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Archives for July 2023

The Opener: Extensions, Marisnick, Recent DFAs

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With MLB’s trade deadline just two weeks away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Are more mid-season extension negotiations on the horizon?

While players and clubs typically try to avoid in-season extension talks, that occasionally changes in the run-up to the trade deadline. The Braves signed catcher Travis d’Arnaud to an extension yesterday, and last year’s deal between the Padres and Joe Musgrove stands as another recent example of two sides coming together on an extension in the midst of trade season. While d’Arnaud isn’t the only player for whom an extension has been a recent topic of discussion, other rumored extension possibilities come with roadblocks. The Red Sox reportedly have interest in an extension with young right-hander Brayan Bello, but Bello has indicated he prefers not to negotiate in-season. On the other hand, veteran hurler Marcus Stroman has expressed a desire to stay with the Cubs, but the club’s front office does not appear to reciprocate that interest.

2. Marisnick to undergo MRI:

Dodgers outfielder Jake Marisnick is set to undergo an MRI with the expectation that he’ll require a trip to the injured list, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Marisnick has appeared in just four games with the Dodgers since signing with the club on a major-league deal last week after stints with the White Sox and Tigers earlier in the season. If Marisnick winds up missing significant time, that would only increase pressure on the Dodgers to add a right-handed outfielder prior to the trade deadline, as the club has begun to rely on a fully lefty outfield of James Outman, David Peralta, and Jason Heyward with Mookie Betts and Chris Taylor taking on more infield work in recent days. In the meantime, Ardaya reports the Dodgers are expected to recall outfielder Jonny Deluca to take Marisnick’s spot on the roster.

3. Recent DFAs to monitor:

Cardinals lefty Genesis Cabrera and Rays right-hander Yonny Chirinos were designated for assignment earlier in the week, and both are more established names than the typical DFA fodder. Cabrera has had a rough stretch in 2022-23 but notched a 3.41 ERA and 28.7% strikeout rate in 92 1/3 innings from 2020-21. Command has always been an issue for him (career 12.2% walk rate), but lefties who average 96 mph and miss bats don’t grow on trees; it’s feasible that the DFA could accelerate talks on a potential trade. Chirinos, meanwhile, has posted a career-low 11.8% strikeout rate this season but nevertheless sports a respectable 4.02 ERA in 66 2/3 innings. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the past couple seasons for the right-hander, but back in 2018-19 he gave Tampa Bay 223 innings of 3.71 ERA ball with a 21% strikeout rate and terrific 5.9% walk rate. There are workload concerns after he missed so much time from 2020-22, but Chirinos stands as a possible trade candidate who could help teams in need of rotation depth.

Both players’ DFA windows will extend to July 24, but it’s likely the Rays and Cardinals are in ongoing talks with other clubs on the pair of experienced hurlers.

Braves Extend Travis d’Arnaud

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The Braves announced they’ve signed catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a one-year, $8MM deal covering the 2024 season. The contract also contains an $8MM club option for the ’25 season with no buyout. d’Arnaud is represented by Wasserman.

Atlanta controlled d’Arnaud on an $8MM team option for 2024. They’ll preemptively trigger that provision. In exchange, the veteran backstop gives the team a matching option for the following year. It’s familiar territory for an Atlanta organization that has been very aggressive about signing players to extensions.

It is also a comfortable spot for d’Arnaud himself. He’s now signed a trio of contracts with the Braves over the past half-decade. He first agreed on a two-year, $16MM deal in free agency over the 2019-20 offseason. Midway through the ’21 season, he re-upped on a matching $16MM contract that contained the ’24 option. He’s now locked in for a fifth campaign at Truist Park.

Now 34, d’Arnaud has been an effective backstop throughout his time in the organization. He hit .266/.324/.462 over his first three seasons as a Brave. Catching wasn’t a need last winter, but the Atlanta front office seized on the opportunity to add a star catcher on the trade market. Atlanta acquired and promptly extended Sean Murphy, pushing d’Arnaud into a reserve role.

While he’s overqualified for a #2 catching position, the former All-Star has taken his new role in stride. d’Arnaud carries a .265/.338/.478 line with eight home runs through 151 trips to the plate on the season. He’s walking at a personal-high 9.3% clip and has maintained his previous contact and power production on a rate basis. d’Arnaud has gotten 27 starts behind the plate compared to Murphy’s 60 nods.

Despite the diminished role, he’s clearly happy in Atlanta. He’ll reprise his role as Murphy’s backup for at least one more season and potentially an additional year beyond that. d’Arnaud will soon surpass the 10-year MLB service threshold. The ’24 campaign will be his fifth in Atlanta. If the Braves keep him around for 2025, he’d have automatic no-trade rights that season as a 10-and-5 player (10 years of service, the past five of which have come for the same team) under the collective bargaining agreement.

