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Archives for August 2022

Mets, Giants Swap J.D. Davis For Darin Ruf

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The Mets have acquired first baseman/left fielder Darin Ruf from the Giants for third baseman J.D. Davis according to SNY’s Andy Martino.  According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Giants also picked up southpaw Thomas Szapucki and A-ball pitchers Nick Zwack and Carson Seymour in the trade.

At the risk of stating the obvious, the trade suggests the Mets think Ruf can help them more this year than Davis, as both are bat-first right-handed hitters.  Ruf, who recently turned 36, continues to serve as a lefty-masher this year.  He’s got a 155 wRC+ in 337 plate appearances against southpaws since returning from KBO in 2020, which ranks fourth in all of MLB.  Ruf actually succeeded against righties as well in 2020-21, but has struggled against them this year.  He’s earning $3MM on the season, of which about $1MM remains.  He also has a $3.5MM club option for 2022 with a $250K buyout.  Ruf and fellow new acquisition Daniel Vogelbach make for an excellent platoon at designated hitter for the Mets.

Davis, 29, is under team control as an arbitration eligible player for both the 2023 and ’24 seasons.  Though not known for his glove, unlike Ruf, Davis is capable of playing third base.  Since coming over from the Astros in a January 2019 trade, Davis has posted a 125 wRC+ for the Mets in 1,100 plate appearances.  He hasn’t shown a significant platoon split in that period, and has flashed eye-popping Statcast metrics at times.  This year, however, Davis has posted just a 102 wRC+ for the Mets in 207 plate appearances and hasn’t been drawing many starts of late.  Davis became particularly expendable with the Mets’ signing of Eduardo Escobar back in November plus the acquisition of Vogelbach.  Davis played in 140 games for the Mets in 2019, but has played in only 195 games since 2020 due to injuries.

In Szapucki, the Giants get a lefty with a pair of big league appearances to his name.  Szapucki has mostly operated as a starter in the minors, posting a strong 21.6 K-BB% in 64 Triple-A innings this year.  Prior to last season, Baseball America rated him as a 45-grade prospect, saying he can “land three pitches for strikes,” and needed to recover his velocity after spending 2020 at the Mets’ alternate site.  Szapucki has indeed done so, working at 90.9 miles per hour in his lone 2021 MLB appearance but pitching at 95.1 in a brutal May 25th outing at San Francisco in which he surrendered nine earned runs while recording only four outs.  Apparently Giants brass liked what they saw in that outing, despite their hitters beating up on Szapucki with four home runs.

Zwack, a 24-year-old southpaw, moved to High-A in May and has excelled with a 22.8 K-BB%.  A 17th round pick in 2021 out of Xavier University, it remains to be seen if Zwack can sustain his success when facing opponents closer to his own age.  Seymour, a 23-year-old righty, moved into the Brooklyn Cyclones’ rotation around the same time as Zwack.  With a 25.0 K-BB% rate, he’s been successful as well aside from the longball.  Seymour was drafted by the Mets in the sixth round in 2021 out of Kansas State.

Blue Jays Interested In Raisel Iglesias

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The Blue Jays are active in their hunt for pitching and have shown interest in Angels closer Raisel Iglesias, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

The fact that the Blue Jays are interested in Iglesias is not surprising. For one thing, they are known to be on the hunt for bullpen upgrades, having already been connected to relievers such as Michael Fulmer and acquiring Zach Pop and Anthony Bass earlier today. The team’s relievers as a whole have been middling this year, with a 3.89 ERA that’s 15th in the majors, a 4.20 FIP that’s 25th, 3.96 xFIP that’s 15th and a 3.64 SIERA that’s also 15th. For a team with postseason aspirations, there’s certainly room for improvement there.

Iglesias is also a fairly logical hurler for them to covet, as he’s been one of the best closers in baseball over the past six years. Since the start of the 2017 season, he has 150 saves, trailing only Kenley Jansen and Edwin Diaz in that timeframe. In that same window, Iglesias has a 2.99 ERA, 32% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate.

