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Archives for April 2022

Reds, Sandy Leon Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Reds and free-agent catcher Sandy Leon have agreed to a minor league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Leon, 33, will give Cincinnati some extra catching depth after they traded Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers this offseason. The emergence of young Tyler Stephenson played a large role in prompting that trade, and Stephenson is locked in as the primary backstop for manager David Bell, but Leon could eventually get a look in the big leagues should Stephenson incur an injury or should current backup Aramis Garcia struggle or get hurt.

Leon spent the 2021 season with the Marlins, where he slashed .183/.237/.267 in 220 plate appearances. Outside of what now looks like an anomalous 2016 campaign that saw him slash .310/.369/.476 in 283 trips to the plate, Leon has never provided much value with the bat. He’s regarded as a strong defensive backstop, however, evidenced by plus framing rates, a career 33% caught-stealing rate and a total of 36 Defensive Runs Saved in 3621 career innings behind the plate.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals brought in some new faces and some old friends, as they look for a 15th straight winning season and fourth consecutive playoff berth.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $22.2MM
Total spending: $60.7MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Before the offseason even began, a lot had already happened in the world of the Cardinals. Yadier Molina signed a one-year extension in August and then quickly declared that 2022 would be his final season. In September, Nolan Arenado went public with the fact that he would not be opting out of his contract. In October, just a couple of days before the team was about to face the Dodgers in the Wild Card game, they reached a one-year extension with Adam Wainwright, thus keeping in place one of the most consistent batteries in the history of the game. If Wainwright and Molina can start 20 games together this year, they will pass the Tigers battery of Mickey Lolich and Bill Freehan for most in baseball history. (Wainwright, it should be noted, has not announced whether the 2022 campaign will be his last.)

Despite all that continuity, there was one major shakeup, with manager Mike Shildt being fired about a week after the Cards lost to the Dodgers in the Wild Card game. This was quite surprising at the time, as there hadn’t been any indication a change of this nature had been imminent. The Cardinals made the postseason in all three of his full seasons at the helm, and on the heels of last September’s 17-game winning streak, there’d even been talk of a potential extension for Shildt after the season. Within less than two weeks of the firing, the club had replaced him from within, promoting bench coach Oliver Marmol to the job.

As the calendar flipped to November and the World Series ended, awards season began, with the Cardinals becoming the first ever team to win five Gold Gloves, highlighting the tremendous defense that helped them be so successful. This defense would go on to be a central part of their offseason moves. It was even reported recently that the club considered moving in the fences of Busch Stadium to make it more hitter-friendly, but ultimately decided against it as that would negate their defensive advantage. With the position player core almost entirely intact for 2022, their offseason would largely be focused on pitching, as well as the new designated hitter slot.

Less than 24 hours into free agency, the club pounced and re-signed lefty T.J. McFarland. He had a nice season in 2021, throwing 38 2/3 innings with a 2.56 ERA. Though he didn’t strike out many hitters (14.6%), his 63.7% ground-ball rate made him an excellent fit in front of that elite Cardinal infield.

On the starting pitching side, the Cardinals reportedly had interest in players such as Andrew Heaney, Alex Cobb and Nick Martinez, but ultimately agreed to a deal with Steven Matz. His four-year, $44MM guarantee beat MLBTR’s three-year, $27MM projection in both years and average annual value. Matz doesn’t have McFarland’s elite ground-ball numbers, but he’s a bit better than most in that regard. He has a career grounder rate of 47%, and his 45.5% mark in 2021 checked in a couple points ahead of last year’s league-wide average of 42.7%. Matz doesn’t have huge strikeout totals, but he owns a career walk rate of 7.1% and was down to 6.6% in 2021. With that golden defense behind him, it’s possible he could improve upon 2021’s 3.82 ERA, as solid as that was.

The Cards further bolstered their pitching staff after the lockout by signing Drew VerHagen, the first MLB signing after the transactions freeze lifted. He had spent the previous two seasons pitching in Japan and used his sinker to record a 53.9% ground-ball rate in that time, continuing with the offseason’s broader acquisition pattern. Nick Wittgren was then added to the bullpen mix. He isn’t specifically a ground-ball machine, but does have good control. He’s only had a walk rate higher than 7.1% in one of his big league seasons thus far. Aaron Brooks, selected to the roster in late March, fits this profile as well. He spent the past two seasons pitching in Korea, with a mediocre strikeout rate but a minuscule 4.4% walk rate and incredibly posting a ground-ball rate above 75% in both years.

