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Mike Minor Likely To Throw For Teams Later This Month

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Free-agent lefty Mike Minor implied back in September that he was considering retirement following an injury-shortened 2022 campaign in Cincinnati. However, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports that Minor feels good after spending the offseason throwing in preparation for the 2023 season and is likely to host a throwing session for teams later this month. Minor had told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer back on Sept. 24, “I’m not closing the door, but it’s barely cracked,” when asked about whether he’d return for a 12th Major League season.

Minor, 35, was traded from the Royals to the Reds not long before the 2022 season but spent the first two months of the year on the injured list due to shoulder troubles. Following his activation in early June, he’d go on to make 19 starts for Cincinnati, but the season was generally a struggle. Minor’s 90.4 mph average fastball was a career-worst mark, and while his 8.8% walk rate was only slightly higher than the league average, it also represented the highest rate of the typically precise lefty’s career. Minor’s 16.7% strikeout rate, too was a career-worst. In his 98 innings with the Reds, Minor scuffled to a 6.06 ERA while allowing an average of 2.2 home runs per nine frames.

It was a far cry from Minor’s peak years, the last of which came in 2019 when he tossed 208 1/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball with the Rangers. Even as Minor’s bottom-line results suffered in 2020-21 (5.18 ERA), he maintained a sharp 23.2% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 10.9% swinging-strike rate. The Reds were surely intrigued by those traits when they acquired him, but each trended in the wrong direction during what now looks like it’ll be his lone season in Cincinnati.

Discouraging as the past three seasons have been for Minor, the lefty enjoyed a nice peak from 2011-19 when he pitched to a 3.82 ERA while showing the ability to miss bats and limit walks. Minor has long had a knack for suppressing hard contact, and even through all of last season’s struggles, the 88.2 mph average exit velocity he yielded and the 34.9% hard-hit rate were both lower than the respective league averages of 88.6 mph and 38.2%. Minor’s issue wasn’t so much an excess of hard contact as it was that when he did yield hard contact, it was particularly damaging.

Minor is one of a dwindling number of experienced big league starters left on the market for teams seeking rotation depth. Michael Wacha is perhaps the last remaining free-agent starter who could command a multi-year deal, but Minor joins the likes of Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda, Anibal Sanchez and Chase Anderson as seasoned alternatives who could be had on lower-risk arrangements.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former MLB Pitcher Brandon Beachy

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Over 1,500 players were taken in the 2008 MLB draft, and Indiana Wesleyan University third baseman and closer Brandon Beachy was not one of them.  Braves scout Gene Kerns signed him as an undrafted free agent for $20,000, and later remarked, “He’s just a young man with a lot of talent that no one discovered.”

After Beachy led the minors with a 1.73 ERA as a starting pitcher in 2010, he could no longer be ignored.  He got the call at age 24, and in his second big league start Beachy struck out nine in an outing against the Nationals.  He made the Braves’ NLDS roster against the Giants, but didn’t get into a game in that series.

Beachy broke camp in the Braves’ rotation in 2011 and had an excellent season.  He put up a 3.68 ERA in 25 starts, leading all of MLB in strikeout rate among those with at least 140 innings.  Beachy’s 169 punchouts set a Braves rookie record, until Julio Teheran topped it by one two years later and Spencer Strider flew past both of them last year.  And keep in mind, 2011 was a time when the average MLB starter had a 17.6 K%, as opposed to 21.6% in 2022.  Beachy put up a 28.6 K% that year, in his first full season.

Beachy was still riding high on June 16th, 2012, leading the Majors with a 2.00 ERA after 13 starts.  Unfortunately, at that point Beachy wound up needing Tommy John surgery.  Only 13 months later, Beachy was back on a Major League mound with Atlanta.  His ascent was again derailed when it was discovered he’d need a second Tommy John procedure the following spring.