However, it would be surprising to see the Angels consider a move, given that they just signed him to a four-year, $58MM deal about eight months ago. Still, with a 43-59 record and a lost season, perhaps the Angels would consider shedding some payroll by subtracting from their bullpen.

Royals Discussing Several Veterans In Trade Talks

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1:55pm: Starter Brad Keller is also garnering interest, per Feinsand. The 27-year-old righty has a 4.18 ERA on the year, with a tepid 16% strikeout rate but above-average 51.5% ground ball rate. He’s making $4.825MM this year and can be controlled via arbitration for another season.

10:41am: With just under seven hours until the deadline, the Royals could be an important factor. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the markets for outfielder Michael A. Taylor, as well as relievers Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow are “heating up.”

The fact that the Royals are discussing trading away pieces of their major league roster is not surprising, given their place in the standings. They are 41-62 on the year and well out of contention. The question now is how much selling they’re willing to do. They’ve already traded Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees, though he was a pure rental, heading into free agency at the end of the year. The three players mentioned by Feinsand all come with extra control and don’t strictly need to be traded, though there would be reasons to consider offers on all three.

In the case of Taylor, he was headed into free agency this time last year but signed a two-year extensions to stay in KC. That means the Royals could keep him around for the 2023 campaign, but he’s having the best season of his career at the plate. His .280/.352/.395 slash line amounts to a 114 wRC+, or 14% above league average. In each of the previous four seasons, he was between 71 and 77 in that department. He’s also dropped his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate relative to previous seasons, suggesting that his better production is a result of an improved approach at the plate as opposed to mere luck.

He’s also making a modest $4.5MM salary this year, though with some incentives that could increase that number. Still, with only about one third of the season remaining, any acquiring team would be adding less than $2MM to their ledger. That’s a small price to pay for a guy hitting at an above-average level. Of course, Taylor’s primary calling card is his defense and the center field market has been notoriously thin. Teams have been trying to acquire guys like Bryan Reynolds, Cedric Mullins and Ramon Laureano for quite some time, without success so far. Perhaps that will allow the Royals to get an offer good enough that they take and allow Kyle Isbel to take over in center field.

As for Barlow and Staumont, they both come with multiple years of control, with Barlow set to reach free agency after the 2024 season and Staumont one year later. However, relief pitching is always in high demand this time of year, with just about every contender looking to bolster their bullpen with an intriguing arm or two. The Royals can certainly opt for hanging onto them for future seasons, but relievers are also notoriously subject to fluctuations from season to season. If the offers are good enough, the Royals could give some thought to taking what’s in front of them before either pitcher suffers an injury or a dip in performance.

For now, though, both are having good seasons and would find plenty of interest from rival teams. Barlow is having his fourth straight solid season but has changed his results this year, getting fewer strikeouts and more ground balls. From 2019 through 2021, Barlow threw 174 2/3 innings with a 3.45 ERA, 30% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 40.8% ground ball rate. This year, he has a 2.36 ERA while getting strikeouts just 24% of the time but grounders at a 50.4% clip while also cutting his walk rate to 6.5%. All that’s come while pitching in high-leverage situations, as Barlow racked up 16 saves last year and 17 already this year. He’s making $2.4MM on the year and has two more passes through arbitration to go. Considering all of that, it’s unsurprising he’s in high demand around the league.

Staumont isn’t quite at Barlow’s level but is still interesting nonetheless. Since debuting in 2019, he’s thrown 141 1/3 MLB innings with a 3.18 ERA and 26.5% strikeout rate. His 12.5% walk rate and 33.6% grounder rate are both worse than league average, but he’s still plenty effective. He won’t reach arbitration until this winter, meaning he could fit into the budget of any team and would still have three years of control remaining.