During the lockout, it was reported that the Cardinals had some interest in Colin Moran. Given the likelihood of the universal designated hitter being implemented in the new CBA, Moran made some sense as a left-handed bench/DH option. However, after the lockout ended, Moran signed with the Reds and the Cards landed Corey Dickerson for the job instead. The outfielder had slumped in the shortened 2020 campaign and didn’t have a great start to 2021 with the Marlins, but Dickerson finished well after a midseason trade to the Blue Jays.

The Cards had one final move up their sleeves, a move that might have been small in terms of cost but huge in terms of emotion. Franchise icon Albert Pujols, who spent the best years of his Hall-of-Fame career in St. Louis, headed back to Missouri after a decade in California. Shortly after signing, like Molina, he announced that this would be his last season.

Although Pujols’ productivity slipped during his time with the Angels, the Dodgers picked him up last year and showed he could still be a useful part of a team in a limited role. They tried to mostly send him up to the plate to face left-handed pitching, allowing him to hit .254/.299/.460 as a Dodger, around league average production. His overall work against lefties, a .294/.336/.603 output, further proves that he can still produce in the right role. Pujols will likely serve a similar bench/platoon/DH role with the Cards, but the image of him reuniting with Molina and Wainwright will resonate among Cardinals fans beyond his on-the-field contributions.

In the end, there’s a lot of continuity for the Cardinals. They’ve lost some now-retired veterans like Jon Lester and Andrew Miller, but added in a few fresh arms in Matz, VerHagen, Wittgren and Brooks. Although they’re not marquee names, they have a chance to succeed based on the marriage of their particular skills with what the Cardinals already have in house. With the Pirates deep in a rebuild, the Reds cutting costs and the Cubs retooling, St. Louis seems well-positioned for another strong season in the NL Central. In the past 21 years, they’ve only posted a losing record once (78-84 in 2007), have made the playoffs 15 times and won the World Series twice. Wainwright, Molina and Pujols have been huge contributors in that stretch, and this year will provide at least two members of that trio a chance to put the finishing touches on their legacies and an incredible run of success for the franchise.

Twins Select Kyle Garlick, Designate Dereck Rodriguez For Assignment

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The Twins announced Friday morning that they’ve selected the contract of outfielder Kyle Garlick from Triple-A St. Paul and designated right-hander Dereck Rodriguez for assignment in a corresponding move.

Garlick, 30, opened the 2021 season as a fourth outfielder with the Twins and posted a .232/.280/.466 batting line in 107 trips to the plate. Primarily deployed against southpaws, he turned in a much more robust .271/.302/.576 batting line in 59 trips to the plate in such situations. Garlick landed on the 10-day injured list a couple of times — the first for a positive Covid test and the second for a sports hernia that eventually required surgery and ended his season. Minnesota passed him through waivers after the season, but Garlick will now return and presumably occupy a similar part-time role, perhaps splitting time with Trevor Larnach in left field while Alex Kirilloff is on the shelf with continued wrist troubles.

It proved to be a short stay with the big league club for Rodriguez, the son of Hall of Fame catcher and a former Twins prospect who made his way back to the organization by way of a minor league deal this offseason. Rodriguez tossed four innings of long relief against the Dodgers earlier this week, tossing three scoreless frames before being tagged for back-to-back-to-back home runs off the bats of Cody Bellinger, Gavin Lux and Austin Barnes. He finished that lone appearance as a Twin with three runs through four innings pitched.

Now 29 years old, Rodriguez was a sixth-round pick by Minnesota back in 2011 but didn’t make his MLB debut until 2018, after he’d signed with the Giants as a minor league free agent. He turned in a stellar rookie campaign, logging 118 1/3 innings of 2.81 ERA ball, but Rodriguez has just a 5.97 ERA in 107 big league innings since that time.

Rodriguez averaged 92 mph on his heater in that one-off appearance this year. He’s generally posted below-average strikeout and ground-ball rates but been better than average when it comes to limiting free passes. He’s also optionable for the remainder of the 2022 season, which could enhance his appeal to another club in need of some upper-level pitching depth. The Twins will have a week to trade Rodriguez, pass him through outright waivers or release him.

