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2023-24 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals entered the year expected to compete for another NL Central title. Instead, they’re on track for their first 90-loss season in more than three decades. They’re going to make another push for contention this winter, with no secret about a forthcoming pursuit of rotation help.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • None

2024 financial commitments: $108MM
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $264.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Hudson, Barnes, Knizner, Woodford

Free Agents

It didn’t take long to become clear the Cardinals weren’t going to meet preseason expectations. St. Louis started slowly, rebounded somewhat in May, then fell firmly out of the playoff picture with an 8-15 showing in June. They were positioned as deadline sellers by the All-Star Break.

That’s largely on account of a well below-average run prevention group. The club’s typically excellent defense regressed. Willson Contreras was briefly moved to designated hitter then returned to catcher in a bizarre saga early into the first season of his five-year free agent deal. Most concerning, the starting rotation simply wasn’t good enough to keep the Cardinals in games.

Adam Wainwright had the worst season of his career at age 41. The Cardinals understandably let him continue taking the ball in deference to his place in franchise history. He fortunately managed to hit the 200 win mark with a gem over the Brewers last week to close out his career. Wainwright’s contributions to the last two decades of Cardinal baseball are hard to overstate. He clearly didn’t have much left in the tank this season, though, meaning the Cards shouldn’t have much difficulty finding better production out of one their rotation spots.

They’ll need far more than to replace the outgoing Wainwright. St. Louis dealt impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty at the deadline. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said shortly thereafter that the club was hoping to fill all three vacated spots from outside the organization. They’d give looks to various younger hurlers to see if any would elevate their standing during the final six weeks. The expectation is nevertheless they’d need to add a trio of starters.

There’s an argument the Cardinals could use four new starting pitchers. Miles Mikolas is the one lock for a job. He’s miscast as a staff ace but has proven a very durable source of innings, starting 32+ games in four of the last five full seasons. He’s tallied 194 1/3 frames of 4.82 ERA ball this year. He’s had a rough second half, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back.

The rest of the group is uncertain. Steven Matz has underwhelmed in two seasons since signing a four-year free agent deal. The Cardinals kicked Matz to the bullpen for a spell midseason. He eventually returned to the rotation, turned in his best seven-start run as a Cardinal, then suffered a season-ending lat strain in mid-August. It would’ve been a lot easier to pencil him into next year’s rotation if he’d stayed healthy over the final six weeks.

St. Louis has otherwise cycled through pitchers who haven’t had much success at the MLB level. Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom (acquired from the Orioles in the Flaherty trade) were all well-regarded prospects, to varying extents. Only Thompson has carried that over at the MLB level and that has mostly come in relief.

The Cards have given Thompson nine starts during the final couple months, during which he’s posted a 4.37 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout and walk rates. The former first-round pick has put the best case forward for a season-opening job out of that trio, yet he’ll be 26 in October and has all of 10 career major league starts. He’s probably not a lock either. Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson have logged some innings without much success. Either could be non-tendered, with Hudson having a particularly tenuous hold on a roster spot heading into his third season of arbitration eligibility.

It’s clearly an insufficient group for a team hoping to return to contention. The Cards have never been huge free agent spenders, preferring to attack the trade market and re-sign the stars they acquire. They’ve yet to go past an $80MM guarantee for a free agent starter (Mike Leake), though they’ve notably been in the free agent bidding for some higher-profile names in the past (most notably, David Price. There’s a chance they set a new franchise record for free agent pitching investment this winter.

The Cardinals have roughly $108MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. The arbitration class will probably tack on a bit over $20MM. That’s still well shy of the $177MM range in which they opened the ’23 campaign. There’s room for a strike towards the upper end of the free agent market.

This winter’s class skews toward pitching. Beyond Shohei Ohtani (who won’t pitch next season), the rotation group is headlined by Blake Snell and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That duo might wind up beyond the Cards’ spending range, but the next group of arms includes Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez (assuming he opts out of his deal with the Tigers). Montgomery and Nola are very likely to surpass nine figures, while Gray has a chance to do so. Any of that group would immediately be the best pitcher on the St. Louis staff. Rodriguez could beat the Leake guarantee as well.

Mozeliak and his front office will probably add a couple arms in free agency. Handing out the two biggest free agent guarantees for starters in franchise history in the same offseason might not be tenable. Looking further down the class, players like Seth Lugo, old friend Michael Wacha — if his options with the Padres are declined — and Kenta Maeda could offer stability. The Cards may prefer that to a rebound flier on Frankie Montas or Luis Severino, though they’d certainly have the opportunity to dangle a job to a riskier upside play if that’s a route they’d prefer.

Not all of the work has to be accomplished in free agency. The Cards were a team to watch at last summer’s deadline, with rumors of potential deals involving their young hitters to land a controllable starting pitcher. That didn’t materialize. The Cardinals were active, but their trades generally followed the same pattern: moving an impending free agent (Flaherty, Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong) for upper minors talent, preferably pitching.

Speculation about dealing a big league position player could return. Former top prospect Dylan Carlson is the obvious candidate. He’d looked like the franchise center fielder after securing the position midway through the 2022 season. The switch-hitting Carlson hasn’t had the breakout offensive showing that many expected, however, settling in as a roughly league average bat over the past few years. Lars Nootbaar broke out late in ’22 to take hold of center field.

Rather than return Carlson to an everyday role in the corner outfield, they pushed him into more of a fourth outfield capacity. Top prospect Jordan Walker arrived at the major league level to man right field. Walker is already an above-average MLB hitter, though he’s one of the game’s worst defensive outfielders. Tyler O’Neill is a far better defender in left field. He has been up-and-down offensively while battling various injuries, but the Cards have maintained faith that he could recapture his 30-homer potential. They showed little interest in trading him and reportedly plan to give him the left field job to start his final year of club control.

That leaves St. Louis with a few decisions to make. They probably don’t want to consign the 21-year-old Walker to a full-time DH role. There’s no room for Walker on the corner infield, at least for one more season. Depending on how they handle second base, the Cards could need to keep the DH spot available for an infielder. They could retain Carlson as a fourth outfielder, likely passing on a chance to flip him for pitching talent in the process. Richie Palacios, acquired in a minor June trade with the Guardians, has played well enough in September to have a shot at sticking as a fourth outfielder.

Carlson is no longer going to return an impact controllable starter, but there’d still be interest — particularly in a thin market for center fielders. The Yankees expressed interest in Carlson at the deadline and could put Clarke Schmidt on the table, as a speculative possibility. Perhaps the Marlins are prepared to listen on 2021 All-Star Trevor Rogers after an injury-wrecked ’23 season. If the Cardinals hold Carlson, they could flip Alec Burleson on the heels of a down year. That’d mean selling low on a former top prospect with five years of remaining club control, though.

The middle infield is the other area where they could leverage their young talent in trade. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman are very different players — Donovan is an excellent contact hitter, Gorman has potential 30+ homer power — but they’re each above-average MLB bats. Neither is a great defender at second base, but Gorman has improved at the position and Donovan can bounce around the diamond. Donovan missed most of the second half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery; he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Each of Gorman and Donovan would have more trade value than Carlson. The Cardinals could keep both, rotating them between second base and designated hitter. Yet it’s possible they flip one for a controllable starting pitcher. Speculation about the Cardinals and Mariners lining up on a trade has abounded for months. Seattle certainly isn’t moving George Kirby, and they’d probably balk at dealing Logan Gilbert. They could offer Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, though it’s debatable if that’s enough from the Cardinals’ perspective. The Marlins (Braxton Garrett) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Sawyer Gipson-Long) could each float interesting young pitchers as part of a larger trade package.

