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AL East Notes: Story, Bogaerts, LeMahieu, Quinn, Schneider

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Red Sox infielder Trevor Story has only played 94 games this season due to various injuries and doesn’t have much time left to add to that total. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports that the earliest Story could come back from the IL is the club’s final series against the Rays, which begins October 3.

Story’s health won’t impact the 2022 season at this point as the club is eliminated from postseason contention, but it will be significant for the 2023 club. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts can opt out of his contract this offseason and is widely expected to do so. Boston will then have to decide on what their middle infield plan is for next year. Extension talks in the spring reportedly didn’t make any progress and Rob Bradford of WEEI relays word from Bogaerts that talks haven’t picked back up as of yet.

The club could theoretically move Story back to shortstop, where he played for years while with the Rockies, and then give second base to Christian Arroyo, Enrique Hernandez, Yu Chang or someone else. However, that plan will come with some uncertainty. Story dealt with shoulder issues in 2021, making 11 throwing errors that year. Some in the industry felt he was better suited to second base, which is where the Sox have had him this year. He seems to have taken well to the position change, racking up five Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average despite barely playing half a season. If the club decides that Story has found a good home at the keystone, they would then have to figure out who’s taking over at short.

Some other tidbits from the AL Beast…

  • The Yankees could activate DJ LeMahieu from the IL tomorrow, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “We’re about at that point of, let’s go give this thing a go,” manager Aaron Boone tells Hoch. LeMahieu has been out of action for more than three weeks due to a toe injury, which put a halt to another fine season at the plate for the 34-year-old. He’s hit .262/.358/.381 for a wRC+ of 117 while providing quality defense at first, second and third base. All told, he’s produced three wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, making this the eighth straight season of him getting to 1.9 fWAR or higher. The Yankees have already clinched a spot in the playoffs and are virtually guaranteed to finish atop the AL East and earn a bye past the first round. If LeMahieu is indeed able to rejoin the team tomorrow, he will have a week to get some at-bats and get back into game shape before the regular season concludes.
  • Rays outfielder Roman Quinn has joined the Triple-A Durham Bulls to begin a rehab assignment, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Quinn played well in 21 games for the Rays, hitting .262/.340/.305 for a wRC+ of 121 before landing on the IL due to a knee contusion. He hasn’t hit for much in the majority of his time in the big leagues but has always been useful due to his speed and defense. The Rays are likely headed for the postseason as they currently hold the second AL Wild Card spot and could potentially find Quinn’s skillset to be useful off the bench.
  • The Blue Jays fired Charlie Montoyo from his manager role earlier this year and gave John Schneider the position on an interim basis. The Jays have generally fared well since the move, going 41-25 since he was pushed up to the top job in the dugout. That might be enough for the club to simply remove the “interim” tag for next season, though a final decision is not being made public just yet. “He’s certainly a long-term fit,” general manager Ross Atkins tells Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, though also indicating they will make a formal decision at a later date. Matheson opines that Schneider will be sticking around, though it seems official proclamations will have to wait.

Cubs Designate Michael Hermosillo For Assignment

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The Cubs made a series of roster moves prior to tonight’s game, with reporter Mark Gonzales among those who relayed them on Twitter. The club has reinstated catcher Willson Contreras from the injured list and Seiya Suzuki from the restricted list. Suzuki was previously on the paternity list but traveled to Japan and wasn’t able to return within the three-day maximum stint for paternity leave, which necessitated his transfer to the restricted list. In corresponding moves, infielder/outfielder Jared Young was optioned to the minors while outfielder Michael Hermosillo was designated for assignment.

Hermosillo, 27, was drafted by the Angels in 2013 and stayed with them through 2020. He reached free agency at that point and then signed a minor league deal with Chicago. Since joining the Cubs, he’s occasionally shown flashes of potential, mostly in the minors, but has also been frequently hurt. Last year, he hit .306/.446/.592 in 43 Triple-A games, producing a 178 wRC+ and getting called up to the majors in August. He then produced a line of .194/.237/.500 in 16 games before a left forearm strain ended his season.

