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Cubs Injury Notes: Canario, Davis, Amaya

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Cubs outfield prospect Alexander Canario suffered a badly fractured ankle and a dislocated shoulder during a Dominican Winter League game on Thursday, according to multiple sources (including reporter Arturo Bisono).  While trying to beat out a grounder, Canario awkwardly stepped on the bag and then fell to the ground in obvious pain.

It would seem like Canario will face a substantial amount of recovery time, though no timeline has yet been announced by the Cubs.  This is the second notable shoulder injury of Canario’s short career, as he also had surgery to fix a torn labrum in November 2020.  Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and then the recovery from his surgery, it isn’t surprising that Canario had modest numbers in 2021, playing with both the Giants’ A-ball affiliate and the Cubs’ high-A team.

Acquired from San Francisco as part of the Kris Bryant trade in 2021, the 22-year-old Canario hit .252/.343/.556 with 37 homers and 23 steals (from 26 chances) over 534 combined plate appearances at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels last season.  This excellent performance sent Canario within the top 10 of Chicago prospects, as per both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.  It also put Canario on the radar of several rival teams scouting the Cubs as possible trade partners, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, but Canario’s status as a trade chip or as a possible difference-maker in Wrigleyville is now on hold until his recovers.

Brennen Davis has also been sidelined by injury, as lower back tightness limited him to just five games in the Arizona Fall League before the Cubs shut him down.  Sharma writes that the club hadn’t determined the nature of this new injury, but it doesn’t seem similar to the problem (a vascular formation on his sciatic nerve) that required Davis to undergo back surgery in June.

A consensus pick as Chicago’s second-best prospect and a top-50 prospect in all of baseball, Davis has hit .255/.363/.444 over 906 professional PA since being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft.  Multiple injuries have slowed Davis’ progress, as beyond his back surgery, Davis has also had to recover from a concussion and broken nose (after being hit by a pitch during Spring Training), as well as finger injuries in 2019.

Despite all these setbacks, Davis was still moving up the minor league ladder and playing well, before his back problems led to a down year in 2022 and a probable promotion to the majors.  Sharma notes that the Cubs are still expected to place Davis on the 40-man roster this winter, since even with the back concerns, he would surely be taken in the Rule 5 Draft.

Miguel Amaya was placed on the 40-man back in November 2019, yet the catching prospect has barely played in the following three years.  Beyond the canceled 2020 minors season, Amaya was limited to 23 games in 2021 and then 40 games in 2022 due largely to a forearm strain that resulted in Tommy John surgery.  Once Amaya made it back this season, he was limited to DH duty, and then his path back to catching was halted when he suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot in mid-September.

“My offseason focus is to be the best version of me for 2023, and whatever happens, happens,” Amaya told Mark Gonzales of The Chicago Sun-Times.  “I just want to be healthy to show everyone who Miguel Amaya is and just have fun and play the baseball I know.”

Amaya has been limited to shoulder and elbow exercises while his foot heals, and while he hasn’t much recent contact with Willson Contreras, Amaya also cited the veteran catcher as an important mentor during his development.  In theory, Amaya might’ve already established himself as Contreras’ replacement if healthy, as Contreras is headed into free agency this winter.  A top-100 prospect prior to his Tommy John surgery, Amaya might be a factor for the big league roster later in 2023, though he has only 51 games at the Double-A level and nothing in Triple-A.

White Sox No Longer Considering Joe Espada In Managerial Search

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Astros bench coach Joe Espada is no longer a candidate to become the next White Sox manager, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin reports.  Espada was reportedly a finalist for the Marlins’ job before Miami hired Skip Schumaker earlier this week, and he hasn’t been linked to the Royals, the only other team still looking for a new manager.  As a result, it looks like Espada will again come up short in a bid for his first Major League managerial job, after previously being considered by such teams as the Mets, Giants, Athletics, Twins, and Cubs over the last few seasons.

The 47-year-old Espada has been Houston’s bench coach for the last five seasons, the Yankees’ third base coach/infield coach from 2015-17, and the Marlins’ third base coach from 2010-13.  Prior to his first big league posting, Espada also worked as a coach and coordinator for several years in the Marlins farm system.  There has been speculation that the Astros might’ve been grooming Espada to step into their managerial post if Dusty Baker wasn’t retained or if the 73-year-old Baker decided to retire, but since Houston is reportedly interested in bringing Baker back in 2023, Espada might have to wait at least one more year if the Astros job is indeed a possibility.

Espada, Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, and former White Sox and Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen are the only candidates confirmed to have interviewed for the White Sox job.  Reports surfaced last week that the Sox had interest in speaking with Guillen about a possible return, and NBC Sports Chicago’s Chuck Garfien reported that Guillen’s interview took place last Monday.

Beyond that trio, interim manager Miguel Cairo and Braves third base coach Ron Washington were also known to be under consideration, though it isn’t known if the Sox have actually spoken with either candidate.  One would imagine Cairo has already met with the team at some point in the last few weeks, since as Merkin notes, White Sox GM Rick Hahn said during his season wrap-up press conference on October 3 that Cairo would get an interview.

With this uncertainty still surrounding the search, it isn’t known if the White Sox have any other interviews lined up, or if they’re approaching any sort of “finalist” stage.  It is possible the Sox might be waiting until the World Series is over (or at least for the Series’ scheduled off-days on October 30 or November 3) to make an official announcement, if they are indeed close to a decision.

Rob Manfred: “I’m Not Positive” About Athletics’ Chances Of Remaining In Oakland

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9:00PM: Schaaf addressed Manfred’s comments in a statement to the media (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle), saying “I appreciate Commissioner Manfred’s kind words about my role as champion of a new waterfront ballpark for our Oakland A’s.  I spoke with him today and assured him that I remain absolutely confident our deal in Oakland will get done next year even with new leadership in place.  The A’s are continuing to invest tremendous resources into an Oakland deal.  We are working together every day to realize our shared vision for a vibrant waterfront neighborhood with public parks, good jobs, affordable housing and an iconic home for our Oakland A’s.”

5:10PM: Rob Manfred discussed a variety of topics in an interview with Chris Russo on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM yesterday, including the commissioner’s latest thoughts on the Athletics’ and Rays’ ongoing attempts to build new ballparks (and thus remaining in their current cities or markets).  Since the Athletics’ lease at the RingCentral Coliseum is up after the 2024 season, there is more of a ticking clock to determine their fate, whether the result is the A’s staying in Oakland at the long-gestating Howard Terminal site, or perhaps moving to a new city altogether.

While some steps have been taken this year towards getting the Howard Terminal project off the ground, quite a number of logistical and financial hurdles remain, as outlined last month by Sarah Ravani of the San Francisco Chronicle.  As a result, Manfred is “not positive” about the chances of the A’s staying put: “I think the mayor in Oakland has made a huge effort to try to get it done in Oakland.  It just doesn’t look like it’s going to happen….Something has to happen. We can’t go five more years in the Coliseum.”