Tommy Edman would generate a fair bit of interest himself. He’s a decent hitter who can seemingly play plus defense at every non-catching position. The Cardinals seem disinclined to move him given his defensive value, though they’ll surely receive some calls. It’s a dreadful free agent class for middle infield help, leaving teams like Detroit, Miami and the Giants without clear solutions at shortstop. Edman would be an upgrade for any of that trio.

That’d be an easier sell for St. Louis if top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn had hit the ground running. The 21-year-old has mustered only a .168/.233/.243 line in his first 33 big league contests. It doesn’t change his long-term outlook, since most players his age are at Double-A or below. Yet it suggests Winn is probably ticketed for Triple-A to start next season, which would leave Edman as the presumptive starting shortstop.

Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt will be back at the corner infield. Goldschmidt is going into the final season of the five-year extension he signed upon landing in St. Louis. If the Cardinals struggle early in the year, he’d be a major deadline trade chip. It’d be very surprising if they seriously entertain moving him during the offseason, however. Perhaps another team wants to take a flier on 26-year-old Luken Baker, who is blocked by Goldschmidt but raked at a .334/.439/.720 clip in Triple-A this season.

23-year-old catcher Iván Herrera also had a great Triple-A showing, hitting .297/.451/.500 with 10 longballs in 375 trips to the plate. It’s his second consecutive above-average performance at the top minor league level. He’ll be out of options next year and surely won’t be placed on waivers. Either the Cardinals keep Herrera in the majors or they trade him, but the signing of Contreras muddies Herrera’s path to a regular role.

The Cards could flip or non-tender Andrew Knizner if they wanted to carry Herrera as Contreras’ backup. Herrera would have quite a bit more appeal than Knizner on the trade market, with teams like Miami (again), Tampa Bay and Boston among possible matches.

Deadline trade speculation extended to the bullpen. There was little incentive to hold impending free agents Hicks and Stratton. Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley were loosely floated in rumors. Helsley was on the injured list at the time, while Gallegos had just signed an extension last October. It’s not surprising no deal came together. While opposing clubs could call again on either, the Cardinals would probably prefer to retain two of their better late-game arms. Alongside southpaw JoJo Romero, that duo should assume high-leverage roles.

With Stratton and Hicks gone and long reliever Drew VerHagen hitting free agency, it’s likely St. Louis will add one or two relievers to the mix. That could include their first notable free agent bullpen pickup since they signed Andrew Miller in advance of the 2019 season, even if the rotation is the higher priority.

It looks like a winter with a fair bit of roster turnover. That doesn’t appear to extend to the top non-playing personnel. Oliver Marmol will be back for a third season as manager. Mozeliak — the sport’s second-longest tenured front office head — doesn’t seem to be in any jeopardy after a decade and a half of mostly successful ball. Mozeliak implied last offseason that he could hand the reigns to longtime lieutenant Michael Girsch once his contract expires after the 2025 season.

That’s a longer-term consideration. For now, the focus for Mozeliak, Girsch and Marmol is on quickly righting the ship after a disastrous season. The Cardinals aren’t accustomed to looking up at the rest of the division. They’ll try to ensure this offseason that it doesn’t happen again.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 9-29-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook Chat Transcript: Pittsburgh Pirates

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MLBTR is holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams as the offseason nears. In conjunction with this morning’s Pirates Offseason Outlook, Steve Adams hosted a Pirates-centric chat this morning. Click here to read the transcript!

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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In conjunction with this installment in our Offseason Outlook series, Steve Adams will be hosting a Pirates-centric chat today at 1pm CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live!

The Pirates’ blistering start to the season gave way to another year of losing baseball and deadline selling. With many members of their vaunted farm system now on the cusp of their first full season in the Majors, they should be set for a more active offseason than in recent years.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryan Reynolds, OF: $100MM through 2030 (includes buyout of 2031 club option)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B: $50MM through 2029 (includes buyout of 2030 club option)

2024 commitments: $17MM
Total future commitments: $150MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

The beginning of the offseason is often a time for changes in the front office or in the dugout, particularly among losing clubs, but there’s no real risk of that among the Pittsburgh brass. Manager Derek Shelton was extended earlier this season, with his new deal beginning next year. There’s been no indication that general manager Ben Cherington is in any kind of jeopardy after a third losing season. Cherington was hired to embark on a full-scale rebuilding effort, and ownership knew from the start that it’d be a lengthy process.

The first and most straightforward decision of the winter will come on lefty Jarlin Garcia’s $3.25MM club option, which will surely be declined after he missed the year due to injury. There’s no buyout on the option, so the Bucs will let him go after a season spent on the injured list.

A larger and more pressing issue for Bucs fans pertains to franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. The former National League MVP returned to the organization that drafted him last offseason, signing a one-year deal worth $5MM. McCutchen has been vocal about the fact that the Pirates and Pittsburgh feel like home to him, and with his 37th birthday just two weeks away as of this writing, he’s made clear that he has little appetite to continue his career elsewhere.

Cherington has been candid about his desire to bring McCutchen back in 2024, stating earlier this month that the two parties would discuss a new contract this offseason. McCutchen’s 2023 campaign ended early due to a partial Achilles tear, but he picked up his 2000th career hit and 400th career double this year in black and gold. The overwhelming likelihood is that he’ll return to the Pirates on another short-term deal in 2024, this time taking aim at his 300th career home run — he’s currently at 299 — and again serving as a veteran mentor for a young Bucs club. Of course, Cutch brings more than just leadership to the table; he batted .256/.378/.397 with a dozen homers and 11 steals in 112 games this year.

Assuming McCutchen is back, he’ll be the primary designated hitter. The Pirates gave him just 64 innings in right field this year, and that was before the aforementioned Achilles injury. He’ll be locked into a largely regular lineup role, joining third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and outfielders Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski in that regard. Hayes had a rough first half but continued to provide elite defense through his struggles at the plate. And, in the second half of the season, he’s erupted with a .307/.345/.556 slash line. Suwinski strikes out too much to hit for a high average but draws tons of walks (14.6%) and has thus far swatted 26 homers and swiped 13 bags. Reynolds’ bat is down a bit from peak levels, but he turned in his third straight season of 20-plus homers and was still a well above-average offensive performer.

At least one other spot on the diamond seems all but solidified. It’s been a lost year for Oneil Cruz, who suffered a fractured ankle in a home plate collision with White Sox catcher Seby Zavala in early April. The 6’7″ Cruz has long been lauded as one of the top prospects in the game due to his near-unparalleled raw power and plus speed. Losing his entire age-24 season to injury is a blow to his development, but he’s still controllable for five years. In his first 410 MLB plate appearances, he’s batted .237/.302/.449 with a jarring 33.7% strikeout rate, but Cruz has some of the loudest tools in the game and possesses star potential. He’ll treat the 2023 season as a mulligan as he looks to realize his upside.

