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Blue Jays Sign Chad Green

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The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Chad Green to a deal that will reportedly guarantee him $8.5MM over two years. He will make $2.25MM in 2023 and then Jays will then have the option of triggering a $27MM option for the next three years, with up to $1MM in bonuses. If they decline, Green’s player option for 2024 will be for $6.25MM with $2MM in bonuses. If he declines that, the Jays can trigger a two-year, $21MM option with $1MM in bonuses. Since player options are considered guaranteed, the $8.5MM figure comes from the 2023 salary and 2024 player option. Green is a Frontline client.

Green, 32 in May, has been serving as a quality reliever for the Yankees for the past seven seasons but was sidelined in May of last year and underwent Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter. This deal provides both parties with a bit security for the future. If Green comes back healthy and looks like his old self, the Jays can get some long-term value out of their investment by keeping him around for future seasons. If Green should suffer some kind of setback or struggle to get back on track in his return, he will at least be able to lock in some salary for 2024.

An 11th round draft pick of the Tigers in 2013, Green and Luis Cessa went to the Yankees in the December 2015 trade that sent Justin Wilson to Detroit. He was primarily a starter at that time and made his MLB debut in 2016 in a swing capacity. That was essentially the end of his time as a true starter, as the Yanks converted him to relief on a full-time basis. He did make one start in 2017 and 15 in 2019, but those were of the “opener” variety, none of them longer than two innings.

Since making that transition, he has somewhat quietly been one of the most effective relievers in the league. Over the past six major league seasons, he’s pitched 338 innings over 260 total appearances with a 2.96 ERA, striking out 33.4% of batters faced while walking just 6.1%. Among relievers to throw over 300 innings in that stretch, he ranks fourth in strikeout rate, trailing only elite guys Josh Hader, Edwin Díaz and Liam Hendriks and coming in ahead of Kenley Jansen and Ryan Pressly. Green was never given the closer’s role due to the presence of Aroldis Chapman, tallying just 11 saves in his career so far, but he does have 52 holds.

The Tommy John surgery was quite poorly timed for Green, as he was just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He would have been one of the top relievers this offseason if not for that. However, if he can return to the mound and post results similar to those already on his track record, he’ll still wind up with a nice payday. After making $2.25MM this year, if he Jays pick up that three-year option, he’ll get to $29.25MM in earnings. That’ll be just a bit shy of some other deals for notable relievers this offseason, such as the $32MM for Jansen, $33MM for Taylor Rogers and $34.5MM for Rafael Montero.

For the Jays, this won’t affect their bullpen immediately but it will potentially give them a boost at some point later this year. They will likely have Jordan Romano in the closer’s role, with other high-leverage jobs going to pitchers like Yimi García, Erik Swanson, Anthony Bass and Tim Mayza. Once Green is able to return, he will jump into the mix with that group. The Jays will now have two pitchers potentially bolstering their staff midway through the upcoming campaign, as Hyun Jin Ryu also underwent TJS last year and is targeting a return around the All-Star break.

Financially, this nudges the Jays slightly farther into luxury tax territory. Roster Resource now pegs their competitive balance tax figure at $246MM, about $13MM beyond the $233MM threshold. As a first-time payor in the lowest tax bracket, the club is subject to a 20% tax on its overages, currently just over $2.5MM.

Michael Marino of Fantrax first reported the Jays and Green were in agreement. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet for had the $8.5MM guarantee and presence of options for 2025 and 2026, as well as later adding the breakdown of the options (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first added the complex option framework and that Green passed his physical (Twitter links).

Mariners Re-Sign Taylor Williams To Minor League Contract

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The Mariners announced a number of non-roster Spring Training invitees this afternoon. Among those in camp are reliever Taylor Williams and catcher Brian O’Keefe, meaning both have signed minor league deals to return to the organization.

Williams has 97 MLB appearances to his name, splitting that over four clubs. The right-hander broke into the big leagues with Milwaukee and landed with Seattle for the 2020 campaign. He struck out 19 in 13 2/3 innings through the first month-plus of the shortened season. With Seattle out of playoff contention, they flipped him to the Padres in a deal that netted then-prospect Matt Brash. It proved a coup for Seattle, as Brash quickly blossomed into a highly-regarded talent and now looks a key piece of the Seattle relief corps moving forward.

