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Poll: Can The Rockies Play .500 This Year?

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The Rockies nabbed a Wild Card spot in two straight years, getting into the postseason in 2017 and 2018. However, the past four years have been a struggle. They slipped to 71-91 in 2019, followed that up with a 26-34 showing in the shortened 2020 season and then won 74 and 68 games in the past two years.

Despite that rough slide, owner Dick Monfort is maintaining external optimism. “We have a lot of talent, a lot of good things are going to happen, and I think they are going to start happening this year, and I think we can play .500 ball,” he recently said.

Suddenly finding an extra 10-15 wins would likely have to come from internal improvements, as the roster hasn’t changed much relative to last year. Their most notable free agent departures included Carlos Estévez, José Iglesias, Chad Kuhl and Alex Colomé. One other name on that list was José Ureña, though he was eventually re-signed and will be back with the club this year. Garrett Hampson also departed the roster when he was non-tendered, as did Chad Smith and Connor Joe via small trades.

The Rockies have also made a few additions to the roster, of course, but mostly younger players and a few relievers. Infielder/outfielder Nolan Jones, who has 28 games of MLB experience, was acquired from the Guardians. Connor Seabold and his six career starts were acquired for cash considerations or a player to be named later after he was designated for assignment by the Red Sox. The bullpen got a few new faces when Brent Suter and Nick Mears were claimed off waivers and free agent Pierce Johnson was signed to a one-year deal.

Those changes will all have impacts, though none jump out as franchise-altering moves like the Kris Bryant signing from a year ago. A healthy Bryant is probably the club’s best chance at improving their fortunes, as he was only able to play 42 games last year. He mashed when on the field, hitting .306/.376/.475 for a wRC+ of 125, and the Rockies would surely love to have that kind of production over a larger sample.

The outfield mix will have holdovers in Charlie Blackmon, Yonathan Daza, Randal Grichuk but could also get a boost if Jones breaks out. He came up as a third base prospect but moved to the outfield since Cleveland had José Ramírez at the hot corner. The Rockies will likely keep him on the grass since they have Ryan McMahon at third. Jones has hit very well in the minors despite a high strikeout rate. In 655 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s been punched out at a 28.4% rate but drawn walks at a 13.7% clip, hit 22 home runs and stole 14 bases. His .252/.361/.443 slash line at that level amounts to a 117 wRC+. He didn’t quite reach that level of production in his first taste of the majors, but it was a very brief debut. Sean Bouchard could also be a factor here, as he hit .300/.404/.635 for a 150 wRC+ in Triple-A last year. He kept it going in a 27-game MLB debut by hitting .297/.454/.500 for a wRC+ of 158, though he won’t sustain a 21.6% walk rate or .404 batting average on balls in play.

On the infield, McMahon, C.J. Cron and Brendan Rodgers will still be around. The biggest change relative to last year will be that Iglesias has departed and prospect Ezequiel Tovar has seemingly been given the job. It’s an aggressive move given his youth and inexperience. He began last year in Double-A and crushed it, hitting .318/.386/.545 for a wRC+ of 153 over 66 games. A hip/groin injury kept him out of action for all of July and August, but the club promoted him to Triple-A when he was healthy in September. After just five games there, he got promoted to the big leagues for nine games as the season was winding down. Tovar is considered one of the top prospects in the league but he’s just 21 years old and has only 14 games played above the Double-A level.

Another X-factor on the infield could be Michael Toglia, who is primarily a first baseman though he’s also played a bit of right field. With Cron still under contract for one more year, he’s not being relied upon in the same way as Tovar, but he could force his way into more playing time or fill in for an injury. His MLB debut last year didn’t go well, but he hit 30 home runs in 114 minor league games for a batting line of .249/.341/.510 and a wRC+ of 124. Elehuris Montero could also be in play here, as the corner infielder hit .310/.392/.541 in Triple-A last year, though he also struggled in his first taste of the majors.

At the catcher position, Elias Díaz will be looking for a bounceback after his 18 home runs in 2021 were cut in half to nine last year. He also walked less and struck out more, leading to a .228/.281/.368 batting line and 67 wRC+, a drop from 91 the year before. His defense was also graded far worse, leading to a wide swing from posting 1.6 fWAR two years ago but -1.4 last year.

In the rotation, Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland will be back at the front, but it gets murky after that. Antonio Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, meaning he could return soon, but that remains to be seen. Ureña seems to have laid claim to another spot, though the last time he posted an ERA under 5.00 was 2018. Austin Gomber could be in the mix, though he posted a 5.56 ERA last year. Seabold has some good Triple-A results but has struggled in the majors thus far and will have to get acclimated to the Coors Field experience. Other options on the 40-man include Peter Lambert, Ryan Feltner, Ryan Rolison and Noah Davis.