Mayor Libby Schaaf is nearing the end of her second term in office, and is ineligible to run again in the upcoming Oakland mayoral election on November 8.  The Athletics’ ballpark proposal (and, more importantly, what civic funds will be involved in the construction process) is only one of several major issues facing Oakland voters, and it is possible an incoming administration might have a differing view on the project altogether.

Oakland mayoral candidate and current city councilor Loren Taylor told NBC Sports Bay Area’s Angelina Martin that “we have a number of points that still need to be worked out before a final decision, not the least of which is the gap on infrastructure [costs] offsite”  In regards to the lack of fresh information about the ballpark, Taylor notes that “by some accounts, maybe less noise outside means that we’re getting more work done behind closed doors.”

This is far from the first time that Manfred has publicly weighed in about the A’s and their quest for a new stadium, and even the new Collective Bargaining Agreement contained language concerning the Athletics’ ballpark as a factor in their status as a revenue-sharing recipient.  Manfred’s statements to Russo could certainly be interpreted as some public pressure on Oakland city leaders, in addition to simply being the commissioner’s personal opinion on how the situation will play out.

“Given the lack of pace in Oakland, I think [the A’s] have to look for an alternative,” Manfred said, in regards to how the team has been looking into Las Vegas in particular as a possible new destination.  However, Manfred was more bullish on the Rays’ chances of remaining, saying that “Tampa’s a viable Major League market” in need of “a properly located facility.”

“I see Tampa differently….I’ve got a lot of faith in [Rays owner] Stu Sternberg.  I think they will find a place to get a ballpark built and I think baseball can thrive in Tampa,” Manfred said.

Last winter, MLB’s Executive Council rejected the Rays’ proposal to split time between Montreal and the Tampa area, ending the most unusual of the many ballpark plans floated by the Rays as they look for an alternative to Tropicana Field.  These plans have included the exploration of sites in both Tampa and St. Petersburg, ranging from waterfront ballpark concepts to a new stadium (and a “ballpark village” shopping/business/restaurant/housing district) on the Tropicana Field grounds.  There is a little more time for the Rays to figure something out, as their next at the Trop isn’t up until the end of the 2027 season.

Royals Considering Will Venable For Managerial Job

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Red Sox bench coach/outfield instructor Will Venable is one of the candidates to be the Royals’ new manager, according to The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.  Venable is a new addition to a field known to include several internal candidates (K.C. bench coach Pedro Grifol, third base coach Vance Wilson and Triple-A manager Scott Thorman) as well as Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough.

It is possible other names are still under consideration, though it does seem like the Royals might be nearing the final stages of their search, as Heyman writes that “Quatraro has been seen as the favorite” and past reports have suggested McCullough as a finalist.  Phillies third base coach Dusty Wathan also interviewed with the Royals but is now out of the running after signing a contract extension to remain in Philadelphia.

Venable (who celebrates his 40th birthday today) is known by most fans for his nine-year playing career, which saw him suit up for eight seasons with the Padres and brief stints with the Rangers and Dodgers from 2008-16.  Moving almost directly into a new role as a coach, Venable was on the Cubs’ staff from 2018-20 as a first base and third base coach, and then took his current role as Alex Cora’s right-hand man prior to the 2021 season.

With more teams frequently looking to hire younger managers only recently removed from their playing days, Venable has been a popular interview candidate for the last few cycles’ worth of managerial searches.  The Athletics, Giants, Astros, and Tigers all spoke with Venable in regards to recent openings in the dugout, and the Red Sox themselves interviewed Venable for the manager’s job before re-hiring Cora, though the Sox were obviously still impressed enough to bring Venable on board as bench coach.

Of the six known candidates in the Royals’ search, none have previously worked as a Major League manager on anything more than a fill-in basis.  (For instance, Venable served as Boston’s manager for a few games earlier this season when Cora was sidelined with COVID-19.)  Barring any other experienced skippers surfacing in the search, it would appear as though new Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo is favoring a first-time manager as the replacement for Mike Matheny.

Dodgers Interested In Carlos Correa

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After being eliminated from the postseason in 5 games by the division rival Padres, the Dodgers have turned their focus to the offseason earlier than expected coming off a 111-win campaign. This offseason is sure to be a significant one for the Dodgers, as Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Joey Gallo, and Craig Kimbrel are among their players who will test free agency this offseason, with it also being possible that Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger depart in the event that the Dodgers decline Turner’s club option and non-tender Bellinger.

Even with so much potential roster churn this offseason, shortstop appears to be the biggest question mark for LA headed into 2023 given Turner’s pending free agency. Even as Jon Heyman of the New York Post and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya both mention Turner’s willingness to sign with the club long term, Heyman mentions that the Dodgers “appear to have landed on” Carlos Correa as their preferred replacement for Turner in free agency while Ardaya notes that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been non-committal about continuing to spend well above the luxury tax going forward and has mentioned a desire to integrate the talent LA has at the upper levels of its farm system into the 2023 big league club.

As Ardaya notes, however, Jacob Amaya is the only shortstop in that group of upper-minors talent Friedman noted, and he was below average offensively at Triple-A this season, slashing just .259/.368/.381 across 84 games in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast League. Thus, it’s worth looking more closely at the fit between Correa and the Dodgers.

At first glance, Correa may seem to be Turner’s equal or superior in most regards. Correa’s .291/.366/.467 slash line in 2022 shows him to have slightly outproduced Turner on a rate basis this season, as Turner slashed a slightly less impressive .298/.343/.466. Looking under the hood, it would also appear that Turner has more luck baked into his numbers this season than Correa, with Turner’s wOBA of .350 slightly outpacing his xwOBA of .335, whereas Correa’s .362 wOBA is a near match for his .363 xwOBA. In addition to comparing favorably to Turner with the bat, Correa’s reputation with the glove far outstrips that of Turner, as Correa has frequently rated well with defensive metrics throughout his career and even won the Platinum Glove in the AL last season.

Correa is also a bit over a year younger than Turner, who will celebrate his 30th birthday next June. That age gap should mean that Correa will project more favorably going forward than Turner. The Dodgers may also have interest in Correa due to his track record in the playoffs. After 334 trips to the plate during the postseason, Correa has posted identical marks of 130 wRC+ in both regular and postseason play, whereas Turner has managed a wRC+ of just 62 across his 197 postseason plate appearances.

Despite all these points in Correa’s favor, the comparison between him and Turner is far from cut-and-dry. While defensive metrics have significantly favored Correa in the past, they’ve soured on him in 2022, with OAA in particular strongly preferring Turner to Correa this past season. Turner is also among the best baserunners in the league, having swiped 230 bases in his career, including 27 in 2022. Correa, meanwhile, was caught stealing in his only 2022 attempt, and has rated negatively according to Fangraphs’s baserunning metric in each of the past three years.

