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2023-24 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The American League featured seven good teams in 2023, but with only six playoff spots, one of them had to be heartbroken. In the end, it was the Mariners, who couldn’t get back to the postseason after breaking their drought the year before. The good news is that most of the roster is sticking around for another shot at it, with plenty of payroll space for offseason additions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Julio Rodríguez, OF: $190MM through 2034 (can increase based on All-Star selections and awards voting; club has multi-year option after 2028, player has opt-out after 2029)
  • Luis Castillo, RHP: $91MM through 2027 (includes conditional club/vesting option for 2028)
  • Robbie Ray, LHP: $73MM through 2026 (includes opt-out after ’24)
  • J.P. Crawford, SS: $31MM through 2026
  • Evan White, 1B: $17MM through 2025 (includes buyout on ’26 option; club also has options for 27-28)
  • Eugenio Suárez, 3B: $13MM through 2024 (includes buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Marco Gonzales, LHP: $12MM through 2024 (club has ’25 option with no buyout)
  • Dylan Moore, IF/OF: $6.625MM through 2025
  • Andrés Muñoz, RHP: $4.5MM through 2025 (club has 26-28 options with no buyouts)

Option Decisions

  • None

Other Financial Commitments

  • None

2024 financial commitments: $102.8MM
Total future commitments: $459.125MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Torrens, Thornton, Rojas

Free Agents

The Mariners broke a 20-year playoff drought in 2022, winning 90 games and getting a Wild Card spot. They ran it back with a fairly similar roster in 2023 but regressed slightly to 88 wins. That was enough for them to miss the playoffs by just one game, getting eliminated in the final weekend of the season.

The good news is that the many of the same ingredients will remain on the roster with a small number of departing free agents, putting them in good position to compete again in 2024. Their best asset in 2023 was run prevention, as only the Brewers and Padres allowed fewer than the 659 runs Seattle surrendered. They did that in spite of losing Robbie Ray to Tommy John surgery early in the season, with rookies stepping up to fill the void.

Ray is currently expected back around the All-Star break, but the rotation looks to be in good shape without him. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock and Marco Gonzales give the club seven viable rotation options. Gonzales was injured for much of 2023 but made 32 starts the year before with a 4.13 ERA. Each of Miller, Woo and Hancock debuted this year with solid results, all of them posting an earned run average between 4.20 and 4.50. They each have options and can be kept in the minors if the club wants to preserve depth and manage their innings.

It’s possible that there are enough arms here that the club considers trading from this pile for offense. But they were in a similar situation last year and ended up hanging onto all of their starters. Since pitching injuries are fairly inevitable and eventually came to pass for Ray and Gonzales, the club is probably glad they picked that path and may do so again. But if they take a different tack this time, they would surely find plenty of interest. The Cardinals are just one of many clubs looking for starting pitching and have already been connected to Gilbert, but it’s unclear if the Mariners are interested in such a path.

In the bullpen, despite recent trades of Erik Swanson and Paul Sewald, there are still plenty of excellent pieces in place. Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash and Justin Topa each posted an ERA of 3.06 or lower this year, with solid contributions from Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo and others as well. The aforementioned trades of Swanson and Sewald show the club is not afraid of dealing from the bullpen to address other areas, but the midseason Sewald deal may have rubbed some the wrong way. Since that has echoes of the Kendall Graveman trade of years past, perhaps the club will opt for holding onto their relievers for now.

Whether it’s through trade or free agency, adding thump to the lineup figures to be a priority for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander this winter. Their 758 runs scored in 2023 was 12th in the majors, behind most other postseason clubs. Part of that is due to their pitching-friendly home ballpark but wRC+, which controls for such things, had them ninth. Teoscar Hernández had a down year relative to his own standards but his departure for free agency nonetheless increases the challenge of upgrading the offense.

The catcher position won’t be a high priority, as Cal Raleigh has emerged as one of the best power-hitting backstops in the league. Tom Murphy reaching free agency creates a bit of a hole at the backup spot, with Luis Torrens and Brian O’Keefe on hand to replace him. Bringing back Murphy or another veteran could be on the to-do list, though that’s likely not going to be where the club prioritizes adding offense. Even glove-first options like Luke Maile or Austin Hedges would be fine here.

On the infield, J.P. Crawford took a big step forward at shortstop but second base was a black hole. The club’s flier on Kolten Wong was disastrous, as he hit just .165/.241/.227 for the M’s. He got released and the club rotated Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore and José Caballero through the spot down the stretch. This is one clear spot where the club could look for upgrades but the free agent class isn’t strong, with Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier the headliners. None of those guys are likely to replace the production of the departing Hernandez but it would be hard for them to be worse than Wong. The trade market could offer Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India or Brendan Donovan, though it’s unclear how willing their respective clubs would be to make them available in offseason talks.

At the corners, Eugenio Suárez had a bit of a down year but it doesn’t seem to be too much cause for concern. His batting average and on-base percentage were close to his numbers from the year before, but his homers dropped from 31 to 22, which pushed his wRC+ down from 130 to 102. His hard hit rates were very similar from year to year yet his rate of fly balls leaving the yard dropped from 19.3% to 12.9%. Since he’s still under contract, it seems fair to expect the M’s will keep him at the hot corner and hope for better luck next year.

It’s a similar story at the other corner, with Ty France also experiencing a power dip as his hard hit rate and exit velocity stayed fairly steady. He hit just 12 home runs in 2023 after launching 20 the year before, causing his wRC+ to drop from 125 to 104. He’ll be due a raise to $7.2MM via arbitration, which will be good value if his luck turns next year. Mike Ford struck out in 32.3% of his plate appearances but also popped 16 homers in just 251 plate appearances. He’ll be due an arbitration raise but to barely above the league minimum, which should prompt the M’s to keep him around at least as a bench bat.

In the outfield, Julio Rodríguez is the anchor up the middle but both corners are now question marks. In left field, Jarred Kelenic was above-average overall but struck out in 31.7% of his plate appearances. Cade Marlowe had similar results in a small sample size. Dominic Canzone crushed a few balls but had an OBP of .258 thanks to a low walk rate and BABIP.

Kelenic probably did enough to earn a job next year, but Hernández will need to be replaced, meaning the club should add at least one corner outfielder. Hernández himself is the top of the class, but it’s possible the M’s let him walk in order to collect a draft pick after he rejects a qualifying offer. He’s coming off a down year and could consider accepting, but it’s a weak group of free agent hitters overall, which should nudge him towards the open market. Beyond him, the best options are players like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham, with Michael Conforto and Jorge Soler perhaps opting out of their deals. Any of those would be a good fit in Seattle, though it’s debatable whether any of them are clear upgrades over Hernández.