Pirates, Bryan Reynolds Agree To Two-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration

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The Pirates and center fielder Bryan Reynolds have agreed to a two-year contract to avoid arbitration, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The deal covers the 2022-23 campaigns and doesn’t affect the team’s window of contractual control. Reynolds is a CAA Sports client.

It’s a $13.5MM guarantee, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter). He’ll receive matching $6.75MM salaries in each of the next two seasons, adds Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic.

Mackey wrote last week the Pirates were hoping to get a two-year deal done with Reynolds. As he noted, the Bucs are a “file-and-trial” team, meaning they decline to discuss one-year agreements with players once the deadline to exchange arbitration figures passes. That’s a fairly common practice around the league, albeit one teams set themselves.

By establishing the precedent they won’t continue negotiations after filing day, the reasoning goes, teams can deter players from filing at a high number in hopes of anchoring further discussions from an elevated starting point. If team and player go to a hearing, the arbitrator chooses one of the side’s desired figures rather than picking a midpoint. That incentivizes both to file for a salary reasonably in line with established precedent, since an outlier in either direction is less likely to be judged fair in the hearing.

On the other hand, going to a hearing with a star player like Reynolds isn’t ideal. The 27-year-old maintained in the past he wouldn’t be miffed by the process, but also acknowledged that the inherently adversarial arbitration process can sometimes get “messy” (link via Mackey). Signing a two-year deal after filing day allows the Pirates to maintain they’ve not violated their “file-and-trial” policy while avoiding the possibility of irritating one of their best players.

From Reynolds’ perspective, he locks in guaranteed earnings over the next couple years without delaying his path to free agency. He’ll also make more money this season than he would’ve even had he won a hearing. Reynolds’ camp had filed for a $4.9MM salary; the team had countered at $4.25MM. Pittsburgh will go above Reynolds’ desired mark this year to foreclose the possibility he receives a notable raise in 2023 with another big season.

Both sides are surely glad to avoid hearings for the next two years, but Reynolds’ long-term status with the organization isn’t much affected by today’s news. This was his first of four seasons of arb-eligibility as a Super Two qualifier. Barring another agreement at some point down the line, he’ll head through the arbitration process again in the 2023-24 and 2024-25 offseasons.

Reynolds is controllable through 2025, his age-30 campaign. He reportedly rejected an extension offer from the Bucs prior to the 2021 season and said in Spring Training the organization hadn’t seriously approached him about a long-term deal this year. Biertempfel tweets the two sides have discussed various potential contract structures in the past. It stands to reason they’ll eventually make a renewed effort at a longer-term pact.

Eovaldi Won’t Discuss Extension During Season

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In an about-face from an earlier report, it appears one of the Red Sox’ best starters is destined to reach free agency at season’s end after all. Right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi was previously thought to be open to mid-season extension talks, but WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports that Eovaldi has no desire to discuss contract matters during the season. Bradford adds that there is an expectation the righty’s camp will be in contact with the team after the 2022 campaign concludes.

It’s commonplace for players in walk years to halt extension talks after Opening Day— look no further than the division rival Yankees for recent evidence of that— though it registers as a mild surprise that Eovaldi’s self-imposed deadline has come and gone without much talking at all. Eovaldi is coming off the finest season of his career: a 182-inning showing of 3.75 ERA ball with elite command (4.6% walk rate), Cy Young votes, and a bevy of underlying metrics that indicate his performance was even better than his ERA lets on. With just one season to go before a healthy payday awaits the righty in free agency, however, it’s possible Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom and the front office didn’t see the cost upside in writing up a new contract now.

Alternatively, the Red Sox front office may have simply been too preoccupied post-lockout trying to assemble a team with playoff aspirations. Though the club did kick the tires on extensions with franchise players Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, neither discussion got very far. The front office engaged sophomore pitcher Garrett Whitlock in extension talks, agreeing to an extension this past Sunday, though that’s a value play that was unlikely to be afforded in the veteran Eovaldi’s case. Due to either consistent high-end performance or financial upside it’s easy to see why extension talks were prioritized in all three of these cases over the one with a 32-year-old pitcher.