Additionally, while Turner is a year older than Correa, he’s also been far more reliable in terms of staying on the field throughout his career. Turner has made just two trips to the injured list since the start of the 2018 season, while Correa had that many stints on the IL in 2022 alone. 2017 represents the only year of Turner’s career where he spent significant time on the IL, whereas Correa has spent significant time on the IL in 2017 and 2019 in addition to shorter stints each of the past two seasons. Even in a mostly healthy 2022 season, Correa took 118 less trips to the plate than Turner, whose 708 plate appearances were tied for second in all of baseball this season.

Correa and Turner aren’t the only options for the Dodgers this offseason, however. Of course, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts are expected to join Correa and Turner at the top of the free agent shortstop class this offseason, so it’s also feasible the Dodgers could explore signing either of them. Ardaya suggests that LA could look to utilize their farm system depth to explore the trade market in search of their new shortstop, and mentions Milwaukee’s Willy Adames as a possibility. Speculatively speaking, swinging a trade for a lower-cost option at shortstop could leave payroll space open for a potential pursuit of Aaron Judge, who the Dodgers have previously been reported to have interest in.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets threw a lot of money last offseason, which got them into the postseason in 2022. But after losing their first-round matchup to the Padres, they are now about to see a huge chunk of their roster head to free agency. That means they might have to keep the wallet open if they want to take another shot in 2023.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Francisco Lindor, SS: $306.9MM through 2031. $50MM of his extension was deferred and will be paid out in $5MM installments from 2032-2041.
  • Max Scherzer, SP: $86.667 through 2024. Scherzer can opt out after 2023.
  • Starling Marte, OF: $62.25MM through 2025.
  • Jacob deGrom, SP: $34.5MM through 2023 plus $32.5MM club option for 2024. deGrom can opt out after 2022. Some deferred money to be paid out starting in 2035.
  • James McCann, C: $24MM through 2024.
  • Mark Canha, OF: $12.5MM through 2023, including $2MM buyout on $11.5MM club option for 2024.
  • Eduardo Escobar, IF: $10MM through 2023, including $500K buyout on $9MM club option for 2024.
  • Darin Ruf, IF/OF: $3.25MM through 2023, including $250K buyout on $3.5MM club option for 2024.
  • Robinson Cano, IF: $24MM through 2023. Cano was released in 2022 and is now a free agent, but the Mets are still on the hook for the last year of his deal.

Total 2023 commitments: $182.4MM, assuming deGrom opts out.
Total future commitments: $564.067MM, assuming deGrom opts out.

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Fans have long called for the Mets to act like a big market team, and it finally happened this year. The second year under owner Steve Cohen, the club gave out four big free agent deals last winter, signing Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. All four of those players got eight-figure contracts, with Scherzer getting into nine figures on a three-year deal that set a new record for average annual value.

When combined with the contracts already on the books, the Mets ended up with an Opening Day payroll of just under $265MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was more than $100MM more than anything they’d done in the pre-Cohen era and an increase of about $70MM on Cohen’s first season in charge. In terms of the luxury tax, which is calculated based on the AAV of contracts and not the 2022 salaries, the Mets were much higher. Ronald Blum of The Associated Press reported that the Mets finished 2022 with a Competitive Balance Tax number of $298.8MM, leading to a tax bill of $29.9MM.

All of that spending translated into quality on-the-field results, for the most part. The Mets led the NL East for the majority of the season, finishing with a record of 101-61. That was the second-highest win total in franchise history, eclipsed only by the 108 wins of the 1986 squad. Unfortunately, the Braves got red hot in the second half and also managed to get to 101 wins, sneaking past the Mets to the divisional title on a tiebreaker. The Mets still nabbed the top NL Wild Card spot, qualifying for the postseason for the first time since 2016. Unfortunately, they were dispatched by the Padres in the best-of-three Wild Card series.

On the heels of that disappointing finish, the club will now be thinking about how to put together a team for 2023. It’s possible that there will be a high amount of turnover, especially on the pitching staff, leading to the roster looking very different next year. In terms of the starting rotation, the Mets had six guys who made more than 10 starts in 2022, four of whom are now likely to become free agents. Jacob deGrom has long maintained that he intends to trigger his opt-out provision once the offseason begins, even when he was injured and his status was questionable. Chris Bassitt has a mutual option, with those deals almost never triggered by both parties. Taijuan Walker has a $7.5MM player option but with a hefty $3MM buyout. He should take the latter and leave $4.5MM on the table, but then easily eclipse that in free agency. Carlos Carrasco can be retained via a club option, which is a bit risky given that he hasn’t stayed healthy enough to pitch more than 152 innings since 2018. However, given the potential for so many losses, the Mets will likely keep him around.

Assuming the Mets do indeed decide to keep Carrasco, he will slot into the rotation next to Max Scherzer, who will enter the second year of his deal, and David Peterson, who has not yet reached arbitration but could qualify this year depending on where the Super Two cutoff ends up. There are some in-house options to fill out the backend, such as Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, but the Mets will certainly look to make additions here.

Whether deGrom can be lured back to Queens will likely be a story that dominates the headlines until it’s resolved. He reportedly has a preference to be closer to his family home in Florida, though it’s unlikely that would be strong enough for him to accept significantly smaller deals than he would find elsewhere. He will still need to be paid something resembling his market value. The Mets have shown they are willing to spend big on the players they want, but deGrom will turn 35 in June and is likely looking at deals somewhat similar to the short-term, high AAV contract that Scherzer got. Even if they are willing to spend, would the Mets want around $80-90MM devoted to just two pitchers?

If the Mets decide to let deGrom go, there will be plenty of other options. Carlos Rodon will be one of the most sought-after pitchers this winter, though he is much younger, about to turn 30. That means he will likely be seeking a longer pact but with a lower AAV than deGrom, which might be more appetizing to the Mets. The tier below Rodon will feature many pitchers who are quite good, though not quite at that ace level. Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Anderson, Kodai Senga, Mike Clevinger, Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha are just some of the names in this bracket, which also includes old friend Chris Bassitt. It’s possible the Mets would prefer to spread some money around to a few guys at this level, as opposed to putting all of their eggs into an ace basket. Given the high amount of turnover that’s possible, there would be an argument for taking this approach.

Speaking of turnover, how about this bullpen? Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter are all heading into the open market this winter. Mychal Givens has a mutual option and will likely be joining them. That leaves the Mets with Drew Smith as the only guy who threw more than 25 innings in 2022 to still be around. Though there are some other arms around, they are better suited to depth options. That means the Mets will effectively be looking to rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch this winter. Much of the attention will be on Edwin Diaz, given that he has established himself as one of the best relievers in the game. However, that also means he will be looking at a huge payday, possibly even becoming the first reliever to crack nine digits. With so many holes in the relief corps, perhaps the Mets will look to spread some money around to a handful of different arms instead of focusing on a lockdown closer.