There’s also Cody Bellinger, who is the clear top outfield option overall. He won’t supplant Rodríguez in center but the M’s could theoretically sign him and move him to a corner spot. But since his ability to play above-average defense in center is part of his appeal, they could be outbid by a team with a cleaner roster fit.

Of course, the best way for the club to upgrade their lineup would be to sign Shohei Ohtani, though it’s tough to say how likely that is. Even though he won’t pitch in 2024, he figures to get a record-setting contract based on his elite hitting and the potential of returning to the mound in 2025. The Mariners have been seen as a potential Ohtani landing spot, given his supposed preference for a West Coast team and to play for a contender.

The Mariners fit on both counts and also have arguably the strongest legacy of using Japanese players. A lot of that is due to the legendary status of Ichiro Suzuki, but they have also had Yusei Kikuchi, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Nori Aoki, Hisashi Iwakuma and many others on their roster at various times throughout the years. That could have some degree of importance to Ohtani, but it would likely be supplementary to the primary concerns of the financials and the winning culture.

Speaking of the money, the Mariners are in a decent place there with barely over $100MM committed for 2024. That doesn’t include the arbitration class, but that only projects to add about $15-20MM, depending on who is tendered a contract. They had an Opening Day payroll over $137MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but were in the $150-160MM range prior to the pandemic. It seems fair to assume they would happily spend at that level again if it meant bringing Ohtani aboard, considering both his talents and the international marketing opportunities.

But they certainly won’t be the only team with a strong willingness to fit Ohtani onto the roster. The Dodgers can market themselves with a greater track record of winning than the Mariners, and also have higher spending capacity. Other clubs like the Giants, Angels, Rangers and Mets could all be argued to be sensible fits as well.

It’s possible that the offseason of the Mariners, and maybe the entire league, will start out slowly as the Ohtani situation plays out. There are many clubs that will have Ohtani as Plan A and everything else as Plan B. This applies to the Mariners perhaps as much as any other club.

That leaves open two distinct forks in the road ahead. On one path, the Mariners get Ohtani, who immediately gives them the lineup upgrade they need and creates a positive energy around the future of the club. Or they don’t get Ohtani and are looking to spread their money around to some combination of Bellinger, Hernández, Merrifield, Gurriel, Conforto, Frazier, Torres or Soler. One path is obviously more exciting than the other, but both should lead the club to a good place next year. Competing with the Astros and Rangers won’t be easy, but everything is in place for another three-team showdown in the West next year.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Mariners-specific chat on 10-13-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets endured one of the most disappointing seasons in history and now change is the name of the game. There’s a new front office regime in place, which will hopefully lead to better results going forward. It’s expected that they will be less aggressive this winter, but by how much?

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Other Financial Commitments

  • Paying $30.83MM to Rangers for Max Scherzer’s salary
  • Paying $31.3MM to Astros for Justin Verlander’s salary (plus half of $35MM vesting option in ’25, if triggered)
  • Paying $8MM to Orioles for James McCann
  • $250K buyout on 2024 club option for IF/OF Darin Ruf

2024 financial commitments (assuming options for Narvaez/Ottavino/Raley are all picked up): $218.98MM
Total future commitments (assuming options for Narvaez/Ottavino/Raley are picked up, not including Verlander’s ’25 option): $714.98MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Vogelbach, Hernández, Smith, Guillorme, Locastro, Coonrod, Brigham, Curtiss, Pérez, Mendick, Ortega

Free Agents

The Mets won 101 games in 2022 and then ran up the highest payroll in baseball history for 2023, going into the season with the greatest of expectations. Unfortunately, a rash of pitcher injuries put them behind the eight ball early on and they fell out of contention. As the summer wore on and the plane continued its descent towards the ocean, they had no choice but to reach for the emergency floatation devices. They traded Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha and David Robertson, often eating substantial amounts of money in order to improve their prospect returns.

After that fire sale, Scherzer told the media that he was informed the Mets planned to take a sort of step back in 2024. Owner Steve Cohen and then-general manager Billy Eppler sort of confirmed those remarks, with each adding that the club hopes to compete in ’24 but with a greater focus on ’25 and ’26. “We will be competitive in ’24 but I think ’25-26 is when our young talent makes an impact,” Cohen said at the time. “Lots of pitching in free agency in ’24. More payroll flexibility in ’25. Got a lot of dead money in ’24.”

That makes it unclear exactly how the club will approach the upcoming winter, but it won’t be Eppler calling the shots. David Stearns was hired to be the new president of baseball operations, leaving the Brewers and coming over to run the team he grew up cheering for. Since Milwaukee was generally quite competitive under Stearns despite limited payrolls, it’s hoped that he can bring even more success to Queens now that he will have Cohen’s resources at his disposal.

It was originally expected that Eppler would stay on as GM and work under Stearns, but he recently stepped aside amid a strange league investigation into the club’s use of the injured list. Stearns also fired manager Buck Showalter, leaving that position vacant as well. Presumably, replacing Showalter will be the higher priority, as Stearns should be capable of steering the front office without a GM for the time being.

Though the Mets ended up saving some money by selling at the deadline, they still have a payroll of $346MM for the year, per Roster Resource. That translates to a competitive balance tax figure of roughly $359MM, still well beyond the highest luxury tax threshold of $293MM, leading to a tax bill of over $88MM.

It seems they want to dial things back in the year to come, though there’s already plenty on the books, with RR pegging their 2024 payroll at $204MM and their CBT number at $219MM. That’s before factoring in estimated arbitration salaries. Pete Alonso alone will add over $20MM to both of those figures, putting them above next year’s $237MM base threshold for the luxury tax before the offseason even begins. They could move some money around if dipping under than line is a priority, but it doesn’t seem to be. Stearns has said the club plans to retain Alonso, while Cohen’s comments suggest the club is looking to bring in free agent pitchers this winter.

How aggressive they will be in that market remains to be seen, but there is definitely work to be done. With Scherzer and Verlander both out of the picture, the rotation is now headlined by Kodai Senga, who posted an excellent 2.98 earned run average in his first major league season. José Quintana missed much of 2023 due to injury but should be able to serve as a solid mid-rotation arm. After that is where things get murky. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, Peyton Battenfield and José Butto but the Mets likely don’t want to be relying on that group for anything more than depth.

