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Rangers Designate Greg Holland For Assignment

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The Rangers announced this afternoon they’ve designated reliever Greg Holland for assignment. The move clears an active roster spot for starter Jon Gray, who has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list to start tonight’s ballgame against the Mariners. Texas’ 40-man roster now sits at 39.

Holland broke camp with Texas after signing a minor league deal over the winter. The veteran righty got off to a tough start to the season, however, allowing five runs on six hits (including three homers) with a walk and five strikeouts through 4 2/3 innings. Rangers’ brass elected not to give him much time to try to work through those struggles, instead bumping him off the roster.

The 36-year-old didn’t have a ton of leeway after struggling to a 4.85 ERA in 55 2/3 frames with the Royals last year. Holland had posted a sterling 1.91 mark in 28 games during the shortened 2020 schedule, but he hasn’t managed to build off that success the past couple years. Holland was a three-time All-Star and one of the sport’s best few relievers during his prime in Kansas City, but he posted an ERA of 4.54 or higher in the three other campaigns between 2018-21.

Texas will have a week to trade Holland or place him on waivers. He has more than enough experience to refuse an outright assignment and elect minor league free agency if he passes through waivers unclaimed. That’d seem the likeliest outcome, at which point Holland could explore offers from other teams.

Gray is back after a minimal IL stint due to a blister on his pitching hand. Signed to a four-year deal over the winter, he tossed four innings of three-run ball against the Blue Jays during his team debut.

Braves Designate Sean Newcomb For Assignment, Option Huascar Ynoa

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The Braves have designated left-hander Sean Newcomb for assignment, per a club announcement. They’ve also optioned righty Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett and recalled right-hander Touki Toussaint and lefty Dylan Lee in place of Newcomb and Ynoa. Additionally, the Braves announced that Ronald Acuna Jr. is headed out on a minor league rehab assignment.

Newcomb’s DFA comes on the heels of a three-year downturn that have seen the starter-turned-setup-man’s effectiveness dwindle considerably. The No. 15 overall pick by the Angels back in 2014, Newcomb headlined the Braves’ return in the trade that sent Andrelton Simmons to Anaheim. After a solid rookie showing in 2017, he looked to have broken out in 2018 when he made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.90 ERA over the life of 164 innings. Newcomb’s 23% strikeout rate was solid, but his 11.6% walk rate marked a continuation of ongoing command troubles that had plagued him dating back to his minor league days.

Despite a decent start to the 2019 season, Newcomb was optioned to Gwinnett in mid-April and returned as a reliever in early May. The new role seemed to suit him just fine, as he pitched to a 2.89 ERA with improved strikeout and walk rates (25.5% and 8.9%, respectively) in 56 innings the rest of the way. Averaging just shy of 95 mph on his heater and putting the ball on the ground on more than half of the batted balls against him, Newcomb looked the part of a quality late-inning option.

That hasn’t proven to be the case, however. Dating back to 2020, Newcomb has a 6.71 ERA in 51 big league innings and has spent some time shuttling between Gwinnett and the big leagues. He’s walked more than 15% of his opponents since Opening Day 2020, plunked another five batters and thrown seven wild pitches. Newcomb is out of minor league options, and with him yielding four runs on seven hits and four walks through just five innings (26 batters faced) to begin the season, the Braves made the choice to cut bait.

Newcomb is earning $900K this season after avoiding arbitration this past offseason. He’s still owed about $842K of that sum for the remainder of the season, and any team that claims him or acquires him via trade would be on the hook for the remainder of that sum. If a new team is able to help Newcomb right the ship, however, he’d be controllable through the 2024 season via arbitration. Given that his salary is only $200K north of the new league minimum, it’s certainly possible that another club will look to help get the once-successful southpaw back on track. The Braves will have a week to trade Newcomb, attempt to pass him through waivers or release him. If he’s released, the new signing team would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster.

As for Ynoa, he’ll remain on the 40-man roster and hope to work toward another big league shot after an awful start to the season. The former Twins prospect, acquired in the deal that briefly sent Jaime Garcia to Minnesota, had a short breakout last year when he pitched to a 3.09 ERA over an eight-start stretch that spanned 43 2/3 frames. Ynoa, however, suffered a broken hand when he punched the bench following a poor start and spent two months on the injured list. When he returned, he posted a 5.05 ERA in 46 1/3 frames, and those struggles have not only continued but escalated in 2022. So far this year, he’s made two starts, both shorter than four innings, and yielded five earned runs in each.