In the bullpen, the Rockies will be without Estévez, who has been a quietly effective reliever of late. His triple-digit fastball helped him post a 3.94 ERA over the past two seasons, not too shabby for a guy who takes the mound at altitude half the time. Daniel Bard will still be present in the closer’s role, but the club will try to replace Estévez with Johnson, Suter, Mears and Dinelson Lamet, whom they grabbed off waivers in August of last year.

A few things will need to go right for the Rockies to make a huge jump in the win column. A healthy and productive season from Bryant would be great, as would a return to form from Díaz and a healthy Senzatela. Younger players like Tovar, Jones, Toglia, Montero and Bouchard taking steps forward would be a huge help. But the pitching staff has big question marks and there’s also the matter of what other clubs have done. The Padres have added Xander Bogaerts and various other players in order to build off their strong 2022. The Giants didn’t make a huge addition but added several strong players such as Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers. The Dodgers have been fairly quiet but are still loaded with talent and coming off a 111-win season. The Diamondbacks have tons of exciting young prospects and a big surge seems possible. 2023 will have a more balanced schedule, meaning the Rockies will play outside their division more often, but most American League teams are in good shape, as are the clubs in the NL East. The NL Central is seen by many as weaker, but the Cubs and Pirates have both made efforts to be better than they were in 2022.

What do you think? Is Monfort right? Can this club play .500 ball? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Mariners, Leonys Martin Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners are in agreement with outfielder Leonys Martín on a minor league contract, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. The Wasserman client will be in MLB camp as a non-roster invitee.

It’s the second Seattle stint for Martín, who spent parts of the 2016-17 seasons in the Pacific Northwest. The former campaign was one of the best of his career, as he stole 24 bases while hitting .247/.306/.378 across 143 games. Statcast’s Outs Above Average suggested he played Gold Glove caliber defense in center field, his calling card throughout his early run in the big leagues. Martín had previously spent three years as the primary center fielder for the Rangers, where his glove represented his best asset.

The lefty-hitting Martín never made much of an offensive impact, as low walk rates and a lack of power reduced his overall upside at the plate. He posted below-average hitting numbers throughout his career and carries a .244/.301/.367 line in just under 2800 trips to the dish. When he reached base, Martín rated as a plus baserunner. He twice topped 30 steals in a season and has taken 126 bags over parts of nine years.

Martín hasn’t played in the big leagues since struggling to a .199/.276/.343 showing in 65 games for the 2019 Indians. He went to Japan midway through that season, signing on with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball. The Cuban outfielder has spent the last three and a half years there, combining for a .220/.350/.461 line with 75 homers, an excellent 13.7% walk percentage but a lofty 25.3% strikeout rate over 1441 plate appearances.

After putting up an OPS north of .830 in each of his first three seasons with the Marines, Martín had a disappointing year in 2022. He’s coming off a .163/.293/.317 showing in 68 games. That marked a disappointing end to what had been a generally successful tenure in Japan.

Martín returns to the affiliated ranks in hopes of an MLB comeback. He’ll be 35 next month and presumably isn’t the excellent runner or defender he was at his peak. The M’s will give him a look as a depth outfielder to see if he’s still capable of playing solid defense up the middle. Julio Rodríguez obviously has the position locked down. Sam Haggerty, Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell can each cover center but are better suited for corner outfield work. Well-regarded prospect Cade Marlowe joins them on the 40-man roster and has yet to make his major league debut. It’s hard to envision Martín cracking the roster out of camp but he’d bring 17 years of professional experience to Triple-A Tacoma if he starts the season in the minors.

The Nationals’ Breakout Late-Career Rookie

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Very little went right for the Nationals in 2022. They limped to an MLB-worst 55-107 record but lost out on the first overall pick in the inaugural draft lottery. Their year was primarily defined by ownership uncertainty and the continuation of a rebuild they’d kicked off at the 2021 trade deadline — culminating in perhaps the biggest deadline blockbuster in recent memory.

That sell-off opened a spot on their 40-man roster. They plugged it by selecting the contract of minor league veteran first baseman Joey Meneses. While it was surely a life-changing moment for a 30-year-old who had played professionally for 12 seasons before receiving his big league call, that transaction didn’t generate much attention outside the nation’s capital. In all likelihood, the Nats’ front office wasn’t convinced Meneses would even hold that roster spot through the offseason.

Meneses instead seized his first MLB opportunity in a way no one would’ve anticipated. He popped 13 home runs and 14 doubles through his first 56 games, compiling a .324/.367/.563 line across 240 plate appearances. That offensive production was 56 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+. That tied for 12th among qualified hitters in that span, with Meneses placed right alongside a number of All-Stars and Silver Slugger winners.

