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Archives for February 2023

The Opener: Position Players Report, Press Conference, Live Chat

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With just a few short days until Spring Training games begin, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Official report date for position players:

Today marks the official position player report date for 18 clubs. Many of those organizations will be having their first full team workouts of the spring today, and as was the case on official report dates for pitchers, there’s a chance that as players continue reporting to camp, as of yet unknown injuries reveal themselves. Of course, many players report to camp early, so several position players have been in camp for days or even weeks ahead of the official report date. The twelve clubs that don’t have their official report date for position players today have them tomorrow. Spring Training games begin later this week.

2. Cohen Press Conference

Per Tim Healey of Newsday Sports, Mets owner Steve Cohen will be holding a press conference this morning. Cohen made waves throughout the baseball world this winter as he was seemingly unbothered by the so-called “Cohen Tax” threshold of the luxury tax, blowing past the $293MM threshold in building a 2023 club with a payroll of nearly $374MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. Cohen’s willingness to spend far beyond what other owners have been willing to spend in the past appears to have been a factor in the creation of the league’s new “economic reform committee”, which has the stated goal of looking at ways to reduce revenue disparity between clubs, but could be a precursor to owners making an effort to institute a salary cap in the future.

3. MLBTR Chat with former scout Tim Kissner:

MLBTR occasionally hosts live chats where former players and other people from around the game of baseball take questions from readers. Today, we’re excited to be hosting Tim Kissner, a former scout with over two decades of experience in MLB. Kissner has been a member of the Guardians, Phillies, Cubs, and Mariners organizations during his career, and signed current big leaguers Travis d’Arnaud and perhaps most notably, Julio Rodriguez, during his time in the game. Be sure to tune in to the live chat at 10am CT to ask any questions you might have for Kissner and his wealth of experience.

John Henry Discusses Payroll, Offseason, “False Narrative” Around Red Sox

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Red Sox principal owner John Henry addressed several topics related to his team in e-mails with The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey and The Boston Sports Journal’s Sean McAdam, and in both Q&A responses, Henry pushed back against criticisms of the club’s offseason.

“There’s been a false narrative that we somehow stopped spending — completely unsupported by the facts — that we no longer sign free agents, that we are uninterested in or incapable of winning despite our track record….I don’t think anyone realizes there are 30 teams in these sports every year that are all doing everything they can to win,” Henry wrote in his response to McAdam.  “In a particular year some clubs are criticized because they aren’t ’going for it’ when they are going every single thing they can short of destroying their futures to win. You always have to keep an eye on the future.  And every team (maybe not the Mets) has a budget.  It’s so easy to fall as we did in 2022 to mediocrity.  We needed to make changes but we haven’t lost our way.”

In regards to Boston’s own budget, Henry told McCaffrey that the Red Sox weren’t going to increase spending into the $300MM range as response to how teams have operated this winter.  The Mets’ whopping $355MM projected payroll leads baseball, and the Yankees and Padres have also opened the checkbook to a large extent this winter, even if both teams are wary of hitting particular luxury-tax penalty tiers.

It has been a busy winter at Fenway Park, with a long list of notable players (i.e. Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill) departing in free agency.  Bloom has been quite active in adding replacements, with such players as Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, Adalberto Mondesi, and Joely Rodriguez among the notable names brought aboard in signings or trades.  In addition, the Red Sox also locked up a cornerstone piece in signing Rafael Devers to a massive extension that will keep the slugger in Beantown through the 2033 season.

Naturally, Henry pointed to the Devers deal as proof that the Red Sox were still open to extending their in-house stars, as well as making long-term commitments to players into their late 30’s.  “Clubs, fans, media can all wish players had fewer options and that clubs had unlimited budgets, but players — including those you most want to extend — are often going end up going to free agency,” Henry wrote to McAdam.  “Clubs need depth.  Every MLB club faces these issues and it isn’t something we enjoy.  I hated losing Xander as much as anyone on the planet, but players going to free agency isn’t a new phenomenon.  We are faced with difficult choices each offseason.”

