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2023-24 MLB Free Agents

Five Non-Tendered Starters To Keep An Eye On This Offseason

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees club’s allow players under team control to head for the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. The 2023 campaign saw the likes of Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario go on to have strong seasons after being non-tendered the offseason prior, and yesterday we discussed five hitters who were let go by their team’s prior to last week’s non-tender deadline.

While the best pieces among last offseason’s crop of non-tenders were both position players, recent history has offered a handful of arms who went on to provide significant value to teams after being non-tendered earlier in their career, with Kevin Gausman and Taijuan Walker standing as two of the more recent examples. The pair eventually went on to sign multi-year pacts worth $110MM and $72MM, respectively, though it’s anyone’s guess if any of members of this year’s group of non-tendered hurlers will manage to reach those same heights.

This year’s crop of arms won’t benefit from an otherwise weak free agent class the way this year’s hitters will, as the class of free agent starters is deep in potential options, ranging from top-of-the-line aces like Yoshinobu Yamamoto to interesting bounceback candidates like Jack Flaherty and Frankie Montas. Even so, clubs can never have enough starting pitching depth, and each of these arms could at least in theory provide a club with valuable innings in the future if given the chance to do so. Without further ado, let’s take a look at five starters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.

Kolby Allard (26)

Not too long ago, Allard was among the game’s most highly-touted prospects. After being selected fourteenth overall by the Braves in the 2015 draft, Allard was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport by the time he reached Double-A in 2017. After cruising through that campaign with a 3.18 ERA across 150 innings of work at just 19 years old, Allard got his first taste of big league action with Atlanta in 2018, though his stint in the majors lasted just eight innings. After being traded to the Rangers in 2019, Allard spent parts of three seasons swinging in and out of the Rangers rotation, with a 5.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 203 2/3 innings of work.

A failed stint in the bullpen in 2022 led the Rangers to deal Allard back to the Braves in exchange for Jake Odorizzi. Allard missed nearly the entire 2023 campaign with oblique and shoulder issues, leading the Braves to non-tender the lefty. While Allard has struggled to establish himself at the big league level, he’ll pitch next season at just 26 years old and advanced metrics such as xFIP (4.57) and SIERA (4.31) have seen his performance as roughly league average since the start of the 2021 campaign, lending credence to the hope that the lefty could still prove to be a solid back-end starter one day.

Yonny Chirinos (30)

Chirinos began his big league career back in 2018 as a member of the Rays, and was a quality arm for the club in a variety of roles from 2018-20. In those three seasons, the right-hander posted a 3.65 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP while appearing in 47 games (28 starts) and pitching a total of 234 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, Chirinos underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2020 and didn’t return to the mound until late in the 2022 campaign.

Chirinos struggled in his first full season back from surgery in 2023. Though he posted a decent 4.02 ERA in 62 2/3 innings of work as a swingman for the Rays, his peripherals (including a 5.49 FIP and an 11.8% strikeout rate) indicated his performance had slipped considerably. That led Tampa to part ways with Chirinos, who was ultimately claimed off waivers by the Braves. Chirinos’s results took a turn for the worse in Atlanta, as he was blown up for a 9.27 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work before being placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation. While Chirinos struggled through his first full season back from Tommy John this year, it’s easy to see the right-hander becoming a valuable, versatile depth piece for a contending club again in 2024 if he manages to get healthy.

Dakota Hudson (29)

A first-round selection by the Cardinals in the 2016 draft, Hudson was a quick riser who made his big league debut with the club back in 2018. The groundballer significantly outperformed his peripheral stats early in his career to perform at a mid-rotation level for the Cardinals, with a sterling 3.17 ERA in 241 innings of work 2018-20 despite a 4.74 FIP. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery cost Hudson almost all of the 2021 season, and upon returning to the Cardinals’ rotation in 2022 his results diminished significantly. In 221 frames since the start of the 2022 campaign, Hudson has posted a 4.64 ERA (88 ERA+) and nearly matching 4.60 FIP as his strikeout rate has dipped to just 13% against a 10% walk rate. That led the Cardinals to non-tender Hudson even in spite of their extreme need for rotation depth headed into 2024.

