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Archives for January 2023

The Opener: Belt, Correa, MLBTR Chat

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After a busy morning on the free agent market, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Belt, Blue Jays deal to be made official.

Susan Sussler of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that longtime Giant Brandon Belt, who landed in Toronto last night on a one-year deal, will be officially announced by the Blue Jays today. Because the Blue Jays have a full 40-man roster, the club will need to announce a corresponding move to clear space for the slugger. Belt, who will play next season at age 35, has passed his physical and is good to go for the 2023 season after undergoing knee surgery in September, per Slusser. The addition of Belt should help the Blue Jays in their quest to balance their lineup, which was heavily right-handed in 2022. He joins Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho as lefty bats the club has added to their position player mix this offseason.

2. Is a Correa conclusion on the horizon?

Last night brought an update on Carlos Correa’s free agent saga, as reports began to swirl that talks between Correa and the Twins are accelerating. Correa initially agreed to a deal with the Giants last month before a snag in negotiations caused by Correa’s physical caused the shortstop’s camp to pivot to a new deal with the Mets to play third base. The Mets, too, flagged an old injury in Correa’s physical as cause for concern, and the sides have spent the past few weeks trying to finalize the agreement. Whether Correa ultimately ends up in New York, Minnesota, or somewhere else entirely, it seems likely that Correa’s rollercoaster free agency could be finally approaching its conclusion.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be taking questions from readers today when he hosts a live chat at 1pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and the same link will take you to the chat when it begins later today if you would like to participate live.

Marlins To Sign Johnny Cueto

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The Marlins are in agreement with free agent right-hander Johnny Cueto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Cueto, a client of Primo Sports Group, will be guaranteed $8.5MM on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2024 season, per Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link). That’ll be paid out in the form of a $6MM salary for the upcoming season, plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $10.5MM option for a second year. If the Fish pick up that option, Cueto would earn $16.5MM over the next two seasons.

Cueto, who’ll pitch next season at age 37, began his career with the Reds in 2008 and was among the best pitchers in baseball for them from 2011 to 2015, when he was dealt to the Royals midseason in exchange for Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed. The highlight of Cueto’s tenure in Cincinnati was the 2014 season, when he led the NL in innings pitched (243 2/3) and strikeouts (242) while also posting a sterling 2.25 ERA (163 ERA+) en route to his first All-Star appearance and a second-place finish in Cy Young award voting.

Cueto went on to win a World Series with the Royals in 2015 before departing for free agency, where he eventually landed with the Giants on a six-year, $130MM deal. In the first year of his deal with San Francisco, Cueto was excellent. An ERA of 2.79 (144 ERA+) with a FIP of 2.95 over 219 2/3 innings led him to his second All-Star appearance and a fourth-place finish in Cy Young award voting as the Giants secured a spot in the Wild Card game, defeating the Mets in a one-game playoff before falling to the Cubs in the NLDS.

While the contract appeared to be a resounding success after the first year, things quickly took a turn as Cueto began to struggle to stay on the field. From 2017 until the end of his Giants tenure in 2021, Cueto posted a 4.38 ERA (95 ERA+) and 4.47 FIP in just 394 1/3 innings while spending time on the injured list in each of those seasons except for the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Given his injury history and the fact that his numbers were closer to those of a back-end starter than the dominant ace he once was, Cueto settled for a minor-league deal with the White Sox in 2022 — albeit one with a notable base salary of $4.2MM (quite a bit higher than most minor league deals).

That deal worked out phenomenally for the White Sox, as Cueto posted a resurgent season in 2022 and looked like a bit more like his old self as he posted a 3.35 ERA (118 ERA+) and and 3.79 FIP across 24 starts and 158 1/3 innings. While Cueto no longer struck batters out at an above-average rate as he did in the prime of his career, he maintained his excellent control, posting a 5.1% walk rate that ranked in the 88th percentile of all MLB hurlers, per Statcast. Despite Cueto’s resurgent season, however, there’s reason to think regression could be on the way in 2023. Cueto’s homer-to-flyball rate dropped considerably from a 12% rate in 2021 to a 7.7% rate in 2022. While changes to the pitching environment could factor into this, Cueto’s mark in 2022 was below even his career 10.4% mark — even as he gave up barreled balls at his highest rate since 2019.

Despite these concerns, Cueto should still be a quality arm for the Marlins in 2023. He joins a Miami rotation already overflowing with options: ace Sandy Alcantara is followed by Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera, and Braxton Garrett in addition to Cueto.