Non-tendered by the Braves after 2014, Beachy signed a deal with the Dodgers in February 2015.  He made it back for a couple starts in July of 2015, but sadly, those would be the last of Beachy’s MLB career.  He made one appearance for the Arizona League Dodgers in 2016, and didn’t resurface again until signing with the independent league New Britain Bees in August 2018.  Beachy parlayed that into a minor league deal with the Giants in 2019.  He made one appearance for the Sugar Land Skeeters in 2020 before calling it quits at age 34.  As Beachy puts it in an email to MLBTR, “Fear of what was next led to a few comeback attempts (some indy ball and minors) I probably shouldn’t have made.”

Unfortunately, the realization around MLB that pitchers need more than 13 months to recover from Tommy John surgery came after Beachy first received the procedure.  His story serves as a reminder that a return to form is far from guaranteed after this serious surgery.

It was surprising that Beachy made it to the Majors in the first place, and then after he established himself it was surprising that he only made 48 career starts.  However, he can still say that at some point 11 or 12 years ago, he was one of the very best pitchers in MLB.  In 2011, Beachy punched out 10+ batters on three separate occasions.  And in 2012 against the Marlins, he authored a complete game, 122-pitch shutout.

Once one of the faces of the Braves franchise, Brandon is now into franchising in a different sense.  In explaining his post-playing career, Beachy says, “Franchising was for me. I could use the skills that I developed through a life in sports (hard work, self-motivation, resilience, teamwork and leadership) and apply them to a proven system to be successful.”  That led Brandon to a company called FranChoice, where he offers “a free service of educating other former players, and people of all walks of life too about franchising and then after getting to know them, match them with businesses that would be fits for them and their goals, guiding them through that process.”  You can check out Brandon’s LinkedIn page here.

Brandon chatted with MLBTR readers for nearly two hours today, regaling us with some fantastic baseball stories.  The one about his hijinks at Wrigley Field is a classic.  Brandon also discussed his former Braves teammates, his Tommy John experience, pitching against former stars of the game, and much more.  Read the transcript here.

If you’re a current or former MLB player, we’d love to have you on for a chat!  It’s quite easy to do, and you get to pick which questions to publish and answer.  Reach out if you’re interested!

The Opener: Giles, Arb Updates, Player Chat

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With Opening Day just 50 days away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Giles to hold workout for interested teams:

Right-hander Ken Giles is set to hold a showcase for interested teams this morning. If the workout goes well, Giles could join the likes of Michael Fulmer and Corey Knebel at the top of the pile of right-handed relief options remaining on the free agent market. Giles has pitched just eight innings since the start of the 2020 season thanks to Tommy John surgery and a tendon injury in his finger, but prior to those woes he was one of the best late-inning options in the game; in 2019, he posted a sterling 1.87 ERA, good for a 244 ERA+ and backed by a FIP of 2.27.

2. Arbitration Update

Arbitration hearings continue rolling in, with the Associated Press reporting that Rays reliever Colin Poche had his hearing yesterday. As is the case with Angels outfielder Hunter Renfroe, the result of that case is being held rather than immediately announced so as not to serve as a data point in pending cases for comparable players in the same service bracket. The AP notes that hearings are scheduled out through Feb. 17, with 17 cases yet unresolved. Some of those will likely result in multi-year deals — the Astros have had discussions with Kyle Tucker, new GM Dana Brown said this week — but many will go to trial. Among the most notable remaining names are Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez and Gio Urshela. A full list of the 33 players who exchanged figures with teams can be seen here.

3. Player Chat and MLBTR Chat today

MLBTR’s Player Chat series is set to continue today. Earlier this week, we hosted a chat with former MLB pitcher and longtime scout Tim Fortugno, the transcript of which you can read here. Today, we’re excited to welcome former starting pitcher Brandon Beachy. Beachy pitched for the Braves and Dodgers in his MLB career, which spanned from the 2010 season until the 2015 season. The best seasons of Beachy’s career were 2011-2012. Across those two seasons, he made 38 starts and threw 222 2/3 innings to solid results, posting a 3.07 ERA (127 ERA+) and 3.30 FIP. Beachy’s 2012 season in particular was highlighted by a May 17th complete game shutout against a Marlins lineup that featured Giancarlo Stanton and Hanley Ramirez. Overall for his career, Beachy posted a 3.36 ERA (116 ERA+) with a 3.41 FIP across 48 starts and 275 2/3 innings. Be sure to tune in today 10am CST for Beachy’s live chat!