Brutal as the past two seasons have been for Hudson, it’s worth noting that he still generates grounders at a elite clip; among pitchers with at least 200 innings of work over the past two years, Hudson’s 52.5% groundball rate ranks ninth, sandwiched between Sandy Alcantara and Ranger Suarez. Though the Cardinals were unable to trade Hudson before last week’s non-tender deadline, it’s certainly feasible that a team in need of starting depth could look to take a flier on Hudson’s groundball abilities in hopes they can return him to the form he flashed earlier in his career.

Spencer Turnbull (31)

After being drafted by the Tigers in the second round of the 2014 draft, Turnbull eventually reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee in 2018 before receiving a regular spot in the club’s starting rotation during the 2019 campaign. That rookie campaign saw Turnbull post a 4.61 ERA that was slightly better than league average (103 ERA+) in 148 1/3 innings of work, though his 3.99 FIP hinted at another gear to his performance. After taking a small step forward during the shortened 2020 season (3.97 ERA, 3.49 FIP in 11 starts), Turnbull appeared to put it all together in the 2021 campaign with a 2.88 ERA and 2.97 FIP before his season was cut short after just nine starts by Tommy John surgery.

Turnbull returned in early 2023 and appeared poised to step back into the club’s rotation, but a mix of injuries, under-performance, and a dispute between Turnbull and Detroit brass over service time led to the sides parting ways this offseason with Turnbull having posted a 7.26 ERA over seven starts at the big league level. Despite those brutal numbers, Turnbull is nonetheless among the more interesting bounceback candidates on the open market this offseason given his recent health struggles and the incredible upside he flashed during the 2021 campaign.

Brandon Woodruff (31)

This list wouldn’t be complete without a mention of Woodruff, who has emerged as one of the game’s best starters in recent years. Since his first season as a regular member of the Brewers’ rotation in 2019, Woodruff has dominated to the tune of a 2.93 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 103 starts while collecting two All Star appearances and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting back in 2021. Woodruff was dominant as ever in 2023, with a 2.28 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate this season. Unfortunately, he was dogged by injuries throughout the season and limited to just eleven starts before undergoing shoulder surgery last month.

Unlike the other arms on this list, there are zero questions about Woodruff’s ability, as he’s a consensus front-of-the-rotation arm in terms of pure talent. Despite that, the Brewers made the difficult decision to non-tender him last week due to questions surrounding his availability for the 2024 campaign. It’s unclear if Woodruff will be able to return to the mound at all in 2024 following his surgery, though the right-hander expressed optimism earlier this offseason that he would be able to pitch again sometime next summer. Still, that uncertainty led the Brewers to part ways with the right-hander rather than tender him a contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected to be worth $11.6MM, a hefty sum for a small-market club to commit to a pitcher who might not be available next season. Though Woodruff’s timetable for return is uncertain, he has the potential to be among the most impactful pitchers in the entire free agent class based on his track record over the past several seasons. That combination of risk and tantalizing upside leave Woodruff as one of the most interesting free agents not only on this list but in the offseason’s entire class.

Five Non-Tendered Bats To Keep An Eye On This Offseason

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees club’s allow players under team control to head for the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Last offseason saw one of the most notable non-tenders in recent memory as the Dodgers made the decision to part ways with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger, of course, went on to sign with the Cubs and post a resurgent season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs en route to a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting. Bellinger’s strong season earned him the #2 spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we projected him for a twelve-year, $264MM deal.

A player of Bellinger’s caliber- a two-time All Star with MVP and Rookie of the Year awards under his belt- being non-tendered is exceptionally rare, and there’s little reason to believe that any of this offseason’s non-tendered players will reach those sort of heights in 2024. That being said, plenty of players wind up non-tendered and go on to have strong careers afterwards: Kyle Schwarber, Jeimer Candelario, Kevin Gausman, and Matt Strahm are among the players in recent memory who have gone on to find success as big league regulars following a non-tender.

With an unusually weak class of free agent hitters on tap for this offseason, teams figure to be more incentivized than ever to uncover a diamond in the rough in search of offensive upgrades this winter. Let’s take a look at five hitters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.

Mike Ford (31)

Ford made his MLB debut with the Yankees in 2019. He hit exceptionally well in a part-time role, slashing .259/.350/.559 (134 wRC+) with 12 homers in just 163 trips to the plate. Despite that strong performance, Ford would not clear 100 plate appearances in a season again until 2022, when he struggled through 50 games at the big league level while bouncing between the Braves, Angels, Mariners, and Giants. In 149 trips to the plate between the aforementioned four clubs, Ford hit a paltry .206/.302/.313 (81 wRC+). He received another big league opportunity in Seattle this season, however, and managed to make the most of it with a solid rebound campaign.