As far as position players go, the Pirates don’t necessarily have anyone else firmly entrenched just yet. Top catching prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis both made their MLB debuts this year, but both struggled at the plate. Davis saw the vast majority of his time in right field, and a move out from behind the plate has long been viewed as a possibility for the 2021 No. 1 overall pick. The Bucs only gave him two big league innings at catcher, though they’ve not yet said he won’t play the position at all in the future. Still, it seems that Rodriguez could well be the preferred option there, with Davis sliding into an outfield/first base/DH/part-time catcher role if the bat picks up.

Both Rodriguez and Davis will play big roles with the Bucs next year, but it might still be prudent to bring in some veteran competition, even if only on a minor league deal. Jason Delay is a fine backup catcher, but if one or both of Rodriguez and Davis wind up needing time in the minors, having another backstop (e.g. Curt Casali, Sandy Leon, Luke Maile) on hand would hold value.

In the outfield, Connor Joe and Alfonso Rivas are options if Davis needs some Triple-A time. But Joe is likely to be arb-eligible and saw his bat wilt after a torrid start to the season (.217/.309/.351 in his past 356 plate appearances). Rivas, 27, has huge Triple-A numbers but has yet to carry them to the Majors in parts of three seasons. Miguel Andujar is a non-tender candidate, and Joe could be as well. There are plenty of affordable corner outfielders on the market if the Bucs want to go outside the organization to provide some competition for Davis. Randal Grichuk, Hunter Renfroe and David Peralta will all be free agents, as will Travis Jankowski and Michael A. Taylor, if the preference is for someone more defensive-minded.

As far as areas that are in clear need of work, the right side of the infield stands out. Last offseason’s first base acquisitions, Carlos Santana and Ji Man Choi, were both traded at the deadline. The previously mentioned Joe wound up playing a significant amount at first base but has seen his season-long batting line dip below the league average despite his hot start to the year. Rivas presents another option here.

Rookie Jared Triolo is a third baseman who’s gotten a few brief looks at first base. He could be an option, but his .292/.382/.385 slash seems bound to regress when his .419 BABIP comes back down to Earth. And given his 29% strikeout rate, it’s fair to harbor some concerns. Prospect Malcom Nunez had a tough showing in his Triple-A debut this year, though he’s still just 22. Garrett Cooper and C.J. Cron are among the short-term options available in free agency,

At second base, none of Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero or Nick Gonzales have forcefully staked their claim to the position. All three are former prospects of note who have minor league options remaining, but second base is another area where the Bucs could at least bring in some veteran competition to steady the position in 2024 and serve as a bridge to top prospect Termarr Johnson. The free agent market at second base is thin behind Whit Merrifield, but the trade and non-tender markets could open up additional avenues.

Turning to the pitching staff, there’s some degree of a foundation in place. Mitch Keller will be back to lead the staff. There could be trade rumors surrounding the righty, as has been the case for much of the past two years, but Keller has stepped up as a solid mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, often showing flashes of an even higher ceiling. With two years of club control remaining, he could well be an extension candidate. (More on that in a bit.) Keller and fellow righty Johan Oviedo — acquired from the Cardinals alongside Nunez in exchange for Jose Quintana — have cemented themselves on the staff. It’s been a rollercoaster season for Oviedo, but the end result will be 175ish innings with an ERA in the low 4.00s. He’s currently at 172 2/3 frames with a 4.12 mark and one start remaining.

There are both depth options and rising prospects who can factor into the starting pitching mix. Righty JT Brubaker will return from Tommy John surgery at some point early next summer. Deadline pickup Bailey Falter has had a tough year but logged a 3.86 ERA in 84 innings with the 2022 Phillies. He’ll be out of options next year, so he’ll have to make the club as either a fifth starter or long reliever — or else be traded or designated for assignment. Right-hander Roansy Contreras entered the year looking like a rotation building block but has struggled in Pittsburgh and in Triple-A. He’ll get additional opportunities in the future, though it’s always possible they come in the bullpen.

Prospects like Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz have already gotten their feet wet, and there’s more help on the horizon. Anthony Solometo, Jared Jones and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes could all debut next year. Skenes’ eventual arrival will be one of the most eagerly anticipated pitching debuts since Stephen Strasburg first took the mound for the Nationals in 2010.

In-house options notwithstanding, the Bucs figure to add at least one arm this year. They’ve added a low-ceiling veteran stabilizer in each of the past three offseasons, bringing Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill aboard on one-year deals — and trading all three at that season’s respective deadline. There’s merit to making a similar play for some bulk innings this winter, with Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley and Martin Perez among the options who’d fit that bill.

Even if the Pirates do make such an addition, however, it’s quite arguable that the time has come for them to do something a bit more on the pitching front. A long-term play for a young ace like Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t going to be in the cards for a club with such a modest annual payroll, and no one is going to predict the Pirates to sign Blake Snell on the heels of a Cy Young-caliber season. But the market offers plenty of upside plays, be it a multi-year pact for a still-young pitcher like Jack Flaherty or a shorter-term pickup of a pitcher looking to rebound from injury. Frankie Montas and Luis Severino both fit that description and would both bring substantially higher upside to the Pirates than their prior offseason pickups.

The bullpen, outside of David Bednar, is lacking in household names but not in quality. Bednar is a star and one of the game’s best bullpen arms, but Pittsburgh also got strong results out of less-heralded names like Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Carmen Mlodzinski and even waiver/DFA pickups like Ryan Borucki and Thomas Hatch.

Some of the rotation candidates who don’t stick as starters will inevitably end up here, but there will also be injuries and regression among 2023’s quietly solid group. There’s certainly room to bring in a veteran arm here, though any veteran seeking closing opportunities will likely look elsewhere, as Bednar won’t be displaced — nor (to the chagrin of other fan bases) will he likely be traded with the Pirates hoping to emerge from their rebuild sooner than later. Phil Maton, Keynan Middleton, Ryne Stanek, Michael Fulmer and Brent Suter are among the many, many relief options available this winter.

Of course, repeated suggestions of the Pirates spending money will be met with anything ranging from skepticism to jokes and mockery. But the Pirates have just two players under contract beyond the current season, Reynolds and Hayes, and they’ll pay that pair a combined $17MM in 2024. There are a handful of players due raises in arbitration, but the prices figure to be modest. Keller will be due a raise on this year’s $2.375MM salary and figures to be the most expensive of the bunch. Brubaker will likely repeat last year’s $2.275MM salary after missing the year due to Tommy John surgery. Bednar is in his first trip through arbitration, and Borucki won’t cost much as a minor league signee.

Even after those arb raises, the Pirates could have under $30MM on the books. That doesn’t include league-minimum players to round out the roster, but it’s nevertheless a gap of more than $40MM from where their 2023 payroll began. And with increased expectations, it’s eminently plausible that ownership will give Cherington & Co. a bit more latitude in terms of spending (albeit not too much more).

Just as there’s room to look into free agency more extensively than in seasons past, there’s also payroll space to consider locking up key long-term pieces. Keller hasn’t reached ace status but holds a strong 3.82 ERA in 54 starts and 318 innings since incorporating a sinker into his repertoire in May 2022. That includes a poor finish to his 2023 season, which will surely be a factor the Pirates consider, but Keller’s workload is at career-high levels and the overall body of work the past two seasons remains strong. He’s logged better-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates in that time (23.5%, 7.5%, 46.1%) and is just 27 years old.