If there’s one thing working in the Mets’ favor this winter, it’s that the position player core is much more stable. Outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Tyler Naquin are headed for free agency, but the whole gang will be coming back apart from that. The losses of Nimmo and Naquin will certainly hurt the club’s outfield depth, but they still have options there. Marte could slide over from right field and take over Nimmo’s center field duties. Canha can be pencilled into one corner. Jeff McNeil has split his time between the infield and outfield but could spend more time on the grass going forward. Dominic Smith is still under club control and could get the playing time he was lacking in 2022, though he could also be non-tendered after a down year. That’s a serviceable group, though the Mets could certainly look to bolster it, either by re-signing Nimmo or acquiring someone else. Nimmo won’t be cheap, however, as he’s clearly the best center field option on the market this year and many teams have a need for such a player. Given the free spending of the Cohen era, some fans might dream of the Mets plucking Aaron Judge from the Bronx and placing him in Queens. But given the multiple areas of need, it’s possible they look to cheaper options like Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger or Michael Brantley.

On the infield, there are a few locks and a few maybes. Francisco Lindor will be the shortstop and Pete Alonso will be at first base. Eduardo Escobar and Luis Guillorme are the most obvious first for third and second base, respectively, though there are some other routes the club could take. If they do end up signing an outfielder, it would free McNeil up to stay on the dirt. There are also youngsters to consider, as Mark Vientos and Brett Baty both made their MLB debuts in 2022. Neither of them excelled in their brief MLB appearances, but each of them has crushed minor league pitching. If the Mets are willing to roll the dice on one of those two holding down the hot corner, perhaps they could try flipping Escobar to help fill in the gaps on the pitching staff.

There’s one other area where the youth factor will come into play. Behind the plate, James McCann was gradually eclipsed by Tomas Nido throughout 2022. The Mets also promoted Francisco Alvarez late in the year, who is considered by some evaluators to be the best prospect in the league at the moment. He’s still quite young, about to turn 21, and has played just 50 games above the Double-A level. He’s hit everywhere he goes but his defense is considered to be a bit behind his bat. The Mets could start him in Triple-A in 2023 while he continues to develop, but they could also be bold and pave the way for him. McCann’s contract is underwater at this point, after two consecutive poor seasons and two years left to go. But if the Mets are willing to eat some money, perhaps they can find a taker and let Alvarez spread his wings and fly.

Ultimately, how the Mets approach these different areas will depend on the budget. The high amount of roster turnover creates challenges but also frees up some spending room. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s 2023 payroll at $231MM and CBT number at $238MM, though deGrom’s opt out and a non-tender of Smith would drop those by almost $40MM. Exercising Carrasco’s option would add $11MM and put the club just over $200MM in terms of real pa. General manager Billy Eppler spoke with the media recently and said he doesn’t anticipate any kind of budget cuts this year, though he didn’t provide any kind of specific target number. If they decide to go into 2023 with a payroll similar to the $265MM Opening Day figure they had here in 2022, that could leave them with around $60MM to spend.

That’s a decent chunk of change, though the Mets have many holes that need filling. They need at least one starting pitcher, perhaps two, along with an entire bullpen. Adding another outfielder makes sense. deGrom alone is likely to pass $40MM in terms of the AAV on his deal. Nimmo, Bassitt and Diaz will likely be in the $20MM range. Shopping in that aisle will likely require the Mets to increase the payroll closer to $300MM, something that Cohen is apparently open to, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Trading Escobar and McCann to address some of the gaps would help with the financial squeeze, but those moves would also come with the risk of handing prominent roles to unproven prospects. Perhaps the club will avoid the top names on the market and spread their money around to more second-tier free agents. There are many ways that Eppler could approach his second offseason making the baseball decisions for the Mets. But there’s no doubt they will be active one way or another, making them one of the most fascinating franchises to watch yet again.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Mets-centric chat on 10-29-22. Click here to read the transcript.

Red Sox Not Planning To Extend A Qualifying Offer To J.D. Martinez

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The Red Sox are not planning to extend a qualifying offer to veteran slugger J.D. Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman’s report comes at what may be the beginning of an offseason of transition in Boston. With Xander Bogaerts’ opt-out clause looming and extension talks with Rafael Devers having yet to yield any results, Martinez could be one of multiple all-stars whose time in Boston may soon come to an end.

Martinez, age 35, is coming off of his fifth season with Boston, during which he played 139 games and slashed .274/.341/.448. Though Martinez rated as a well above average offensive player by wRC+ (119), his 16 2022 home runs are his fewest in a season since 2013. 2022 was also the first season in Martinez’s career that the five-time all-star did not log a single inning at a defensive position, as Alex Cora used him exclusively as a designated hitter. Martinez ought to have no problem finding employment next season, however. He has been one of the most consistent and productive hitters over the last decade, averaging 26 home runs and a .293 average since 2013.

MLBTR ranks Martinez as the best full-time DH available this offseason. He will headline a DH-class that includes other options such as Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz. Full-time DH’s have reduced earning power compared to other free agents due to their limited defense. The market for this player prototype has the potential to appeal any club looking for a discounted injection of offense without shuffling their defensive alignment. Assured production is paramount when a team decides to commit substantial resources to an offense-only player. Out of the three, Martinez is by far the surest bet. The contrast of Carpenter’s herculean summer with the Yankees and his paltry 2019-2021 leaves uncertainty about in his ability to produce going forward. Carpenter does have the ability to play some defense, however, having lined up at all four corner positions in 2022. Cruz looked ageless until last season, when he experienced substantial drops in hard-contact rate and exit velocity in the midst of his worst offensive season ever as a big league regular.

As the market’s best full-time DH, there ought to be plenty of teams looking to add some thump to their lineup that will consider signing Martinez. Logical suitors may theoretically include the Diamondbacks, who are looking for a right-handed bat, per Heyman, and the Marlins, who plan to address their weak offense this offseason. That being said, any team that may be inclined to add a full-time DH figures to have interest in Martinez on a one or two-year deal with an AAV below the qualifying offer worth $19.65 MM.

It is also possible that Martinez winds up back with Boston, despite the fact that the Red Sox are not planning to extend him a qualifying offer. Chaim Bloom’s decision to not tie draft pick compensation to Martinez’s free agency is likely to be rooted in the Sox’ evaluation of what Martinez could be worth in 2023, as opposed to whether or not they he would like to keep him on Boston’s roster. Martinez has been well worth the 5-year, $110MM deal he signed with the Red Sox in the 2017-2018 offseason and has given every indication that he can still be a productive DH. If Martinez does not receive a qualifying offer, it would indicate Bloom’s unwillingness to pay a full-time DH, albeit a productive one, a salary of $19.65 MM. It could also signify Bloom’s desire to provide consistent opportunity for some of Boston’s core of young first baseman/DH types, like Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas. They also have Eric Hosmer on the roster, though it’s unclear how committed they are to him. With the Padres paying down the majority of his contract, Boston is only on the hook for the league minimum salary and could cut ties if they found options they liked better.