He was non-tendered at the end of that year and re-signed for 2022. One month into the season, he landed on the IL due to a quad strain and ended up spending four months out of action. In 31 MLB games around that IL stint, he’s hit just .115/.250/.148. He fared better on his rehab assignment in the minors, hitting .324/.400/.559 in a small sample of 10 games, but wasn’t able to bring any of that up to the show. Since he’s out of options, the Cubs didn’t have the ability to simply send him down to the minors and have instead decided to cut him from the 40-man roster. With the trade deadline long gone, they will have no choice but to place him on outright or release waivers in the coming days. If he were to clear, he would have the ability to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency by virtue of having been previously outrighted in his career.

As for Contreras, he’s missed the past three weeks due to an ankle sprain but will return for the club’s final nine games, which could potentially be his last with the team. Since he is heading into free agency this winter and the Cubs were never in serious contention this year, he was widely expected to be flipped at the deadline. Surprisingly, that never happened and he will instead be given, and reject, a qualifying offer once the offseason begins. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently looked at the top catchers available in free agency this year, with Contreras at the top. Though the injury slowed him down, he’s still heading into the open market on the heels of an excellent season. He’s already hit 21 home runs and slashed .246/.351/.471, producing a 132 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR that are both career bests. He’ll have just over a week to add to those numbers and show that the injury is behind him before the season draws to a close.

Phillies Reinstate Nick Castellanos

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Sep. 27: As planned, Castellanos has been reinstated, according to an announcement from the Phillies. Catcher Donny Sands was optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move.

Sep. 24: Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos is planning to return to the lineup on Tuesday, when the Phils begin a three-game series with the Cubs.  Castellanos hasn’t played since September 2 due to an oblique strain, but after taking part in baseball activities today, he believes he is ready to get back onto the field without the benefit of a minor league rehab assignment.

“[The team] asked if I think I need one and I said no,” Castellanos told NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury and other reporters.  “I just feel like the sooner I can get back and play and lose myself in a baseball game, the better….I’ve known so many people that have gone down and done fantastic in their rehab assignments and then have come up and it’s a new game.  My philosophy is the sooner I can get back into a game that’s important, the better.”

Another set of on-field activities are slated for tomorrow, and if Castellanos comes out of those workouts feeling good, it would seem as if he’ll be activated from the 10-day injured list in time for Tuesday’s game.  (The Phillies don’t play on Monday.)  Castellanos said that swinging a bat was the last step in his rehab, as he hadn’t had any issues running or throwing for several days.  In general, Castellanos said that “I wouldn’t say [I feel] 100 percent, but I don’t feel like I need to be 100 percent.  I just don’t want to feel restricted or like I could injure myself again.”

As the Phillies continue to battle for an NL wild card slot, Castellanos is certainly eager to return to the playoff race after missing much of September.  Adding to his frustration, Castellanos was seemingly breaking out of his season-long slump at the time of his injury.  Castellanos hit .318/.348/.505 over his last 112 plate appearances prior to his IL stint, after delivering a disappointing .250/.294/.367 slash line in his first 419 PA of the season.  Matt Vierling, Phil Maton, and Dalton Guthrie have seen the bulk of work in right field in Castellanos’ absence.

Sandy Leon To Undergo Knee Surgery

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The Twins announced that catcher Sandy Leon has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 24, and will undergo right knee meniscus surgery. Taking his place on the active roster is fellow catcher Ryan Jeffers, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. The club already had an opening on its 40-man roster for Jeffers. Should they need another roster spot in the final days of the season, they can transfer Leon to the 60-day IL since this move will keep him out beyond the end of the schedule.

Earlier today, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about Carlos Correa and highlighted the tremendous amount of injuries the Twins have suffered this season. One of the many players missing significant time was Jeffers, who went on the IL in mid-July due to a thumb contusion and has only now returned. He was having a decent season before that injury, having hit .214/.291/.375. That only amounts to a 92 wRC+, which is 8% below the league average hitter. However, this year’s league average slash line for a catcher is .227/.296/.368, 89 wRC+. Jeffers produced strong work on the other side of the ball, accruing four Defensive Runs Saved and a mark of 3.2 from the FanGraphs framing metric, allowing him to produce 1.0 fWAR in just 60 games.