With Eovaldi all but certain to reach free agency, he’ll join a group teeming with upside (and for the Red Sox, potential replacements). Assuming some opt-outs are exercised and some player options are not, the 2022-23 free agent market stands to contain elite names like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw. With more than $100MM worth of commitments likely headed off the books after the season, the Red Sox should have no shortage of options to explore this offseason, be it by re-upping some familiar faces or by inviting some new ones into the fold.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Nutting, Crowe, Contreras

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Shortly after signing third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year $70MM extension, Pirates owner Bob Nutting spoke to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about the team’s plans moving forward. After applauding the work done by third-year GM Ben Cherington to rebuild the team’s talent pipeline, Nutting stated his belief “that we’ve rebuilt that foundation to the point that now we can really focus on the major league club.” That’s surely welcome news for Pittsburgh fans, who have sat through an arduous rebuilding process that’s included three consecutive fifth place finishes and a bottom-three payroll entering the 2022 season (per Cot’s Contracts).

Of further note, Nutting spoke of the need to look internally and pick “a few key building blocks […] to start building here in Pittsburgh.” It’s already known that the team tried to extend All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds prior to the 2021 season, and have since settled on an arbitration-avoiding pact with the 27-year-old earlier today. Still, with Hayes locked up through his prime years and extensions on the front office’s mind they’ll be hard-pressed to find a better building block than Reynolds. Whether further extension talks take place with Reynolds or other “building blocks”— Mackey suggests breakout reliever David Bednar as one option— remains to be seen, it’s clear the franchise is ready to pivot and secure a division title for the first time since 1992.

Some other news of note from the NL’s central division…

  • We’re only a few games into the new season but the Pirates feel they may have another breakout reliever on their hands, reports Kevin Gorman of Tribune-ReviewSports. After picking up a three-inning save yesterday, the first of his career, converted-starter Wil Crowe extended his streak to seven scoreless innings to open the season. Small sample size caveats are abound here, but it’s clear that the headlining return from 2020’s Josh Bell trade has seen his stuff play up out of the bullpen. After posting a 5.48 ERA across 26 games (25 starts) with below average strikeout numbers last year, Crowe has upped his swinging strike rate and ranks among the early leaders in avoiding hard contact this season.
  • The Cubs and catcher Willson Contreras remain far apart in arbitration talks and it doesn’t appear an agreement will be reached without an arbiter, per NBC Sports’ Gordon Wittenmyer. While a few months remain for both sides to settle on a midpoint between their exchanged figures— Contreras filed at $10.25MM while the Cubs put forth a $9MM offer— a tidy resolution never seemed likely between the club and one of the last members of their 2016 World Series-winning core. The Cubs are a file-and-trial club and take a hard stance on discussing arbitration salaries after the figure-exchanging deadline (this year’s deadline was March 22). When asked if the club would make an exception for Contreras, given his reputation on the team and as one of the league’s better hitting catchers, team president Jed Hoyer replied “That’s not our policy. We went past the deadline.” For his part, Contreras doesn’t seem too bothered by the prospect of an arbitration hearing, noting that he’s “been going through a lot of [criticism] since I was in the minor leagues, and everything they have to say I’ve already heard it”. The 29-year-old Contreras is set to headline a decent free agent catcher market after the season, and while he hasn’t closed the window on lengthening his Cubs tenure he did note his chances of remaining with the team may take a hit once the Cubs allow him to test the market. The two-time All-Star also drew trade interest over the offseason, which may eventually expedite the catcher’s exit from his original organization.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds forecasted a payroll reduction early in the offseason, and a few of the team’s more notable players wound up departing. Cincinnati held off on a full teardown and even added incrementally during Spring Training, but that may not be enough to return to last season’s 83-win level.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $14.825MM
Total spending: $14.825MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Reds were involved in the first notable transaction of the offseason, dealing longtime catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers the afternoon after the World Series ended. That was a fitting precursor for the months to come, as “which other veterans will the Reds move?” became one of the offseason’s defining storylines.

In fairness to the Cincinnati front office, the Barnhart trade was a perfectly defensible one. Twenty-five-year-old Tyler Stephenson was ready for an everyday look behind the dish, and he brings quite a bit more offensive upside to the table than does Barnhart. Reallocating the $7.75MM it’d have cost to keep Barnhart in the fold made sense, and the deal gave the respected veteran a chance to continue playing regularly in Detroit.