In a postgame interview with NESN’s Jahmai Webster on October 6, Martinez expressed gratitude to his teammates and to Boston fans for their support, adding that he’ll “see what happens” in free agency (via Twitter). If he does wind up back with the Red Sox, it will be interesting to see how close Martinez’s new salary will come to the $19.65 MM figure that the Boston appears unlikely to offer him.

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Starting Pitcher

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MLBTR has gone around the diamond with a position-by-position look at this winter’s free agent class. With all the hitters now covered, we turn our attention to the pitching. This offseason’s starting pitching class features a handful of the game’s highest-upside arms at the top and a seemingly endless supply of back-of-the-rotation innings-eaters beyond them.

Opt-Out Aces

When healthy, deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. His fastball regularly pushes triple-digits, and he backs it up with a power slider that averaged an absurd 92.6 MPH this past season. No pitcher comes close to matching deGrom’s ability to miss bats, and the two-time Cy Young winner has never posted a single-season ERA higher than 3.53. This year’s 3.08 ERA through 64 1/3 frames is actually the second-highest mark of his career, but that’s largely attributable to some late-season homer troubles that aren’t likely to alarm teams. He fanned 42.7% of opposing hitters against just a 3.3% walk percentage.

While there’s no question about deGrom’s performance, he’ll hit the market with some concerns about his durability. He missed over a full calendar year between July 2021 and this past August due to various arm issues. After battling elbow discomfort late last season, he lost the first half of the 2022 campaign to a stress reaction in his scapula (shoulder blade). deGrom returned brandishing the same otherworldly raw stuff and finished the season healthy, but between the truncated 2020 schedule and the various ailments the past two years, he’s made just 38 combined starts since the start of 2020.

Between the injury history and deGrom’s age — he turns 35 next June — it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to top three years on the open market. There’s no question he’ll find one of the loftiest average annual salaries ever, and he’ll have a strong case to top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV for the all-time record. deGrom is a lock to opt out of the $32.5MM remaining on his deal with the Mets before receiving and rejecting a qualifying offer.

Rodon had a breakout 2021 season with the White Sox, pitching to a 2.37 ERA while striking out 34.6% of opponents. He missed a few weeks late that summer with shoulder soreness, though, and his velocity was down a few ticks when he made his return. It earned him an All-Star nod and a fifth-place Cy Young finish, but there seemed enough trepidation about the health of his shoulder he didn’t find a long-term deal to his liking.

The southpaw bet on himself, signing a two-year deal with the Giants that allowed him to opt out after the first season. His season in San Francisco was arguably even better than his final year on the South Side of Chicago. Rodon avoided the injured list (aside from a season-ending stint related to a pre-planned innings limit) and made a career-high 31 starts. Through 178 innings, he posted a 2.88 ERA while punching out more than a third of opponents. His fastball velocity held steady in the 95-96 MPH range, and he got swinging strikes on more than 14% of his offerings for a second straight season.

This time around, Rodon should find the megadeal that eluded him last winter. He’s certain to decline the final $22.5MM on his deal with San Francisco and set out in search of a five-plus year pact that tops the deals awarded to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray a year ago. Rodon will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Giants.

Verlander missed almost two full seasons from 2020-21 working back from Tommy John surgery. The Astros kept close tabs on his rehab and were sufficiently bullish on his outlook to guarantee him $25MM to return for this season. That deal also contained a $25MM player option conditional on reaching 130 innings, but there’s no chance Verlander exercises that. The Astros’ bet on Verlander paid off better than even the club could’ve reasonably expected, as he’s likely headed to a third Cy Young after pitching to a 1.75 ERA over 175 frames.

While his strikeout rate was down a few points relative to his pre-surgery form, Verlander still fanned a strong 27.8% of opponents against a tiny 4.4% walk rate. His fastball velocity was back in the 95 MPH range. He missed a few weeks late in the year with a calf issue but returned to help the Astros to an American League pennant.

It was a remarkable age-39 campaign, and Verlander joins deGrom in hitting the market with a reasonable shot at topping Scherzer’s all-time AAV. He rejected a qualifying offer last offseason and won’t be eligible for another this winter. Verlander is five years older than deGrom and three years older than Scherzer was last winter, making his free agency even more unprecedented than Scherzer’s. Will there be a three-year deal that takes the future Hall of Famer through age-42 and pushes his overall guarantee north of $100MM?

His Own Bucket

The future Hall of Famer is no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but Kershaw still provides ace-caliber production on a rate basis. Signed to a $17MM guarantee to return to Los Angeles last offseason, he responded with a 2.28 ERA through 126 1/3 frames. Kershaw punched out 27.8% of opponents and continued to demonstrate elite command while walking fewer than 5% of batters faced. Even with a fastball that averages just north of 90 MPH, he has no difficulty missing bats in bunches.

Injuries have been problematic for Kershaw in recent years. He ended 2021 on the IL with a forearm issue, and he dealt with back and hip problems this year. He’s not going to make 30+ starts annually at this stage of his career, but few pitchers are as strong a bet for 20 excellent outings. The three-time Cy Young winner has indicated he’s likely to continue pitching in 2023. The Dodgers can technically make him a qualifying offer but appear unlikely to do so as they give him time to weigh his options; they’ll assuredly look to bring him back in free agency.

NPB Star

Senga is an international free agent and will be a Wild Card entrant into this offseason’s class. He’s never played in the majors but has indicated his desire to make the jump from Japan’s NPB to the big leagues. An 11-year member of the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, Senga has a career 2.59 ERA in Japan’s top level. He posted a sterling 1.94 mark through 144 innings this year, striking out an impressive 27.5% of batters faced against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. Teams’ evaluations of Senga figure to vary depending on their scouts’ determination of his arsenal and command projection, but a club that thinks he’s capable of stepping right into the middle of an MLB rotation could have him as the fourth or fifth-best starter on the market.

Mid-Rotation Veterans

Bassitt has been a durable, above-average starter for four straight seasons. He’s posted an ERA of 3.81 or lower every year since 2019, relying on a deep repertoire and plus control. Bassitt handles hitters from both sides of the plate, generally avoiding hard contact and pounding the strike zone. He’s consistently posted low averages on balls in play and hasn’t allowed opponents to reach base at better than a .303 clip in any of the last four years.

His 93-94 MPH fastball is solid, but Bassitt has never gotten huge swing-and-miss or chase rates. He’s not overpowering, but he’s demonstrated a consistent knack for keeping batters off balance and limiting damage. He’s earned playoff starts in both Oakland and Queens in recent years and fits well in the middle of a contending club’s rotation. Headed into his age-34 campaign, Bassitt may be limited to three-year offers, but he should find a strong annual salary over that shorter term. He’s a virtual lock to receive and decline a QO.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal with the Red Sox. He rebounded from a tough 2019 campaign to post a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past three seasons. That includes a 3.87 mark this past season, one in which he logged 109 1/3 innings. Eovaldi has never posted the elite strikeout numbers one might expect for a pitcher whose fastball typically lives in the mid-upper 90s, but he does punch batters out at a slightly above-average clip. He also has elite control and has walked fewer than 5% of opponents in each of the last three seasons. He’s a bit home run prone at times but his strong strikeout and walk profile props up solid mid-rotation production overall.