With an estimated payroll of just under $193MM, the Red Sox are hardly pinching pennies, and yet that total represents a significant drop from their 2022 year-end payroll of around $221MM.  Boston’s luxury tax number is now down to roughly $217.8MM, under the $233MM threshold and also a reduction after the Red Sox just barely surpassed the tax line in 2022.  The front office’s decision to stay over the tax line last season drew plenty of criticism, as the Red Sox didn’t make the playoffs, and their status as Competitive Balance Tax payors cost them in terms of draft compensation for Bogaerts and Eovaldi.  Because the duo rejected qualifying offers, the Red Sox would’ve received compensatory picks sitting 61st and 62nd overall in the 2023 draft order.  Instead, those picks are 119th and 120th overall.

Henry also used the “false narrative” terminology in his response to McCaffrey, saying that Bogaerts’ decision to sign with the Padres was one of “the biggest factors” in some of the discontent expressed by Red Sox Nation.  In response to the widely-publicized incident of Henry, president Sam Kennedy, and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom being booed during the team’s Winter Weekend fan event, Henry seemed to imply that media negativity exaggerated the situation, rhetorically asking “did anyone report the standing ovation at the end?”

With all this in mind, Henry didn’t address or seemingly didn’t recognize the chief criticism most Boston fans have about the team’s offseason — not a lack of spending per se, but rather the nature of that spending.  Rather than pursue another major name to replace Bogaerts, the Red Sox instead spread their money around to multiple veteran players on short-term contracts.  The biggest deal to a new player went to Yoshida (an unknown quantity against MLB competition), and the size of Yoshida’s contract also drew surprised responses from multiple rival executives.

Time will soon tell if Bloom’s strategy has paid off, and obviously a lot of fan criticism will diminish if the Sox get back into contention in 2023.  Henry wrote in both e-mails that “no one was happy with” with the team’s 78-84 record last year left, including ownership.

Going into the new season, Henry feels “we are in much better shape than we were after 2021,” when the Red Sox advanced to the ALCS.  That year marked the one winning season of Bloom’s three-year tenure as chief baseball officer, but when asked by McAdam about Bloom’s job performance, Henry noted that “baseball operations is more than one person….So a better question is: how is the organization doing?”

“As I said, we haven’t gotten the kind of results you would have expected for the amount of resources deployed over the last four years with the exception of 2021.  We’ve been building depth, but we saw little depth last year in the major leagues.  You should see some depth this year and improvement.  We have had setbacks with injuries already this season, but we expect to be competitive.  We are at a different stage than the Yankees are, than Toronto this season….It will be interesting.”

Orioles CEO John Angelos Discusses Camden Lease, Ownership, Payroll, Extensions

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Orioles CEO/chairman John Angelos met with reporters (including The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz and Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com) today to discuss a wide range of topics regarding the franchise, its offseason moves, and the bigger-picture question of the Orioles’ long-term future in Baltimore.

To the latter subject, Angelos reiterated his family’s commitment to the ownership of the Orioles, saying “I would say that there’s not a plan to change the principal ownership or the managing partnership and there would be no reason to.”  While a new minority owner might be brought into the ownership group, Angelos noted that such a move wouldn’t necessarily be unusual, given that some of the original investors in the group “have transitioned out” in the 30 years since Peter Angelos (John’s father) first brought the franchise and become majority owner.

“It would be nice if we could attract strategic people who care about Baltimore, who care about the way we’re doing this now, who care about the example Camden Yards set and want to be part of it,” Angelos said.  “That’s not necessary or a requisite, but we’re open to it.  We have no plan to change or transition out of what we have today.”

Some of the questions surrounding the Orioles’ ownership situation were raised by a lawsuit filled by Louis Angelos (John’s brother), who raised the possibility that John and his mother Georgia could possibly sell the team, or move the Orioles to Tennessee.  Earlier this month, Louis’ lawsuit and the countersuit from Georgia Angelos were dropped, bringing an apparent end to a legal dispute.  Unsurprisingly, John didn’t get into specifics about the lawsuits, other than to say “those things are distractions, and it’s unfortunate whenever they arise, but all good things going forward now.”