San Diego got just five outings from Williams, as he lost most of the 2021 season battling a knee injury. The Friars waived him in September 2021, and he had brief stints in the Marlins’ and Giants’ organizations before returning to the Mariners via minor league deal last summer. The 31-year-old posted a 1.14 ERA over 23 2/3 innings for Triple-A Tacoma, racking up grounders at an incredible 60% clip. With the Mariners overloaded with bullpen depth, he never got an MLB look but impressed the front office enough to get another crack this spring.

Seattle still has an excellent relief corps. The offseason trade of Erik Swanson in the Teoscar Hernández deal subtracted one player from the mix, but Seattle added the out-of-options Trevor Gott on a free agent contract. He joins Paul Sewald, Andrés Muñoz, Diego Castillo, Penn Murfee and Brash as virtual locks for the season-opening group. Matt Festa is out of options himself and probably cracks the roster, while one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen could take a long relief role if not traded before Opening Day given Seattle’s rotation depth. The M’s also have offseason trade acquisition Justin Topa and nabbed Tayler Saucedo off waivers from the Mets today.

That’s a deep collection of arms, meaning Williams and other non-roster invitees like Casey Sadler, Nick Margevicius, Ryder Ryan and Riley O’Brien could have an uphill battle to the roster. Most of that group is likely to start the season with the Rainiers. Williams is out of options himself, so if he cracks the MLB roster at any point, he’d have to stick in the majors or be made available to other clubs via trade or waivers.

O’Keefe is a 29-year-old backstop who played in two games for the M’s last year. He picked up a hit and a walk in his first four MLB plate appearances. The righty-swinging catcher had a decent .253/.330/.449 line with 13 homers over 352 trips to the dish with Tacoma last year. He joins Jacob Nottingham as non-roster catchers with previous big league experience. Seattle has Cal Raleigh and Tom Murphy as their catching duo but no additional depth on the 40-man at the moment.

Blue Jays Add Jeff Ware To MLB Coaching Staff

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The Blue Jays announced this afternoon that Jeff Ware has been added to the coaching staff as an assistant to pitching coach Pete Walker with focus on the bullpen. Meanwhile, David Howell is moving from pitching strategist to assistant pitching/strategy coach.

Ware replaces Matt Buschmann, the former bullpen coach who departed the organization two weeks ago. The 52-year-old has coached in the Toronto farm system since 2014. He opened last year as pitching coach with their top affiliate in Buffalo. Midseason, Ware took over the Buffalo dugout as the Bisons’ interim manager when skipper Casey Candaele was called up as Jays’ interim bench coach after Toronto’s managerial change from Charlie Montoyo to John Schneider.

Howell, headed into his second season on an MLB staff, is just 25 years old. A graduate of the University of Minnesota in 2018, he spent a year as a graduate assistant at LSU before joining the Blue Jays in 2020. He spent that season working with minor league pitchers at the alternate training site and the ’21 campaign at the team’s rookie complex before making the jump to the majors.

The rest of the Jays’ staff has already been finalized. Schneider signed a three-year contract as manager and is headed into his first full season as an MLB skipper. He tabbed longtime manager Don Mattingly as his bench coach, while Walker and Guillermo Martinez are back as pitching and hitting coach, respectively. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com lists the entirety of the Jays’ 14-man staff.

White Sox, Nate Mondou Agree To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox are signing infielder Nate Mondou to a minor league contract, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. It’s unclear whether he’ll get a look in big league camp.

Mondou had spent his entire career with the Oakland organization. A 13th-round draftee of the A’s in 2016, the Wake Forest product reached Triple-A by the start of the 2021 campaign. He spent most of the past two years with their top affiliate in Las Vegas, posting remarkably similar numbers in both seasons. Mondou followed up a .282/.371/.432 showing in 2021 with a .283/.374/.431 line last year. He posted better than average strikeout and walk numbers in both seasons but hit for modest power in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

That consistency earned Mondou a cup of coffee at the end of a lost season in Oakland. He earned a promotion for the final week of the year and got a start at second base, going 0-3 with a walk. That’s his lone big league appearance thus far in his career. Oakland outrighted him off the 40-man roster after the season and he elected minor league free agency upon going unclaimed.

The White Sox’s collection of uncertain second base options has drawn plenty of attention. Chicago watched Josh Harrison and Danny Mendick depart and didn’t address the keystone with a major league addition. Romy González and Lenyn Sosa seem likely to jockey for the reps, with multi-positional veteran Leury García on hand as a possibility. The Sox are bringing Hanser Alberto and Erik González to camp with what’d seem to be a decent chance for either to crack the Opening Day roster.