Jeffers and Gary Sanchez had been splitting the time behind the plate in the Minnesota, with Sanchez taking on a larger role after Jeffers landed on the shelf. The Twins also used Caleb Hamilton for a couple of weeks before turning to the veteran Leon, who had been in the minors with the Guardians. The Twins swung a trade for Leon at the deadline and called him up to the big league team. Outside of a scorching hot 2016 season that now seems like an outlier, Leon has never been much of an offensive threat. That continued to the be the case in his time with the Twins, as he hit .179/.270/.232 for a wRC+ of 50. With just over a week remaining in the campaign and the Twins out of contention, this IL placement will finish his season. It’s unclear how long it will take him to recover from this surgery, but he will he will head into free agency in just over a month and look to heal up and find his next opportunity.

Since Sanchez is also an impending free agent, Jeffers is lined up to be the club’s primary catcher for next season. Hamilton will likely still be around as well, but it’s possible the club will look to add another established backstop during the offseason. By returning at this stage of the calendar, Jeffers will have the opportunity to get a handful of games in and finish the season on a positive note before the winter arrives. Both he and the Twins will be hoping for better results in 2023, after injuries caused them to fall short of expectations this year.

Injury Notes: Carpenter, Larnach, Brault

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Matt Carpenter was putting together a comeback season for the ages with the Yankees, hitting .305/.412/.727 with 15 home runs in 154 plate appearances before suffering a broken bone when fouling a ball into his foot. The foot fracture didn’t require surgery, but the timing of the injury placed Carpenter’s season in jeopardy. Manager Aaron Boone said yesterday that the Yankees are now hopeful that the 36-year-old Carpenter will be able to return for the final series of the regular season (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It’s not a given, but it’d be a nice bonus for both the Yankees and Carpenter himself to get a look at his swing in a game setting before the postseason rolls around.

A  couple more injury updates from around the game…

  • The Twins added another name to their ever-growing list of season-ending injuries, as outfielder Trevor Larnach will not return before the end of the 2022 season, per Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Larnach underwent core muscle surgery early in the summer and was all but finished with a rehab assignment last week, when he sustained a wrist injury during one of the final plate appearances of his rehab assignment. The 25-year-old tells Miller that he wasn’t even able to hold a bat the day after incurring the injury. Larnach got out to a solid start in 2022, hitting .258/.331/.477 with five homers and 13 doubles through his first 145 plate appearances. He collected just four hits in 35 plate appearances before undergoing surgery, however, and now won’t return to the field this year. Larnach and teammate Alex Kirilloff are both former first-rounders who’ve been touted among the game’s 50 best prospects at multiple points in the past, but injuries have prevented them from establishing themselves as lineup fixtures at Target Field.
  • Left-hander Steven Brault’s shoulder hasn’t responded as hoped during his minor league rehab assignment, Cubs skipper David Ross said yesterday (via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, on Twitter). He’s headed back to Chicago to be further evaluated and won’t return to the mound this season. The longtime Pirates lefty originally inked a Major League deal with the Cubs in the offseason but had it restructured as a minor league contract due to an injury setback. The 30-year-old Brault didn’t pitch, even in the minors, until July 1 this season. He made his way to the big league roster two weeks later and tossed nine innings with a 3.00 ERA and an 8-to-5 K/BB ratio before a shoulder strain sent him back to the injured list in mid-August. Brault also missed significant time in 2019 due to a shoulder strain and missed much of the 2021 campaign due to a lat strain. Brault will be a free agent at season’s end.

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: First Basemen

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As the offseason approaches, MLBTR is taking a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Today, we’ll focus on first base, a group with a few well-regarded veterans coming off quality seasons at the top.