While Eovaldi has averaged north of 97 MPH on his heater for much of his career, his fastball took a slight step back to 95.7 MPH this year. Paired with his age, that’s at least a bit of a warning sign, but he still throws sufficiently hard and had a solid 2022 season when healthy. Eovaldi did battle a pair of injuries, landing on the IL twice due to inflammation in his back and throwing shoulder. The Red Sox can and seem likely to issue him a qualifying offer.

Third Tier Mid-Rotation Types

Anderson worked as an innings-eater with the Pirates and Mariners last year. After signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers over the offseason, he continued to soak up innings while pitching to a career-low 2.57 ERA. Anderson’s 19.5% strikeout rate is fairly modest and right in line with those of previous seasons, but he’s an excellent strike-thrower who excels at getting hitters to chase pitches outside the zone. He doesn’t throw all that hard and he’s soon to be 33 years old, although he consistently thrives at avoiding hard contact. He’s a borderline QO candidate and could land a three-year deal this winter.

Clevinger was a high-end starter during his best days with the Indians, posting an ERA between 2.71 and 3.11 each season from 2017-19. Dealt from Cleveland to San Diego midway through the 2020 campaign, the right-hander required Tommy John surgery (the second of his career) that cost him all of 2021. He made it back to the mound this year but didn’t look much like his former self, posting a 4.33 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate that’s nearly ten points lower than his 2017-19 mark. Clevinger was also hit hard in his two postseason outings, making it an inopportune time to hit the market. On the plus side, he still averages north of 93 MPH on his fastball and has strong control. A team that thinks he can bounce back to more closely approximate his pre-surgery form could offer multiple years.

Heaney has long tantalized teams with quality strikeout and walk numbers, but homer troubles have led to some inconsistent ERA’s over the years. That wasn’t the case in 2022, as Heaney turned in a 3.10 ERA over 72 2/3 frames on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. He flashed elite swing-and-miss stuff, fanning 35.5% of opponents on a massive 16.8% swinging strike rate. It wasn’t quite a breakout season, as the southpaw lost a few months to repeated shoulder issues. When healthy, however, he showed top-flight bat-missing ability that should land him a solid multi-year pact this offseason. He’s a borderline QO candidate.

Generally a solid mid-rotation starter in Oakland, Manaea went to San Diego during Spring Training as part of the A’s teardown. His first (and likely only) campaign as a Padre didn’t go as planned. The southpaw started the season fine but was knocked around in the second half en route to a career-worst 4.96 ERA in 158 innings. Manaea still had decent strikeout and walk numbers and an above-average 12% swinging strike rate, giving some hope for a bounceback. He’s consistently given up his fair share of hard contact, but that wasn’t so much an issue in Oakland’s spacious home ballpark. There’ll be multi-year deals out there based on his general decent track record and strikeouts, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he may prefer a one-year pact to rebuild value after a tough final few months.

A former top prospect, Perez has gotten plenty of opportunities from teams searching for the breakout season. The Rangers, his original organization, brought him back last winter and were rewarded with the awaited career year. He made 32 starts and narrowly fell shy of 200 innings while posting a stellar 2.89 ERA. The southpaw’s 20.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging strike percentage were still each below-average, but he showed strong control and induced grounders on over half the batted balls against him. Perez has played his way into a multi-year deal, and the Rangers could tag him with a qualifying offer. Both sides have expressed interest in hammering out an extension that keeps him in Arlington.

One of the game’s most durable and consistent starters during his peak with the White Sox and Cubs, Quintana’s production slipped in 2019 and his shortened 2020 season was mostly wiped out after a hand injury that required stitches prevented him from throwing. A 2021 rebound effort with the Halos didn’t pan out, but Quintana bounced back to his vintage form in 2022. Tossing a combined 165 2/3 innings between the Pirates and Cardinals, he logged a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. It’s enough to put Quintana back in the mix for a two-year deal as a solid mid-rotation option.

Smyly missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to an oblique strain and averaged fewer than five innings per start when healthy enough to pitch. His results were solid, however, with a 3.47 ERA, a 20.4% strikeout rate and a terrific 5.8% walk rate. Smyly was a buzz name coming off a 37.8% strikeout rate through 26 1/3 innings with the Giants during the shortened 2020 season, but he’s notched a 4.02 ERA in 233 innings since that time. That said, Smyly’s swinging-strike rate (12.4%) and chase rate (36.4%) in 2022 suggest there could be more punchouts in the tank.

A valuable swingman for years with the Dodgers, Stripling had a tough season-plus in Toronto following a 2020 trade. Forced into the rotation on a full-time basis in 2022 when Hyun Jin Ryu required Tommy John surgery, Stripling was a godsend. The right-hander finished out the year with a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 frames, with 24 of his 32 appearances coming as a starter. Stripling has a below-average strikeout rate but showed elite command in 2022. He probably won’t replicate a 3.7% walk rate, but his career 5.7% mark shows that his plus command is real. He has a strong case for a full-time rotation job somewhere in free agency.

A borderline ace during his top seasons in Queens, Syndergaard rode an upper-90s heater and a power slider to a 3.31 ERA in 716 career innings through the end of the 2019 campaign. In Spring Training 2020, he was diagnosed with an elbow strain that required Tommy John surgery. He missed almost all of the next two years, returning for a cameo late in 2021. The Angels signed him to a $21MM deal last offseason in hopes he’d recapture his prior form, but Syndergaard served more as a solid mid-rotation control artist than a bat-missing ace. Between Anaheim and Philadelphia, he put up a 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 frames. He only punched out 16.8% of opponents, but his 5.5% walk percentage was excellent. Syndergaard’s fastball was down to the 94-95 MPH range and his slider came in just under 85 MPH. He wasn’t his peak self, but he was still an effective starter. At age 30, there’s still a chance he regains some of his pre-surgery form as he pulls further away from the procedure, but it wasn’t the dominant 2022 showing Syndergaard or the Angels were hoping to see 12 months ago.

The No. 2 overall pick in 2010 and long one of MLB’s premier pitching prospects, Taillon has put his 2019 Tommy John surgery (the second of his career) in the rearview mirror. Teams will have concerns surrounding any two-time Tommy John patient, but Taillon has pitched 321 2/3 innings over 61 starts since being traded to the Yankees two offseasons ago. In that time, he’s logged a 4.08 ERA with slightly below-average strikeout numbers and strong walk rates. Taillon has never put together an elite season as many hoped during his prospect days, but he’s also never had a truly bad season when healthy. He’s settled in as a solid third or fourth starter and should be popular among teams seeking rotation help but unwilling to spend at the top of the market.

