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Archives for August 2022

Braves Place Jackson Stephens On 7-Day IL, Recall Jay Jackson

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The Braves placed right-hander Jackson Stephens on the 7-day concussion IL and recalled fellow righty Jay Jackson, the team announced today. Per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Stephens has been diagnosed with a mild concussion. He suffered the injury when a Brendan Donovan liner ricocheted off his forehead in the ninth inning of the Braves’ blowout win over the Cardinals last night.

Should Jackson find his way into a game, it’ll be his first action with the Braves, though his recall marks his second stint with the big-league club this year. He had previously been called up when Max Fried went on the concussion IL earlier this month but did not enter a game.

In 56 1/3 innings in the majors across parts of three seasons with the Padres, Brewers, and Giants, the 34-year-old — who also spent three years pitching in Japan for the Hiroshima Carp — owns a 4.31 ERA (4.22 FIP) as well as a stellar 32.6% strikeout rate and a not-so-stellar 12.8% walk rate. He’s performed admirably in limited action for Triple-A Gwinnett this year, posting a 1.72 ERA in 15 2/3 innings with a 29.5% strikeout rate and a much more palatable 4.9% walk rate.

Stephens, who hadn’t appeared in a major league game since a 2018 stint with the Reds heading into the season, had been something of a revelation at the back end of a top-notch Braves bullpen. While bad luck against the Cardinals last night marred his season numbers somewhat, he still owns a 3.89 ERA (3.56 FIP) in 44 innings across 32 appearances. In a bullpen that also includes Kenley Jansen, A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, Colin McHugh, and Raisel Iglesias (who essentially took the place of Will Smith), Stephens has mostly pitched in low-leverage situations, though not exclusively.

It isn’t yet clear how long Stephens will be out, but he’s probably a safe bet for the Braves’ postseason roster, presuming he’s back and ready to pitch by then. Jackson may benefit from the forthcoming expansion of rosters on the first of September, though the Braves have a pair of pitchers nearing return (Darren O’Day and Mike Soroka, who’s slated to make his third rehab start today as he works his way back from a pair of achilles tears) that could well create a roster crunch sooner than later, even with an extra spot available in the bullpen.

Red Sox Option Jarren Duran, Activate Trevor Story

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The Red Sox have optioned outfielder Jarren Duran to Triple-A Worcester, reports Chris Cottilo of MassLive (Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe had earlier reported that Duran’s locker was empty, suggesting such a move had occurred). The move opens a roster spot for the return of Trevor Story, who’s been activated from the 10-day IL and is in the starting lineup for today’s game against the Rays.

While the move may be short-lived with rosters set to expand to 28 in a few days, it will represent a disappointment for Duran, a consensus top-100 prospect entering the season. Though by no means entirely overmatched in the big leagues, Duran’s batting line — .220/.283/.365 in 219 plate appearances — fell well short of the stellar .305/.379/.531 line he posted in Triple-A in roughly the same sample.

Meanwhile, the combination of Duran’s demotion and Story’s return could have something of a cascading effect on the Red Sox lineup, likely pushing Enrique Hernandez to more regular duty in center field and Christian Arroyo to first base, at least until Eric Hosmer returns from injury (per Ian Browne of MLB.com). In addition to offering a bit more defensive stability, Story’s return adds some much-needed power potential to Alex Cora’s lineup card, even as Story has limped to a career-worst .221/.289/.423 batting line in his first year in Boston.

Even if Story returns to form, though, the Red Sox would need a minor miracle to salvage what’s been a disappointing season in Beantown. Despite high expectations and a hot start, the club has been beset by injuries to the pitching staff (including to would-be ace Chris Sale, who suffered a broken wrist in a cycling accident just as he’d returned from a series of baseball-related injuries) and currently sits in last place in the AL East and 8 games behind the Mariners for the American League’s final wild card spot.

The Sox also face a rather uncertain future, with J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and Hernandez all set to enter free agency at season’s end, with Xander Bogaerts an effective lock to exercise his opt-out clause and join them after pre-season extension talks broke down. Third baseman Rafael Devers remains under team control through next season but will be a free agent thereafter, also a likelihood given the similar impasse reached between player and club in pre-season discussions.