There are plenty of parallels between Keller and Twins righty Pablo Lopez, who inked a four-year, $73.5MM deal with Minnesota earlier this year when he was in the same service class that Keller will be in this coming offseason. Perhaps Keller’s slightly lesser track record and shaky finish will prevent him from quite reaching that annual value, but it’s certainly a relevant comparison.

Bednar, too, stands as a possible extension candidate — though multi-year deals for relievers are rare, particularly once they’ve reached their arbitration years. He has a healthier track record and more saves than Rays righty Pete Fairbanks, who back in March signed a three-year, $12MM deal that bought out his arbitration seasons and gave Tampa Bay control over one free agent year. Bednar is poised to do quite well in arbitration and might command close to double that commitment to put pen to paper, but it’s a concept worth exploring for an excellent reliever who’s popular with his hometown fans.

The Bucs could also look into a long-term deal with Cruz, though that’ll be a tall task as Cruz might want to put this year’s freak injury behind him and prove himself on the field before talking years and dollars.

It’s been a long time since Pirates fans got to follow a playoff-caliber club in Pittsburgh, but the latest rebuilding effort under a still relatively new front office regime is likely moving toward a conclusion. A lot rides on the continued development of high-end prospects like Davis, Rodriguez, Skenes, Jones, Solometo and Priester, but everyone from that group could contribute as soon as next season. Hayes, Reynolds, Suwinski, Cruz, Keller and Bednar give some immediate optimism, and they’ll be joined by that group of promising prospect as well as some veteran additions in an increasingly competitive NL Central next year.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers showed signs of progress in the first season under their new front office regime. There’s still another corner to turn to make this a legitimate contender. They could try to close the gap this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Javier Báez, SS: $98MM through 2027 (can opt out after this season)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP: $49MM through 2026 (can opt out after this season)

Option Decisions

  • Miguel Cabrera, DH: $30MM club option ($8MM buyout)
  • Carson Kelly, C: $3.5MM club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if team declines

2024 commitments (assuming Rodriguez opts out): $33MM
Total future commitments (assuming Rodriguez opts out): $106MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Kelly, Meadows, Turnbull

Free Agents

Towards the end of last season, the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila and hired Giants general manager Scott Harris away to serve as the new president of baseball operations in Detroit. Harris played things cautiously, taking the 2023 campaign as an evaluative year. Now heading into his second winter at the helm, he’ll face more urgency.

Harris recently made a notable off-field move, tabbing new GM Jeff Greenberg as #2 in the front office hierarchy. Greenberg had spent over a decade in the Cubs’ front office, where he overlapped with Harris, before a year in the NHL with the Blackhawks. He’s back in baseball to work under his old colleague and alongside fourth-year manager A.J. Hinch.

The Tigers weren’t facing any significant free agent departures last winter. That’s not the case this time around, as starter Eduardo Rodriguez could head back to the open market. The veteran southpaw has rebounded from a 2022 plagued by middling production and an extended stay away from the club for personal reasons. Rodriguez has turned in a 3.40 ERA across 25 starts, striking out a solid 23.2% of opposing hitters. While his production has tailed off since a late-May pulley rupture in the index finger of his throwing hand, there’s still a good chance he hits the market.

Rodriguez has three years and $49MM remaining on his five-year free agent contract. His camp can make a strong case that he’s a superior pitcher to Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, each of whom secured four-year pacts ranging from $68MM to $72MM last winter. Rodriguez is clearly comfortable in Detroit and invoked his partial n0-trade clause to kill a deadline agreement that would’ve sent him to the Dodgers. He has been noncommittal when asked whether that decision would have any relation to his opt-out call.

From a strict financial perspective, it’d seem likely Rodriguez opts out. The Tigers would surely be happy to have him back in the fold if he plays out his current contract, though they’ll have to plan for the chance he heads elsewhere. There’s no suspense in two of the club’s other option decisions. Javier Báez is going to opt in for the final four years and $98MM on his contract. The team will pay an $8MM buyout to the retiring Miguel Cabrera.

Their final option call is on Carson Kelly. Detroit signed the veteran catcher after he was released by the Diamondbacks midseason. That deal gave the Tigers a $3.5MM option for what would be Kelly’s final year of arbitration. That’s less than Kelly would’ve made had he been tendered an arbitration contract.

Kelly hasn’t performed any better in Detroit than he did in Arizona. He’s hitting .182/.265/.295 in 16 games after running a .226/.283/.298 slash in the desert. Kelly’s production has cratered since he suffered a wrist injury midway through the 2021 season. Even at a $3.5MM price point, the Tigers could look elsewhere. Kelly would technically remain arb-eligible if the Tigers decline his option, though he’d surely be non-tendered at that point. It’d be illogical for the organization to tender him a contract at a higher value than the option price.

Even if they retain Kelly, he won’t be the starter. That falls to Jake Rogers, who has connected on 20 home runs in 353 trips to the plate. The 28-year-old pairs that power with highly-regarded defense. He’s a plus blocker, an above-average pitch framer and receives excellent reviews for his work with a pitching staff. If not Kelly, the Tigers would probably look to bring in another catcher but aren’t likely to seek out a new starter behind the dish.

On the other hand, they could look for upgrades at most spots on the infield. First base is the exception. Former #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson has begun to look like an impact slugger after struggling through his first season and a half in the majors. He’s the only player locked into a spot on the dirt.

Detroit has given looks to multi-positional options Andy Ibáñez and Zach McKinstry. Ibáñez is hitting well in the second half; McKinstry had a solid start to the year but has tailed off significantly. They’re each viable MLB utility players. Neither has demonstrated they’re capable of holding down an everyday role for a full season. Ibáñez turns 31 next April, while McKinstry will be 29. It’s hard to count on either as regulars.

Things haven’t gone much better for the rest of Detroit’s infield. Nick Maton struggled on both sides of the ball after being acquired from Philadelphia in the Gregory Soto trade. Neither Zack Short nor Tyler Nevin has hit well. Late-season call Andre Lipcius is 25 and has never been viewed as a top prospect. Ryan Kreidler has spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A.

At least at third base, the Tigers can hope for better production in the near future. Colt Keith has mashed at a .306/.380/.552 clip between the top two minor levels at age 21. He’s now one of the sport’s top prospects and will surely get a look at some point in 2024, though the Tigers haven’t tipped their hand if he’s in consideration for the Opening Day third base job. Harris resisted calls throughout the season to promote Keith or Justyn-Henry Malloy, instead opting for a slow trajectory for the organization’s top prospects.

Malloy is ostensibly an option at the hot corner himself, though scouting reports suggest he might be better suited for left field. Acquired in the Joe Jiménez trade last offseason, the 23-year-old Malloy owns a .277/.417/.474 line over a full season at Triple-A Toledo. As with Keith, he should be up early in the season, though the defensive home is still up in the air.

Detroit isn’t going to make a run at Matt Chapman or Jeimer Candelario, who has emerged as one of the better hitters in the upcoming free agent class after the Tigers non-tendered him a year ago. Players like McKinstry and Ibáñez could cover third base in the short term if Detroit wanted to give Keith a little more time in Triple-A. Yet they’d be well-served to add a regular up the middle.