That’s a possible longer-term consideration. For now, the move solidifies the catching position with a high-quality backup for a second year. Atlanta’s 2024 payroll commitments now sit around $138MM, as estimated by Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax number is a bit under $159MM. The Braves opened this season with a franchise-record payroll estimated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts around $203MM.

With d’Arnaud officially off the board, the upcoming free agent catching class takes another hit. Unlike last year, where Willson Contreras was a clear candidate for a long-term deal, next winter’s group mostly consists of veteran depth types. Tom Murphy, Yasmani Grandal, Austin Hedges and Víctor Caratini are among the top names available. The Cubs hold a $6MM club option on Yan Gomes as well.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/18/23

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The first overall pick signed for a record bonus with the Pirates this afternoon. Meanwhile, Arizona signed their first-round selection for a $4.4MM figure. The other $2MM+ signees from Tuesday (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):

  • The Phillies announced a deal with 27th overall pick Aidan Miller. The club didn’t specify the signing figure, but Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports it at $3.1MM (Twitter link). That’s a little north of the $2.97MM slot value. A high school infielder out of Florida, Miller appeared on the top 25 players on each of the referenced pre-draft rankings. The 6’2″ third baseman is credited with some of the highest offensive upside in the high school class, though he had a relatively down draft year after injuring the hamate bone in his hand. He’s already 19 — older than the typical high schooler — but has significant power potential and a chance to stick at the hot corner. Miller bypasses a commitment to Arkansas to enter the pro ranks.
  • The Padres agreed to terms with 25th selection Dillon Head, Callis reports (on Twitter). The Illinois high schooler gets a $2.8MM bonus, a little below the pick’s $3.17MM slot value. Head ranked 27th on MLB Pipeline’s pre-draft list but as low as 50th on Keith Law’s ranking at The Athletic. The lefty-hitting outfielder is an elite runner and a potential quality defensive center fielder. Evaluators are split on how much offensive upside he possesses in a 5’11” or 6’0″ frame. Head was a Clemson commit.
  • The Royals went well overslot to sign second-round draftee Blake Wolters, according to Callis (Twitter link). A high school right-hander from Illinois, he lands a $2.8MM bonus that beats the $1.95MM value of the 44th pick. The 6’4″ hurler had a velocity bump into the mid-90s during his draft year. He’s credited with a quality slider and intriguing athleticism but faces questions about his third pitch. It’s a fairly common refrain for an upside flier on a high school pitcher. Kansas City liked Wolters enough to sign him away from the University of Arizona.

Giants Place Cole Waites On 60-Day Injured List

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The Giants placed reliever Cole Waites on the 60-day injured list this afternoon. He’s dealing with a sprain in his throwing elbow, tweets Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. To take the open 40-man roster spot, outfielder Heliot Ramos was reinstated from a 60-day IL stint of his own and optioned to Triple-A Sacramento.

Waites, 25, has made three appearances for San Francisco this season. He debuted with seven games late last season. He’s allowed seven runs in his first eight MLB innings. Waites has spent the majority of the year on optional assignment to Triple-A, where he’s been tagged for a 6.16 ERA across 30 2/3 frames. The righty has walked nearly 19% of batters faced in the minors this year.

The club didn’t provide specifics on Waites’ return timetable, though his season could be in jeopardy. He’ll be out until at least mid-September. The only silver lining is that he’ll be paid at the prorated $720K MLB minimum rate and collect service for time spent on the major league injured list.

Ramos missed two months with an oblique strain. The former first-round pick has appeared in nine MLB contests in each of the past two seasons. Before the injury, he’d been off to a strong start in Triple-A. Ramos was hitting .314/.368/.589 in 27 contests for the River Cats early in the year.

KBO’s Lotte Giants Sign Aaron Wilkerson, Release Dan Straily

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The Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization announced an agreement with right-hander Aaron Wilkerson this morning (h/t to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). He’ll be paid $350K through season’s end.

Wilkerson, 34, has pitched professionally since 2013. He logged 14 big league appearances, all of which came with Milwaukee between 2017-19. Wilkerson spent part of last season in Japan with the Hanshin Tigers before returning to the U.S. for 2023. He’d been in the A’s system on a minor league pact, working to a 6.51 ERA through 47 innings with Triple-A Las Vegas.

