. If the Mets aren’t planning to keep Canha around, there’s little reason not to pull the trigger this summer.

The right-handed hitter owns a .239/.338/.375 line with six homers through 296 trips to the plate. He’s drawing plenty of walks and striking out at a career-low 17.2% clip, though he’s not hitting for much power. While Canha isn’t an impact bat, he’s a generally above-average hitter who plays solid corner outfield defense and can handle center in a pinch.

11. Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals

12. Chris Stratton, RP, Cardinals

The next tier of Cardinal rentals, DeJong and Stratton also seem likely to change uniforms. The former has rebounded from a couple terrible offensive seasons to hit at a league average level (.238/.303/.421). He struggles to get on base against right-handed pitching but mashes lefties and plays plus defense at shortstop. DeJong’s $9MM salary is high but not untenable, especially given an overall down middle infield market. His contract contains a $12.5MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $2MM.

Stratton is a straightforward middle relief trade candidate. He’s making $2.8MM in his final arbitration season. The right-hander owns a 4.36 ERA with above-average strikeout (26.7%) and walk (7.7%) marks in 53 2/3 innings. It won’t be a franchise-altering return, but he’s the kind of solid bullpen arm contenders always need around the deadline.

13. Paul Sewald, RP, Mariners

Sewald is an impact late-game arm. The righty has a 2.93 ERA through 43 frames while striking out over 35% of batters faced. For the third consecutive season, he’s getting swinging strikes on more than 14% of his offerings. Playing on a $4.1MM salary with another year of arbitration control, he’d draw plenty of interest.

Seattle doesn’t have to deal him. They’re fringe contenders this year and certainly not kicking off a rebuild. Yet they have plenty of bullpen depth and could view Sewald as a somewhat expendable player if they can net a promising hitter with an extended team control window. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last night the M’s were open to offers.

14. Blake Snell, SP, Padres

15. Josh Hader, RP, Padres

Snell and Hader would have the potential to shoot up this list if we had time to reevaluate things on Tuesday. They’d be arguably the top two rentals if the Padres put them on the market. Snell has a 2.61 ERA with a 30.8% strikeout rate over 21 starts. Hader is operating at peak form, allowing fewer than one earned run per nine while punching out upwards of 38% of opponents.

The question, as it has been for months, is whether San Diego would move them. Four days ago, the answer seemed to be a clear no. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday morning the Friars had rebuffed inquiries from other clubs. Subsequent reports suggested they were a little more open to offers but still preferred to hold the duo and make a playoff push. San Diego is six games out of a Wild Card spot and could take this one right down to the wire.

16. Teoscar Hernández, OF, Mariners

Hernández wouldn’t have the same appeal as Sewald, but the calculus for Seattle is similar. They’re a season-high three games above .500 and 4.5 out of a Wild Card spot with four teams to jump. They’re unlikely to throw in the towel but could look to move short-term pieces, particularly if they can land immediate MLB talent with a longer control window.

It’s hard to consider Hernández’s tenure in Seattle as anything other than a disappointment so far. He’s hitting .236/.287/.410 over 432 trips to the plate. He’s playing better defense than expected but hasn’t come anywhere close to the middle-of-the-order offensive form of his final three seasons in Toronto. Whether Seattle would make him a qualifying offer when he hits free agency next winter now seems a question. Hernández is making $14MM for his final arbitration season.

17. Seth Lugo, SP, Padres

The Padres face a similar question on Lugo as they do with Snell and Hader. The righty has taken well to his return to permanent rotation work, posting a 3.62 ERA with a solid 23.4% strikeout percentage and an excellent 4.6% walk rate. He’s outperforming his $7.5MM salary and looks like a lock (barring injury) to decline a matching player option for next season.

If the Friars concede they’re unlikely to make the playoffs and move Snell and Hader, there’s little reason not to do the same with Lugo. The trade return wouldn’t be as strong for the 33-year-old as it would be with his higher-profile teammates, but he’d quietly be one of the better arms available.