It’s not entirely fair to say that production came out of nowhere. Meneses had been having a strong season for Triple-A Rochester, where he hit .286/.341/.489 with 20 longballs through 96 games. The right-handed hitter has typically performed well against minor league arms. That was often against younger competition, however. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility, that kept him from getting an MLB chance until last summer. Meneses holding his own offensively at the MLB level wouldn’t have been surprising, but the extent of his production was.

Meneses will certainly need more than two great months to demonstrate he’s capable of sustaining middle-of-the-order production over the long haul. His rookie year isn’t too dissimilar from the .342/.389/.613 line Frank Schwindel posted over 56 games as a 29-year-old rookie for the Cubs in 2021. Schwindel stumbled to a .229/.277/.358 mark in 75 games in year two and is headed to Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the upcoming season. Maintaining consistency over multiple years at the major league level is a challenge.

That said, Meneses couldn’t have drawn up a much better start. In addition to his excellent production, he demonstrated some impressive underlying marks. Meneses made contact on an above-average 78.9% of his swings, getting the bat on the ball against pitches both within and outside the strike zone. His plate discipline metrics were roughly average.

Most notably, he made consistent quality contact. Meneses hit the ball hard (an exit velocity above 95 MPH) on 47% of his batted balls. That ranked 42nd among 334 hitters with 150+ batted balls, per Statcast. He hit plenty of line drives and took the ball to all fields with regularity. Meneses isn’t likely to sustain a .371 batting average on balls in play over a full season, but his contact profile suggests that probably won’t regress all the way to the .290 league mark either.

The rebuilding Nationals are in position to give Meneses a chance to cement himself as a regular. Washington took a buy-low flier on Dom Smith to play first base this offseason, though the designated hitter role is still up for grabs. Jeimer Candelario could factor in there but seems likely to play regularly at third base after Carter Kieboom missed the entire 2022 season due to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Smith and Candelario themselves are far from sure things after struggling last year.

Meneses isn’t going to continue at last season’s level, but there’s room for his production to regress while remaining better than average. If he can mostly back up his early promise, he’d potentially be a useful trade chip for the Washington club. As a soon to be 31-year-old first baseman, he’s not going to be a long-term core piece coming out of the rebuild.

Another strong first half would make him an intriguing deadline target for a more immediate contender looking for offensive help. Even if he establishes himself as a permanent big leaguer, Meneses won’t reach arbitration until after the 2025 season. That affordability would be of obvious appeal to both low-budget franchises and bigger spenders that are approaching or into luxury tax territory.

Whether he can play his way into legitimate trade candidacy, Meneses makes for one of the better stories on the Washington roster. The Nats aren’t likely to win many games during the upcoming season, with the organization’s greater emphasis on the performance of individual players. Younger former top prospects like CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz are the players the front office and fanbase will be most focused on. There’s room on the margins for role players to perform well enough to net the club some future value in trade as well. Bounceback candidates like Smith, Candelario and Corey Dickerson fit a more traditional mold, though Meneses could be more interesting than any of those established veterans if he can build off a revelatory rookie showing.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates, Caleb Smith Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Pirates are signing left-hander Caleb Smith to a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation to Spring Training, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The Ballengee Group client had been non-tendered by the Diamondbacks at the start of the offseason.

Smith has spent the past two-plus seasons working as a swingman in the desert. Also a former Yankee and Marlin, the southpaw went from Miami to Arizona at the 2020 trade deadline in the deal that sent Starling Marte to Miami. He started three of four games for Arizona to close out the shortened season but worked primarily in long relief the next two years. Smith made 13 starts in 45 outings during the 2021 campaign and worked out of the bullpen for all but one of 44 appearances last summer.

In both years, the former 14th-round pick managed similar production. He allowed between four and five earned runs per nine innings in each, missing bats at a decent rate but struggling with both walks and home runs. Smith walked nearly 13% of opponents in each season with Arizona while allowing more than 1.5 home runs per nine.

That’s been a consistent theme throughout his big league career. Smith’s high-spin fastball generates a fair number of whiffs and infield pop-ups at the top of the strike zone, though that fly-ball approach has also translated into a decent number of round-trippers. Over parts of six big league campaigns, the 31-year-old has allowed 1.69 homers per nine en route to a 4.55 ERA.

Clubs have been continually intrigued by his ability to miss bats, however. He’s struck out just under a quarter of career opponents while generating swinging strikes on an above-average 12.2% of his offerings. Last year’s 21.5% strikeout rate represented a career low, though his swing-and-miss numbers on a per-pitch basis was right in line with his overall track record. The Pirates have one of the sport’s more favorable ballparks for pitchers, which could aid Smith in keeping the ball in the yard if he cracks the big league roster at any point.

