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MLB, Players Association Continuing To Discuss International Draft/Qualifying Offer Tonight

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Despite Major League Baseball’s announcement that Opening Day would not begin before April 14, the league and Players Association continue to discuss their roadblock on the international draft and qualifying offer (as first reported by Tim Healey of Newsday). Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic adds that the parties “(would) determine the number of games in the season” if a new deal is finalized.

The news that the two sides remain in contact could offer a modicum of hope for progress. They’d closed much of the gap on core economics issues, after all, before the league’s desire for an international draft and the union’s push for the elimination of the qualifying offer led to a stalemate.

However, as has become apparent throughout negotiations, there’s no reason to put the cart before the horse. Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets that in-person bargaining is finished for tonight; Robert Murray of FanSided adds they “plan to speak more tomorrow,” suggesting there’s little optimism about finalizing a CBA in the coming hours. Indeed, MLB and the Players Association have kept open lines of communication — even those that fall short of true “negotiations” — constantly in recent weeks.

It’s unclear how much talks will develop this evening. We’ve seen rapid changes in the tenor of negotiations a few times already. Progress towards an eventual endpoint has waxed and waned, particularly as the parties have met frequently over the past few weeks. There’s no indication at this point the league is considering backtracking on its announcement that the first four series of the regular season have been canceled. That was a unilateral MLB decision, though, and nothing bars them from putting those games back on the schedule if they and the union move towards an agreement in the coming days.

International Draft Remains Among The Biggest CBA Obstacles

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4:45pm: If the union rejects all of the league’s proposals regarding the international draft/QO, MLB believes there’s nothing left to discuss today, tweets Rosenthal. Presumably, that’d end negotiations and result in the league announcing further game cancelations.

4:38pm: Under the league’s “reopener” option, the union would have to decide whether to agree to an international draft on November 15, 2022. If they agree, the draft would go into effect in 2024. If they refuse, MLB would have the right to unilaterally reopen the entire CBA after the 2024 campaign (via Drellich).

4:29pm: The league hasn’t presented the MLBPA with a full proposal. It’s instead waiting on the union’s decision regarding the qualifying offer/international draft before discussing other topics, tweets Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.

4:05pm: Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet report the players are meeting internally to determine their next steps, including whether to put forth the owners’ latest proposal for a formal vote.

3:48pm: Rosenthal tweets that the players find the possibility of allowing the league to unilaterally reopen the CBA if no international draft is in place by 2024 unappealing.

3:20pm: Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports (Twitter thread) that MLB has offered the union some flexibility on the proposed international draft/qualifying offer. That tradeoff remains on the table, but if it’s truly a non-starter for the MLBPA, the league has put some other proposals forward.

According to Rogers, MLB is willing to take both the international draft and the elimination of draft pick compensation for free agents off the table. That’d leave both the existing international signing setup and the qualifying offer system for free agents as they’d been. Alternatively, MLB is willing to immediately eliminate the QO and push the international draft question back a couple seasons. If the MLBPA remains opposed to implementing the draft at some point down the line, the league would have the right to reopen the entire CBA.

The gap has also closed on the minimum salaries. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (on Twitter) the latest union proposal would have a $710K league minimum in 2022. That’s just $10K north of the league’s proposed $700K figure. The league’s offered minimum would finish at $770K by the end of the CBA, while the union is seeking $780K by 2026. That gap shouldn’t be hard to close.

2:41pm: Evan Drellich of The Athletic tweets that the union’s proposal dropped its bonus pool proposal to $65MM, while their proposed CBT thresholds dropped a good bit further. After previously seeking year-to-year thresholds of $238MM, $244MM, $250MM, $256MM and $263MM, today’s proposal from the union offered thresholds of $232MM in 2022, $235MM in 2023, $240MM in 2024, $245MM in 2025 and $250MM in 2026.

Those new thresholds from the MLPBA represent respective gaps of $2MM, $3MM, $4MM, $5MM and $8MM from the league’s proposed thresholds. Their $65MM bonus pool checks in $25MM north of the league’s proposed $40MM (the equivalent of $833K per team).

2:30pm: Many Latin players consider the potential implementation of an international draft a “nonstarter,” tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The MLBPA’s counteroffer also still sought additional movement in CBT thresholds and the size of the pre-arbitration bonus pool. SNY’s Andy Martino adds that ownership has become pessimistic after the union yet again rejected the notion of an international draft, which the league has sought to exchange for the elimination of draft compensation (Twitter thread).

Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet repot (via Twitter) that the league is expected to present the union with its own counter in the near future. A player vote could be conducted following that next MLB counter. Each team’s union rep and the eight members of the MLBPA executive subcommittee would be involved in that vote, which would require a simple majority to pass.