Top of the Class

Abreu is coming off arguably the best season of any impending free agent first baseman. Even as he’s gotten into his mid-30s, he remains one of the better hitters in the game. Abreu carries a .304/.377/.445 line over 652 plate appearances, and he’s tied for the American League lead with 176 hits. He only has 15 home runs and is almost certain to finish with the lowest home run total of his nine-year MLB career, but he’s collected 36 doubles. Abreu also hasn’t lost much, if any, bat speed. His 92.1 MPH average exit velocity and 51.7% hard contact rate are both in line with the best marks of his career and near the top of the league overall. He’s hitting a few more ground-balls than before, but there’s no indication his physical abilities are dwindling.

Even heading into his age-36 season, Abreu will be one of the better offensive players on the market. Over the past three years, he owns a .289/.365/.489 line, ranking 14th in on-base percentage and 26th in slugging among 118 qualified hitters. He’s tough to strike out, has posted slightly above-average walk rates in each of the past two years and still has excellent batted ball metrics. He also hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons and has drawn plaudits for his clubhouse leadership in Chicago. The only real concern with Abreu is his age, but there’s already proof of concept he can remain productive beyond his prime-aged years. The White Sox issued him a qualifying offer back in 2019, meaning he’ll be ineligible to receive one this offseason.

Bell has shown the ability to carry a lineup at his best. He hit 37 home runs with a .277/.367/.569 line for the Pirates in 2019, and he mashed at a .301/.384/.493 clip over 437 plate appearances with the Nationals earlier this season. Yet he’s also been prone to extended down stretches, and he’s headed towards free agency amidst a sharp downturn in production. Since the Padres landed him at the trade deadline, he’s hitting .191/.310/.280 with only a trio of homers in 45 games. He also had a rough 2020 season and started slowly last year before catching fire in the second half.

Even with some inconsistency, there’s a lot to like about Bell. His overall .265/.355/.452 line dating back to the start of 2021 is a fair bit better than the .254/.331/.440 league mark for first basemen. Bell is a switch-hitter with excellent plate discipline, and he consistently draws walks in over 10% of his plate appearances. He has three 25-homer seasons on his resume and typically rates near the top of the league in average exit velocity and hard contact percentage, although his batted ball metrics this season have been right around league average. Bell has shown a promising combination of power and patience in years past, and he’s not a prototypical strikeout-prone slugger. His 15.6% strikeout rate this season is nearly seven points lower than the league mark. He looks like an impact bat when everything’s clicking, but he’ll hit the market coming off a rough couple months. Because of the midseason trade, Bell is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.

Regulars

Mancini made an incredible comeback from a battle with colon cancer that cost him the entire 2020 season. He’s hit at a slightly above-average level in each of the following two years, compiling 39 total home runs with a .251/.326/.418 line. Mancini’s production in each of the last two years has been roughly the same: average strikeout and walk rates with slightly better than par batted ball metrics and power output. Mancini’s over-the-fence pop was down during his first few months with the Orioles this season, but that’s certainly in part due to the changing dimensions at Camden Yards that weren’t friendly to right-handed hitters. Mancini is more a solid hitter than an impact one, with his .291/.364/.535 showing in 2019 looking increasingly like an outlier. He does most things well, though, and he was a beloved clubhouse and community presence in Baltimore. Mancini probably wouldn’t have received a qualifying offer regardless, but a midseason trade to the Astros officially took that off the table.

Veterans Coming Off Down Years

Gurriel is a season removed from winning the American League batting title with a .319/.383/.462 showing in 2021. Unfortunately, he’s followed that up with a woeful .238/.283/.357 line over 558 plate appearances. Gurriel has been one of the least productive everyday players in the big leagues, and he’s now posted below-average showings in two of the past three seasons. Now past his 38th birthday, it seems he’s nearing or past the point where he’ll be a productive big leaguer. That also looked to be the case in 2020, though, and he responded with an excellent ’21 campaign. He’ll get another chance to do the same this winter, but there aren’t many positives to take away from his 2022 performance.