Meanwhile, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting his weekly chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins. Readers who missed yesterday’s chat with Steve Adams can also check out that transcript here in the meantime.

Orioles Notes: Means, Stowers, Ownership

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The Orioles’ surprising second-half success came in spite of the loss of their top starter, as John Means was knocked out of action just two appearances into the year by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. That procedure occurred in late April, putting him a little more than nine months into his rehab. Means recently told reporters he’s “right on track” in that process, progressing to throwing from 140 feet off flat ground (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). He’s yet to begin throwing anything other than fastballs but indicated he’s likely to throw from a half-mound early in Spring Training.

A specific timetable for Means’ return to MLB action is unclear, as it’s obviously dependent on whether he can avoid setbacks as he further builds into a throwing program. He certainly won’t be ready for Opening Day but should factor into the mix at some point during the season. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week, Means’ eventual return will be a welcome development for a Baltimore rotation whose only present locks are Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson. The O’s have a number of quality strike-throwers to mix in at the back end but not many pitchers capable of missing bats at a high level. Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez is the exception, and the young righty could get a chance to carve out a season-opening rotation role as a rookie.

While Rodriguez has yet to make his MLB debut, outfielder Kyle Stowers did reach the majors briefly last year. The 25-year-old corner outfielder appeared in 34 games, hitting .253/.306/.418 with a trio of home runs over 98 plate appearances. It was a solid first impression on the heels of an excellent .264/.357/.527 showing through 407 trips to the plate with Triple-A Norfolk. The O’s have Austin Hays and Anthony Santander to man the corner outfield on most days, although the lefty-swinging Stowers should have a path to reps at designated hitter and/or off the bench as a pinch-hitter.

“I think there’s value in being someone that can (adjust), whether it’s being a spark plug in a pinch-hit at-bat or be ready to go when your name is called,” Stowers told reporters (including Kubatko). As to whether he’s on the MLB roster and where he’s playing, the Stanford product noted he’s “not the one who makes those decisions. All I can control is how I play and how hard I play, and the effort I put toward. … Just take care of everything I can control.“

While those kinds of roster battles will be significant stories for the club over the coming weeks, much of the recent attention has been on the organization’s ownership situation. In-fighting among the Angelos family led to lawsuits between Louis, John and Georgia Angelos over the past few months. Those were all resolved yesterday, when the sides agreed to dismiss all claims against one another as part of a confidential settlement.

Dan Connolly of the Athletic explores the fallout of that agreement, pointing out a settlement might pave the way for Louis Angelos to reassume more involvement in the franchise’s operations. The organization’s ownership structure has been the subject of plenty of recent attention, particularly as they negotiate with the Maryland Stadium Authority for a new lease agreement. With their current deal at Camden Yards set to expire after the 2023 campaign, the O’s declined an option for a five-year extension in search of a longer contract last week.

Along with the recent internal squabbling among the Angelos family, the O’s are still embroiled in litigation with the Nationals regarding television rights fees related to their shared Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. In 2019, an arbitrator ruled the network (of which the O’s are majority owner) owed the Nationals around $105MM in unpaid rights fees. MASN appealed that decision, and it has remained pending at the New York State Court of Appeals in the three years since then.

Connolly writes that oral arguments on that are scheduled for mid-March and echoes previous reporting Major League Baseball continues to pressure the franchises for a resolution. The uncertain rights figure has reportedly been the main stumbling block in the Lerner family’s exploration of a sale of the Nationals over the past nine-plus months.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Tejay Antone Receives PRP Injection For Flexor Strain, Will Start Season On Injured List

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Reds reliever Tejay Antone is not going to be ready for Opening Day, he announced this evening on Instagram (h/t to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The right-hander received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat a flexor strain in his forearm today and will have to shut down his throwing program for the time being.