That’s also not including young arms who could contribute in the future, such as Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez, Jake Eder and Max Meyer. Tommy John surgery has sidelined both Eder (Aug. 2021) and Meyer (July 2022) recently, and Sanchez has dealt with recurring shoulder troubles. Still, that trio are all fairly well regarded, while Perez is arguably the top pitching prospect in the sport at this point.

Rumors have swirled throughout the offseason of the Marlins dealing from their deep stable of rotation players, and signing Cueto provides them with additional depth in the rotation in order to more comfortably make those deals. Currently, the Marlins are reported to be listening to offers on four members of the rotation: Lopez, Rogers, Cabrera and Luzardo. With plenty of teams still looking to add to their rotation this offseason, including the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Padres, signing one of the best remaining starters on the free agent market has surely strengthened Miami’s position in trade talks.

With Cueto now in place, the Marlins’ projected payroll is up to about $106MM, per Roster Resource. That’d represent the team’s highest mark since trotting out a franchise-record $117MM Opening Day payroll back in 2017, though it’s of course still one of the smaller financial outlays of any team in the sport. It also bears mentioning that a trade from that stable of young starters could reduce the total expenditure; Lopez is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.6MM in 2023. Luzardo is projected to earn $2MM. Rogers and Cabrera are not yet arbitration-eligible.

The Padres and Reds are among the clubs that have shown interest in Cueto this winter previously. The starting options on the free agent market this offseason are quickly dwindling, but Michael Wacha and Zack Greinke still offer the ability to solidify a club’s rotation. Otherwise, rotation upgrades likely would need to come from the trade market, where the Marlins seem to hold the majority of the cards.

Jose Miguel Fernandez Signs With Mexican League’s Saraperos De Saltillo

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The Saraperos de Saltillo of the Mexican League announced this afternoon they’ve signed infielder José Miguel Fernández for the 2023 season. The left-handed hitter heads to Mexico after four seasons in South Korea.

Fernández, a native of Cuba, was a high-profile player in the Serie Nacional throughout his 20’s. He eventually defected and signed with the Dodgers, topping out at Triple-A. After being released by the Dodgers, he signed with the Angels going into the 2018 season. The left-handed hitter played well in Triple-A and earned an MLB call midseason, where he hit .267/.309/.388 over 36 games.

After that season, the Halos designated Fernández for assignment. He cleared waivers and then turned his attention overseas, signing with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Doosan Bears. That proved a fruitful signing for the Bears, as Fernández broke in with a .344/.409/.483 showing. He’d return to the Bears on a series of one-year deals in each of the ensuing three offseasons.

Fernández reached base at a .391 clip or better in each of his first three years, walking more often than he struck out in each season. He connected on at least 15 home runs in those seasons. The 2022 campaign was more of a struggle, though. Fernández hit only six homers. He still batted above .300 but his .353 on-base percentage was the lowest of his time in the KBO, as was his .400 slugging mark.

All told, Fernández hit .328/.391/.457 over four KBO seasons. He’ll now make the jump to the Mexican League for his age-35 campaign, his 15th year of professional baseball.

Will Brewers’ Rotation Depth Lead To Houser Trade?

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The Brewers’ lone free-agent move of thee offseason thus far — a one-year, $4.5MM deal with lefty Wade Miley — became official this afternoon. Miley returns for a second stint with the Brewers in hopes of rebounding from an injury-marred 2022 season with the division-rival Cubs. It’s a pretty straightforward deal for a veteran pitcher in search of a rebound. The Brewers offered opportunity and some incentives based on innings to a pitcher who’s had success in Milwaukee once before (2.57 ERA in 16 starts back in 2018). Miley gives the Brewers some depth and the potential for bulk innings at the back of the rotation.

Somewhat curiously, the Brewers already seemed to have plenty of that. Miley’s contract quite likely locks him into the fifth spot in the rotation. The Brewers have maintained that they won’t trade either Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff this winter. Freddy Peralta is signed through 2024 with a pair of club options thereafter. Lefty Eric Lauer was second on the Brewers in terms of both innings pitched and games started in 2022, and while he had a rough finish to the year, there was a lengthy bit of time from summer of 2021 into the 2022 season where Lauer was one of the team’s best pitchers. He’s controlled another two years and seems unlikely to be moved.