The news on Acuna is a welcome sight for Braves fans, as it signifies that — barring any setbacks in his rehab from last year’s ACL tear — he’ll be back with the big league club within a month’s time. Minor league rehab windows are capped at 30 days, so Acuna will be back by mid-May, health-permitting.

Jacob deGrom Slated For Followup MRI Next Week

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Mets ace Jacob deGrom is slated to undergo a followup MRI on his ailing right shoulder next Monday, the team told reporters Tuesday (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). If that round of imaging goes well, it’s possible he’ll be cleared to begin throwing shortly thereafter.

The Mets haven’t received an inning from deGrom so far in 2022, as he’s been shelved after being diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right scapula back on April 1. The original recommendation was for a four-week shutdown. A two-time Cy Young winner, deGrom pitched to a superhuman 1.08 ERA with a 45.1% strikeout rate and 3.4% walk rate in 92 frames last year before being shut down in early July with a forearm issue that eventually proved to be a season-ender.

There’s still no timetable on deGrom’s return and won’t be until that MRI next week is complete, although the Mets have not yet placed him on the 60-day injured list. That leaves open the possibility that he could return before the early-June point that such a move would necessitate.

Even without deGrom and right-hander Taijuan Walker, who’s currently out with a case of bursitis in his right shoulder, the Mets’ rotation hasn’t missed much of a beat so far in 2021. Righty Tylor Megill has gotten out to a magnificent start, hurling 11 shutout innings while brandishing an improved heater that has enjoyed a velocity spike of nearly two miles per hour. Former Cleveland star Carlos Carrasco, who struggled mightily in his first year with the Mets last season, has looked like his old self for his first two trips to the mound. Trade acquisition Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, has allowed just one run through a dozen frames. Max Scherzer has had a pair of sharp outings to begin his Mets career, and lefty David Peterson has yet to allow a run through 8 1/3 frames.

The 33-year-old deGrom is being paid $33.5MM in the penultimate guaranteed season of a five-year, $137.5MM contract. He can opt out of that deal at season’s end — a right he’s said he still plans to exercise even after missing the early portion of the season on the injured list. The right-hander’s current contract would pay him $30.5MM in 2023 and gives the Mets a $32.5MM option on the 2024 season.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox filled their right field vacancy by making a long-awaited Craig Kimbrel trade, otherwise focusing on signing Kimbrel’s replacements rather than compensating for the departure of Carlos Rodon.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

After a disappointing ALDS loss to the Astros, the White Sox kicked off their offseason by exercising their hefty $16MM option on reliever Craig Kimbrel.  The righty had struggled after a crosstown trade in which the Sox paid the high price of Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  The White Sox seemed intent on trading Kimbrel all along, and at the time their choice on the option seemed related to having given up Madrigal for him.  As I wrote in December, “[White Sox GM Rick] Hahn has gambled that whatever he gets back will be better than just paying the $1MM buyout on Kimbrel and spending the money in free agency.”

At the time it needed to be made, the Kimbrel decision involved some financial risk for a club that has never been willing to run a payroll near the first competitive balance tax threshold.  Days later, in what seemed a related choice payroll-wise, the White Sox declined to issue a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to lefty Carlos Rodon.

Especially with the benefit of hindsight that the White Sox would make no major commitments to their rotation, the Rodon decision must be read as the club thinking that the southpaw accepting the qualifying offer would have been a bad thing.  It’s hard to say whether Rodon would have accepted.  He was one of the game’s best pitchers through mid-July last year, but lost velocity and was handled carefully after that due to shoulder issues.  Rodon went on to sign a two-year, $44MM deal after the lockout with the Giants that allows him to opt out after the first year if he reaches 110 innings.  Rodon’s market would have been different if he had a qualifying offer attached, due to draft pick forfeiture.