Upon being called up in early June, Ford played on a semi-regular basis with a solid .228/.323/.475 slash line with 16 home runs in 251 trips to the plate. Overall, that performance was good for a well above-average wRC+ of 123. Despite his successful season, the Mariners non-tendered Ford rather than offer him an arbitration-level contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected would be worth $1.5MM. Still, Ford figures to be a cheap source of optionable left-handed power for a club with an opening at either first base or DH, and could prove to be a solid pickup for teams looking to boost their offense in 2024 who can afford to offer him at-bats.

Kyle Lewis (28)

After being selected eleventh-overall by the Mariners in the 2016 draft, Lewis began his big league career with a bang by slashing .268/.293/.592 with six home runs during an 18-game cup of coffee towards the end of the 2019 season. The strong initial performance earned Lewis an everyday role in center field during the shortened 2020 season. It was an opportunity Lewis made the most of as he slashed .262/.364/.437 (127 wRC+) while playing quality defense in center en route to an AL Rookie of the Year award.

Unfortunately, since have gone off the rails for Lewis since then. Knee injuries, a concussion, and illness have sidelined him much of the time since then, and he’s hit a paltry .203/.281/.342 in 70 MLB games when he has been able to take the field. That being said, Lewis hit exceptionally well at the Triple-A level for the Diamondbacks this year, with a .371/.457/.641 slash line in 293 trips to the plate. That performance wasn’t enough to convince Arizona to spend a projected $1.61MM on Lewis’s services in arbitration this year, but it’s certainly possible it signals that Lewis could return to being an above-average regular in the big leagues if he can stay healthy long enough to find an extended opportunity.

Nick Senzel (29)

Senzel was the second overall pick in the 2016 draft and made his big league debut with the Reds back in 2019. He performed acceptably in his rookie season, adjusting on the fly to become the club’s regular center fielder after spending his entire professional career prior to 2019 on the infield dirt. Still, his bat left something to be desired as he slashed just .256/.315/.427, good for a wRC+ of 87. Senzel struggled to stay healthy following the 2019 campaign, however, appearing in just 59 games over the next two seasons. He returned to semi-regular playing time in 2021, but struggled badly at the plate with a weak slash line of just .231/.296/.306 in 420 trips to the plate.

Though his offense improved slightly in 2023 as he slashed .236/.297/.399 with 13 home runs in 330 plate appearances as he split time between second base, third base, and all three outfield spots, that performance did not convince the Reds to tender him a contract worth a projected $3MM this offseason. Senzel’s non-tender was hardly a surprise given Cincinnati’s excess of positional talent and his recent struggles. That said, it’s easy to see Senzel being a valuable piece of a club’s bench mix in 2024 given his versatility and career .287/.334/.460 slash line against southpaws and it’s certainly feasible a player of his prospect pedigree could take a step forward if allotted regular playing time.

Jacob Stallings (34)

By far the oldest player on this list, Stallings is a veteran of eight MLB seasons and first joined the Pirates organization as a seventh-round pick all the way back in 2012. After struggling to catch on in a regular role early in his career, Stallings became the regular catcher in Pittsburgh during the 2019 season and spent the next three years as a quality regular behind the plate, slashing a decent .251/.331/.374 (89 wRC+) while playing excellent defense behind the plate that earned him a Gold Glove award in 2021. Unfortunately, Stallings’s career took a turn for the worse upon being traded to Miami. Over the past two seasons, he’s slashed just .210/.287/.290 in 203 games as his defensive metrics have collapsed behind the plate. Those struggles made it an easy decision for the Marlins to non-tender Stallings rather than offer him a contract that projected to be worth $3.6MM for the 2024 season.

Stallings is perhaps the least likely on this list to be a productive regular in 2024. After all, he’s been well below average on both sides of the ball the past two seasons and is entering his mid-thirties. That being said, He’s just two seasons removed from a 2.5 fWAR campaign that saw him post slightly better offensive numbers than the average catcher while being among the strongest defenders behind the plate in the league. Given the constant need for catching depth around the game, it seems likely Stallings will be afforded plenty of opportunity to recapture his old form as a solid two-way catcher, and he’d only need to find success at one or the other to be a solid backup option.