Far more concerning than the Barnhart deal itself was the now-famous line general manager Nick Krall dropped in explaining the trade about aligning the team’s payroll to its resources. That hinted at more departures, the next of which came in fairly short order. Cincinnati waived starter Wade Miley on the heels of a 3.37 ERA season, saving themselves the $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option they were evidently set to decline. Even worse for Reds fans, he was claimed by the division-rival Cubs.

With the team in clear cost-cutting mode, attention turned again to the Reds top trio of high-end starting pitchers: Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray. It was the second consecutive offseason in which Gray and Castillo, in particular, were involved in trade discussions. Early reports indicated that Gray — the oldest and most expensive — was the likeliest to find himself on the move. No deal transpired before the lockout, but the right-hander was shipped off to the Twins for hard-throwing pitching prospect Chase Petty shortly after transactions resumed.

Petty was selected 26th overall by Minnesota in last summer’s draft. His fastball-slider combination draws plenty of praise, but he’s not without concern about his control and the inherent risk associated with any teenage pitcher. Petty is a legitimate prospect to add to the system, but there’s little doubt Cincinnati had a strong financial motivation for the Gray trade as well.

Shortly after Gray was dealt, Krall went on the record to quash any speculation about the possibility Castillo or Mahle could follow him out of town. Both pitchers have two remaining seasons of club control via arbitration. If the Reds get off to a rough start, they could each be in-demand midseason trade targets (as José Berríos was last summer). For now, though, they’re remaining at the front of the rotation. Castillo began the year on the injured list but could be back by the end of the month.

The Reds kept their top two arms, but they pulled the trigger on a deal that subtracted one of their best bats in another payroll-saving maneuver. Cincinnati sent Jesse Winker to Seattle after the Mariners agreed to take back Eugenio Suárez while assuming the remaining three years and $35MM on the latter’s contract. Suárez’s March 2018 extension had gone south over the past two seasons; relinquishing Winker marked a notable price to pay to get out from under the back end of the deal.

As with the Gray swap, the Winker trade wasn’t a strict salary dump. Cincinnati brought back Brandon Williamson, another hard-throwing pitching prospect. Unlike Petty, Williamson isn’t too far from major league readiness, and he’s landed on the back end of a couple top-100 prospect rankings (No. 83 at Baseball America, No. 100 at MLB.com). The Reds also acquired a second pitching prospect, Connor Phillips, as well as an immediate outfield option in Jake Fraley and a depth arm in the currently-injured Justin Dunn.

Gray, Barnhart, Winker and Miley wound up being the four most notable contributors the Reds affirmatively moved as part of their payroll “alignment.” One could argue that the most impactful departure of all, though, was that of free agent outfielder Nick Castellanos, who inked a nine-figure deal with the Phillies. The Reds were never a threat to re-sign Castellanos, although they did pick up a draft choice as compensation after he rejected a qualifying offer. Winker and Castellanos had made one of the most effective corner outfield pairings last season, at least offensively, leaving fairly significant gaps to plug in the lineup.

Clearly, the Reds’ budgetary limitations were going to keep them from splurging on a replacement for either of those departing sluggers. Krall and his staff instead made a shrewd, low-cost pickup of Tommy Pham late in the spring. The 34-year-old Pham is coming off the worst two seasons of his career, but he’s continued to draw plenty of walks while making his fair share of hard contact. He’ll be hard-pressed to match the production of Winker or Castellanos, but $7.5MM is a reasonable price for a hopeful bounceback from the typically steady veteran in a more hitter-friendly home environment.

Pham and Fraley step into an outfield mix that also includes holdovers Aristides Aquino, Tyler Naquin and Nick Senzel. That’s not a great defensive grouping, but most of those players have capable track records at the plate. It’s certainly not as high-powered an outfield as Cincinnati ran out last year, but it shouldn’t be a disaster. There was enough depth in the group the club decided to release Shogo Akiyama shortly before Opening Day. Akiyama’s three-year deal over the 2019-20 offseason proved ill-fated as he offered very little offensively during his time in Cincinnati.

The infield is more exciting, with franchise icon Joey Votto looking resurgent and second baseman Jonathan India fresh off a Rookie of the Year campaign. Highly-touted prospect José Barrero figures to eventually take over as the regular shortstop, but he’s dealing with a hamate injury that’ll keep him out into May. Utilityman Kyle Farmer demonstrated he’s capable of holding the position over in Barrero’s absence last season; he’ll do so again for this year’s first month and a half, then perhaps shift over to a third base position that has disappointed in recent years.