Mondou slots in behind them on the depth chart, likely starting the season at Triple-A Charlotte. He’s a .283/.373/.432 hitter at that level. Primarily a second baseman, Mondou has also played third base, left field and sparse time at shortstop in the minors.

Astros, Ty Buttrey Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Astros have agreed to a minor league contract with reliever Ty Buttrey, as first reported by Sam Blum of the Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll get a non-roster look in big league camp this spring.

Buttrey has pitched in parts of three MLB seasons, all of which came as a member of the Angels. His best season came in 2019, when he provided the Halos 72 1/3 innings of 3.98 ERA ball with a 27.2% strikeout rate out of the bullpen. He had a rough go during the shortened 2020 campaign, though, striking out just 16.1% of batters faced en route to a 5.81 ERA through 26 1/3 innings.

While Buttrey could’ve still factored into the MLB bullpen the next season, he stepped away from the game just before Opening Day. Buttrey noted at the time he “couldn’t help but notice that (his) love and passion for this game had started to diminish.” He sat out the 2021 campaign but made a comeback effort last winter. The Halos welcomed him back onto the 40-man roster but kept him in Triple-A Salt Lake to start the season.

The 29-year-old struggled immensely through his first couple months with the Bees. After allowing nine runs through his first 12 1/3 frames, he was designated for assignment in June. Buttrey went unclaimed on waivers and closed out the year on an outright assignment to Salt Lake. He concluded the season with a 5.94 ERA through 36 1/3 frames, posting a below-average 17.9% strikeout percentage and a hefty 13.7% walk rate. Buttrey generated grounders on half the batted balls he allowed, but he’d need to improve upon the strikeout and walk numbers to earn a big league look.

Buttrey will try to demonstrate better form in camp with the Astros. He admitted at the time of his DFA last summer he “(had) work to do to get … back to peak form” in the wake of his season away. With another offseason of preparation, he’ll look to crack a role in a strong Houston bullpen. The Astros have a number of bullpen spots sewn up, with Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Héctor Neris, Bryan Abreu, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton locked into roles if healthy. Seth Martinez figures to have the inside track at another job, while Houston could also look to integrate a left-hander into that righty-heavy mix. Buttrey joins southpaw Austin Davis as an experienced non-roster player who’ll get a look in Spring Training.

Blue Jays Designate Matt Gage For Assignment

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The Blue Jays have designated reliever Matt Gage for assignment, the club announced. The move opens a 40-man roster spot for Chad Green, who has officially signed his two-year deal.

Gage, 30 next month, played eight seasons in the minor leagues after entering the professional ranks as a 10th-round pick of the Giants in 2014. Signed to a minor league contract by the Jays last offseason, the Siena product had a breakout year for Triple-A Buffalo. He worked to a 2.34 ERA over 42 1/3 innings of relief for the Bisons, striking out 27.4% of opponents with a 47% grounder rate. Gage’s 9.5% walk percentage was the only yellow flag, though that was just a hair north of average.

That production earned him his first major league call last June. He got into 11 MLB games, working 13 innings of four-run ball. Gage induced grounders on half the batted balls he allowed. The 6’3″ hurler had a modest 12:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his limited big league time but induced swinging strikes on over 14% of his pitches. He relied on a low-90s four-seam and a mid-80s cutter during his big league work.

Gage held left-handed hitters to a laughable .086/.149/.111 line in 88 Triple-A plate appearances last year. Righties hit .271 with a .363 on-base percentage but only mustered a .355 slugging mark. That could appeal to clubs looking to stockpile left-handed relief depth. Gage has two minor league option years remaining, so any team willing to keep him on the 40-man roster could stash him in Triple-A for the foreseeable future. The Jays will have a week to deal him or look to run him through waivers.

Rangers GM Chris Young Discusses Closer Options

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The Rangers were active this offseason in overhauling their rotation for 2023. Martín Pérez was set to hit free agency but was given a $19.65MM qualifying offer that he accepted to return. The club also signed free agents Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi, in addition to acquiring Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta. Those five and incumbent Jon Gray give the club six solid options for five spots. However, the bullpen hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention. Aside from that rotation surplus perhaps pushing Odorizzi into a long relief role, the club’s current relief options are holdovers and veterans on minor league deals.