That means they could realistically add two or three starters this winter. Given they are thinking of 2024 as a kind of transitional season, they probably won’t be aiming for top-of-the-market names like Blake Snell or Aaron Nola. Perhaps they would still consider Yoshinobu Yamamoto since he’s just 25 years old and would still line up with their future plans. But it’s also possible they target a lower level of free agency, perhaps taking fliers on bouncebacks from Frankie Montas or Luis Severino. Veterans like Kenta Maeda or Hyun Jin Ryu could eat some innings on short-term deals, with the knowledge that they may end up traded if the club is out of contention by next summer.

In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz will be back after a season lost to a fluke knee injury. Adam Ottavino seems likely to trigger his player option and come back for another season. Brooks Raley posted an ERA under 3.00 for a second straight year and the club should pick up his option, given the reasonable $5.25MM net decision. Trevor Gott should be in the mix after his decent season, especially after the club ate Chris Flexen’s contract to acquire him. But beyond that group, the bullpen core is a host of waiver claim types such as Phil Bickford and Anthony Kay.

A run at an expensive arm like Josh Hader or Robert Stephenson seems unlikely, but a few veterans on one-year deals would be sensible to strengthen the relief corps and also perhaps turn into deadline trade fodder. Craig Kimbrel, Matt Moore and John Brebbia are some of the many options there.

On the position player side, there should be less work to do. Francisco Álvarez took the catching job and ran with it this year. He received strong marks for his glovework while also popping 25 home runs. His offense was around league average on the whole thanks to a .209 batting average and .284 on-base percentage, but his .222 batting average on balls in play figures to improve going forward. Omar Narváez missed much of the year due to a calf strain and struggled after getting healthy but should be capable of serving as a solid backup.

Alonso figures to have first base spoken for, assuming he sticks around. His name was apparently discussed in trade rumors at the deadline but no deal came together. He’s entering his final arbitration season before he’s slated to reach free agency. As mentioned, Stearns has indicated the club plans to keep him for 2024 but he could wind up back on the trading block next summer if no extension is reached and the Mets aren’t in contention.

Francisco Lindor had yet another excellent season and should be back anchoring shortstop next year. He underwent surgery this week to remove a bone spur from his elbow but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. His double play partner will likely be Jeff McNeil, who started slow in 2023 but recovered in the second half. The Mets could theoretically add a second baseman and move McNeil to the outfield, but given the poor free agent market for middle infielders, it makes more sense to him to man the keystone. Middle infield prospect Luisangel Acuña could be a factor at some point next year, at which point McNeil could move to the grass.

Third base is a bit less certain, though there are internal options. Each of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio were highly-touted prospects on their way up but none of them have established themselves at the big league level yet. The club could consider a veteran stopgap here but it could also roll with a spring competition, leaving room for one of this group to break out and take the job.

The outfield will be anchored by Brandon Nimmo, who had a second straight healthy and productive season. The corners are a bit more questionable, especially with Starling Marte’s ongoing groin problems. He only played 86 games this year and had the worst showing of his career when healthy enough to play. With his injury absences and Canha being traded, DJ Stewart got a lengthy showing to finish the year. He struck out in 30.3% of his plate appearances but also hit 11 home runs in just 58 games. The power has been there before but he’s a poor fielder, which could perhaps lead the club to non-tender Daniel Vogelbach and make Stewart their left-handed DH.

There should be room for a veteran corner outfielder, or perhaps two if Marte remains a question mark. Assuming the club doesn’t go to the top available free agents like Teoscar Hernández or Lourdes Gurriel Jr., they could reunite with Tommy Pham or perhaps reach out to someone like Jason Heyward, Robbie Grossman or David Peralta.

It’s also possible the Mets throw their hat into the Shohei Ohtani bidding. It would be slightly incongruous to give out a record-setting contract in what’s supposed to be a quieter offseason, but it’s an unprecedented opportunity and Cohen can’t really be ruled out on anyone. Ohtani reportedly had a West Coast preference when he first came over from Japan but it’s in his best interest to entertain all suitors this time in order to maximize his earning power. He won’t be able to pitch in 2024 but could theoretically join the Mets’ rotation in 2025 while also adding a potent bat to the lineup right away.

The club is still a bit of a mystery this winter, especially with Cohen constantly deviating from standard operating procedure. Last winter’s aggression was unprecedented so it remains to be seen what his definition of a more modest offseason looks like. But with the division featuring a couple of powerhouse teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia as well as a Marlins club that’s coming off a strong campaign, it seems fair to expect the Mets play things somewhat cautiously for now, keeping their eyes on a future that will hopefully have plenty to be excited about with the Stearns-Cohen pairing.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Padres-specific chat on 10-12-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres are on the shortlist for the league’s most disappointing team in 2023. They came up shy of the postseason despite a star-studded roster that entered the year with championship aspirations. They’ll make another run at competing next season, albeit with newfound payroll questions that suggest they’ll probably lose the presumptive NL Cy Young winner and their elite closer to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Nick Martinez; if club declines, Martinez holds two-year, $16MM player option
  • Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Michael Wacha; if club declines, Wacha has respective $6.5MM, $6MM and $6MM player options through 2026
  • RHP Seth Lugo holds $7.5MM player option
  • DH Matt Carpenter holds $5.5MM player option

Other Financial Commitments

  • Owe $24.5MM to Red Sox through 2025 as condition of Eric Hosmer trade

2024 financial commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $134.76MM
Total future commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $1.232 billion

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Hill, Nola, Morejón

Free Agents

A late-September tear against mostly bad teams nudged the Padres past .500. That’s no consolation for a club that entered the year as co-favorites in the NL West alongside the Dodgers and a trendy World Series pick. San Diego had bolstered last year’s NLCS squad with another massive contract, signing Xander Bogaerts for 11 years and $280MM. With Fernando Tatis Jr. returning from last year’s wrist surgery/PED suspension, everything was supposed to come together in 2023.

If the team ever really clicked, it didn’t happen until they were buried in the standings. As was the case two years ago, the Padres’ disappointing finish came with reports of internal strife. In 2021, clubhouse discord contributed to San Diego’s decision to dismiss manager Jayce Tingler. This year, reports from The Athletic and the San Diego Union-Tribune cast renewed questions about the locker room — with a reported rift between president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and second-year manager Bob Melvin drawing the most attention.

As the season wound down, there was some question about whether the Preller – Melvin relationship had become untenable. Ownership clearly doesn’t believe that to be the case. After an end-of-season meeting between Preller, Melvin and chairman Peter Seidler, the parties agreed to keep the leadership structure in place. Seidler released a statement expressing his “full support” for that duo; Preller confirmed two days later that Melvin is “going to be (the) manager going forward.”