18. Keynan Middleton, RP, White Sox

There’s no suspense with the White Sox’s direction. They’ve already shipped off a handful of relievers and Middleton’s a virtual lock to follow. An offseason minor league signee, the righty has exceeded expectations with a 3.82 ERA and 30.7% strikeout rate over 35 1/3 innings. He’s an affordable middle inning arm headed back to the open market at year’s end. There’s little reason for the Sox not to move him for a mid-tier prospect.

19. Randal Grichuk, OF, Rockies

20. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies

21. Brent Suter, RP, Rockies

22. Brad Hand, RP, Rockies

An assortment of impending free agents on a last-place Colorado team, all four of these players look likely to move. Grichuk is a right-handed hitter who can cover all three outfield spots and is destroying left-handed pitching this season. He has dramatic home-road splits but fits as a role player on a contender. Cron had a terrible start to the year while seemingly playing through back discomfort that eventually sent him to the injured list. He’s hitting .308/.338/.569 since coming off the IL and could appeal to a team looking for a right-handed power bat off the bench. The Rockies owe Grichuk $5MM this season, while Cron is making $7.5MM.

Suter is playing on a $3MM arbitration salary. The left-hander has a 2.51 ERA in 46 2/3 innings despite a middling 20.5% strikeout rate. Hand is playing on a $1.5MM salary with a $500K buyout on an option that’d become a mutual provision if he’s traded. His 4.76 ERA isn’t inspiring but he’s striking out more than a quarter of opponents. The Rockies have indicated more of a willingness to trade their rentals than in years past and already shipped Pierce Johnson to Atlanta.

23. Brooks Raley, RP, Mets

Raley is another short-term veteran for the Mets. New York holds a $6.5MM option on his services and could keep him around for another season, though they might view this as a good chance to cash him in. The lefty reliever has a 2.43 ERA over 37 innings. He’s issuing a few too many walks but striking out a quarter of batters faced while making $4.5MM.

24. Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox

Anderson is having a brutal offensive season, putting up just a .239/.282/.279 batting line without a home run in 348 plate appearances. He’d been an All-Star caliber player for a few seasons before this, one of the game’s best contact hitters with plus speed and decent shortstop defense. It’s an inopportune time for the ChiSox to move him, but Anderson has played poorly enough the club no longer seems assured of even exercising his $14MM option for next season. They’re reportedly open to offers on all but a few core players. Anderson, who is making $12.5MM this year, has drawn some reported attention from the Marlins.

25. Giovanny Gallegos, RP, Cardinals

Gallegos is less likely than the Cardinals above him on this list to move. He’s under contract for at least one more season at an affordable $5.5MM rate, while the club holds an option for 2025. With plans to reload in ’24, St. Louis could find it more desirable to hold one of their better relievers. Reports this week indicated the Cards were at least open to offers on Gallegos, though, as he could plausibly land some upper minors starting pitching which the organization desires. The 31-year-old righty owns a 3.77 ERA with a decent 24.1% strikeout rate and excellent 5.2% walk percentage over 43 innings. He has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in each of the past five seasons.

26. Paul Blackburn, SP, A’s

Blackburn is one of Oakland’s top starters. The righty battled finger/hand issues early in the season but has returned to pitch 10 times. His 5.06 ERA through 48 innings isn’t eye-catching, but his 22.2% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk percentage are around league average. Blackburn looks like a serviceable #4/5 starter. He’s making only $1.9MM and eligible for arbitration for two seasons beyond this one. The A’s don’t have to move him, but as a 29-year-old back-end starter, he’s likely not viewed as a building block of the ongoing rebuild.

27. Justin Verlander, SP, Mets

28. Max Scherzer, SP, Mets

The future Hall of Fame rotation duo could serve as a litmus test for how the Mets view their chances beyond this season. New York is clearly open to selling impending free agents but will reload for 2024. Do they still envision the pair of veteran star hurlers anchoring their next contending rotation?

Neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched at peak levels this season, though they’ve still been above-average MLB starters. They’re tied for the loftiest annual salary in big league history at $43.333MM. Verlander is signed through 2024 with a vesting/player option for ’25; Scherzer has a player option for next season which he seems inclined to exercise. Both have full no-trade protection but may be willing to waive it to facilitate a move to a club with World Series aspirations in 2023. There are a lot of roadblocks to a deal. The Mets would have to pay down some of the money; the players have to agree; the team has to find acceptable young talent. Yet if things all came together on either player, there would probably be no bigger name changing teams.

29. Cody Bellinger, OF, Cubs

30. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs

Had we published this list at the start of the week, Bellinger and Stroman would quite likely have placed within the top five. Such is the nature of deadline season, when teams can change their fortunes rapidly. Mike Tauchman’s game-saving catch last night in St. Louis pushed Chicago’s win streak to seven. Suddenly, they’re above .500 and only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot (and 4.5 back in the division).

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and chairman Tom Ricketts have maintained all summer they’d prefer to add if the club played well enough. The team has gotten hot at the last moment and given the front office reason to avoid a sale. Whether they’ll do so remains to be seen — they were reportedly undecided four days ago — but Bellinger and Stroman deals no longer seem assured (or even likely). Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly tweeted last night the team’s strong recent play could lead the front office to reconsider trading away veterans.

31. José Cisnero, RP, Tigers

32. Chasen Shreve, RP, Tigers

Cisnero and Shreve are on the opposite end of the spectrum of the players directly above them on the list. Neither Detroit reliever would grab many headlines but they seem very likely to move as impending free agents. Cisnero, a 34-year-old righty, has a 3.86 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers over 39 2/3 innings. He’s making $2.29MM in his final arbitration season. Shreve, a 33-year-old southpaw, carries a middling 4.70 ERA but solid peripherals in 38 1/3 frames. He’s making $1.25MM.

33. Rich Hill, SP, Pirates

Few players are as familiar with trade rumors as Hill. The veteran southpaw looks likely to move again after the Pirates fell out of the mix. He’s not having an exceptional season — 4.82 ERA, 19.1% strikeout rate over 114 innings — but he’s a respected clubhouse presence who could fit as a fifth or sixth starter on a contender seeking rotation depth. Hill is playing on an $8MM salary.

34. José Quintana, SP, Mets

Quintana has found himself in trade rumors all of two starts into his Mets’ tenure. The veteran southpaw required rib surgery in Spring Training that cost him the first half of the season. He has looked good in his two outings — five runs allowed in 11 innings — but would be an unconventional trade candidate given the limited workload. Quintana is making $13MM apiece in 2023-24. The Mets could probably find a taker for the bulk of that money but seem unlikely to get a solid prospect return unless they pay down a notable chunk of the deal. Whether that’s preferable to simply keeping him as part of next year’s rotation is to be determined.

35. Carlos Hernández, RP, Royals

36. Alex Lange, RP, Tigers

37. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals

38. Aaron Bummer, RP, White Sox

This group has extended control windows, but non-competitive teams can be more willing to relinquish a reliever than deal a controllable starter or bat. Hernández has wipeout stuff and has found his stride in the bullpen this season after a rocky career as a starter. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter and is controllable through 2027. Lange blends strong strikeout and grounder rates with well below-average control. He’s more volatile than the average reliever but has consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons and has saved 17 games for Detroit. Lange is also controllable for another four and a half years.

Finnegan has two and a half years of arbitration left. He’s making $2.3MM this season. A fastball-heavy righty, he has a 3.12 ERA with average peripherals across 43 1/3 innings. Finnegan has gotten the closer role in Washington with 14 saves but profiles better as a middle reliever for a contender.

Bummer is making $3.75MM this season, $5.5MM next year, and has club options covering 2025-26. The southpaw is allowing nearly seven earned runs per nine but has much stronger peripherals — including a 28.2% strikeout percentage and huge 54.2% grounder rate. Opposing teams will look beyond the ERA and the Sox have shown a willingness to listen on their relievers, dealing Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman despite controlling both beyond this season. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested (on Twitter) this morning that Chicago was more inclined to keep Bummer, but he has reportedly drawn interest from contenders.

39. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

40. Adam Ottavino, RP, Mets

The Mets would presumably be happy to find a taker for Carrasco and/or Ottavino. The former is an impending free agent, while the latter has a $6.75MM player option next season. They might be hard-pressed to find interest, however. Carrasco is making $14MM this year and has a 5.82 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk marks over 14 starts. Ottavino’s 3.40 ERA and 57.4% grounder rate are each excellent, but his strikeout to walk profile is middling. While he’s a respected high-leverage reliever, the player option saps a decent amount of the appeal.

41. Lane Thomas, OF, Nationals

How to proceed with Thomas is probably the toughest decision the Washington front office faces this summer. He’s having a strong year, hitting .287/.335/.477 with 16 longballs in 445 trips to the dish. The bulk of that production has been platoon-heavy; Thomas is teeing off on lefties (.364/.410/.643) compared to slightly below-average production versus righty pitching (.252/.301/.401).

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this week that was causing a discrepancy between the Nats and possible suitors on Thomas’ value. Rosenthal indicated the Nats viewed him as a quality regular while the market perceived him as more of a high-end platoon player. If that remains the case, the Nationals would probably hold him. He’s making just $2.2MM and eligible for arbitration through 2025. If the scarcity of productive bats leads other teams to up their offers in the next few days, the Nats could look to move him.

42. Elias Díaz, C, Rockies

Díaz would have a decent amount of appeal on a trade market light on catching talent. The All-Star Game MVP has a .270/.328/.419 line with 10 homers across 348 plate appearances. Playing in Coors Field helps — Díaz’s power numbers are predictably much better at home than on the road — but he’s a solid hitter for a catcher. He’s never gotten good reviews from public pitch framing metrics but has plus arm strength and is adept at blocking balls in the dirt.

Colorado will have a higher ask on Díaz than on the rentals listed above. He’s making only $5.5MM this season and under contract for $6MM next year.

43. Aaron Civale, SP, Guardians

If the Guardians were to deal from their controllable rotation options for offensive help, Civale is the candidate. Cleveland probably won’t part with any of their rookie hurlers, while injuries to Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill take them out of the equation. The Guardians rolled the dice on Noah Syndergaard a few days ago to help address that injury-plagued starting staff, perhaps easing some concerns about the rotation depth if they listened on Civale.

The right-hander has a 2.54 ERA over 12 starts. His strikeout/walk profile is more akin to that of the solid #3/4 starter he’s been throughout his career as opposed to a budding ace. That’s still plenty valuable, though, particularly since Civale is only making $2.6MM. He’s eligible for arbitration two more times. The Guardians aren’t going to give him away; they’d likely only make a move if it netted them immediate lineup help as they look to track down the Twins in the AL Central.

44. Joey Bart, C, Giants

Bart has seemed an obvious change-of-scenery candidate for a few months. The former #2 overall pick has been passed as San Francisco’s catcher of the future by Patrick Bailey. He’s on optional assignment to Triple-A, hitting .218/.304/.353 in 34 games.

The right-handed hitter has been plagued by swing-and-miss at the big league level. He’s a career .223/.293/.342 hitter in 158 contests, striking out nearly 36% of the time. This is his final minor league option season, so he’s running low on time to establish himself as a regular. The opportunity is probably never coming again in San Francisco, but teams like the Marlins or Yankees could give him a look.

45. Mark Leiter Jr., RP, Cubs

46. Michael Fulmer, RP, Cubs

Leiter and Fulmer are the next tier down of trade candidates if the Cubs did decide to sell. The former has a 3.14 ERA with excellent strikeout (31.4%) and grounder (50.5%) rates in 43 innings. He’s arbitration-eligible through 2026 but would never have more trade appeal than he does now. If the Cubs push in this year, they won’t move him, but if they deal Bellinger/Stroman, selling high on Leiter would be a natural next step. Fulmer has pitched well of late and carries a 4.40 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate in 45 frames. He’s playing on a $4MM salary and will head back to the open market at year’s end.

47. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds

India found himself in rumors early this week when MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the Reds were open to moving him for controllable starting pitching. Subsequent reports categorized that more as a matter of due diligence and indicated an offseason deal was more likely. India has a fair bit of trade appeal with three and a half seasons of remaining arbitration control but isn’t likely to fetch an impact starter with multiple control years on his own. He’d started the year strong but slumped of late, leaving him with a league average .251/.336/.409 slash on the season.

48. Adam Duvall, OF, Red Sox

The Red Sox have played their way out of consideration of selling. A five-game win streak pulls them within a game and a half of a Wild Card spot. They’re going to add over the next few days, likely on the pitching side. Still, they could dealing ancillary pieces off the MLB roster — particularly if it nets them pitching help — and Duvall seems the likeliest candidate.

He’d been scorching hot through the season’s first couple weeks but broke his wrist in mid-April. Jarren Duran seized the center field job between Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida in the interim. Duvall hasn’t hit since coming off the IL, posting a .211/.279/.375 line with a 36.4% strikeout rate in 34 games. Still, there could be interest from clubs with a more direct path to outfield playing time; the Phillies and Braves have been speculated as possible fits. Duvall is making $7MM and is an impending free agent.

49. David Bednar, RP, Pirates

50. Mitch Keller, SP, Pirates

Bednar and Keller have come up in loose trade chatter this week. It seems more due diligence than anything else, with multiple reports suggesting a trade of either is unlikely. Bednar is an elite reliever and Pittsburgh native who’s controllable through 2026. Keller, a former top prospect, has developed into an upper mid-rotation arm and is eligible for arbitration for two and a half seasons. There’ll be plenty of interest but huge asking prices on both.

Others To Watch

A’s: Seth Brown, Tony Kemp, Ramón Laureano, Sam Moll

Angels: Jo Adell

Astros: Jake Meyers

Blue Jays: Santiago Espinal

Brewers: Víctor Caratini

Cardinals: Alec Burleson, Ryan Helsley, Iván Herrera

Cubs: Yan Gomes, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly

Giants: Alex Wood

Mariners: Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Tom Murphy, Bryan Woo

Mets: Omar Narváez, Drew Smith

Nationals: Trevor Williams

Padres: Luis Garcia, Nick Martinez

Pirates: Ji Man Choi, Austin Hedges, Colin Holderman

Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec

Reds: Kevin Newman, Nick Senzel

Rockies: Jurickson Profar

Royals: Matt Duffy, Nicky Lopez, Brady Singer

Tigers: Jason Foley, Tyler Holton

Twins: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach

White Sox: Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Gregory Santos

Yankees: Gleyber Torres, Wandy Peralta

Phillies Interested In Adam Duvall

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The Phillies are scouting Red Sox outfielder Adam Duvall, reports Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. That would align with Philadelphia’s reported interest in adding a right-handed bat.

Duvall, 34, signed with the Sox in January to help them cover center field. His deal came with a $7MM guarantee and incentives based on plate appearances. With shortstop Trevor Story having undergone elbow surgery, their plan was to move Enrique Hernández from center to shortstop, with Duvall and Raimel Tapia brought aboard to help out in center.

Through eight games, Duvall had apparently activated god mode, hitting .455/.514/1.030. Unfortunately, he then suffered a fractured wrist and wasn’t able to return until June. Since then, he’s hit a far more earthly .211/.279/.395. That’s been a running theme for Duvall, who has occasionally looked great at the plate but has also been held back by injuries. He hit 38 home runs in 2021 but then followed that up with diminished results last year while missing roughly half the season due to wrist surgery.

But the fact that the Phils are interested is sensible. As mentioned, they are looking for a right-handed bat, which would be a good fit for their lineup. They have many lefties getting regular action, with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Jake Cave all hitting from that side. Adding another right-handed bat into the mix could allow the club to shield some in that group from lefties on occasion, either by platooning or pinch-hitting.