All three of these players have reasons for other teams to be interested, the question will be how much the Royals are willing to part with them. The club has had aspirations for competing in recent years but hasn’t yet succeeded. Trading any of these three could hurt the roster in the immediate future but would also likely add prospects that could help a few years down the line.

Blue Jays Acquire Zach Pop And Anthony Bass From Marlins

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The Blue Jays have announced that they have acquired relievers Zach Pop, Anthony Bass and a player to be named later from the Marlins, who will receive prospect Jordan Groshans in return.

This will be the second stint with the Blue Jays for Bass, 34, who was with them in the shortened 2020 season. That year, Bass threw 25 2/3 innings out of the Toronto bullpen, putting up an ERA of 3.51 along with a 62.3% ground ball rate, 21% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.

He reached free agency at the end of that campaign and signed with the Marlins on a two-year deal with a club option for 2023. In the first year of that deal, he put up fairly similar numbers to 2020, but he’s found another gear this year. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently, Bass has started throwing his slider more this season and found excellent results. In 44 2/3 frames this year, he has a miniscule 1.41 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate that’s a career high. He’s also only walking 5.8% of batters faced, which is well below league average. He’s making a $3MM salary this year, with around $1MM left to be paid out, and has a $3MM club option for next year. By picking him up, the Blue Jays are adding a veteran that they know, having a career year on an affordable contract.

Pop, on the other hand, is just 25 years old, turning 26 next month. He was originally drafted by the Dodgers but went to the Orioles in the Manny Machado trade. In the 2020 Rule 5 draft, he was selected by the Diamondbacks, who flipped him to the Marlins. A ground ball specialist, Pop stuck with the Marlins for the entire 2021 season, throwing 54 2/3 innings out of their bullpen with a 4.12 ERA, 57.6% ground ball rate, 20.7% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate.

Here in 2022, he’s been bounced between Triple-A and the big leagues throughout the year, having been optioned and recalled three times. In his 20 MLB innings, he has a 3.60 ERA, 63.1% ground ball rate, 16.9% strikeout rate and 2.4% walk rate. In 24 1/3 innings at Triple-A, he’s posted fairly similar results, albeit with a few more walks. He logged a full year of service time last year but will fall short of the two-year mark this season because of that time spent in the minors. That means the Jays will be able to keep him around for five more seasons beyond this one, with Pop also capable of being optioned between the majors and the minors in the future. He comes with less of a track record than Bass but is cheap and controllable.

For the Marlins, they floated around the playoff race but have fallen off in recent weeks, currently 47-56 and 8 1/2 games out of a postseason spot. They are using some of their bullpen pieces to acquire Groshans, a prospect with strong pedigree but disappointing results this year. Selected by the Jays with the 12th overall pick in the 2018 draft, he was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the sport by Baseball America from 2019 to 2021. He was limited by injuries to just 23 games in 2019 and then saw the minor league wiped out in 2020.

He got back into a groove with a fine season in 2021, hitting seven home runs and slashing .291/.367/.450 in 75 Double-A games. However, this year has been a downturn, with Groshans struggling at Triple-A. He’s always had a good approach at the plate, walking almost as much as he strikes out, and that’s still true this year. His 12.5% walk rate and 16.5% strikeout rate are both much better than average, but he’s shown absolutely no power production on the season. He has one home run in 279 plate appearances on the season, leading to a tepid slash line of .250/.348/.296, wRC+ of 82.

For Miami, they are surely hoping that Groshans’ will eventually tap into more power to combine with his keen eye and bat-to-ball skills. He’s only 22 years old and could certainly still find another gear in that department. Groshans had played mostly shortstop thus far in his career but has gradually spent more time at third, with many prospect evaluators expecting him to eventually settle in at the hot corner. If that is indeed the case, he will certainly need to tap into more power in order to be a viable big league third baseman.

For the Blue Jays, they’ve added a couple of interesting pieces to a middling bullpen as they gear up for a stretch run. For the struggling Marlins, they’ve bought low on a prospect that was once considered one of the best in the game, hoping to find some value for the future.