That’s mostly because Suárez’s production fell in 2020, but he’s not the only big-name infielder to stumble unexpectedly. Mike Moustakas, whom the club signed to a four-year deal a couple offseasons back, is coming off a miserable season in which he missed significant time due to repeated foot injuries. His underwhelming showing looks particularly problematic in the context of the organization’s curtailed spending. Moustakas is the nominal starter at third base, but it stands to reason both Farmer and offseason signee Donovan Solano could cut into his playing time once everyone’s healthy.

Solano might also help shoulder the load at the newly-implemented NL designated hitter position. He’s posted above-average offensive numbers in all three seasons since reinvigorating his career with the Giants in 2019. Solano isn’t an impact hitter, but he’s solid enough at the dish to be a capable bat-first utility option for skipper David Bell once he returns from a season-opening IL stint.

He and Brandon Drury, who made the roster as a minor league signee, offer some infield depth. The Reds also took a low-cost flier on former Pirate Colin Moran to add another bat to the corner infield/DH group. As a left-handed hitter, Moran could be a candidate to split time at the hot corner with the righty-swinging Solano and Drury if he can play his way above Moustakas on the depth chart. Cincinnati rounded out the position player mix by selecting non-roster invitee Aramis García to back up Stephenson behind the dish.

There’s a bit of a mishmash feel to the Reds lineup, but it’s certainly not without talent. Votto, India, Stephenson, Naquin and Pham should make for a capable offensive core. Barrero and Senzel have a chance to play their way into that mix, and Cincinnati has at least brought in some competent if unexciting veterans to fill the roster.

Of greater concern may be the depth on the pitching staff. Castillo and Mahle make for a strong top two, but the losses of Gray and Miley removed last season’s No. 3 and No. 4 options. To replace some of that veteran stability, the Reds sent reliever Amir Garrett to Kansas City for starter Mike Minor. The southpaw is starting the season on the injured list himself, but he began a rehab assignment this week.

The Minor deal was a real surprise, something of an outlier in the Reds’ broader offseason. He’s coming off two consecutive seasons with an ERA north of 5.00. Minor’s career track record and recent peripherals both paint him more favorably, making him a sensible enough bounceback candidate in a vacuum. Yet the deal involved Cincinnati taking on around $7.3MM in salary (after subtracting Garrett’s arbitration tally and a small cash payment by Kansas City).

Would the Reds have been better served to hang onto Miley and non-tender Garrett, which would’ve been roughly financially equivalent? It’d seem so, but Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson has to be confident he can coax better results from Minor — with whom he’s no doubt familiar from their time at Vanderbilt more than a decade ago.

Johnson is also tasked with guiding two of the top pitching prospects in the game as they make their MLB debuts this season. Fireballing Hunter Greene broke camp with the big league club and picked up his first start over the weekend. The righty averaged an absurd 99.7 MPH on his fastball, showcasing the kind of power stuff that made him a No. 2 overall pick and gives him front-of-the-rotation upside. Left-hander Nick Lodolo doesn’t have that kind of arm strength, but his impressive slider and very advanced command could make him a mid-rotation arm fairly soon. It’s expected Lodolo will be in the regular rotation as well, although after a clean first frame, he was hit hard in his MLB debut yesterday (five runs in four innings).

There’s something of a trial-by-fire element in relying on both Greene and Lodolo every fifth day in a season where the Reds still hope to contend. They’re both very highly touted arms, but there’s risk inherent in projecting any prospect to assume a key role on a win-now big league roster. Reiver Sanmartín and Vladimir Gutierrez are around as insurance, but neither has much big league success on his resume either. Whether Greene and Lodolo immediately excel could be a turning point for the Reds. If they hit the ground running, there’s a decent enough core in both the lineup and the rotation that it’s not out of the question they hang around the playoff picture. If either experience some early growing pains, the lack of pitching depth could catch up to the team pretty quickly.