From the Red Sox’ perspective, they aren’t under any obligation to trade Duvall. He is an impending free agent, but they are in the thick of a postseason race, 2.5 games behind the Blue Jays and Astros for a Wild Card spot. It was reported yesterday that the club has no interest in trading Justin Turner, who is also likely to hit free agency this fall by declining a player option. The Sox could take the same approach with Duvall and simply hold him for their playoff push.

But there’s also a case for cashing him in, if they get a compelling offer. While Duvall was on the injured list, Jarren Duran seemingly cemented himself as a viable major leaguer in center. The 26-year-old struggled in his first tastes of major league pitching but has broken out with a .311/.363/.500 showing this year, stealing 21 bases to boot with roughly average defense. Alongside Masataka Yoshida and Alex Verdugo, the Sox could consider themselves set in the outfield.

All three of those guys hit from the left side, so perhaps Boston could still utilize Duvall as a right-handed complement to them. But they already have Rob Refsnyder on the roster for essentially the same reason. He’s hit .358/.475/.457 against southpaws this year and .276/.381/.390 in his career. He and the club already agreed to a contract for 2024 with a club option for 2025. Each of Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo are either under contract or club control next year as well.

Perhaps the Sox would consider moving on from Duvall and rolling with that group as its outfield mix, maybe exchanging him for pitching or a prospect. It’s unclear if the Sox have interest in that but they have already reportedly received interest from Atlanta and now Philadelphia as well. If the Phillies can’t get a deal done on Duvall, other options include Tommy Pham and Randal Grichuk. The trade deadline is August 1.

Corey Kluber Shut Down From Baseball Activities After Setback

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The Red Sox have shut down Corey Kluber from baseball activity, the team informed reporters (including Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). The right-hander suffered a setback while rehabbing from shoulder inflammation that sent him to the injured list five weeks ago.

It’s unclear if Kluber’s season is finished. He at least seems likely to be moved to the 60-day injured list once the Sox need a 40-man roster spot, as it’s hard to envision him being ready for MLB action before the third week of August — when he’d be eligible to return from a 60-day placement.

The 2023 season has been a frustration for the two-time Cy Young winner. Kluber struggled over nine starts, posting a 6.26 ERA in 41 2/3 innings. The Sox bumped him out of the rotation. Unlike Nick Pivetta — who has thrived in somewhat shorter stints — Kluber has continued to scuffle in relief. He’s allowed 14 runs in 13 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, largely on account of six homers surrendered.

Kluber’s contract has an $11MM club option for next season. Whether he’s able to make it back to the mound or not, that’ll get bought out. He’ll return to free agency during the upcoming offseason.

Mozeliak: Cardinals Are Not Trading Nolan Arenado

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The Cardinals are not trading  Nolan Arenado, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly stating that fact to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. There was a report earlier this week that the Dodgers had strong interest in the third baseman and were discussing a deal, but it seems those talks won’t lead to Arenado leaving St. Louis. “I have stated we are not trading him, have not asked him to waive his no-trade clause,” Mozeliak said. “So at this time, we are working on building for future success.”

Despite the reported talks with the Dodgers, there were inherent obstacles to getting a deal done. For one thing, Arenado and the Cardinals seem to have a good relationship, as he didn’t trigger his opt-out opportunity at the end of last year. Most observers agreed he could have beat the five years and $144MM remaining on the deal, but he chose to stay, seemingly happy to stick with the organization as opposed to maximizing his earnings.

Since he has a full no-trade clause, he would have to sign off on any deal, and it would be surprising for him to do so after just waiving that opt-out chance. The report on the talks with the Dodgers indicated he was willing to accept a deal only to the Dodgers, having always wanted to play for them as a Southern California native. But Arenado told reporters last night that he had not been approached about his clause.

Beyond the contractual complications, all indications have suggested the Cards are planning to sell some pieces but still try to contend again next year. Since Arenado is one of the better players in the game, it would be hard to imagine a scenario wherein they subtract him from the roster and make their 2024 team better. The Cards do have a surplus of position players and a dearth of pitching, so perhaps one could make the argument that even “losing” a trade that makes the pitching staff better would be a net victory, but the easier path is just to keep Arenado and find other ways of upgrading the pitching staff.

