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Archives for January 2023

Orioles Outright Chris Vallimont

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The Orioles announced this afternoon that righty Chris Vallimont has gone unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment last week. He was assigned outright to Triple-A Norfolk.

Vallimont, 26 in March, has yet to reach the major league level. A former Marlins draftee, he was dealt to the Twins in the 2019 deal that sent Lewin Díaz to Miami. Minnesota selected Vallimont onto their 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He was assigned to Double-A Wichita to start last season but struggled, allowing 24 runs through his first 19 innings. Minnesota took him off the 40-man and he landed with Baltimore after being snagged off waivers.

The O’s sent him directly to Norfolk. Vallimont started 12 of his 16 appearances for the Tides, putting up a 5.38 ERA across 72 frames. His 21.3% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk percentage were solid enough but he had a tough time stranding runners. Baltimore never recalled him for his MLB debut and took him off the 40-man when acquiring Ryan O’Hearn (whom they promptly designated for assignment to claim Díaz off waivers in a full-circle move).

This is the first career outright for Vallimont. He doesn’t have the right to refuse the assignment, so he’ll stick in the organization without occupying a 40-man roster spot. He could still be in camp as a non-roster Spring Training invitee and is likely to head to Norfolk to start the season as rotation depth.

Rafael Devers Extension Goes Into Effect In 2024 For Luxury Tax Purposes

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The Red Sox agreed to a massive contract extension with Rafael Devers last week, committing to their star third baseman into the 2030’s. The deal tacked on $313.5MM in new money to buy out ten would-be free agent seasons and keep Devers in Boston for the bulk of his career.

That $313.5MM was tacked onto a $17.5MM salary to which the parties had agreed the day before to avoid an arbitration hearing for his final season of eligibility. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports (Twitter link) the deal was structured to go into effect for the 2024 campaign, a notable development for luxury tax purposes. The average annual value of a contract counts against a team’s luxury tax ledger. Devers’ deal will come with a $17.5MM tax hit for the 2023 season — reflecting the previous one-year agreement — before recalculating for the 2024-33 campaigns bought out by the extension.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports some additional specifics on the extension. Devers receives a $20MM signing bonus, followed by his established $17.5MM salary in 2023. He receives salaries of $27.5MM annually from 2024-26, $31MM per year from 2027-30 and $29MM salaries between 2031-33.

According to Speier, some of that money will be deferred. Doing so will bring the deal’s luxury tax hit for the 2024-33 campaigns to a bit above $29MM. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that $7.5MM in salary will be deferred each season, and the deal’s net present value is actually at $291.53MM after accounting for those deferrals. According to Heyman, the deal also contains a one-time assignment bonus worth $2.5MM in the event Devers is traded. A ten-year, $313.5MM contract without any deferrals would’ve had a luxury tax number of $31.35MM.

That’s a small benefit to the Boston organization over the long haul. The more immediate relief for the club comes in structuring the agreement so Devers’ 2023 CBT number remains at $17.5MM. That’ll keep Boston’s overall tax number around $211MM after factoring in projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players. They’re roughly $22MM south of the $233MM base tax threshold, leaving them a fair bit of spending room before hitting that mark.

The Red Sox have set a press conference for tomorrow at 11:00 am EST to announce the deal. Devers, chairman Tom Werner, team president Sam Kennedy, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and skipper Alex Cora will all attend.

Padres Showing Interest In Nelson Cruz

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The Padres are among the teams with interest in Nelson Cruz, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The designated hitter is one of the more accomplished bats still available in free agency, though he’s coming off a career-worst 2022 campaign.

Cruz told reporters in the Dominican Republic last week that his camp had already received offers from clubs for what’ll be his age-42 season. The seven-time All-Star unsurprisingly didn’t reveal which clubs had put forth those offers, and it’s not clear whether San Diego is one of those teams. Cruz also didn’t specify whether he’s received major league offers or just non-roster invitations to big league camp.

