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Archives for January 2023

The Opener: Signings, Tigers, Mariners

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With five weeks left until Spring Training begins, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today throughout the baseball world:

1. Reported signings that could be made official

In one of last week’s Openers, we discussed three signings that could be made official in the coming days: Corey Kluber with the Red Sox, Evan Longoria with the Diamondbacks, and Wade Miley with the Brewers. Only Longoria’s signing has been made official to this point, with right-hander Edwin Uceta getting DFA’d in the corresponding move. An official announcement and corresponding move should still be in the works for both Kluber and Miley. In addition, two other deals from last week that could be made official in the coming days are the one-year, $5MM deal between Arizona and Zach Davies and the agreement between the Cubs and Eric Hosmer. Both Arizona and Chicago will need to make a corresponding move to clear 40-man roster space in order to add Davies and Hosmer, respectively.

2. What’s next for the Tigers?

This weekend’s five-player deal that sent Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens to Philadelphia in exchange for Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, and Donny Sands is the biggest move of Detroit’s offseason to this point. The Tigers addressed the most significant holes on their roster with this deal, as Maton can take the lion’s share of starts a third base, filling a hole left by the non-tender of Jeimer Candelario earlier this offseason. Vierling, meanwhile, serves as a much-needed righty complement to Detroit’s all-lefty outfield unit of Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene, Austin Meadows, and Kerry Carpenter. Of that group, only Greene posted productive numbers against southpaws (.303/.353/.394, 116 wRC+). So, what’s next for the Tigers? They certainly could make room for another bat, or even a rotation arm, if a deal arises that interests them.

The most pressing issue at this point, however, seems to be restocking the bullpen. Detroit’s relief corps has lost both Soto and Joe Jimenez to sell-side trades this offseason while also losing Wily Peralta and Andrew Chafin to free agency. That’s 210 1/3 innings of quality relief work in 2022 that won’t be returning in 2023, leaving the bullpen as the clearest place left where president of baseball operations Scott Harris can add to the club.

3. Will the Mariners keep adding?

With the addition of outfielder AJ Pollock on a one-year, $7MM deal, the Mariners have a platoon partner for former top prospect Jarred Kelenic if he succeeds in the majors in 2023 or some insurance in the outfield if Kelenic continues to struggle. Even with that pair in left, Julio Rodriguez in center and Teoscar Hernandez in right, there’s still room for another outfield-capable bat. Acquiring another outfielder would allow Hernandez to spend more time at designated hitter and ideally give manager Scott Servais another above-average bat to rotate through the outfield and DH mix. As it stands, the Mariners’ DH spot would likely be used for Hernandez and the occasional rest day for other regulars, which would allow names like Cooper Hummel, Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty to get into the lineup elsewhere.

Liam Hendriks To Begin Treatment For Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma

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White Sox closer Liam Hendriks announced on his Instagram page tonight that he will be starting treatment Monday for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

“Hearing the word ’cancer’ came as a shock to my wife and I, as it does to millions of families each year.  However, I am resolved to embrace the fight and overcome this new challenge with the same determination I have used when facing other obstacles in my life,” Hendriks wrote.  “My treatment begins tomorrow, and I am confident that I will make a full recovery and be back on the mound as soon as possible.  I know with the support of my wife, my family, my teammates, and the Chicago White Sox organization, along with the treatment and care from my doctors, I will get through this.”

White Sox GM Rick Hahn also released a statement on behalf of the team: “Our thoughts and reactions at this time are for Liam the person, not Liam the baseball player.  I know the entire Chicago White Sox organization, our staff, his teammates, and certainly White Sox fans, will rally in support of Liam and Kristi during the coming months.  Knowing everyone involved, especially Liam, we are optimistic he will pitch again for the White Sox as soon as viable.  In the meantime, we all will do everything in our power to support our teammate and his family as they face this challenge, while also respecting their privacy.  We do not expect to have any updates on Liam’s playing status prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Hendriks celebrates his 34th birthday in February, and the native of Perth, Australia is coming off his third All-Star season.  Beginning his big league career with the Twins in 2011, it took Hendriks until 2015 (as a member of the Blue Jays) to really break out, which kicked off a run of four solid but unspectacular seasons of bullpen work.  In 2019, however, Hendriks took things to another level, as he has emerged as one of the game’s best closers after posting a 2.26 ERA, 38.8% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate over 239 innings since start of the 2019 campaign.