A former first-round pick and top prospect, Wacha battled injuries through his arbitration years in St. Louis. He’s signed a trio of one-year, Major League deals in free agency despite pitching near replacement level from 2019-21. He rewarded the Red Sox’ faith, however, by tossing 127 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. Like many in this tier, Wacha has a below-average strikeout rate (20.2%) but strong command (6% walk rate). He missed more than a month this summer with shoulder troubles — not a new issue for him — but was sharp when on the mound. Several Boston beat writers have pegged Wacha as a qualifying offer candidate, and if the Sox make that $19.65MM offer he should take it. If not, he could find a multi-year deal.

Reliever/Starter Hybrids

A longtime starter with the Tigers, Boyd underwent flexor surgery late in the 2021 season. Detroit non-tendered him as a result, and he worked in relief for the final month this year with the Mariners upon returning to health. The southpaw had wobbly control but missed bats at a slightly above-average rate, as he has throughout his career. With a healthy offseason upcoming, he can could get new rotation opportunities this winter.

Eflin has been a stable back-of-the-rotation starter for the Phillies for the past five years. He’s a quality strike-thrower who generates a decent number of grounders with a slightly below-average strikeout rate. As one of the younger arms on the market, he looked on his way to a strong free agent deal. Unfortunately, he missed a good chunk of this past season with a right knee injury. That’s a continuation of career-long knee issues, as Eflin has undergone surgery on both knees and been open about his longstanding battle with pain in the joints. Upon returning late in the season, Eflin has worked out of the bullpen as a reflection of the shorter rehab time. He’s been a trusted high-leverage reliever for the Phils during their postseason run. He’ll likely look to get another rotation job heading into next year, but the bullpen could be a solid fallback if he again is faced with injury setbacks.

A longtime reliever, Lorenzen set his sights on a rotation spot in free agency last winter. He got that shot with the Angels, with whom he wound up making 18 starts. The right-hander posted a 4.24 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers, although he held his mid-90s velocity in longer stints and did a decent job turning lineups over multiple times in a game. He’ll probably find some teams interested in moving him back to the bullpen, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets another rotation opportunity.

Strahm came out of the bullpen 50 times for the Red Sox this year, posting a 3.83 ERA across 44 2/3 innings. He punched out almost 27% of opponents, while showing solid control and a deeper repertoire than that possessed by most relievers. That’s relevant since Strahm has spoken about a willingness to consider rotation opportunities if those are presented. He’ll certainly draw interest as a left-handed bullpen option, but there may be enough interest to get him his first extended look as a starter since 2019, as there was with Lorenzen last winter.

Short-Term Former Stars

Cueto signed a minor league deal with the White Sox last offseason after a six-year run with the Giants. The veteran made it to the majors in mid-May and surprisingly served as one of Chicago’s more consistently effective starters. He posted a 3.35 ERA through 158 1/3 innings, averaging more than six innings per outing over his 25 appearances. Cueto only struck out 15.7% of batters faced, but he demonstrated elite control and kept the White Sox in the game more often than not. Between his age, lack of missed bats and a fastball that averaged just over 91 MPH, he won’t land a huge deal, but he’s certainly pitched himself into a guaranteed rotation spot on a higher base salary than the prorated $4MM he made in Chicago this past season.

A likely future Hall of Famer, Greinke is now a reliable back-of-the-rotation option. His fastball is below 90 MPH and he struck out a career-worst 12.5% of opposing hitters during his return to the Royals this year. It certainly wasn’t a vintage Greinke performance, but he walked fewer than 5% of opponents and posted a strong 3.68 ERA. Even at 39 years old, the six-time All-Star will receive major league offers and a rotation spot next year.

Kluber missed a good chunk of the 2021 season with the Yankees, leading to an $8MM guarantee with $5MM available in incentives on last winter’s deal with the Rays. The two-time Cy Young winner stayed healthy all year and made 31 starts, triggering all his incentives by soaking up 164 innings. He posted a 4.34 ERA but walked a minuscule 3% of batters faced. Kluber’s fastball is down to around 89 MPH, but he still generated swinging strikes on more than 11% of his offerings and was adept at getting opponents to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. He has a good chance at beating last offseason’s $8MM guarantee as a result.

Depth Types

  • Chris Archer (34): After a few seasons affected by injury, Archer managed 25 starts this year with the Twins. He worked to a 4.56 ERA through 102 2/3 innings with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers. His days as an upper mid-rotation arm are behind him, but he could find another big league contract as a back-of-the-rotation type.
  • Zach Davies (30): Davies started 27 games for the Diamondbacks, pitching to a 4.09 ERA. He doesn’t miss many bats but he’s typically been a durable source of back-of-the-rotation innings.
  • Kyle Gibson (35): A 2021 trade deadline pickup after a strong start with the Rangers, Gibson has underperformed in Philadelphia. He has a 5.06 ERA in 43 starts as a Phillie. His peripherals are more solid: a quality ground-ball rate and solid strike-throwing paired with slightly below-average swing-and-miss numbers. Gibson’s a capable fourth/fifth starter.
  • Rich Hill (43): Even headed into his age-43 season, Hill plans to continue pitching. He signed with his hometown Red Sox last winter and provided a 4.27 ERA across 124 1/3 innings. His swing-and-miss rate and velocity are below-average, but he’s a respected veteran who throws strikes and has generally kept runs off the board since his late-career renaissance.
  • Wade Miley (36): Miley was one of the more effective starters in the National League a season ago, pitching to a 3.37 ERA over 163 innings in 2021. Claimed off waivers by the Cubs last winter, he battled injuries throughout the season and was limited to 37 innings.
  • Trevor Williams (31): Williams pitched in a swing role with the Mets, starting nine of 30 outings. The veteran right-hander had a 4.19 ERA as a starter but posted a much more impressive 2.51 mark in 51 innings of relief.