Antone didn’t provide many specifics on his recovery, though it appears he’ll be out for an extended stretch. While he cautioned the issue was a “small, little strain, nothing crazy,” he concluded by noting he’ll be ready “for the playoff push in the second half.” If he’s indeed out until near or following the All-Star Break, it’ll be a significant hit to a Cincinnati bullpen that already looked thin.

The 29-year-old Antone was arguably the Reds’ best reliever from 2020-21. He combined for a 2.48 ERA over his first 69 MLB innings, striking out 32.3% of opponents with an above-average 48% grounder rate. His 10.8% walk percentage was higher than ideal, but the combination of missed bats and ground balls pushed him into high-leverage work by his second season. Antone collected three saves and held eight more leads over 23 appearances in 2021 but began battling forearm issues that June. He twice landed on the injured list before making brief returns, but a third IL stay culminated in August Tommy John surgery.

That was the second TJS procedure of Antone’s career, as he’d also gone under the knife in 2017. He spent all of last year on the injured list rehabbing and seemed on track to be ready for the start of the upcoming season. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reported last month Antone had been dealing with a forearm concern that was unrelated to his surgically repaired elbow ligament. While this flexor problem isn’t as serious as another Tommy John procedure would be, it’s a nevertheless disappointing development for a talented hurler whose past year and a half have been defined by injuries.

Alexis Díaz broke out as Cincinnati’s closer last season. He’ll be joined in high-leverage innings by Lucas Sims, who’s hoping to bounce back from an injury-wrecked 2022 campaign himself. Ground-ball specialist Reiver Sanmartin is probably the top left-hander in the group. Cincinnati will need some less heralded relievers to take steps forward as Díaz did last year. They haven’t made any MLB additions this offseason to a bullpen that ranked 28th in the league with a 4.72 ERA.

Antone has exactly three years of MLB service time. He and the Reds previously agreed to a $770K contract to avoid arbitration. He’ll continue to collect service while on the injured list and be eligible for arbitration twice more. He’s on track to hit free agency after the 2025 season.

The Free Agent Market Still Has A Handful Of Interesting Platoon Bats

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Free agency is slim pickings at this point, with very few potential everyday players still available. There are only 13 hitters who appeared in 100+ games last season who remain unsigned. Only ten of those names topped 400 plate appearances, and only three topped 500. Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus are the closest thing to surefire everyday players. Yuli Gurriel has been that throughout his MLB career but is headed into his age-39 season and coming off a poor 2022 showing. Given the quiet market, it seems unlikely he’ll be signed as anyone’s primary first baseman at this point.

That trio still has value to big league clubs, of course, and the free-agent market in general still has a handful of names who can be valuable part-time/bench pieces if deployed properly. Some of the following names have long been platooned in the big leagues, while others are perhaps aging their way into that more specialized type of role. Regardless, there are still some remaining names with a track record of doing damage in the proper platoon context. Let’s take a look at who’s left on the market that could still provide some offensive value in the right setting…

Versus Left-Handed Pitching

Robbie Grossman, OF

Grossman was an above-average bat in five of six seasons from 2016-21, with 2019 being the lone exception. He slipped to a .209/.310/.311 output in 477 plate appearances this past season between the Tigers and Braves, but he maintained his long track record of production against left-handed pitching.

The 2019 season — when Grossman didn’t produce much against anyone — is Grossman’s only full season since 2016 in which he wasn’t an unmitigated thorn in the side of lefties. He mashed southpaws at a .320/.436/.443 pace in 2022 and is a career .279/.377/.413 hitter against lefties. The switch-hitting Grossman has had productive stretches against righties, too, though he’s been inconsistent in that regard. He’s strictly a corner outfield/designated hitter option at this point, but he can clearly still do damage against southpaws.

Donovan Solano, INF:

Solano bounced around the infield as a utility option with the Marlins from 2012-15 and, after a brief nine-game look with the Yankees in 2016, fell off the MLB radar entirely until a 2019 resurgence in San Francisco. Solano came out of nowhere to hit .330/.360/.456 that year, and while much of that is attributable to a .409 BABIP he was never going to sustain, he’s remained an above-average hitter for three seasons now.