Smith was diagnosed with a tear in the UCL of his throwing elbow last October. It wasn’t severe enough to necessitate Tommy John surgery, as he’s rehabbed the injury without going under the knife. The D-Backs didn’t provide any specifics on his recovery timetable, though the Pirates are sufficiently satisfied with the health of his elbow to bring him aboard.

Assuming he’s healthy enough to partake in Spring Training, Smith can battle for a bullpen job. Jarlín García is the only southpaw locked into the season-opening relief corps, though Rule 5 draftee Jose Hernandez will need to remain in the big league bullpen if the Pirates are intent on retaining his contractual rights.

Smith has been better against left-handed hitters than righties over the course of his career but not dramatically so. He profiles more as a long reliever or depth starter than as a situational matchup weapon. Smith has more than five years of MLB service time and can therefore refuse any minor league option, so if he cracks the MLB roster at any point, he’ll have to stick in the majors or be designated for assignment.

Kyle Tucker Loses Arbitration Hearing Against Astros

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Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker has lost his arbitration case, the Associated Press reports. He’ll be paid at the team’s filing rate of $5MM instead of the $7.5MM his camp had sought.

That $2.5MM gap was the largest of any player and team who had gone to an arbitration hearing this offseason. (The Blue Jays and Bo Bichette had an identical filing gap but agreed to a three-year contract to avoid the process this week). That’s in large part a reflection of Tucker’s status as a first-time eligible player, as the sides and panel couldn’t base their determination on any of his previous salaries.

The team’s filing rate was closer to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection of $5.6MM at the start of the offseason. The outfielder’s bid to beat that number came up short, although he’ll still collect one of the bigger salaries for any first-time eligible player. Only Dylan Cease ($5.7MM), Zac Gallen ($5.6MM) and Will Smith ($5.25MM) settled on a one-year deal at a higher rate among first-year players. Bichette’s deal guaranteed him $33.6MM over his three arbitration seasons; the specific financial breakdown is not yet known, though it’d seem likely he’ll make more than the $5MM for which the Blue Jays were set to file in the first season of that deal.

Tucker owns a .268/.335/.502 line in a little more than 1500 career plate appearances. He’s connected on 73 home runs, driven in 256 runs and stolen 53 bases. Nearly half of those steals came last season, when he went 25-29 on the basepaths. Tucker hit .257/.330/.478 with 30 homers and 107 RBI during his final season leading up to arbitration. He also won a Gold Glove for his excellent defense in right field, played in his first All-Star Game and received some down-ballot MVP support for the second consecutive season.

The arbitration loss means Tucker will be working from a lower platform salary than he’d hoped for the next couple years. The process is designed so that salaries escalate each season based on both the player’s salary in the prior year and his ongoing performance track record. Given Tucker’s consistent, well above-average production, he should be in position to bank solid raises for the next couple seasons — though those will start from a $5MM base level rather than his desired $7.5MM platform. He’s slated to go through the process twice more before qualifying for free agency during the 2025-26 offseason.

That could be more or less a moot point if Tucker and the Astros can work out a longer-term agreement. New general manager Dana Brown has already spoken of his desire to sign the star outfielder to a multi-year contract. Clearly, the sides couldn’t agree to terms before going into this week’s hearing, though that doesn’t preclude them from further negotiations this spring or next offseason.

The victory closes one of two arbitration cases for the Astros this winter. Starting pitcher Cristian Javier is set for a hearing (barring a multi-year deal of his own) in the coming days. The young righty is seeking a $3.5MM salary, while the club countered at $3MM.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Aaron Ashby Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day Due To Shoulder Fatigue

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FEBRUARY 9: Skipper Craig Counsell implied Ashby was unlikely to be ready for Opening Day when speaking with reporters this evening (via McCalvy). Noting that the current soreness was related to the issue that affected him late last summer, Counsell said the southpaw “had to take a pretty big step back as far as rest.”

FEBRUARY 8: Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby will be behind schedule this spring as he’s dealing with shoulder fatigue, general manager Matt Arnold announced today (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The team didn’t provide a timetable for when Ashby might be ready, but it’s a suboptimal start to the talented southpaw’s 2023 season.

Ashby, 24, opened the 2022 season in the Milwaukee bullpen, made a pair of spot starts in April and had forced his way into the rotation by late May. Through the season’s first two months, the 2018 fourth-rounder had pitched 40 innings of 2.70 ERA ball with a 29.8% strikeout rate.

After a shaky three-start showing in June, however, Ashby hit the injured list due to inflammation in his left forearm. He returned after a minimal two-week absence but was placed back on the 15-day IL in late August, this time due to inflammation in the same left shoulder where he’s now experiencing fatigue. Ashby did make it back to the mound in late September, when he tossed 11 innings with a 3.27 ERA and a 10-to-4 K/BB ratio in his final four appearances.