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet was the first to report a deal involving Pop and Groshans. Craig Mish of Sportsgrid was the first to report that Anthony Bass was also heading to the Jays. Jon Heyman of the New York Post relayed that the Jays would also get a smaller piece, which Davidi relayed as a player to be named later.

Eric Hosmer Rejects Trade To Nationals; Padres Still Have Deal For Juan Soto

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Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer has rejected a trade to the Nationals, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  Both reporters have made clear that the Padres’ blockbuster deal to acquire Juan Soto from the Nats remains in place.

Hosmer’s eight-year contract with the Padres, signed in February 2018, includes limited no-trade protection of which the Nationals are a part.  It appears the Nationals and Padres agreed to versions of the Soto trade with and without Hosmer, word of the larger Soto trade leaked to the baseball media, and then the Padres took it to Hosmer to decide.  As is his contractual right, Hosmer chose not to move from the Padres, the team he chose as a free agent, to the last-place Nationals.

2022 marks Hosmer’s fifth year as a Padre, a tenure that has mostly disappointed outside of the shortened 2020 season.  Hosmer has a 104 wRC+ in 934 plate appearances since the beginning of the 2021 campaign, so he’s still modestly above-average with the bat.  He’s owed about $7MM for the remainder of this season, plus $39MM for 2023-25.  He can opt out after this season, but that’s an unlikely scenario.

More importantly, upon the completion of the 2022 season, Hosmer will become a 10-and-5 player with the right to reject a trade to any team, not just the ten currently on his list.  With first baseman Josh Bell apparently still headed to the Padres in the Soto deal and about four hours remaining until the no-trade deadline, Padres GM A.J. Preller is surely motivated to make the best deal he can for Hosmer, whether to one of the 19 teams not covered in his no-trade clause, or at least with a team to which Hosmer is willing to go.  The Padres are set to host the Rockies at 3:10pm central time today, the only game starting prior to the 5pm deadline.

With Hosmer’s contract generally considered to be underwater, the Padres would likely have to include a good prospect (of which they’ve surrendered many in the last few days) to find a taker.  Even with a Hosmer trade, getting under the $230MM competitive balance tax is likely impossible for the Padres given the additions of Soto, Bell, and Josh Hader.  Last year, only the Dodgers and Padres paid the competitive balance tax, then set at $210MM.  That marked the first time the Padres paid the tax since it was instituted.

Rockies Fielding Trade Offers On Chad Kuhl, Carlos Estevez

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The Rockies are receiving trade interest on starter Chad Kuhl and reliever Carlos Estevez, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Feinsand suggests both pitchers could find themselves on the move before this evening’s deadline.

It’d be a bit surprising if the Rockies followed through on a Kuhl deal, as reports from over the weekend suggested they were optimistic about their chances of keeping the right-hander on a contract extension. Whether Colorado fielding trade interest is a matter of simple due diligence on the front office’s part or an indication they’ve not as close as hoped on an extension isn’t clear, but it seems general manager Bill Schmidt and his staff are at least open to offers over the coming hours.

Kuhl, who signed a $3MM guarantee over the winter, had excellent numbers early this season. He carried a 3.56 ERA through the end of May. He’s hit a major rough patch of late, though, allowing five-plus runs in three of his last five starts while failing to work into the sixth inning on any occasion. Since tossing a complete game shutout against the Dodgers on June 27, he’s allowed 22 runs in 20 2/3 innings. That has brought his season line up to a 4.59 ERA with a personal-low 16.6% strikeout rate.

Like Kuhl, Estévez is an impending free agent. The 29-year-old has made 41 appearances this season, pitching to a 4.79 ERA through 35 2/3 innings. He’s striking out a below-average 21.9% of opponents against an elevated 11.6% walk rate. Those aren’t great bottom line numbers, but the 6’6″ hurler still has 95th percentile fastball velocity and can limit damage. His hard hit percentage is in the 55th percentile and his barrel percentage in the 61 percentile. For a pitcher who plays his home games at Coors Field, that’s certainly important.