The bullpen wasn’t an especially glaring weak point for the Rangers last year. Their collective 3.72 ERA was ranked 12th out of the 30 clubs in the majors. However, they lost Matt Moore and his 1.95 ERA last year when the lefty became a free agent at season’s end. They also don’t have an established closer, with various players having been given the job in recent years only to be felled by injuries and/or underperformance. The club’s saves leader in 2022 was Joe Barlow with 13, though the last one came in June as he spent much of the second half of the year on the injured list. As the club was holding Rangers Fan Fest this weekend, Levi Weaver of The Athletic discussed the situation with general manager Chris Young, who listed José Leclerc, Jonathan Hernández, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy and Brett Martin as some of the candidates to take over the closing duties, though Martin won’t be a short-term option since he recently underwent shoulder surgery that’s could wipe out his entire 2023 campaign.

Leclerc, 29, already had the closer’s role once upon a time. He racked up 12 saves in 2018 and 14 in 2019. However, his ERA jumped from 1.56 in that former season to 4.33 in the latter. He then missed most of the next two seasons due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery in March of 2021. He returned to the Rangers in June of last year and allowed five earned runs in his first three outings but posted a 2.01 ERA the rest of the way. He seemed to retake the closer’s job over the final months of the season, earning seven saves between August and September. He’s arguably the frontrunner and Young said Leclerc “could easily be the closer.”

Hernández, 26, is on a similar trajectory to Leclerc, in the sense that he underwent Tommy John in April of 2021. Prior to going under the knife, he had a nice breakout in 2020. He tossed 31 frames that year with a 2.90 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate. After missing 2021, he returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA in 30 1/3 innings. His control didn’t fully come back to him, as he walked 13% of batters faced, but he kept the ball on the ground at a 62.4% clip. His closing experience is quite limited, with his four career saves all coming in a two-week stretch from late July to mid-August of last year. Teams generally prefer their closers to be reliable strikeout guys, which might work against Hernández since he only punched out 20.6% of opponents last year. Perhaps he can get some punchouts back now that he’s further removed from the surgery, and Young expressed his belief that Hernández could take on the role.

Kennedy, 38, would provide a more experienced option, though that won’t necessarily make him more reliable. A long-time starter, he moved to the bullpen in recent years but has seen wild fluctuations in his performance. He racked up 30 saves for the Royals in 2019 with a 3.41 ERA, but then had an ERA of 9.00 in the shortened 2020 campaign while being limited by injury to just 15 appearances. He joined the Rangers in 2021 and got back on track, registering a 3.20 ERA and saving 26 games between them and the Phillies after a midseason trade. But with the Diamondbacks last year, his ERA shot up to 5.36 while his strikeout rate plummeted to 19% after being at 27.2% in the prior season.

Duffy, 34, is another veteran option, though in a much different way. He has just one save, which came back in 2015. Most of his career has been spent as a starter, with just 30 relief appearances scattered over his time in the big leagues. He’s also coming off a lengthy absence, having last appeared in the majors in July of 2021. A flexor strain put him on the shelf at that time and he wasn’t able to rehab in time to pitch at all in 2022. The error bars on his 2023 are quite wide, since he posted a 2.51 ERA when last healthy in 2021, but he might need time to get back on track after being down for so long.

One big wild card in the club’s bullpen is left-hander Brock Burke. Young was asked about the southpaw and said he could “potentially” take the closer job and that it’s something he’s discussed with pitching coach Mike Maddux. Burke somewhat quietly had a tremendous breakout campaign in 2022. He made his MLB debut with six starts in 2019 but then missed all of 2020 due to shoulder surgery. He returned to the mound in 2021 but was kept in the Triple-A rotation, where he registered a 5.68 ERA. Last year, however, he took on a multi-inning relief role in the big leagues and dominated, posting a 1.97 ERA in 82 1/3 innings over 52 appearances. He struck out 27.4% of batters faced while walking just 7.3%. It might be tantalizing to see what he could do in a typical single-inning relief role but it sounds like the club doesn’t want to push him in that direction, with Young suggesting Burke could eclipse 100 innings this season. “I’m not sure he gets that in a closer’s role. Or maybe it’s a different type of closer’s role; maybe it’s not as conventional. I don’t want to get too far ahead because we’re not committing to that. It could be a traditional type of closer, but certainly we view Brock as a valuable member of our bullpen and he can pitch a number of different roles that could help us win games.”