That’s five starting pitchers, but the Brewers also signed young Aaron Ashby to a five-year, $20.5MM extension last season in the midst of his rookie campaign last year. That deal, which contains club options for the 2028-29 seasons, was clearly issued with the vision of Ashby pitching out of the rotation. Perhaps for the 2023 season, he’ll serve as a sixth starter and only be called upon to step into the rotation in the event of an injury, but he’s clearly in the long-term plan as a potential starter.

That brings the Brewers up to six rotation options, and that’s before considering right-hander Adrian Houser, who ranked fourth on the team in innings pitched and games started in 2022. Admittedly, 2022 wasn’t a great season for Houser, who limped to an uncharacteristic 4.73 ERA with a career-worst 15.2% strikeout rate and career-low 46.7% ground-ball rate.

Given those struggles from Houser and an uneven season for Ashby, it’s understandable if the Brewers wanted some low-cost stability at the back of the rotation. Miley can provide that, health permitting, but it doesn’t leave Houser with a clear role. He’s out of minor league options, and Ashby seems likelier to be ticketed for the long relief/swingman role over Houser. The Brewers even added an eighth rotation candidate — fellow out-of-options hurler Bryse Wilson — in a small swap with the Pirates. Wilson figures to be in the bullpen to begin the season, if he even makes it to Opening Day on the 40-man roster. For now, his presence gives the Brewers a trio of bullpen arms who operated primarily as starters in 2022.

Houser already throws decently hard (94.4 mph average four-seamer, 93.8 mph sinker in 2022), so it could be argued that he’s somewhat intriguing in a short relief role that might make his velocity tick up even further. But he also already agreed to a $3.6MM salary for the 2023 season, and that seems like a relatively expensive experiment for a Brewers team that declined a net $2.25MM salary for steady veteran reliever Brad Boxberger ($3MM option, $750K buyout).

Dropping Houser into short relief also overlooks the fact that from 2019-21, he was a solid member of the team’s rotation. He began the 2019 season in the ’pen but moved to the rotation and hardly looked back; overall 55 of Houser’s 75 outings in that time came as a starter. He made only three relief appearances in 2020-21. And, during that three-year period from 2019-21, he pitched to a combined 3.78 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate, a 9.3% walk rate and an outstanding 57% ground-ball rate. The strikeout rate was below-average, and the walk rate was a bit elevated, but fielding-independent marks like FIP (4.26) and SIERA (4.28) still felt Houser was plenty serviceable.

There’s no getting around the fact that the 2022 season was an ugly one for Houser, but he’s still an affordable 29-year-old right-hander (30 next month) with a career 3.97 ERA in 428 innings, most of which has come as a starter. He’s eligible for arbitration once more next winter and can become a free agent after the 2024 season. Houser alone isn’t going to change a team’s fortunes in the rotation, but he’s also very arguably as good a bet as the bulk of the remaining unsigned free agents. Certainly, he’ll cost less from a financial perspective, though he’d of course require a modest package of young talent or perhaps a bat in a similar square-peg/round-hole situation.

With Houser falling to at least sixth, if not seventh on the Brewers’ rotation depth chart, he stands out as a natural trade candidate. World Series hopefuls probably aren’t going to look at Houser and think he’s someone they can acquire and plug into a playoff rotation, but there are plenty of teams still on the lookout for solid innings at the back of their starting staff.

Even for a rebuilding team, it’s conceivable they could buy low on Houser now and then recoup most of that value, if not more, at the deadline or next offseason if he’s able to bounce back or partially reinvent himself under the tutelage of a new organization. (That’s not a knock on the Brewers specifically, but it’s common for new teams to alter pitch selection, arm slot, etc.) He could also help take the pressure off a team’s young starters and allow those less experienced arms to be eased into the Majors.

Given the constant need for pitching throughout the league, there’s no shortage of teams that could feasibly make sense as a Houser suitor. The Orioles, for instance, are still reportedly on the hunt for another veteran arm. General manager Mike Elias was in the Astros’ scouting department in 2011 when Houser was a second-round pick. The Red Sox are teeming with injury uncertainty thanks to the presence of Chris Sale and James Paxton. Most of the Tigers’ young pitchers have befallen some type of injury in the past calendar year. The Nationals could use some more support for young arms like Cade Cavalli and MacKenzie Gore. The Rockies’ rotation is a collection of question marks, and Colorado tends to value ground-ball pitchers.