On the whole, Ashby’s first full big league season resulted in 107 1/3 innings of 4.44 ERA ball with a strong 26.5% strikeout rate, an elevated 9.9% walk rate that he’d surely like to pare back, and a massive 56.9% ground-ball rate. The Brewers, undeterred by Ashby’s June injury, signed the lefty to a five-year, $20.5MM contract extension in late July. The deal contains a pair of club options that can push the former top prospect’s guarantee to $40.5MM, plus a series of incentives and escalators that can bring the deal to a maximum of $53MM over a seven-year term.

Based on that investment, the Brewers clearly feel that Ashby can be a part of the team’s rotation over the long haul, but his current injury status clouds that outlook in the immediate future. Milwaukee already had a crowded rotation that might’ve left Ashby on the outside looking in, as Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer and veteran Wade Miley give the club a solid quintet on which to lean this year. Right-hander Adrian Houser gives them a sixth strong option, too, even with Ashby sidelined to begin camp.

Uncertainty surrounding Ashby makes the Brewers’ rotation depth all the more critical. After the club signed Miley, it seemed safe to wonder whether the out-of-options Houser might emerge as a trade candidate, given both his $3.6MM salary and his ostensible drop to seventh on the rotation depth chart. Such a scenario seems less likely now, although Milwaukee still has further depth options on the 40-man roster, including Bryse Wilson (also out of minor league options), Jason Alexander, Janson Junk, Ethan Small, Gus Varland and Tyson Miller. Non-roster pitchers in spring training include righty Colin Rea and prospect Robert Gasser, acquired from the Padres last July.

It’s also fair to wonder whether any questions surrounding Ashby’s shoulder will prompt the Brewers to look for some further left-handed help. If the plan was to begin the season with Ashby in the bullpen, thanks to the veteran quintet ahead of him on the rotation depth chart, then a potential trip to the injured list for Ashby leaves Hoby Milner as the Brewers’ only lefty in the bullpen. There are several notable lefty relievers available in free agency, however; Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Brad Hand, Will Smith and Zack Britton are among the many yet-unsigned relievers with considerable big league experience.

Padres Expected To Pursue Extension With Manny Machado

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The Padres already grabbed headlines earlier today by agreeing to an extension with Yu Darvish that runs through 2028. It seems the next order of business will be Manny Machado, with Dennis Lin of The Athletic reporting that the club is expected to explore a long-term deal with their third baseman prior to Opening Day. Machado’s current deal runs through 2028 but he can opt out after the upcoming campaign.

After many excellent seasons with the Orioles and a brief cameo with the Dodgers, Machado hit the open market before the 2019 season. The Padres ended up winning the bidding by signing him to a 10-year, $300MM contract, though one that afforded him the ability to opt out and return to free agency after the fifth year. The first season of the deal was a bit disappointing by Machado’s standards, as he hit .256/.334/.462 for a wRC+ of 109. He also had to play 37 games at shortstop while Fernando Tatis Jr. was on the injured list, which dragged down his defensive numbers on the season. Machado finished the year with 2.2 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs, still solid but a big drop from the 7.0 fWAR he posted the year prior.

Since then, however, he’s been largely back to his old self, with the most recent campaign arguably the best he’s ever had. He hit 32 home runs and stole nine bases in 2022, finishing the year with a .298/.366/.531 batting line and 152 wRC+. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating thought his glovework was subpar, but Machado posted eight Outs Above Average. His 7.4 fWAR was the highest tally of his career and trailed only Aaron Judge among all position players on the year. He finished second in the National League Most Valuable Player voting with Paul Goldschmidt taking the trophy.

If Machado’s 2023 campaign is even half as good as that, he should be looking at a fairly easy opt-out choice at the end of it. The original deal was structured evenly, with Machado getting a $20MM signing bonus and $10MM salary in 2019, with $30MM salaries in each season after. That means he currently has six years and $180MM remaining as of this moment, but will be down to five years and $150MM once he has to make his decision.

Machado is 30 years and will be 31 this winter, when he could theoretically be a free agent. That’s a different situation than when he was first on the open market as a 26-year-old, but a huge deal should still be attainable, especially when looking at the deals that star players have been signing lately. Judge is just about to turn 31 and secured himself a nine-year, $360MM deal that runs through his age-39 campaign. Trea Turner is about to turn 30 but got himself an 11-year, $300MM deal into his age-40 season. Carlos Correa had two separate deals scuttled by concerns over the long-term health of his ankle and still secured himself a $200MM guarantee over six years with four vesting options. Jacob deGrom is about to turn 35 and has missed significant time recently but still got $185MM over five years.

