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Archives for November 2022

The Opener: Adames, Senga, Yoshida

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While folks around the world do their Black Friday shopping, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on in the baseball world in the coming days:

1. Willy Adames Likely Staying Put

Early in the offseason, there had been speculation that the Brewers might deal shortstop Willy Adames, who represented an intriguing, low-cost alternative to the top four shortstops on the free agent market. This outcome has become far less likely in recent days, however, as it was recently reported that Adames and Milwaukee have engaged in extension discussions. While no extension seems imminent, when combined with Jeff Passan of ESPN’s report that the Brewers are hoping to build around Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff this winter, the contract discussions certainly seem to indicate Adames will be playing for the Brewers on Opening Day 2023. If the Brewers have truly decided to hold onto Adames, that would further limit the shortstop market this offseason, with Elvis Andrus and Andrelton Simmons representing the second tier of options available to clubs who miss on Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

2. Kodai Senga Meeting With Teams

Right-hander Koudai Senga has drawn widespread interest across MLB as he prepares to make the jump from Japan this offseason. Recently, he has begun taking meetings with teams, including the Padres, Mets, and, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Rangers. Those three teams are far from the only ones with known interest in Senga, however, as the Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are just a few of the teams who have been connected to Senga this offseason. Senga’s preference is reportedly to play in a big market with a chance to win right now, so it’s no wonder that the teams that have been most aggressively connected to him are the larger markets in the sport. Now that the offseason slowdown that comes with Thanksgiving is out of the way, it’s possible we will begin to see Senga meeting with more teams in the coming days.

3. When Will Masataka Yoshida Be Posted?

It has been reported that NPB slugger Masataka Yoshida will be posted for MLB teams to sign this offseason, with multiple teams, including the Yankees and Blue Jays, already showing interest. The window to post players typically ends on December 5th, meaning there’s less than two weeks left for Yoshida’s Buffaloes to post him, beginning his thirty day negotiation window with big league clubs. When posted, Yoshida will join a corner outfield market littered with both talented players and age- or injury-related concerns about many of those talented players, potentially making Yoshida, 29, one of the most attractive options on the market behind Aaron Judge. Still, as with any player making the jump from Japan to stateside ball, there will be questions about just how much of his elite production in Japan will transfer over into the majors. Whenever Yoshida ends up being posted, his market will be among the most interesting to follow this offseason.

Rays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

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In a market thin on center field help, Brandon Nimmo has naturally drawn a lot of interest on the free agent market.  Many of baseball’s bigger spenders have been linked to the former Mets standout, but according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the low-payroll Rays are also a rather surprising suitor for Nimmo’s services.

MLBTR projected Nimmo for a five-year, $110MM deal this winter, which would represent far and away the largest contract the Rays have even given to a free agent.  It would also represent the franchise’s second-largest expenditure on any contract, behind only Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension.  Since Nimmo rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer, Tampa Bay would also have to give up their third-highest pick in the 2023 draft as compensation for signing the outfielder — no small penalty for a club that relies on building from within.

In short, it would count as a real stunner if the Rays won the bidding for one of the winter’s most sought-after free agents.  However, it is worth noting that we’re only about a year removed from the Rays’ reported offer to Freddie Freeman, another big-ticket name on the open market.  Between the Freeman offer and the Franco extension, there have been some hints out of Tampa Bay that the Rays are prepared to stretch their budget (by their standards) in order to capture that elusive championship.  The Rays have reached the postseason in each of the last four years and made it as far as the World Series in 2020, but fell short to the Dodgers in six games.

Assuming Nimmo did sign for around $22MM in average annual value, such a deal would take Tampa Bay’s payroll into a new stratosphere, though the team has already broken some of their own financial benchmarks.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2022 was just shy of $83.9MM, a new club record.  Roster Resource projects Tampa for a 2023 payroll of roughly $67.7MM, and that number includes the projected salaries of a still-large class of arbitration-eligible players.

The Rays have already parted ways with some arb-eligibles (i.e. Ji-Man Choi, Ryan Yarbrough) to save some dollars, and any number of other creative trades could still be possible to further shed payroll.  Tampa could continue to shop more members of their arbitration class, or the team could look into moving players on guaranteed contracts.  Franco isn’t going anywhere, but any of Manuel Margot, Brooks Raley, Tyler Glasnow, or even Brandon Lowe could be plausible trade chips.