1:24pm: The MLBPA’s contingent has left the league’s offices after presenting a counteroffer, tweets Yahoo’s Hannah Keyser.

2:08am: The Players Association “requested to speak to its board again early tomorrow before coming back with a proposal,” an MLB official told Evan Drellich of The Athletic and other reporters.  No games have been canceled yet.  “Significant gaps remain between the sides,” a source tells SNY’s Andy Martino.

12:42am: There is hope for a collective bargaining agreement today between MLB and the Players Association.  Both sides continued to work in their respective New York City offices as Tuesday bled into Wednesday.  On Tuesday, MLB made an offer to the players that moved toward them in several key areas, including the competitive balance tax, the minimum salary, and the size of the new pre-arbitration bonus pool.  The MLBPA has tendered a counteroffer, the details of which are unknown at this time.

Aside from the remaining financial gaps, MLB’s offer came with a few sticking points.  One is the concept of a new, fourth competitive balance tax tier.  In the previous CBA, the levels were named the Base Tax Threshold, First Surcharge Threshold, and Second Surcharge Threshold.  The owners would like to add a Third Surcharge Threshold.  Using the owners’ latest offer, the 2022 thresholds would be set at $230MM, $250MM, $270MM, and $290MM, with increasing tax rates for each tier.  That new Third Surcharge Threshold would always sit $60MM above the Base Tax Threshold.

The owners are also insisting on the institution of an international draft.  The last known details on this come from Anthony Castrovince’s article for MLB.com on March 5, but keep in mind that “lead negotiators Bruce Meyer & Dan Halem [are] believed to be discussing that topic actively,” as per an 11:36pm March 8 tweet from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca.  Furthermore, MLB is said to be tying its offer to eliminate free agent draft pick forfeiture to the international draft.

It’s also worth noting that MLB’s last known offer was for a $40MM pre-arbitration bonus pool that did not increase throughout the five-year CBA.  The MLBPA’s last known proposal came in at $80MM in 2022 with growth to $100MM in ’26.  Nicholson-Smith has noted that “players have indicated a willingness” to move to a $70MM starting point growing to $90MM.  That would still mark a sizable gap.

As you can see in my post summing up the latest known positions of each side, the once-cavernous gaps are narrowing with the prospect of a 162-game season hanging in the balance.  The new draft lottery concept seems set to include the first six picks, although other details such as penalties for teams finishing near the bottom of the standings in consecutive seasons may yet need to be hashed out.  Both sides have been in agreement on the universal designated hitter for a while now.  The sides seem to be coming together on reducing the amount of notice MLB needs to make on-field rule changes.  And perhaps most importantly, there seems to be consensus that the playoffs will be expanded to 12 teams in a potential new CBA.

On Monday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that MLB suggested “that if a deal comes down Tuesday, players can be in spring training camps by Friday, and lost games could be made up on off days and with doubleheaders.”  Tuesday came and went without an agreement, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted last night, “The new deadline is now Wednesday afternoon for the two sides to reach an agreement before MLB cancels another week of games.”  It’s fair to question the necessity of MLB’s ever-changing deadlines, but it’s clear that today is pivotal as we wait to see if the league’s lockout will end on its 98th day.

Latest On Potential International Draft

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1:00pm: Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan of ESPN add some further details (Twitter links). The top pick’s slot value is actually a slight bit higher than previously reported, landing at $5.5125MM. That’s due to MLB upping the size of each slot value from the weekend by a matter of five percent. Gonzalez notes that MLB is “flexible” on the $20K cap for undrafted free agents, though the extent to which the league is willing to bend isn’t totally clear.

Passan writes that rather than set the draft order based on record, teams would be broken up into “pods” which would rotate every year. Castrovince suggested a similar setup this weekend, writing that pods of six clubs would rotate through the draft order each year; in other words, Pod A would have selections one through six in a given year, then seven through twelve the following season, etc. Passan posits “pod” sizes of seven or eight teams rather than six (thus giving teams a crack at the top of the draft every fourth year rather than every fifth), but the general concept remains the same.

11:50am: Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that under MLB’s proposal, the international draft would not go into effect until 2024. That’s surely vital for Latin American players, as some prominent figures have stressed that if implemented, the finer details should not be rushed.

Among those prominent voices is Red Sox icon David Ortiz, who spoke passionately in a message to his countrymen from the Dominican Republic today (Twitter thread via ESPN’s Jeff Passan). Ortiz stressed the importance of the league and players working together to get the specifics of the draft right. Ortiz adds:

“Baseball is such a big thing in the Dominican. Baseball keeps kids off the streets. We don’t want that to walk away from us. We want it to get better. That’s my focus. Nothing else. We have the youth. People wanting to be me, Pedro, Pujols. We can’t let that go away. At the end of the day, I don’t want those kids to be affected by it. I already played baseball. I had a career. I care about the kids being treated right. I understand MLB wants to have control over everything they do, but you’re not going to change the system overnight. Baseball is one of the secret weapons of the Dominican economy. If you talk about a draft here in the states, you have choices. You can do football, basketball. … Dominican has baseball to make your way out. That’s it. You have to be careful.”