The A’s granted Wilkerson his release last week. That was apparently so he could pursue the KBO opportunity, which’ll be the first of his career. (Oakland subsequently signed righty Zack Godley as non-roster rotation depth). Wilkerson has a 4.02 ERA over parts of five Triple-A seasons, striking out just under a quarter of opponents in the process.

In a corresponding transaction, Lotte released veteran righty Dan Straily. KBO teams are permitted a maximum of three foreign-born players (two pitchers) on the roster. The Giants will move forward with Charlie Barnes and Wilkerson. Straily has spent four of the last five seasons with Lotte. He was effective for the bulk of that time, including a 2.50 ERA in 2019 and a 2.31 mark over 11 starts after re-signing last August.

Straily hasn’t quite found his groove in 2023, however. He has a 4.37 ERA with a 19.2% strikeout rate and elevated 10.2% walk percentage through 80 1/3 innings. That led the Giants to move on and put Straily back on the open market. The 34-year-old was in affiliated ball last season, spending some time with the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A club. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since an eight-year run from 2012-19.

T.J. McFarland Elects Free Agency

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July 18: McFarland has elected free agency, according to his transactions tracker.

July 17: The Mets have sent reliever Stephen Ridings outright to Triple-A Syracuse, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. Since New York hadn’t previously announced he was on waivers, the move creates a vacancy on the 40-man roster. The count drops to 39.

Ridings joined the organization on a waiver claim from the Yankees last November. A lat strain kept him on the injured list though mid-June. New York promptly optioned him to Triple-A upon reinstating him from the IL and he has yet to make a big league appearance as a Met.

The 6’8″ righty has made seven appearances with Syracuse, allowing six runs with six strikeouts and walks apiece over 6 1/3 innings. There’s some understandable signs of rust after the 27-year-old missed almost the entire 2022 campaign with a shoulder issue. Ridings’ sole MLB experience consists of five innings of two-run ball for the Yankees two seasons back.

This is the first time in Ridings’ career in which he has cleared waivers. He also has less than three years of MLB service, so he won’t have the ability to test free agency. Ridings will stick in the organization as a non-roster player and try to pitch his way back into the MLB mix. If he’s not added back to the 40-man roster by season’s end, he’ll qualify for minor league free agency to start the offseason.

The transaction log also indicates that veteran southpaw T.J. McFarland cleared outright waivers. Unlike Ridings, McFarland had been designated for assignment before he was placed on waivers, so he was already off the 40-man roster. He made just three MLB appearances with New York but has had a strong season in Syracuse, working to a 2.76 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate in the minors.

McFarland has more than enough service time to decline an outright assignment while retaining what remains of this year’s salary. It isn’t clear if he’ll head back to free agency or return to Syracuse and hope for another opportunity in Queens.

Dombrowski: Phillies No Longer Counting On Andrew Painter As 2023 Rotation Depth

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Phillies top pitching prospect Andrew Painter has had an injury-plagued 2023 season. A potential season-opening rotation member, the highly-touted righty sprained the UCL in his throwing elbow in Spring Training. His rehab was set back a couple weeks ago when he experienced renewed discomfort and was shut back down.

Philadelphia expressed general relief about the latest testing on Painter’s elbow, saying his UCL was healing (via Matt Gelb of the Athletic). The soreness led them to back down his throwing program out of an abundance of caution though. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested this afternoon they’re no longer viewing Painter as a key factor for the 2023 MLB staff.

“We’re not counting on him as depth at this time,” Dombrowski told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. “Where he is at this point, he has tenderness [in the elbow]. He’s still dealing with that. I mean, you can just do the math. It just doesn’t make sense. I think basically as of a couple weeks ago when he had that [setback], in my own mind I thought that’s it for this year.”

While the Phils haven’t officially announced Painter as being done for the season, it looks unlikely he’ll make his MLB debut before 2024. Barring further setbacks, the 20-year-old still figures to enter next year as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects and a potential factor for the MLB rotation.

Relatedly, Dombrowski told Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post on their podcast that Philadelphia was open to adding rotation depth before the August 1 deadline. That’s no surprise; as Dombrowski pointed out, the vast majority of the league could stand to secure more pitching depth.

Philadelphia has a starting five of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez. Sánchez was a late entrant in that mix but has pitched well through six starts. In 30 1/3 innings, the 26-year-old southpaw owns a 3.26 ERA built on an excellent 54.1% grounder rate.

Dombrowski praised Sánchez’s performance and implied the Phils were happy with their current top five starters. However, he indicated they could look to fortify the depth in case anyone in their current group suffers an injury. Bailey Falter stands as the #6 starter. He has a 4.38 ERA over nine Triple-A starts after surrendering a 5.13 mark over 40 1/3 big league innings early in the season.