That’s just a handful of speculative landing spots, and it’s a given that other needs will arise during Spring Training, when camps begin to open and pitchers are inevitably sidelined due to injury. If the Brewers don’t find any offers to their liking now, they can simply hold onto Houser and see how demand looks in two months’ time. It’s possible an in-house injury will alter the calculus for the Brewers themselves, too. The nice part is that while Houser may be a bit pricier than they’d prefer, given his lack of a clearly defined role, he’s also not so expensive that the Brewers need to urgently pursue trades to dump his salary.

It’s been a quiet offseason for the Brewers on the free-agent front, but Milwaukee has already swung seven trades under newly installed baseball operations leader Matt Arnold. Gone from the ’22 Brew Crew via trade are Kolten Wong, Esteury Ruiz and Justin Topa. Newcomers include William Contreras, Jesse Winker, Abraham Toro, Javy Guerra, the previously mentioned Bryse Wilson, Owen Miller and Payton Henry. Based on the rotation depth they have with Miley in the fold and the lack of minor league options for Houser, he’s a decent candidate to change hands and push Arnold’s trade count in his first offseason at the helm up to eight.

Talks Between Twins, Carlos Correa “Have Begun To Accelerate”

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Talks between the Twins and Carlos Correa “have begun to accelerate,” report Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Minnesota rejoined the bidding late last week as talks between Correa’s camp and the Mets continued to drag on after New York had expressed concerns regarding his physical.

Rosenthal and Hayes reiterate that the Mets are not necessarily out of the bidding. The Athletic characterizes discussions as “fluid.” It’s the firmest indication yet, however, that Correa to the Mets no longer appears an inevitability. Minnesota seems very much back in the mix.

The Twins have maintained all offseason they hoped to retain the two-time All-Star after his season in the Twin Cities. There always seemed a strong possibility Correa would opt out of his three-year, $105.3MM pact after one season and land a more significant guarantee elsewhere. That has appeared to be the case on multiple occasions this offseason. The Twins reportedly put forth a ten-year, $285MM offer in December that fell well shy of the 13-year, $350MM pact to which Correa agreed with the Giants.

Of course, the Giants deal fell through after San Francisco’s medical professionals raised concerns about Correa’s right leg. He’d fractured his leg as a prospect back in 2014, requiring surgery that ended that season. Correa returned at the start of the next year and has never had an injured list stint related to his leg as an MLB player. Giants medical staffers raised some questions about its long-term sustainability, however, and the agreement was called off on the eve of the introductory press conference.

Correa and agent Scott Boras immediately pivoted to the Mets, agreeing to terms on a new 12-year, $315MM pact. That contract was also contingent on a physical, of course. New York’s doctors similarly took issue with Correa’s right leg, and the saga took another stunning twist.

Unlike after the collapse of the San Francisco deal, Correa’s camp didn’t immediately pivot to other teams. They negotiated exclusively with the Mets for roughly two weeks (presumably in part delayed by the holiday season). Reports suggested New York was intent on instituting some injury protection in the contract, likely via a clause that’d reduce the club’s financial hit and/or allow them to get out of a certain portion of the deal if Correa missed significant time because of a right leg injury.

Those talks seemingly hit a snag, and Boras reengaged with at least Minnesota last week. Andy Martino of SNY reported at the time that Mets brass was growing increasingly frustrated with discussions and had given some consideration to walking away from the deal entirely. There’s no indication they’ve done so, but Minnesota is again involved.

The Twins will have their own concerns regarding Correa’s physical condition, to be sure. Correa passed a physical to sign his first contract with Minnesota last spring, but it’s possible the organization will evaluate things differently if looking at a commitment nearing or topping a decade in length than they did for a three-year guarantee. Correa spent the season in Minnesota but didn’t seem to undergo a significant medical evaluation after his initial physical, aside from imaging on a bruised finger suffered in May. Hayes and Rosenthal write that Correa didn’t appear in the Minnesota training room at any point in the season after returning from his finger issue.

While that’s not all that surprising, it’s notable considering Correa had a late-September scare with his right leg. He spent some time on the ground after sliding into a base and then limped off the field. He remained in the game and didn’t miss any time, but he acknowledged after the contest he had felt some numbness and vibration in the leg, which he noted contained a metal plate that was put in during his 2014 surgery.

Reds, Henry Ramos Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Reds are in agreement with outfielder Henry Ramos on a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.