All three of Hendriks’ All-Star selections have come in that dominant four-year stretch, and it led to a big free agent payday during the 2020-21 offseason.  Hendriks is two seasons into a three-year, $54MM deal with the White Sox that includes a unique $15MM club option for 2024 that also carries a $15MM buyout (which would be covered in deferred payments if the Sox did decline the option).

Beyond his success on the field, Hendriks is also a widely popular player, beloved by teammates and fans alike.  Today’s news has already started an outpouring of support for Hendriks on social media, and we at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in wishing him a full recovery.

Hahn’s statement provided some rough idea of a timeline for how long Hendriks might be sidelined, though obviously the situation is very fluid.  Pitching is naturally just about the last thing on Hendriks’ mind at the moment, and for the White Sox as well, simply getting their friend and teammate healthy is infinitely more important than roster impact.

There is no easy way to replace Hendriks in Chicago’s bullpen, as while Kendall Graveman is probably the likeliest candidate to step in as closer, bumping everyone up the depth chart leaves the White Sox relief corps thinner as a whole.  There had been some trade buzz surrounding Hendriks earlier this winter, as the Mets and other teams had interest in adding a high-end reliever, and there was some thought that the White Sox could move Hendriks (and his contract) as a way to address other roster needs without expanding the budget.

Make Or Break Year: Jack Flaherty

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Jack Flaherty posted a 3.01 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate, and 8.2% walk rate over 347 1/3 innings during the 2018-19 seasons, finishing fifth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018 and then fourth in Cy Young Award voting in 2019.  After coming up through the Cardinals’ farm system as a top-100 ranked prospect, it certainly looked like Flaherty was living up to that potential, and establishing himself as a frontline pitcher in St. Louis heading into the next decade.

Since then, however, things haven’t gone nearly as smoothly.  He was one of several Cardinals sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, missing four weeks of an already shortened season and finishing with a 4.91 ERA over 40 1/3 innings.  Unfortunately, abbreviated seasons became the trend for Flaherty, as he has tossed only 114 1/3 innings over 26 games since the start of the 2021 campaign.

An oblique strain and a shoulder strain limited Flaherty to 78 1/3 frames in 2021, and the shoulder problems carried over into 2022 when Flaherty needed a PRP injection to deal with bursitis during Spring Training.  The recovery time and prerequisite ramp-up time delayed Flaherty’s season debut until June, but another shoulder strain just a couple of weeks later resulted in another visit to the 60-day injured list.  He was able to return for five starts and a relief appearance in September/October, but Flaherty banked only 36 total innings last season.

Adding to Flaherty’s frustration is the fact that he has been pretty effective when on the mound, particularly prior to his oblique strain in 2021.  The righty had a 3.54 ERA/4.26 SIERA over those 114 1/3 innings in the last two seasons, despite the mostly stop-and-start nature of his appearances.  One can only imagine how well Flaherty might have been able to pitch had he been healthy, and how an in-form version of Flaherty might’ve helped the Cardinals (winless in three postseason games in those seasons) make more of an impact in the playoffs.

Considering the small sample sizes involved, it’s hard to extrapolate much from Flaherty’s lackluster Statcast metrics in the last two years, though he at least still had above-average strikeout and walk rates in 2021.  Put simply, Flaherty’s most important statistic in 2023 will be innings pitched, since good health is his only path back to true front-of-the-rotation status, or even just being a consistent member of a big league rotation.

Now entering his third and final year of salary arbitration, Flaherty’s setbacks had a significant impact on his earning potential.  He won an arb hearing over the Cardinals to earn a $3.9MM salary in 2021, and then avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $5MM salary last season.  With so few innings to build on in 2022, Flaherty is projected to earn only a minimal raise up to $5.1MM for the coming season.