Moving an established player to bring in a more expensive player like Nimmo would be an uncharacteristic move for the Rays, yet it could make sense in this circumstance.  Nimmo would essentially be Margot’s replacement in the outfield, and Raley or Glasnow could be replaced by one of the many young arms from Tampa’s seemingly endless pitching pipeline.  The Rays already did well without Lowe for much of the 2022 season, as Lowe played in only 65 games due to ongoing back problems.  If Lowe was traded, the Rays could rely on some combination of Taylor Walls, Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, or Vidal Brujan at second base, as they did last season.  Plus, top prospect Curtis Mead is waiting in the wings for his Major League debut.

The Rays relied on their pitching and defense to win 86 games and claim a Wild Card berth last season, but Nimmo’s bat would greatly help a lackluster offense.  Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 with 16 home runs over 673 plate appearances last season, which translated to a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR.  No Rays position player in 2022 had a higher fWAR than Yandy Diaz’s 3.8 number, and only Diaz (146) had a better wRC+.  The left-handed hitting Nimmo even helps from a lineup balance perspective, since Tampa’s lineup is mostly right-handed.

An argument can be made that if the Rays were going to splurge on a player, it should be for someone without Nimmo’s checkered injury history.  There is some irony in Tampa Bay pursuing an oft-injured center fielder just as Kevin Kiermaier is finally off the team’s books.  Kiermaier’s six-year, $53.5MM extension was also one of the larger deals in Rays history, and while Kiermaier was only rarely in Nimmo’s league as a hitter, Kiermaier was one of the league’s best fielders at any position when he was healthy enough to stay on the field.  The public metrics are a little more mixed on Nimmo’s work in center field, though Tampa could use him in any of the three outfield positions, since Jose Siri is on hand to play center.

Angels Sign Jacob Webb To Minors Contract

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The Angels have agreed to sign right-hander Jacob Webb to a minor league contract, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  Webb became a free agent after spending much of the 2022 season with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate.

Webb was an 18th-round pick for the Braves in the 2014 draft, and he has spent his entire career in Atlanta’s organization apart from a brief stint with the Diamondbacks last season.  The D’Backs claimed Webb off waivers in April, and he made six appearances at Triple-A and some time on the Major League roster (without appearing in a game) before the Braves re-acquired Webb back in a trade last June.

Injuries hampered Webb last season, and he had only a 6.06 ERA over 35 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level with the Braves’ and Diamondbacks’ top affiliates.  He didn’t pitch at all at the MLB level, after posting a 2.47 ERA in 76 2/3 frames for Atlanta in parts of the 2019-21 seasons, topping out at 34 1/3 frames in 2021.  Webb also pitched 1 2/3 innings during the NLCS, and earned a World Series ring for his role in Atlanta’s championship season.

Despite that 2.47 ERA, Webb’s 4.28 SIERA and modest 21.9% strikeout rate perhaps better reflect why the Braves first parted ways with him a year ago, and he also had a checkered injury history.  Still, there isn’t much risk for the Angels in taking a look at Webb in camp and seeing if he can compete for a bullpen job.  As Murray notes, Webb is a known quantity to Angels GM Perry Minasian, who worked in Atlanta’s front office from 2017-20 before being hired by Los Angeles.

Though Webb doesn’t record a ton of strikeouts, he does have some swing-and-miss in his game, with an impressive 13.8% swinging-strike rate over his brief MLB career.  If he can continue to miss bats, generate soft contact and (perhaps most importantly) stay healthy, Webb might end up being a nice under-the-radar pickup for the Angels.

KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes Sign Ariel Jurado

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The Kiwoom Heroes have signed right-hander Ariel Jurado to a one-year contract worth $850K in guaranteed salary, with another $150K available in incentives.  (Hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net.)  After nine seasons in affiliated North American baseball, Jurado will try to jumpstart his career in the Korea Baseball Organization.

It was almost exactly ten years ago that Jurado began his pro career as an international signing for the Rangers, and he worked away in the farm system before finally making his MLB debut in 2018.  Baseball Prospectus even ranked Jurado as the 72nd-best prospect in the sport prior to the 2017 season, though once Jurado made it to the Show, he posted only a 5.97 ERA over 181 innings with the Rangers and Mets from 2018-20.  The Mets acquired the righty from Texas in August 2020, then non-tendered him after the season.

Jurado’s career was then put on hold due to Tommy John surgery, and he missed the entire 2021 season in recovery.  Catching on with the Twins on a minor league deal last winter, Jurado posted a 3.54 ERA over 53 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level in 2022, with his typical low-strikeout (21.5%) and grounder-heavy (51.8%) approach.

Jurado worked as both a starter and long reliever with Triple-A St. Paul, with most of his starts coming later in the season after he had gotten more stretched out after his long layoff.  It’s fair to assume he will look to keep starting in the KBO League, and hope to pitch well for the Heroes and perhaps attract future attention from Major League scouts.  Jurado doesn’t even turn 27 until January, so there’s plenty of time for him to rebuild some value in South Korea and then explore a potential move back to the big leagues.