Ramos has a bit of big league experience. He debuted as a September call-up for the Diamondbacks in 2021, earning the nod after a .371/.439/.582 showing at Triple-A Reno. He appeared in 18 games for the Snakes at season’s end, hitting .200/.255/.300 across 55 trips to the plate. Arizona ran him through outright waivers at the start of that offseason, and he qualified for minor league free agency.

The switch-hitting outfielder parlayed his big Triple-A showing into an opportunity in South Korea. Ramos signed with the KBO’s KT Wiz but didn’t hold his spot on the roster for long. He got out to a .250/.304/.417 start through 18 contests before fracturing a toe on his right foot. The Wiz released him to facilitate the signing of former Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Alford in May. Ramos didn’t sign anywhere else for the rest of the season but returned in the Puerto Rican winter league this offseason.

The 30-year-old will get some reps in Spring Training and seems likely to open next season at Triple-A Louisville. Ramos can cover all three outfield positions and carries a .297/.350/.471 line in a bit less than 1400 career plate appearances at the top minor league level. The Reds seem likely to open with Nick Senzel in center field, with TJ Friedl, Stuart Fairchild and rookie Michael Siani among the other options on the 40-man roster.

MLBTR Poll: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter

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Four of the Blue Jays’ five starting jobs are set. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both had great seasons last year and will be back in 2023. José Berríos is coming off a disappointing season but has a strong track record and six years left on his extension, making him a lock on another spot. Chris Bassitt will also be in there after the club agreed to give him $63MM over three years this winter, in addition to surrendering a draft pick and international bonus space because Bassitt rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.

The final spot is less certain, however, with a few potential options that could step up and take the job. Hyun Jin Ryu is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could be back around the All-Star break, though that’s still an estimate at this point. Someone will have to take the fifth spot for at least the first half. Even if Ryu does meet that timeline and comes back for the second half, it’s possible that an injury to one of the other pitchers creates a continued need for another arm. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the candidates.

Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi is probably considered the frontrunner for the fifth starter right now, just based on experience. After years of strong work in Japan, Kikuchi came over to North America by signing with the Mariners prior to 2019. He spent three years with Seattle, posting some intriguing but inconsistent results.

He reached free agency after 2021 and signed a three-year, $36MM deal with the Jays. He made 2o starts last year but got bumped to the bullpen after registering a 5.25 ERA in that time. He’d go on to toss 18 1/3 innings in the bullpen with a slightly better 4.91 ERA, though the underlying numbers were more encouraging. His 24.5% strikeout rate as a starter jumped up to an incredible 39.8% rate as a reliever, while his control also improved. He posted a 13.2% walk rate in the rotation but walked just 10.8% of batters faced out of the ’pen. A .371 batting average on balls in play as a reliever perhaps helped to push his ERA up, with his 4.15 FIP and 2.28 xFIP suggesting he deserved better, though it’s also possible he was just getting hit hard.

That’s a small sample size but it perhaps suggests there’s a chance Kikuchi has a nice floor as a left-handed reliever if he eventually gets pushed out of the rotation for good. However, it’s also possible he gets another chance to start since he’s the most experienced of this bunch, turning 32 in June. He can at least bring some velocity, as he averages around 95 mph on his fastball, one of the best such marks among left-handed starters in the game. But it doesn’t seem to be a challenge for big league hitters, as Kikuchi ranked in the first percentile last year in terms of barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocity. He has a 5.02 ERA through 466 1/3 MLB innings at this point and will have to figure out a way to get better results. Even if he gets the fifth starter job out of Spring Training, he should have other guys on his heels throughout the season.

Mitch White

White, 28, was a second round pick of the Dodgers in 2016 and had been a well-regarded prospect in the years after that. He’s spent the past three years without a firm role, frequently being optioned to the minors and recalled to the majors as needed, making starts but also relief appearances.

In 2021, he made 21 appearances in the majors, including four starts. He tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA, getting grounders at a 47.7% rate while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 8.6% of them. Things went even better in 43 2/3 innings in the minors, with White posting a 1.65 ERA, with a 30.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.

In the first few months of 2022, White only made a couple of Triple-A appearances, spending most of his time with the big league club. He made 10 starts and five relief appearances, logging 56 innings. He had a solid 3.70 ERA and 8% walk rate, though his strikeout rate dipped to 19.8%. The Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline but the switch didn’t help his results. He made 10 appearances for the Jays, including eight starts, and posted a 7.74 ERA in that time. His walk and ground ball rates stayed around average but his strikeout rate fell even further to 15.3%.