Angelos noted his longstanding commitment to Baltimore and his desire to finalize a new, longer-term lease for the Orioles at Camden Yards.  The current lease is up after the 2023 season, since the O’s passed on their opportunity on February 1 to trigger a five-year lease extension.

Despite this ticking clock, Angelos has confidence that a new deal will be reached, saying that “the actual facility use agreement, renewing a 30-year-old document, that’s really a minor sidelight” to the Orioles’ larger plans for a more fully developed stadium-village type of project, given that Camden Yards is right next to M&T Bank Stadium, home of the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens.  The ideal would be a thriving downtown area that provides value to the city, state, and the franchise beyond just gamedays.

“I have no doubt that we will relatively rapidly move towards the renewal of the public-private partnership and I would be very disappointed if I’m not able to work with the governor and his team…to make that happen in the next six months. I’d love to have that as an All-Star break gift for everybody, really,” Angelos said.  “There’s just no there there other than we’re going to get that done.  That’s always been one of the things I committed to and I have no intention of not seeing that happen.  I know the governor and his folks are just as keen on it as we are.”

Making reference to himself as “here for the long haul” with the franchise, Angelos used the same terminology to describe GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde, implying some security with the contracts of both men.  While specifics weren’t mentioned, Angelos said Elias and Hyde’s current deals aren’t “expiring in a year or two years or anything like that.”

Since the Orioles usually don’t publicize contract terms, not much is known about the nature of either agreement.  For instance, Hyde initially signed a three-year deal as manager in December 2018, but he also inked an extension during the 2020-21 offseason — a fact that wasn’t reported until September 2021.  Elias was hired a month before Hyde, and while terms were never released about the GM’s contract, it is fair to speculate that he might have gotten a relatively lengthy deal (say, four years) considering the wide scope of the rebuild project the Orioles were on the verge of entering.  That said, Angelos’ comments hint that Elias might have signed an extension in the interim, keeping him in Baltimore through at least the 2025 season.

Locking up Elias and Hyde certainly seems like a no-brainer move given the progress the Orioles made in 2022.  The first three seasons of the Elias/Hyde rebuild resulted in non-competitive seasons, but the O’s were a very respectable 83-79 last season.  Star rookie Adley Rutschman has already established himself as a quality player, and Rutschman might be just the first of several top prospects the Orioles can hope can make a quick impact at the MLB level.

However, the immediate follow-up to this breakout season has been modest, since the O’s have had a relatively quiet offseason.  According to Roster Resource, the Orioles’ projected $63.4MM payroll for 2023 is essentially the same as their year-end figure from 2022, since Chris Davis finally came off the team’s books following last season.

Angelos didn’t close the door on increased spending in the future, saying “Could payroll be double or triple what it is?  Or could it be over 100 million?  Yeah.  We’re not there yet.  We have a very young team that’s overachieved and overperformed because of the great work of our baseball folks.”

“Payroll, I think there’s a range there that Mike and his team have to determine.  Do I have a role in that?  Really only to make sure their recommendations are properly funded.  We’re probably not going to have or is any other middle or small-market team going to have the payroll of the Mets or the Dodgers or even the Red Sox, certainly not the Yankees.  That’s not an Oriole thing.  That’s a small or middle-market team in this economic system.”

Citing other teams with notably lower payrolls, Angelos mentioned that the Guardians, Brewers, and Rays are teams that the O’s would like to emulate, since “we’re aiming for sustained success, and I think what you see in a place like Tampa, they have had sustained success….I would be disappointed if we’re not the next Tampa, which means being sustainably competitive and relevant.”

This might not be welcome news for Baltimore fans, who would certainly like to see their team become a regular contender but with the flexibility to spend at a much higher level than the Rays.  The Orioles’ spending fluctuated when Peter Angelos had day-to-day control over the team, though the O’s had top-10 payrolls as recently as 2016 and 2017.