Much of that production has been a matter of Solano holding his own against righties while absolutely clobbering left-handed opponents. He’s posted a solid, albeit rather punchless .289/.342/.397 slash against righties since resurfacing with the Giants, but Solano has tattooed lefties at a .321/.363/.461 clip. It’s partially driven by a still-hefty .365 average on balls in play, but Solano strikes out noticeably less often and hits the ball considerably harder against lefties than he does righties. Solano has been primarily a second baseman/third baseman since returning, though he posted strong defensive marks in 215 innings at first base with the Reds last year. For the right team, he could be considered for everyday work, but he’d be an upgrade to quite a few benches around the league.

Yuli Gurriel, 1B:

Gurriel won a batting title and a Gold Glove in 2021, but the bottom dropped out on his 2022 season. He slashed just .242/.288/.360 this past season, generally mirroring his output from an ugly 2020 campaign.

Even with those dismal all-around numbers, though, Gurriel slashed a more palatable .265/.298/.441 against left-handed pitching — good for a 108 wRC+. Gurriel is a career .282/.333/.474 hitter against left-handed pitching, and as recently as 2021 he obliterated southpaws at a .326/.394/.530 pace (150 wRC+). Defensive metrics soured on Gurriel in 2022 as well, and there’s some obvious concern when a player in his late 30s declines this sharply. Still, he rarely strikes out (12.5% in ’22, 11.2% career) and has enough of a track record against lefties to think he can help a team in a part-time role. He’s been linked to the Twins, Astros and Marlins in recent weeks, though Miami has reportedly backed off on its efforts to sign him.

Versus Right-Handed Pitching

Tyler Naquin, OF

The 31-year-old Naquin split the 2022 season between the Reds and Mets, though both his role and his production declined following a trade from Cincinnati to Queens (even when weighting for the difference in park factors). The extent of the correlation (if any) between those two things can’t be accurately measured, but even with the dip in production post-trade, Naquin finished out the year with a solid .241/.300/.446 slash against righties.

Naquin is just a year removed from batting .283/.339/.514 against right-handed pitching, and he’s a career .274/.326/.468 hitter when holding the platoon advantage. Defensively, he’s best-suited for corner outfield work, although he logged 645 innings in center as recently as 2021. A team looking for an affordable lefty to plug into the outfield corners could do far worse than deploying Naquin as part of a platoon.

David Peralta, OF

Peralta logged the third-most plate appearances against righties of any remaining free agent last season (417) and was the most productive bat left on the market, by measure of wRC+ (116). He slashed .267/.329/.449 with 11 homers, 29 doubles and three triples in such situations, and he’s a career .294/.350/.486 hitter in such situations.

Peralta turned 35 in August, and his defensive grades — once universally above average — were more of a mixed bag in 2022. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at minus-5, whereas Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him with a plus-5 mark. The longtime Diamondback also saw his numbers crater following a trade to the Rays (.255/.317/.335, no homers in 180 plate appearances), which surely hasn’t helped his cause. Still, there’s little reason to think that stretch of 47 games firmly indicates that he can’t rebound, and the price to find out figures to be pretty light at this point.

Ben Gamel, OF

The 423 plate appearances Gamel logged in 2022 were the second-highest total of his career and his most since recording 550 trips to the plate with the 2017 Mariners. Gamel’s overall track record against right-handed pitching is that of a league-average hitter, although it’s skewed a bit by a pair of shaky seasons that are a few years in the rearview mirror.

In each of the past two seasons, Gamel’s 112 wRC+ against righties has indicated that he’s about 12% better than league-average when holding the platoon advantage. He’s batted .255/.351/.408 through 605 plate appearances in that time, walking at a huge 13.9% clip against a less-encouraging 24.3% strikeout rate. Gamel was a generally solid outfielder defender from 2018-20, but defensive metrics have soured on him as Statcast has increasingly panned his outfield jumps in recent years. He’s also seen his sprint speed decline (though it’s still in the 65th percentile) and his once-above-average arm strength dip to roughly league-average. Gamel was basically a replacement-level player in 2022, but if his defense bounces back at all, he can be a useful role player off the bench.