The organization obviously hoped Báez would anchor the group when they signed him to a $140MM free agent deal two years ago. Instead, he has hit .230/.273/.360 in a little more than 1100 trips to the plate. Báez is still the starting shortstop for now, but Hinch began to curtail his playing time toward the end of the season. The contract alone isn’t a compelling justification for giving him everyday run.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, it’s an awful offseason to be on the hunt for middle infield help. Amed Rosario might be the best player in the free agent shortstop class. It’s barely better at second base, where Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier lead the group. There’s not much clearer supply on the trade market, where teams like the Giants and Marlins could also be in the mix.

Perhaps the Brewers would move Willy Adames, but he’s not a great fit for a fringe contender like Detroit with only one season of arbitration control remaining. The Cardinals seem reluctant to part with Tommy Edman. Baltimore could move Jorge Mateo, but he’s coming off a dreadful offensive season in his own right. There are a few more options at the keystone, where Brandon Drury or Cavan Biggio could be available — potentially bridging the gap to former #12 overall pick Jace Jung, who performed well at Double-A in his first full pro season.

Given the dearth of middle infield solutions, the Tigers could try to float Báez as a change-of-scenery candidate themselves. Yet he’d be an equally questionable solution for a team like San Francisco or Miami as he is in Detroit. They’d likely have to pay down over three-quarters of the remaining money just to facilitate a deal for a meager return. At that point, it’s probably better to hold onto him and hope for some sort of rebound.

Harris and his staff can feel a lot more comfortable with the outfield. They moved Riley Greene from center to right field late in the season. Assuming he progresses as expected after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, he’ll be back at one of those spots. Parker Meadows, who took over for Greene in center, hasn’t hit much in his first look at MLB pitching. He’s a good enough defender that Detroit could stick with him in hopes the offense improves. Matt Vierling and Akil Baddoo could see some time in the corners — Vierling might also pick up reps at second or third base — with Malloy potentially playing his way into the left field mix.

Kerry Carpenter has rated as a roughly average corner outfield defender. Regarded by many prospect evaluators as a DH-only type, he has impressed with a .288/.346/.492 clip and 20 homers in his first full season at the big league level. With Cabrera retiring, the Tigers could give Carpenter a few more DH at-bats, though his ability to play an adequate left field gives Hinch options.

With that group of young outfielders, it’s hard to envision the Tigers retaining Austin Meadows. Anxiety issues have kept Meadows on the injured list for the bulk of the past two seasons. His mental health is obviously the foremost concern, but there’s probably no longer a place for him on the MLB roster. Detroit could also entertain trade possibilities on Baddoo or Vierling, perhaps as a means of adding a depth starter or middle reliever.

Rodriguez’s potential departure leaves a question mark in the rotation, though there’s still a promising group of fairly young arms. Tarik Skubal is the headliner. He has returned from flexor surgery and picked up where he’d begun last season, working to a 2.95 ERA with a near-32% strikeout rate through 14 starts.

Former #1 overall pick Casey Mize should be back after last year’s Tommy John procedure. Matt Manning somehow was hit by a comebacker that broke his foot on two separate occasions this year. Around that brutal luck, he looked like a decent rotation piece (albeit with an ERA that outstripped his peripherals). Reese Olson has flashed mid-rotation potential in 98 innings as a rookie.

They’ll likely need at least one veteran arm to solidify the staff. Along with Rodriguez, the Tigers traded away Michael Lorenzen at the deadline and lost Matthew Boyd (an impending free agent) to Tommy John surgery. Neither Alex Faedo nor Joey Wentz has done enough to secure a rotation spot.

Detroit has ample short-term financial room. If Rodriguez opts out, they’d have just $33MM in guaranteed commitments entering the winter. The arbitration class is relatively modest. Detroit has opened recent seasons with a player payroll in the $120-130MM range and has spent upwards of $200MM in the past (although that was under the late Mike Ilitch, while his son Christopher Ilitich is now the primary owner).

There’s ostensibly a chance for the organization to make a run at the top of the pitching market. Harris was hired from a Giants front office that generally eschewed long-term investments in starting pitching, preferring reclamation and/or mid-tier acquisitions. Whether he’ll carry that philosophy to Detroit remains to be seen.

If the Tigers wanted to aim high, they’d have a number of possibilities. A deal in the $200MM range for Blake Snell might be rich, but the likes of Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are consistent sources of above-average bulk innings. NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto just turned 25 in August, so his expected prime aligns well with a Detroit team emerging from a rebuild. If they prefer to emulate the Giants’ model, the likes of Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty and Michael Wacha (if his club option is declined by San Diego) could be targets.

Detroit could also subtract a notable name from the rotation picture. Spencer Turnbull once looked like an innings-eating mid-rotation starter who’d be a key contributor. According to various reports, the relationship between player and team looks to have soured over the past six months. Turnbull reported a neck injury after the Tigers attempted to option him to the minors in May, leading Detroit to put him on the major league IL.

The Tigers sent him to the minors once he was healthy, meaning he’ll finish the year just shy of five years of service. Turnbull reported a toenail avulsion that kept him off the mound for a few weeks immediately thereafter, though he has pitched since having the injured nail removed two weeks ago.

Whether the team/player relationship has soured or not, Turnbull looks to have been squeezed out of the rotation. He’s a potential non-tender candidate as a result, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Detroit finds a minor trade return from a club interested in giving Turnbull a fresh start.

The bullpen seems in good shape even after last winter’s Jiménez and Soto trades. They’ll likely let José Cisnero walk in free agency after a dismal second half. A quartet of Jason Foley, Alex Lange, Will Vest and Tyler Holton still gives Hinch a strong collection of options. Perhaps they’ll bring in a second left-hander behind Holton, but it’s a quality relief group.

Detroit erroneously thought the rebuild was over two years ago. They made the ill-fated trade of Isaac Paredes and a Competitive Balance draft pick for Meadows and pushed in for Báez. The internal core wasn’t ready to take the next step at that point. It might be now, with Torkelson, Greene and Carpenter emerging and Skubal reestablishing himself as a top-end starter. There are still holes; the middle infield will be particularly difficult to solve.

Still, there’s a solid MLB nucleus, a few more upper minors contributors looming, and a mostly clear payroll ledger now that the Cabrera contract is drawing to a close. The Tigers play in the sport’s least competitive division. After a year to familiarize himself with the organization, does Harris consider this the right time to make a real effort at ending a nine-year playoff drought?

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Tigers-centric chat on 9-27-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals were a little more competitive than expected into late summer. They’ve improved on last year’s 107-loss showing but are likely headed for a fourth straight last-place finish in the NL East. The rebuild continues.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Stephen Strasburg, RHP: $105MM through 2026 ($80MM in deferred payments between 2028-30)
  • Keibert Ruiz, C: $48MM through 2030 (deal includes club options for ’31 and ’32)
  • Patrick Corbin, LHP: $35MM through 2024 ($10MM in deferred payments between 2025-26)
  • Trevor Williams, RHP: $7MM through 2024

Option Decisions

  • Victor Robles, CF: $3.3MM club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if team declines

2024 commitments: $85MM
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $195MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Robles, Smith, Chavis, Vargas, Arano, Kieboom

Free Agents

The Nationals may have already made what’ll be their most consequential decisions for the upcoming season. With manager Dave Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo in the final years of their respective contracts, the possibility existed for large-scale organizational changes. Instead, Washington has locked in leadership stability in recent weeks. Martinez signed a two-year extension with a team option for 2026; Rizzo inked a multi-year pact of unreported length not long after.