Rays Option Ryan Yarbrough, Recall Garrett Cleavinger

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The Rays have optioned left-hander Ryan Yarbrough to Triple-A Durham today and recalled fellow lefty Garrett Cleavinger to take his place, the team announced today. Yarbrough had started last night’s game against the Red Sox, and as the Rays have two days off next week, his next turn in rotation may have been skipped regardless.

Indeed, with rosters set to expand to 28 on the first of September, the move could well be a temporary measure to give manager Kevin Cash an extra arm in the bullpen. The move marks the first trip to the Rays’ active roster for Cleavinger, who was acquired from the Dodgers in an under-the-radar deadline move that sent minor league outfielder German Tapia to Los Angeles. In 4 1/3 innings across four games with the Dodgers this season, the 28-year-old southpaw posted an unsightly 10.38 ERA (and 2.08 WHIP), though he’s compiled a 2.37 ERA across 31 Triple-A innings between Oklahoma City and Durham. In the majors, he’s thus far posted a 4.70 ERA (6.25 FIP) across 23 innings in parts of three seasons with the Phillies and Dodgers.

The move marks the latest setback in what’s been an up-and-down year for the 30-year-old Yarbrough. After opening the season on the IL with groin tightness, the lefty has struggled to find consistent success, posting a 4.87 ERA (4.49 FIP) across 68 1/3 innings in the same sort of hybrid role he’s occupied since his 2018 debut.

While these numbers bear a striking resemblance to his 2021 output (5.11 ERA, 4.45 FIP), they still fall well short of his career marks (4.37 ERA, 4.10 FIP). Yarbrough’s advanced stats don’t offer a clear reason for the decline. His strikeout rate has dropped a bit, from 20.3% across his first three seasons to 17.9 % in the last two, but he’s continued to limit hard contact, allowing a hard-hit rate (the percent of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or more) of only 29.6%, nearly 10% below the league-wide average while his walk rate has inched downwards.

Regardless of the cause of the dip, it will be interesting to see how the Tampa front office handles Yarbrough in the offseason. He’s making $3.85MM this season in his second season of arbitration eligibility and could be a non-tender candidate for the financially constrained Rays.

Reds Place Mike Moustakas On 10-Day Injured List, Select Colin Moran

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The Reds have placed Mike Moustakas on the 10-day injured list with a left calf strain and selected the contract of Colin Moran, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter).

Moustakas never really got going this season, contributing -1.0 bWAR and a .214/.295/.345 triple-slash across 285 plate appearances. The soon-to-be 34-year-old, in his third season with the Reds, has one year (at $18MM) remaining on the four-year, $64MM deal he signed in December 2019 as the Reds geared up to compete in the (ultimately pandemic-shortened) 2020 season.

The Reds have since traded away several of their most valuable assets, of course (including Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Brandon Drury at the deadline and Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Tucker Barnhart in the offseason), with Moustakas one of only a few veterans remaining from the 2020 club that secured a wild-card berth in the shortened season. Beyond the financial commitment, Moustakas’ declining production and struggles with injury have made moving him difficult. Since arriving in Cincinnati, he’s compiled a .216/.300/.383 batting line — a substantial drop from his career .247/.308/.434 line — and he’s missed more than a third of 2022 already after appearing in only 62 games in 2021.

Moran, taken by the Marlins as the sixth overall pick in the 2013 amateur draft, will get his third taste of the bigs this season as Moustakas’ replacement. The corner infielder broke in with the Astros for short stints in both 2016 and 2017 before heading to Pittsburgh in 2018 as part of the package that netted Gerrit Cole. Moran had some success with the Pirates, compiling a .269/.333/.419 line across four seasons, but he was ultimately designated for assignment shortly before the lockout to clear a 40-man spot for Yoshi Tsutsugo.

In his prior two stints with the Reds this year, Moran has logged a comparatively meager .210/.299/.360 triple-slash in 117 plate appearances, well below his career .263/.327/.414 mark in a relatively small sample. He may well get a chance to build on those numbers for a rebuilding Reds squad, though. Moustakas and Donovan Solano had been sharing time at first since Joey Votto’s season ended in rotator cuff surgery, and Moran may well simply take over Moustakas’ share of the playing time there. The club may also opt to take a more extended look at him, as he’ll remain eligible for arbitration in 2023.

Orioles Face September Call-Up Decisions For Multiple Top Prospects

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The Orioles – the surprise of the 2022 season – have some decisions to make about their September roster. The biggest decisions center on top prospects Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Gunnar Henderson, the 56th, 4th, and top-ranked prospects in the game, per Baseball America.