It was a rough season for Cruz, who spent a year in Washington after inking a $15MM free agent deal. For the first time since 2007, he hit at a below-average level. Through 507 trips to the plate, the right-hander posted a .234/.314/.337 line with only 10 home runs. It was his lowest homer total in 14 years, thanks largely to a career-worst 52.4% grounder percentage. Cruz continued to hit the ball hard, averaging just under 91 MPH in exit velocity while posting a 45.7% hard contact rate that was around 10 points above the league average. Much of that contact was driven into the dirt, though, a suboptimal outcome for a lumbering slugger.

Cruz had shown some worrisome signs late in the 2021 season as well. Owner of a .294/.370/.537 line through the first few months in Minnesota, he stumbled to a .226/.283/.442 mark upon landing with the Rays in a deadline deal that sent Joe Ryan to the Twin Cities. Cruz had previously seemed ageless as he continued to mash into his 40’s, but he has just a .232/.304/.371 slash through 745 trips to the plate since that trade.

Health could’ve played a part in that dip in production. At year’s end, Cruz revealed he’d been playing through some inflammation in his left eye. The issue, which he said had been impacting his vision, required surgical repair in late October. That’s not expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training, though it offers a possible explanation for Cruz’s struggles of late. Of course, the fact that he’ll turn 43 in July raises questions about whether he’ll be able to bounce back.

That also figures to depress his asking price, as Cruz is surely looking at a paycut from last season. If he secures a big league deal, it’ll be a one-year pact that likely contains a fairly low base salary. That could him make him more palatable to a San Diego club that might be nearing its spending limit. The Friars are certain to pay the luxury tax for a third consecutive season and they’re roughly $6MM shy of the $273MM threshold that’d result in their top 2024 draft pick being pushed back ten spots, as estimated by Roster Resource.

Cruz is well-known to San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. The Friars baseball operations leader was a member of the Rangers scouting staff before landing in San Diego, a run that overlapped with Cruz breaking through as a regular in Arlington. They reportedly showed interest in Cruz last offseason before he signed with the Nats.

The 18-year MLB veteran had ample experience in the corner outfield early in his career. He’s been almost exclusively a DH for a half-decade, not logging a single inning of outfield action since 2018. Any team that brings him in would presumably do so with an eye towards giving him ample run at designated hitter, in addition to some pinch-hitting work. The Friars signed Matt Carpenter to a two-year guarantee earlier in the offseason and figure to deploy him at DH fairly frequently as things stand. Carpenter is capable of factoring in at the non-shortstop infield positions and can add some insurance to the corner outfield as well, which would open up DH time for Cruz if a deal were to come together.

Free Agent Profile: Franmil Reyes

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Franmil Reyes had a solid four-year run from 2018 through 2021. He struck out at an unhealthy 29.5% rate, but he also walked in 9% of his plate appearances. He hit 92 home runs in 529 games and produced a batting line of .260/.325/.503. That production was 19% above league average, as evidenced by his 119 wRC+, a figure that placed him in the top 65 among qualified league hitters. He was also fairly consistent, with his wRC+ never slipping below 111 in any season of that stretch and topping out at 129.

He qualified for arbitration for the first time after that 2021 season and agreed to a $4.55MM salary with the Guardians. Unfortunately, his consistent offensive production got away from him for the first time in 2022. His strikeout rate ticked up to 33.2% while his walk rate dipped to 6.3%. His power also seemed to diminish, as he hit just 14 home runs on the year after being around a 30-per-year pace in the earlier portion of his career. He finished the season with a slash line of .221/.273/.365 and a wRC+ of 80, indicating he was 20% below the league average hitter.

That swoon at the plate was untenable for a player like Reyes since his bat is his only carrying tool. He doesn’t bring anything in the speed or defense departments. He has managed six stolen bases in his career but his sprint speed was in the 20th percentile among qualified players last year. Defensively, he got over 500 innings in the outfield in 2018 and 2019 but got poor results and has been sent out to the grass less often recently. He spent less than 100 innings out there in both 2021 and 2022.

Given his one-dimensional profile, he needs to be clicking at the plate to be valuable. His struggles were strong enough last year that the Guardians put him on waivers in August. The Cubs put in a claim and let him play out the string for them, but he was outrighted at season’s end and elected free agency.