In granting righty Lance Lynn a two-year, $38MM extension last July – similar to the contract Rodon would eventually sign – it might be that the White Sox felt they could choose only one of their 2021 aces.  That’s only true in that owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided not to set a payroll that would accommodate both.  So, the White Sox received no compensation for Rodon’s departure, while Lynn had knee surgery earlier this month and isn’t expected to make his season debut before his 35th birthday on May 12th.  The second half of the season will determine whether the White Sox made the right bet: Lynn will be a big factor in Chicago’s rotation, and we’ll learn whether Rodon holds up all year.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the White Sox showed “strong interest” in Justin Verlander before he reached an agreement to re-sign with the Astros on November 17th.  That would’ve been a reasonable way to fill Rodon’s shoes, but competition for Verlander was fierce and the Astros were at the top of his list.  Most other top free agent starting pitchers signed prior to the lockout as well, and the White Sox weren’t rumored to be interested in them.

Otherwise, the White Sox made a pair of free agent strikes before the December 2 lockout.  They gave out a pair of decent-sized three-year deals, adding setup man Kendall Graveman and retaining super-utility man Leury Garcia.  The Graveman signing laid groundwork for the eventual Kimbrel trade, ensuring the team would remain strong in the late innings behind top closer Liam Hendriks.  Garcia garnered a larger commitment than expected, but would end up as part of the team’s second base solution.

Rick Hahn’s first post-lockout move was to finish off that second base combo with the signing of Josh Harrison.  Through nine games of the season, manager Tony La Russa has split second base time evenly between Garcia and Harrison.  Harrison is a righty batter with a modest platoon split, with a 113 wRC+ against southpaws from 2020-21.  Garcia, a switch-hitter, is also better against lefties.  From 2019-21, Garcia and Harrison sport identical 83 wRC+ marks against right-handed pitching.  So for the 70% of the time a righty pitcher is on the hill, the White Sox figure to have a fairly easy out coming from the second base position in the lineup.

On the same day as the Harrison signing, the White Sox somewhat surprisingly moved to further bolster their bullpen with the signing of Joe Kelly.  Not only was the team surprising given Chicago’s existing bullpen commitments, but Kelly had exited Game 5 of the NLCS with biceps tightness and still secured a strong commitment.  His White Sox debut has been delayed by at least a couple of weeks due to the injury.  When Kelly is healthy, he, Graveman, and Aaron Bummer can form a very strong bridge to Hendriks.

After the lockout, the White Sox added only back-end starting pitchers to cover for the loss of Rodon and ineffectiveness of Dallas Keuchel, as Lynn had not yet gotten injured.  Vince Velasquez, 29, has longstanding control issues that pitching coach Ethan Katz will attempt to solve.  Johnny Cueto, meanwhile, can be a source of veteran innings.  The White Sox can still plan a hopeful playoff rotation of Lucas Giolito, Lynn, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech.  While their depth to cover April injuries to Lynn and Giolito isn’t impressive, if everyone is healthy this will be a fearsome rotation.

The White Sox made efforts to trade for Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas, and Montas remains available.  According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Sox “nearly acquired” Manaea from the A’s before the Padres closed the deal.  Nightengale suggests the A’s have sought Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox for Montas.  If nothing else, these rumors suggest the White Sox know they’re a bit short on pitching depth, especially with Keuchel’s struggles last year and Kopech’s likely innings limit.

On April 1st, the White Sox finally found a match for Kimbrel, sending him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock.  This was a strong move for the White Sox, vindicating their decision to exercise Kimbrel’s option.  In the 34-year-old Pollock, the White Sox effectively fill their right field vacancy with a player who posted a 135 wRC+ over 632 plate appearances from 2020-21.  Pollock’s injury history suggests he’s good for about 115 games per year, so the Sox will be covering his absences with Adam Engel and Vaughn.  The White Sox can’t exactly time when Pollock will get hurt, but the goal will be to have him active for the playoffs.  The Sox also completed a smaller swap with the Collins-McGuire deal, improving their defense at the backup catcher position.

With Yasmani Grandal behind the plate, Jose Abreu at first base, Tim Anderson at shortstop, Yoan Moncada at third, Eloy Jimenez in left, and Luis Robert in center, the White Sox came into the offseason with a strong core of hitters.  Pollock only deepens that mix.  Vaughn, the third overall draft pick in 2019, should bounce around between the outfield corners, first base, and DH depending on the team’s needs.  Anderson is under team control through 2024, Moncada through ’25, Jimenez and Vaughn through ’26, and Robert through ’27.