Hall and Henderson are under consideration to join the big league club when the rosters expand, and perhaps sooner, so says General Manager Mike Elias, tweets Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. The plan has been for Hall to win the right to join the bullpen in September when rosters expand, but the evaluation process is dynamic, and nothing is guaranteed for the southpaw, who made his debut earlier this season. (It’s worth noting that, regardless of what happens this year, the plan remains for Hall to join the rotation next year.)

Fans are certainly eager to see this cluster of high-ceiling prospects in action, but they can put at least a modicum of trust in the process, as compared to seasons past. With the new CBA, the Orioles are freed from some of the service time concerns that have hampered clubs’ decision-making under the prior collective bargaining agreement. With less than 45 service days remaining in the season, Baltimore has no service reasons to keep Henderson or Hall in the minors any longer, notes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. If they feel the pair can help the big league club as they make a push for the playoffs, we should see them soon.

For Rodriguez, the issue is more a question of health than MLB readiness. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment as he recovers from a lat injury. Per Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com, Elias said, “I’m almost positive that we’re going to see him in real game action before the season’s over. As with any rehab assignment, we’ll start him in the lower minors and then we’ll get him back, hopefully, to the level in which he got injured, and we’ll take it from there.”

Of course, Elias has more to think about than just the individual development of each of these high flyers. With the team unexpectantly pushing for a playoff spot, the Orioles should prioritize fielding the best team possible. Thrusting a young player into a playoff chase for a team that’s been so far from contention for so long is no small decision, however. Suddenly, the lights are bright in Baltimore. Elias must weigh the current needs of the team against the developmental hurdles in front of Henderson, Hall, and Rodriguez. Given the process and plan that Elias has instilled in this organization, he’s likely to want to maintain the long view, even amidst a playoff race.

For now, Orioles fans will have to content themselves with watching new face-of-the-franchise Adley Rutschman lead this team. Thus far, Rutschman has done everything promised to keep this Cinderella squad in the hunt. The 24-year-old backstop has slashed .253/.363/.442 with eight home runs across 320 plate appearances. Those numbers are 34 percent better than average, as evidenced by a 134 wRC+, which isn’t just remarkable for a catcher, or for a rookie, but for anyone in spikes.

Maybe this will be the new normal for Baltimore, but especially in the AL East, where the competition will be top-shelf year after year, each opportunity for postseason play is precious. If nothing else, August/September baseball should matter in a way that Baltimore fans haven’t seen since the days of Buck Showalter, Manny Machado, and Zack Britton. If the kids come to play, all the better.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs

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The Cardinals are hopeful that Steven Matz will return from his stint on the injured list soon, but when he does, it will be as a reliever, per MLB.com’s John Denton (via Twitter). There simply isn’t time remaining in the season to build him back up as a starter. The switch is partly because of Matz, but also due to the expectation that Jack Flaherty will return to the rotation potentially next Wednesday or the following weekend, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Not to mention, deadline acquisitions Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery have excelled in the rotation since their arrival. In the bullpen, Matz can provide manager Oliver Marmol with another weapon from the left side to augment current southpaws Genesis Cabrera and JoJo Romero. Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Deadline acquisition Trevor Rosenthal left his latest appearance in Triple-A with lat soreness, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). Picking up Rosenthal was certainly a bit of a lottery ticket for the Brewers, given that Rosenthal hasn’t pitched since 2020. Rosenthal had begun to show shades of his former self, posting a 1.90 ERA over 23 2/3 innings with the Royals and Padres. The hits keep coming for Rosenthal, who suffered a hamstring strain before the lat injury, which all came while recovering from thoracic outlet surgery.
  • The Cubs will be looking to add power this offseason, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. That certainly tracks for a team with a middle infield consisting of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal, both of whom boast contact-first profiles at the dish. Hoerner has stepped up this season, both on the field and from a leadership perspective, making himself a key part of the Cubs’ future. Madrigal has had a less memorable campaign, but he may yet establish himself as the second baseman of the future. The power will have to come from somewhere, however, especially with Willson Contreras slated for free agency. Contreras’ 20 home runs rank second on the team behind Patrick Wisdom’s 22, and the long-time catcher is the team leader in isolated power with a .222 ISO.