There’s no denying that the 2022 season was rough, but it’s possible it was merely a blip. He still clobbered the ball despite his struggles, with Statcast placing him in the 92nd percentile in terms of average exit velocity last year. He also ranked in the 85th percentile in terms of maximum exit velocity, 79th in hard hit rate and 80th in terms of barrel rate. It seems the tools are still there for some team that can find a better way of utilizing them.

It’s possible that the league changed its plan of attack against Reyes. According to Statcast, 33.7% of the pitches he saw in 2021 were breaking balls. That shot up to 40% in 2022, with fastballs and offspeed pitches coming across less often. Reyes posted a batting average of .219 against those breaking pitches in 2021 with a .521 slugging percentage, but those numbers dropped to .191 and .321 last year.

That change in approach could have been responsible for his increased strikeouts. His chase percentage went from 25.8% to 28.4%. Not only did he chase more, he did worse when he did. His chase contact rate went from 49.5% in 2021 to to just 36% last year. That came despite the fact that 50.4% of the pitches he saw were in the zone, a slight increase from the 48.1% rate of the year before. He also went up hacking throughout the year as his first pitch swing rate went to 34.5%, a few ticks above his 30% rate from the year before and the 29.5% league average. Perhaps he was getting more breaking balls to begin at-bats or he merely went up looking to smash a fastball before he got deeper into the count. Pitchers also threw 61.3% of first pitches in the zone, an uptick on the 55.4% clip from the year before. So, more first-pitch strikes, more first-pitch swings, but more strikeouts and less power.

While all this led to a pretty gloomy year for Reyes, it’s possible that he could adjust to this new plan of attack and get back to the hitter he was before. As mentioned, the tools still seem to be there in terms of crushing the ball. If he can alter his approach and get his strikeouts down a few points, it’s possible he could again be a feared middle-of-the-order slugger. The fact that Reyes is primarily a designated hitter surely limits his market, but there could still be fits. Even if Reyes can’t find a full-time job, serving as a bench bat and/or the short side of a platoon could be an option. He was equally poor against both righties and lefties in 2022 but has been stronger with the platoon advantage over his career, posting a 125 wRC+ against southpaws and a 104 otherwise.

For a rebuilding team like the Reds, they have a handful of lefties in their corner outfield/designated hitter mix, including TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley. While Joey Votto is questionable for Opening Day, that might leave first base open for players like Wil Myers and Tyler Stephenson, perhaps leaving some at-bats for Reyes. The Tigers currently have a strongly left-handed outfield with Austin Meadows, Riley Greene, Akil Baddoo and Kerry Carpenter all hitting from that side. Adding Reyes would further squeeze out Miguel Cabrera in what could be his final season, but he’s probably not ticketed for full-time duty anyway. The Rangers don’t really have a strict designated hitter right now, with Mitch Garver potentially playing there when healthy and not catching. Otherwise, left-hander Brad Miller and his career 67 wRC+ against lefties could be the frontrunner. The Diamondbacks have a lot of lefties and added Evan Longoria as a veteran righty. He’ll likely be DHing while splitting third base with Josh Rojas, but one injury elsewhere on the diamond means they’re both ticketed for everyday infield duty. The A’s have very few players locked into jobs, and some of their most-established guys are lefties like Seth Brown, Tony Kemp and Jace Peterson.

Nelson Cruz, another bat-only player, recently said he had received offers for 2023. He has a more impressive track record than Reyes but he’s going to turn 43 in the upcoming season and is also coming off a down year. Reyes will be turning 28 in July and shouldn’t cost much. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $6MM before being cut loose by the Cubs. The fact that Reyes cleared waivers and was outrighted suggests that no one wanted him at that price point and he could be signed for something beneath that figure. He could also be retained via arbitration for 2024 in the event he has a bounceback season, since he’s currently between four and five years of MLB service time. He even has options and could be sent down to the minors, though players who reach five years of service can’t be optioned without their consent. Reyes is at 4.115 and would cross that five-year threshold after a couple of months in the majors, since a new “year” starts at 172 days.

