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2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

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We’re now about three quarters of the way through the regular season, and the free-agent landscape has changed considerably since our last power rankings back in June. With the trade market passed, we now know who will and won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer at season’s end. (Traded players cannot receive a QO.) Max Scherzer needn’t be listed at the back of the list or among the honorable mentions now that he’s agreed to pick up next year’s player option as part of the condition of his trade to Texas. Injuries, performance trends — both good and bad — and many other factors all contribute to shifts in market expectation.

As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Age, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.

Our Power Rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

*=Player option/opt-out opportunity
**=Currently playing in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Angels
Eligible for qualifying offer

The baseball world is still reeling from this week’s news that Ohtani has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament for the second time in his career. He won’t pitch again this season, and surgery — be it Tommy John or an internal brace — is firmly on the table. For now, he’ll continue to serve as the Angels’ DH as he and the team receive outside opinions on his damaged ligament.

There’s no way around the fact that Ohtani’s injury represents a massive blow to his earning power — but perhaps not to the extent that many fans would think. Ohtani is still the best player on the planet, doing things that we simply haven’t seen in our lifetimes — arguably ever before. The 29-year-old’s .304/.409/.659 batting line puts him 80% ahead of the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, and prior to his injury, he’d run up 132 innings of 3.14 ERA ball.

Ohtani ranks seventh in the Majors in batting average, second in on-base percentage, first in slugging percentage (by more than 60 points), tenth in ERA and third in strikeout percentage (as a pitcher). We’ve grown almost accustomed to this level of excellence, but the manner in which he permeates both the offensive and pitching leaderboards in Major League Baseball is nothing short of prodigious.

Certainly, it’s an open question as to whether Ohtani will pitch at all next year. By the time he’s reached free agency, we’ll likely know the answer to that question. Depending on whether he needs surgery — and, if so, which surgery he requires — it’s possible he’ll miss the beginning of the 2024 season. Bryce Harper had offseason Tommy John surgery this past year and returned to the Phillies on May 2. Ohtani himself had his first Tommy John surgery in October 2018 and was back on the field as a designated hitter on May 7 the following year.

Even if Ohtani is ruled out from pitching next year, any team signing him would be paying for one of the game’s best hitters — and for a potential return to the mound in 2025. It’s fair to wonder just how long Ohtani can continue pitching and hitting simultaneously and do so at elite levels, but he’s spent the past three years proving those who doubted his preternatural talents wrong. The ultra-competitive Ohtani will surely try to do so again; there’s little reason to think he’d move on from pitching due to a second surgery. What shape that eventually takes — limiting him to five innings most starts, affording him extra rest throughout the season, moving him to the bullpen, etc. — will likely depend on the team with which he eventually signs.

Regardless of Ohtani’s future on the mound, he’ll probably still set the record for largest free agent contract ever. That may sound outlandish to some at first glance, but consider the fact that Ohtani will reach the market two years younger than Aaron Judge was when he scored a $360MM guarantee. Judge landed that record sum as a 31-year-old who ostensibly only had three competitive bidders: the incumbent Yankees, his hometown Giants, and the late-bidding Padres. Ohtani will draw interest from a larger number of teams. And, as marketable as Judge is, Ohtani is even more so. The additional revenues he’d generate from his global fan base can’t be overlooked.

Moreover, Ohtani only seems to be getting better at the plate. After striking out at 28.1% clip through his first four seasons, he dropped that number to 24.2% last year. The lowered strikeout rate also came with a dip in walk rate (down to 10.8%), but this year he’s maintained that improved strikeout rate while bumping his walk rate back to 14.2%. Ohtani is also just two home runs shy of his career-high and looks like a lock to reach 50 home runs. His .360 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is a career-high. Ohtani’s 94.9 mph average exit velocity trails only Judge, and his 118.3 mph maximum exit velo this season trails only Matt Olson. No player has hit a ball further than Ohtani’s MLB-best 493 feet, per Statcast.

Ohtani’s second UCL tear could shorten his 2024 season and might necessitate extra care for his arm when he returns to the mound — be that late in the 2024 season or early in the 2025 campaign. But he’s probably going to pitch again — he’ll certainly try to — and even if he doesn’t, he’s hitting the market as one of baseball’s premier offensive players in advance of his age-29 season. Plus, if Ohtani were to ever give up pitching, he wouldn’t be “just” a designated hitter, as many detractors have suggested. Ohtani is no stranger to the outfield, having played there during his NPB days. Statcast still credits him with 65th percentile sprint speed, and there’s no questioning his raw athleticism and arm strength. There’s little reason to think he couldn’t at least be a serviceable corner outfielder.

Age and elite offensive performance on their own still ought to push Ohtani past Judge this winter. The only question will be how far beyond Judge he can ultimately club. Securing the first $400MM free agent contract in history feels attainable even with the questions surrounding his arm. Time will tell if $500MM+ remains on the table.

2. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, Cubs
Eligible for qualifying offer

Bellinger jumps from unranked on our last list to the No. 2 spot in a matter of just two months. At the time of our June list, he’d just been reinstated from the injured list and was mired in what turned out to be a fleeting slump. We listed Bellinger as an honorable mention and considered him for a spot near the bottom of the list, but felt he needed to improve his stock a bit. He’s done that — and then some.

Not many one-year, make-good deals have gone as well as Bellinger’s remarkable bounceback season. Non-tendered by the Dodgers after shoulder surgery left him a shell of his former Rookie of the Year and MVP self from 2021-22, Bellinger now looks to be back in a big way. The 2019 Most Valuable Player is batting .320/.368/.552 with 20 home runs, 21 doubles, a triple and 17 steals in 20 tries. The most alarming element of his downturn in 2021-22 was a strikeout rate that ballooned to 27.1%, but Bellinger is now punching out at a career-low 15.5% rate.

Bellinger’s rebound isn’t without red flags, as I noted last week when profiling his season at greater length. He missed more than a month with a knee injury, and in more under-the-radar fashion, the quality of his contact is just nowhere near as good as it was at his peak. Bellinger is averaging 87.2 mph off the bat — four miles per hour slower than during his MVP season. A hefty 45.6% of his batted balls left the bat at 95 mph+ in 2019; he’s at 30.8% in 2023. He’ll also receive and reject a qualifying offer, though for free agents of this caliber, that’s rarely a significant deterrent.

The Cubs have played Bellinger both at first base and in center field this season, and he’ll draw interest from teams with visions of playing him at first base and across all three outfield spots. He drew plus ratings from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in his return to first base, and he’s been credited with +4 OAA in center field this year. Teams will see Bellinger as a versatile and above-average defender at multiple spots on the field.

The other factors to consider with Bellinger are age and market scarcity. He won’t turn 29 until July 13 of next season, meaning next year will technically be considered his age-28 season. (July 1 is the typical cutoff for such designations.) He’s considerably younger than the standard free agent, and he happens to hit the market in a year where there’s not only a lack of quality outfielders/first baseman — but a lack of quality bats overall.

Bellinger is at least two years younger than each of Kris Bryant ($182MM), Brandon Nimmo ($162MM) and George Springer ($150MM) were when they hit free agency. He’s having a better offensive platform year than any of that group at the plate. Bellinger and Scott Boras will likely be seeking $200MM+ in free agency this time around, and there’s a real chance he’ll get it.

3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes**
Ineligible for qualifying offer

At the time of our June list, Yamamoto was sitting on a 1.98 ERA in 68 1/3 frames, positioning him to potentially finish the season with his fourth sub-2.00 ERA in the past five years. Since that time, he’s allowed five total runs in 51 2/3 frames. His 0.87 ERA in that stretch has dropped his season mark to 1.50 over the life of 120 innings. He’s averaging seven innings per start in NPB this year.

If age was worth mentioning with regard to Bellinger, it’s worth focusing on in near-singular fashion with Yamamoto, who turned 25 just last week. Yamamoto is one of the most accomplished pitchers in NPB — widely regarded as the second-best league in the world — despite the fact that he’s around the same age as some of the yet-to-debut names that populate top prospect lists here in North America. He went straight from the NPB draft into the Buffaloes’ rotation, and while his 5.32 ERA as a rookie wasn’t exactly captivating, Yamamoto followed with a 2.10 ERA in 2019 and has been established as an ace-caliber pitcher ever since.

Most MLB free agents hit the market between 29 and 31 years of age. There are occasional 28-year-old free agents, and even more rarely we’ll see a 27-year-old or even 26-year-old, if said player reached the big leagues as some kind of youthful phenom. Yamamoto will be signing a contract beginning with his age-25 season — a virtually unprecedented age for a top-of-the-rotation arm to reach the market. A six-year deal for him would run through only his age-30 season — the same age at which many MLB free agents are just getting to market. It’s always hard to predict how the market might react to star players coming over from NPB or the Korea Baseball Organization, but Yamamoto’s blend of age and performance is basically unprecedented. It’s easy to envision him receiving offers of eight years — possibly even more — based on his youth. Presumably, Yamamoto’s camp could look to work some opt-out opportunities into any deal as well.