There could be far more turnover with the roster itself. Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune reported last month that the Friars were shooting for a player payroll in the $200MM range for next season, pointing to a need to comply with MLB’s debt service ratio. That’d likely keep them in the upper third of the league but represents a notable cut. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Friars finished this season with a payroll just under $250MM and had an estimated luxury tax number near the $293MM final penalization threshold.

That’ll make things difficult for Preller and his front office as they try to more effectively balance the roster. San Diego’s player spending is a little more manageable than fans might expect given their repeated top-of-the-market strikes. Machado ($13MM) and Tatis ($11MM) are playing on relatively light salaries as part of backloaded extensions. (Machado is also owed a $10MM signing bonus this December 1, although it’s not clear if the Padres consider that part of their approximate $200MM calculus for next season.) The Friars’ 11-year commitment to Bogaerts meant his annual salary is a fairly palatable $25MM.

San Diego’s payroll opening the offseason will be defined by a handful of upcoming options decisions. Matt Carpenter is going to exercise a $5.5MM player provision; Seth Lugo will decline a $7.5MM option in search of a multi-year deal.

The Friars have matching two-year options at $16MM annually on Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez. Given their reported payroll situation, it seems likely they’ll decline their end of both provisions. It’s not an unreasonable amount for Wacha in isolation, but it’d be harder to justify if San Diego has somewhat limited spending room. Wacha would subsequently decline the first of three player options valued in the $6-6.5MM range; Martinez would have a two-year option at $8MM annually that’ll be an interesting call.

If Carpenter and Martinez opt in while Wacha and Lugo test free agency, the Padres’ 2024 salary commitments would check in around $135MM (not counting Machado’s bonus but including the $12+MM they’re sending to the Red Sox on the Eric Hosmer deal). That doesn’t account for a massive arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a record-setting $33MM salary for Juan Soto in his final season of eligibility. Scott Barlow and Trent Grisham are projected at a combined $12MM. That puts the organization at roughly $180MM before considering outside additions. Unless plans of payroll cuts are dramatically overstated, they’re not likely to make a legitimate run at Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger or Yoshinobu Yamamoto the way they might have in previous offseasons.

Given that financial picture, it’s natural that opposing fanbases have speculated about the possibility of a second blockbuster Soto trade in as many years. San Diego doesn’t have to move him. It’s possible to accommodate a $200MM payroll with their existing commitments and Soto’s projected salary. Doing so would require an austere offseason, though, potentially paired with a trade of another notable but less impactful player or two. San Diego hasn’t suggested any plans to shop Soto but hasn’t taken a trade off the table either.

With one season of remaining control, Soto’s trade value is markedly lower than it was at the 2022 deadline. The Padres wouldn’t get near the level of talent — five young players headlined by MacKenzie Gore, James Wood and CJ Abrams — which they sent to the Nationals to acquire him.

The Mookie Betts deal is the most obvious precedent for a superstar traded before his final arbitration season. The Red Sox received five years of club control on a solid regular (Alex Verdugo), a borderline Top 100 prospect (Jeter Downs) and a mid-level prospect (Connor Wong) while also offloading around $48MM on the David Price contract. The deal didn’t work out for Boston. Verdugo never developed into more than a solid player, while Downs barely reached the majors. Yet it’s a general benchmark for the Padres if they were to consider moving Soto. They presumably wouldn’t also attach an underwater contract, so topping a package headlined by two highly-regarded but not elite controllable talents should be viable.

It’s arguable whether that’s preferable to simply keeping Soto for his final arbitration season. The Padres would get one more year in which he anchors the lineup. They could deal him at the deadline if they’re again underperforming, while he’d clearly receive the qualifying offer next offseason if they kept him on the roster. Even if they don’t anticipate re-signing him — Preller unsurprisingly suggested they’ll reengage with Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation this winter — a trade isn’t inevitable.

Keeping Soto would limit their flexibility elsewhere on the roster. San Diego has arguably the best group of impending free agents of any team. Blake Snell is likely to be named NL Cy Young a couple days before hitting the market. Josh Hader has a good chance of topping the $102MM contract record for relievers which Edwin Díaz established last winter.

Even with their payroll questions, the Padres will obviously make a qualifying offer to each of Snell and Hader. There’s no chance either player accepts a one-year deal, which would entitle San Diego to modest compensation in next year’s draft. As a luxury tax payor, the Friars would receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for each player if they sign elsewhere.

Watching both depart appears likely. The Padres seemed to preemptively prepare for Hader’s departure last offseason with a stunning five-year, $46MM commitment to Robert Suarez. Between the hard-throwing righty and the trade deadline acquisition of Barlow, they’ll have options for the ninth inning. While losing Hader would be a huge blow to any bullpen, the Padres should have other priorities.

None is bigger than the rotation. San Diego’s starting staff somewhat quietly led the majors in ERA and finished fifth in strikeout rate. That’s in large part thanks to their impending free agents, who were arguably their three top starters. Snell was utterly dominant from June onwards. Wacha (3.22) and Lugo (3.57) each turned in sub-4.00 ERA showings over 130+ frames. Lugo would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Padres were operating at their typical spending capacity. Given the expected constraints, the chance he accepts a one-year offer worth around $20.5MM and the mid-round pick they’d receive if he walks, they’ll probably opt not to make the offer.

Those possible departures leave the Friars with only two locks for the starting staff. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish ended this season on the injured list. They’re expected to be ready for Spring Training. If Martinez returns, he could have a clearer rotation opportunity than he’s had in the last two years, when he has spent most of his time as a multi-inning reliever. The Padres have the option to retain Wacha, although a $16MM salary is probably too much of a commitment to lock in before free agency even gets underway. Neither Pedro Avila nor Matt Waldron pitched well enough to secure a spot in the Opening Day five.

The Padres need to bring in two or three starters. Options toward the lower tiers of free agency include Michael Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, James Paxton, Martín Pérez and Hyun Jin Ryu. Luis Severino is a candidate for a one-year pillow contract. Swingman Jakob Junis could market himself as a starter in search of a two-year deal in the range of what the Friars offered Lugo last winter. The Padres have been aggressive in targeting players from Asian professional leagues. Perhaps they’ll inquire on former Nationals righty Erick Fedde, who turned in a 2.13 ERA over 28 starts in his first season in South Korea.

They’ll likely bring in at least one arm via trade. Paul Blackburn, Spencer Turnbull, Adrian Houser and Cal Quantrill are among affordable arbitration-eligible hurlers who could be attainable. None of those pitchers would cost an immense prospect return. San Diego still has a few names at the top of the farm system (e.g. Ethan Salas, Jackson Merrill, Robby Snelling) whom they could ostensibly dangle if an impact starter with multiple seasons of club control (perhaps Logan Gilbert or Dylan Cease) came available.