Willy Adames “Had Conversations” With Brewers About Contract Extension

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Willy Adames is eligible for free agency after the 2024 season, but he has been vocal about wanting to keep playing with the Brewers.  To that end, Adames told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy that the two sides have “had conversations” about a possible longer-term deal, and that “I let them know that obviously I want to stay” in Milwaukee.

“I’m always open to listen to what they’re thinking, and if it’s something that’s good for both sides, I’m open to it,” Adames said.  “I let my agent handle that.  I love it here, I feel good here, I feel comfortable here and I wish I could stay here the rest of my career.”

The exact timing of these talks isn’t known, though they did take place at some point before David Stearns stepped down as the Brewers’ president of baseball operations in late October.  The nature or extent of the negotiations also isn’t known, such as whether the front office and Adames’ agents at CAA Sports had only some broad discussions of Adames’ future, or if they actually exchanged some numbers or floated contract scenarios.

The fact that Stearns is no longer running baseball operations could also be a factor in any future negotiations, though Stearns remains with the Brewers as an advisor, and it isn’t yet clear how things might change in Milwaukee now that GM Matt Arnold has the reins in the front office.  While the Brew Crew has opened up some payroll space in declining Brad Boxberger’s club option, waiving Brent Suter, and trading Hunter Renfroe to the Angels, these moves aren’t necessarily indicative of a rebuild.  The Brewers have routinely looked to maintain a modest payroll while also making less-heralded and less-expensive moves to keep the team competitive.

Extensions have also been part of the strategy, with Christian Yelich’s seven-year, $188.5MM deal standing out as far and away the biggest contract in franchise history.  More recent deals for Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby were much more modest, and looked to lock up some cost certainty on both pitchers earlier in their careers, whereas Yelich already had an NL MVP Award and an MVP runner-up on his resume at the time of his extension.  Yelich was also playing on a previous extension signed back during his days as a member of the Marlins.

Adames represents something of a middle ground between Yelich and Peralta/Ashby, even if a contract extension would certainly be closer to Yelich’s numbers.  The shortstop turned 27 last September, so Adames will be entering his age-29 season if he does hit the open market following the 2024 campaign.  Adames earned $4.6MM in 2022 (his first year of arbitration eligibility), and is projected to exactly double that figure to a $9.2MM salary in 2023.

Trying to pick a comp for Adames is a little difficult at this point, since such free agent shortstops as Carlos Correa, Trea Turner (also a CAA client), Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson are all likely to reset the market with their new contracts.  Since most extension talks don’t take place until Spring Training anyway, Adames’ representatives will likely wait and see how the “big four” shortstops fare before exploring what Adames could earn on a long-term deal.

Adames has delivered plenty of pop throughout his career, especially after being traded from the Rays to the Brewers early in the 2021 season.  The shortstop has hit .256/.325/.483 with 51 homers over 1030 plate appearances in a Brewers uniform, and over his career as a whole, Adames has a 111 wRC+ — a solid number for any player, but particularly from the shortstop position.  Adames has also performed well in the field since the start of the 2019 season, at least in the view of the Defensive Runs Saved (+20) and UZR/150 (+2.9) metrics.  The Outs Above Average metric was much more down on Adames before 2022, when he suddenly posted a +10 OAA.

There is some sense that Adames might yet have more offensive potential in him, especially if he can translate his hard contract into more hits.  Adames had elite barrel-rate metrics in 2022 and an above-average hard-hit ball rate, though he hit only .238 with a .298 on-base percentage.  As he told McCalvy, “I don’t even know how to feel about my numbers.  It’s weird.  Obviously, I want to be more consistent next year and just try to eliminate those long slumps and just be better.”

Adames’ walk rate has fluctuated over the years, dipping to a below-average 7.9% in 2022.  But, the biggest fix for Adames would be to correct some of the swing-and-miss in his game.  Since making his MLB debut in 2018, only 31 qualified players in all of baseball have a higher strikeout rate than Adames’ 28.2% career number.  This is the kind of stat that could give the Brewers some pause in deciding whether or not to extend Adames, if the team’s payroll situation wasn’t already an obstacle.

Yelich’s salary will alone take up a significant chunk of Milwaukee’s future expenditures, and the Brewers also have to consider whether Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff might be extension candidates.  Both All-Star pitchers are also set for free agency after the 2024 season, though recent reports suggest that the Brewers aren’t looking to trade either Burnes or Woodruff for salary relief just yet.  It could be that the Brew Crew keeps Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames all in the fold through 2023 to take another shot at contention, and then some tougher decisions could be saved until next winter.