Rockies Agree To Minor League Deals With Ty Blach, Josh Rogers

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The Rockies have brought in a pair of left-handers — Ty Blach and Josh Rogers — on minor league contracts, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com (Twitter link). Both pitchers will be in big league camp as non-roster invitees.

Blach returns for a second season with the Rox. A Denver native, he signed a non-roster pact last winter. The veteran made the Opening Day roster and spent the year as a long relief option for skipper Bud Black. Blach threw 44 1/3 innings across 24 appearances, working to a 5.89 ERA. He only struck out 15% of opponents but walked a minuscule 5.7% of batters faced and put up a decent 43% ground-ball rate. At the end of the season, Colorado ran him through outright waivers. He elected minor league free agency but has now circled back to Colorado for another year.

The 32-year-old has never been overpowering. Blach sits in the low-90s with his fastball and doesn’t miss many bats. He’s typically shown solid control and kept the ball on the ground over parts of five big league campaigns. Blach had a fair bit of run as a starting pitcher with the division-rival Giants between 2017-18. It’s possible he gets a look as rotation depth or battles for the kind of multi-inning role out of the bullpen he had last season.

It’s a similar story with Rogers. As with Blach, he’s a soft-tossing control specialist. Rogers has pitched at the MLB level in four of the last five seasons. He spent his first two campaigns with the Orioles, starting three of eight appearances. After not reaching the majors in 2020, he returned late in 2021 with the Nationals. Rogers posted a 3.28 ERA over six starts for a rebuilding Washington club late in the year, securing his spot on the 40-man roster over the following offseason.

The 28-year-old returned to Washington last season but didn’t recapture his prior year’s success. Working out of the bullpen for all but three of his 16 outings, he allowed a 5.13 ERA through 26 1/3 frames. His 10.6% strikeout rate narrowly topped his 9.7% walk percentage and he surrendered just over two homers per nine innings. Washington let him go shortly after the trade deadline.

Rogers hooked on with the Marlins on a minor league pact after that. He got the ball nine times with their top affiliate in Jacksonville, putting up a 4.75 ERA across 47 1/3 frames. Miami never gave him a big league look, and he returned to free agency at season’s end. He’ll join Blach in serving as rotation or long relief depth with Colorado.

Royals Sign Kohl Stewart To Minor League Deal

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The Royals announced agreement with righty Kohl Stewart on a minor league deal this afternoon. Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Stewart isn’t likely to be in big league camp as he continues to rehab from an elbow injury that cut his 2021 season short.

Stewart sat out the entire 2022 campaign, ostensibly due to the aforementioned elbow concern. It’s not clear whether he ever underwent surgery or attempted to rehab without going under the knife. In either event, Stewart hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch since the Cubs placed him on the 60-day injured list in July 2021 with what the club announced as elbow inflammation. Chicago ran him through outright waivers at the start of that offseason rather than reinstate him to their 40-man roster. He remained a minor league free agent until today.

The 28-year-old is a former top five draftee, going fourth overall to the Twins in 2013. Stewart spent five seasons climbing the minor league ladder before briefly appearing at the MLB level with Minnesota between 2018-19. He started six of 19 appearances over those two years, working to a 4.79 ERA through 62 innings. The Twins let him go at the end of the latter season, and he hooked on with the Orioles on a split deal.

Stewart, a Type 1 diabetic, opted out of the 2020 campaign due to concerns over COVID-19. He never threw a pitch as an Oriole, as the team let him go at the end of the year. As a free agent, he found a big league deal with the Cubs. Stewart started three of four outings with Chicago, allowing 12 runs in 13 2/3 innings before the injury issues intervened.

All told, the Houston native owns a 4.88 ERA over 75 2/3 major league frames. He’s fanned a below-average 13.6% of opponents against a slightly elevated 9.6% walk rate. Over parts of four Triple-A campaigns, he owns a 4.65 ERA in 162 2/3 innings. The sinkerballer had a strong prospect pedigree for a while, however, and he’s induced grounders on over half the batted balls he’s allowed in the big leagues.

Precisely when Stewart will be ready for a return to pitching isn’t clear. Once he’s healthy, he’ll offer the Royals some rotation or long relief depth. He’ll presumably head to Triple-A Omaha at some point during the 2023 season and try to work back to the MLB level.