Yamamoto isn’t a true free agent; he’ll need to be posted by the Buffaloes, though it’s widely expected they’ll do just that. Any team that signs Yamamoto would owe his former club a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter (including options, incentives, awards bonuses, etc.). On a $200MM deal, for instance, the signing team would owe an additional $31.875MM release fee.

Predicting contracts for foreign stars is always something of a dice roll — far more than standard MLB free agents, where precedent is more abundant. Yamamoto lacks any true comparables in terms of market context seasons, but the demand for him should be fierce.

4. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers
Eligible for qualifying offer

To call the 2023 season an “uneven” one for Urias would be a bit of an understatement. The southpaw got out to a strong start through his first four turns on the mound, stumbled badly over his next five appearances, and hit the injured list with a hamstring strain. Urias was set to return after just a few weeks but suffered a setback and wound up missing nearly two months with the injury. Upon his return, he was rocked for five runs in three innings, sending his ERA ballooning to 4.94. He was dominant for his next two turns (one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio) … then blown up for eight runs in Baltimore.

The pendulum swung back in the other direction following that outing, and Urias is still on the upswing. In his past five starts, he’s posted a 2.03 ERA. Overall, Urias has a 4.15 ERA on the season and a 3.88 ERA since returning from the injured list. Much of the damage done against him this season has been confined to five brutal outings.

Urias isn’t a power arm. He’s averaging 92.9 mph on his fastball this season — a career-low, but barely down from the 93.1 mph he averaged in 2022 when he posted a 2.16 ERA in 175 frames. He’s never been a huge strikeout pitcher, and this year’s 24.1% rate is in line with his previous levels: solidly above average, but far from elite. However, he’s always boasted exceptional command, and his 4.9% walk rate in 2023 is the best of his career. His walk rate ranks 10th among the 93 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 innings this season and is only 0.1% behind the three pitchers ahead of him on the list (Joe Ryan, Miles Mikolas, Zack Wheeler).

Urias is a tough free agent to peg. From 2018-22, he logged a brilliant 2.61 ERA in 499 1/3 innings, but due largely to a .252 BABIP and 79.8% strand rate, fielding-independent metrics were far less bullish (3.42 FIP, 3.80 SIERA). And, because of early-career shoulder surgery, Urias’ workload was limited aggressively until the 2021 season. He’s only made 30 starts in a season twice (2021 and 2022), and he won’t reach that level in 2023. Urias was also arrested in May 2019 after video reportedly showed him shoving a female companion to the ground. Major League Baseball subsequently suspended him for 20 games under the joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Though it was several years ago, that still figures to weigh into the evaluation process for many teams.

The biggest factor Urias will have on his side in free agency will be age. Because he debuted as a 19-year-old, he’s reaching the open market at just 27 years of age. He won’t turn 28 until next August. Because of that youth, Urias could be in line for a lengthier contract than the standard pitcher, which is why he and Yamamoto stand as the top non-Ohtani pitchers on this ranking. Even an eight-year deal would only run through the left-hander’s age-34 season.

5. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays
Eligible for qualifying offer

Chapman’s first month of the 2023 season was something to behold. When I wrote about his brilliant start to the season in early May, the two-time Platinum Glove winner was raking at a .338/.425/.579 clip. He’d “only” homered five times in six weeks but was already up to 17 doubles. As noted at the time, he’d struck out at a considerably lower rate than past seasons in April but had begun to swing and miss more in May. “If Chapman can avoid allowing his recent uptick in whiffs to snowball, then a return to peak levels or even the establishment of a new peak output is firmly in play,” I wrote at the time.

Unfortunately — the whiffs indeed snowballed. Chapman fanned at just a 22.8% clip through the end of April, but he’s gone down on strikes in 29.5% of his plate appearances since that time. Since that look at Chapman’s sensational start to the season … he’s batted .212/.302/.373 (88 wRC+).

On the whole, Chapman’s season has still been productive. His .250/.339/.435 slash is 15% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. He’s ripped 15 home runs, 35 doubles and a triple in 507 plate appearances and drawn walks at a very strong 11% clip. More encouraging is the fact that when Chapman makes contact, he’s absolutely scorching the ball. This year’s 93.7 mph average exit velocity is in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. Only Aaron Judge and Matt Olson have put a higher percentage of their batted balls in play at 95 mph or more than Chapman’s outrageous 57.2%.

That batted-ball profile will undoubtedly intrigue many teams. Chapman will be viewed as something of an “upside” play with the bat, which is a strange way to characterize someone who we’re ranking fifth in earning power among this year’s free agents. That said, Chapman’s power, ability to draw walks and elite defense give him a high floor, and the elite level of his contact and his prior track record suggest something closer to an MVP-level ceiling. Defensive Runs Saved credits Chapman at +11 this year, while Outs Above Average is at +4. He’s never ranked as a negative in either category.

Both Trevor Story (six years, $140MM) and Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM) secured deals well north of $100MM due in large part to their strong gloves and offensive ceilings. Kris Bryant landed $182MM coming off a comparable (albeit better) offensive year — despite lacking anything close to Chapman’s defensive value. Story and Swanson got those contracts despite having turned down qualifying offers. Chapman will turn down a QO as well, and even with the way his bat has sputtered since the first month of the season, he’ll still have a case to end up somewhere in this general range.

6. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Rangers
Ineligible for qualifying offer

Few pitchers have elevated their stock more than Montgomery in recent seasons. The 30-year-old southpaw — 31 in December — missed most of the 2018-19 seasons due to Tommy John surgery and posted a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts during the shortened 2020 campaign. Montgomery’s strikeout, walk and grounder rates all remained sharp during that ugly season, though, creating some optimism that he could yet bounce back.

He’s done more than bounce back in the three years since. Montgomery reestablished himself as a viable big league starter in 2021, but he’s steadily elevated himself to No. 2-3 starter status — and he only seems to be getting better. Dating back to 2021, Montgomery has piled up 482 2/3 innings and recorded an impressive 3.49 ERA with a 22.8% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 45.5% grounder rate and just 1.01 HR/9. He spent two weeks on the Covid-related injured list in 2021 but has otherwise avoided the IL entirely since returning from Tommy John surgery.

The 2023 season, in particular, is shaping up to be the best of Montgomery’s career. He’s posted a minuscule 1.73 ERA in four starts since being traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers, dropping his season-long mark to a career-best 3.12. Montgomery’s 93.6 mph average fastball is the best of his career. He’s striking hitters out at only a league-average level but also limiting walks at a considerably better-than-average rate and inducing grounders at an above-average clip.

Montgomery may not stand out in any one way, but he boasts average or better skills across the board and has shaken off that early ligament replacement surgery to establish himself as a durable mid-rotation starter. His results, peripherals and general durability are all superior to those of Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM) last offseason. Because he was traded midseason, he can’t receive a qualifying offer.

Many will be tempted to lump Montgomery into the Walker/Taillon bucket, but he’s been the best pitcher of that trio and is heading into free agency on a high note. Taillon and Walker feel like more of a floor than anything else for Montgomery, who ought to be able to command a fifth guaranteed year. With a strong and healthy finish to the season, he could secure a nine-figure deal.

7. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies
Eligible for qualifying offer

Nola, who turned 30 this summer, has been a standard of durability for the past six years. He hasn’t gone on the injured list with a non-virus issue since 2017. No pitcher has started more games or logged more innings since the start of 2018. For the bulk of that time, he has paired that league-best durability with at least high-end #2 starter results.

The right-hander has six sub-4.00 ERA seasons under his belt, including a 3.25 mark over 205 innings a season ago. From a run prevention perspective, he’s struggling through a relative down year in 2023. Nola has allowed 4.49 earned runs per nine through 26 appearances. The longball has been the big culprit, as he has already surrendered a personal-high 29 homers in 160 1/3 innings (1.63 HR/9).

Nola has lost a few punchouts as well, although he’s still missing bats at an above-average rate. His 25.2% strikeout percentage is his lowest rate in six years but above the 22% league mark for starters. While his whiffs were way down early in the season, he has a characteristic 28.2% strikeout rate going back to the start of June. The homers have become even more of an issue as the summer has drawn on, but Nola’s strikeout and walk profile of the past three months has resembled that of his entire career.

A pitcher’s home run rate can vary season-to-season. Nola’s ground-ball percentages have nosedived over the past couple years, though. This looks as if it’ll be his second campaigns in the last three years with a middling ERA, as he posted a 4.63 mark in 2021. Nola’s ERA has been above estimators like FIP and SIERA for three years running. Will teams attribute that primarily to poor luck and the lackluster defenses the Phils have turn out behind him, or to something in Nola’s repertoire that makes him more hittable than his strikeout and walk profile would suggest?

The Phils and Nola had some extension conversations during the spring but didn’t appear to get close to a deal. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer. A five or six year deal topping nine figures should still be attainable, but it’d be easier to project Nola approaching or beating the $162MM which Carlos Rodon received last winter were it not for the home run concerns.