In the aggregate, the White Sox didn’t necessarily do much to improve upon last year’s 93-win team.  When Pollock is healthy, they’ll clearly be better in right field, and the team won’t have to play Vaughn at an outfield corner.  Second base is mostly a wash.  They covered the losses of Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera with Graveman and Kelly, but also lost Garrett Crochet to Tommy John surgery.  The rotation is worse off for the loss of Rodon, but Kopech and/or a future trade might fill much of that void.  But maybe this was enough – the White Sox remain the clear favorite in the AL Central, and Tony La Russa’s crew is a credible threat to win the World Series in 2022.

Hinch: No Structural Damage In Matt Manning’s Shoulder

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April 19: Manager AJ Hinch said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this morning that Manning’s initial diagnosis is “as positive as it could be” (Twitter link via Jason Beck of MLB.com). Imaging revealed that Manning is dealing with inflammation and some tendinitis, but the shoulder appears to be structurally sound. The Tigers have not determined whether Manning will make his next start but surely breathed a sigh relief nevertheless upon learning that there’s no major damage.

April 16: The Tigers have dealt with more than their share of injuries in this young season, and they may have suffered another today. Matt Manning was pulled early from his start with right shoulder discomfort, the team announced. This comes just a day after fellow young starter Casey Mize was placed on the injured list with a sprained MCL.

Beyond their young starters, the Tigers already began the season without Riley Greene, one of the top prospects in the game. Only recently, offseason acquisition Javier Baez was also placed on the injured list.

Manning and Mize together represent one of the primary reasons the Tigers are viewed by many as a team to watch this season. Losing both this early in the season would be a gut punch. Not to mention, they are already without Spencer Turnbull, whose career was on the upswing before Tommy John surgery knocked him out of commission.

As for Manning himself, the 24-year-old former ninth overall pick made 18 starts last season, putting down a a 5.80 ERA/4.62 FIP over 85 1/3 innings. Today was just his second start of the young season, having tossed six innings of one-run baseball in his season debut against the Red Sox.

For today at least, Drew Hutchison stepped in for Manning, tossing three scoreless innings of one-hit relief. Hutchison could be a candidate to stay in the rotation, should Manning require a stint on the injured list. Michael Pineda is already expected to join the rotation in Mize’s place. The 31-year-old Hutchison is in his second season with the Tigers. He notched a 2.11 ERA over 21 1/3 innings last season in what was his first big league action since 2018.

Brewers Trade Dustin Peterson To Phillies

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The Phillies announced this morning that they’ve acquired outfielder Dustin Peterson from the Brewers in exchange for cash and assigned him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Peterson, 27, was the No. 50 overall draft pick by the Padres back in 2013 and was well-regarded enough a year later to be one of four players San Diego traded to Atlanta in exchange for then-star outfielder Justin Upton. Peterson, however, never put together a particularly lengthy run of success in the upper minors. He made a brief big league appearance with the Braves in 2018, going hitless in two plate appearances, before the rebuilding Tigers plucked him off waivers that September.

Detroit gave Peterson a bit more of a run in 2019, but he still received what could charitably be described as a cup of coffee in the Majors. Peterson logged 17 games and 47 plate appearances as a Tiger in 2019, hitting .227/.277/.318 with four doubles, a stolen base and a 14-to-2 K/BB ratio.

The 2021 season was perhaps Peterson’s most productive in Triple-A, as he spent the year with the Brewers’ top affiliate and posted a solid .271/.347/.416 batting line with nine home runs and 15 doubles in 329 trips to the plate. Encouragingly, the righty-swinging Peterson walked at a 9.1% clip that ranked as the best mark of his minor league career and struck out in just 13.4% of his plate appearances — far and away the lowest rate of his career. He’s only had 11 plate appearances in Triple-A so far this season but has continued those trends in that microscopic sample, walking four times against just one strikeout. In parts of five Triple-A campaigns, Peterson is a .268/.327/.394 hitter.

Originally drafted as a third baseman, Peterson moved to the outfield after just two minor league seasons and has been primarily a left fielder to this point in his professional career. His 3826 innings there are more than he has at every other position combined, though it’s worth pointing out that in addition to his third base experience back in 2013-14, Peterson has logged more than 1000 innings at first base and more than 400 in right field.