Scott Oberg Announces Retirement From Playing

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Pitcher Scott Oberg took to Instagram today to announce that he will no longer be pursuing a comeback to the mound. “I have accepted a part-time position with the Rockies and will no longer be pursuing the game I’ve loved my whole life, as a player,” Oberg said in the post. He goes on to thank the many people in his life who helped him in his journey over the years. Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette reports that Oberg will be a special assistant to baseball operations for the Rockies.

Oberg, now 32, was selected by the Rockies in the 15th round of the 2012 draft and made it to the big leagues by 2015. His first three seasons in Colorado featured subpar strikeout rates but he did get huge amounts of ground balls. From 2015 to 2017, he posted a 5.05 ERA while striking out 18.7% of batters he faced but getting worm burners on 55.6% of balls in play.

The next two seasons saw Oberg take a huge step forward as he added punchouts to his repertoire. Over 2018 and 2019, he tossed 114 2/3 frames with a 2.35 ERA, a number that would be impressive anywhere but especially for a pitcher who calls Coors Field home. He struck out 25.5% of batters faced in that time while still getting grounders at a 52.7% clip. Based on that strong performance, the Rockies gave him a three-year, $13MM extension with a club option for 2023.

Unfortunately, Oberg then began a tumultuous period that saw him deal with multiple health issues which have prevented him from taking the mound since then. The primary issue has been blood clots in his right arm, which first sidelined him and led to surgery in 2016. They sent him to the injured list in August of 2019, leading to another surgery and an end to that strong season. That didn’t dissuade the Rockies from agreeing to that extension and Oberg seemed ready to get back on track in 2020 until the issue resurfaced, putting him on the injured list in the shortened season and putting him on the surgeon’s table yet again.

On top of the blood clots, he also required surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in September of that year. It was hoped that surgery would address the chronic blood clots in his elbow but that didn’t prove to be the case. Allentuck relayed a harrowing story from March of 2021 where the clotting symptoms reappeared and a trainer couldn’t feel a pulse in his wrist. Oberg then spent the night in the ICU and had surgery the next morning, the fourth time he had to go under the knife for the issue.

Though he would not pitch for the Rockies that year, he did serve the team in other ways, doing some scouting and coaching throughout the organization. He didn’t make it back to the mound in 2022 either and the Rockies declined his 2023 option at season’s end.

Oberg has been transitioning into post-playing roles for a while, as mentioned, but his announcement today makes it official that his playing days are done. Though the health issues prevented him from building on some strong momentum, he still managed to get into 259 major league games, racking up 234 strikeouts along the way. He finishes his career with a 3.85 ERA over 257 1/3 innings. MLBTR congratulates him on his successes and wishes him the best in his future endeavors.

Looking Through The Guardians’ Outfield Possibilities

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The Guardians surprised most onlookers by sprinting to an AL Central title last season, pulling away from the Twins and White Sox with an excellent September. Cleveland quickly dispatched the Rays in the Wild Card series before losing a closely contested Division Series against the Yankees.

There were myriad reasons for the Guardians’ success. Recurring themes were plus defense around the diamond and a general willingness to trust young position players to run with their opportunities. That was also the case in the outfield, a unit that was average overall but had a couple standout players.

Cleveland seems mostly content running things back with the same group. The Guardians have added at catcher and first base, bringing in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell via free agency. They’ve not gone outside the organization for an outfielder to this point. One could argue for adding a veteran bat considering most of the in-house candidates have limited MLB track records, and perhaps Cleveland eventually adds a lower-cost depth type like Chad Pinder or Robbie Grossman. There’s probably not an impact player coming, though, so it’s worth looking through the numerous in-house options who could vie for playing time on the Progressive Field grass.

Kwan is the most established of the Cleveland outfielders after a stellar rookie season. He hadn’t been a top-tier prospect early in his professional career but continued excellence as a minor leaguer garnered him a spot on FanGraphs’ top 100 going into last season. Kwan even exceeded those expectations, hitting .298/.373/.400 with more walks than strikeouts over his first 638 MLB plate appearances. He paired that with elite defensive marks in left field, earning a Gold Glove and a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting in the process. Kwan has below-average power but does everything else so well he looks like a perfect top-of-the-lineup option for manager Terry Francona. So long as he’s healthy, the Oregon State product is the Guardians left fielder.