The Rockies are 46-58 and ten games out of a playoff spot, making them sellers on paper. However, that’s also been the case in the past and they have still avoided trading obvious candidates. Last year, they held onto C.J. Cron, Trevor Story and Jon Gray, despite all three heading into free agency. With Kuhl, there have been rumors of his interest in signing an extension, much like Cron did last year. Whether the club would pivot and strike a deal including him or Estévez remains to be seen.

Juan Soto Talks Between Padres, Nationals Reportedly Gaining Momentum

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10:33am: There’s growing momentum in talks between the Padres and Nationals, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Jim Bowden of the Athletic. No deal has yet been finalized, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post hears similarly that there’s “optimism” the Padres can pull off a deal.

7:41am: There is a “growing sense” that the Padres are the likeliest landing spot for not only Soto but also Josh Bell, tweets Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. There’s some momentum in those talks, he adds. Similarly, the Post’s Jesse Dougherty tweets that the Nationals are beginning to narrow the field.

San Diego, of course, already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base, but they’ve been trying for more than a year to unload the remainder of that contract. Speculatively speaking, if the Nats truly want to maximize the return on Soto (and perhaps Bell), they could be the ones to absorb the remaining three years and $39MM on Hosmer’s contract themselves. The trio of Hosmer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg would be a lot of underwater contracts for one team, of course, but the Nats have little else on the payroll in the immediate future.

7:12am: Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is now under 12 hours away, and the Juan Soto trade possibility that has captivated the entire sport and its fanbase remains unresolved. As of yesterday, the Soto auction was generally believed to be a three-team bidding war, with the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers all reported to be heavily involved. That doesn’t preclude another team (or teams) from jumping in to make a late push, of course; it’d frankly rate as something of a surprise if that didn’t happen, in fact. Teams will miss out on other targets, priorities will pivot, and stances on “off limits” prospects will soften.

Up until this point, a sticking point for the Cardinals has been their unwillingness to include young outfielder Dylan Carlson and their very best prospects, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. The 23-year-old Carlson is known be of interest to the Nats as an immediate outfield plug-in, and as a former first-round pick and top-10 overall prospect (per Baseball America), that’s not surprising — even if he’s been more of a solid regular than a star to this point in his young career. The switch-hitting Carlson is batting .260/.334/.426 dating back to last season, and he’s cut down his strikeout rate considerably this season.

Carlson can be controlled another four years beyond the current season and is capable of handling all three outfield spots. There’s perhaps a sense that given his youth and pedigree, he has another gear that he’s not yet tapped into. Further clouding the Cardinals possibility, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that Washington may not be as high on lefty Matthew Liberatore as others in the industry; The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote something similar a couple weeks back.

Turning to the Padres, the health of one of their own top young arms, southpaw MacKenzie Gore, is a potential complication. Gore has been shut down with with an elbow strain. He’s expected to avoid surgery, but the specter of an arm injury for a potential key pitcher in the deal has surely altered the Nats’ valuation. The Padres, meanwhile, are now over the luxury-tax threshold after their stunning addition of Josh Hader yesterday. They’ve reportedly been loath to cross that line for a second consecutive season. However, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests that if it means acquiring both Hader and Soto, the Padres “won’t mind blowing completely past” the tax line.

Over in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have become increasingly optimistic about their chances over the past couple days, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. The Dodgers’ perennially deep farm system is rife with top prospects — they have seven of Baseball America’s top 100 farmhands at the moment — and they also possess controllable young big leaguers of potential interest. Both Harris and Heyman suggest infielder Gavin Lux (four more years of team control) and righty Dustin May (nearing return from Tommy John surgery, with three more years of control) as potential targets for Washington.