Despite that rough start to his Toronto tenure, there’s plenty to like in White overall. He was in the 79th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate, 77th in barrel rate and 63rd in average exit velocity. His .276 BABIP as a Dodger and .368 mark as a Blue Jay explain the different results somewhat. All of the advanced metrics liked his Toronto work much better than that huge ERA, including a 3.76 FIP, 4.68 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA. White is now out of options so the Jays will have to keep him in the bullpen as a long man if he doesn’t snag the rotation job, but he has five years of control remaining and should get some starting opportunities whenever the circumstances allow.

Nate Pearson

Pearson, 26, arguably has the most upside of anyone on this list. Selected by the Jays in the first round of the 2017 draft, he posted great results in the minors and shot up prospect rankings. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the game by the start of 2018 and he got as high as #7 in 2020.

Unfortunately, injuries have stalled Pearson out since then, as he hasn’t been able to throw 50 innings in any of the past three seasons. Elbow tightness limited him to 18 innings in 2020, plus two more in the postseason. The following year, he dealt with a groin strain and a shoulder impingement, then underwent surgery on a sports hernia at season’s end. Between the majors and minors, he tossed 45 2/3 innings on the year. In 2022, his early season ramp-up was delayed by mononucleosis and he then suffered a lat strain while rehabbing. He was only able to throw 15 1/3 innings in the minors, though he was healthy enough by the end of the year to play in the Dominican Winter League. He tossed 12 innings for Tigres del Licey without allowing an earned run, striking out 36.4% of batters faced.

The fact that Pearson finished the year healthy and dealing in winter ball is encouraging, but it’s hard to expect much from him in the immediate future. He might still be a big league starter someday, but after three straight seasons of injuries and scattered appearances, it’s probably unwise to expect him to suddenly jump to the range of 150 innings in 2023. When he was last healthy for an extended stretch, he pitched 101 2/3 minor league innings in 2019 with a 2.30 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. The talent is clearly there but his workload capacity is an unanswered question.

Thomas Hatch

Hatch, 28, was a third round pick of the Cubs in 2016 but came to the Jays in a 2019 deadline deal that sent David Phelps to Chicago. Hatch had an encouraging major league debut in 2020, tossing 26 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA. However, the last couple of seasons have been a struggle, with Hatch posting middling results in the minors and only getting into four big league games between the two campaigns. In 2022, he made a single start for the Jays and allowed 10 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. In 131 Triple-A innings, he had a 4.67 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s still on the 40-man and has another option year left, but he’s likely just an emergency starting candidate unless he takes a step forward this year.

Bowden Francis

Francis, 27 in April, was a seventh-round selection of the Brewers in 2017 but came to the Jays in the 2021 Rowdy Tellez trade. He was added to the Jays’ roster in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, Francis scuffled last year, despite a scoreless MLB debut that lasted 2/3 of an inning. He tossed 98 1/3 innings in the minors with a 6.59 ERA, getting outrighted off the roster in June.

However, Francis suited up for winter ball, joining Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico. That stint has gone extremely well for him, with Francis making nine starts with a 1.51 ERA over 35 2/3 innings. He’s struck out 47 of the 136 batters he’s faced for an excellent 34.6% rate. He’s still a long shot to earn a spot with the Jays since he’s no longer on the 40-man, but he could be an interesting wild card in this deck.

Yosver Zulueta

The Blue Jays picked up some extra international bonus pool money by trading Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr. and used that to sign Zulueta out of Cuba in June of 2019, just before the signing period which began in July of 2018 was set to conclude. At that time, Zulueta had already been clocked at 98 mph, per a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Since then, Zulueta’s rise has been stalled by a couple of factors. He required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing and spent 2020 rehabbing. In 2021, he faced one batter before tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, wiping out the rest of that year. In 2022, finally healthy, Zulueta had a breakout year in the minors, going from Low-A to High-A to Double-A and then Triple-A. He posted a combined 3.72 ERA over 55 2/3 innings, striking out 33.9% of batters faced while walking 12.9% of them.

At the end of the year, the Jays added Zulueta to the 40-man to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft and Baseball America ranked him the second-best prospect in the system, trailing only the pitcher below him in this article. Zulueta is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate solution for the Jays. After some extended injury time, he still needs to build up his workload and refine his command. But once he does, he has a triple-digit heater that headlines a four-pitch mix. He turns 25 his month and has a full slate of options, suggesting there will be no rush to push him into the big league rotation. But as the Jays recently showed with Manoah, they can be aggressive with young hurlers once the pitcher shows himself ready.