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There are certainly more names out there to consider. Catcher Gary Sanchez, for instance, has a solid career batting line against lefties but was well below-average against them in 2022 and actually hasn’t consistently hit southpaws over the past four years now. Edwin Rios has an above-average career line against lefties but in a relatively small sample, and his strikeout rates likely give teams some pause.

The aforementioned Andrus, conversely, was great against lefties in 2022 and has a decent track record against them, but he’ll probably be signed more for his glove and still seems like someone who could land a more regular role. Ditto, to a lesser extent, with regard to Jose Iglesias.

Profar hit both lefties and righties well in 2022 and remains without a team, perhaps due to a lofty asking price early on. Wherever he signs, it seems likely he’ll be in line for more regular work in the outfield, even if it’s at a lower rate than he anticipated earlier in the winter.

Other names might be conspicuous by their absence. Right-handed sluggers Luke Voit and Miguel Sano, however, both have better career numbers against righties than lefties — marginally so in the case of Sano but by a pretty wide gap with regard to Voit. Sano hasn’t had a productive season against lefties since 2019, while Voit saw each of his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage check in shy of .300 against lefties in 2022.

Astros, Kyle Tucker Have Discussed Extension

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The new Astros general manager Dana Brown recently chatted with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and was asked whether they have begun extension talks with some of their younger players such as Kyle Tucker. “Tucker, we’ve been in conversation,” Brown said. “Some of the stuff was started prior to me coming. We had some talks with Tucker, of course, because it’s coming up on the arbitration hearing.”

The fact that the club is interested in extending Tucker is hardly shocking. For one thing, it was reported back in May that the club had reached out to Tucker’s camp but didn’t get very far at that time. That they are still interested in such an arrangement makes perfect sense as Tucker has only continued to cement himself as one of the league’s best all-around players in the interim. He launched 30 home runs last year and stole 25 bases. His 9.7% walk rate and 15.6% strikeout rate were both better than league average, leading to a .257/.330/.478 batting line and 129 wRC+. His outfield glovework was ranked as above average by all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating.

All of that taken together allowed Tucker to produce 4.7 wins above replacement on the season, per the calculations of FanGraphs. That was a slight improvement over the 4.6 he posted the year before. When combined with his 1.7 fWAR from the shortened 2020 season, he’s tallied 11.1 over the past three years, placing him 16th among all position players in that time.

Of course, that excellent production means that he’s likely set himself up for some strong earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time this offseason, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a raise to a $5.6MM salary for 2023. He and the club didn’t agree to terms prior to the filing deadline, with Tucker submitting a figure of $7.5MM and the team at $5MM. The 26-year-old will be eligible for two further passes through the arb system in 2024 and 2025 before he’s slated to become a free agent, just a couple of months prior to his 29th birthday.

There haven’t been many lengthy extensions recently signed by position players in the 3-4 year service bracket, though there is one recent comparable in Sean Murphy. He is a catcher and two years older than Tucker, so it’s not an apple-to-apples comparison. However, he did produce 10.0 fWAR in the three seasons prior to agreeing to a six-year, $73MM deal with Atlanta in December, within range of Tucker’s 11.1 fWAR tally in that time. Moving up to the 4-5 year service class and we find another interesting comparison in Matt Olson. He produced 9.7 fWAR in the three seasons from 2019 to 2021 before signing an eight-year, $168MM extension with Atlanta prior to the 2022 campaign. He had earned $5MM in his first arbitration season with the A’s in 2021, which Tucker could potentially do as well, depending on the results of his hearing. Olson was two years older at that time than Tucker is now, as he was going into his age-28 campaign. Given Tucker’s youth and stronger overall results, he could plausibly ask for something topping Murphy’s guarantee right now and perhaps go beyond Olson next year. The huge gaps between those two deals highlights why Houston might want a deal done sooner rather than later.