8. Lucas Giolito, SP, Angels
Ineligible for qualifying offer

Aside from the unique cases of Ohtani and Yamamoto, Giolito was the top pitcher in our late-June rankings. The right-hander was sitting on a 3.41 ERA at the time but has allowed a 5.92 mark in nine starts since that point. That’s primarily a reflection of two absolute clunkers — an eight-run drubbing by the Mets on July 18 and nine runs at the hands of the Braves during his first start as an Angel on August 2.

Largely because of those outings, Giolito’s season ERA has jumped to 4.32. Home runs have been an issue, particularly since he landed in Anaheim, but the rest of his profile is generally solid. Giolito hasn’t maintained the form he flashed from 2019-20, when he struck out a third of opponents in consecutive seasons with a sub-3.50 ERA. He now looks the part of a solid #3 starter, fanning a quarter of opponents against an 8.2% walk rate while averaging just under six innings per start.

His velocity is right in line with last year’s mark. His 12.2% swinging strike rate — while down from its 2019-21 peak — is a bit better than average. While Giolito’s small sample ERA with the Angels sits at 6.67, his repertoire, whiffs and control are all in line with his early-season work in Chicago. It’s likely teams will consider his tough first month in Orange County a blip and more or less continue to view him as an above-average, durable starting pitcher.

Giolito turned 29 last month. He’s a year younger than Nola, Snell and Montgomery but markedly older than Urias and Yamamoto. Since he was traded midseason, clubs wouldn’t have to forfeit a draft choice to sign him (as they would for Snell, Nola and Urias). While the past month has been a disaster for the Angels, Giolito’s free agent stock shouldn’t be much different than it was six weeks ago. Given his age, a six-year deal still seems plausible.

9. Blake Snell, SP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer

Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young winner, has become the veritable embodiment of the “mercurial” and “volatile” adjectives that are often used to describe pitchers. The 30-year-old looked lost early in the season, logging a 5.40 ERA and 13.4% walk rate in his first nine starts. Since then, he’s been perhaps the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Over his past 17 starts, Snell has pitched 97 innings with a 1.48 ERA.

One might be tempted to assume that Snell has corrected the command troubles that dragged him down early on — but that’s not the case. Snell has continued walking more than 13% of his opponents during this stretch, with the primary difference being a massive spike in strikeouts (from 23.8% up to 34.8%) and grounders (37% to 49.7%). Snell has scaled back the usage of his heater in that time, deferring to more changeups and curveballs. The formula has worked beautifully. Snell ranks seventh in the Majors in Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR (3.7) and trails only Arizona’s Zac Gallen with 4.8 RA9-WAR.

Ace-level results from Snell aren’t exactly anything new. Again, he’s a former Cy Young winner. However, Snell has struggled to stay healthy, and his penchant for deep counts and walking batters has frequently led to early exits from games. Snell has averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start in his big league career. That’s not exactly a reflection of the Rays’ affinity for quick hooks on their starting pitchers either; Snell’s 5.17 innings per start since his trade to the Padres is nearly identical to his 5.15 innings per start in Tampa Bay. Even during this year’s dominant effort, he’s averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per outing.

In terms of his per-inning performance and his overall raw stuff, Snell is one of the most appealing pitchers in baseball. But he’s also lacked both consistency and efficiency throughout his career, and he’s been on the injured list due to an adductor strain (twice), a fractured toe, loose bodies in his elbow and gastrointeritis since winning that 2018 Cy Young Award. This year’s 142 innings are already the second-highest total of his career. Snell will also have to contend with a qualifying offer, which he’ll surely reject in search of a longer-term deal.

Snell undoubtedly has his flaws, but over the past calendar year he’s made 33 starts and posted a 2.51 ERA with a 31.8% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate, 42.8% grounder rate and just 0.84 homers per nine innings. He’s pitched 183 innings in that time — just shy of 5 2/3 frames per outing. There’s plenty of reason for caution, but Snell at his best is a legitimate Game 1 starter in a postseason series. Volatility notwithstanding, he could land a nine-figure deal of five or more years in length.

10. Josh Hader, RP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer

While some of the names on this list have struggled since the June edition of our Power Rankings, Hader has been the opposite. He’s tossed 16 shutout innings since that day, allowing just six hits and punching out 44.6% of his opponents. The 29-year-old now boasts a career-low 0.81 ERA in 44 2/3 innings on the season. He’s carrying a 39.9% strikeout rate, and while his 13.5% walk rate remains high, that’s easier to get away with when two out of every five hitters that come to the plate fall to a strikeout.

There was some concern surrounding Hader as he slumped in the weeks preceding and immediately following last year’s trade to the Padres. He righted the ship following a six-run meltdown in late August, however. Since shaking off that disastrous outing, Hader has pitched 61 1/3 innings of 0.74 ERA ball with a 39.7% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s still primarily a fly-ball pitcher, but Hader’s 36.3% ground-ball rate is a pretty big jump from the 27.4% mark he posted from 2018-22. He’s using the sinker he implemented in 2022 more than ever this year, and while his 2.6% homer-to-flyball rate is bound to regress, this year’s pristine 0.20 HR/9 is also at least partially influenced by that uptick in grounders.

Hader will receive and reject a qualifying offer. That’s a risk for most relievers, but it’s a slam dunk for Hader, who could become the highest-paid relief pitcher ever within the next few months. He’ll be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the reliever record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. Barring a catastrophic collapse or a disastrously timed injury, Hader will take aim at making Diaz’s record and have a good chance at making it short-lived.

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader (OF), Jeimer Candelario (3B), Sonny Gray (SP), Teoscar Hernandez (OF/DH), Shota Imanaga (SP)**, Michael Lorenzen (SP), Yuki Matsui (RP)**,  Eduardo Rodriguez (SP)*, Jorge Soler (DH/OF)*, Marcus Stroman (SP)*

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: June Edition

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We’re at the regular season’s halfway point, and the free-agent landscape has changed a fair bit since we last ran through our Power Rankings back in mid-April. Injuries, changes in performance — some for the better, some for the worse — and more have combined to provide more context as to what shape the top of the free agent market will take.

As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Youth, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels: There are no surprises up top. Ohtani remains far and away the top name on this year’s list — so much so that he might even command double the No. 2 entrant on our list. That’s both a testament to his general excellence and an indictment on what is generally a weaker free agent class than is typical.

Ohtani, 29 in July, isn’t having quite as dominant a season on the mound as he did in 2022, but he’s still been quite good and is enjoying his best year to date with the bat. In 95 1/3 innings, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. The latter is a marked uptick from the 6.7% he logged a year ago. Ohtani’s strikeout rate is only down about half a percentage point from its 2022 levels, but he’s seen more notable drops in swinging-strike rate (from 14.9% to 13.5%) and opponents’ chase rate (32.6% to 29.5%). This is also the most homer-prone he’s ever been on the mound; his 1.13 HR/9 is a career-high, and the 12 homers he’s allowed in 95 1/3 innings innings are already just two shy of last year’s total of 14 — which came over a span of 166 frames.

To some extent, that’s just nitpicking. Ohtani has still been excellent. His ERA ranks 15th among qualified starting pitchers, and only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has a higher strikeout rate. He currently ranks sixth among qualified pitchers in K-BB% (23%), and fielding-independent metrics are generally supportive of his success (e.g. 3.40 SIERA, 3.35 xERA). Hitters simply haven’t been able to make good contact against Ohtani, outside that handful of home runs anyway. His 86 mph average opponents’ exit velocity is in the 93rd percentile of MLB pitchers. His 34.8% opponents’ hard-hit rate is in the 77th percentile. He’s induced grounders at a solid 44.4% clip. The uptick in walks is significant, but that’s only taken Ohtani from an ace-level performer to a slight step below that level.

And of course, when discussing Ohtani, the mound work is only half the equation. His work in the batter’s box this season has been nothing short of sensational. In 360 plate appearances, Ohtani is batting .309/.389/659. That’s 82% better than league-average production after weighting for home park, by measure of wRC+. Ohtani has already belted 28 home runs, and he’s added 15 doubles and five triples while swiping 11 bags (in 15 tries). This year’s 11.4% walk rate is right an exact match for his career mark (although shy of his 15.6% peak), and his 21.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career.

Ohtani has averaged an obscene 93.7 mph off the bat this year and ranks in the 95th percentile (or better) of MLB hitters in exit velocity, barrel rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. He’s a bona fide middle-of-the-order bat with the speed to swipe 25 to 30 bases and the power to clear 40 home runs.

When chatting about this update to our Power Rankings, Anthony Franco rhetorically asked me if I thought Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher (if somehow separated) would both still individually rank ahead of the rest of this year’s class of free agents. We both agreed that they would. Fortunately, one team will get both this offseason — it just might cost more than half a billion dollars.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes (Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball): Many people have wondered what type of contract Ohtani might have originally commanded if he’d waited two years to jump to Major League Baseball. Because he opted to make the jump at 23 years of age, he was considered an “amateur” under MLB rules and thus limited to the confines of MLB’s international free agent system. Since he’s not also a world class hitter, Yamamoto won’t give us an exact answer to that now-unanswerable Ohtani hypothetical, but he’ll show us what a 25-year-old ace can command under true open-market pricing if and when the Buffaloes post him, as expected.