Astros Notes: Altuve, Gage, McCullers

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Dana Brown’s first few weeks with the Astros has already seen the new general manager sign Cristian Javier to a five-year, $64MM contract extension, and more long-term deals seem to be on Brown’s radar in the near future.  Jose Altuve was one of several players cited by Brown as extension candidates, with the new GM making the particular point that the longtime second baseman “should be in Houston for life.”  This is music to Altuve’s ears, who told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that “it’s really good to hear that” from Brown.  “I hope to retire here, so I think we’re on the same page.”

Altuve has become a franchise icon over his 12 seasons with Houston, and has already signed one big-money extension with the club — a seven-year, $163.5MM deal that runs through the 2024 season.  A new contract could overwrite the last year or two of that previous deal, of course, or the Astros might simply look to tack a few more seasons onto Altuve’s existing pact.  2025 is Altuve’s age-35 season, yet there isn’t any sign of slowing down, considering that Altuve’s 164 wRC+ in 2022 was the best of his career.

More from the defending World Series champs….

  • The Astros claimed Matt Gage off waivers from the Blue Jays earlier this week, and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi adds some interesting details behind the transaction.  Gage will receive a split contract with a $770K salary in the majors and $170K in the minors, and the Astros included a $125K signing bonus.  The bonus was included in order to convince Gage to join the team, because Gage had the right to reject Houston’s claim and test free agency since the Jays placed him on release waivers rather than standard outright waivers.  Before offering the signing bonus, Brown first had to contact the league office to confirm that the unusual tactic was allowed in release waiver situations.
  • Manager Dusty Baker gave a positive update on Lance McCullers Jr. yesterday following the news that the righty had been temporarily shut down due to arm soreness.  Baker and Brown made similar statements today to FOX 26’s Mark Berman (Twitter links) and other reporters, with Brown noting that he is “not alarmed at all” by the “day-to-day” nature of McCullers’ issue.

AL Notes: Twins, LeMahieu, Means

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that right-handed prospect Jordan Balazovic will miss the start of Spring Training due to a broken jaw stemming from “an altercation away from the field.” A source with the team indicated to Hayes that Balazovic suffered the injury following a verbal altercation last Saturday, though Balazovic did not retaliate physically. Balazovic underwent surgery and is currently unavailable, though he could begin to play catch in seven to 10 days.

Balazovic came into the 2022 season viewed as a consensus top 100 prospect but struggled mightily with injuries and ineffectiveness last year. He was out until May 1 last year with a knee injury and then struggled to a 7.68 ERA in 72 2/3 minor league innings last year while pitching almost exclusively at the Triple-A level. Now it appears his 2023 is off to a rocky start of its own. Fortunately for Minnesota, the club has an impressive amount of starting pitching depth, with Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober all capable big league starters even with Chris Paddack set to spend most of the 2023 season on the injured list.

Elsewhere around the AL…

  • Sticking with the Twins, center fielder Byron Buxton and first baseman Alex Kirilloff are both in places the club is comfortable with health-wise at this point in the spring, according to Hayes. Buxton is fully recovered from last year’s knee surgery and is playing without limitations, while Kirilloff, Falvey notes, is behind most other hitters as the organization plans on taking things slowly with him following his second wrist surgery, which Hayes notes was particularly intensive. Both figure to be part of the Twins Opening Day lineup if healthy, though the Twins acquired Michael A. Taylor earlier this offseason in part as insurance in center if Buxton continues to struggle to stay healthy, while rumors of the clubs interest in a veteran, right-handed complement to Kirilloff at first base have percolated throughout the offseason.
  • Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu talked with reporters this morning, including Erik Boland of Newsday Sports and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. LeMahieu noted that he is at “100 percent” as he enters camp this spring, able to play with no limitations. In addition, LeMahieu says he’s excited to play in a utility role for the Yankees this season. With Anthony Rizzo at first base and Gleyber Torres at second, while Oswald Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa all expected to mix and match at shortstop and with Josh Donaldson at third base, at least until top prospect Anthony Volpe is ready to contribute, LeMahieu figures to pick up playing time at each of first base, second base, and third base this season. LeMahieu played second base almost exclusively prior to signing with the Yankees ahead of the 2019 season, but since then has moved around the infield more often, racking up 872 innings of work at first base and 1,171 innings at third base in a Yankees uniform.
  • While Orioles left-hander John Means won’t factor into the Baltimore Opening Day rotation, he certainly seems to be on the right track to have an impact on the club at some point this season. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASN, that means will begin throwing off a half mound sometime in the coming week. Means has had the look of a solid mid-rotation starter since taking on a full-time role in 2019, pitching to a 3.72 ERA (124 ERA+) in 353 1/3 innings over that time while earning an All Star appearance and finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year voting for his 2019 season, where he posted a 3.60 ERA (131 ERA+) in 155 innings of work. Whenever Means is ready to return, he’ll be a welcome addition to a rotation that saw Kyle Gibson replace outgoing veteran righty Jordan Lyles and added lefty Cole Irvin in a trade with Oakland this offseason.