One of the game’s best on-base hitters at his peak, Santana has seen his production dip over the past three years. He had well below-average numbers in 2020-21 but has bounced back somewhat this season, compiling a .194/.311/.378 line in 473 plate appearances between the Royals and Mariners. The sub-Mendoza line batting average is an obvious eyesore, but Santana’s overall hitting checks in at league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s largely thanks to his extremely patient approach, which has allowed him to work a walk in 14.2% of his plate appearances even as his results on batted balls have plummeted. Santana is probably miscast as a regular at this stage of his career, but he’s gotten significant run between first base and designated hitter with two teams this year thanks to his plate discipline.

Like Gurriel, Belt was one of the better first basemen in 2021. A .274/.378/.597 showing earned him an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Giants, which he accepted. The left-handed hitter didn’t come close to replicating that production this season, with his year largely derailed by knee problems. Belt hit .213/.326/.350 over 298 plate appearances while battling injury, and he underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee earlier this month. Indications are the surgery went well and he’s going to be ready for Spring Training. When healthy, Belt is capable of anchoring a lineup. Yet he’s battled plenty of injuries in recent years, and this trip to the market comes on the heels of a season diminished by knee issues.

Multi-Positional Players

Drury will probably draw interest from teams looking for help all around the infield. He’s played mostly third base this season but also logged 25+ games at each of second and first base. A minor league signee by the Reds last winter, Drury has elevated his stock with a career showing in 2022. He mashed at a .274/.335/.520 clip with 20 homers in 385 plate appearances with Cincinnati. The Reds flipped him to the Padres at the trade deadline. He’s tailed off in San Diego, posting a meager .265 on-base percentage but collecting another eight round-trippers in 37 games. Drury looked to be in journeyman territory at this time last year, but his .261/.316/.501 cumulative line this season should get him a multi-year deal.

Drury’s former teammate in Cincinnati, Solano plays a similar bat-first utility role. He’s worked mostly as a designated hitter this year, but he’s played frequently at the corner infield spots and second base as well. He’s hitting .292/.343/.397 over 280 plate appearances, his fourth straight above-average offensive year since reemerging late in his career as a member of the Giants. A glove-first second baseman early in his career with the Marlins, he’s compensated for declining defensive marks by hitting .280 or better in four consecutive seasons. Solano doesn’t walk much or have a ton of power, but his high-average game is atypical in today’s offensive environment. As with Drury, teams aren’t going to view him as an everyday option at first base, but he’s a good addition to a bench who can cover multiple spots on the infield.

Depth Types

Aguilar hit 35 home runs a few seasons ago, and he was still an above-average hitter with the Marlins between 2020-21. The 2022 season has been a struggle, as he hit .236/.286/.388 over 456 plate appearances with the Fish and was released late last month. He hooked on with the Orioles but hasn’t contributed much in 12 games in Baltimore. Aguilar could be looking at a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite this winter.

A regular for a few seasons with the Pirates, Moran was on and off the Reds roster this year. He hit only .211/.305/.376 with five homers in 128 MLB plate appearances and posted slightly below-average numbers in Triple-A. Cincinnati released him earlier this month.

A longtime minor leaguer, Schwindel had a fantastic second half to the 2021 campaign. Getting his first extended MLB action with the Cubs, he hit .342/.389/.613 over 56 games. Chicago gave him an opportunity to see if he could emerge as a late-blooming regular, but he hit .229/.277/.358 in 292 trips to the plate this season. The Cubs released Schwindel last week.

Tsutsugo caught on with the Pirates late in 2021 and had a great final month. That earned him a $4MM contract to return to Pittsburgh, but he stumbled to a .171/.249/.229 line with only two homers in 193 plate appearances. The Bucs released him in August, and he signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays. He’s hitting well in Triple-A overall but striking out a third of the time there, and he hasn’t gotten a big league call from Toronto. Whether the Jays eventually add him to the MLB roster or not, he’ll be a free agent at year’s end.