Burke himself admits that he held out hope of returning to the rotation until the club revamped it this offseason. “I feel like my role in the bullpen, with the starters we have this year, is going to be very helpful,” he said. “I’m good with whatever they’ve got. If it’s one inning, two innings, break-up innings. Last year, I definitely would have said more innings the better, at one (point) but after getting used to going out there for one inning, I was more comfortable, so I hope that this year, whatever role the team needs me for.”

It seems the Rangers are keeping an open mind for the time being and will let the chips fall where they may over the next few months. Health and effectiveness in spring and the early parts of the season will surely help the club’s decision-makers navigate the upcoming campaign.

Dodgers, Tony Gonsolin Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Deal

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The Dodgers and right-hander Tony Gonsolin have signed a two-year, $6.65MM contract to avoid arbitration, the team announced. The deal doesn’t affect the club’s window of team control, as he’s still controllable through the 2026 season.

Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reports the financial breakdown for the Beverly Hills Sports Council client (on Twitter). Gonsolin will make $3.25MM during the upcoming season, slightly north of the midpoint between his $3.4MM filing figure and the team’s $3MM offer. The deal contains a fairly modest $3.4MM base salary for 2024 but would allow the right-hander to tack on a decent amount if he stays healthy this year. Gonsolin’s 2024 salary would escalate by $500K apiece if he makes 14, 16, 18, 20, 24 and 28 starts this season — potentially adding $3MM to his ’24 salary. The contract also contains bonuses based on his finishes in Cy Young voting.

The Associated Press reports that Gonsolin’s 2024 salary was escalate by $1.125M if he wins the Cy Young next season, with $625K available for a top three finish and $500K if he places fourth of fifth. According to the AP, any relief appearance of at least 3 1/3 would be equivalent to a start for purposes of the escalators — presumably a means of protecting Gonsolin’s path to unlocking the escalators in the event he’s deployed behind an opener.

It’s a relatively inconsequential transaction in the bigger picture, but it locks in some cost certainty for the club and player over the next couple years. Gonsolin, who’d qualified for arbitration early this winter as a Super Two player, will still have two additional seasons of arbitration eligibility covering 2025-26. The deal wraps up the Dodgers’ arbitration work for this offseason, as they’d agreed to terms with their other nine arb-eligible players before the January 14 deadline for parties to exchange figures.

Gonsolin debuted in 2019 and worked as a depth starter for his first two-plus seasons. While the Saint Mary’s product was consistently effective, he didn’t crack a permanent spot in the Dodgers’ strong rotation until last year. During the 2022 campaign, Gonsolin cemented himself as one of the sport’s better pitchers. He posted a brilliant 2.14 ERA in 130 1/3 innings covering 24 starts. A .207 batting average on balls in play makes it unlikely he’ll maintain that ace-level run prevention, but the 28-year-old struck out an above-average 23.9% of opponents with a strong 7% walk rate. Even if his ERA takes a step back, he looks like a quality mid-rotation hurler.

The Dodgers’ payroll sits just under $222MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The team’s competitive balance tax figure is a few million dollars above the $233MM base threshold, with Gonsolin’s $3.325MM average annual value counting against the ledger. They’re at roughly $238MM in estimated CBT obligations.

Twins Notes: Lewis, Polanco, Kirilloff, Miranda

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The Twins were leading the American League Central division for much of 2022. However, injuries mounted throughout the season and the Guardians surpassed them for good in September, eventually finishing 14 games ahead of Minnesota. Better health and depth will be key for the Twins if they are to have better results this year, and the club even went so far as to hire a new head athletic trainer, getting Nick Paparesta to jump over from the A’s. “I think he’s going to have a huge impact,” manager Rocco Baldelli told Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently. “I’m not just confident of it — I know he’s going to have a huge impact in what goes on inside those doors.”

One of the players whose health will be in focus in 2023 is Royce Lewis. The first overall selection in the 2017 draft, he’s long been considered one of the best prospects in the league. However, he struggled a bit in 2019 and then saw the minors wiped out by the pandemic in 2020. That was followed by a lost season in 2021 as he was diagnosed with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in February, requiring season-ending surgery. He got things back on track nicely in 2022, hitting .313/.405/.534 in 34 Triple-A games and .300/.317/.550 in his first 12 major league games. Unfortunately, he tore the ACL in his right knee a second time in June, wiping out what remained of that season.