Straw seems likely to get another crack in center field, at least initially. Acquired from the Astros at the 2021 trade deadline, Straw stepped in as Cleveland’s primary center fielder from there forward. He’s an elite defender and baserunner and looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, combining for a .271/.349/.348 slash between the two teams. The Guardians rewarded him last spring with a $25MM contract extension that runs at least through the 2026 campaign.

The 28-year-old’s first full season in Cleveland was mixed. He continued to play excellent defense, with Statcast crediting him for 13 outs above average for his work in center field. Like Kwan, Straw secured his first Gold Glove. The offensive output plummeted though. He hit only .221/.273/.291 across 596 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, only Jonathan Schoop and Geraldo Perdomo were less effective hitters (minimum 500 PA’s).

Straw posted some of the league’s worst batted ball metrics and didn’t connect on a single home run. His defense and baserunning means he doesn’t need to hit much to be a worthwhile everyday player, but the Cleveland front office is surely hoping for a little more output at the plate. Straw doesn’t seem in imminent danger of losing his job, but posting another sub-.600 OPS through the All-Star Break could lead the front office to consider deadline possibilities to add a little more offensive firepower in center field.

Gonzalez, who turns 25 today, was yet another success story in a loaded Cleveland rookie class. The right-handed hitter posted a .282/.308/.506 line through 41 games at Triple-A Columbus to earn his first MLB call in late May. He stuck in the majors from then on and immediately hit the ground running. Over 382 trips to the plate, Gonzalez hit .296/.327/.461 with 11 home runs and 27 doubles. He had a couple heroic moments in the playoffs as well, connecting on the walk-off home run to eliminate Tampa Bay and a game-winning two-run single against the Yankees. Those clutch hits overshadowed a mediocre .226/.250/.323 overall batting line in 32 postseason plate appearances.

It was a strong enough season to put himself on the map as a potential long-term piece in the Cleveland outfield, and he’s the likeliest player to open the year in right. Yet there’s a fair bit less certainty in Gonzalez sustaining his excellent rookie form than there’ll be in Kwan’s case. Gonzalez has never been a favorite of most prospect evaluators thanks to questions about his aggressive approach and below-average corner outfield defense. Cleveland left him unprotected in advance of the Rule 5 draft as recently as the 2021-22 offseason as a result.

Gonzalez’s great year quiets those concerns to some extent, but they’re not completely answered. He swung at nearly half the pitches outside the strike zone he saw as a rookie, placing him near the top of the league in that regard. His 3.9% walk percentage was among the lowest in the game. Perhaps Gonzalez has special enough hand-eye coordination and power that it won’t matter. He’ll need to prove it in a second extended run against MLB arms.

If Kwan, Straw and Gonzalez is Cleveland’s Opening Day outfield, Brennan seems the player most likely to break into the mix off the bench. The left-handed hitter fits the Guardians’ mold of high-contact bats, having never struck out at even a 17% clip at any minor league stop. He went down on strikes just 12.2% of the time at Triple-A last season, hitting .316/.367/.471 with nine home runs and 15 steals across 433 plate appearances. He earned a late-season MLB look and played well in his first 11 games.

Baseball America ranked Brennan the #10 prospect in a deep Cleveland farm system this offseason. The outlet praises his contact skills, athleticism and arm strength but questions his power potential. Brennan can play center field but BA suggests he’s probably a stronger defensive fit in the corner outfield. It’s easy to point to some similarities between him and Kwan, although the latter’s minor league track record was a little better. Brennan’s likely a better hitter than Straw right now and could be a candidate to take increased center field reps if Straw continues to struggle offensively — particularly since Straw can come off the bench later in games when the Guardians are looking for their best defensive unit to protect a lead.

