The Dodgers are among the teams showing interest in White Sox righty Lucas Giolito, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a natural fit, given the Dodgers’ need for rotation reinforcements and the White Sox’ status as likely sellers of short-term pieces. Giolito is a free agent at season’s end.
Giolito, who’ll turn 29 tomorrow, figures to be of interest to a wide variety of contending clubs. He’s in the midst of a strong season, is earning a $10.4MM salary this season, and has a strong track record dating back to his 2019 breakout. Similarly, the Dodgers figure to cast a wide net as they survey the trade market for starting pitching help. While it’s certainly of note that they’ve shown some interest in Giolito, there’s also no indication that there have been any advanced talks for the righty or that he, in particular, is being pursued more aggressively than the many other starters expected to popular the trade market. In some regards, it’d actually be more surprising to learn that the Dodgers weren’t interested in Giolito, given how logical the pairing is.
Los Angeles’ starting staff has been ravaged by injuries this season. The Dodgers have already lost Dustin May for the season (flexor surgery), and they’ve endured lengthy absences from each of Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and struggling offseason signee Noah Syndergaard. Prospect Ryan Pepiot won the fifth starter’s job in camp this spring but suffered an oblique injury at the end of camp that has kept him out for the entire first half. Ace Clayton Kershaw hit the injured list late last month due to discomfort in his left shoulder. They knew coming into the year that Walker Buehler would be out until at least September after undergoing Tommy John surgery on Aug. 23 last summer.
The Dodgers have tapped into their pitching-rich system to patch things over, already calling up top prospects Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone for their big league debuts. Miller and Sheehan are both in the rotation at the moment, as is 26-year-old righty Michael Grove, who entered the ’23 season with just 29 1/3 big league innings under his belt. Grove has been tagged for a 6.89 ERA, however, struggling at a similar level to the previously mentioned Syndergaard (7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings).
Giolito isn’t missing bats at the same level as his 2019-20 peak, when he posted a massive 32.7% strikeout rate, but his results are in line with his best prior seasons. He’s sitting on a 3.45 ERA with a strong 25.3% strikeout rate and similarly impressive 7.4% walk rate. With the exception of last year’s 4.90 ERA, which looks like a clear outlier, Giolito has posted an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53 every season since 2019. Overall, he carries a 3.80 ERA in his past 701 2/3 big league innings. The right-hander is also averaging just under six innings per start in 2023, so he’d help give a break to the bullpen of any team to which he’s traded.
The White Sox figure to seek a strong return in any trade for Giolito. He’s one of the top arms on the market — arguably the top arm — and is a clear qualifying offer candidate at season’s end if they don’t trade him. As a 29-year-old free agent with a strong and durable track record, Giolito would be a slam dunk to reject that offer and hit the open market in search of a long-term, likely nine-figure deal. In the event that he signed elsewhere, the White Sox would receive a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B in the 2024 draft (roughly in the mid-70s). In order to trade the righty, the ChiSox would need to feel they’re receiving greater value than the value of that theoretical 2024 draft selection.
Giolito recently landed in the top spot on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates — a reflection both of his on-field value and of the simple likelihood of him being traded in the next 19 days. (He also placed fourth on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings late last month.) The South Siders initially only planned to make rental players available, but recent reports have suggested that they’re now open to offers on the majority of their roster, save for the young core of Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn. In either scenario, Giolito figures to be available and among the likeliest stars to change hands in the next few weeks.