The addition of Peterson is likely more about minor league depth than it is near-term help for the MLB roster. The Phils lost both Odubel Herrera and Mickey Moniak to early injuries, and they also traded Adam Haseley to the White Sox late in Spring Training. That’s prompted them to bring Simon Muzziotti up to the big leagues and lean on Matt Vierling in center field. Peterson will join Roman Quinn, Justin Williams, John Andreoli and Jorge Bonifacio in the outfield mix with Lehigh Valley for the time being, though it’s possible that with a big showing in Triple-A, he could work his way up to the Majors at some point.

This marks the second time in as many weeks that Milwaukee has traded away a fairly productive depth option in exchange for cash. The Brewers traded infielder/outfielder Jamie Westbrook to Detroit in exchange for cash on April 13.

Jake Arrieta Announces Retirement

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A former Cy Young winner is stepping away from the game. In an appearance on Barstool’s Pardon My Take podcast, Jake Arrieta announced he is set to retire (interview around 56:00 mark). “I haven’t signed the papers, man, but I’m done,” Arrieta said.”It’s time for me to step away from the game. At some point, the uniform goes to somebody else. It’s just my time, really. … Yeah, man, I’m done.”

Arrieta, now 36 years old, retires after a 12-season MLB career. A fifth-round pick of the Orioles out of TCU in 2007, he made it to the majors midway through the 2010 campaign. He spent three-plus seasons in Baltimore, never really clicking despite getting a few opportunities to crack the starting rotation. Arrieta made 69 appearances in black and orange, pitching to a cumulative 5.46 ERA/4.72 FIP. His strikeout and walk numbers improved later in his time with the O’s, but the results never lined up and Baltimore traded him to the Cubs in early July 2013.

That deal — which saw Arrieta and reliever Pedro Strop head to the North Siders for starter Scott Feldman and backup catcher Steve Clevenger — proved one of the most consequential trades in recent MLB history. Arrieta had decent results down the stretch with the Cubs, but his peripherals didn’t suggest he was on the verge of a breakout.

Jake Arrieta

That’s exactly what transpired, though. By 2014, Arrieta had emerged as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He tossed 156 2/3 innings of 2.53 ERA ball, earning a ninth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. That was an unexpected age-28 breakout, but rather than showing any signs of regression, Arrieta took his game to another height the next season. In 2015, the right-hander tossed a personal-high 229 innings with an incredible 1.77 ERA. He led MLB with four complete games and three shutouts, allowing a league-low 5.9 hits per nine frames.

Arrieta had a very strong first half that year, posting a 2.66 ERA in 121 2/3 innings. Yet it’s the second half of that 2015 season for which he might best be remembered, as he orchestrated one of the most overpowering runs by any pitcher in MLB history. After that year’s All-Star break, Arrieta threw 107 1/3 frames and allowed just nine earned runs (0.75 ERA). Opposing hitters posted a laughable .148/.204/.205 line in just shy of 400 plate appearances during that stretch, as the Cubs won 97 games and earned a postseason berth.

During that year’s Wild Card game, Arrieta continued his run of absolute dominance, tossing an 11-strikeout shutout in that season’s Wild Card game against the Pirates. He wasn’t as excellent during starts in the NLDS or NLCS, but he had launched himself into the upper echelon of starting pitchers. Arrieta won that season’s Cy Young award, and he’d pick up a third consecutive top ten finish the following season.

In 2016, Arrieta worked to a 3.10 ERA in 197 1/3 frames. He again allowed a league-low 6.3 hits per nine, picking up his first All-Star selection in the process. Alongside Jon Lester and a career-best season from Kyle Hendricks, Arrieta played a key role in the Cubs team that snapped their 108-year title drought. Chicago won both of his starts during the seven-game triumph over the Indians, during which he tossed 11 1/3 innings of three-run ball.

Arrieta remained in Chicago for one more season. He never recaptured his otherworldly 2014-15 form, but he still offered mid-rotation production with a 3.53 ERA in 168 1/3 innings. That offseason, he signed a three-year, $75MM guarantee with the Phillies. Arrieta’s first season in Philadelphia was solid, as he allowed just fewer than four earned runs per nine in 31 starts.