NL Central Notes: Helsley, Reds, Stephenson

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Ahead of their victory over Ryan Helsley in an arbitration hearing, the Cardinals reportedly discussed a multi-year deal with the right-hander, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Woo notes that the sides were far apart, with the biggest issue being Helsley’s durability. As Woo notes, the Cardinals were concerned with Helsley’s rarely pitching on back-to-back days last year, while Helsley’s camp pointed out that he frequently went multiple innings during appearances as an explanation for that.

Helsley pitched on back-to-back days eight times in 2022, with eighteen of his 54 appearances lasting longer than 1.0 IP, though just nine of his appearances involved pitch counts greater than 25. Whatever one makes of his durability, however, Helsley certainly turned in a dominant 2022 season as he pitched to a sterling 1.25 ERA good for a 306 ERA+, meaning he was more than three times more effective than the league average pitcher in 2022. That performance was backed by a strong 2.34 FIP thanks to Helsley’s fantastic 39.3% strikeout rate and solid 8.4% walk rate. His K-BB% of 31 ranked fourth best in the majors last year among those with at least 60 innings of work.

For his part, Helsley told reporters that there were “no hard feelings” between himself and the organization, though he noted that the arbitration process was a tough one and that he and other players “wish it was a little different.”

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson will likely see more time off from his duties behind the plate this year, manager David Bell tells reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Bell plans for Stephenson to catch around 65 games this season, with about 80 games split between the DH slot and first base, allowing him to play around 140-50 games this season. Stephenson was limited to just 50 games and 183 plate appearances in 2022 due to injuries, but he hit well in those appearances, slashing .319/.372/.484, good for a wRC+ of 134. That overall line was likely helped by an inflated .409 BABIP, but as a career 119 wRC+ hitter, Stephenson still figures to be a key cog in the Reds lineup in 2023 as long as he can stay healthy. The Reds are no doubt hoping that less time behind the plate will help Stephenson stay on the field this year, while still allowing him to primarily be a catcher. The Reds expect to roster three catchers headed into Opening Day, with Curt Casali and Luke Maile both signed to big league deals.
  • Sticking with the Reds, Bell tells reporters, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, that his hope is to have more than one left-handed reliever in his bullpen this year. Reiver Sanmartin is the only lefty currently expected to be part of Cincinnati’s Opening Day bullpen, coming off a difficult season where he posted a 6.32 ERA (71 ERA+) in 57 innings with the big league club. Two potential options to join Sanmartin in the bullpen this year are Daniel Norris and Alex Young, both of whom are in camp on non-roster invitations. Norris struggled in 2022, posting a 5.22 ERA (76 ERA+) in 58 2/3 innings split between the Cubs and the Tigers last year. Young, however, found success in 2022 pitching for the Guardians and Giants. The lefty posted a 2.36 ERA (175 ERA+) with a 2.89 FIP in 26 2/3 innings, almost all of which came in San Francisco.

MLB Creates Economic Reform Committee

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One year after a tense period of CBA negotiations between MLB and it players that resulted in a lockout and a delay to the start of the 2022 season, it appears the league is already preparing for the next round of negotiations. According to Evan Drellich of The Athletic, the commissioner’s office has formed what they’re calling an economic reform committee chaired by Dodgers chairman Mark Walter. Drellich reports that Tigers chairman Chris Ilitch, Red Sox principle owner John Henry, and Rockies chairman Dick Monfort are among other members of the committee of franchise owners. The current CBA is set to expire following the 2026 season.