Yamamoto, 25 in August, is one of the best pitchers in NPB and perhaps one of the most talented arms on the planet. The right-hander made his NPB debut as an 18-year-old rookie in 2017, stepped into the Buffaloes’ rotation full-time in 2019, and has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons, including this year’s current mark of 1.98. The lone exception was 2020, when his ERA ballooned all the way to… ahem, 2.20. Yamamoto has a sub-2.00 ERA in his career, and that’s including the 5.32 mark he posted in that age-18 rookie season.

So far in 2023, Yamamoto has pitched 68 1/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, a 27.8% strikeout rate and a superlative 4.1% walk rate. Just 11 of the 266 batters he’s faced have drawn a free pass. That’s a career-best mark for a pitcher who’s long had outstanding command but has continually whittled away at his walk rate over the years. In his NPB career, Yamamoto has walked just 6.1% of opponents against a 26.5% strikeout rate.

MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski kicked off his latest NPB Players To Watch piece with a look at Yamamoto’s recent run of dominance: a stretch of three consecutive eight-inning starts with just one run allowed and a 29.8% strikeout rate and .092 opponents’ average along the way. World Baseball Classic fans may remember Yamamoto’s performance as well: in 7 1/3 innings he allowed just two runs on four hits and two walks with 12 strikeouts. Back in April, Dai described Yamamoto as the “undisputed ace of NPB,” noting that he’s won the Sawamura Award (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) in each of the past two seasons. He also won the pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins) in 2021-22 and has a chance to repeat the feat in 2023.

Like so many pitchers these days, Yamamoto boasts a mid- to upper-90s heater. Scouts credit him with a potentially plus-plus splitter and give favorable reviews of his curveball and general athleticism as well. Presumably, there’s some trepidation regarding a pitcher who’s listed at just 5’10” and 169 pounds, and whoever signs him will have to pay a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. Those are about the only “red flags” in Yamamoto’s profile.

Yamamoto’s countryman, Kodai Senga, has had some inconsistent command but generally performed well since signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets. In an offseason piece, Joel Sherman of the New York Post quoted an evaluator who graded Yamamoto a full grade better than Senga on the 20-80 scale. And, it bears emphasizing, Yamamoto is five years younger than Senga. We haven’t seen a pitcher with this type of pedigree make the jump from Japan without any spending restrictions since Masahiro Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155MM deal with the Yankees. Yamamoto is younger than Tanaka was, he’s arguably better, and the price of pitching has only gone up since that time. A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.

3. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays: It’s been a tale of two seasons for Chapman, who was perhaps baseball’s best hitter in April and one of its worst in May. The slump has been longer than the hot streak at this point, although the aggregate .265/.343/.457 slash is still well above league average (23% better, by measure of wRC+). Paired with his characteristically excellent defense (7 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average already), and Chapman’s still been an undeniably valuable player, even if the nature of his contributions for the Jays have been quite frontloaded in the schedule’s early portion.

That said, it’s still incumbent upon Chapman to turn things around at the plate sooner than later. The weight of that early, Herculean stretch will continually diminish, and the current version of the former All-Star simply isn’t that compelling. Early in the year, Chapman was regularly making blistering contact and had dramatically cut back on his strikeouts. In writing about his brilliant start to the season in early May, I pointed out that he’d begun to let the strikeouts creep back in and wondered whether that was a mere blip or the onset of some regression.

Unfortunately, the strikeout issues that have dogged Chapman in the aftermath of his 2020 hip surgery have resurfaced. Dating back to May 1, Chapman is hitting just .203/.279/.339 with an a 30.2% strikeout rate. He’s still walking at a respectable 8.8% rate, and his quality of contact is excellent. Chapman is averaging 92.4 mph off the bat and hitting the ball at 95 mph or better in 52.7% of his plate appearances even during this prolonged slump. After benefiting from a .449 BABIP early in the year, he’s seen that mark swing down to .269 in May and June.

In all likelihood, the “true” results are somewhere between the two extremes of Chapman’s 2023 season. He’s not the hitter he was in April, but he’s certainly better than he’s been in May and June. The question is whether Chapman can curb the strikeouts moving forward. His propensity for thunderous contact (when he makes it) should lead to some positive regression and once again begin to produce better results. But if he fans at a 30% clip from here on out, there may not be enough balls in play to help him prop his stat line back up. Furthermore, it’d mark the third time in four seasons he finished at or above a 30% strikeout rate, which doesn’t inspire much confidence over the course of a long-term deal.

Chapman still ranks prominently here because the overall numbers are still good, and because, frankly, the crop of position players this offseason is dreadful. In fact, he’s the only pure position player on this installment of our Power Rankings, which is unprecedented. If Chapman can sustain his quality of contact and scale back the strikeouts slightly, he could still find a seven- or eight-year deal heading into his age-31 season. His overall production right now is comparable to the output posted by Kris Bryant in advance of his foray into free agency (which resulted in a seven-year, $182MM contract), and Chapman has far more defensive value than Bryant.

4. Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: It’s been a tough start to the year for a number of top free agent pitchers, but Giolito has generally pitched well. His strikeout rate is down from its 33.7% peak, but he’s still fanning more than a quarter of his opponents with his typical brand of better-than-average command (7.5% walk rate). It’s too soon to tell is this is a trend, but it bears mentioning that Giolito has upped his slider usage recently and seen a notable increase in strikeouts. Over his past five starts, he’s thrown the slider at a 35.8% clip, as compared to his prior 28.4% usage rate. It’s not a massive increase, but Giolito had just three starts with a slider rate of 30% or more in his first 11 trips to the hill; since May 30, he’s been between 31.4% and 41.2% in each start. It does seem to mark a clear change in attack plan, and after fanning 23.9% of hitters through those 11 starts, he’s up to 29.4% over his past five.

Giolito’s 93.3 mph average fastball is actually up slightly from 2022’s average of 92.7 mph. Home runs remain an issue (1.36 HR/9), and he’s been a bit more homer-prone on the road than in his hitter-friendly home park this year. That’s not the norm, however; the right-hander has allowed more than 1.5 homers per nine innings in his career at home but is at a much more palatable 1.16 mark on the road.

Giolito’s current 3.41 ERA would mark the fourth time in five seasons that he finished with an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. Last year’s 4.90 looks like a clear outlier that was largely fueled by a career-high .340 average on balls in play. (The White Sox, notably, were among the game’s worst defensive teams in 2022.)

As with all free agents, age is crucial. In Giolito’s case, it’ll work in his favor. He’s 28 years old as of this writing and will turn 29 in mid-July. Even a seven-year contract would “only” carry through his age-35 season. It’s also worth noting that he’s been a frequently speculated trade candidate, and if he’s flipped to another club, he’d be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. That carries significance in free agency, too.

Giolito might not be an ace, but he’s a surefire playoff starter for any team in Major League Baseball. He’s the second-youngest of the starters on this list with big league experience and has been a workhorse since 2018, ranking 10th among all MLB pitchers with 855 innings pitched in that time. Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) signed similar contracts that began in their age-30 seasons. Neither had a track record as long as Giolito, who’ll be a year younger in his first free agent season. A six- or even seven-year deal could be in play, depending on how he finishes.

5. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers: Urias is among the hardest players to peg among this year’s group. On the one hand, he posted a combined 2.63 ERA over 495 1/3 innings from 2019-22 and is slated to hit the open market in advance of age-27 season — a borderline unprecedentedly young age for a top-end starter to become a free agent. On the other, the lefty has been on the injured list for more than a month owing to a hamstring strain. He didn’t pitch all that well before landing on 15-day IL either. In 55 1/3 innings, Urias worked to a pedestrian 4.39 ERA, thanks primarily to a stunning uptick in home runs allowed; after yielding 0.98 homers per nine frames from ’19-’22, he’s allowed an average of 2.28 homers per nine innings in 2023.

That said, the rest of Urias’ numbers look quite similar to his peak output. His 23.3% strikeout rate is down a bit from the 24.7% he posted in 2019-22, but his 4.8% walk rate is notably better than his already strong 6.3% mark. His fastball velocity is right in line with last year’s level (when Urias notched a 2.16 ERA in 175 innings), as is his 10.8% swinging-strike rate. His 34.1% opponents’ chase rate remains strong.

The primary problem isn’t even an uptick in fly-balls, but rather in the percentage of those fly-balls that leave the yard. Entering the 2022 season, just 9.1% of the fly-balls allowed by Urias had become home runs. This year, it’s a staggering 20.3%. Broadly speaking, homer-to-flyball rate is susceptible to short-term spikes and tends to even out over a larger sample, but the uptick in homers hasn’t been well-timed. That’s doubly true given that for all of Urias’ success, he’s neither the flamethrowing powerhouse nor elite misser of bats that modern front offices covet. He’s succeeded thanks to elite command and by regularly limiting hard contact. Urias’ strikeout rates are typically a bit above average, but he’s never placed higher than the 67th percentile of MLB pitchers in overall strikeout rate.