Rizzo has been at the helm for nearly a decade and a half, a tenure exceeded only by Brian Cashman (Yankees) and John Mozeliak (Cardinals) among current baseball operations leaders. Martinez will be headed into his seventh season leading the dugout. Both have had success in Washington before their ongoing rebuild — highlighted by their 2019 World Series victory — offering reason for optimism they can lead the franchise back to success.

That’s unlikely to happen in 2024, however. The Nationals have made progress this year, as their win percentage is up from 34.5% to 43.9%. After finishing as the worst team in the majors in 2022, they own the game’s 24th-best record this season. Yet there’s still a wide discrepancy between the quality of the current roster and one that’s capable of competing for a playoff spot.

It’s most evident in the rotation, which is allowing exactly five earned runs per nine with the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Washington has had rare stability for a rotation performing at that level. Only six pitchers have logged even 30+ innings as starters.

On the plus side, their best performers have been a pair of young players who could be key pieces on the next competitive Washington club. Josiah Gray (4.00) and MacKenzie Gore (4.42) have the best ERAs of the group. Neither pitcher has developed into a top-of-the-rotation arm. They each still issue a few too many walks, while Gore has battled the home run ball. Gray’s production has tailed off in the second half. These issues aside, both hurlers have performed as big league-capable starters over a full season. They’ve done enough to secure spots in next year’s rotation, when the club will hope at least one takes a step forward to solidify himself as an above-average starter.

There’s not as much optimism for the rest of the group. Jake Irvin doesn’t miss bats and looks best suited as a depth option. Joan Adon has never found big league success. Veterans Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams are each under contract through 2024 and have taken their share of innings but without great production. Corbin is on his third straight season with an ERA above 5.00 as he plays on a lofty free agent contract that went awry after one year (albeit one in which he was a key contributor to the World Series win). The signing of Williams to a two-year deal last winter hasn’t panned out.

Stephen Strasburg remains on the roster after the surprising reversal of course on his planned retirement. Continuing to devote him a 40-man spot when he’s unlikely to ever pitch again is a bizarre decision on the organization’s part, though it’s not particularly consequential at this point of the rebuild.

Washington could run things back with the same rotation group, as everyone is either under contract or club control. Former first-round draftee Cade Cavalli could break back into the mix midseason after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. The Nats have options to plug innings, which isn’t true of every rebuilding team. Still, aside from a step forward from one of Gore or Gray, they couldn’t project much better results than they received this season. It’d be a surprise if they didn’t bring in at least one starter who could push Irvin back to Triple-A or Williams into the long relief role he’s had for the bulk of his career.

It’s hard to envision the Nats spending at the top of the market. They could offer a rotation spot to a rebound candidate like Luis Severino, Frankie Montas or Alex Wood in the hope that player could serve as a midseason trade chip. If they wanted to secure some stability over multiple years without making a huge financial commitment, they could consider the likes of Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

They’ll probably also add an arm or two to the relief corps, as Washington has the lowest bullpen strikeout rate in the league. It’s not time to play at the top of the market for Josh Hader or pursue a veteran closer in the Craig Kimbrel mold. There are a number of middle relievers who’ll be available on one or two-year deals that could add swing-and-miss to the group. Ryne Stanek, Shintaro Fujinami and Keynan Middleton are among the power arms available in free agency.

Any free agent pickups would join a relief corps led by Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and quietly effective waiver pickup Robert Garcia. The Nats could listen to trade offers on Finnegan or Harvey, though they’re not under pressure to make a deal with both pitchers eligible for arbitration through 2025.

There’s more reason for optimism on the other side of the ball. Washington has the potential for a strong future position player core, most of which was acquired in trades of their last group of stars. Keibert Ruiz and CJ Abrams are already playing regular roles on the big league club. Abrams has had a solid season to secure the shortstop job. Ruiz hasn’t broken through, but he’ll get every opportunity behind the plate after last winter’s $50MM extension that runs through 2030.

Riley Adams is a good complementary backstop, so there’s no need to add a catcher. They’ll likely look to bring in infield help around Abrams. They’ve closed the season giving regular run to Dominic Smith, Luis García and Ildemaro Vargas around the infield. Smith has hit .254/.324/.361 in 571 plate appearances after signing a $2MM deal last offseason and could be non-tendered.

García turns 24 next May, and may be young enough to get another shot at second base. It might be his last chance. The left-handed hitter owns a .265/.299/.382 line with nine homers over 466 trips to the plate this season. He’s now a .265/.292/.394 hitter in 1229 PA and 320 MLB games over parts of four seasons. While García has plus contact skills, he hasn’t shown a discerning plate approach nor much power. The profile is built around a largely empty batting average right now. That’d be more tenable if García were a plus defender, but public metrics have graded him as a below-average second baseman over his career.

While García has youth and prospect pedigree on his side, there’s no argument for giving Vargas the third base job. The journeyman infielder has a .251/.305/.363 slash over a career-high 274 plate appearances. He’s a versatile defender with contact skills but limited offensive upside, much better suited for a utility role. He has held down the hot corner since the Nats traded Jeimer Candelario at the deadline. They’ll need to look outside the organization again this winter.

Last year’s signing of Candelario to a $5MM deal after he was non-tendered by Detroit worked out perfectly. They’ll have a hard time repeating that level of success — most free agent rebound fliers don’t bounce back the way Candelario did — but the Nationals will probably take a shot on a similar style of player. Candelario himself has likely played his way into a three-plus year deal that’ll take him out of Washington’s price range. Players like Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Joey Wendle should be available on a one-year pact, or Nick Senzel or Santiago Espinal could be non-tendered or traded for minimal return.

A one-year stopgap is probably all that’ll be required. Former first-round pick Brady House played his way to Double-A, where he hit .324/.358/.475 in 36 games at age 20. While it’s too soon to count on House as a key contributor for 2024, he could debut late next year and hopefully seize the third base job headed into ’25.

Washington also has high-end prospects approaching the big league outfield. James Wood (acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto deal) and the 2023 draft’s #2 overall pick Dylan Crews are widely regarded as top 10 minor league talents in the sport. Wood joined House in reaching Double-A before his 21st birthday.  Wood ran an impressive .248/.344/.492 line with 18 homers across 87 games, and while the power-hitting outfielder struck out a fair amount, that’s to be expected for a 6’6″ hitter facing far older pitching. Crews shredded SEC arms at LSU and reached Double-A by the end of his draft year.

As with House, it’d be optimistic to expect either player at Nationals Park in the first half of next season. A promotion towards the middle or tail end of the year seems attainable, again offering hope they could be everyday players by 2025. It’s unlikely all three hit the ground running at the MLB level — even a lot of top prospects struggle out of the gate — but it’s an enviable collection of approaching talent.

When Wood and Crews arrive, they’d likely join Lane Thomas in the everyday outfield. The 28-year-old owns a .270/.319/.472 slash with 27 homers through 658 trips to the plate. He has destroyed left-handed pitching while hitting at a league average clip versus righties. While Thomas may be more of a complementary piece on a first-division club, he has proven an excellent find for Washington — which acquired him from the Cardinals for the final half-season of Jon Lester’s career in 2021.