Juan Yepez (26)

Perhaps the most unusual entrant on this list, Yepez was non-tendered by the Cardinals last week despite not yet being eligible for arbitration. Yepez made his big league debut as a 24-year-old during the 2022 season, and made a solid impression during his rookie campaign. Though he was blocked at his native position of first base by Paul Goldschmidt, Yepez split time between DH and all four corner spots while slashing a solid .253/.296/.447 with 12 home runs in 274 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Yepez struggled badly in his sophomore season, slashing just .183/.246/.300 in his 65 trips to the plate in the majors this year. His time in Triple-A didn’t go much better, as he posted a mediocre slash line of .255/.323/.414 in 86 games at the level.

While that down season led the Cardinals to part ways with Yepez to clear room on the 40-man roster, it’s worth noting that Yepez was blocked by an already-crowded Cardinals outfield mix at the big league level. Given his limited opportunities at the big league level to this point in his career, his relative youth, and a career .273/.349/.515 slash line at the Triple-A level, it’s easy to see how Yepez could be the latest late-career breakout candidate to emerge from St. Louis, not unlike Adolis Garcia, Luke Voit, and Patrick Wisdom before him.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

NPB’s Orix Buffaloes Approve Posting Of Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Shortly after losing Game 7 of the Japan Series to the Hanshin Tigers, the Orix Buffaloes announced this morning that they have approved the posting of ace right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to MLB. As noted by MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the next step in the process is the formal declaration of a posting window, which will last 45 days upon being announced. Morosi suggests that the announcement could occur in the coming days. Yamamoto has long been expected to enter MLB free agency via the posting system this offseason, though today’s news marks the first official confirmation from the Buffaloes that Yamamoto will be posted.

Yamamoto, 25, has established himself as the clear best pitcher in Japan in recent years. Since making his NPB debut as an 18-year-old in 2017, Yamamoto has posted a career ERA of just 1.72 with a 26.4% strikeout rate. Incredible as those career numbers are, Yamamoto has been even more impressive over the last three seasons: from 2021-23, Yamamoto has posted an eye-popping 1.42 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.1% across 557 2/3 innings of work. His most recent performance saw him record 14 strikeouts while allowing one run on nine hits and zero walks in a complete game for the Buffaloes in Game 6 of the Japan Series.

Scouts have widely regarded Yamamoto as a starter with top-of-the-rotation potential in MLB. Prior to the 2023 season, scouts suggested to Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Yamamoto could be considered a “full grade” ahead of right-hander Kodai Senga, who landed with the Mets on a five-year, $75MM pact last offseason in his first foray into stateside ball. Senga’s age-30 rookie season in MLB proved to be an excellent one, as he posted a 2.98 ERA and 3.63 FIP while striking out 202 batters in 166 1/3 innings of work. Needless to say, the idea of an ace nearly six years Senga’s junior widely regarded as the better pitcher of the two being available via free agency this offseason has to be nothing short of tantalizing for MLB clubs.

MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski took a look at Yamamoto in the latest installment of his NPB Players To Watch series back in September, shortly after Yamamoto threw the second no-hitter of his career in front of several MLB scouts. Yamamoto’s unusual youth for a free agent and incredible upside figure to make him one of the most coveted free agents of the 2023-24 offseason. In MLBTR’s most recent Free Agent Power Rankings back in August, we had Yamamoto as the third ranked free agent to be on the board, behind only Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger. The market for Yamamoto is expected to be among the most competitive of the offseason, with the Giants, Mets, and Cardinals among the reported suitors in addition to the Phillies, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, Tigers, and Diamondbacks, all of whom he’s been publicly connected to on some level or other throughout his final season before moving stateside.

Qualifying Offer To Be $20.325MM For 2023-24 Offseason

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The qualifying offer value is going to be $20.325MM for this offseason, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It had been previously reported that it would land “around” $20.5MM but it seems the final number will be a smidge lower.

The value of the QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league each year. As the season ends, a player reaching for free agency is eligible for a qualifying offer if they spent the entire season with just one team and have never received a QO before. If the player declines and signs elsewhere, the signing club is subject to draft pick forfeiture as well as a possible reduction of their international bonus pool. The player’s previous club receives draft pick compensation.