Ricky Tiedemann

Tiedemann, 20, was selected by the Jays in the third round of the 2021 draft. In 2022, he began the year in Low-A and then jumped to High-A and Double-A in his age-19 season. He tossed 78 2/3 innings over those three levels with a 2.17 ERA, striking out 38.9% of batters faced while walking 9.6% of them.

That performance led to him shooting up prospect rankings last year. As mentioned, BA now considers him the best prospect in the system, with Gabriel Moreno having been traded to the Diamondbacks in the Daulton Varsho deal. They also currently have him ranked the #28 prospect in the entire league, with MLB Pipeline similarly bullish by ranking him #33.

Like Zulueta, Tiedemann is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate option for the Jays. He’s still incredibly young and won’t be Rule 5 eligible until December of 2025. However, since he reached Double-A last year, there’s a chance he’ll be knocking on the door this year.

External Addition

It’s also possible that the Jays look outside the organization to find someone they like better than any of these options. The club has reportedly shown interest in Johnny Cueto, suggesting they could add a short-term veteran to take over and push everyone else down the depth chart. Cueto seems to have plenty of interest, with the Reds, Marlins and Padres among those who seem to be in the mix. If the Jays miss on him, some other remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. If the Jays are willing to swing another trade, the Marlins have plenty of arms available, the Mariners seem to have some openness to dealing Chris Flexen, while the Brewers seem stacked in the rotation and could consider trading someone like Adrian Houser.

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Angels Designate Austin Warren For Assignment

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The Angels announced they’re designated reliever Austin Warren for assignment. The move creates a spot on the 40-man roster for outfielder Brett Phillips, who has officially signed his one-year free agent contract.

Warren, 27 next month, first secured a spot on the 40-man in July 2021. The righty has worked as a depth reliever in the year and a half since then. He pitched 16 times as a rookie, posting a 1.77 ERA with quality peripherals through his first 20 1/3 MLB innings. He earned some higher-leverage work down the stretch but didn’t manage to build off that solid initial look in 2022.

The UNC-Wilmington product made 14 big league appearances last season. He allowed 10 runs in 16 innings this time around, striking out just 12.9% of opposing hitters. After inducing grounders on more than 53% of batted balls as a rookie, he saw that mark fall to a pedestrian 37.7% last season. As a result, Warren spent more time at Triple-A Salt Lake.

He tossed 34 frames over 27 outings of relief for the Bees. Warren posted a 2.12 ERA with a 54.3% ground-ball percentage over that stretch, faring much better than in his limited MLB work. He still didn’t miss many bats, though, striking out 20.7% of opponents against a lofty 11.7% walk percentage.

The Halos will now have a week to trade Warren or look to run him through waivers. He has two minor league option years remaining, so any team willing to devote him a spot on the 40-man roster could keep him in Triple-A for a couple seasons. Warren has never previously been waived and has less than three years of major league service, meaning the Halos would be able to keep him in the organization on an outright assignment if he goes unclaimed on waivers.

Angels Sign Brett Phillips To Major League Deal

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5:50pm: The Angels have now announced the move, making it official.

5:30pm: The Angels and outfielder Brett Phillips are in agreement on a one-year major league deal that will see him make $1.2MM. Phillips is a client of O’Connell Sports Management.

Phillips, 29 in May, has seen big league action in each of the past six seasons, spending time with the Brewers, Royals, Rays and Orioles. Though he’s never really been a huge threat at the plate, he’s provided value to those clubs with his defense and speed. His best season to date was 2021 with the Rays, where he hit 13 home runs and stole 14 bases. He struck out in a massive 38.7% of his plate appearances but also walked in 11.3% of them. He finished the year with a batting line of .206/.300/.427 and a wRC+ of 103, indicating he was 3% better than league average at the plate. He also got excellent grades for his glovework and was considered to be worth 2.3 wins above replacement by FanGraphs.

Unfortunately, the flaws in his game were a bit more exposed in 2022. His strikeout rate, which was already incredibly high, ticked north to 41.8% while his walk rate dipped to 7.1%. His batting line last year was .144/.217/.249, leading to an untenable wRC+ of 38. That frustrating season including getting designated for assignment by the Rays in August, which led to a trade to the Orioles. They outrighted him off the roster in August, but Phillips reached free agency at season’s end.