On the plus side, just one healthy and effective season can still line Flaherty up for a hefty contract in free agency next winter.  Flaherty doesn’t even turn 28 until October, so there are several prime seasons still theoretically available for any team interested in paying a premium.  In this scenario, Flaherty’s agents at CAA Sports might even seek a multi-year with an early opt-out clause, which would allow Flaherty to re-enter the market prior to his age-30 or age-31 season.

But, first things first — Flaherty has to avoid any more lengthy trips to the IL.  Rotation-mate Steven Matz is in the same boat after an injury-marred 2022 season, and Matz and Flaherty are projected to pitch at the back end of a St. Louis rotation that also includes Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and Jordan Montgomery.  Such pitchers as Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and Zack Thompson are also on hand for depth, and while the Cardinals are certainly prioritizing winning over auditioning younger pitchers, the team may feel some pressure to see what they have in their controllable arms.  Matz is the only member of the projected starting five who is under contract beyond 2023, as Flaherty, Montgomery, Wainwright (who might retire), and Mikolas are all free agents.

With this many rotation holes to address, it seems probable that the Cardinals will broach an extension with at least one pitcher this spring, yet Flaherty is probably the least likely to work out a long-term deal.  Based on his lack of innings or real results in the last two seasons, Flaherty probably doesn’t want to risk undercutting his earning potential in advance of what he naturally hopes will be a rebound season, and the Cards likewise might not want to make a big investment in a pitcher who has been such an injury magnet for two years running.

It sets the stage for an intriguing season for the 27-year-old righty, as Flaherty might be heading into his final year in St. Louis regardless of how well he pitches.  Either another injury-plagued year leads the Cardinals to move on, or Flaherty might himself depart for a big free agent contract on the heels of a successful bounce-back campaign.

How Much More Do The Padres Have To Spend?

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After exceeding the luxury tax limit in each of the last two seasons, the Padres aren’t slowing down their spending.  Signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM deal was the splashiest move of a busy offseason, but San Diego also made significant investments to re-sign Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, as well as bring in other new talents in Seth Lugo and Matt Carpenter.  The Padres also checked in on any number of other players, including Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Christian Vazquez, Jose Abreu, Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, and Nathan Eovaldi.

The result is a projected $249.4MM payroll for 2023 is the highest in club history, as well as estimated tax number of roughly $266.6MM.  However, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, “people familiar with the team’s thinking say the Padres are up against a self-prescribed spending limit.”  This limit isn’t necessarily absolute, since as Lin notes, the internal spending limit is ultimately up to owner Peter Seidler, who might decide to again green-light a big expenditure if it means getting the Padres a step closer to a World Series title.

Still, it would seem like payroll space might be at something of a premium, given San Diego’s most recent moves.  Adam Engel was signed to a one-year guaranteed deal, and while terms aren’t yet known, it’s safe to assume Engel isn’t getting more than the $2.3MM he was projected to earn in arbitration.  Brent Honeywell was signed to a split contract, while Wilmer Font and Eric Hanhold were inked to minor league deals.  Naturally, all teams (no matter the payroll) look for lower-cost depth as the offseason goes on, but the Padres still have some notable needs that would require a bigger fix.

President of baseball operations AJ Preller is no stranger to creative trades, so the Padres could look to address those needs while freeing up some salary at the same time.  For instance, the Padres have at least some openness to moving infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has a $7MM luxury tax number (based on average annual value) and who is owed $25MM over next two seasons.  Trent Grisham has also been floated as a possible trade candidate, though Grisham is among the less-expensive members of San Diego’s roster.  Dating back to last season, there has long been speculation that Blake Snell (owed $16MM in 2023) could be dealt, even if such a move wouldn’t help fix the depth issues in the Padres’ rotation.

Between trades and promotions, the Padres’ farm system has lost a lot of its depth; Baseball America rated the Padres only 23rd of 30 teams in its midseason organizational talent rankings.  As such, this could complicate the concept of San Diego attaching a prospect or two to an undesirable contract in trade talks.  For instance, Drew Pomeranz missed all of 2022 recovering from flexor tendon surgery, and the reliever is owed $10MM in 2023.  A rebuilding team could be enticed to take Pomeranz’s deal off the Padres’ books if some minor league talent was added as a sweetener, except San Diego might not have the prospects to spare.