That’s particularly true in light of the club’s lack of offseason moves to address the bullpen. Cincinnati relievers posted the league’s fourth-worst ERA (4.99) in 2021, one of the biggest reasons the Reds couldn’t hold onto a postseason spot. That was despite 33 2/3 fantastic innings from Tejay Antone, who probably won’t pitch at all this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. The Reds entered the offseason seemingly in desperate need of some help late in games, but they did virtually nothing to address the issue.

The only external pickup was a one-year deal for journeyman righty Hunter Strickland. He’s coming off a 2.61 ERA season, but his underlying numbers were closer to average. Strickland is a fine middle reliever, but he’s miscast as a high-leverage option. That puts particular pressure on holdovers like Tony Santillan and Art Warren to build off promising 2021 showings. Whenever Lucas Sims returns from the IL, he figures to assume another key late-game role as well.

Much as is the case with the lineup and the rotation, one can envision a scenario where things break right with the bullpen. Relief units tend to be the most volatile aspect of a team — few would’ve anticipated the Mariners riding an elite bullpen to 90 wins at the start of last season, for instance — and the Reds have a few promising arms they can deploy. Yet as with the rest of the roster, the depth behind the top few options is lacking, making it particularly paramount the most talented players stay healthy and perform up to expectations.

The Reds find themselves in a weird spot. They spent the second half of the last decade rebuilding, gearing up for a full-fledged push for contention in 2020. The organization obviously couldn’t have foreseen the shortened season and pandemic-associated revenue losses to come, and ownership has declined to push payroll forward in the wake of that difficult year.

That has left the front office trying to strike a delicate balance between contending and managing finances. There’s too much win-now talent for the club to commit to another full rebuild, but there are enough gaps on the margins of the roster it’s hard to project them as a 2022 playoff team. They’re left to hope that some late-offseason depth adds, early prospect promotions and a newly-expanded postseason field will be enough to hang around. It’s not impossible, but the Reds have less margin for error than many of their competitors. There’s a real danger of the franchise spinning their wheels around .500, which would only raise more questions about how to proceed with Castillo and Mahle as the summer trade deadline approaches.

Padres Promote MacKenzie Gore, Place Blake Snell On 10-Day IL

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5:45PM: The Padres have officially announced the moves, putting Snell on the 10-day IL (retroactive to April 11) with a left adductor strain.

3:49PM: Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including AJ Cassavell and Kevin Acee) that Snell has been placed on the 10-day IL, and Gore will indeed start Friday’s game.

12:33PM: The Padres are facing some early-season uncertainty in the starting rotation. Left-hander Blake Snell was scratched from what was supposed to be his first start on Sunday after experiencing adductor tightness. Snell hasn’t been placed on the injured list, but it’s expected he’ll need some time on the shelf to recover.

With Snell’s spot in the rotation up again tomorrow night against the Braves, it looks as if MacKenzie Gore will get his first big league look. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweeted Tuesday that Gore had joined the team’s taxi squad, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last night the organization expects to soon place Snell on the IL and start Gore in his place.

Gore’s prospect stock has fluctuated considerably in recent seasons. The third overall pick in 2017, he carved up low minors hitters over his first two professional campaigns. In the process, Gore emerged as a potentially elite young talent. Heading into the 2020 season, each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and The Athletic slotted Gore as the sport’s top pitching prospect. All three outlets ranked him among the top six minor league talents overall.

Having reached Double-A late in 2019, Gore looked as if he could make his MLB debut at some point that season. The pandemic wound up necessitating a shorter schedule and a lack of minor league play, however, and Gore spent the year at the alternate training site. Reports emerged that he’d gotten out of whack mechanically, with Baseball America writing over the 2020-21 offseason there were concerns about both his control and a velocity dip.

Those red flags persisted last year, as Gore walked an alarming 12.5% of opponents against a dramatically reduced 18.8% strikeout rate in six Triple-A starts. The Padres reassigned him to their Arizona complex for some lower-pressure work to get back on track, and he returned to an affiliate late in the season with a pair of Double-A starts. He walked another eight batters in nine innings but also punched out 16.

There’s no question Gore’s inconsistent past couple seasons have dealt some kind of hit to his prospect stock. He’s no longer a consensus top ten minor leaguer, nor has he reached the majors as quickly as it had once seemed he would. Yet Gore only turned 23 years old in February and is only two years removed from being perhaps the best pitcher in the minors. He’s certainly still a legitimate prospect, one whom Keith Law of the Athletic slotted #59 overall this offseason.