The Padres have shown that they’re not afraid to give out these kinds of deals. A couple of months ago, they gave 30-year-old Xander Bogaerts an 11-year, $280MM contract and just today agreed to keep Darvish around through his age-41 campaign. Keeping all that mind, an MVP-level talent like Machado should be able to easily find himself a guarantee larger than the five years and $150MM he’ll be sitting on at season’s end. If he were to opt out, he would arguably be the second-best free agent available in next winter’s class, behind only Shohei Ohtani. That potentially creates a situation where the ticking clock ratchets up the tension throughout the year and perhaps the club would prefer to get something done now in order to avoid that distraction.

The Padres don’t exactly have a clear long-term payroll, as Bogaerts is under contract through 2033 and Tatis 2034, but they’ve shown a clear willingness to be flexible in getting deals done when they want to. In the short term, they might have to think about the competitive balance tax, as they have been hovering around the $273MM third tier recently. If they finish the season above that line, they will not only pay higher tax rates but will also see their top pick in the 2024 draft bumped back by ten spots. Since the luxury tax is calculated by a contract’s average annual value, perhaps the Padres try to spread out a new deal in order to lower the CBT hit.

Whatever form the contract eventually takes, it seems the Padres would rather keep Machado around than see him dive back into the free agent waters. We shall find out in the next little while if they can get something done before Opening Day, which is now about seven weeks away.

The Cubs’ Third Base Options

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The Cubs have made a number of additions to their lineup, none more impactful than the signing of Dansby Swanson at shortstop. That pushed Nico Hoerner over to second base. Chicago also brought in Cody Bellinger to play center field, signed Tucker Barnhart to share time with Yan Gomes at catcher in place of Willson Contreras, and added Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer for the first base/designated hitter mix.

It was a dramatic overhaul, with the corner outfield tandem of Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki the only players whose positions haven’t seemed up in the air at any point. The other position the front office left untouched, third base, looks as if it’ll come down to a battle between a handful of internal options with the free agent market all but picked through. There are two players who have the clearest path to reps at the hot corner in the early going.

Patrick Wisdom

Wisdom has been the primary third baseman on Chicago’s north side for the last two seasons. He’s tallied just under 700 plate appearances at the position since the start of 2021, handily topping second-place Matt Duffy (204 PAs in 2021). The only other player with even 100+ trips to the dish as a third baseman, David Bote, lost his spot on the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason.

Signed to a minor league deal over the 2020-21 offseason (following a cup of coffee with the MLB club the year before), Wisdom has combined for 53 home runs and 41 doubles in 239 games over the last two years. He carries a .465 slugging percentage and .248 isolated power mark over 909 plate appearances, continually making an impact from a power perspective. The right-handed hitter has paired that with significant on-base concerns, however. He’s hit just .217 while reaching base at a below-average .301 rate. That’s mostly due to massive swing-and-miss in his game, as he’s gone down on strikes in 37% of his plate appearances. That’s the highest rate in the majors for any player with as much playing time, narrowly topping Joey Gallo’s 36.6% clip.

Wisdom’s power has been sufficient to manage a slightly above-average slash line in spite of the contact issues. That’s fine production, particularly when paired with the above-average defensive grades he managed in 2021. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average estimated he was well below average with the glove last season, however, leading both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference to value his 2022 campaign around one win above replacement.

The 31-year-old has proven he deserves a spot on an MLB roster and the Cubs have made out exceptionally well on their no-risk signing two years ago. Yet the on-base and defensive concerns suggest Wisdom might be better suited as a role-playing power bat who can rotate through all four corner positions off the bench than as an everyday third baseman. He’s been far better against lefties (.238/.329/.533) than against righties (.209/.290/.438) over the past two seasons.

Christopher Morel

If the Cubs were to scale back Wisdom’s playing time, Morel would seem to be the primary beneficiary. The 23-year-old made his major league debut last season and generally impressed, albeit with some of the same question marks facing Wisdom. Morel connected on 16 home runs, 19 doubles and four triples in just 435 trips to the plate. He posted an overall .235/.306/.433 line through his first 113 big league contests. That slightly topped Wisdom’s .207/.298/.426 showing from last season.

That said, Morel also struggled significantly to make contact. He struck out in 32.2% of his plate appearances. Perhaps more alarming was that he swung and missed at 18.1% of the pitches he saw. That was the sixth-highest rate in MLB (minimum 400 PAs), and those concerns became more pronounced down the stretch. Morel carried an impressive .266/.338/.477 line into the All-Star Break despite a 30.7% strikeout rate. In the second half, his strikeout percentage jumped to 34.2% and he limped to a .194/.269/.376 finish.