Diamondbacks Considering Selling Minority Share Of Franchise

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With the Nationals and Angels possibly being sold within the coming months, the Diamondbacks could also be making a portion of their franchise available.  According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, D’Backs managing general partner Ken Kendrick is weighing the possibility of “selling a significant, but still minority share” of the team.

Kendrick is reportedly waiting until after the Angels’ sale is finalized to further explore the possibility of selling the minority stake.  This would seem to suggest that Kendrick might reach out to Angels bidders who fall short in their quest for full ownership of the Halos, as such a bidder (particularly one based in Southern California) might have interest in gaining another foothold in an MLB ownership group with a D’Backs club that is just a short flight away from the greater Los Angeles area.

Majority control of the Diamondbacks is owned by a four-person investment group that took over the club in 2004 from initial majority owner Jerry Colangelo.  Kendrick is the managing general partner of the four-person group, and acts as the public face of the group as well as MLB’s designated control person for the D’Backs franchise.  The exact breakdown of the franchise’s minority owners isn’t known, though the team told The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan in April 2020 that “around 10” minority partners.  That came after a push by Kendrick to consolidate the Diamondbacks’ number of minority partners, which led to a lawsuit filed against the organization by three of the minority owners.

This latest effort to find a new minority owner could be part of Kendrick’s same consolidation plan.  Also, given how the sale is still only a consideration and possibly contingent on what happens with the Angels, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Kendrick’s group might view selling a minority share as the first step in selling the D’Backs as a whole.  That said, buying a minority share in a team can be a path to a larger change in ownership.  Back in June, the Guardians finalized a sale of roughly 25-30% of the team to David Blitzer, and the deal reportedly contains a clause that would allow Blitzer to buy a majority stake in the Cleveland franchise in 2028.

Forbes Magazine approximated the Diamondbacks as being worth $1.38 billion in their most recent (March 2022) listings of Major League Baseball franchise values.  The most recent teams sold were the Mets ($2.4 billion) and Royals ($1 billion) in 2020, though it can be expected that the Nationals and Angels will continue to drive those numbers upwards.  There has been speculation that it will take over $2 billion to buy the Nats, while the Angels might be able to clear the Mets’ total or perhaps even get closer to $3 billion.

During the Winter Meetings, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said that the league hoped to have the Angels’ sale completed by Opening Day, though there hasn’t been any particular news on that front.  Nightengale writes that the Opening Day deadline doesn’t seem likely, and that interested parties are still being allowed to bid — just this past week, Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob said he was also considering bidding on the Angels.  As such, it could be some time yet before that deal is done, which gives the Diamondbacks more time to monitor the situation.

The Best Remaining Free Agent At Each Position

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The lingering Carlos Correa saga hangs over the free agency market, but beyond him the bulk of the free agents have found new homes for the 2023 season and beyond. While we won’t be seeing any monster deals from here, there are still a handful of players that could still have a positive impact on a new team. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best (in this writer’s view anyway) remaining free agents at each position.

For a full list of the remaining free agents, go here.

Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto: 158 1/3 innings pitched, 3.35 ERA, 5.8 SO/9, 1.9 BB/9. Cueto enjoyed something of a resurgence last year for the White Sox, putting together his best campaign since 2016. His strikeout rate declined considerably but he offset that by displaying some of the best control of his career. He’ll turn 37 in February, so likely will only command a one-year deal but teams in need of a veteran arm to stabilize the backend of the rotation could certainly do worse than adding Cueto. The Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays and Reds have all had reported interest in the veteran right-hander at various stages of the off-season, while teams like the Angels have shown recent interest in adding another starter.

Relief Pitcher: Andrew Chafin: 57 1/3 IP, 2.83 ERA, 10.5 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9. Chafin’s been a quality left-handed reliever for the past few seasons now, the last of which came with the Tigers. He’s effective against both left and right-handed hitters, and should fit in as a late-inning arm wherever he winds up landing. Control was an issue earlier in his career, but he seems to have tidied that up and posted a mark below 8% for the second-straight season. That figure came with a quality 27.6% strikeout rate. After declining a $6.5MM option on his contract with the Tigers, he should be able to top that on the open market on a multi-year deal.