San Diego could also deal off the big league team to find more balance on the roster. Barlow’s $7.1MM projected salary makes him a possible candidate, although it’d leave the Padres with very little in the way of setup options to pave the way to Suarez. Grisham is projected at just under $5MM and down to two seasons of control. He’s an excellent defensive center fielder but a .191/.300/.347 hitter since the start of 2022.

Given how well Tatis acclimated to right field defensively, the Friars could consider moving him to center and shopping Grisham. They’d have to bring in another corner bat opposite Soto at that point. It’s not a robust free agent class for hitters. Ramón Laureano, Harold Ramírez and Dylan Carlson are among the trade possibilities if the Padres wanted to search for more offensive upside than Grisham provides without taking on notable salary. Were the Padres to move Soto, they’d have to take a bigger swing in the outfield — whether a trade candidate like Anthony Santander or a free agent pursuit of KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.

Their last pursuit of a hitter from South Korea worked out excellently. Ha-Seong Kim is headed into the final season of a four-year, $28MM free agent deal. He’s a plus defender who can move around the infield and has hit .256/.338/.391 over the last two years. Kim would be an in-demand trade candidate if San Diego made him available. Between his affordability and a dreadful free agent class for middle infielders, Kim would be the Padres’ most desirable realistic trade candidate aside from Soto.

Dealing Kim would open up second base for Jake Cronenworth, who is miscast at first. Yet it’d also subtract one of the Padres’ best position players without clearing a huge chunk of payroll space. While Preller and his staff probably won’t foreclose the possibility entirely, the price would be high.

If they hold Kim, he’d likely return to the keystone. Machado and Bogaerts are the presumptive left side infield. Machado could be delayed early in the season as he recovers from elbow surgery, but he’s expected back early enough in the season the Padres don’t have to worry about the hot corner. Bogaerts recent conceded he might not be much longer for shortstop (link via Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune). That raises the possibility of a position swap for Bogaerts and Kim but doesn’t materially change the infield construction.

The Padres should bring in some more offensive punch for the first base/DH mix. Last winter’s signings of Carpenter and Nelson Cruz didn’t pan out, nor did deadline acquisitions of Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper. With the latter two headed for free agency, the Padres should take another swing at first base. Brandon Belt could be a free agent target, while Rowdy Tellez is a non-tender possibility. Adding a bat-first player would deepen the bench while freeing Cronenworth for a multi-position role.

If the Padres were to take a bigger free agent swing, Mitch Garver would be a strong on-paper fit. The Ranger slugger is a primary DH who can catch on occasion. The Padres will likely bring in a complement to Luis Campusano behind the dish while non-tendering Austin Nola. If Garver proves too expensive and/or receives a qualifying offer from Texas, Tom Murphy could be an affordable “Garver-lite” free agent target.

San Diego has one of the wider-open outlooks for any team. They’re likely to lose a couple marquee free agents but still have plenty of star talent at the top of the roster. They’re certainly not about to rebuild. Yet next year’s roster could look quite different from the 2023 version, especially on the pitching staff. The Padres have been one of the sport’s most unpredictable teams throughout Preller’s tenure. That’s not going to change this year.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Padres-specific chat on 10-11-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers reached the playoffs for the fifth time in sixth seasons, but were upset and swept out of the Wild Card Series by the Diamondbacks, triggering a quick start to what might be a somewhat transformative offseason.  Longtime manager Craig Counsell is out of contract come November and has been non-committal about his future in Milwaukee, while the Brewers face tough decisions on a trio of prominent players.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $136.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of 2029 mutual option)
  • Aaron Ashby, SP: $18.5MM through 2027 (includes $1MM buyout of 2028 club option; Brewers also hold $13MM club option for 2029 with no buyout)
  • Freddy Peralta, SP: $7MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of 2025 club option)

Total 2024 commitments: $32.75MM
Total future commitments: $162MM

Option Decisions

  • Mark Canha, 1B/OF: $11.5MM club option for 2024 ($2MM buyout)
  • Wade Miley, SP: $10MM mutual option for 2024 ($1MM buyout)
  • Andrew Chafin, RP: $7.25MM club option for 2024 ($725K buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, RP: $2.5MM club option for 2024 ($150K buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

With speculation swirling for years about the possibility of David Stearns leaving the Brewers to run the Mets’ front office, a subsection of rumors also formed around Counsell, whose contract (like Stearns) was up at the conclusion of the 2023 season.  Stearns’ deal allowed him to start negotiating with other teams on August 1, and it took a little over a month before Stearns indeed ended up as New York’s new president of baseball operations.  Firing Buck Showalter was one of Stearns’ first decisions as PBO, thus leaving the Mets in need of a new manager.

Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has been open about his desire to retain Counsell, though the skipper asked that any contract talks be put off until after the season.  This would seemingly set the stage for Counsell to make a clean exit to Queens, or perhaps to one of the other managerial vacancies (Giants, Guardians, Angels) around the game, or maybe to a season or two away from baseball entirely to recharge his batteries.  Only Counsell knows what his next step will be, and should he indeed depart, Attanasio and president of baseball operations Matt Arnold will have to add a new managerial hire to the top of the offseason to-do list.

Though Stearns, possibly Counsell, and possibly at least one of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Willy Adames won’t be back next season, it doesn’t seem like the Brewers will entertain the idea of a rebuild.  This is still a talented roster that just won 92 games, and both Attanasio and Arnold seem committed to the idea of perpetual contention in the model of the Rays or Guardians, without the need to ever fully tear things down like other medium-to-small market teams.

That still means some tough budget decisions will have to be made, however.  This offseason has always been seen as something of a flashpoint for the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames trio, as all three are entering their final trip through the arbitration process and are scheduled for free agency following the 2024 campaign.  As per Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections for MLBTR, the trio are set to earn roughly $39.1MM in salary next year.  Combined with the $26MM that Christian Yelich will receive, that’s four players covering around $65.1MM in payroll for a team whose entire Opening Day payroll in 2023 was a touch under $118.8MM.  Among the arbitration class, the likely non-tenders of Rowdy Tellez and Eric Lauer will free up some cash, but closer Devin Williams is also getting a significant raise in his second year of arb eligibility.

If Attanasio feels the team is still close to a championship, could he okay a one-year payroll boost and retain all of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames for what would essentially be a “last dance” season?  In theory yes, though it seems like 2023 might’ve already been that last dance.  As much Milwaukee fans dislike the idea of prominent players being dealt for financial reasons, a canny trade would allow the Brew Crew to both save some money and acquire some talent to help the team in both 2024 and beyond.