There were times this season that it seemed Carlos Correa would sign with the Giants and then Mets, leaving the future shortstop job open for Lewis to retake once healthy. However, Correa’s deals ended up getting scuttled by disagreements with those clubs about his physical and he wound up back with the Twins. His new deal comes with six guaranteed seasons and he could stick around for four more years via vesting options. While he might eventually move off shortstop at some point, it seems Lewis is blocked from that position for the foreseeable future. To help get into the lineup more last year, he played a little bit of outfield and third base in the minors, as well as some outfield in the majors. He tells Hayes that he would prefer to play on the infield but is open to time in the outfield again.

It likely won’t be an issue for a while, since his surgery was initially estimated to require a 12-month recovery period, meaning he likely won’t return until midway through the upcoming season. Though Lewis doesn’t have an update on his timeline, he did start hitting three weeks ago. Whenever he does return, he will be looking to crack an infield that should consist of Correa at short, Jorge Polanco at second, José Miranda at third and Alex Kirilloff at first.

There are some injury concerns elsewhere in that mix. Correa, of course, has a checkered injury past and the issues with the Giants and Mets raise questions about how his health will develop in the future. Polanco, meanwhile, was limited to 104 games last year by a pesky knee issue that eventually put him on the injured list for good in early September. He has declared himself to be healthy for the upcoming campaign, telling Hayes “I’m trying to really be out there playing, playing hard, letting the young guys know that I’m here to play hard. I want to set an example for them. I just want to be part of it.” Despite the nagging issue last year, he still hit 16 home runs and walked in 14.4% of his plate appearances for a batting line of .235/.346/.405 and a wRC+ of 119.

As for Kirilloff, the former first round draft pick has been dealing with persistent wrist issues, with each of his past two seasons ended by surgery. He’s back to swinging a bat now but is still sore. “They cut my bone so there’s definitely some aches and stuff to go along with that, but from a pain standpoint it feels good,” he says. “I think they’re expected to go away. I think anytime you break your bone it can take a lot longer than expected to heal. From my understanding, it gets to that certain point where it’s healed enough to do whatever you need to do and then it keeps healing for a while after that.”

He’s produced monster numbers in the minor leagues but the wrist issues have seemingly hampered him in the big leagues so far. Since starting 2019 in Double-A, Kirilloff has hit .305/.378/.484 in 574 minor league plate appearances for a wRC+ of 143. But in 387 major league appearances thus far, he’s slashed just .251/.295/.398 for a 91 wRC+. The club declined an option on Miguel Sanó and traded Luis Arraez to the Marlins, leaving the first base job wide open for Kirilloff if he’s healthy enough to take it.

Another player who could be in the mix at first is Miranda, though he seems to be ticketed for the third base job after Gio Urshela was traded to the Angels. Miranda made his debut last year and spent more time at first with Urshela across the diamond, but he can now go back to third, where he spent more time in the minors. His first season in the show went quite well, as he hit 15 home runs and batted .268/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 117. He apparently felt worn down late last year and has been on a new workout program and diet, trying to eat more chicken and vegetables in lieu of sweets. “He looks sexy,” Correa said about Miranda. “You see that body? He looks sexy. He looks really good. He looks in shape, he looks ready to work.”

Nick Gordon and Kyle Farmer will be on hand to give the club some infield depth, though Lewis will also be trying to get back on the field and into the mix. His odds of helping the team here are probably better than their crowded outfield mix of Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor, Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino and Matt Wallner, with Gordon and Kirilloff potentially in the mix there as well. It’s possible that a trade thins out the outfield depth chart a bit, but it remains packed for now, with just two weeks to go until Spring Training.

Which Aaron Hicks Will Show Up In 2023?

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After struggling at the plate in his first few major league seasons, Aaron Hicks seemed to break out in 2017. The switch-hitting outfielder went to the injured list a few times due to oblique issues and only got into 88 games, but he hit 15 home runs and stole 10 bases. He also drew walks in 14.1% of his plate appearances, well beyond that year’s 8.5% league average. His .266/.372/.475 batting line led to a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter. His defense was also graded well, allowing him to produce 2.7 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs, despite playing barely half a season.

Aaron Hicks | Andy Marlin-USA TODAY SportsThe next year, he stayed healthy enough to get into 137 games and largely repeated his results over a larger sample. He launched 27 homers, swiped 11 bags and walked in 15.5% of his trips to the plate. His .248/.366/.467 batting line led to a 129 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR. The Yankees felt they had a well-rounded player that was worth locking up, agreeing to give Hicks a seven-year, $70MM extension with a club option for 2026.