Catcher: Gary Sanchez: 471 plate appearances, .205/.282/.377, 16 home runs. The Yankees flipped Sanchez to Twins last winter after growing frustrated with his performance over the previous few seasons. Sanchez undoubtedly has talent, as evidenced by the 53 home runs and 143 wRC+ he compiled between 2016-17. He’s not come close to replicating that in the years since, slashing .202/.295/.427 for a below-average wRC+ of 96 between 2018-22. Sanchez has never been regarded as one of the top defensive catchers, but did post his best framing numbers per Fangraphs’ metric since 2018, and gave up the fewest wild pitches of his career (excluding the shortened 2020 season and 2016, when he didn’t play a full year). While a number of teams have filled their vacancy at catcher, the likes of the Red Sox, Tigers and Marlins could be among the teams interested.

First base: Trey Mancini: 587 PA, .239/.319/.391, 18 HR. Mancini split time between the Orioles and Astros in 2022, putting together a solid enough campaign at the plate. His 104 wRC+ in the past two seasons indicates he’s just four percent above the league average at the plate. For a first base/corner outfielder that’s unlikely to command a significant guarantee in free agency, but Mancini could still land a multi-year guarantee. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Mancini belongs in that outfield group of such an article, but any acquiring team would surely have him splitting time between first base and the outfield. Mancini was worth 2 Outs Above Average in 323 innings at first in 2022, the best mark of any of the positions he played.

Second base: Josh Harrison: 425 PA, .256/.317/.370, 7 HR. The 35-year-old Harrison recovered from a slow start to finish with a respectable season for the White Sox, finishing with a slightly below average 98 wRC+. That came after he was hitting just .167/.248/.255 on June 2. He doesn’t offer much in the way of power, but he provides a solid contact bat who can play all over the infield. Harrison logged most of his defensive time at second base, where he was worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved. He was also worth 3 DRS at third base, and can fill in at short and the corner outfield spots at a pinch. Teams in need of a veteran utility player could do worse than adding Harrison on a one-year deal.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus: 577 PA, .249/.303/.404, 17 HR. Andrus started the year in Oakland, but was released in August and finished the season with the White Sox. The 34-year-old has a bit of pop in his bat, and grades out well defensively at shortstop, where he was worth 3 Outs Above Average in 2022. He may very well be the best infielder left on the open market, yet it’s been a quiet winter for Andrus, with little reported movement in his market. Obviously Correa has not officially signed a contract, but for the purposes of this article we’ll assume he’s heading to the Mets in which case Andrus would be the next best option for teams on the hunt for a shortstop.

Third base: Brian Anderson: 383 PA, .222/.311/.346, 8 HR. Anderson put up the worst offensive numbers of his five full seasons with the Marlins in 2022, finishing up with a 90 wRC+. That was the second-straight season of offensive decline for the 29-year-old, who put up a 115 wRC+ between 2018-20. He’s split time between third base and right field in recent times, grading out well in both until 2022. Last year, he was worth -4 DRS after picking up 12 DRS over the previous three seasons at the hot corner. The decline was enough for the Marlins to non-tender him this winter ahead of his final year of arbitration, but he could make sense as a buy-low bounceback candidate for any number of teams.

Left/Right field: Jurickson Profar: 658 PA, .243/.331/.391, 15 HR. Profar is arguably the top remaining free agent available. The 29-year-old (30 in February) puts the ball in play plenty, as evidenced by his quality 15.7% strikeout rate. He also takes plenty of walks and has a bit of pop in the bat. A former middle infielder, the Padres played him exclusively in left last year and he picked up 2 Defensive Runs Saved. He turned down an $7.5MM in favor of a $1MM buyout this winter to hit the open market in search of a multi-year deal. The Rangers and Yankees make sense as teams looking for left field help, while the Marlins and Rockies could also make sense.

Center field: Albert Almora: 235 PA, .223/.282/.349, 5 HR. The center field market was not deep to begin with, and is now largely limited to glove first options. Almora doesn’t pose much of a threat with the bat, as evidenced by his 71 wRC+, but he was worth 8 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield for the Reds, with four of those coming in center field. He’s unlikely to be a starting option for teams but would make sense as a glove-first bench option.