Keeping all of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames even until the next trade deadline would carry further risk, for one because the 2022 Josh Hader deal is an example of how such a trade can disrupt a clubhouse at midseason.  Furthermore, the players’ trade value could be lessened or erased completely in the event of injury or under-performance — a circumstance that has perhaps already happened with two of the three.

Woodruff pitched only 67 innings in 2023 due to a subscapular strain in his right shoulder, and more shoulder problems arose right as the postseason began, keeping Woodruff off the playoff roster.  Even if this current issue does prove to be relatively minor, rival teams might already be scared off at the idea of trading for an injured pitcher, and the Crew doesn’t want to sell low.

In the worst-case scenario of a major shoulder injury, Woodruff missing some or all of the 2024 season has greater impact than just on his trade status.  For one, the Brewers might be less inclined to move Burnes if they know they’ll also be losing their other ace to the injured list.  Woodruff’s health situation might erase the “need” for a trade, since otherwise, Burnes seems like the clear sell-high candidate of the trio after another All-Star season.

Even in an offseason with a pitching-heavy free agent market, clubs unwilling or unable to spend on a big long-term free agent deal will have plenty of interest in one year of Burnes’ services.  Conceivably, the Brewers could aim to land pitching as part of a Burnes trade to bolster the rotation in the event of a Woodruff injury.  As indicated by last offseason’s three-team swap between the Brewers, Athletics, and Braves, Arnold is willing to get creative in trades, so the team obtaining Burnes wouldn’t necessarily be the team also giving up an arm in return.

Rotation depth has traditionally been a strength for the Brewers, particularly in a 2023 season that saw several starters miss significant stretches.  But, beyond Burnes, Woodruff, and Lauer’s probable non-tender, Colin Rea and Julio Teheran (who combined for 33 starts) are free agents, and Wade Miley can also re-enter free agency by declining his end of a mutual option.  Without any of these arms, the Brewers’ top rotation options are now Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, Aaron Ashby returning after missing all of 2023 due to shoulder surgery, rookie Janson Junk and his nine career MLB games, and pitching prospect Robert Gasser on the verge of his Major League debut.

Re-signing Rea or Teheran might not be too expensive, and a reunion with Lauer is possible on a lower salary than his $5.2MM arbitration projection.  Miley could potentially also stay if the Brew Crew negotiated a new contract, but if not, expect Milwaukee to target another Miley-esque veteran hurler who can add some stability and innings on a short-term deal.

Given how starting pitching has been the backbone of the Brewers’ run of contending teams, this much flux heading into the offseason is certainly unsettling for the club, making Woodruff’s health a huge X-factor.  It does help that Milwaukee will be bringing back pretty much everyone from one of the game’s better relief corps, and it’s safe to expect a couple more bullpen arms to be cycled in and out as the Brewers look to find another hidden gem of a relief option.

The Brewers’ pitching and defense helped carry the team to the NL Central crown despite an offense that was inconsistent at best.  Considering that the Crew need lineup reinforcement and infield help in particular, they might be more compelled to hang onto Adames, despite his down year at the plate.  Adames hit 24 homers and still provided outstanding shortstop defense, but his 94 wRC+ (from a .217/.310/.407 slash line) was well below the 116 wRC+ he posted from 2020-22, as Adames’ hard-contact rates plunged this season.

Adames’ bat did come back to life over the last six weeks of the schedule, so it could be that the 28-year-old simply had an unusually prolonged slump.  If looking for possible causes, his usual spring routine was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic, and Adames only played in one game for the Dominican Republic.  It could be that with a full and normal Spring Training, Adames will look more like his normal self in 2024, which is good news for the Brewers…or a new team.

Brice Turang is a gifted enough fielder to at least replace Adames’ glovework at shortstop, but Turang didn’t show much at the plate in his rookie year.  Turang had a 60 wRC+, the second-lowest of all MLB players with at least 400 plate appearances last season.  While it’s too early to assume that Turang can’t become at least a passable hitter, he is already slated to be Milwaukee’s first choice at second base next season, so it just creates another hole on the diamond if Turang was moved to shortstop in the event of an Adames trade.  Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller had their moments in 2023 and Abraham Toro could contribute if he isn’t non-tendered, but the Brewers might prefer having this group as utility depth rather getting steady playing time in a second base platoon.

Or, a third base platoon, since the hot corner was a revolving door for much of 2023.  Brian Anderson and Monasterio handled the bulk of the playing time, but Anderson has already been released, and the Brewers aren’t likely to bring back late-season pickup Josh Donaldson.  Prospect Tyler Black played a lot of third base at Triple-A Nashville last season and is expected to make his MLB debut in 2024, though it remains to be seen if third base will necessarily be his primary position, as he has been shuffled all around the diamond trying to find an ideal defensive spot.

First base was also a weak link before trade deadline acquisitions Mark Canha and Carlos Santana helped stabilize things, though Santana is a free agent and the Brew Crew have a $9.5MM decision to make on Canha’s club option.  It might not have been a decision Milwaukee necessarily expected to make when they landed Canha from the Mets, yet Canha played so well (.800 OPS in 204 PA) as a Brewer that exercising the option might easily solve one lineup concern.

Canha would probably primarily play first base, but his ability to also play both corner outfield slots provides extra depth, and perhaps gives the Crew some extra leverage in trading from their outfield depth.  Moving an outfielder for a third baseman in particular could be helpful, since the list of free agent third-base options isn’t deep, and the Brewers aren’t likely to be spending in the Matt Chapman/Jeimer Candelario tiers.

Turning to the outfield, Christian Yelich isn’t exactly back in his old MVP form, but his 122 wRC+ was his highest since 2019.  He’s still locked into the left field spot, though Yelich figures to get some DH days to open up playing time for former top prospects Garrett Mitchell (who missed most of the year due to shoulder surgery) and Sal Frelick, as well as Tyrone Taylor and rookies Blake Perkins and Joey Wiemer.  While Yelich is the only established player of this group, there could be enough of a surplus here for the Brewers to explore trades, especially since another highly-touted youngster is waiting in the wings.

Jackson Chourio doesn’t celebrate his 20th birthday until March, but he is already ranked as one of baseball’s very best prospects after tearing up the minors over his three pro seasons.  Chourio has only six games and 24 PA at the Triple-A level, so it is possible Milwaukee starts him back at Triple-A to begin the season to get the outfielder some more seasoning.  However, between Chourio’s intriguing potential and the Prospect Promotion Incentive opportunity open to the Brewers, a big Spring Training performance might put Chourio in center field for Milwaukee on Opening Day.