Minor League Deal Candidates

  • Chase Anderson (35): Anderson spent the bulk of the season working in Triple-A, but he picked up nine late-season appearances with the Reds. He posted a 6.38 ERA through 24 innings.
  • Kohei Arihara (30): A mid-rotation starter in Japan, Arihara signed a two-year deal with the Rangers over the 2020-21 offseason. He managed only a 7.57 ERA in 15 appearances over two years in Arlington. Arihara will be looking at minor league offers from affiliated teams, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he explores NPB opportunities.
  • Tyler Beede (30): A former first-rounder and well-regarded pitching prospect, Beede mostly worked out of the bullpen with the Giants and Pirates this year. He did pick up five starts in 31 outings and posted an overall 5.14 ERA before clearing waivers late in the season.
  • Chi Chi Gonzalez (31): Gonzalez suited up with three different teams in 2022, bouncing around on waivers and via minor league deals. He made five starts in seven appearances and posted a 5.87 ERA across 23 frames.
  • Drew Hutchison (32): The Tigers turned to Hutchison for his greatest workload since 2015. He soaked up 105 1/3 innings in a swing role, managing a 4.53 ERA.
  • Dallas Keuchel (35): The 2015 AL Cy Young winner has fallen on hard times in recent years. He bounced between three clubs this past season but was tagged for a 9.20 ERA through 60 2/3 frames.
  • Chad Kuhl (30): Signed to a $3MM guarantee by the Rockies last winter, Kuhl got off to a strong start in Colorado. He was hit hard in the second half and finished the year with a career-worst 5.72 ERA across 137 innings.
  • Mike Mayers (31): A productive reliever for the Angels from 2020-21, Mayers had a rough season. He posted a 5.68 ERA over 50 2/3 innings and was waived twice during the year. He did make a trio of big league starts, topping out at 5 1/3 innings in an outing, but he figures to draw more bullpen interest as a minor league free agent.
  • Michael Pineda (34): Typically a solid back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Pineda had an injury-plagued 2022 season with the Tigers. He was limited to 11 starts by a hand fracture and some triceps soreness. The non-competitive Detroit club released him before the end of the season to get a longer look at some of their controllable arms.
  • Josh Rogers (28): Rogers had an impressive five-start run late in 2021 to earn a season-opening roster spot in Washington. He couldn’t carry it over in 2022, posting a 5.13 ERA through 26 1/3 frames as a swingman before being cut loose. He spent the rest of the year in Triple-A with the Marlins.
  • Joe Ross (30): Ross has flashed mid-rotation potential at times in his career, but he hasn’t posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2016. He underwent Tommy John surgery this summer and might be looking at minor league offers while he rehabs. He won’t be ready for Opening Day, but a late-season return in 2023 doesn’t seem out of the question.
  • Aaron Sanchez (30): The former AL ERA champ has settled into journeyman territory at this stage of his career. He started 10 of 15 games for the Nationals and Twins this year, putting up a 6.60 ERA across 60 innings of work.
  • Anibal Sanchez (39): Sanchez returned after a year away to start 14 games for the Nationals. The veteran righty posted a respectable 4.28 ERA but struggled with walks and home runs.
  • Devin Smeltzer (27): Smeltzer picked up 12 starts in 15 appearances for the Twins in a depth capacity. He worked to a 3.71 ERA but only struck out 13.2% of opponents while working with a fastball that averaged just north of 89 MPH. He went unclaimed on waivers at the end of the season.
  • Jose Urena (31): Urena latched on with the Rockies midseason and made 17 starts. The former Marlin right-hander posted a 5.14 ERA across 89 1/3 innings, although he did show his typically strong velocity and ground-ball proclivities.
  • Vince Velasquez (31): Velasquez has continued to get opportunities based on his mid-90s velocity and decent ability to miss bats. Home runs have been a constant issue, however, and he’s battled plenty of command inconsistency. He worked in a swing role with the White Sox this year and put up a 4.78 ERA across 75 1/3 innings.
  • T.J. Zeuch (27): A former first-round pick of the Blue Jays, Zeuch has seen brief MLB action in four seasons. He was hit hard in three starts with the Reds in 2022.

Players With Opt-Outs/Player Options

  • Nick Martinez (32), can opt of final three years and $19.5MM on contract with Padres, $1.5MM buyout

Martinez has worked in a swing role during his first season with the Padres. After starting 10 of his first 12 outings, he moved full-time to the bullpen in June. He didn’t miss many bats in either role but he showed much stronger control as a reliever and posted a 2.67 ERA over 54 innings out of the bullpen. He’d reportedly prefer another chance as a starter, which could lean him towards triggering his opt-out. Martinez has yet to establish himself in an MLB rotation, but he was excellent over three years in the rotation in NPB and showed the ability to handle MLB bats in relief this year.

The hefty buyout figure on Odorizzi’s option means he’d only need to top $6.25MM in free agency to make testing the market a reasonable decision. Even still, he may elect to stick with the Braves after a rough second half. Acquired at the trade deadline, the veteran right-hander posted a 5.24 ERA over 10 starts in Atlanta. He was more effective in Houston but no longer misses bats as he did a few seasons ago.

  • James Paxton (34), will hold $4MM player option once Red Sox decline two-year, $26MM club option

Paxton signed a complex deal with Boston to finish off his rehab after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He didn’t wind up pitching in 2022, as he suffered a lat tear while rehabbing. There’s no way the Red Sox guarantee him $26MM, so Paxton will be left to decide whether to return to Boston on a $4MM salary or set out to free agency in search of an incentive-laden deal with a bit more earning power.

The durability issues that plagued Walker in his mid-20s have largely been put in the past. He’s made 69 starts and pitched 369 2/3 frames over the past three seasons, recording a 3.80 ERA along the way. This year’s 20.3% strikeout rate is a career-low, but his 6.9% walk rate is Walker’s best since 2016. The right-hander doesn’t do any one thing especially well but also doesn’t have a glaring weakness. Walker is a slam-dunk to turn down this modestly priced option and find a multi-year deal in free agency, assuming the Mets don’t make him a qualifying offer.

Players With Club Options

  • Dylan Bundy (30), Twins hold $11MM option with $1MM buyout

Bundy signed a one-year guarantee with Minnesota last offseason. The Twins’ hopes at a bounceback season didn’t pan out, as he averaged under 90 MPH on his fastball for the first time in his career and put up a 4.89 ERA over 140 innings. He’ll be bought out.

Carrasco went from the Indians to the Mets in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster over the 2020-21 offseason. His first year in Queens was tarnished by injury, but he returned to make 29 starts this past season. Over 152 innings, Carrasco posted a 3.97 ERA with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers. It looks like he’s done enough to earn the Mets picking up his option, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Carrasco’s injury history could give the team pause.

Duffy signed with the Dodgers last offseason while rehabbing from a flexor strain that required surgery. He had a setback this summer and didn’t throw a big league pitch in 2022. He’ll be bought out and might be limited to minor league offers this time around.

Gray’s option is a no-brainer for the Twins. He battled some injuries during his first season in Minnesota but put up a 3.08 ERA in 119 2/3 innings when healthy. He’ll be back in the middle of the Twins starting staff next year.

  • Jordan Lyles (32), Orioles hold $11MM option with $1MM buyout

The O’s are faced with a tough decision on Lyles, whom they signed to a one-year guarantee last winter. The veteran righty ate innings as the club had hoped and put up a 4.42 ERA that was his lowest mark in three seasons. Even that was still a fair bit worse than average, however, as were his strikeout and ground-ball numbers. He’s a stable back-end starter who reportedly served as a strong veteran leader in the O’s clubhouse.

  • Aaron Nola (30), Phillies hold $16MM option with $4.25MM buyout

There’s no chance Nola hits free agency. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game, and the Phillies won’t have any easier decisions this offseason than to exercise his option.

  • Luis Severino (29), Yankees hold $15MM club option with $2.75MM buyout

The Yankees are sure to retain Severino, who came back from a trio of injury-diminished seasons to post a 3.18 ERA over 102 innings. He again missed a couple months with a lat strain, but the right-hander showed his old velocity and upper mid-rotation form when healthy.

Previous installments:Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field, Designated Hitter

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