Thomas is under arbitration control through 2025. His name surfaced in trade speculation this summer, though there’s no indication the Nats got all that close to making a deal. While they’ll surely find interest again, he doesn’t seem any more likely to move next winter than he did at the deadline. The organization’s long-term financial slate is clear enough that Thomas makes sense as an extension candidate. A guarantee in the $25-30MM range that buys out his remaining two arbitration seasons and first free agent year (2026) with a club option for a second could be mutually beneficial. It’d lock in some financial certainty for a relative late bloomer while ensuring Thomas doesn’t hit free agency before Washington is ready to contend.

As with third base, the Nats will probably bring in a veteran outfielder to hold the fort for a season. Former top prospect Victor Robles has missed the bulk of the year and seems a non-tender possibility. Neither Alex Call nor Jake Alu have provided any offense. Stone Garrett was a solid right-handed platoon option but suffered a gruesome leg injury that ended his season. Jacob Young doesn’t bring much offensive upside to the table in center field.

Washington guaranteed Corey Dickerson $2.25MM to add a veteran bat to the outfield last offseason. They’ll probably aim a little higher this time around. The likes of Hunter Renfroe and Adam Duvall could secure an annual salary in the $6-10MM range (perhaps for two years in Duvall’s case). Ramón Laureano or Seth Brown could be available following a non-tender. A corner outfield acquisition could take some DH at-bats from Joey Meneses — who has hit at a league average level in his follow-up to an excellent small-sample showing as a 30-year-old rookie — if Wood or Crews force their way to the big leagues early on.

There should generally be some short-term flexibility for Rizzo and his front office. Strasburg, Corbin, Williams and Ruiz are the only players with guaranteed contracts for next season. They have a deep class of arbitration-eligible players but none who are going to break the bank individually.

It’s less clear if there’s any appetite for a notable multi-year commitment. The franchise’s financial picture has been a question for a few seasons. The MASN rights dispute with the Orioles interfered with the Lerner family’s efforts to sell the club last year. It’s possible the Lerners again try to explore offers, though the TV situation isn’t much clearer now than it was 12 months ago.

The organization has sliced player payroll over the past few years. That’s standard procedure for a team amidst a rebuild, yet the ownership uncertainty takes on more significance as the club gets closer to contention. While the Strasburg and Ruiz contracts are the only ones running beyond next season, they’re on the hook for deferred payments of $15MM annually to Max Scherzer through 2028 and owe Corbin another $10MM in deferred salary over two more seasons. Strasburg’s contract won’t be paid in full until 2030.

Against those financial questions, the roster is beginning to take shape. The Nationals could have a viable position player core in place by 2025 depending on the progressions of Crews, Wood and House (as well as Abrams and Ruiz at the big league level). The pitching is less impressive overall, though Gray, Gore and Cavalli offer some intriguing individual pieces. Washington isn’t ready to compete yet, but things could be a lot more exciting at this time next year.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Nationals-centric chat on 9-26-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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In conjunction with this installment in our Offseason Outlook series, Steve Adams will be hosting a Royals-centric chat tomorrow morning at 9am CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live!

The Royals haven’t had a winning record since their storybook World Series victory back in 2015. Their first season in the wake of Dayton Moore’s firing as president of baseball operations yielded more of the same dismal results. They’ve now lost 100-plus games in three of the past six seasons, and it’ll be incumbent upon J.J. Picollo to turn things around in his second year atop the baseball operations hierarchy.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Salvador Perez, C/DH: $44MM through 2025 (including buyout of 2026 club option)
  • Jordan Lyles, RHP: $8.5MM through 2024
  • Jake Brentz, LHP: $1.05MM through 2024 (Brentz will remain arb-eligible through 2026)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

While last offseason brought about sweeping change with the firing of Moore and hiring of manager Matt Quatraro, the 2023-24 offseason should be quieter in terms of such big-picture machinations. Picollo won’t be supplanted one year into his tenure, and the Royals aren’t going to move on from Quatraro after one tough season. It’s possible that Picollo will continue to make changes further down the baseball operations ladder, however. One such move is already in place, as The Athletic’s Keith Law recently reported that Kansas City is hiring former Braves scouting director Brian Bridges. Holding that position from 2015-18, Bridges oversaw high-profile selections of talents like Austin Riley, A.J. Minter and Michael Soroka, in addition to some late-round bullpen finds like Evan Phillips and Jacob Webb.

Improvements in the scouting and draft process are a long-term play, of course. In terms of more immediately righting the ship in Kansas City, there’s no shortage of work to do. Royals starting pitchers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA (5.16) and fifth-fewest innings (760 1/3). That ERA is practically an identical match with a 5.15 team bullpen ERA that ranks 28th in MLB.

At the plate, the Royals are 24th in the Majors with 651 runs scored. Their collective 6.9% walk rate is second-worst among all MLB teams, and Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the barrel in terms of batting average (.243, 21st in MLB), on-base percentage (.302, 27th), slugging percentage (.396, 23rd) and home runs (156, 26th).

Complicating this year’s dismal across-the-board performance is the fact that the Royals were relying heavily on young players they hope (or hoped) can bring the team back to relevance in the near future. Many of those players largely failed the test.

Bobby Witt Jr. has proven himself to be a cornerstone player at shortstop, belting 29 homers and swiping 48 bases while playing premium defense. Third baseman Maikel Garcia hasn’t hit for power — nor was he projected to — but has swiped 23 bags and played good defense at the hot corner. He’s put the ball in play enough to help overcome a below-average walk rate and looks like he can have a long-term role in the infield, be it as a regular or as someone who eventually shifts to a heavily used utility player between third base, shortstop and second base. Assuming Vinnie Pasquantino’s recovery from surgery on a torn labrum in his right shoulder goes according to plan, he’ll be back at first base after hitting .272/.355/.444 in his first 133 MLB games.

With regard to the infielders, that’s about the extent of the development. Pasquantino’s injury opened more time for fellow first baseman Nick Pratto, but he’s yet to carry his huge 2021-22 minor league production over to the big leagues. Michael Massey has popped 14 homers, but his .225/.270/.375 slash is nowhere near strong enough to seize the second base job. Infield/outfield hybrids like Nate Eaton and Samad Taylor did not produce in small samples.

The Royals could well keep things in house here, as it’s a dismal market for second base options. Old friend Whit Merrifield presents the best potential option in free agency, but he’ll likely garner interest from contending clubs (assuming either he or the Jays decline half of his 2024 mutual option). The rest of the market is comprised of rebound candidates (e.g. Amed Rosario, Kolten Wong) or utility players (e.g. Enrique Hernandez, Donovan Solano). The trade market presents alternatives, but Kansas City may not have the pitching coveted by teams with infield talent to market such as the Cardinals (Nolan Gorman) or Reds (Jonathan India).

We’ll get to that lack of pitching in a bit, but the rest of the lineup also bears mentioning. The Royals don’t have a single outfielder who they can count on as a well-rounded performer heading into the 2024 season. Drew Waters and Kyle Isbel have yet to hit big league pitching. Edward Olivares has provided roughly average offense at the plate but is not a strong defender. Catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez worked almost exclusively in the latter of those two roles this year, and while he’s having a big second half at the dish, he grades out as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the sport. Deadline pickup Nelson Velazquez has erupted with 14 homers in 131 plate appearances and surely locked in a job in the process — but even he grades as a sub-par defender.