Player Options

Rizzo signed a two-year, $32MM guarantee with the Yankees last offseason. That deal afforded him an opt-out chance after this year, and there’s a solid case for Rizzo to take it following his best season since 2019. He’s connected on 32 home runs and slugged .492. Rizzo’s .223 batting average is among the worst of his career, but that’s largely due to a personal-worst .212 average on balls in play. A pull hitter who has been shifted on over 84% of his at-bats this season, per Statcast, he’s likely to be among the top beneficiaries of the forthcoming shift limitations. Even a slight uptick in his ball in play results could help Rizzo regain his peak form, since he’s still hitting the ball hard and is difficult to strike out.

The longtime Cub has a strong defensive reputation, although his public metrics have dipped over the past couple seasons. He’s also widely regarded as an excellent clubhouse presence and team leader. If Rizzo triggers his opt-out clause, the Yankees would have the ability to make him a qualifying offer.

  • Eric Hosmer (33), can opt out of final three years and $39MM remaining on his contract

There’s little intrigue with Hosmer’s opt-out decision. He’ll certainly opt in to the final $39MM on his deal (almost all of which will be paid by the Padres) to return to the Red Sox. Hosmer has a .267/.333/.381 line with eight homers in 414 plate appearances this season.

Club Options

  • Wil Myers (32), $20MM team option with $1MM buyout

The Padres will obviously buy Myers out, likely ending an eight-year run in the organization. Aside from a monster showing during the shortened 2020 campaign, the right-handed hitter has been a slightly above-average hitter for most of his time in San Diego. This season’s .255/.306/.379 showing across 265 plate appearances is his worst as a Padre, and he’s been limited to a situational role — primarily between the corner outfield and first base. Myers has some power and is a serviceable defender in the corners. He’s likely to land a big league deal but is probably miscast as an everyday player.

Sanó’s time with the Twins is probably nearing its end, as Minnesota is certain to buy out his 2023 option. The burly slugger has almost as much raw power as anyone in the sport, but his production has been inconsistent because of his huge strikeout totals. Sanó played in only 20 games this season because of left knee issues and hit terribly when on the field.

Note: Albert Pujols is playing on a one-year contract with the Cardinals and will technically qualify for free agency at season’s end. He has started 18 games at first base, but he’s already announced he’ll retire after the 2022 campaign.

* Player age for 2023 season

Previous FA positional previews: catcher

A’s Notes: Pinder, Brown, Laureano

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With Stephen Vogt’s retirement announcement last week, the A’s only have one impending free agent who plans to continue playing in 2023. Chad Pinder is set to hit the open market for the first time, but the career-long Athletic tells Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle he’d welcome a return to Oakland.

“I don’t know what their plans are — I’m not sure they know,” Pinder said of the A’s front office. “I know they’re doing a good job right now of trying to find the pieces of the puzzle, young guys to be the core next year. And for me, honestly, that’s been fun to watch. Because I remember being part of that at one point. But yeah, I would never discount coming back here. It’s a place that’s special to me.”

A third-round draftee in 2013, Pinder debuted three years later and has been a frequently-utilized utilityman. The 2022 campaign is the fourth in which he’s partaken in more than half the A’s games, and he’s likely to set a new career mark in plate appearances. Pinder has tallied 362 trips to the plate this year, just eight shy of 2019’s figure with a bit more than a week to play. While manager Mark Kotsay has pencilled him into the lineup fairly frequently, Pinder has struggled through a down year. He owns a .230/.258/.384 line with a personal-worst 31.5% strikeout rate and a minuscule 3.9% walk rate.

Despite his disappointing numbers at the dish, Kotsay tells Kawahara he’d “love to have Pinder back here.” The 30-year-old has drawn praise from both Kotsay and former Oakland skipper Bob Melvin for his clubhouse presence, and he’s been a decent platoon bat over the course of his career. The right-handed hitter owns a .263/.322/.459 career line against left-handed pitching, although he’s just a .224/.271/.387 hitter versus same-handed opponents.