A Likely Trade Chip In The Rockies’ Outfield

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As recently as a few months ago, the Rockies’ 2022 swap of Raimel Tapia for Blue Jays outfielder Randal Grichuk looked like a no-win trade for both parties. Tapia lasted one season in Toronto before being non-tendered and signing a minor league deal with the Red Sox. Grichuk’s offense didn’t tick up in his first year at Coors Field, as many had expected it to. He posted his typical sub-.300 OBP and surprisingly had his lowest power showing (by measure of ISO) since his rookie campaign. He was essentially a replacement-level player in 2022.

The 2023 season has brought about better results, however. Grichuk still isn’t hitting for the same level of power he did during his Toronto days (five homers, .172 ISO in 225 plate appearances), but he’s walking at a career-best 7.6% clip and currently has a 20.9% strikeout rate that ties his career-low mark.

Grichuk has undoubtedly had some good fortune on balls in play — his .368 BABIP is 70 points north of his career-high — but his .300/.364/.473 batting line is impressive all the same. The 31-year-old’s 90.6 mph average exit velocity and 45.2% hard-hit rate are both well above-average and only narrowly short of his career-best levels. His 24.2% line-drive rate is a personal best by a wide margin.

Things have gone particularly well for the veteran outfielder as of late. After a brief but dismal slump in the first couple weeks of June, Grichuk has bounced back with a .322/.375/.610 slash over his past 64 trips to the plate. Today’s front offices generally aren’t going to overreact to a short hot streak, but Grichuk’s recent uptick in production is particularly notable given that he’s slugged four of his five home runs in that stretch. After posting just a 33.6% fly-ball rate through mid-June, he’s had a 44% fly-ball rate during this heater.

While he’s having an undeniably productive season at the plate, Grichuk’s game has ostensibly taken a step back in other areas. Defensive Runs Saved (-8) and Outs Above Average (-6) agree that this is among the worst defensive seasons of his career — if not the worst.

As a rookie, Grichuk ranked in the 91st percentile of big leaguers in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. It’s only natural for a player to slow down as he ages, but Grichuk had well above-average speed as recently as 2021 (76th percentile) and 2022 (68th percentile). He’s down to the 46th percentile of MLB players in 2023 — the first below-average season of his career. His arm strength remains above average, but Statcast now places him in just the fourth percentile of MLB outfielders in terms of his outfield jumps.

Taken in totality, it’s a somewhat limited skill set. Grichuk can play all three outfield spots but has generally rated best in right field. He’s hitting well against righties in 2023 (.295/.357/.439) and tattooing lefties (.313/.380/.537), but his career body of work is below-average when he’s not holding the platoon advantage.

Grichuk is a solid enough role player who’s been thrust into an everyday role with the Rockies. The results in ’23 have been decent enough, but combined with his 2022 season he still looks better deployed in a more limited capacity.

That’s likely how many contenders will view him. Grichuk is a career .264/.311/.498 hitter against southpaws who’s made gains in terms of his overall plate discipline this season, albeit at the expense of some power. His defensive ratings are down, but that’s partially due to being played in center field, where he’s no longer a good fit, and in left field, where he hadn’t logged an innings since 2018 (when he played six frames there).

A contending team could install Grichuk as a part-time DH and right fielder whose primary role is to step into the lineup and help against southpaws. He can cover center field in a pinch and has enough bat that he’s not a total liability when needed to play against righties.

There are plenty of clubs in need of just this type of skill set. The Giants, Guardians, Twins and Brewers are all playoff hopefuls whose team-wide production against left-handed pitching ranks in the bottom seven of MLB clubs (by measure of wRC+). The D-backs, who have an all-left-handed outfield, are only slightly better, at 21st.

In seasons past, it might’ve been fair to wonder whether the Rockies would move Grichuk at all. Frankly, based on their history of hanging onto impending free agents, it still is. However, Rockies manager Bud Black said on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM just today that he believes his team’s front office will be “more active” than in seasons past at this year’s trade deadline.

Grichuk is a natural candidate to be moved. He’s a free agent at season’s end who’s earning $9.333MM this season. The Blue Jays are on the hook for $4.333MM of that sum as part of the trade that brought him to Denver in the first place, however, meaning an acquiring team would only be responsible for $2.02MM of the $5MM the Rockies are paying him (as of tomorrow). Colorado, of course, could pay down some of that money to increase his appeal.

Grichuk isn’t going to be a contender’s marquee addition, but he can can deepen a team’s bench and — based on Black’s comments today — seems like a player with a good chance to change teams in the next 14 days.