Phillips certainly has some drawbacks but there are plenty of admirable attributes as well. Statcast places his sprint speed in the 88th percentile, his outfield jump in the 99th and his arm strength in the 97th. That speed might be more useful this year with the new rules that are designed to encourage more base stealing. The limits on defensive shifts might also give him a boost at the plate since he was shifted on 88% of his plate appearances last year.

The Angels will likely be looking to implement Phillips in a part-time role off the bench, coming in for pinch running and defensive substitutions. The primary outfield should consist of Mike Trout in center flanked by Hunter Renfroe and Taylor Ward in the corners with Shohei Ohtani serving as the designated hitter most nights. The club also has Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell as outfield options on its 40-man roster, but both of them have struggled at the major league level thus far and each has an option year remaining, allowing them to be sent to the minors as depth if they don’t earn their way into larger roles.

Phillips is the latest in a series of moves that the Angels have made to improve the support for their star players. Despite having Trout and Ohtani and other stars over the years, the club has failed to live up to expectations due to shortcomings elsewhere on the roster, especially when injuries have tested their depth. The club has signed Tyler Anderson to helped their rotation and Carlos Estévez to bolster the bullpen. On the position player side, they traded for Renfroe and Gio Urshela while signing Brandon Drury and now Phillips.

Phillips doesn’t have any options, meaning he’ll have to stick on the roster or else be designated for assignment. However, he has just over three years of MLB service time and can be retained for future seasons via arbitration if he has a solid campaign for the Halos. This deal brings their payroll to around $206MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource, and a competitive balance tax calculation of $221MM. That payroll figure would be a franchise record, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, eclipsing the $189MM mark from last year. The CBT number puts them about $12MM shy of the lowest luxury tax threshold, which will be $233MM this year.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Phillips and the Angels were in agreement. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first added the $1.2MM salary.

Tigers Sign Chasen Shreve To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have signed left-hander Chasen Shreve to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league Spring Training. Shreve, a client of CAA Sports, can make up to $2MM if he’s in the majors. That comes in the form of a salary of $1.25MM if he makes it to the majors, with several incentives available based on innings pitched. He will get another $75K for getting to 20, 30, 35 and 40 innings pitched, $100K for 45 and 50 innings and $125K at 55 and 60 innings.

Shreve, 32, has pitched in the past nine major league seasons, spending time with the Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Mets and Pirates. For his career, he’s made 317 appearances with a 3.87 ERA, striking out a strong 25.6% of batters faced and getting grounders at a fairly average 41% clip. His 11.4% walk rate is on the high side, but he’s largely been able to work around that.

In 2022, he signed a minor league deal with the Mets and was selected to their Opening Day roster. Unfortunately, Shreve posted a 6.49 ERA in 25 games and was released by the club in July. There are reasons to suspect bad fortune played a significant role and that Chasen deserved much better. His 25.4% strikeout rate was still strong and his 8.8% walk rate was actually better than many of his other seasons. A low 62.9% strand rate probably helped push his ERA northwards, as did 20.7% of his fly balls going over the fence. The advanced metrics were much more fond of his work last year, including a 5.01 FIP, 3.68 xFIP and 3.42 SIERA.

It’s possible that this deal for Shreve was referenced by Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris this weekend. After the club traded Gregory Soto to the Phillies, Harris spoke to reporters and said the club was looking to bolster their left-handed relief options in the wake of that deal. “We are hard at work on” this new acquisition, Harris said. “It may not be a major league deal, but [it’s] someone we’re excited about.”

After the Soto deal, the club is fairly short on left-handed relievers. Eduardo Rodriguez, Tarik Skubal, Matthew Boyd and Joey Wentz will likely all be starting, leaving Tyler Alexander as the lone southpaw relief option. Even Alexander is more of a swingman, having started 42 of his 95 games thus far in his big league career. It makes plenty of sense that the Tigers would look to add a lefty reliever who has past success. The club isn’t seen as an especially likely contender in 2023 after they had such dismal results in 2022. If Shreve can make the team, he can provide a veteran stabilizing force in the ’pen while also potentially turning into a midseason trade candidate.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Shreve and the Tigers were in agreement on a minor league deal that could see him earn $2MM in the majors. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press added that the deal had been signed and also provided the specific breakdown of the financials.

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