As of yesterday morning, the Yankees were reported to be a “long shot,” the Rangers weren’t said to be particularly aggressive, and Mariners president Jerry Dipoto had gone on record to suggest his team is unlikely to land Soto. Adding to that list of teams that inquired but seems unlikely to be a serious player, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians looked into Soto but talks never gained traction. Washington was interested in top Cleveland pitching prospect Daniel Espino, but health was again a factor in talks, as he’s been out since April due to a knee injury.

Orioles Trade Jorge Lopez To Twins

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10:11am: The Twins and Orioles have announced the trade.

9:36am: The Twins and Orioles are in agreement on a trade sending All-Star closer Jorge Lopez from Baltimore to Minnesota, as first reported Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Sun. The Twins are sending left-handed pitching prospect Cade Povich, right-hander Yennier Cano and a pair of pitching prospects to Baltimore in return, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. Right-hander Juan Nunez and lefty Juan Rojas are the other two names in the deal, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Jorge Lopez | D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

Lopez, 29, has enjoyed one of the most remarkable turnarounds in Major League Baseball this season, going from a waiver claim at risk of losing his roster spot in Baltimore for much of last season to a first-time All-Star who’s pitched his way into the ranks of the game’s elite relievers. The former second-round pick and top prospect never took off as a starting pitcher but has been outstanding since moving to the bullpen on a full-time basis late last season. Thus far in 2022, Lopez has tossed 48 innings with a 1.68 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate and an enormous 60% ground-ball rate that ranks fifth in baseball among MLB relievers.

It’s a short sample, to be sure, but Lopez’s move to the ’pen last August served as a portent for the breakout to come. He began heavily favoring his sinker over his four-seamer, watched both his ground-ball rate and velocity make substantial jumps, and tossed 8 1/3 innings with just two runs, a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio and a 66.7% grounder rate. Dating back to last year’s shift to to the bullpen, Lopez has a 1.75 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 61% grounder rate and a 98 mph average velocity on his sinker.

The Twins are clearly confident in his ability to sustain this newfound production, and adding to his appeal is the fact that Lopez is controlled all the way through the 2024 season. He’s also earning an eminently affordable $1.5MM this year, so he’ll barely impact the 2022 payroll and won’t break the bank in either 2023 or 2024.

Lopez gives the Twins a power-armed closer to pair with flamethrowing rookie Jhoan Duran and breakout righty Griffin Jax at the back of what has been an otherwise awful bullpen. Much like Duran and Jax, Lopez gives manager Rocco Baldelli the flexibility of knowing he can cover more than one inning, if needed. Eleven of Lopez’s 44 appearances this season have seen him record at least four outs.

Headlining the Orioles’ return for Lopez is the 22-year-old Povich, whom Minnesota selected out of the University of Nebraska in the 2021 draft. A relatively soft-tossing lefty with good command in college, Povich’s velocity jumped into the 94-96 mph range upon his shift to pro ball. He’s made 16 starts with the Twins’ Class-A Advanced affiliate this season, pitching to a 4.46 ERA but a far more impressive 31.8% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 44.3% ground-ball rate. He ranked 22nd in the Twins’ farm system at both FanGraphs and MLB.com, and 21st at Baseball America. Each of those scouting reports peg Povich as at least a back-of-the-rotation arm with the potential to add more ceiling due to his projectable frame and the potential for even further velocity gains.

Cano, 28, received a $750K signing bonus as an international free agent upon leaving Cuba back in 2019. He made his big league debut this season and has surrendered 14 runs in 13 2/3 innings, flashing an average heater of 95.8 mph along the way. The 6’4″ righty has had a far more impressive showing in Triple-A St. Paul, working to a 1.90 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate in 23 2/3 innings with the Saints.

That’s the first time in Cano’s career that he’s managed to string together a run of solid command, however. He’s walked 11 of the 70 big league hitters he’s faced (15.7%) and, when looking at his career as a whole, has issued a free pass to 12.2% of his opponents since signing in Minnesota. FanGraphs tabbed him 38th among Twins prospects earlier this year, labeling him as a potential single-inning reliever with command issues but an effective splitter.