Mike Hazen Discusses Diamondbacks’ Deadline Approach

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The Diamondbacks are having their best season in quite a while, setting them up to be deadline buyers for the first time in years. They haven’t finished above .500 since 2019 and haven’t cracked the postseason since 2017, but are currently 52-42 and in possession of a National League Wild Card spot. General manager Mike Hazen spoke with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic about the upcoming August 1 trade deadline and how the club hopes to make bold moves to help out this year without significantly harming the future.

“There’s a difference between being aggressive and reckless,” Hazen said. “We’re not going to be reckless. We’ll be aggressive, even ultra-aggressive, but I feel like being reckless does not serve anyone’s interests, this year’s team or in the future.”

This year’s trade deadline is seemingly defined by general uncertainty, with various clubs hovering near the middle and having to make difficult decisions about buying or selling. With the expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions, very few clubs are clearly in contention or out of contention and many are in the middle. Not too long ago, the Diamondbacks were one of the few clear buyers, as they had been leading the National League West for much of the year. However, they’ve gone 2-8 over their last 10 games and are now behind both the Dodgers and Giants in the division, pushing them closer to that mushy middle area.

That doesn’t seem like it’s going to dissuade Hazen from making moves to bolster the club in the weeks to come. “I think based on the way this team is standing right now we should be looking at being aggressive at the deadline,” he said. “I’m expecting us to play Diamondback baseball for the next two weeks so we’ll be standing in the same spot or better, so, yeah, we’re going to behave that way.”

About six weeks ago, Hazen candidly admitted that pitching would likely be the club’s focus at the deadline. That’s not surprising given that the rotation has been fairly mediocre outside of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, the latter of whom is on the injured list. The question for the D’Backs seems to be how much they are willing to give up in order to get that pitching. Given Hazen’s comments about being “aggressive” but not “reckless,” it seems fair to expect the club won’t be looking to deal its top prospects, such as Jordan Lawlar or Brandon Pfaadt.

That’s a defensible lane for the club to pick, given their current trajectory. They are built around a young core of players like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno and others, perhaps setting them up to be in contention for many years to come. Hazen and the rest of his staff will surely want to increase the club’s chances here in 2023 but also don’t want to hamper the rest of their competitive window.

That being said, it seems that Hazen will have some willingness to trade players from their farm system, with their track record of player acquisition and development hopefully allowing them to replenish whatever is moved. “We have to be confident that we can do a lot of the things that we did to put this team together, which wasn’t just through signing big free agents and things like that,” he said. “We need to be confident that we’re going to be able to do that again. That allows you to take on the mindset of being a little more aggressive, that things aren’t irreplaceable. Part of not being one player away is also not (thinking) one minor league player is going to determine our fate as a team moving forward.”

Arizona has a challenging schedule between now and the deadline, playing strong clubs like Atlanta, Cincinnati, Seattle and San Francisco, with a three-game set against St. Louis their only matchup against a club that’s currently below .500. Another losing streak could perhaps downgrade the club from “ultra-aggressive” to merely “aggressive,” but it seems as though fans of the club should expect some kind of additions regardless.

Wherever their comfort level lands in terms of what they are willing to part with will then have an impact on what they can acquire. Lucas Giolito and Jordan Montgomery are some of the more obvious trade candidates, though both of those are rentals. Pitchers with extra control like Aaron Civale or Paul Blackburn could also be available, though the extra control will also lead their current clubs to seek larger returns in trade talks.

Diamondbacks Sign First-Round Pick Tommy Troy

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The D-Backs announced the signings of 16 draftees this afternoon. Among the group putting pen to paper was 12th overall selection Tommy Troy. The Stanford product receives a $4.4MM signing bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (Twitter link).

That’s below the selection’s $5.04MM slot value, though that’s not uncommon for a college product. Troy checked in between 12th and 19th on pre-draft rankings from The Athletic, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. The 5’10” infielder is regarded as a polished college hitter with some pull-side power and the ability to stick somewhere on the infield. Scouting reports suggest he’s unlikely to stay at shortstop but could be an everyday second or third baseman based on a well-rounded profile.

The right-handed hitter had a strong showing with wood bats in the Cape Cod League during his pre-draft summer. He followed up with an excellent junior season for the Cardinal, hitting .394/.478/.699 with 17 home runs and steals apiece. Troy walked in 11.9% of his plate appearances while striking out 14.3% of the time.

Arizona shortstop Jordan Lawlar is the game’s #12 prospect at Baseball America. Troy joins him as a Top 100 player on BA’s updated list, checking in 87th.

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