For the Astros, their recent track record is mixed when it comes to their homegrown stars. George Springer and Carlos Correa reached free agency and signed elsewhere while Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez signed lengthy contracts to stick around. Brown, of course, just came over to the club from Atlanta, a club that has famously given out more extensions recently than any other. In addition to Olson and Murphy, they’ve also locked up Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II over the past few years. Perhaps Brown can bring that playbook with him to Houston, but it’s unclear if any of the recent talks have got the two sides close to any kind of agreement.

Astros Sign Bryan Garcia To Minor League Deal

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The Astros announced to reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that they have signed right-hander Bryan Garcia to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Garcia, 28 in April, joins just his second organization, as he’s spent his entire career with the Tigers up until this point. He got solid results in the shortened 2020 season, posting a 1.66 ERA over 26 relief appearances. However, his fortunes completely flipped the next year, with his ERA shooting up to 7.55 over 39 games in 2021.

2022 was a strange season for Garcia, as he started working in longer stints after previously working primarily as a single-inning reliever. In Triple-A, he made 11 starts and 28 relief appearances, logging 85 1/3 innings in that time with a 3.80 ERA. He also made four starts in the majors with a 3.54 ERA. He might have been quite fortunate to keep earned runs off the board in both cases. He struck out 19.4% of hitters in the minors and 20.2% in the majors, while walking opponents at a 9.6% clip in Triple-A and 11.9% rate in the bigs. His batting average on balls in play was .276 in the minors and .216 in the majors, while his strand rate was 78.9% in Triple-A and 83.3% in the show, with all of those numbers being on the fortunate side of average. That’s borne out by his 4.83 FIP with the Mud Hens and 5.28 mark with the Tigers.

It’s unclear if the Astros view him as a starter or a reliever, though he’ll serve as pitching depth either way. He’ll be competing with other experienced hurlers that will be in camp as non-roster invitees, such as Austin Davis and Ty Buttrey.

Extension Candidate: Pete Alonso

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The Mets hammered out a multi-year deal with one of their top arbitration-eligible players two weeks ago, guaranteeing Jeff McNeil $50MM to extend their window of control by as much as three seasons. General manager Billy Eppler predictably expressed openness to more deals of that nature. Of the other players on the roster, slugger Pete Alonso stands out as the most obvious candidate.

Alonso would certainly cost more than McNeil. He’s already racked up far greater earnings via the arbitration process and he’s nearly three years younger than his infield mate. While they’re each in the same service window — between four and five years of MLB time — Alonso’s in position to cash in to a much greater extent. If discussions between the Mets and his representatives at Apex Baseball get underway, there’s one obvious recent precedent to kick off discussions: division rival Matt Olson.

Within one day of acquiring Olson from the Athletics last spring, the Braves signed him to an eight-year, $162MM guarantee. The deal also came with what looks to be an affordable club option for a ninth season, an almost universal feature in Atlanta’s pre-free agency extensions. Olson’s nine months older than Alonso; he was entering his age-28 campaign last spring, as the Met is now. They obviously play the same position. Olson was in the same 4-5 year service bucket in which Alonso now finds himself, making for a direct comparison.

How do they align as players? Olson had a down season by his standards during his first year with Atlanta. The Braves couldn’t have known that at the time of his extension, however, so any comparison between the two has to isolate Olson’s production through 2021. At that time, he carried a career .252/.348/.511 line in just under 2400 plate appearances — offense that wRC+ calculated as 32 percentage points above league average after accounting for Oakland’s cavernous ballpark. Alonso has a bit under 2300 career trips to the dish and owns a .261/.349/.535 mark, with that production measured 38 points above par. The latter has a slight edge in power production, hitting home runs in around 6.47% of his career plate appearances against Olson’s nearly even 6% rate through 2021.

The power gap probably isn’t as significant as one might expect given Alonso’s status as a two-time Home Run Derby champion and his MLB-best 53 longballs as a rookie, though. Olson makes hard contact more consistently and hits the ball harder on average than Alonso does. Alonso has been a little better at translating his hard contact into home runs, though they’re each clearly elite power threats.