The past three seasons proved a struggle, as Arrieta’s velocity had begun trending downwards from its mid-90s peak by 2017. He posted a 4.64 ERA or higher in each of his final trio of campaigns, including a 7.39 mark in 24 starts between the Cubs and Padres last season. Arrieta returned to the place where he’d had the most success last winter, but the Cubs released him in August. He struggled in four starts with the Friars, and San Diego let him go shortly before the regular season wrapped up.

Obviously, Arrieta’s career didn’t end the way he would’ve liked. Yet there’s no question he reached a height few players in the game’s recent history have hit. From 2014-16, only future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw bested Arrieta’s 2.42 ERA among qualified starters. He played a pivotal role on the most successful teams in the past century of Cubs baseball and leaves the game with a Cy Young and a World Series title. Over his 12-year run, he won 115 games, and struck out upwards of 1400 batters in 1612 1/3 innings.

Arrieta retires with a career 3.98 ERA, although that mark is inflated by the struggles he experienced at each end. For a three-to-four year period, he was among the top few pitchers on the planet. MLBTR congratulates him on his excellent run and wishes him the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Injury Notes: Buxton, Walker, Tatis

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Twins center fielder Byron Buxton exited Friday’s game with what initially looked like it could be a notable knee injury, but an MRI over the weekend ruled out any structural damage. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters Monday morning that Buxton is feeling optimistic and that within the next day or two, the Twins would be “talking about a specific plan for getting him back out there” (Twitter link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). President of baseball operations Derek Falvey joined the booth as a guest during the broadcast of today’s game and added that the hope is for Buxton, who has not been placed on the injured list, to rejoin the lineup at some point during the Twins’ upcoming series against the Royals. The Twins will travel to Kansas City for a three-game set running from Tuesday through Thursday.

The latest on some more health situations around the game:

  • Righty Taijuan Walker is headed out on a minor league rehab assignment this week and is expected to start for the Mets’ Class-A Advanced affiliate on Wednesday, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Walker, who landed on the injured list last week due to a case of bursitis in his pitching shoulder, may only need the one rehab appearance before being cleared to return. DiComo suggests the 29-year-old right-hander will likely line up to start one of next week’s games against the Cardinals. Walker’s first outing of the season lasted just two innings, but it seems he’ll be able to make a swift return to the rotation, barring any setbacks of note during his rehab outing. Walker posted a 4.47 ERA in 30 appearances for the Mets in 2021.
  • Padres star shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr. has progressed to participating in light on-field baseball activities, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The two-time Silver Slugger award winner simulated taking ground-balls during infield practice before tonight’s game against the Reds, throwing the ball across the diamond to first base. Tatís is still wearing a brace and has yet to progress to fielding or swinging a bat as he rehabs from the mid-March surgery he underwent to repair a fractured scaphoid bone in his left wrist. The Padres initially placed a three-month timetable on his return to the field, though Cassavell writes Tatís recently opined he’s ahead of schedule in his recovery. The organization won’t make any firmer timetable until he begins to swing a bat, which manager Bob Melvin says will be the final baseball activity the team allows him to take. Tatís is on the 60-day injured list and ineligible to return until the first week of June. In all likelihood, he’ll be out for a bit beyond when he’s first eligible to return, but it’s welcome news that he’s progressed to getting some pre-game work in on the field.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves are coming off a World Series title, but they didn’t merely attempt to run it back with last year’s roster. Instead, they allowed one of the faces of the franchise to depart in free agency. In his place, they acquired a hometown star whom they quickly signed to an extension. They also fortified the late innings by adding a few of the best relievers on the open market as they attempt to repeat.

Major League Signings

Total spend: $62.15MM

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Freddie Freeman, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Drew Smyly, Jesse Chavez, Chris Martin, Ehire Adrianza, Johan Camargo, Abraham Almonte, Stephen Vogt, Richard Rodriguez, Edgar Santana, Josh Tomlin, Terrance Gore, Grant Dayton

Coming off the club’s first World Series title since 1995, the Braves figured prominently in the hot stove season, if not quite as predicted. Despite a widespread (if dwindling) industry consensus that franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman – the lone holdover from the period preceding the rebuild that followed its 2014 second-half collapse – would ultimately return to Atlanta, GM Alex Anthopoulos acted quickly when the lockout lifted, sending four prospects to the A’s for Matt Olson and signing him to a club-record eight-year, $168MM contract less than a day later.