The Royals should add at least one outfielder this offseason — if not two. As with second base, it’s a thin market. Kansas City isn’t going to play at the top of the market for Cody Bellinger and Teoscar Hernandez, so unless the plan is to offer rebound opportunities to a Hunter Renfroe or Joey Gallo, this could be another area to focus on in the trade market. Their 2022 acquisition of Waters has yet to pan out. Their deadline pickup of Velazquez has been outstanding so far. Targeting similar young outfielders lacking in clear paths to playing time with their current organizations could prove shrewd.

Even behind the plate, the outlook isn’t as strong as it once was. While Salvador Perez still carries plenty of name recognition, this year’s .252/.291/.419 batting line is nowhere near the .273/.311/.526 output he turned in from 2020-22. And Perez may be a five-time Gold Glove winner, but he hasn’t taken that award home since 2018 — in large part because his defense continues to wane. He’s thwarted just 14% of stolen base attempts against him this winter (league average is 21%), and Statcast pegs him below-average in terms of both blocking pitches in the dirt and framing pitches.

It’d frankly be surprising if Perez’s name didn’t pop up in a trade rumor or two this winter — he almost always does — but such talk is generally brought about by media speculation rather than earnest chances of him being moved. There’s never been any strong chance that Perez will actually be traded. The Royals love him — they named him just the fourth captain in team history — and Perez has 10-and-5 rights that grant him full veto power on any deal. Further, given the $44MM remaining on his contract and aforementioned decline on both sides of the ball, Perez simply doesn’t have the trade value many would assume based on his track record and name.

There’s also no clear immediate heir apparent to Perez, and thus no great urgency to move him. The use of Melendez almost exclusively in the outfield this year suggests the Royals don’t believe he’s a viable full-time option there. Twenty-eight-year-old Freddy Fermin could be an option to begin cutting into Perez’s workload after a nice rookie showing, but a broken finger ended his season. Pursuing some veteran catching depth, even if just on a minor league deal, seems wise.

The previously mentioned lack of pitching is the most glaring problem for Kansas City, particularly considering the heavy investment in college arms that the Royals hoped would fill out their pitching staff in the long run. Their ballyhooed 2018-20 selections of Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Asa Lacy and Alec Marsh has yet to produce a clearly above-average starter. Singer has certainly looked the part at times, most notably in 2022, and he drew interest from the Reds (among others) at this year’s trade deadline despite some first-half struggles. His performance has only gotten shakier (6.87 ERA in his past seven starts), and at this point any trade of Singer would be selling low.

The composition of next year’s rotation is at least in part dependent on Zack Greinke’s plans. After signing a pair of one-year deals to return to his original organization, it seems like Greinke prefers to play out his final days in Kansas City. If he wants to come back for his age-40 season next year — which would allow him to take a run at multiple milestones, including 3,000 career strikeouts — the Royals might well give him the chance to do so. If not, they’ll be looking to replace roughly 200 innings between Greinke and Brad Keller, who is a free agent and is facing a cloudy outlook due to thoracic outlet symptoms.

While none of Singer, Lynch, Kowar or Bubic has developed as hoped, all are still in the organization. Singer and Lynch are the likeliest to have rotation jobs waiting. Kowar has already moved to the bullpen (and continued to struggle). Bubic is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Marsh has also debuted this year, pitching 70 innings in his MLB debut but recording a 5.66 ERA.

Despite the stalled nature of those college arms, the Royals aren’t without some hope in terms of success for their pitching development. Trade acquisition Cole Ragans, who came over from the Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman deal, has gone from a squeezed-out former first rounder in Texas to a focal point in the Kansas City rotation in no time at all.

Ragans had been relegated to bullpen work with Texas, but the Royals plugged him right into the rotation and have reaped immense benefits. After some slight tweaks to his repertoire, Ragans has pitched 65 1/3 innings of 2.34 ERA ball with a huge 31.3% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate. He’s faced a generally weak slate of opponents, but even if you expect some regression, it’s hard not to be encouraged by the turnaround.

Ragans, who’ll turn 26 this winter and is controllable for another five years, has punched his ticket to the 2024 rotation. Singer and Lynch figure to be back in there as well. Last offseason’s surprising two-year investment in Jordan Lyles should assure him a spot despite poor 2023 results (6.24 ERA in 30 starts).

The Royals need to add some arms, but they also need to focus on more than bulk innings. Last winter’s signings of Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough didn’t meaningfully raise the team’s ceiling. Kansas City still has Lyles’ bulk innings in the bank, so to speak, and Ragans gives them one potentially strong performer. The goal this time around should be to add some upside, and unlike the position-player market, free agency has several such candidates this offseason.

No one should expect the Royals to outbid the field for NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto — although their need for prime-aged pitching and largely blank payroll outlook arguably makes them an ideal team to take such a risk — but there are several interesting injury reclamation projects. Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and Tyler Mahle could all fit the bill, although Mahle will miss the first half of the season following Tommy John surgery. Jack Flaherty has had a down year overall but will pitch next season at just 28. Notably, the Royals had trade interest in Montas back in the 2021-22 offseason.

A similar gamble on the bullpen side of things would make sense. The Royals have gotten a quietly interesting run from righty James McArthur in recent weeks, as the righty has reeled off 13 1/3 shutout innings with three hits, no walks and 14 strikeouts since moving to the ’pen. Carlos Hernandez, armed with a triple-digit heater, was quite good through the end of July before hitting a rough patch down the stretch. Lefty Austin Cox has pitched decently in a bullpen role.

By and large, however, the Royals are lacking in established, dependable relievers. With Chapman and Scott Barlow both traded, they can offer a ninth-inning role to any free agent reliever they want to try to steer to Kauffman Stadium. They could give a longtime setup man like Reynaldo Lopez or Joe Jimenez a full-time closing gig. They could also roll the dice on any number of high-end injury reclamations (e.g. Drew Pomeranz, Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly) or perhaps just a former closer who’s had some struggles down the stretch in ’23 (e.g. old friend Will Smith). Any additions along those lines would give the Royals a chance at doubling down on their wildly successful signing of Chapman from last offseason.

Whichever specific targets Kansas City pursues, the resources should be there for Picollo and his staff. The Royals still owe since-released corner man Hunter Dozier $10MM, but there are only three other contracts on the books (Perez, Lyles, Jake Brentz). In all they have just $39.55MM in guaranteed money to be paid out. Arbitration raises will push that number forward, but any of Taylor Hearn, Taylor Clarke, Josh Taylor or Josh Staumont could conceivably be non-tendered. Other arb-eligible players like Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Hernandez aren’t going to break the bank. Their current contracts combined with arb raises should still total under $50MM.

That leaves at least a $40MM gap between the current group and this past season’s Opening Day payroll of about $91-92MM — perhaps a bit more, depending on trade scenarios and non-tenders. The Royals aren’t going to play at the very top of the market, and it bears emphasizing that free agency is a two-way street; they’re going to have a hard time selling Kansas City as a preferred destination to even second- or third-tier free agents who have any kind of demand. It might mean overpaying (as they did with Lyles) or delving even deeper into the free agent waters.

As is to be expected with any 100-loss team, the areas in need of improvement outweigh those where the team appears set. The Royals have some money to splash around in free agency a bit, but don’t expect any marquee additions. Upside plays for pitchers — where their spacious park is surely a bonus — and perhaps some additional trades to acquire controllable names in need of a change of scenery figure to follow. The Royals have more work to do than a team should after enduring eight straight losing or .500 seasons, and it’s going to take multiple years to get them back on track.

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