Things have been up-and-down for Hicks in the four seasons since that extension was signed, however. In 2019, he made multiple trips to the injured list and only got into 59 games. When healthy enough to play, his offensive output was diminished though still above average, as he finished the season with a 103 wRC+. He bounced right back in the shortened 2020 campaign, getting into 54 of the club’s 60 games. He only hit six home runs but he walked in 19.4% of his plate appearances, producing a slash line of .225/.379/.414 and a 124 wRC+. 2021 was another low point, however, as a wrist injury limited him to 32 games of poor production before surgery in May that he wasn’t able to return from.

2022 was the first time Hicks was healthy over a full season since that excellent 2018 campaign, though he wasn’t able to properly return to form, hitting just eight home runs in 130 games. He still walked at a healthy 13.7% clip and stole 10 bases, but his overall production was down. His .216/.330/.313 line amounted to a wRC+ of 90. He also lost the center field job, as the Yanks frequently ran Aaron Judge out there instead and acquired Harrison Bader at the trade deadline even though Bader was injured at the time and wouldn’t be able to take the spot until mid-September. Hicks’ work in left field was graded well which, along with his speed, still allowed him to tally 1.5 fWAR on the year. That’s not disastrous but it was a far cry from his previous form.

There are still three guaranteed years remaining on that extension, and the Yanks have reportedly been fielding trade offers on Hicks this offseason without finding a deal to their liking. With Bader and Judge set to be in center and right, the club was open to finding external additions in left but didn’t end up doing so. That leaves Hicks battling for the job next to younger players like Estevan Florial and Oswaldo Cabrera.

So, what can be expected out of Hicks in 2023? Was 2022 some kind of outlier or just a reasonable expectation of the kind of player Hicks is now? If one wanted to be optimistic and charitable, they could point to the fact that Hicks was coming off three stunted seasons, wrist surgery and then a lockout-interrupted offseason where he was not able to communicate with team staff. His power was diminished but he still got on base and was able to contribute in other ways. Hicks told Dan Martin of The New York Post in September that he tried to come back from wrist surgery lean and athletic to stay healthy but that it backfired by sapping his power. “I wanted to get faster and healthy, but me playing at 200 pounds isn’t it,’’ Hicks said. “I haven’t been impacting the ball like I wanted to. It’s really showed, with my power down. I wanted to be quicker and it didn’t work out that way.” He told Martin that he was looking forward to adding more strength in the offseason and coming into 2023 with the power restored.

The more pessimistic view is that Hicks hasn’t been both good and healthy over an extended period of time since 2018. It’s not his fault there was a pandemic-shortened campaign in there and that he happened to be injured on either side of it, but the fact of the matter is that he’s now 33 and natural age-based regression is working against him. Statcast has some mixed opinions on his 2022 results. His hard hit rate was only in the 14th percentile and his barrel rate just 29th. His average exit velocity was in the 31st percentile, though he did get to the 57th for maximum exit velo, suggesting there’s still some power in there but he wasn’t tapping into it often enough. It’s possible that his plan to bulk up in the offseason and get his strength back could lead to him hitting the ball with more authority in 2023, but there’s no real guarantee that will work.

Regardless of whether that plan comes to fruition, Hicks should still be valuable in some way. As mentioned, even with his down year in 2022, he produced 1.5 fWAR thanks to his speed, defense and ability to draw walks. It’s possible that speed plays up a bit with the new rule changes that will encourage base stealing going forward. He could also get a boost from the ban on extreme defensive alignments as he was shifted in 92.6% of his plate appearances as a lefty and just 6.5% as a righty. He has mild platoon splits for his career, producing a 103 wRC+ as a righty and a 96 as a lefty, with the new rules perhaps leading to more balanced results there.

The major unknown will be that power and if it can come back. Hicks hit 27 home runs in 2018 and had similar results on a rate basis in his injury-marred 2017 and 2019 seasons. But he’s been well shy of that pace for three years running now. If it doesn’t come back, he’s a solid but unexciting regular or perhaps an overqualified fourth outfielder. If it does come back, he’d return to being the well-rounded player the Yanks were so excited about a few years ago. Since no trade has been made, it seems Hicks will get a chance to prove himself this year. Whether he succeeds or not could be significant in a hotly-contested AL East where every win could matter, in this year and the two years still remaining on his contract.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

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