Pinder has mostly been limited to corner outfield work this season, but he has a fair bit of infield experience as well. He’s split time with lefty-swinging Tony Kemp and Conner Capel in the corners over the past couple weeks, while Kotsay has somewhat surprisingly turned to Seth Brown in center field. Brown had started just two MLB games in center field coming into this season, but he’s picked up ten starts there this year. In a separate piece, Kawahara writes the A’s are getting a look there to gauge whether Brown could be a candidate for more center field work next season.

It seems unlikely the A’s would want to count on the 30-year-old for anything more than emergency work up the middle. Brown has played almost exclusively first base or the corner outfield in his MLB career, and public defensive metrics were down on his work in the corners this year. It’s hard to envision him playing anything more than a fringy center field. The A’s are nevertheless giving him run at the position over Cristian Pache, who came over from the Braves in the Matt Olson blockbuster. Pache is on the active roster and is an excellent defensive center fielder, but he’s looked overmatched at the plate at both the MLB and Triple-A levels.

Brown, on the other hand, has had a quietly strong season at the plate. The left-handed hitter owns a .233/.306/.458 line with a team-leading 25 home runs across 517 trips. That’s been driven by an excellent second half of the season. Brown is hitting .261/.358/.554 with 15 longballs since the All-Star Break. Brown is tied for third in the majors in homers since the Break, topped only by Aaron Judge and Manny Machado. That’ll certainly earn him everyday run next year, even if he seems likelier to return to a corner position. Brown won’t reach arbitration eligibility until after next season and is controllable through 2026.

Another corner outfield spot could belong to Ramón Laureano, who played primarily right field this year after rating poorly in center. Laureano looked like a potential trade candidate, but he had a rough 2022 campaign. Delayed to start the year after a positive performance-enhancing drug test last sumner, he hit only .211/.287/.376 over 383 plate appearances. Laureano landed on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a right hamstring strain, and head trainer Nick Paparesta informed reporters over the weekend that he’s not expected to return this season (via Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). The 28-year-old recently received a platelet-rich plasma injection to address a separate issue in his right hip.

Laureano’s path to free agency was delayed by a year, since he unable to collect MLB service while serving his suspension. He’s now arbitration-eligible through 2025 and will be due a modest raise on this season’s $2.45MM salary. The retooling A’s will probably be open to trade offers this winter, but it’s hard to envision another club meeting Oakland’s asking price after Laureano’s rough season.

The Cardinals’ Second-Half Breakout Outfielder

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The Cardinals have been among the sport’s most consistently successfully clubs in recent years, finishing above .500 each season since 2008. Among the reasons for those perennially strong results: the team’s knack for developing players from the middle tier of the farm system into successful major leaguers.

That ability to churn out productive hitters is a key factor in the club closing in on an NL Central title. Plenty of attention has been devoted to the MVP-caliber contributions of corner infielders Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt and the incredible turnaround for Albert Pujols, who collected his 700th career homer last Friday. That’s well-deserved, but it shouldn’t obscure from the production the club has gotten outside the middle of the lineup.

There are a few players who’ve been instrumental pieces of Oliver Marmol’s lineup. Tommy Edman has played Gold Glove caliber defense at both middle infield positions and stolen 31 bases. Even with roughly league average hitting, he’s been worth between five and six wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Brendan Donovan will probably get some third-place votes in NL Rookie of the Year balloting thanks to an excellent .279/.389/.377 line across 436 plate appearances. Yet neither player has been as impactful for St. Louis in the second half as second-year outfielder Lars Nootbaar.

Like Edman and Donovan, Nootbaar was a mid-round draftee. An eighth-round pick out of USC in 2018, he didn’t appear on an organizational prospect ranking at Baseball America before making his MLB debut last June. The left-handed hitter posted a league average .239/.317/.422 showing in 58 games as a rookie, but he didn’t have a place in a season-opening outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson. Nootbaar saw a fair bit of pinch hit work early in the season, tallying 101 plate appearances in 40 games through the All-Star Break. St. Louis optioned him to Triple-A on three separate occasions, including a nearly month-long stint between April and May.