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz: 507 PA, .234/.313/.337, 10 HR. After a number of years of elite production at the plate, 2022 was the first below average year for Cruz since 2007 (per wRC+). He’s now 42, so betting on him bouncing back is a risky one, but he mashed 89 home runs and compiled a 146 wRC+ between 2019-21 so it’s not like this has been a steady decline over a number of years. With that being said, he hasn’t played the field at all since 2018 so is exclusively limited to DH duties. It was reported a few days ago that he has received offers for the 2023 season though, so it seems he will be back for a 19th big league season.

Tigers Sign Aneurys Zabala To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have added right-hander Aneurys Zabala on a minor league deal, according to his MLB transaction log. Zabala was designated for assignment by the Marlins in September last year, and became a free agent at the end of the season.

Zabala, 26, had a very brief stint in the majors last year for Miami, pitching in two games and throwing 2 2/3 scoreless innings. He spent most of the season at Triple-A, where he tossed 17 2/3 innings of of 9.51 ERA ball, where his strong 25.2% strikeout rate was offset by an unsightly 23.5% walk rate.

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Mariners back in 2014, Zabala bounced around a few teams in addition to Seattle coming up through the minors, getting stints within the Dodgers, Reds and Phillies organizations, before landing with the Marlins. He’s flashed a 99 mph fastball, but has generally struggled with the walks. That became far more pronounced in 2022, as it’s tended to hover in the 12-15% range rather than the 23.5% mark it wound up at in 2022.

Marlins Letting Teams Know Four Of Their Starters Are Available

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The Marlins’ Pablo Lopez has often come up in trade rumors, but according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Lopez is just one of four starters that the Marlins are telling other teams are available in trade talks. The other three are Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. It’s been widely reported for quite some time that the Marlins were willing to tap into their pitching surplus in trades, but this sheds more light on who the Marlins are willing to trade and who’s seemingly off limits.

The Marlins have a solid stable of controllable pitching with ace Sandy Alcantara and youngster Braxton Garrett joining that quartet, as well as a group of young arms including Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez and Max Meyer who should be able to help the big league club within the next few seasons. As such, there’s definitely a surplus of pitching in Miami and the team could well look to offload an arm to bolster their offense.

Last summer, it was reported that the Yankees came close to a deal that would’ve sent Lopez to the Bronx in a deal involving Gleyber Torres. It was also reported this winter that the Marlins and Rockies discussed a deal involving Cabrera and Brendan Rodgers, so it’s not secret that Miami is listening on some of their starters. Notably, both of the two players the Fish would have acquired in those trades are second basemen, but they’ve recently gone out and picked up Jean Segura to bolster their infield group.

Instead, the team could look to turn one of their starters into an outfielder. The Padres have been linked with adding another starter, and have reportedly shown a willingness to trade Trent Grisham, so there could be a match there. It’s also been reported that the Pirates are seeking young pitching to headline any deal for Bryan Reynolds, so if the Marlins are really keen to make a big splash perhaps floating Cabrera as part of a deal would get Pittsburgh’s attention.

With six years of control remaining, Cabrera, 24, would certainly be an attractive acquisition for pitching hungry teams. A former top-100 prospect, he tossed 71 2/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball for the Fish last year, with a solid 25.8% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate.

Luzardo, 25, is hitting arbitration for the first time this year as a Super Two player, and is projected (via Matt Swartz) to make $2MM in 2023. He put together a 3.32 ERA over 100 1/3 innings with a very strong 30% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. He missed about two-and-a-half months last season with a forearm strain, but a full season of his output would make for a quality starting pitcher. The left-hander is under control for four more years.

Rogers, 25, was excellent in 2021, but took a step back in 2022. The southpaw made the All Star game in ’21 during a season in which he threw 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball. That was followed up by 107 innings of 5.47 ERA ball in ’22, as Rogers saw his strikeout rate drop by about 6% and his walk rate jump by a percentage point. He also saw his HR/FB rate jump from just 5% in 2021 to 13.2% last year. Rogers is under control for four more seasons, and is due to hit arbitration for the first time next winter.