A bat-first utility option, Palacios also made his MLB debut in 2022. He didn’t break in as well as most of the other Cleveland rookies, hitting .232/.293/.286 without a longball in his first 123 trips to the dish. It wasn’t a great first look but Palacios had a quality .279/.371/.458 line with better than average strikeout and walk marks through 45 games at Triple-A. He can play the corner outfield spots and offer some depth on the right side of the infield.

Valera, 22, is more likely a midseason possibility than a candidate to break camp. He’s on the 40-man roster but only has 42 games of Triple-A experience. After a strong Double-A showing, he hit .221/.324/.448 with nine homers in 179 plate appearances at the top minor league level, walking at a quality 12.3% clip against a 25.1% strikeout rate. Valera is the #4 prospect in the organization at BA and regarded as a potential high-OBP corner outfielder at his peak; whether he’ll be ready to contribute to a win-now Cleveland club at any point in 2023 depends on how well he shows in his first full season at Triple-A.

A former first-round draftee, Benson is a high-risk upside play at the back of the 40-man roster. His minor league track record has been wildly inconsistent. He’s coming off a great 2022 showing in Triple-A, where he mashed at a .278/.426/.522 clip with 17 homers and 16 steals through 401 plate appearances. He earned a brief MLB look but sputtered to a .168/.252/.200 line over 28 games. The left-handed hitter has always intrigued with massive power potential in a 6’5″ frame and a very discerning eye at the plate. That’s been paired with huge strikeout tallies at times throughout his minor league career, although he only fanned in a roughly average 22.7% of his trips in Columbus last year.

That’s seven players, all of whom are on the 40-man roster and controllable for a long while. Cleveland’s particularly deep in left-handed options (only Straw and Gonzalez hit from the right side). There was enough depth in that regard the Guardians felt comfortable sending Nolan Jones — another lefty bat who profiled as a corner outfielder with José Ramírez entrenched at third base in Cleveland — to Colorado for infield prospect Juan Brito.

While there’s an abundance of interesting controllable outfield options in Cleveland, none has a lengthy track record of big league productivity. Kwan looks like the safest bet after his fantastic rookie year. Everyone else comes with question marks of varying degrees.

Straw and Gonzalez seem likely to get the first crack at jobs alongside Kwan again, though they’ll have some intriguing young players on hand as contingency plans. Supplementing the group with a veteran righty bat could be a nice luxury addition for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and his staff before the season gets underway. Any pickup would figure to be a low-cost complement to Cleveland’s various in-house young players, who’ll again be entrusted with significant roles as they look to repeat as division champs.

Mariners Add Stephen Vogt To Coaching Staff

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The Mariners have announced their coaching staff for 2023, with only a couple of changes compared to 2022. Trent Blank will move from his role as bullpen coach to a new title of major league coach and director of pitching strategy. Stephen Vogt, who just retired from playing a few months ago, will join the staff as quality control coach and take over Blank’s bullpen coach duties.

Vogt, 38, makes a quick transition to coaching after a lengthy playing career. Originally selected by the Rays in the 12th round of the 2007 draft, he went on to play 794 games in the majors for the Rays, A’s, Brewers, Giants, Diamondbacks and Braves. In September of 2022, while playing with Oakland, he announced that he would retire from playing once that season was completed.

The fact that he has now made a quick leap into coaching just a few months later shouldn’t come as a shock. Vogt has been open about his future managerial aspirations for some time, discussing the matter back in 2020. Vogt has also drawn praise about his managerial potential from current skippers. “Definitely has a future in managing,” were the words used by Bob Melvin, current Padres manager and formerly with the A’s, when speaking to Janie McAuley of the Associated Press last year. Current A’s manager Mark Kotsay also had praise for Vogt, speaking to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle in October. “I do think he’d be a good manager,” Kotsay said. “Big personality. Gamer. Intense. Driven. You could see all those traits. Catchers seem to make great managers. They see the game from a different perspective. One of my best friends, who’s manager of the Brewers, Craig Counsell, said Stephen is probably going to be the next manager of the Brewers.”

Though many are predicting that Vogt will wind up a bench boss eventually, it seems he’ll start by getting his feet wet in the Mariners’ bullpen in 2023.