Law wrote that each of Gore’s fastball, changeup and slider are still plus pitches and that he’s athletic enough to yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm if he finds more mechanical consistency. BA slotted the southpaw fourth in the San Diego system this winter, praising his high-octane repertoire and noting that his “misses off the plate were much smaller” late last year than they’d been early in that season. Gore has only made one appearance so far this year, but he didn’t issue a single free pass in five scoreless innings with Triple-A El Paso last week, fanning seven of the 16 batters he faced.

Gore is already on the 40-man roster, so a Snell IL placement would be sufficient to accommodate his call-up. How long he’d remain in the rotation is to be seen, but Acee writes that both Snell and right-hander Mike Clevinger are expected to require two minor league rehab starts before returning to the majors. The team announced last night that Clevinger, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery and opened this year on the IL due to some soreness in his right knee, will make his first rehab start today with High-A Lake Elsinore.

Nationals To Promote Donovan Casey

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The Nationals are calling outfielder Donovan Casey up from Triple-A, according to Chuckie Maggio of the Pickin Splinters website.  No corresponding move has been announced, though Dee Strange-Gordon was scratched from the initial starting lineup the Nats posted earlier today for their game against the Pirates.

Casey was already placed on Washington’s 40-man roster back in November, and the 26-year-old’s fifth pro season will now include his debut as a Major League ballplayer.  Selected by the Dodgers in the 20th round of the 2017 draft, Casey was acquired as part of the four-player package the Nats received for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the last trade deadline.

Casey is a Boston College product who has hit .278/.337/.464 with 54 home runs and 52 steals (from 63 chances) over 1563 career plate appearances in the minors.  That line doesn’t include much Triple-A success, however, as Casey has a modest .190/.250/.342 slash over 172 PA at the Triple-A level.  It could be that the Nationals’ hand was somewhat forced by a potential injury situation on the big league roster, yet Casey at least had a .905 OPS over his first 25 PA of the 2022 season.

Baseball America (17th) and MLB Pipeline (19th) each have Casey listed within the Nationals’ top-20 prospect rankings, and BA also gave Casey extra mention as the “Best Athlete” in Washington’s farm system.  His speed and athletic ability has translated into some excellent defense in the outfield, and Casey’s strong throwing arm makes him a good right field candidate.  Both BA/Pipeline scouting reports have some questions about his bat, particularly Casey’s high propensity for strikeouts.

While the situation could change based on roster moves involving Strange-Gordon or other players, Casey would seem to fit as a glove-first backup outfield type.  Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Lane Thomas make up the D.C. starting outfield, while Strange-Gordon and Yadiel Hernandez were working in a backup capacity.

Rangers Activate Garrett Richards; Place Spencer Howard, Dennis Santana On Injured List

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The Rangers announced four roster moves involving right-handed pitchers today, including the activation of Garrett Richards from the 10-day injured list.  Nick Snyder was also called up from Triple-A.  In corresponding moves, Dennis Santana was placed on the COVID-related injured list, while Spencer Howard was placed on the regular 10-day IL due to a blister and cracked fingernail.

Richards signed a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $5.5MM following the lockout, but his Texas debut was postponed by a blister issue of his own.  Fortunately, it ended up being only a minor setback, and Richards is now lined up to take his spot in the Rangers bullpen.  Reporter Jeff Wilson (Twitter links) that the Rangers are tentatively planning a bullpen game for Friday’s contest with the Angels, so Richards could conceivably get the pseudo-start if he doesn’t see any action tonight.

Howard has been initially stated to start Friday’s game, but he will now head to the IL (retroactive to April 11) to recover from his own finger issue.  The 25-year-old didn’t fare well in his first start of the season, as Howard was tagged for four homers and six earned runs over three innings in a 12-6 loss to the Blue Jays.  Blisters have been a recurring problem for the Rangers in the early going, between Richards’ absence, and both Howard and Jon Gray now sidelined.  The Rangers have an off-day on April 18, so it’s possible the rotation might not need further re-alignment if Howard and/or Gray are able to return in short order.

Santana is still waiting results of his COVID-19 test, but Wilson reports that the IL placement was precautionary since Santana is showing symptoms.  As per the 2022 rules, Santana will have to miss a minimum of five days and be free of symptoms for the last two or more of those days.

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