Lopez, 27 in March, was a steady presence in the rotation for the Fish last season, hurling 180 innings of 3.75 ERA ball over 32 starts. He may not possess the upside of the three younger pitchers, but Lopez has been a consistent pitcher for a few years now, finishing up with ERAs of 3.61, 3.07 and 3.75 in the past three years. Projected to make $5.6MM through arbitration this year, he’s under control for another two seasons and would slot nicely into the middle of a lot of rotations around baseball.

Latest On The Yankees’ Left Field Plans

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The Yankees’ left field conundrum has been an ongoing topic of the off-season as the team mulls over whether or not to bring in someone through the trade market or free agency, or stick with their internal options.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, the team’s preferred outcome would have been to retain Andrew Benintendi, but he wound up signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the White Sox. He reports that the Yankees would have gone to five years to get Benintendi were it not for the fact they’d signed starter Carlos Rodon to a six-year, $162MM pact. Sherman also reports that the team was “very involved” in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Daulton Varsho before they ultimately shifted him to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno.

The biggest available name the team has been connected to is Bryan Reynolds. He has requested a trade out of Pittsburgh, but it seems the Bucs have set a high asking price on their star outfielder and haven’t budged on that front. Nonetheless, Jon Heyman of the New York Post recently reported that the Yankees were one of the teams “consistently” interested in acquiring Reynolds. As a switch-hitter with three-years of team control remaining he’d certainly fit on their roster, but the Yankees may be reluctant to part with top prospects such as Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to get a deal done.

It’s slim pickings on the free agent market at this point, but Sherman does note that the team has had some interest in Jurickson Profar. The switch-hitter was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Padres in 2022 and would be a solid option to upgrade their outfield stocks. Yet Oswaldo Cabrera was worth 1.5 fWAR in 44 games and Aaron Hicks the same in 130 games, so the team may not see Profar as enough of a needle-mover to commit to the multi-year deal he likely seeks. The same could be said of another left-handed bat in David Peralta, but it doesn’t appear there’s been much interest from the Yankees anyway.

Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reported in a recent mailbag that the team could forego external options and let Hicks and Cabrera battle it out in spring training for the starting job. While it isn’t the most exciting option for Yankees fans, there is some sense in it. The Yankees roster is strong enough to be in a good spot for the first three months of the season without an upgrade in left, so the team could see if Hicks can rebound or Cabrera can sustain his small sample of work over a longer period, before deciding whether or not to seek an external upgrade at the trade deadline.

Hicks had plenty of shortcomings in 2022, but he still walked at a strong 13.7% clip and if he can regain even a little bit of the power he’s showed in the past he could still be reasonably productive player. Cabrera was exceptional in the field last year, earning 9 Defensive Runs Saved in 278 2/3 outfield innings, while posting a 111 wRC+ at the plate. He also struggled mightily in the playoffs, going 2-for-28 with 12 strikeouts. In any event, he may have more value to the Yankees as someone who can play all over the field rather than in a fixed position, allowing the Yankees to spell some of their veterans on a more regular basis.

Estevan Florial is the other internal option that the Yankees will need to make a decision on. A toolsy former top-100 prospect, Florial has found opportunities few and far between over the past three seasons (just 63 plate appearances) but is out of options so can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to waivers. He’s hit well at Triple-A and the Yankees could give him an extended run in the majors, but Sherman opines that the Yankees could trade him prior to the season opener. While his trade value won’t be particularly high anymore, plenty of teams – particularly rebuilding ones – would surely like to give him an extended opportunity in the big leagues to see if they can tap into his potential.

The Yankees have also been aggressive in recent weeks in stocking up on outfield depth in the minors. They’ve signed Willie Calhoun, Billy McKinney and Rafael Ortega to minor league deals, and Sherman notes they checked in on Kole Calhoun as well. Calhoun and McKinney look like depth pieces, but Ortega is an interesting add. He had a 122 wRC+ for the Cubs over 330 plate appearances in 2021, and while it dropped back to 96 in 2022 he does look to be a possible option for the Yankees. As a left-handed pull hitter, he could benefit from playing regularly in Yankee Stadium as well, so a strong spring could see him force his way into the team’s plans at the big league level.

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