That’s not to say Urias isn’t a desirable arm or won’t be a highly coveted pitcher. Prior to his injury, the MLBTR team had discussed possible contracts in excess of $200MM for the lefty, based both on his age and recent excellence. That’s perhaps a bit harder to see now, even if the current issue is a leg injury rather than an arm problem. Urias has only twice made 30 starts in a season, and he also has one major shoulder surgery already on his record (a 2017 procedure to repair a capsule tear).

A third consecutive 30-start season would’ve helped set aside a perceived lack of durability, but he won’t get there in 2023, even though he’s expected to return from the injured list as soon as this weekend. That’s not because of any arm troubles to date, and it should be noted that part of the reason for his lack of innings was some extreme workload management post-surgery that looks to have been effective, based on Urias’ 2021-22 results. Still, he hasn’t often worked a full starter’s slate of games, he won’t do it in 2023, and he hasn’t generated his typical results when healthy — even if most of the skill-oriented numbers remain similar to prior levels.

Urias will also have a qualifying offer to contend with, which isn’t true of every pitcher on these rankings. He’s undeniably talented and the clear youngest of the bunch, but it’d be easier to predict a massive long-term deal if he returns and starts producing more like he did in that aforementioned four-year peak.

6. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Speaking of top-tier starters who haven’t performed up to expectations, the 30-year-old Nola finds himself in a precarious position. MLB’s consummate workhorse since his 2015 debut, Nola has pitched the third-most innings of the 2024 pitchers who’ve taken a big league mound since 2016 — his first full season in the Majors. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have topped Nola’s 1256 1/3 innings in that stretch.

For the majority of that time, Nola has operated on the periphery of ace-dom. He’s only a one-time All-Star and has never won a Cy Young, but the former No. 7 overall pick finished third place in 2017, seventh place in 2020 and fourth place just last year. During his 2017-22 peak, Nola notched a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 47.1% ground-ball rate. His 2022 season featured a terrific 29.1% strikeout rate and an elite 3.6% walk rate over the life of 205 innings — the second-most in all of baseball.

That version of Nola has been nowhere to be found in 2023. Through 105 2/3 innings, he’s posted a pedestrian 4.51 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate (23.9%) since his rookie season back in 2015. Nola’s 6.8% walk rate, while still a very strong mark, is his highest since 2020. He’s allowing more fly-balls than ever before, and unsurprisingly is allowing home runs at a career-worst rate (1.45 HR/9).

Fielding-independent metrics still believe Nola’s above-average strikeout rate, strong walk rate and ability to avoid hard contact ought to be translating to better results; his “expected” ERA is 3.53, per Statcast, while tools like FIP (4.28) and SIERA (4.00) agree he’s been short-changed a bit. Nola’s 65.1% strand rate, in particular, sits about eight percentage points below his career level and below the league average.

Heading into the season, a six- or seven-year deal seemed within reach for one of the game’s most durable and consistently above-average starting pitchers. He’s maintained the “durable” half of that equation, making 17 starts and averaging a hearty 6.22 innings per outing. The results haven’t been there, however, and Nola’s velocity is down about a half mile per hour on most of his pitches. It’s not the platform season he wanted, and even with the so-so results, he’ll surely still have a QO attached to him. There’s still an easy case for a long-term deal here, and a strong second half of the season would quiet a lot of these concerns. To this point, however, Nola has looked more like a mid-rotation starter than someone who’d be fronting a playoff staff.

7. Blake Snell, SP, Padres: Snell has been the best pitcher on the planet for the past month or so, generally erasing a terrible start to the season. This sort of Jekyll & Hyde performance is old hat for the former AL Cy Young winner, who closed out both the 2022 and 2021 seasons in dominant fashion, offsetting a wave of pedestrian starts in each instance. That endorsement of Snell’s past month isn’t even hyperbole; dating back to May 25, Snell has a comical 0.86 ERA with a 66-to-15 K/BB ratio in 42 innings. He’s fanned a massive 44.1% of his opponents against a better-than-average 8.1% walk rate.

Snell’s rollercoaster traits are nothing new, and they may scare some interested suitors in free agency. There’s no skirting the fact that he has a penchant for slow starts to the season, and when Snell is off his game, he can look lost. He doesn’t have pristine command in the first place, and walks become a particularly glaring issue when he’s in a rut. When he’s not as his best, Snell has a tendency to labor through short starts, which can tax a bullpen.

That said, here’s a look at Snell’s past 48 starts: 259 1/3 innings, 3.05 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 0.90 HR/9, 36.9% ground-ball rate, .196 opponents’ average. The road he takes to get there may be infuriating at times, both for fans and his organization’s decision-makers, but Snell has clear top-of-the-rotation stuff. He’s currently riding a streak of four straight starts with double-digit strikeouts, during which he’s yielded just three runs.

The Padres can and very likely will make Snell a qualifying offer. He should reject while giving little, if any thought to the contrary. The qualifying offer and general inconsistency might hurt him, but there will also be teams who look at those factors as a possible avenue to signing a starter with genuine No. 1 talent at a cost that isn’t commensurate with those types of arms. Snell will pitch all of the 2024 season at age 31, and paired with his inconsistency, that might cap him at five years. But he should command $20MM per year over that five-year term, making a nine-figure deal within reach …. barring a second-half collapse that heightens concerns about the fluctuations in his performance.

8. Josh Hader, RP, Padres: Rumors of Hader’s demise as an elite closer last summer were greatly exaggerated, it seems. The four-time All-Star was struggling in the weeks leading up to his trade from Milwaukee to San Diego, and he didn’t help his cause when he allowed a dozen August runs following the swap. That slump was capped off by a six-run drubbing at the hands of a lowly Royals offense.

Since then, it’s been business as usual for Hader. The lefty quietly finished out the year with a 0.79 ERA in his final 11 1/3 innings. He was unscored upon from Sept. 7 through season’s end, and he went on to pitch another 5 1/3 shutout innings in the postseason, fanning 10 hitters in the process. Hader is now sitting on a sparkling 1.26 ERA. His 37.8% strikeout rate isn’t quite as high as his ridiculous 47.8% peak in 2019, but he still ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate.

Since putting that six-run August meltdown against the Royals behind him, here’s Hader’s line (postseason included): 45 1/3 innings, 0.99 ERA, 38% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 29 saves.

Hader will be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the relief pitcher record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. So long as he keeps somewhere near this pace, he’ll take aim at making Diaz’s record short-lived.

9. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs: Stroman’s three-year, $71MM contract allows him to opt out of the final year this offseason. In doing so, he’d leave $21MM on the table, but there’s little doubt he’d be able to topple that mark in free agency. Stroman has already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive a second one. He’s also the current MLB leader in bWAR (3.5) and third in the Majors in RA9-WAR (also 3.5). Through 102 innings, Stroman touts a 2.47 ERA and a 59.3% grounder rate that’s second only to Logan Webb among all qualified pitchers.

Good as Stroman’s results are, there’s some reason to be a bit skeptical on his earning power. He can surely outpace the $21MM he’d leave on the table by opting out, likely securing another multi-year deal in free agency. That said, Stroman’s profile hasn’t really changed since his last foray into the open market. He still has a below-average strikeout rate, and the lower-than-average walk rate he had last time around has crept up to about league average in 2023. He’s inducing more grounders than he has since 2018, but the primary reason for the drop in his ERA has been a career-low home run rate. Just 8.3% of the fly-balls allowed by Stroman have been homers — well shy of his 13.5% career mark.

Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples — Stroman was between 12.6% and 13.9% every year from 2018-22, for instance — so teams might essentially view him as the same pitcher he was in the 2021-22 offseason, just a couple years older. One factor working in Stroman’s favor is that the price of pitching has increased since then; Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt all helped advance that market last offseason. Bassitt’s three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays should be of particular note. He secured that contract despite being hit with a QO that Stroman won’t have to contend with, and did so heading into his age-34 season. Next year will be Stroman’s age-33 season. He should at least be able to secure a three-year deal at a larger AAV than Bassitt received. A four-year deal with an AAV north of $20MM is also possible.

10. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals: Montgomery had a pair of rough starts in the season’s first six weeks, allowing seven and six runs in that pair of outings and ballooning his ERA in the process. Things have largely evened out though, and Montgomery’s numbers look just as solid as they did when he was establishing himself as a mid-rotation hurler in the Bronx, Through 92 innings, he’s posted a 3.52 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 46.6% grounder rate that all line up neatly with his 2021-22 production.

Montgomery pitched just 31 1/3 big league innings in 2018-19 due to Tommy John surgery and struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign upon his return from that operation. Since Opening Day 2021, however, he carries a 3.66 ERA and matching secondary marks (3.61 FIP, 3.88 SIERA) in 421 innings. If the Cardinals don’t trade Montgomery, he’ll be a natural qualifying offer candidate. He’d very likely reject that one-year offer in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Montgomery isn’t an ace, but the market rewarded both Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Walker (four years, $72MM) with four-year contracts last winter. Neither had a QO attached to him, but Montgomery, who’ll turn 31 in December, has a better recent track record than both pitchers as well.