Mariners Sign Julio Rodriguez To Extension

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The Mariners have locked up one of the sport’s brightest young stars on a record-setting contract, announcing late Friday night they’ve signed Rookie of the Year candidate Julio Rodriguez to an extension. The deal, which begins this season, guarantees him $210MM over 12 years and contains both player and club options that can extend the length of the contract and push the total value as high as $470MM. Rodriguez, an Octagon client, also reportedly receives a full no-trade clause.

It is one of the more complex contracts agreed upon in major league history. According to reports from ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, Rodriguez will make $120MM through 2029. Per Rosenthal, that takes the form of a $15MM signing bonus to be paid up front, with $105MM to be distributed between 2023-29. After the contract’s seventh year (2028), the Mariners must decide whether to effectively re-extend Rodriguez for either eight or ten years, with the size and value of that long-term “club option” dependent on how Rodriguez finishes in MVP voting.

At minimum, Seattle will be deciding on whether to extend the contract by eight years and another $200MM. That figure could escalate as follows, depending on Rodriguez’s finishes in MVP balloting over the next seven years:

  • $240MM over eight years with two or three top ten finishes
  • $260MM over eight years with four top ten finishes
  • $280MM over eight years if he wins an MVP and finishes in the top five once more or finishes in the top five of MVP balloting on three occasions
  • $350MM over ten years if he wins two MVP awards or finishes among the top five in balloting on four occasions

In the event Rodriguez hits that highest threshold and the Mariners exercise the option, the contract would max out at 18 years and $470MM in total value.

If the Mariners do not exercise their multi-year option after Year 7, Rodriguez will have a five-year, $90MM player option he can exercise after Year 8 of the contract. (That option value could escalate as high as $125.5MM based on his finishes in Silver Slugger voting and All-Star appearances). That $90MM figure is considered guaranteed money, as is the case with all player options. Between the $120MM he’ll be paid over the next eight seasons and the $90MM base value of the player option, Rodriguez’s guarantee lands at the aforementioned $210MM. There is, of course, a scenario where the Mariners do not pick up their 8- to 10-year “club option,” and Rodriguez also declines his five-year “player option,” which would then allow him to reach free agency after collecting $120MM over eight years, when he’ll be heading into his age-30 campaign.

Rodriguez, 21, broke camp with the Mariners this season and, after a rough couple of weeks to begin the year, burst into immediate stardom and has established himself as one of the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year honors. He’s currently hitting .269/.328/.471 with 20 home runs, 19 doubles, three triples and 23 steals (in 29 tries) — plus above-average defensive contributions in center field.

Those numbers are at least slightly skewed by a poor start to the year in which Rodriguez batted .136/.208/.159 with a 45% strikeout rate. Dating back to April 22, Rodriguez has mashed at a .285/.342/.508 clip. That production is about 46% better than league average after weighting for park and league, by measure of wRC+, which places him in a three-way tie with Alex Bregman and the also recently-extended Austin Riley for 12th-best among qualified Major League hitters. Rodriguez also ranks 13th in the Majors in both average exit velocity (92 mph) and hard-hit rate (49.6%) in that time, and his 14.9% barrel rate is MLB’s ninth-best mark.

Add in the fact that he’s done all of this at 21 years of age and after skipping the Triple-A level entirely, and his rookie season becomes all the more remarkable. Given that youth and lack of upper-minors seasoning, it’s quite possible that even though Rodriguez already ranks among the game’s best hitters, we’ve yet to see the best he has to offer.

From a defensive standpoint, Rodriguez has more than held his own in center field this season, turning in positive marks in Defensive Runs Saved (2), Ultimate Zone Rating (0.3) and Outs Above Average (5). Many scouting reports penned before his MLB debut suggested that as Rodriguez ages and continues to fill out, he could be destined for a corner outfield slot, but given his 70- or even 80-grade raw power and the solid work he’s flashed in center this season, he’ll have both the bat and likely the defensive chops to be an above-average contributor in right or left field.

The $210MM guarantee will give Rodriguez the record for largest contract ever signed by a player with under a year of Major League service time. That distinction currently belongs to Rays shortstop Wander Franco, who inked an 11-year, $182MM extension last November.