As Drellich notes, the impending bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, owner of the Bally Sports networks that hold the TV distribution rights of 14 MLB teams, appears to be a catalyst for the creation of this committee. Should that bankruptcy indeed come to pass, it would open the door for MLB to begin work on a league-wide streaming service free from blackouts. But according to Manfred, discussions of such a path have brought about concerns about disparity between the revenues of clubs:

“We have businesses that are literally not similar in terms of the overall revenue that they’re generating.” Manfred tells Drellich, “And to the extent that you could find a new distribution model that actually helped on that disparity side, that would be the daily double. So people are having conversations that haven’t been had in baseball, and it’s really been owners talking to owners, which is a good thing.”

As Drellich points out, the financials of most MLB clubs are not public and the new committee has no plans to produce a league-wide financial report, making it impossible to verify most claims related to revenue. But Drellich reports that concerns about revenue disparity have been exacerbated by the willingness of Mets owner Steve Cohen to put up record payrolls that dwarf those of other clubs. Per RosterResource, the Mets 2023 payroll for luxury tax purposes currently sits at almost $374 million, and that’s even after the club’s bid to land Carlos Correa on a 12-year, $315 million contract fell through due to concerns about Correa’s physical.

Drellich quotes an industry source as saying that “[Small market clubs] demand everything’s got to change… The whole idea is to basically come up with a system that gets to a salary cap.”

For his part, Manfred claims that the league has not “even begun to think about where we’re going to be the next go-around” of collective bargaining negotiations, but Drellich notes that other quotes from the commissioner indicate the proposal of a hard-cap could be on the horizon:

“When I talk about a more national product, sort of the thought there is that a more national product produces more centrally shared revenue… which, in turn, we hope, would reduce payroll disparities. At various times, we have talked and proposed, including in the last round, about direct payroll regulation, in addition to that, having a minimum payroll… We remain open to those sorts of solutions. Obviously, we’re a long way from the next round of bargaining, but there are ways to get at it.”

Even if the league has interest in pursuing a salary cap in future CBA negotiations, plenty of obstacles remain. The MLBPA, which Drellich reports declined to comment on the league’s new committee, has of course staunchly stood against a salary cap for decades. Drellich also notes that teams likely disagree as to where a hypothetical cap and floor would be set. Still, this committee serves as a reminder that, even with the lockout in the past and a new agreement in place that should keep labor peace for at least the next four seasons, more difficult negotiations remain on the horizon, both between owners themselves and between the league and its players.

Latest On Padres, Manny Machado

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12:29pm: A source tells MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that the report of Machado seeking a 10-year, $400 million extension is incorrect.  It is not known specifically what Machado is seeking, or whether his camp made a counteroffer to the Padres’ offer to add five years and $105MM to his existing contract.

With Machado’s February 16 deadline having passed, it seems his impending return to the free agent market will be a storyline throughout this highly anticipated Padres season.

10:19am: Padres and third baseman Manny Machado had some extension talks recently, to try to prevent him from opting out of his contract at the end of this season. Reports yesterday indicated the club was willing to tack an extra five years and $105MM to his current deal, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that was $145MM short of his asking price.

Machado originally signed a ten-year, $300MM deal with the Padres that affords him the opportunity to opt out midway through, after the fifth season. He will have five years and $150MM remaining when that opportunity rolls around this fall. Given that he’s played at MVP-caliber levels, especially last year, he could certainly find a guarantee larger than that on the open market. It’s long seemed like he would lean towards triggering that opt-out and recently admitted that he does indeed plan to do so. With the extra five years and $105MM, the club was effectively offering him a ten-year, $255MM deal starting with 2024. Nightengale reports that Machado’s camp was seeking $400MM over that same ten-year stretch, or an extra $250MM on top of his current deal.