Of course, if the Cardinals remain out of the postseason hunt in late July, Montgomery will be a sought-after trade candidate. A trade to another club would render him ineligible to receive a QO. Even if the Cardinals hang onto him and make him a QO, he’ll still reach free agency in search of a comparable or even larger deal than the ones signed by Taillon, Walker and Bassitt. As with Stroman, it’s worth noting that Bassitt was older in free agency than Montgomery will be (by a margin of three years in Montgomery’s case).

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Shota Imanaga, Joc Pederson, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Max Scherzer (player option), Jorge Soler (player option)

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Welcome to the year’s first edition of the 2023-24 MLB free agent power rankings!  With this series we will attempt to rank players who are on track for free agency after the 2023 season, by measure of their estimated earning power.

MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season.  Season performance will start to influence these rankings, but 11 or 12 games into the season, it’s not much of a factor in the April edition.  By the end of the season, 2023 results will matter quite a bit.  A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.

For the full list of 2023-24 MLB free agents, click here.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively by myself and MLBTR writers Anthony Franco, Steve Adams, and Darragh McDonald.  Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

The 2023-24 MLB free agent class is an odd one.  It’s headed up by Shohei Ohtani, the Angels’ incredible two-way superstar, but seems to fall short of last winter’s class that was led by Aaron Judge and four star shortstops.

As can often happen, the 2023-24 class has had some of its thunder stolen by extensions.  Notably, Manny Machado and Rafael Devers inked extensions in excess of $300MM.  Yu Darvish and Miles Mikolas came off the market this year as well.  Other players who would have been free agents after ’23 had they not signed extensions include Matt Olson, Tyler Glasnow, Luis Castillo, Ozzie Albies, Yoan Moncada, Ryan McMahon, and Kyle Freeland.  And just a few hours prior to the publishing of this list, the Cubs agreed to an odd three-year deal to retain Ian Happ, who had been ranked eighth.  Additional players from the list below may also come off the board with extensions before free agency opens in November.

Let’s get to it!

1.  Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels:  Ohtani signed with the Angels in December 2017, generating significant hype given his ability to serve as both a starting pitcher and regular designated hitter.  He’d done so for five years as a member of NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters.  No one knew how this experiment would go, as even Babe Ruth quickly phased out pitching after he started setting home run records in 1919.

Scouts were skeptical, but Ohtani posted a huge 149 wRC+ in 367 plate appearances as a rookie, while also pitching to a 3.31 ERA in ten starts.  The performance netted him the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2018.  But aside from dealing with blisters that year, Ohtani came down with an elbow sprain in June.  He got a platelet-rich plasma injection, stopped pitching for the season, and continued hitting.  He returned to the mound for a brief outing in September that year, and then underwent Tommy John surgery after the season ended.

Ohtani was still able to hit in 2019, returning in May of that year and posting a 120 wRC+ on the season.  That campaign ended early with surgery to address a bipartite patella in his left knee.  The pandemic delayed the start of the 2020 season, resulting in a gap of nearly two years between Major League pitching appearances for Ohtani.

Based on where he went in my fantasy baseball drafts in March 2021, expectations were relatively low for Ohtani entering that season.  Ohtani shattered those expectations, winning the AL MVP award in ’21 and finishing second in ’22.  He posted a 146 wRC+ with 80 home runs in 1,305 plate appearances during that time.  Ohtani also made 51 starts across 296 1/3 innings, posting a 2.70 ERA and 31.4 K%.  His pitching performance netted a fourth place Cy Young finish in 2022.

Over the past two seasons, Ohtani accomplished what many thought simply could not be done in modern MLB.  Ohtani, who turns 29 in July, is simultaneously one of the best hitters and pitchers in MLB.  He was worth 17.5 WAR from 2021-22, edging out Aaron Judge for the best in the game.  Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime sensation at the peak of his abilities.

Ohtani is earning an arbitration-record $30MM this year, and he’s on track for free agency after the season.  Angels owner Arte Moreno was unwilling to part with Ohtani despite trade offers last summer, just as he was ultimately unwilling to sell his team this winter despite soliciting bids.  Moreno hopes to retain his two-way star, but told reporters, “Ohtani has to want to be here too.”  Moreno expressed willingness to go over the competitive balance tax threshold, but also admitted that the club has not had discussions with Ohtani.

The Angels have never had a winning season in Ohtani’s five years with the club, though that might change in 2023.  Asked about the extension possibility in February, agent Nez Balelo said, “I’ve always been open to it. But there’s several layers to this one, and Shohei’s earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency, and we’ll see where it shakes out.”

So, what actually drives Shohei Ohtani?  There’s evidence it’s not entirely money, since he chose to come to MLB at age 23.  His age limited him to a $2.3MM signing bonus, when waiting two more years could’ve resulted in over $100MM more.  Ohtani’s six other finalists in 2017 were the Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants.  At the time, Balelo said, “While there has been much speculation about what would drive Shohei’s decision, what mattered to him most wasn’t market size, time zone or league but that he felt a true bond with the Angels.”

Still, many have noted that most of Ohtani’s finalists were on the West Coast.  And it’s certainly logical that after accomplishing so much as an individual, Ohtani will focus on joining a team he believes will be a perennial contender.  The Dodgers and Padres are oft-cited potential matches, and most expect the Mets to be heavily involved.  The Giants took two large swings at star players last winter, and the Yankees and Mariners shouldn’t be discounted.  I’m sure you could name a half-dozen at least semi-reasonable fits.  In terms of payroll commitments for 2024 and beyond, the Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners are much better-positioned than the Yankees, Padres, and Mets, though it’s difficult to picture Steve Cohen staying out of the fray.

The largest contract in MLB history remains Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365MM extension in July 2020, though it included significant deferrals.  Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout received $360MM in new money back in 2019.  So no one has even signed for $400MM yet, though the Padres reportedly offered Judge around $415MM and the Nationals offered Juan Soto $440MM.

No one doubts that Ohtani will become the first player to truly top the $400MM barrier, and common speculation is that he will reach $500MM.  Where will the bidding stop for a generational talent and marketing bonanza such as Ohtani?  I’m not willing to rule out a $600MM contract, though perhaps something in the $550MM range could represent a sweet spot.

The 2022-23 offseason included a trend toward extra-long contracts, with Machado, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts all getting 11-year contracts paying through age 40.  The goal of those was to reduce the average annual value and accompanying CBT hit.  Going through age 40 would mean a 12-year contract for Ohtani, though I personally think a 14-year term has a chance of passing MLB’s scrutiny.  It’s been suggested that the Padres’ concept of paying Judge through age 44 wouldn’t have passed muster, but that’s not to say going through age 42 is off the table.

If Ohtani aims for maximum dollars and the $40MM standard only Judge has achieved on a long-term deal, I think 14 years and $560MM could be an end point.  There’s also an argument that since Ohtani is both an elite hitter and pitcher, he should land an average annual value in excess of $45MM or even $50MM.  Max Scherzer currently holds the record at $43,333,333.33 per year, though only Judge received $40MM for more than three years.

I could also be wildly wrong and Ohtani could fall well short of the $560MM guess.  Nor do I have any idea whether Ohtani will accept the largest deal proposed to him.  Buckle up for what could be the most fascinating and frenzied free agency in MLBTR’s 17-year history.  Our Ohtani page can be found here, which we’ll be beefing up with some additional quality content soon.

2.  Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers:  Urias may not generate the hype of Ohtani, but the lefty is a former prodigy in his own right and our clear #2 for earning power in this free agent class.  After being handled carefully as a minor leaguer, Urias made his Major League debut for the Dodgers at the age of 19, way back in 2016.  His pitch counts were kept low, and at the end of a successful season Urias made two playoff appearances for the Dodgers, including an NLCS start.

Unfortunately, Urias came down with a serious shoulder injury in June 2017, and anterior capsule surgery was required.  He went nearly 16 months between MLB appearances.  In 2019, Urias was again handled carefully, pitching out of the bullpen more often than the rotation.  That year, he was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence, according to the LAPD.  MLB ultimately issued a 20-game suspension.

Urias entered 2020 without restrictions, and wound up making ten starts in the pandemic-shortened season.  He was utilized creatively in the postseason that year, making two starts and four multi-inning relief appearances.  Urias memorably got the last seven outs in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series, freezing Willy Adames with a called strike for the last one and getting mobbed by his Dodgers teammates after winning it all.

Urias further turned a corner in 2021, topping 200 innings between the regular season and postseason – easily a career-high.  He won 20 games with a 2.96 ERA and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting.  He followed that up in 2022 with a third-place Cy Young finish and an NL-best 2.16 ERA.

Despite a 2.57 ERA from 2021-22 that ranked second among all qualified starters, Urias can’t quite be described as dominant.  His 25.2 K% during that time was still above-average, ranking 21st among starters.  His pinpoint control was even better, with a 5.5 BB% that ranked ninth.  Much of Urias’ success can be attributed to his ability to limit hard contact.  His BABIP was just .251 from 2021-22, third-lowest in MLB, and his Statcast hard-hit rate ranked second each year.  Urias is not particularly adept at getting groundballs, but fewer of the flyballs he allows leave the yard.