Rodriguez will topple that mark with ease, although it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. Franco wasn’t promoted until midseason and inked his deal in the winter, when the Rays had six full seasons of club control left over him. Because Rodriguez made the Opening Day roster, he’ll get a full year of service in 2022 and would “only” have had five additional years of club control remaining. In that respect, he could technically be considered more of a one-plus player (between one and two years of service time), although even when viewing the contract through that lens, it’s still a record-setting agreement; Ke’Bryan Hayes’ $70MM extension in Pittsburgh was the previous record for a player with between one and two years of service.

Regardless of which service bracket one thinks more aptly applies to Rodriguez, this new deal now stands as the largest contract ever promised to a player with fewer than two years of Major League service time. In that aspect, Rodriguez and the Major League Baseball Players Association are surely pleased to see the precedent for young, superstar extensions moved even further forward.

All that said, there’s still potential for the contract to be quite favorable for the Mariners. Rodriguez would’ve likely earned near the league minimum in salary over the next two seasons (plus any payouts from the newly collectively bargained bonus pool for pre-arbitration players). A player with his upside and early dominance would likely have done quite well in arbitration, and while we can never know exactly how much he might’ve earned through that process, arbitration is generally based on precedent. Looking for recent comparables, Mookie Betts secured $57.5MM for his three arbitration seasons. If we put Rodriguez into that broad vicinity, his remaining five years of club control might have netted him somewhere in the range of $60MM — perhaps a few million more if he’d taken home an MVP Award and/or pushed the Betts precedent a bit further.

Rodriguez will be paid $15MM on average over the next eight seasons, with at least two free agent seasons bought out. That obviously pales in comparison to what he could’ve earned on the open market had he gone year-to-year and hit the free-agent market in advance of his age-27 season, and the Mariners will have an opportunity to keep him from hitting free agency at any point in his prime. That risk-reward tradeoff is the nature of early contract extensions, of course. There’s obviously ample risk of injury or downturn in performance for Rodriguez, all of which is baked into the relative discount rate for those open-market seasons.

From a team payroll vantage point, there’s ample room for Seattle to make a commitment of this nature. A significant portion of the team’s recent rebuild was dedicated to clearing long-term clutter from the books — e.g., the Robinson Cano trade — and the team’s long-term commitments are now rather minimal. Left-hander Robbie Ray is signed through the 2026 season, as is shortstop J.P. Crawford, but they’ll combine for just $37MM at that point. That would’ve only been Rodriguez’s fifth big league season, so the salaries on his contract will not quite have escalated to their maximum levels.

Looking more short-term, the books are also still accommodating. The Mariners, who’ll see veterans Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier reach free agency at season’s end, had just over $63MM in guaranteed money on the 2023 payroll prior to this contract. That number doesn’t include an $8MM option for righty Chris Flexen, nor does it include a handful of arbitration raises: Luis Castillo (earning $7.35MM this season), Diego Castillo ($2.315MM), Paul Sewald ($1.735MM), Ty France (pre-arb) and Erik Swanson (pre-arb).

It’s a momentous day in Mariners history, one that firmly drives home the organization’s “win-now” mentality as it inches toward a postseason berth that would smash a two-decade playoff drought — currently the longest in major North American professional sports. There’s risk for both parties, but the contract is a continuation of the ever-growing trend of extending young stars at nine-figure rates that guarantee a player’s entire prime. The contract also locks Rodriguez down as the new face of Mariners baseball for the next decade-plus, ensuring them a charismatic, marketable star around whom to both build the roster and sell the product to the fanbase.

Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com first reported that the two sides were nearing an extension worth more than $200MM guaranteed and as much as $450MM in total value. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the contract length and exact guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the agreement was in place. Passan and  provided specifics on the financials. Rosenthal also reported the deal contained a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brendan McKay Suffers UCL Injury

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Rays left-hander Brendan McKay suffered an injury to the UCL in his throwing elbow, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). McKay, who suffered the injury on the first pitch of yesterday’s appearance with Triple-A Durham, will go for a second opinion. Topkin notes that the team isn’t yet sure whether he’ll require surgery.

Whether or not McKay goes under the knife, one has to feel awful for the 26-year-old. A former #4 overall pick and top prospect, McKay progressed up the minor league ladder rather quickly and reached the majors in 2019. He tossed 49 innings over 13 appearances (including 11 starts), only managing a 5.14 ERA but posting an above-average 25.9% strikeout rate. In spite of some home run troubles, the former Louisville two-way star looked like a potential rotation building block for Tampa Bay.