Trevor Story Underwent Internal Brace Surgery On Right Elbow

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3:10pm: Bloom didn’t provide a specific timeline on Story for the upcoming season, noting that a return is possible “but it’s not something at this stage we want to bank on,” per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Bloom also said Story was preparing to play shortstop before aggravating his elbow, per Speier.

2:50: Red Sox infielder Trevor Story had internal brace surgery on his right elbow yesterday, per a release from the team. “Boston Red Sox infielder Trevor Story yesterday underwent a successful internal bracing procedure of the right ulnar collateral ligament (elbow),” the statement reads. “Dr. Keith Meister performed the surgery at Texas Metroplex Institute in Arlington, Texas.” Chris Cotillo of MassLive. reported the surgery shortly before the official announcement and adds that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will speak at 4pm Eastern/3pm Central.

The club has not provided a timeline on Story’s expected recovery, with that information perhaps to come when Bloom speaks. Until that information comes out, we can only speculate on the timeline, but it’s worth pointing out that the UCL is the same ligament that is replaced in Tommy John surgery. The internal brace procedure is generally considered to be less invasive and allow players to return quicker, but the recovery period still usually takes months. For one recent example, outfielder Eli White underwent the procedure while a member of the Rangers last year, with the club announcing at that time that White was expected to miss six months. Each player is unique and will have their own responses to different injuries, but it seems fair to assume that Story is slated for a significant absence of some kind.

For Story, there have been concerns swirling around his throwing arm for some time now. He made 11 throwing errors while with the Rockies in 2021, with some scouts expressing trepidation about this throws after that season. Statcast’s new arm strength leaderboard ranked Story as averaging 79.1 mph on his throws from short, a mark that placed him 52nd out of 58 shortstops to make at least 100 throws that year. That was a noticeable drop from 2020, when Story was at 82.3 mph and ranked 22nd out of 34 shortstops who made 100 throws.

Despite those concerns, the Sox signed Story to a six-year, $140MM deal going into 2022. At the time of the signing, Story was expected to play second base in deference to shortstop Xander Bogaerts, but it was also seen as a possible safety net for a Bogaerts departure. Since Bogaerts had the ability to opt out of his deal after 2022, the Sox would then have the option of sliding Story to the other side of the bag to replace him.

The position change gave Story and the Sox a year to evaluate things, with Story making shorter throws from second. He averaged 76.1 mph on his throws last year, which was another drop from the year before and placed him 61st among 70 second basemen to make 100 throws on the year. On top of that, the Sox indeed saw Bogaerts opt out of his contract and sign with the Padres this winter.

Though Story’s timeline is still to be determined, it seems like the Sox will now have to figure out how to navigate their middle infield without Bogaerts or Story, at least for a few months. If the club decides to stick with internal options, they could go with Enrique Hernández and Christian Arroyo, though Hernandez seemed ticketed to be the everyday center fielder, so they would have to figure out a solution there. Jarren Duran would be an option to take over in center, though he struggled in 2022 by hitting just .221/.283/.363. There are some other infielders on the roster such as David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdez, though they’ve only recently been added and have no major league experience.

It’s also possible the club could look for external upgrades. The top free agent options are all off the board, assuming today’s Carlos Correa deal with the Twins is the one that finally gets across the finish line. Elvis Andrus, Josh Harrison and Andrelton Simmons are some of the middle infield options still on the board, if the Sox decide to go that route. On the trade market, there are some players who could be available, such as Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Yankees, though an inter-division trade might be tricky. Amed Rosario of the Guardians has been mentioned as a speculative candidate, as has Nick Madrigal of the Cubs. The Sox and Marlins have reportedly discussed Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas in trade talks, so perhaps those discussions could be revisited in light of today’s news.

However the Sox approach it, it seems fair to say that they have been dealt a blow for 2023. Despite being hurt in 2022, Story still hit 16 home runs in 94 games and slashed .238/.303/.434. One silver lining of the surgery is that there’s at least an explanation for his diminished arm strength. If the surgery is successful in repairing his ligament and he’s able to get back into form, perhaps he can take over the shortstop position later in the year. Story’s contract runs through 2027 but he has the ability to opt out after 2025, with the Sox then able to negate the opt-out by tacking on another year and keeping him through 2028.

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