So Urias’ case as one of the best pitchers in baseball is based more on great control and weak contact than it is punching out batters.  His results are undeniable.  But the factor that sends his earning power through the roof is his age: he does not turn 27 until August.  Because players so rarely debut at the age of 19, it follows that a free agent ace entering his age-27 season is extremely uncommon.  We have seen it on the position player side, such as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado hitting free agency in advance of their age-26 campaigns.

Pitchers are seen as greater risks than position players, so Harper’s 13-year term probably isn’t happening with Urias.  On the other hand, last offseason’s trend for star free agents was all about reaching a specific total, with the years and average annual value being secondary.  Agent Scott Boras likely has a clear target to attempt to top: Stephen Strasburg’s $245MM, a contract he brokered in December 2019.  If getting there requires a term that would’ve previously been considered untenable, such as nine or ten years, that wouldn’t shock me.

It is worth noting that Strasburg’s contract has been a disaster due to injuries.  Urias’ shoulder surgery will be more than six years behind him when he hits free agency, but a clean bill of health will be crucial to any monster long-term deal.  There’s also the matter of Urias’ good-but-not-amazing strikeout rate in an age where some starters can whiff more than 30% of batters faced.  Urias doesn’t have that, and his fastball averages 93 miles per hour rather than 97.  So while I think Boras’ goal and expectation will be $250MM+, it remains to be seen whether Urias can secure the second-largest pitcher contract of all-time behind Gerrit Cole’s $324MM.

Where do the Dodgers stand on Urias?  The club has been perfectly willing to let star free agents leave, while also retaining other long-time Dodgers or occasionally plucking a top free agent from another team.  In other words, there’s no way to know their intentions with Urias based on their history.  I will say that I could see the potential risk being too high for the Dodgers, and it’s possible they focus their efforts on Ohtani or other top free agent pitchers.

3.  Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies:  Nola and Urias will make for an interesting comparison, if both reach the open market after the season.

Nola turns 30 in June, so he’s about three years older than Urias.  Nola was drafted seventh overall by the Phillies in 2014 out of Louisiana State, making his MLB debut the following year at the age of 22.  He was seen as more of a high floor than a high ceiling pitcher at the time.

Nola experienced an early-career hiccup in August of 2016, when he hit the IL for an elbow strain.  That injury ended Nola’s season after 20 starts.  Nola was able to recover from the strain without surgery, and has not gone on the IL for an arm injury since.  Furthermore, Nola has become the game’s preeminent workhorse, leading all pitchers in innings from 2018-22.

Nola is much more ace than innings guy, however, having turned a corner in 2018 with a third-place Cy Young finish.  He also finished seventh in 2020, and fourth in ’22.  Like Urias, Nola works around 93 miles per hour, but the Phillies’ righty has racked up strikeouts at an elite clip.  From 2020-22, Nola whiffed 30% of batters faced, ninth in MLB among qualified starters.  His control is even better than that of Urias, with a 4.9 BB% during that time that ranked fourth among starters.

Nola added his first playoff experience last year in the Phillies’ run to the World Series.  A pair of excellent starts helped the Phillies advance, though he faltered in the NLCS and World Series.

Nola’s groundball rate has slipped in recent years, and his Statcast marks haven’t been consistently excellent the way Urias’ have.  That means Nola’s home run rate and batting average on balls in play can fluctuate season-to-season.  That’s how he was able to post a 2.37 ERA in 2018 but a 4.63 mark in 2021 despite arguably demonstrating better skills in the latter season.

Back when Nola had three years of MLB service, he inked a four-year extension with the Phillies that included a club option on a fifth year, which the Phillies gladly exercised.  If he remains healthy and effective in 2023, a contract north of $200MM has to be in play if Nola reaches the open market.

Nola and the Phillies have shown mutual interest in a contract extension this year, with offers being exchanged in February.  Talks were tabled when an agreement could not be reached prior to the season, but both Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and agent Joe Longo spoke positively of rekindling discussions after the season.  That can be difficult when free agency is days rather than months or years away, but it has happened before and remains a possibility here.

4.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes: Back in February, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that there is “strong belief among MLB teams” that Yamamoto will be posted by the Buffaloes after the season.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote, “Yamamoto is already a four-time NPB All-Star and has taken home both the Pacific League MVP Award and the Sawamura Award (Japan’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award) in each of the past two seasons.”

Adams compiled stats and various scouting reports suggesting Yamamoto could profile as an ace or something close to it in MLB as well.  But the kicker is that Yamamoto doesn’t turn 25 until August, so he’s two years younger than even Urias.  Pitchers this good and this young can basically only come through international free agency, and Yamamoto will be right at the age that allows for the full bidding war that Ohtani passed on when he came over.

Masahiro Tanaka comes to mind as a someone who moved from NPB to MLB at the same age and at a time when there was open bidding on posted players.  Tanaka’s deal with the Yankees was finalized in January 2014.  That was a seven-year, $155MM contract plus a $20MM posting fee.  That contract notably included an opt-out clause after the fourth season.

The current posting agreement calls for 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of the remainder.  Using a $200MM contract as an example, the posting fee would be $31.875MM.  The posting fee is not part of the competitive balance tax calculation, however, presenting a carrot to teams that carry payrolls high enough to be affected by the CBT.

Ten years after the Tanaka deal, I feel Yamamoto is indeed capable of reaching $200MM before accounting for a posting fee.  However, in this age where teams try to stretch out contracts as long as possible, given his youth Yamamoto might prefer either the flexibility to opt out, the total expiration of the contract while he’s still young enough to be a desirable free agent again, or both.  Though Ohtani will loom large over this offseason, Yamamoto getting posted would be a huge story in its own right.

5.  Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays:  The conversation about Matt Chapman starts with his stellar defense at third base.  Since breaking in with the A’s in 2017, Chapman has snagged three Gold Glove awards, most recently in 2021.

Statcast Outs Above Average backs up Chapman’s defensive excellence, as he’s ranked in the top four at third base in 2017, ’18, and ’19 and first in ’21.  Pandemic-shortened season aside, the only interruption in Chapman’s run of top-shelf defense, at least according to the numbers, was in 2022.  He graded out as more of an average defender last year.  While Chapman’s reputation deservedly holds strong, a strong showing this year will only help his earning power in free agency.

From 2018-19 with the A’s, Chapman’s bat aligned with his glove to push him into 6-WAR superstar territory.  Chapman posted a 132 wRC+ during that time, mashing 60 home runs.  Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed to a dangerous level in the shortened 2020 season, and then he underwent surgery to repair a torn right hip labrum in September of that year.  Chapman had his worst year with the bat in 2021, and the A’s shipped him to Toronto in March 2022 as part of their post-lockout fire sale.

Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed and his batting average plummeted since 2020, though he’s remained an above-average hitter.  He posted a solid 117 wRC+ in 2022, with 90th percentile-range Statcast metrics suggesting room for more.  That has indeed been the case in the early going of 2023, though it’s only been 48 plate appearances at the time of this writing.

Chapman’s 30th birthday is approaching this month, so he’ll play next year at 31.  That could invite comparisons to the free agent contracts signed by Marcus Semien and George Springer, with seven and six-year terms respectively.

However, I keep harping on how the old free agency principles went out the window last winter, so Chapman and agent Scott Boras are hardly limited to a seven-year term.  It’s not difficult to picture a return to the 6-WAR level for Chapman this year and a contract expectation north of $200MM.

Asked about free agency in February, Chapman said all the right things, but there’s no known momentum toward a long-term deal with the Blue Jays.  With fellow third basemen Manny Machado and Rafael Devers staying put, Chapman has emerged as the top non-Ohtani free agent position player of the 2023-24 free agent class.

6.  Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: Giolito was drafted 16th overall by the Nationals in 2012 out of Harvard-Westlake High School.  He was a key piece on the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nats in December 2016.

Giolito struggled mightily in his first full season in the Majors in 2018, and then did a complete about-face in 2019 by making the All-Star team and finishing sixth in the AL Cy Young voting.  He finished seventh and 11th in the years that followed, posting a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7 K% from 2019-21.

Giolito’s performance fell off quite a bit in 2022.  His average fastball velocity dropped from 93.9 miles per hour to 92.6, and his strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction.  While Giolito’s spin rates did go down quite a bit with the June 2021 sticky stuff crackdown, that’s overly simplistic as a complete explanation for his decline.  As John Foley of Pitcher List wrote, “Rather than it being one clear issue to blame, it seems Giolito dealt with a number of seemingly smaller things – perhaps the early season core injury, the COVID illness, the new bulk on his frame, or the changed ability to grip the ball, or some combination thereof – that resulted in subtle mechanical tweaks that decreased the quality of his stuff, reduced the deception in his delivery, and broke down how well his pitches tunneled together.”

It’s far too early to tell whether Giolito will right the ship in 2023.  And even if Giolito doesn’t come all the way back to his 2019-21 levels, he reinvented himself once before, and there are teams that have had more success coaxing the most out of starting pitchers than the White Sox.  For all the extensions the White Sox have worked out, a deal with Giolito doesn’t appear to be in the cards.  Giolito, still only 29 in July, figures to secure an opt-out if his 2023 performance disappoints.