Since Chourio figures to make his MLB debut at some point in 2024, the Brewers might hold off on an outfield trade until they see how everything shakes out.  Frelick and Mitchell aren’t likely going anywhere, but Wiemer is a former top-100 prospect and Taylor has generally been a solid part-timer over his five MLB seasons.  Those latter two players might hold appeal to other teams, if perhaps as part of a package deal rather than in a notable one-for-one swap.

Turning to the final bench spot, free agent Victor Caratini had a solid season as William Contreras’ backup, and might look for more playing time with another team.  The Brewers would surely like to re-sign Caratini if possible, but they’ll be on the lookout for another veteran backstop if necessary.  The good news is that the Crew don’t necessarily have to limit themselves to glove-first types, as Conteras made such impressive strides with his blocking and framing that he now looks like an above-average catcher on both defense and offense.

Contreras is the latest example of how the Crew have been able to continually reload their roster.  The infamous Hader trade led to Gasser and Esteury Ruiz joining the Brewers, which led to Ruiz being sent to the A’s as part of that three-team deal that resulted in Contreras and ace setup man Joel Payamps coming to Milwaukee.  Naturally not every trade is going to work out quite as swimmingly, but it does provide hope that if Burnes, Adames, or Woodruff are indeed moved, Arnold will be able to again bring back a noteworthy return.

Arnold will have to weigh his big trade decisions against how to best upgrade the existing quality on the roster, all while not creating any roadblocks for the impending arrival of Chourio, Black, and Gasser.  Counsell’s future and Woodruff’s shoulder are the two biggest topics facing Milwaukee as the offseason begins, but the Brewers enter a potentially fascinating winter.

Click here to read the Brewers-centric live chat Mark Polishuk with MLBTR readers.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels collapsed in the second half and came up short of the playoffs yet again. Now they enter the offseason they’ve been dreading. Shohei Ohtani will be a free agent, putting the franchise at a potential inflection point. They’ll need to commit to an organizational direction behind their fourth manager in six seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $117.2MM
Total future commitments: $427.4MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Phillips, Barria, Wallach, Walsh, Suarez, Quijada

Free Agents

The Angels have had the 2023-24 offseason circled for a while. It has served as a possible endpoint to their window of rostering two of the best players in the world. At least since Shohei Ohtani truly broke through as an MVP talent in 2021, the upcoming winter has been a concern. The organization knew it was running low on time to build a winner during Ohtani’s window of control.

For a team that has desperately been in win-now mode for three-plus seasons, the Angels haven’t done much winning. They’ve tried to compensate for a generally thin organizational pipeline by addressing needs through free agency, always a step behind where they needed to be.

In 2021, the starting rotation wasn’t good enough. Last year, they gave too many at-bats to replacement level position players. They tried to bolster the overall depth last offseason, signing Brandon Drury, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez while acquiring Hunter Renfroe and Gio Urshela in trade. Still on the fringe of the playoff race at the deadline, they pushed in for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López (plus a number of role playing veteran hitters) in hopes of salvaging one playoff run while Ohtani was still guaranteed to be on the roster.

It didn’t work. The Halos pivoted a few weeks later, waiving many of their highest-priced players in an effort to dip back below the luxury tax line. Even the organization doesn’t yet know if that effort was successful, as their tax number won’t be finalized until the end of the year. If they did go over the base threshold, the actual bill would be minuscule, as teams are only taxed on their overages. The more significant aspects are that teams pay escalating penalties for surpassing the line in consecutive seasons and that paying the luxury tax reduces the compensation teams receive for losing a qualified free agent.

That, of course, brings things back to Ohtani. The Angels will make Ohtani the QO. He will decline. If he subsequently signs elsewhere, the compensation the Halos receive would differ depending on whether they actually surpassed the tax threshold. If their CBT number is under $233MM, it’d be a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (typically around 75th overall). If they’re still over the line, the compensatory draft choice falls between Rounds 4 and 5.

Neither is a good outcome. The Angels unsurprisingly maintain they hope to re-sign Ohtani. The presumptive AL MVP hasn’t tipped his hand about free agent preferences. There’s no doubt the Halos will be involved in the bidding. Would they be willing to offer a contract pushing or exceeding half a billion dollars to retain him?

Owner Arte Moreno hasn’t been shy about spending on star talent, from the Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon free agent pickups to the Mike Trout extension. Yet even those megadeals are likely to land well below Ohtani’s ultimate signing price, while this is the first time in two decades that the Halos have shown a willingness to surpass the luxury tax threshold.

Even if Moreno is willing to play at the top of the market financially, the Angels will have to sell Ohtani on their ability to compete over the coming seasons. They’re tied with the Tigers for the game’s longest active playoff drought at nine years. They don’t have a single prospect on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 list.

The MLB team just finished 73-89 for a second consecutive season while Ohtani was playing on a $30MM arbitration salary and pitched 132 innings. At season’s end, they declined an option to retain skipper Phil Nevin. They’re now searching for their fifth manager since Ohtani’s 2018 rookie season. They already have north of $117MM in guaranteed salary on the books, most of it tied up in the Rendon and Trout deals. The arbitration class is likely to tack on around $16MM after non-tenders. That leaves about $79MM before reaching this year’s Opening Day payroll figure, though an Ohtani deal could account for more than half of that.

The best case scenario is that the Halos manage to retain Ohtani, who won’t pitch next season following elbow surgery, on a free agent contract that pays far more than he made this year– likely above Aaron Judge’s $40MM record salary for a position player. They wouldn’t have much room to address anything else on the roster before getting back to franchise-record payroll levels. Barring a huge jump in spending, it’s hard to see how the Angels look better entering 2024 than they did going into ’23.

That all makes the Halos feel like a relative long shot to keep their franchise player. Were he to sign elsewhere, this would look like a clear rebuilding roster. They were 16th in runs this past season despite Ohtani’s .304/.412/.654 showing. Playing the second half without Trout, who suffered a hamate fracture on July 4, obviously played a role in that. Yet Trout has played in less than half the team’s games over the last three seasons. Now that he’s into his 30s, the three-time MVP might not be capable of shouldering a 150+ game workload as he did at his peak.

The rest of the lineup has some bright spots but is middling overall. Logan O’Hoppe is a promising young catcher. He lost most of this year to a labrum tear but is the clear long-term starter. Veteran Max Stassi was out all season between a hip injury and a family medical concern. Hopefully, he’ll be able to return next season as the backup.

Los Angeles cycled through a number of infielders. David Fletcher was on and off the roster and no longer looks like a regular. He’ll remain in the organization because he’s under contract for two more seasons and doesn’t have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment without forfeiting the $14MM remaining on his deal. He could be waived again this offseason, though.