Nootbaar wasn’t especially productive during that early-season work. A plantar fasciitis diagnosis for Bader pushed Carlson from right field to center in late June, opening up the former position. St. Louis then dealt the injured Bader to the Yankees at the August 2 trade deadline, subtracting from the big league outfield to address their rotation needs by bringing in Jordan Montgomery. That marked a show of faith in both Carlson to handle the increased defensive demands up the middle, and in Nootbaar to hold his own with regular playing time in right field.

St. Louis brass has to be pleased with the way Nootbaar has taken to the opportunity. Since deadline day, he’s hitting .228/.362/.497 with nine home runs and seven doubles over 185 plate appearances. While the batting average isn’t eye-catching, he ranks 37th in on-base percentage and 30th in slugging among 149 qualified hitters over that stretch. Overall, Nootbaar’s season line is up to .229/.345/.458 in 316 plate appearances, offense that checks in 29 points above league average by measure of wRC+.

The results are strong as is, but the more impressive aspect is that Nootbaar has found success with dismal ball in play results. He owns a .221 BABIP since deadline day, the sixth-lowest mark among qualifiers. That’s not entirely attributable to poor fortune; Nootbaar hasn’t hit many line drives over this stretch. Yet he’s both hitting the ball hard and showing a strong awareness for the strike zone. His 17.3% walk rate since the deadline is topped only by Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and he’s one of eight qualified batters with more free passes than punchouts. His 91.6 MPH average exit velocity and 47.5% hard contact rate, meanwhile, are each decidedly better than average.

Nootbaar’s production has tailed off in September following a scorching August, largely thanks to a woeful .146 BABIP this month. The power, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills have largely remained intact, however. He has a 10:13 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 68 September plate appearances, and he’s connected on six extra-base hits (including four longballs).

During his first extended action as an everyday major league player, Nootbaar has shown plus power potential, an extremely discerning eye and decent bat-to-ball skills. Even if his line drive rate stays down, he’s shown the ability to be productive despite a subpar batting average. If Nootbaar can improve upon his bat control even slightly, he has a chance to be a well above-average offensive player.

He’ll certainly need more than two months of solid production to cement himself as a core piece of the organization’s future, but he’s played his way into an everyday outfield job heading into the playoffs. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Michael Girsch and the rest of the front office took a risk in dealing from their outfield in the middle of a contested division race. Nootbaar has, thus far, rewarded their faith by effectively stepping into that vacancy.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mariners Expect To Activate Eugenio Suarez On Tuesday

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The Mariners are likely to reinstate Eugenio Suárez from the injured list tomorrow, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13). He’ll be deployed as a designated hitter initially, as the fracture in his right index finger is still inhibiting him defensively.

In even better news for the M’s, Dipoto said star center fielder Julio Rodríguez “looks great” as he rehabs from the lower back strain that sent him to the injured list last week. Dipoto indicated the club anticipates he’ll be ready for reinstatement when first eligible next Monday.

Getting both players back after brief absences is critical for a Mariners team trying to secure its first playoff berth in over two decades. The M’s enter play Monday with an 83-69 record that has them in possession of the American League’s final Wild Card spot. They’re four games clear of the Orioles, and they’re within 2 1/2 games of both the Blue Jays and Rays as they jockey for Wild Card position.

Assuming the Mariners hold onto a playoff spot in some capacity, they look likely to enter the postseason with both Suárez and Rodríguez on the roster. That duo has arguably been Seattle’s top two position players this year. Rodríguez has emerged as the face of the franchise with an incredible rookie season, hitting .280/.342/.502 with 27 home runs and 25 stolen bases across 549 plate appearances. Suárez, meanwhile, leads the team with 31 homers and has a .235/.335/.470 line. It has been a surprising bounceback after a .198/.286/.428 showing his final year with the Reds.

The Mariners have turned to Ty France and Abraham Toro at third base in Suárez’s absence. They’ll presumably continue to split the hot corner until he’s ready to return to action defensively, while Jesse Winker will probably get more action in left field after serving as the DH of late. That’d come at the expense of playing time for Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell. Center field, meanwhile, has been the purview of Jarred Kelenic since Rodríguez went down.

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