7.  Teoscar Hernandez – RF, Mariners:  Hernandez was signed by the Astros for $20K out of the Dominican Republic in 2011.  The club shipped Hernandez and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays for Francisco Liriano at the 2017 trade deadline.  Prior to that season, Hernandez was considered a 55-grade prospect by Baseball America.

Jose Bautista’s departure opened up a spot for Hernandez in 2018, and he became a starter at the outfield corners for the Jays.  After a couple years of slightly above-average offensive production, Hernandez turned a corner in 2020 with a 142 wRC+ and 16 homers in 207 plate appearances.  That power was no fluke, as Hernandez posted a 131 wRC+ from 2021-22 with 57 home runs, cutting his strikeout rate a bit as an added bonus.  He picked up Silver Slugger awards and MVP votes in both ’20 and ’21.

Overall as a hitter, Hernandez is known for big power, top of the chart Statcast metrics, a still-high strikeout rate, and a middling walk rate.  Though he has a strong arm, Hernandez’s right field defense typically grades as below-average.  Since 2020, the total package has resulted in about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances.  Hernandez has not actually reached that plate appearance plateau, however, as he’s had IL stints for multiple oblique strains.  He’s set to turn 31 in October.

Seeking a controllable bullpen arm and perhaps some payroll flexibility, the Blue Jays traded Hernandez to the Mariners last November for setup man Erik Swanson as well as prospect Adam Macko.  The Mariners have given no signal an extension is in the works for Hernandez, and they beat him in an arbitration hearing in February.  He may wind up a one-year rental for Seattle.

As a free agent, Hernandez gives off some Nick Castellanos vibes, though we think he can top that player’s $100MM deal.  Hernandez lost a key competitor in the market with Ian Happ signing a three-year extension with the Cubs.

8.  Jordan Montgomery, SP – Cardinals: Montgomery, a 30-year-old lefty, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round out of the University of South Carolina back in 2014.  He was able to land the team’s fifth starter job out of camp as a rookie in 2017, though he was not needed until April 12th.

Montgomery had a strong year for the 2017 Yankees despite getting pushed out of the rotation occasionally due to the team’s trades, putting up a 3.88 ERA in 29 starts and finishing sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Montgomery opened 2018 as the Yankees’ fifth starter once again, but unfortunately went down for Tommy John surgery in June.  His recovery resulted in a 16.5 month gap between MLB appearances, as the lefty got in a couple of brief September appearances in ’19.  Pandemic year aside, Montgomery returned to his rookie-year level of performance with a solid 2021 season for New York.

At the trade deadline last year, the Yankees made the surprising choice to ship Montgomery to the Cardinals for center fielder Harrison Bader, who was on the IL at the time.  The jury is still out on that trade, but thus far in 13 starts for the Cardinals running into this year, Montgomery has posted a 2.97 ERA.  He also contributed a scoreless appearance for the Cards in last year’s Wild Card game.

Montgomery has bumped up his velocity post Tommy John, now working above 93 miles per hour on average.  Last year he posted a 21.8 K% that improved when he joined the Cardinals, as well as a fine 5% walk rate that fits with his strong control.  It’ll be interesting to see if Montgomery can continue to push his strikeout rate forward, which would only help his earning power.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco and Steve Adams pushed for Montgomery to get a spot on this list, suggesting a strong season could vault him past the new Jameson Taillon–Taijuan Walker $70MM tier, perhaps to the $100MM range.  He’s got upside to climb as high as sixth in our power rankings this year.

9.  Josh Hader, RP – Padres:  Hader was a 19th round draft pick by the Orioles out of Maryland’s Old Mill High School back in 2012.  At the 2013 trade deadline, the Orioles sent Hader, L.J. Hoes, and a competitive balance round A pick to the Astros for Bud Norris.  Two years later, however, the Astros sent Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana to the Brewers for Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez, and cash.  So that makes two players on this list who were traded away as Astros prospects by Jeff Luhnow.

Hader made his MLB debut for the Brewers in 2017 as a reliever.  At the time, he was still thought to be a starter long-term.  However, as sometimes happens, Hader was so good in the bullpen that the Brewers were never willing or able to move him back into a starting role.  He made his first All-Star team with a dominant 2018, posting an obscene 46.7 K% and finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting.  Hader was used as a multi-inning weapon that year, getting more than three outs 33 times and averaging 1.47 innings per appearance.

The following year, Hader replicated his huge strikeout rate and made another All-Star team.  It was also the last time he averaged more than an inning per appearance.  He racked up 37 saves and inched closer to being used in a traditional stopper role.  Hader made All-Star teams again in ’21 and ’22.

At last year’s trade deadline, three games up in the NL Central, the Brewers attempted to thread the needle by trading Hader to the Padres.  In theory, they could shed some payroll in ’22 and ’23, replace Hader in the bullpen with Taylor Rogers, and pick up prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser along the way.  While that plan did not pan out for Milwaukee, Hader also had a rough entry to his Padres career.  He’d already torched his ERA in two appearances prior to the trade, and then shortly after joining the Padres allowed 12 earned runs in three innings.

Hader then righted the ship for the Padres, closing out the regular season by allowing one run in 11 1/3 innings.  He then dropped an additional 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a dominant postseason.  The Padres had no problem paying Hader $14.1MM for his final arbitration year in ’23.

Hader is a lanky 29-year-old lefty who has generally worked in the 95-97 mile per hour range.  He remains capable of striking out more than 40% of batters faced, allowing 10-11% to reach base via the free pass.  The walks can be less than ideal, and Hader has also been burned by the longball at times.  He’s a flyball pitcher, made worse by a 14% career home run per flyball rate.  In a 60-inning season it would be normal for Hader to allow seven or eight home runs, and in 2019 he gave up 15 bombs.

Despite those flaws, Hader can still be one of baseball’s most dominant relievers, hugely valuable for teams with postseason expectations.  Edwin Diaz’s record five-year, $102MM deal could be in play for Hader with a big year, or perhaps he could land in the $80-90MM range occupied by Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman in the 2016-17 offseason.

10.  Blake Snell, SP – Padres: Snell, 31 in December, was drafted 52nd overall by the Rays in 2011 out of Shorewood High School in Washington.  He was a supplemental draft pick the Rays received for the loss of free agent Brad Hawpe.

Prior to his 2016 Major League debut, Snell ascended to become a consensus top-15 prospect in the game.  The lefty didn’t really settle into the Rays’ rotation until the end of 2017.  2018 was a special year for Snell, as he won the AL Cy Young award, also making the All-Star team and grabbing MVP votes.  His 1.89 ERA topped the American League, and he won 21 games while pitching a career-high 180 2/3 innings.  That was the year Snell’s strikeout rate shot upward past 30%, a level he’s maintained since.  Snell’s dominant 2018 performance led to a five-year, $50MM contract extension prior to 2019.

In July of 2019, Snell underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery, knocking him out for nearly two months.  He made it through the shortened 2020 season unscathed, famously getting pulled by manager Kevin Cash in Game 6 of the World Series after 73 pitches and 5 1/3 innings, having allowed one run on two hits.

Two months later, the Rays moved on from Snell, trading him to the Padres for four players.  He tallied 256 2/3 innings from 2021-22, including time missed for gastroenteritis and multiple groin strains.

Snell received a cortisone shot for his elbow in February 2020, but technically he hasn’t been on the IL for an arm injury since his surgery nearly four years ago.  The knock on Snell is less health and more that he’s never been one to go deep into games.  He averaged over 5.8 innings per start in his Cy Young season, but has otherwise come in south of 5.4.  And from 2019-21, he managed only 4.7 innings per start.  Part of the issue is Snell’s walk rate, which sits north of 10% for his career and can climb above 12%.  In 2022, the average starting pitcher worked 5.2 innings per start, walking 7.5% of batters.

As a lefty working at 95-96 miles per hour, Snell still has the ability to dominate, as evidenced by his high strikeout rates.  And the game has been trending toward shorter starts, with teams increasingly reluctant to let their starter face a lineup a third time.  Snell’s 5.33 innings per start in 2022 ranked 81st in MLB among those with at least 15 starts.  While that’s not impressive, it also wasn’t far off from Charlie Morton (5.55), Jameson Taillon (5.53), Nathan Eovaldi (5.46), Taijuan Walker (5.42), Lucas Giolito and Luis Severino (5.37).  It’s also ahead of several players who got $12MM+ per year in free agency, like Jose Quintana, Ross Stripling, and Mike Clevinger.

Perhaps Snell’s Cy Young season created unreasonable expectations, but he remains a very good pitcher with ample postseason experience.  With a typical season, he should be able to top Taijuan Walker’s four-year, $72MM deal.

Honorable Mentions

Other players considered for this list, or who have a chance to play their way onto it, include Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea, Harrison Bader, Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, and Jung Hoo Lee.  Of course, one of the best parts of baseball is surprising performances, and we’ll revisit the 2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings every month.

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