Waiting would also give the Brewers more time to evaluate whether or not they have a successor on hand for Adames at shortstop.  2022 first-round pick Eric Brown just completed his first year of pro ball, and Brice Turang (a first-round in the 2018 draft) is expected to make his MLB debut sometime next season.  Turang is considered to be a capable shortstop, but he might break into the Show as a second baseman or perhaps an outfielder, depending on the Brewers’ needs at either position.

2022-23 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is in the books for another year, as we’ve now completed all 30 of our previews of what each team might have in store for their winter transactions. A new feature also debuted this year — a live chat devoted to every club, so fans could contribute to the discussion about their favorite team’s offseason. This post contains the full sets of links to each Outlook post, and transcripts of the reader chats.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets

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The Yankees are certainly hoping they’ll be able to re-sign Aaron Judge, but until the AL MVP makes his decision, the Yankees are considering several other free agents and trade targets.  In addition to some names already linked to New York in past reports, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees have checked in on the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, and their own incumbent free agents Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi.

In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player.  As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere.  For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract.  Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.

Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts).  Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix.  DJ LeMahieu’s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.

If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place.  However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ’on different tracks’ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players.  Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.

Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon.  While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.

The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold.  Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five.  Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues.  Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.

Twins Re-Sign Elliot Soto To Minor League Deal

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The Twins have signed infielder Elliot Soto to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He will presumably get an invite to major league Spring Training, though that hasn’t been officially announced.

Soto, 33, signs with the Twins on a minor league deal for the second straight season. In 2022, he got selected to the 40-man roster in June but was designated for assignment a day later without getting into a game. Over 92 games in Triple-A, he hit .223/.320/.342. That production was 19% below league average, as evidenced by his 81 wRC+, but Soto has long been considered a glove-first player. Since he didn’t get into an MLB game this year, his major league résumé remains very slim. He got into three games with the Angels in 2020 and hasn’t made it back into a big league game since.

Minnesota’s infield picture is uncertain at the moment, with shortstop Carlos Correa opting out of his contract to become a free agent and third baseman Gio Urshela having been dealt to the Angels. They are reportedly making an attempt to lure Correa back and also acquired Kyle Farmer as a safety net in case they can’t succeed in that effort. For now, they have Farmer at short, Jorge Polanco at second, Jose Miranda likely at third and Luis Arraez at first. Nick Gordon can play second but also the outfield, then there’s also the wild card that is Royce Lewis, who will be coming back from surgery on a right ACL that he’s torn for a second time. Injuries have been a running problem for the Twins and Soto will give them an sure-handed depth option in Triple-A if they need it. He’s capable of playing anywhere on the infield and has even moved to the outfield on occasion.

Craig Stammen Plans To Pitch In 2023

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Right-hander Craig Stammen is a free agent and will turn 39 years old in March. However, that doesn’t mean he’s hanging up his spikes. “I just love playing,” Stammen tells Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. “I wasn’t ready. I want to go out a little better than I went out last year. I’m going to try to give it another go.”

Stammen has been a mainstay of the bullpen in San Diego over the past six years. In the four full seasons from 2017 to 2021, he logged at least 79 innings in each campaign and kept his ERA between 2.73 and 3.29. He doesn’t generally get huge strikeout totals, but he does induce a lot of ground balls and limits free passes. He hasn’t had a walk rate above 5.6% since 2017 and has posted a ground ball rate of 45% or higher in each season of his career.

He seemed on track for another solid year in 2022 before a shoulder injury got in the way. He had a 3.34 ERA through 32 1/3 innings when he went on the IL in July due to right shoulder inflammation. He missed about two months, returning to the team in September, but didn’t finish strong. He logged another 8 1/3 innings down the stretch but posted an 8.64 ERA in that time.

It’s possible that he was still dealing with some lingering effects of the injury or was perhaps just rusty after the absence. Stammen himself doesn’t seem to think so, however. “I felt great at the end of the season,” Stammen said. “I’ve continued to throw. … I feel too good to not keep playing.”

It’s possible that Stammen returns to the Padres club he’s been with for the past six years, but Acee also notes that Stammen has begun the process of speaking to other teams. The free agent market for relievers has been robust in the early parts of this offseason, with Edwin Diaz getting $102MM over five years, Robert Suarez getting $46MM over five years and Rafael Montero getting $34.5MM over three. Not all teams will want to spend at that level, however, and some will inevitably look to other options. The last time Stammen was a free agent was going into 2020, when he and the Padres agreed to a two-year deal with a $9MM guarantee and a club option for 2022 that they eventually exercised. Based on Stammen’s age and shoulder injury, he will likely be limited to one-year deals this time around.

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