Given that massive gap between the two sides, it’s not surprising that a deal didn’t come together. Aaron Judge was coming off one of the best seasons in recent history and earned himself a $360MM contract this offseason, one of the largest deals ever. That Machado and his reps are setting their sights above that range is quite ambitious, but also understandable. The player has the security of knowing that he has that $150MM secured, even if he should suffer some kind of worst-case scenario such as a career-altering injury this year. That gives him the leverage to set a really high asking price since driving a hard bargain right now doesn’t create any risk of coming up empty-handed.

For the Padres, it’s not surprising that they balked at such an ask. They’ve been quite aggressive in recent years, including their previous deal with Machado, their $340MM extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., $280MM deal with Xander Bogaerts and others. However, the kind of deal that Machado was seeking would have been on another level.

In addition to the straightforward cash dealings to consider, they also have the luxury tax to think about. It was recently reported that the club’s competitive balance tax calculation places them narrowly below the third tier of $273MM, with recent deals for players like Michael Wacha and Yu Darvish intentionally structured in ways that lower their respective tax hits. Going over that line would lead to increased taxation as well as their top pick in the 2024 draft being dropped by ten slots.

The CBT is calculated by the average annual value of a deal, not a player’s salary in a given season. Machado’s current deal comes with a $30MM hit but the extension he sought would effectively turn the contract into a $550 deal over 15 years for tax purposes, combining the $400MM he sought for the future and the $150MM that he will have earned at the end of 2023. That would increase his tax hit to $36.67MM, adding to the club’s tax hit and surely bumping them over that threshold.

Since Machado’s camp reportedly set a deadline of February 16 for contract talks, it seems that a deal won’t be coming together at this time. It’s always possible that the Padres come back with an offer strong enough to make him reconsider that position, but given their tax situation, it seems that things are aligned for Machado to play out the season and hit the open market again. He would be one of the top free agents in the class alongside players like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Nola. The Padres could always re-sign him at that point, but they will surely have competition from other clubs around the league.

Machado’s tenure with the club has been largely successful. After not qualifying for the postseason since 2006, they’ve been there twice in the past three years. Machado launched 32 home runs last year and hit .298/.366/.531 for a wRC+ of 152. He produced 7.4 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and came in second in the National League Most Valuable Player voting, trailing only Paul Goldschmidt. They have been aggressive this winter in adding free agents and seem poised for another strong season in 2023, but whether they can keep their star third baseman around beyond that remains to be seen.

Reds Sign Chase Anderson To Minor League Deal

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The Reds are signing a minor league deal with right-hander Chase Anderson, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Anderson will not receive an invitation to major league camp.

Anderson, 35, spent most of last year in Triple-A, signing minor league deals with the Tigers, Rays and then Reds. He made 16 starts and 11 relief appearances at that level, posting a 4.50 ERA over 80 innings. He struck out 20.9% of batters faced and walked 8.4% of them.

The Reds selected him to their major league roster in August and he tossed 24 innings over nine appearances for them down the stretch. His 6.38 ERA in that time certainly wasn’t pretty, but it’s possible he deserved better than that, as he struck out 22.3% of batters faced and got grounders at a strong 51.6% clip. His 14.6% walk rate was on the high side but his 55.2% strand rate likely played a role in adding some earned runs to his ledger, as his 5.07 FIP and 4.77 SIERA suggest.

Anderson spent many years as an effective starter for the Brewers but things went sideways for him in 2020 when with the Blue Jays. He posted a 7.22 ERA that year and then a 6.75 with the Phillies in 2021. He’ll look to get back on track with a Reds team that doesn’t have much certainty in its pitching staff. The rotation looks to be fronted by three guys who made their debuts last year in Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. They should be followed by Luke Weaver and Luis Cessa, who have been around a bit longer but Cessa’s had more success as a reliever and Weaver is a few years removed from his last stint as an effective starter. Other options on the roster include Connor Overton, Justin Dunn and Brandon Williamson. The bullpen is headlined by Alexis Díaz, Lucas Sims, Reiver Sanmartin and Buck Farmer but there’s not much certainty beyond that group.

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