The value of the QO generally goes up as salaries rise. Here are the values of the past dozen QOs:

  • 2012-13: $13.3MM
  • 2013-14: $14.4MM
  • 2014-15: $15.3MM
  • 2015-16: $15.8MM
  • 2016-17: $17.2MM
  • 2017-18: $17.4MM
  • 2018-19: $17.9MM
  • 2019-20: $17.8MM
  • 2020-21: $18.9MM
  • 2021-22: $18.4MM
  • 2022-23: $19.65MM
  • 2023-24: $20.325MM

14 players received qualifying offers last offseason. Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez accepted. The other 12 players declined, though Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Nimmo subsequently ended up re-signing with their previous team.

MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players that could potentially receive QOs this year, though it has since been reported that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is not eligible to receive one. Clubs have until 4:00 pm Central on November 6 to decide whether or not to extend the QO to eligible players. Players who receive the QO will have until 3:00 pm Central on November 14 to decide whether or not to accept.

The 2023-24 Offseason Begins

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The 2023 Major League Baseball season concluded last night when the Rangers defeated the Diamondbacks. As Texas celebrates, the baseball world will now go into offseason mode. Free agency begins today for all players that qualify, though there is a five-day period where they cannot sign with a new club. They are eligible to sign with their previous club, however, such as Joe Jiménez signing with Atlanta earlier today.

We at MLB Trade Rumors have been getting prepared in recent weeks, publishing our annual arbitration projections from Matt Swartz in early October. We’ve also previewed the upcoming free agent class one position at a time and taken a team-by-team look at the winter ahead in our Offseason Outlook series. We’ve also looked at some non-tender candidates and potential qualifying offer recipients.

Here are the key dates to keep in mind for the winter ahead…

NOVEMBER 2: Free agency begins for eligible players. This means they are removed from the roster of the club they finished 2023 with. As mentioned up top, they are able to re-sign with that club but can’t sign with a new team for five days. Trades of players on the 40-man roster are now permitted again for the first time since the trade deadline.

NOVEMBER 5: Gold Glove winners announced.

NOVEMBER 6: After the five-day waiting period, free agents will be eligible to sign with any club. This is also the deadline for decisions on club options, player options, opt-outs and mutual options. It is also the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players, with that deadline at 4:00 pm Central specifically.

NOVEMBER 7-9: General managers meeting in Scottsdale, Arizona.

NOVEMBER 13-16: BBWAA Awards week. The Rookie of the Year winners will be announced on the first date of this stretch, followed by Manager of the Year winners, Cy Young Award winners and Most Valuable Player winners. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the results of the voting can potentially impact the service time of a young player or award draft picks to certain teams.

NOVEMBER 14: Players who received a qualifying offer have until this date at 3:00 pm Central to assess the market before deciding whether or not to accept it. The QO changes annually since it is an average of the top 125 contracts in the league. This year’s QO is expected to land around $20.5MM. A player is only eligible to receive a QO if they spent the entire 2023 season with just one club and have not received one before. Teams that sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer will be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a loss of international bonus pool money, while the player’s previous club receives draft pick compensation.

NOVEMBER 14: Rule 5 protection deadline. Teams have until this date to add players to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

NOVEMBER 14-16: Owners meetings in Arlington, Texas. The owners are set to vote on the Athletics’ planned move from Oakland to Las Vegas at this year’s meetings.

NOVEMBER 17: The non-tender deadline. By this date, teams have to decide whether or not to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players. They don’t have to agree to a salary, merely whether to keep the player on the roster or not. Players that are non-tendered become free agents without being exposed to waivers.

DECEMBER 3-6: Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee. This is often a key period in the offseason, with many marquee free agent signings and notable trades happening in or around the meetings.

DECEMBER 5: Amateur draft lottery. To discourage tanking, the new CBA introduced a lottery system to determine the order of the amateur draft. Last year, the first lottery resulted in the Pirates securing the first overall pick, which they later used on right-hander Paul Skenes in July.

DECEMBER 6: The Rule 5 draft. Teams with open 40-man roster spots are able to select eligible players from other clubs. A selected player cannot be optioned to the minors by the new club and needs to stay on the roster all year long or else be offered back to the original club.

DECEMBER 15: International signing period closes.

JANUARY 12: Deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures for 2024. Arbitration hearings will begin to take place at the end of January, though teams and players can agree to a salary at any point before a hearing takes place. However, many teams adopt the “file and trial” tactic, meaning that they’ll automatically opt to go to a hearing with any player who doesn’t agree to a salary by this date, with no further discussion about an arbitration-avoiding deal.