In the three years since then, McKay hasn’t thrown a single major league pitch. That’s on account of an almost unfathomable stretch of poor injury luck. He missed the shortened 2020 season on account of a shoulder problem that eventually required surgery. The rehab from that procedure kept him out of action until late June 2021. Just a few outings into a minor league rehab stint, McKay suffered a flexor strain in his forearm that again proved to be season-ending. He was then diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and underwent surgery to correct that issue last November.

McKay had been on the injured list for all of 2022 as he recovered from the TOS procedure. He set out on a rehab assignment in mid-July and spent his allotted 30-day window pitching back to Triple-A. The Rays just formally reinstated McKay from the IL on Tuesday but kept him in Durham on an optional assignment. How the club proceeds from here will be determined by the results of the upcoming evaluation, but the revelation of ligament damage certainly means another trip to the IL and would appear likely to end his 2022 season.

Mets Release Johneshwy Fargas, Outright Nate Fisher

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The Mets have released outfielder Johneshwy Fargas and infielder Tzu-Wei Lin from their Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse, per Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. They’ve also assigned lefty Nate Fisher to Syracuse after he passed through outright waivers unclaimed, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets.

Fargas, 27, made his big league debut with the 2021 Mets after their outfield was hit with a barrage of injuries last summer. Fargas himself fell victim to that injury deluge after just seven games, suffering a sprained AC joint when colliding with the outfield wall on a leaping catch. He went 6-for-21 with a few highlight-reel moments in the outfield that, paired the effusive energy he displayed on both sides of the ball, made him a quick fan favorite in Queens. Fargas was designated for assignment, claimed by the Cubs, and eventually returned to the Mets on a minor league deal over the winter.

It’s been a tough season in the minors for Fargas, who carries a combined .212/.305/.340 batting line in 301 plate appearances between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. He’s still gone 28-for-30 in stolen base attempts, underscoring speed that allows him to provide value both on the bases and in the outfield. He’s played all three outfield positions in the minors this season, though the bulk of his time has been spent in center.

Fisher, meanwhile, just received his first major league call over the weekend. The 26-year-old tossed three scoreless innings of mop-up work and was promptly designated for assignment. After going unclaimed on waivers, he’ll head back to Syracuse, where he has a 3.12 ERA across 43 1/3 frames in 12 appearances (ten starts). The Nebraska product remains in the organization but no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster.

Big Hype Prospects: Alvarez, Baty, Crow-Armstrong, Langeliers, Bello

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Julio Rodriguez is on the verge of a massive contract extension. Who will be the next prospect to ink a mega-deal? Today’s Big Hype Prospects won’t answer that question, but it’s possible we’ll discuss them all the same.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)
141 PA, 6 HR, .180/.340/.378

Despite the triumphant return of Jacob deGrom, the Mets divisional aspirations are endangered. Their once dominant lead over the Braves has dwindled to just two games. The club has received exactly 0.0 WAR from their catchers. Alvarez, whose combination of discipline and rare raw power can lead to some irresponsible comps (like former Met Mike Piazza), has held his own at Triple-A. The low batting average is the result of an unfortunate .209 BABIP. Low BABIPs in the minors can be symptomatic of a flaw. Sometimes, they’re just bad luck over a small sample. Alvarez had similar issues in High-A last season (.260 BABIP) so it’s possible his plodding speed and pull-heavy approach might yield an all-or-nothing slugger, especially early in his career. Defensive reviews are mixed and can sometimes leave a Gary Sanchez-like taste on the tongue. He has the capacity and work ethic to stick at the position, but maybe his bat is too potent to subject to the rigors of battery work?

Alvarez would certainly upgrade the Mets lineup over the likes of James McCann and Tomas Nido. However, they’re both talented defenders who have experience with the Mets pitching staff. If New York wants to experiment with Alvarez ahead of the postseason, now is the time to do it.

Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (MLB)
35 PA, 1 HR, .161/.235/.258

Baty’s first exposure to Major League pitching hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. He had only 26 successful plate appearances at Triple-A before he was called upon. Much of his season was spent in Double-A where he hit .312/.406/.544 in 394 plate appearances. Baty is a disciplined hitter who makes hard, low-angle contact. With 91-mph average and 113-mph max exit velocities, he’s already demonstrated his power in just 24 batted ball events. His tendency to keep the ball on the ground could yield a contact profile something like a less-extreme Yandy Diaz. Whereas Diaz is nigh immune to strikeouts, Baty has a bit of swing-and-miss in his game.