Upsetting as the move may have been for Braves fans used to Freeman smiling and hugging his way through the Atlanta summer, Olson is one of a very small handful of first basemen capable of replacing the new Dodger’s ample production. From 2019 to 2021 (a period that includes Freeman’s monster 60-game MVP run in 2020), the Braves’ erstwhile face of the franchise compiled an elite .304/.402/.544 batting line, while his replacement put together a strong (if less eye-popping) .257/.354/.522 triple-slash. A closer look at the pair’s respective batted ball numbers suggest that Olson likely possesses a bit more power (he homered in 6.1% of his plate appearances over the same period, compared to Freeman’s 5%) if a bit less command of the strike zone (striking out 22.4% and walking 11.8% of the time compared to 16.4% and 13.2% for Freeman).

While the loss of a franchise stalwart could have downstream effects beyond questions of on-field performance, a closer look suggests Olson’s deal might actually offer the Braves more per-dollar value than Freeman likely would have had the club accepted either of the proposals reportedly put forward by his agent (per Buster Olney of ESPN): $175MM over six years or $165MM over five – or, for that matter, the six-year, $162MM pact he ultimately signed with the Dodgers. OPS+ (a park-adjusted metric that accounts for the fact that Freeman played his home games at roughly neutral Truist Park while Olson toiled in the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum) gives Freeman only a slight edge (143 to 139) over the 2019-2021 period, with Olson’s 153 2021 mark solidly outpacing Freeman’s 134. Adding to the mix Olson’s superior defense – the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards ranked Olson second (to Paul Goldschmidt) and Freeman eighth – and the fact that he’s four years younger than Freeman makes the case for the long-term superiority of the former Athletic perfectly sound.

And though the question of Freeman’s future has clearly loomed largest in Anthopoulos’ mind since November, first base was hardly the only position at which the Braves began the offseason in flux. Indeed, of the four outfielders the Atlanta GM acquired ahead of the 2021 trade deadline (Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler, and Eddie Rosario), only Duvall (whom the Braves had non-tendered only a few months prior) came with any control beyond the season’s final two months. Both Soler (who got a three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins) and Pederson (one-year, $6MM with the Giants) ultimately signed elsewhere, but the defending champs brought back Rosario –something of a folk hero in Atlanta after his MVP performance in the 2021 NLCS felled the Dodgers almost single-handedly – on a two-year, $18MM commitment, with a buyout-free $9MM option for 2024.

Anthopoulos reportedly maintained interest in Soler (the 2021 World Series MVP) even after re-signing Rosario, but the presence of Marcell Ozuna – who signed a four-year, $65MM deal ahead of the 2021 campaign but spent most of the season on administrative leave following a May  domestic violence arrest – always suggested that Soler, who has a similar profile on both sides of the ball, was unlikely to be more than a rental. Ozuna has spent the early portion of 2022 alongside Duvall and Rosario in the outfield, but he’ll likely return to the DH role that he occupied for most of his dominant 2020 campaign following the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. from knee surgery, which is expected in late April or early May.

Whether Acuña plays right or center field upon his return remains to be seen. Duvall, who played center through the Braves’ 2021 playoff run but often gave way to Guillermo Heredia late in games, opens the season in center, but he’s a career corner outfielder (if a very good one). Heredia remains on the roster as the club’s fourth outfielder, but the departure of Cristian Pache (possibly a perennial Gold Glover if he can hit enough to stick in the bigs) in the Olson deal leaves Acuña – whom the Braves had previously seemed intent on penciling into right field for years to come – as the most plausible center fielder on the roster. This could change, of course, should either of the Braves’ top outfield prospects – Michael Harris and Drew Waters – force his way to the bigs at some point in 2022.