JANUARY 15: New international signing period opens. Most of the top international prospects will sign right away, often having made handshake deals years prior.

FEBRUARY 13: Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players.

FEBRUARY 18: Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for other players.

MARCH 20-21: Dodgers and Padres begin regular season with two games in Seoul, South Korea.

MARCH 28: Opening Day for all other teams. Active rosters reduced to 26 players.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2023 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is reportedly worth around $20.5MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2024 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks (the Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded).

The Mariners, Orioles, Rays, and Reds stand out as at least somewhat realistic candidates to sign a QO-rejecting free agent this winter.  Seattle is expected to make some level of pursuit of the biggest free agent of all in Shohei Ohtani, while the Orioles and Reds might feel the time is right to augment their young core with a bigger name, likely a pitcher.  Tampa Bay might be willing to stretch its usual payroll standards a bit this winter, though it remains to be seen if the Rays would splurge on a major free agent.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2023 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

Many of these clubs could be prominent players in free agency, perhaps further emboldened by their relatively lesser draft penalty.  St. Louis is aiming to acquire at least three starting pitchers, the Giants are hoping to finally land a big name after their failed pursuits of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter, the Cubs could be looking to make a big splash to replace Cody Bellinger (if Bellinger can’t be re-signed at all), and the Red Sox might be looking to return to contention in a big way once their new front office leader is hired.

The Team In Limbo: Angels

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Angels have exceeded the $233MM CBT threshold.  While this most specifically relates to the compensation Los Angeles may receive if Ohtani signs elsewhere, it also impacts what the Halos would have to give up if they wanted to add another qualified free agent.

If the Angels ducked under the CBT line, they’ll be in the previous group.  But, if the league’s calculations determine that the Angels were in excess of the tax threshold, they’ll be included with the other…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties.  For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft.

Ohtani’s name looms large in this category, as several of these clubs might not proceed with major offseason business until they know one way or the other if they can land the two-way superstar.  Conversely, a team that isn’t willing to give out the record-setting contract it will likely take to land Ohtani could instead more aggressively pursue some relatively less expensive qualified free agents, looking to land a player while some other suitors are occupied.  Of course, the higher penalty could also mean that some tax-payor teams instead look for upgrades on the trade market, or at some free agents (i.e. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Jeimer Candelario, Eduardo Rodriguez) who aren’t eligible for the qualifying offer.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick.  For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool.  The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Receive For Losing A Qualified Free Agent

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The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter reportedly worth around $20.5MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2023 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the QO and forego free agency altogether.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of the draft.  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.  In the 2023 draft, these compensation picks were the 68th, 69th, and 70th overall selections.

Of the pending free agents on these teams’ rosters, the Twins’ Sonny Gray is the most clear-cut candidate to receive a qualifying offer.  Jorge Soler is expected to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Marlins, and Miami is likely to issue him a qualifying offer if Soler does indeed hit the open market again.  The Mariners’ Teoscar Hernandez is also a good QO candidate, even though the outfielder is coming off a relative down year and might conceivably choose to just take the $20.5MM payday in the hopes of a producing a better platform season in advance of the 2024-25 free agent class.  On the other hand, since this offseason’s market is thin on position players, Hernandez and his representatives might feel this is the better time to reject a QO and pursue a lucrative multi-year deal.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox

For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).  Cody Bellinger is a lock to receive and reject the Cubs’ qualifying offer, as the outfielder/first baseman will be looking to cash in after his big bounce-back season in 2023.  Aside from Bellinger, none of the other pending free agents for these teams look like plausible QO candidates.

The Team In Limbo: Angels

It should be noted that these lists of teams and their CBT status won’t be officially finalized until December.  Usually, it isn’t difficult to figure out which teams surpass the $233MM tax threshold, and sites like Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do excellent work in calculating luxury tax estimates over the course of a season.  However, this winter w have a relatively rare case of a team whose status won’t be known until December, as the Angels are by all accounts right on the borderline of the $233MM figure.

The Angels’ waiver wire purge in late August moved some salary off the books, but according to some reports at the start of September, the Halos remained slightly over the $233MM mark.  Cot’s has the Angels just over the line at an estimated $236MM CBT number, while Roster Resource’s projection has the Angels avoiding a tax penalty with a $228.7MM CBT number.