Eduardo Escobar is nearing a return which could spell the end of the Baty experiment – at least for 2022. It’s also worth noting that his struggles have occurred over just nine games. He wouldn’t be the first player to need a couple beats before catching his stride.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHC (A+)
235 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .286/.332/.521

Known to many prospect-watchers by his initials “PCA,” Crow-Armstrong was acquired from the Mets as part of the Javier Baez trade in 2021. The Cubs instigated a mechanical change to his swing which has led to above average pull-side power this season. Including a thorough stomping of Low-A pitchers, PCA has 16 home runs and 29 stolen bases across 418 total plate appearances. He’s a gifted center fielder who was originally expected to fit in the Majors as a defensive savant. The addition of power to his profile could unlock a star-level ceiling. There remain issues with his bat including elevated strikeout and swinging strike rates. He’s young for his level and showed better plate discipline in the past. Consider him a volatile work-in-progress who now appears likely to have a role as a future regular.

Shea Langeliers, 24, C, OAK (MLB)
36 PA, 2 HR, .294/.306/.647

A key component of the Matt Olson trade, Langeliers has made an impactful debut. He’s already popped two home runs, four doubles, and a triple in just nine games. That’s par for the course with Langeliers. He has middling plate discipline, plus power, and a below average feel for contact. When he does connect, it tends to be loud. His best trait is defense where he’s expected to be a comfortably positive contributor. The presence of Sean Murphy is only a temporary impediment – it’s widely assumed the veteran Athletic will be traded over the winter.

Brayan Bello, 23, SP, BOS (MLB)
22 IP, 9.00 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 7.36 ERA

Recently returned from the injured list, Bello had his best big league outing against the division rival Blue Jays. He tossed five innings of two-run ball while compiling seven strikeouts. Bello has a four-pitch repertoire led by a bowling ball 96.5-mph sinker. He also has a slightly harder fastball he can locate up in the zone. A slider and frequently-used changeup round out his pitch mix. In 18 minor league appearances he posted 12.10 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, and a 2.34 ERA. His carrying trait is an over-60 percent ground ball rate which, if maintained, would rank second among qualified starters between southpaw Framber Valdez (67.5%) and right-hander Logan Webb (58.4%). Like many sinker specialists making their debuts, Bello has struggled with free passes. He got away with iffy command in the minors because his stuff played even when thrown down the pike. He’s liable to need an adjustment period in the Majors.

Five More

Mark Vientos, NYM (22): A possible alternative to Baty and Escobar, Vientos is red hot for the month of August. He’s batting .403/.448/.661 with four home runs in 67 plate appearances. He draws negative reviews for his third base defense and is in the process of switching over to first base. The bat appears as if it should play in the Majors at either position, though he might be a tad ordinary at the cold corner. He’s just shy of a 30 percent strikeout rate for a second consecutive season in the upper-minors.

Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (22): Rodriguez has been sidelined for nearly three months with a lat strain. He is due to face hitters in a simulated game later this week. It’s possible he could make his debut in late-September.

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Rumors abound of an impending callup for Henderson. Club officials are supposedly pondering the implications on his development. Henderson hasn’t exactly knocked down doors in August, batting .259/.364/.435 with 12.1 percent walk and 31.3 percent strikeout rates.

Robert Hassell III, WSH (21): One of the prizes acquired for Juan Soto, the Nationals aggressively promoted Hassell to Double-A where he’s hit .147/.237/.206 through his first eight games. Like Baty above, it’s not uncommon for young players to scuffle when first presented with a new challenge. And even Mike Trout has eight-game slumps. Strikeouts have been an issue for Hassell since joining the Nats org.

Curtis Mead, TB, (21): Recently recovered from a month-long injury to his elbow, Mead has five hits and two walks over 14 plate appearances. The right-handed slugger could make a useful platoonmate with David Peralta, especially once rosters expand in a few days. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter so getting a jump on his service clock should be seen as acceptable – assuming the Rays can find a 40-man spot. He’s hitting .299/.391/.536 on the year, mostly at Double-A.

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