Nunez is a 21-year-old righty who’s spent the year thus far with Minnesota’s affiliate in the Florida Complex League. He’s pitched to a 4.85 ERA with an enormous 36.2% strikeout rate and a solid 7.7% walk rate. He’s not particularly young for the level, but it’s an impressive K-BB profile even if the bottom-line ERA has been inflated by a .362 average on balls in play and a 55.2% left-on base rate.

Rojas, meanwhile, is pitching with the same FCL affiliate despite being three years younger than both Nunez and the average age of  players in the league as a whole. He’s turned in a 3.60 ERA in 30 innings while showing outstanding rate stats: 32.4% strikeout, 3.4% walk, 48.6% ground-ball. Obviously, both he and Nunez are extremely long-term plays, as neither figures to sniff the Major Leagues for several seasons. Still, adding a pair of live-armed prospects to the lower levels of the system right now will ideally give the O’s some minor league depth and upside once the upper-level group of current top prospects has begun to solidify itself in the Majors.

Baltimore won’t acquire anyone immediately ranked among the sport’s very best prospects — or even presently among the Twins’ very best farmhands — but Povich is the type of projectable college arm with some recent helium who could soon find himself ranked among the Orioles’ top arms. Still, it’s hard not to like the deal from the Twins’ vantage point, as they managed to address a dire need in the bullpen for both the current and two subsequent seasons without pillaging the top levels of their farm system. That should prove pivotal when looking to bolster the rotation and perhaps further deepen the bullpen and the bench in the final hours leading up to the deadline.

Braves, Astros Swap Will Smith For Jake Odorizzi

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Aug. 2: The teams have formally announced the trade.

Aug. 1: The Astros are acquiring reliever Will Smith from the Braves for starter Jake Odorizzi, reports Mark Berman of Fox 26 (Twitter link).

Odorizzi has been seen as an expendable piece for the Astros, perhaps at least since he was left off the club’s ALDS roster last October.  He’s worked as part of a six-man rotation this year in Houston, but Lance McCullers Jr. is close to making his season debut as he recovers from a forearm strain.  The 32-year-old Odorizzi has pitched to a solid 3.75 ERA in a dozen starts for the Astros this year, averaging exactly five innings per outing.  He’s a flyball pitcher who has never been particularly adept at missing bats, but he’s been able to avoid hard hits this year to generate good results.

It would appear that Atlanta’s motivation here is to add veteran depth at the back of their rotation, which has consisted almost entirely of Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, and rookie sensation Spencer Strider.  Anderson has struggled to the tune of a 4.99 ERA, while Strider has reached 80 1/3 innings on the season after pitching a career-high 94 last year.  Odorizzi’s last outing served as an excellent trade showcase for Houston – seven scoreless innings against the Mariners.  Odorizzi had injured his leg in May, knocking him out for seven weeks, and dealt with a blister before the start against Seattle.

Odorizzi’s contract is a factor here.  He’s earning $5MM this year (about $1.79MM remains) but would gain $500K upon reaching 100 innings plus $1MM each at 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 innings.  Odorizzi currently sits at 60 innings, so 120 would seem to be the likely ceiling.  Odorizzi also has a player option worth $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle explains, “Odorizzi’s player option can max out at a $12.5 million base salary and a $6.25 million buyout — but only if he pitches in 30 games in which he records 12 or more outs in 2021-22.  After Sunday, Odorizzi has 29 such games across 2021-22.”  Given that the pitcher appears to have at least $3MM at stake in making one more four-inning start, it was mutually beneficial for the Astros to find a team that was more comfortable letting him reach that threshold and achieving a few performance bonuses.

Smith, 33, was the top reliever in the 2019-20 free agent class.  The Braves signed him to a hefty three-year, $40MM contract, also surrendering their second-round draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool money.  Smith’s effectiveness waned in Atlanta, as he was often done in by the longball and increasingly worse control.  He served as the Braves’ closer in the 2021 regular season to acceptable results, but then became a major factor in their postseason run with 11 scoreless innings and six saves.  Smith will forever be immortalized as the pitcher on the mound when the Braves won it all last year.