Beyond Olson and Rosario, though, the Braves didn’t do much to bolster an offense that ranked 13th in wRC+ in 2021, reportedly kicking the tires on Carlos Correa but ultimately adding only backstop Manny Piña (on a two-year, $8MM deal) to be Travis d’Arnaud’s deputy and outfielder Alex Dickerson (1-year, $1MM) to DH until Acuña’s return and offer some punch off the bench thereafter. (Dickerson’s deal was initially non-guaranteed, but he has since made the team.) Even so, they’ll hope for improvement in production from Ozuna’s return to action (and return to form after a disappointing start in 2021) and roughly 120 games from a healthy Acuña, as well as a deeper catching unit that won’t require manager Brian Snitker to give significant at-bats to Kevan Smith, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jeff Mathis should d’Arnaud suffer another injury like the torn thumb ligament that sidelined him for the bulk of 2021.

The Braves will also hope for continued production from what’s arguably one of the game’s best infields. Third baseman Austin Riley, who rebounded spectacularly from a mediocre showing in 2020 and an ice-cold start to 2021 to the point that he garnered a number of down-ballot MVP votes, could emerge as a force to be reckoned with in the middle of the Braves’ order. The double-play combination of Dansby Swanson (an impending free agent) and Ozzie Albies (under club control through 2027 for far less than market rate) provides substantial up-the-middle power potential (Swanson slugged at a .449 clip in 2021, Albies .488) if a bit less in the way of on-base rate (Swanson notched a .311 OBP in 2021, Albies .310) than might be desired.

On the pitching staff, Anthopoulos opted to stand pat in the rotation – Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson anchor a group that opens the season with Huascar Ynoa and Kyle Wright in the fourth and fifth slots – but added substantial talent to a bullpen that had already proven itself capable of October dominance. He added Kirby Yates (expected to return around the All-Star break after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2021) on a two-year, $8.25MM pact ahead of the lockout and the versatile Collin McHugh for two years and $10MM shortly after it was lifted, as well as Tyler Thornburg on a non-guaranteed one-year deal and Darren O’Day on a minor-league deal (both have since made the team).

But the most surprising development came shortly after the open of Spring Training when longtime Dodger Kenley Jansen signed a one-year, $16MM deal to displace lefty Will Smith in the closer role. News of Luke Jackson’s season-ending arm injury (he’s since undergone Tommy John surgery) dampens expectations, but only minimally. Alongside the incumbent ‘Night Shift’ (a coinage of lefty Tyler Matzek to describe himself and fellow high-leverage arms Jackson, Smith, and A.J. Minter during the 2021 playoffs), Yates, McHugh, and Jansen give the Braves a strong case for the game’s best ’pen, even without Jackson in the fold.

As deep as the Atlanta bullpen looks on paper, though, the rotation appears comparatively thin. After losing Drew Smyly (who received a one-year, $5.25MM guarantee from the Cubs), Anthopoulos likely looked for a veteran innings-eater but evidently came up empty. Fried, Morton, and Anderson form a solid core, while either or both of Ynoa (who looked like the Braves’ best starter early in 2021 before breaking his hand punching the dugout in Milwaukee) and Wright (who’s lost much of his high-end prospect luster but dominated Triple-A in 2021 and turned in a crucial performance in long relief in Game 4 of the World Series) could settle into a spot in rotation.

Should any of this bunch succumb to injury or ineffectiveness, though, the Braves would be forced to turn to a stable of high-upside but unproven arms that includes Kyle Muller, Tucker Davidson, Bryce Elder, Touki Toussaint, and Spencer Strider. They’ll also hope for the return of Mike Soroka (who ruptured his Achilles tendon in his second start of the 2020 season before re-tearing the ligament while walking in the Braves’ clubhouse) at some point, but no one will be quite sure what to expect from the onetime ace-in-waiting after such a long layoff and a pair of career-threatening surgeries.

There’s a reason no team has repeated as World Series champs since the Yankees’ three-peat from 1998 to 2000, and the 2021 Braves – who didn’t spend a day over .500 until early August – were almost certainly not the ‘best’ team in baseball before they captured a virulent strain of October magic that will live in Atlanta sports lore for generations to come. And even after finishing second in attendance in 2021 and reporting a substantial revenue increase in October, corporate ownership group Liberty Media appears to have signed off on only a relatively modest payroll increase, pushing the Braves into the upper third of payrolls but well shy of the luxury tax threshold. Still, there’s a solid argument that the 2022 Braves could be a stronger overall club than their 2021 counterparts – particularly if they can stay healthy. The NL East should be much improved, but this year’s Braves team looks just as equipped as last season’s to make a deep run.

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