Both hitters have roughly average bat-to-ball skills. Olson carried a career 23.4% strikeout rate into the 2022 season; Alonso has fanned in 22.1% of his trips to the plate. Olson has a patient approach that gives him a slight edge in walks but it’s again a small gap. There’s also very little difference in their performance the year before hypothetical extension talks. Olson hit .271/.371/.540 with 39 homers and a 16.8% strikeout rate in 2021. Alonso’s coming off a .271/.352/.518 showing with 40 longballs and an 18.7% strikeout percentage. His on-base and slugging marks are a little behind Olson’s from the previous season, though that’s largely explainable by the league drop in offense last year. As measured by wRC+, Alonso’s offensive production was 43 points above par while Olson was 47 points better than average in ’21 — again, a minimal distinction.

Given their similarities as hitters, the Olson deal works as a strong starting point for gauging the terms it might take to keep Alonso. Olson has the advantage as a defender. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who’d gotten above-average grades from public metrics throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved crediting him as +34 runs compared to an average first base defender throughout his time in Oakland. Alonso’s glove isn’t as poor as some evaluators had worried during his prospect days, though public metrics paint him as a slightly below-average first baseman. He’s playable but doesn’t add the kind of value there Olson does.

There’s a reasonable debate as to whether Olson’s superior glove negates Alonso’s slight advantage as a power bat and makes him the better overall player. Alonso has a few financial advantages that might tip the scale in his favor in extension negotiations, however.

Alonso was in a better spot with regards to his final two arbitration years. He and the Mets have already agreed to a $14.5MM salary for the upcoming season; Olson had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $12MM salary for his second-to-last arbitration year. Considering those salaries escalate year-over-year based in large part on a player’s previous salary, Alonso likely would’ve had a similar edge for their final arbitration seasons. It’s not a huge difference but Alonso would likely have earned around $5-6MM more over his final two arbitration campaigns than Olson would have.

That’s not a factor for the would-be free agent years. Olson will be paid $22MM annually for the six free agent seasons he signed away. Considering Alonso’s a comparatively valuable all-around player, that’s a reasonable starting point. However, Alonso’s camp could get an edge from the spike in spending on star talent from this offseason. The best free agents generally surpassed market expectations. Rafael Devers, meanwhile, signed an extension that pays him $31.35MM for ten free agent seasons (though deferrals knocked its actual value to around $29.15MM).

Alonso isn’t likely to get to Devers money. The Red Sox slugger is two years younger, was a season closer to free agency and has more defensive value in his ability to play third base, at least in the short term. Still, the Devers deal is illustrative of the top of the market pushing up in the past 12 months — last spring, the Red Sox were reportedly pointing to Olson money as a comparable factor in talks with Devers but eventually went way beyond that — and Alonso’s camp could reasonably look for something a bit above the Olson average annual value in talks this spring.

It’s also at least worth considering how hard a bargain the Mets might try to drive in negotiations. Owner Steve Cohen and the front office have shown more willingness than any team the past two years to meet lofty asking prices to add star talent. That’s not universal (see: Jacob deGrom) but the Mets haven’t shown much fear of spending, even in the face of an astronomical luxury tax bill. The Braves have a high payroll but not one wildly different from the rest of the league, and this Atlanta front office has shown a knack for extending players at rates many outside observers find at or below market.

There’s room to tinker on the margins, likely to give Alonso the edge, though the Olson deal should be a starting point in any negotiations. Speculatively speaking, perhaps something in the range of eight years and $180.5MM (including this season’s $14.5MM salary) could be mutually agreeable. That’d tack on $166MM in new money for Alonso’s final arbitration season and six free agent years, running through his age-35 campaign. Estimating his final arbitration year around $22MM, it’d represent a $24MM average annual value for the six would-be free agent seasons. Alonso would move the extension market past a similar player in Olson, while the Mets would be able to keep another star in Queens for the foreseeable future.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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