In March, the Braves signed Kenley Jansen, pushing Smith into a setup role.  Smith was at times the Braves’ third-highest leverage reliever this season, but in July he ranked seventh in that regard and was used in more of a mop-up role.  According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, Smith would have likely been the odd man out for Atlanta once veteran reliever Kirby Yates is activated.  Smith is earning $13MM this year (about $4.6MM remains), plus he’ll be owed a $1MM buyout for 2023.

Smith joins a Houston bullpen led by Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton.  None of those pitchers throw left-handed, and southpaw Blake Taylor hit the IL in June with elbow inflammation.  Smith has never been reliant on velocity, so it’s possible a fresh set of eyes on his mechanics and pitch mix, especially given the Astros’ strong reputation in that department, can right the ship.

If Odorizzi winds up with 110-119 innings, the Braves will end up paying him around $3.3MM in total.  In trading Smith, Atlanta shed a financial commitment of about $5.6MM, so they’d “gain” $2.3MM in the swap assuming they’re not including cash in the deal.  It’s possible, too, that Odorizzi falls short of 110 innings.  Money aside, this trade represents each team dealing from a surplus to better fill its needs.

It’s been a busy evening for Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, who also traded for Tigers outfielder Robbie Grossman.  Similarly, Astros GM James Click has been active today on the eve of the trade deadline, also adding catcher Christian Vazquez from Boston and first baseman Trey Mancini from the Orioles.

Rays’ Brett Phillips Drawing Interest From Multiple Clubs

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The Rays designated outfielder Brett Phillips for assignment yesterday upon acquiring outfielder Jose Siri from the Astros, and while a team normally has a week to trade a player following a DFA, that’s not the case with today’s 6pm ET deadline looming. Phillips seems likely to change hands today, as he’s already drawing interest from multiple clubs. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets that the Red Sox have reached out to the Rays, while Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets that the Phillies have also shown interest as they look to add some defense in center. Brendan Kuty of NJ.com adds the Yankees as another interested club.

It’s been a dismal season at the plate for Phillips, who’s hitting just .147/.225/.250 through 208 plate appearances and has fanned at a whopping 40.9% rate. He’s never been one to provide much with the bat, but this year’s struggles still represent a pronounced departure from last year’s .206/.300/.427 output and the career .201/.291/.381 Phillips carried into the season.

For all of Phillips’ struggles with the bat, he’s long been one of the game’s premier defenders. He’s not only capable of playing all three outfield spots but is a plus defender across the board, evidenced by career marks of 38 Defensive Runs Saved, 31 Outs Above Average and a 25.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 2100 innings of outfield work in his career. The left-handed-hitting Phillips also has displayed plenty of pop and been an excellent base stealer prior to the season. In 675 prior plate appearances, he’d popped 23 homers and gone 29-for-34 in stolen base attempts.

Phillips is earning $1.4MM this season and is controllable for another two years via arbitration, although this year’s struggles at the plate make him an obvious non-tender candidate. Still, as a backup outfielder with power, speed and an elite glove, he could offer plenty of value to a contender off the bench in the season’s final couple months. He’s out of minor league options, so he’ll need to stick on the roster of whatever club potentially acquires him.

Speculatively, there are plenty of other potential fits even beyond the three teams reported to have inquired. The Marlins and Astros are both known to be looking for potential center field upgrades, and Phillips is of course a former Astros farmhand. The Twins’ outfield is banged up beyond recognition at the moment, and Phillips would give them a low-cost stopgap with elite defense to help shore things up. The Blue Jays could see Phillips as a more appealing version of the same skill set that current fourth outfielder Bradley Zimmer offers.

Lack of offensive value notwithstanding, the defense, speed and past power production could very well land Phillips with another team at some point today.

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