Given how the Angels have the offseason’s most prominent free agent in Shohei Ohtani, it is no small matter for the club to know exactly what draft compensation they might receive should Ohtani (after obviously rejecting the QO) depart for another team.  While Ohtani re-signing in Anaheim is the best-case scenario, the next best option would be a compensatory pick in the 68-70 range for the Angels in next year’s draft…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees

…and the least palatable option would be the lesser compensation should the Angels indeed end up over the CBT line.  If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.  In the 2023 draft, these picks fell between 132nd and 137th overall.

Regardless of the Angels’ status, 2023 still set a new record for highest number of teams in excess of the luxury tax threshold — the previous mark was six teams, in both 2022 and 2016.  Of the 8-9 clubs surpassing the CBT this season, three (the Mets, Yankees, and Padres) also surpassed the $273MM threshold, which means that they’ll face the further penalty of having their first-round pick dropped back by ten slots in the 2024 draft.

Several prominent free agents from the CBT payors are either locks or strong candidates to receive qualifying offers, including the Padres’ Blake Snell and Josh Hader, the Phillies’ Aaron Nola, and the Blue Jays’ Matt Chapman.  The Dodgers’ J.D. Martinez is a QO candidate on paper, but with Los Angeles heavily rumored to be making a run at Ohtani, the Dodgers might pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out of a concern that he might accept, thus tying up the team’s designated hitter spot.

Yuki Matsui To Explore Signing With MLB Teams

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Star closer Yuki Matsui looks to be interested in a potential move to Major League Baseball, as a Yahoo Japan report (Japanese language link) indicates that Matsui has exercised his international free agent rights, as well as his rights to freely negotiate with other Nippon Professional Baseball clubs.

Matsui doesn’t turn 28 until later this month, but he has already accumulated 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.  As a result, the left-hander is a full free agent, and can be signed by MLB teams without an additional posting fee to the Eagles.  His age and experience also make him exempt from MLB’s international bonus pool structure.

It isn’t necessarily a sure thing that Matsui is headed to North America, as the Eagles are reportedly set to offer him a four-year contract worth $1.6 billion yen (roughly $10.7MM in USD) to remain in the fold.  However, Matsui has hired WME’s Bryan Minniti as an agent, which could hint that the southpaw is more interested in seeing what Major League teams have to offer.  Minniti has recently moved into the representation arena after a long front office career that included stints as an assistant GM with the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.

At least nine Major League clubs have already scouted Matsui, including the Padres, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees.  It isn’t surprising that there is significant interest in a pitcher who is hitting the market at such a relatively young age, and who has already amassed such an impressive resume in Nippon Professional Baseball and on the international stage.  Matsui was a member of Japan’s championship team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, though he only made one appearance during the tournament, throwing a scoreless inning.

Over 501 career games with the Eagles, Matsui has a 2.40 ERA and 236 saves, and the five-time NPB All-Star is the youngest player in league history to reach the 200-save threshold.  He has worked out of the bullpen for almost his entire career, except for his 2014 rookie season and during a brief return to rotation work during the pandemic-affected 2020 NPB season.  Matsui’s usage has also been somewhat impacted by the Eagles’ struggles, as the team has mostly posted mostly losing records during the southpaw’s tenure.  With a 10.9% walk rate over his career in Japan, control has occasionally been an issue for Matsui, though his 31.85% strikeout rate indicates that his ability to miss bats isn’t in question.

Readers of MLBTR’s NPB Players To Watch feature are quite familiar with Matsui’s name, as Dai Takegami Podziewski had frequently highlighted the closer throughout the 2023 season.  Matsui had a dominant 1.57 ERA over 57 1/3 innings for the Eagles this season, and Dai noted that Matsui made the splitter a much heavier part of his pitching arsenal, perhaps as a bit of a showcase for MLB evaluators.

However, Matsui’s small role in the WBC could have been due to reported difficulty he had throwing the WBC ball, which was larger than the standard ball used in NPB play and closer to the type of baseball used in the majors.  More broadly, Matsui has a relatively small frame (5’8″ and 167 pounds), so scouts may have concerns over how he might hold up over the long term, even if he has been pretty durable during his time with the Eagles.

This winter’s market for left-handed relievers has some interesting names, headlined by ace closer Josh Hader.  Matsui immediately becomes an intriguing new name in this group, as at least a candidate for high-leverage innings if perhaps not strictly a saves specialist.

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