At age 23, Morel is certainly capable of taking a step forward as he gains experience against big league pitching. He’s long flashed promising power but posted higher than average strikeout totals throughout his time in the minors. Concerns about his bat-to-ball skills kept him from emerging as a top-tier prospect prior to his debut despite evaluators’ praise for his power potential, athleticism and arm strength. Morel’s an interesting player, but one whose approach could make him a volatile offensive performer. He had reverse platoon splits in 2022, hitting .190/.297/.300 against left-handers against a .251/.313/.470 mark versus righties. That’s too small a sample from which to glean meaningful conclusions, though Wisdom’s more traditional splits could point towards him getting a few more reps against left-handed arms than Morel will.

It’s a similar story on the other side of the ball. Morel played mostly infield in the minor leagues, with third base his primary position. The Cubs bounced him around the diamond at the MLB level but deployed him most often in center field, hoping his speed and arm strength would translate. DRS and Statcast agreed he was a below-average center fielder in spite of his athleticism, as his inexperience at the position was evident. He also drew lackluster marks in limited action on the left side of the infield, though the sample in that case was exceedingly small.

Other Options

While Wisdom and Morel seem the two likeliest candidates to battle for playing time, the Cubs have a few other infield options on the 40-man roster. Miles Mastrobuoni, 27, was acquired from the Rays at the start of the offseason. He has only eight MLB games under his belt but hit .300/.377/.469 with 16 homers and 23 stolen bases in 573 plate appearances with Triple-A Durham last year. He’s primarily been a second baseman in the minors but has experience everywhere on the diamond aside from first base and catcher. His left-handed bat would pair well with the righty-hitting Wisdom and Morel if skipper David Ross wanted to play matchups. Mastrobuoni mashed at a .315/.396/.497 clip while holding the platoon advantage in 2022.

Nick Madrigal was displaced by Hoerner’s move to second base. He had a dismal 2022 season, hitting just .249/.305/.282 in 59 games while thrice landing on the injured list thanks to a back strain and strains of both groins. Madrigal had started the previous season with a solid .305/.349/.425 showing for the White Sox before suffering a season-ending hamstring tear. He’s only ever played up the middle dating back to his time at Oregon State — primarily at the keystone — but third base might be the clearest path to getting his bat in the lineup if the front office is still intrigued by his elite bat-to-ball ability.

His 5’8″, 175-pound frame isn’t the build of a traditional third baseman and that’s been manifested in his below-average arm strength. Perhaps that’s untenable at third base, though the Cubs could at least consider getting him some work at the hot corner to expand his defensive flexibility. It’s also at least worth contemplating whether Hoerner could kick to third base if Madrigal earns everyday playing time but isn’t capable of manning the left side of the infield.

The Cubs also picked up Zach McKinstry from the Dodgers in last summer’s Chris Martin trade. The 27-year-old has just a .208/.269/.384 line in 121 big league games over the last three years. He got 171 trips to the plate for the Cubs down the stretch, hitting .206/.272/.361. McKinstry has the ability to play second, third and both corner outfield spots and is a .323/.401/.550 hitter in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. He’s out of minor league option years and has to stick on the active roster or be taken off the 40-man entirely. Given his lack of big league track record, he could find himself on the bubble — particularly if the Cubs want to give Mastrobuoni a lengthier look instead.

There are a handful of players behind this group on the depth chart who’ll be in camp as non-roster invitees. Bote, Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young all remain in the organization after clearing waivers in November. Sergio Alcántara signed a minor league deal this offseason, while former second-round pick Chase Strumpf got an MLB invite after hitting .234/.379/.461 with Double-A Tennessee.

———————-

While there are a few candidates who could play their way into consideration, it’d appear the third base job will be a battle between Wisdom and Morel to open the year. Both have minor league options remaining. The former has a more established big league track record, while the latter probably has greater upside but might also be more likely to post untenable numbers on both sides of the ball. They’re broadly similar as right-handed power bats with OBP concerns, though Morel has a little more defensive versatility if he’s relegated to a utility role.

Brown: Astros Pursuing Extensions With Multiple Core Players

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It’s been two weeks since the Astros tabbed now-former Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager, but Brown has wasted little time in embarking on extension talks with Houston’s core players. The GM acknowledged earlier this week that he’s had talks with Kyle Tucker’s camp in the run-up to Tucker’s arbitration hearing, but there are far more players under consideration, it seems.

Brown told reporters today that he’s held discussions not only with Tucker and his reps but also with the agents for right-hander Cristian Javier. Furthermore, the newly minted GM publicly expressed interest in extending third baseman Alex Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve (Twitter links, with video, via Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26). Both Bregman and Altuve are currently signed through 2024. Bregman told the media today that Brown and agent Scott Boras have already had conversations.