The Halos brought in Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron and Eduardo Escobar as midseason stopgaps. They’re all headed to free agency — the Angels will buy out Escobar for $500K rather than exercise a $9MM option — and seem unlikely to be retained. Urshela is also headed to the open market and could find a two-year deal elsewhere. Former All-Star Jared Walsh is likely to be non-tendered after a second straight down year that temporarily cost him his spot on the 40-man roster.

Despite those players departing, the Angels have a handful of infielders. Zach Neto had a solid rookie season and should be the long-term shortstop. 21-year-old Kyren Paris saw late-season action there but didn’t hit in his first 15 MLB games and should start next year back in the minors.

At first base, the Halos hurried Nolan Schanuel to the majors within a few weeks of drafting him 11th overall out of Florida Atlantic. While the last-ditch effort to compete didn’t work, the 21-year-old handled himself remarkably well given the circumstances. Schanuel walked more than he struck out, hit .275, and reached base at a huge .402 clip in his debut. He only had four extra-base hits and slugged just .330. There’s room for debate about whether the Angels should send Schanuel back to the minors to try to develop his power. His strong on-base skills at least put him in the running for the starting first base job on Opening Day, though.

Drury and Luis Rengifo will be in the everyday lineup if they’re still on the roster. They were two of the Halos’ better offensive performers, with Rengifo having a particularly impressive second half. A fluke biceps rupture sustained while taking swings in the on-deck circle ended his season two weeks early. He underwent surgery and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Each of Drury and Rengifo should draw trade attention this offseason. Rengifo’s injury could make it difficult to find an appropriate return before he gets back on the field. Drury would be an obvious trade candidate if the Halos lose Ohtani and decide to use 2024 as a retooling season. The veteran popped 26 homers with a .262/.306/.497 slash in his first year in Orange County. Playing on an affordable $8.5MM salary, he’d be an appealing target for infield-needy teams in a winter without many free agent options.

That’s not the case for Rendon. The veteran third baseman has played in fewer than 60 games in all three full seasons since signing a $245MM free agent deal. He has played at a league average level in that time, nowhere close to the production the Angels envisioned. Rendon didn’t play after July 4 with a left leg injury that the Halos announced as a shin contusion. Rendon told reporters last month it was a tibia fracture. Both the organization and the player had been bizarrely reluctant to provide meaningful updates throughout the season.

There’s no indication that Rendon will not be ready for the start of 2024. He’ll surely remain on the roster, as his $38MM annual salaries through ’26 makes a trade essentially impossible. If he’s healthy, he’ll presumably be the starting third baseman. Few free agent deals go south as quickly as the Rendon investment has, leaving the Angels without many options but to hope for better entering year five.

Two outfield spots should be locked down. Trout is likely to be back in center field. Opposing fanbases have long speculated about the possibility of prying the 11-time All-Star away in trade. The Angels probably wouldn’t be able to shed the entire seven years and $248.15MM on his deal, but a high-payroll team like the Yankees or Phillies would presumably be willing to assume the majority of the money. Yet there are likely too many roadblocks to a trade.

Clearly, the Angels wouldn’t contemplate moving Trout while they’re still making an effort to bring back Ohtani. Re-signing Ohtani would take that firmly off the table. If the two-way star walks, Moreno would need to be willing to part with both faces of the franchise in the same offseason. For an owner who intervened to kill trade discussions regarding Ohtani when the Halos were firmly out of contention at the 2022 deadline, that seems unlikely. Even if the Angels were willing to move Trout, he’d have control over his destination thanks to full no-trade rights. Trout doesn’t seem urgent to force his way out of Anaheim, telling reporters last month that his offseason focus is on “clearing my mind and getting ready for spring and wearing an Angels uniform in spring.”

Assuming Trout is back in center field, he’d likely be flanked by Taylor Ward. The left fielder’s season was cut short when he was hit in the face with a pitch in late July. He should be back by Spring Training. Ward is a solid regular who still has three seasons of arbitration control. As with Rengifo, there’d be interest if the Halos wanted to shop him. They’re in no urgency to do so, though, and the season-ending injury makes it tough to get adequate value before Ward demonstrates that he has gotten past that frightening situation mentally.

Even if they retool, the Angels could look for a veteran corner outfielder opposite Ward. Former top prospect Jo Adell has never taken the anticipated step forward. He’ll be out of minor league options and looks like a candidate for a change-of-scenery trade, albeit for a minimal return. Mickey Moniak faded after a strong start in Trout’s stead and is probably best suited for fourth outfield work. Randal Grichuk is a free agent, while Brett Phillips will likely be non-tendered.

Adam Duvall, Brian Anderson, Joey Gallo and Jason Heyward are among the free agent corner outfielders who’ll sign for one or two years. Alex Verdugo and Mike Yastrzemski are potential trade candidates. The Angels only make sense as a suitor for a trade possibility if they’re again trying to patch things together with short-term veterans.

They’ll also have to add on the pitching staff. The Angels have run with a six-man rotation in recent seasons to manage Ohtani’s workload. General manager Perry Minasian recently acknowledged they could move to a five-man staff next season (link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). That’s true regardless of whether they retain Ohtani since he can’t pitch next year.

Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Griffin Canning have three spots reasonably well secured. The Halos would surely like to offload the two years and $26MM remaining on Anderson’s contract after he struggled to a 5.43 ERA in the first season. They unsuccessfully tried to offload the money via waivers in August. They’d presumably have to kick in cash to facilitate some kind of trade this offseason.

Whether Anderson returns, there’s room for another starter. Reuniting with Michael Lorenzen or taking a rebound flier on Frankie Montas, Luis Severino or Lance Lynn could be viable. That’d leave Anderson (if not traded) competing with the likes of Chase Silseth and potentially José Suarez for a rotation spot.

The Halos also have opportunity to add a couple relief fliers. They’re likely to opt for a $2MM buyout on Aaron Loup. They waived impending free agent Matt Moore and cut Chris Devenski in August. Hard-throwing Ben Joyce and José Soriano and right-hander Andrew Wantz presently project as the top setup options to Estévez, who’s headed into the second season of a two-year free agent deal. The hard-throwing closer would surely draw interest if the Halos were to make him available this winter. Bringing in at least one left-hander seems inevitable. Andrew Chafin, Wandy Peralta and Scott Alexander are among the possibilities.

It’s shaping up to be a difficult offseason. Minasian heads into his fourth year at the helm facing the long-feared potential Ohtani departure. If it happens, an already middling team will have lost its best player. If he stays, they’ll have a more uphill battle than ever in putting a viable roster around him.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Angels-centric chat on 10-10-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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