Although Arenado is apparently sticking around, it still seems like Mozeliak and his staff will be busy in the next few days. The Cardinals are currently 46-59 and 11 games out of a playoff spot. Mozeliak has already admitted that the club will have to do some selling, making moves that are more focused on upgrading the 2024 club. That will seemingly lead to trades of impending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks between now and the August 1 deadline.

Alec Burleson Drawing Trade Interest

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The Cardinals are going into the trade deadline as sellers and rival clubs are calling about outfielder Alec Burleson, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

It’s been a disappointing season in St. Louis. Despite coming into the year with competitive aspirations, they currently sport a record of 46-59, with only percentage points separating them from the Pirates and last place in the National League Central. They are 10.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and further back in the division.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted weeks ago that the club would have to make moves this summer that would improve the club’s chances in 2024. That makes it seem highly likely that impending free agents like Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Hicks will wind up traded for players with more ability to help the Cards in the long-term.

Burleson wouldn’t fit into that category, as he’s on pace to surpass one-year of service time this year, meaning he’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign. But it’s quite apparent that the Cardinals have an outfield logjam, which will need to be cleared one way or another. The regular playing time is going to Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Tyler O’Neill right now, with Burleson and Dylan Carlson also in the mix.

That’s already crowded enough as it is, but it gets worse. Tommy Edman was pushed from shortstop into the outfield by the resurgence of Paul DeJong. He’s currently on the injured list but is beginning a rehab assignment shortly, putting him back in the picture. The Cardinals are expected to move DeJong in the coming days but one of their top prospects, Masyn Winn, is a shortstop currently playing in Triple-A. Whenever he gets an audition at the big league level, Edman could be back on the grass.

Brendan Donovan also got pushed into the outfield this year with Nolan Gorman taking over regular duties at second base. Donovan currently has a flexor tendon injury in his right arm that prevents him from playing the field, limiting him to designated hitter duties for now, but he should be in the outfield mix again at some point.

Given all of those options, it seems like something has to give. It was recently reported that O’Neill is unlikely to be traded, though Goold adds that the Cards are open to it but the proposals have been underwhelming. That’s not surprising given that he’s been posting diminished production while battling injuries in the past two years. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs while slashing .286/.352/.560, stealing 15 bases in the process. But since then, he’s made multiple trips to the injured list and has hit just .234/.312/.385. He returned from the IL over a week ago and Goold adds that the Cards plan to play him as often as possible, both to assess his health and see if he can improve his trade stock. He’s hit a strong .323/.432/.452 since being activated but in just nine games.

If O’Neill can’t get a nice trade return, then perhaps the Cardinals will have to move someone else in order to clear some space. Carlson has already received plenty of interest and could perhaps be the most likely to be moved, but rival clubs are apparently intrigued by Burleson enough to put in some calls.

The 24-year-old Burleson hasn’t hit much in the majors yet, having slashed .230/.284/.370 since first being called up last year. But that’s come in a fairly limited role, as he’s only received 282 plate appearances since being recalled in September of last year. Before getting called up, he was hitting .331/.372/.532 in Triple-A, producing a 137 wRC+. He was generally considered one of the club’s top 10 prospects in recent years on account of that bat.

Though he hasn’t yet broken out at the big league level, perhaps he would have a better chance of doing so on a club with the ability to give him regular playing time. It’s therefore pretty understandable why clubs would put in a call. He’s still a couple of years away from qualifying for arbitration and even further from free agency. That means the Cardinals could certainly hang onto him, but with the aforementioned crowding, perhaps an intriguing offer makes them pull the trigger.

The Cardinals figure to be one of the most interesting teams between now and the August 1 deadline, with plenty of impending free agents who make for logical trade candidates. They also have a cluster of controllable position players and seem likely to move at least one of them between now and Tuesday.

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