The Astros haven’t necessarily been shy about extensions under prior front office regimes, but it’s a change of pace to hear the team’s top baseball operations executive so candidly discuss such matters. Houston has, in recent years, brokered long-term deals with Bregman (five years, $100MM), Altuve (five years, $151MM), Yordan Alvarez (six years, $115MM) and Lance McCullers Jr. (five years, $85MM) before each reached free agency.

That said, the team hasn’t been quite so aggressive with players early in their pre-arbitration years — a recent hallmark of the Braves organization which Brown just departed. Outside of Altuve’s original four-year, $12.5MM extension, the Astros have generally waited until their players have accrued three or more years of service time, hence the heftier nature of the annual salaries on those previously mentioned long-term pacts. That, it seems, is something Brown endeavors to change (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

“I think [owner Jim Crane] and I are going to meet somewhere in the middle,” said Brown. “I’m more on the aggressive side of signing them, he may be more on the conservative side, but he’s very open to getting these players signed.” Brown also added that he’s told Crane to “fasten his seatbelt — it’s time.”

It’s likely music to the ears of Astros fans, who saw substantial roster turnover from the 2017 World Series team to the 2022 World Championship club. Bregman, Altuve, McCullers, Yuli Gurriel and Justin Verlander — who’s since departed via free agency — were the only players on both rosters. While that quintet eventually signed new contracts (Verlander opted out of his most recent deal to again test free agency; Gurriel took a one-year extension with a club option covering 2021-22), none of the team’s newly emerged core has put pen to paper on a long-term arrangement just yet.

Brown spoke with particular optimism regarding the progress made on a potential long-term deal with Javier, the 25-year-old right-hander who has emerged as one of the team’s best starting pitchers. Javier logged a career-high 148 2/3 innings this past season, notching an outstanding 2.54 ERA and fanning a massive 33.2% of his opponents against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. He’s controlled for another three seasons and, like Tucker, is working to avoid a looming arbitration hearing. Javier filed for a $3.5MM salary to the Astros’ counter of $3MM, but it seems there’s a decent chance the two parties work out a lengthier arrangement. “We feel really good about that one,” Brown stated.

Contract extensions for arbitration-eligible players like Javier tend to be based heavily on precedent, which at least provides some potential clues to where the numbers could eventually fall. Recent examples of long-term deals for pitchers with between three and four years of service time (Javier has three exactly), include Aaron Nola’s four-year, $45MM deal from 2019 (which contained a club option for a fifth season) and, more recently, Sandy Alcantara’s five-year, $56MM extension (with an option for a sixth season).

On a rate basis, Javier stacks up favorably to both Alcantara and Nola at the time of their respective extensions; he’s arguably been even better, with a lower ERA (3.05 to Nola’s 3.35 and Alcantara’s 3.49) and a considerably better strikeout rate (30.9% for Javier, 25.7% for Nola, 21.2% for Alcantara). However, both Nola and Alcantara had amassed vastly higher innings totals heading into their first arbitration seasons. Javier has just 304 1/3 career innings (partly due to ample time in the bullpen before a more permanent move to the rotation in 2022), whereas Alcantara had 487 1/3 innings and Nola had piled up a massive 569 frames.

That workload discrepancy is the primary reason that Javier’s projected $3.3MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) falls well shy of the $4.5MM at which Alcantara was projected prior to his extension and the $6.6MM at which Nola was projected. That’s not to say Javier can’t find a way to top the guarantees on either deal, but his camp would need to secure a larger AAV on the free-agent years or perhaps agree to a sixth guaranteed year in order to do so, as his arbitration seasons are inherently going to be valued at lesser rates than those recent comps.

Turning back to a broader look at today’s press conference, Brown didn’t tip his hand on every player with whom he plans to pursue a contract extension, though it’s easy enough to look up and down the roster and identify a few speculative candidates. Shortstop Jeremy Pena has just one year of MLB service under his belt. He’s two years from reaching arbitration and another five years from free agency. Lefty Framber Valdez and righty Luis Garcia, meanwhile, are three and four seasons away from reaching the open market, respectively. Looking to how the Braves operated, it also wouldn’t be a shock to see top prospects like Hunter Brown (0.89 ERA in a 20 1/3 inning MLB debut last year) approached about long-term arrangements fairly early on in their MLB tenures.

Not every overture to sign a player will be successful, of course, but Brown made clear that one of his philosophical beliefs about the job is to correctly identify core players early on and aggressively present scenarios intended to keep them with the club beyond their base six years of control.

“I want you guys to know if a guy walks out of here, it’s not going to be because we didn’t go after him aggressively,” said Brown. “We’re trying to sign players.”

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