11:00am: The potential implementation of an international draft has become a focal point in collective bargaining between MLB and the Players Association as gaps elsewhere in negotiations begin to close. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reported last night that the international draft is one of the largest remaining obstacles in talks. The league, reportedly, is seeking to trade an elimination of the qualifying offer system for the draft — a concept they’d already proposed in prior packages. Of course, everything in these package proposals is dependent on other factors, so the league now using the QO elimination as a “give” in exchange for the international draft likely just reflects the manner in which other elements of the proposals have ebbed and flowed.

In some new developments on the topic of the proposed international draft, Maria Torres and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report this morning that MLB’s latest proposal included a slot value of $5.5MM for the No. 1 overall pick (Twitter thread). That’s up slightly from the league’s weekend proposal, wherein MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince reported that MLB was positing a potential $5.25MM slot value for the first pick of a 20-round draft. Slots would be hard-capped and picks could be traded, per Castrovince, as opposed to the soft-capped “recommended” slot values in the domestic draft, where picks cannot be traded (save for those awarded via the Competitive Balance Lottery). The newly proposed $5.5MM top overall slot value is still miles shy of the $8.415MM first overall slot value from this past summer’s domestic amateur draft; today’s $250K bump narrowly pushes the top international slot’s value past the No. 7 overall slot value from the 2021 amateur draft.

Major League Baseball’s pitch to the union is that the proposed slot values could generate as much as $23MM in additional spending on international amateurs in a given year, per Torres. She adds that the final 100 slots in the draft would be valued at a combined $3.3MM, whereas MLB has pointed out to the union that the bottom 100 bonuses in the past couple of signing periods have averaged about $1.78MM in total. Notably, that particular spin ignores that the “bottom 100 bonuses” in prior signing periods is not necessarily equivalent to the “bottom 100 slots” in an international draft where only a finite number of players (600) can be selected. Torres notes that undrafted international amateurs could still sign, but Rosenthal tweets that bonuses would be capped at $20K.

Regardless of specific permutations on the late rounds and undrafted amateurs, there’s still some considerable pushback against the concept from the players’ end of things — particularly among Latin American big leaguers. Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. has publicly pushed back, telling El Caribe (Twitter link):

“The International Draft is going to kill baseball in [Dominican Republic]. It’s going to affect us a lot, because there will be many young people who used to give them the opportunity to get a bonus and with the draft it will not be the same.”

ESPN’s Marly Rivera reports that many Latin American players share those concerns, adding that the general sentiment among Puerto Rican players is that their entry into the amateur draft has stunted the development of baseball on the whole. Astros catcher Martin Maldonado, originally drafted by the Angels out of Dr. Juan J. Nunez high school in Puerto Rico, tweeted this morning that he “agrees 100%” with the concerns raised by Tatis.

As Rivera further notes, MLB’s position on the international draft is that it will help to regulate some of the many improprieties that currently exist on the international market. It’s a poorly kept secret that verbal agreements between Major League teams and international amateurs are in place years before those players are eligible to sign on their 16th birthdays; Major League scouts are regularly evaluating players before they even reach their teenage years, and players can have verbal agreements with teams as early as 13 or 14 years of age. Additional concerns include steroid usage among baseball hopefuls during those critical formative years, as well as exploitative behavior from many “buscones” who arrange deals between teams and amateur players.

The pushback from the union, presumably, is that these improprieties can be corrected without the implementation of an amateur draft. Major League Baseball has rules and regulations in place that are intended to bar early agreements of this nature. However, with the exception of former Braves GM John Coppolella being banned for circumventing those rules, punishments have been few and far between. Even after Coppolella’s ouster, early deals have continued. As Mike Axisa of CBS Sports explored recently, MLB could crack down on corruption on the international market by simply choosing to enforce its own typically ignored rules and regulations.

All that said, the draft system does figure to have some benefits for international amateurs. MLB’s current system is hard-capped, and while the draft wouldn’t change that, the simple fact that the combined value of the draft slots being proposed exceeds the combined value of the current international bonus pools means more money will go to those amateurs. Further, even though the league could likely cut down on corruption without implementing the draft, that does not change the fact that the draft ought to nevertheless curtail those early agreements. (Other forms of corruption, of course, will be more difficult to suppress.)

For the players, concerns surely remain about the potential stunting of baseball’s growth in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Panama, Colombia and other markets. It’s also a clear negative for a player not to be able to choose his first team and to not be able to negotiate more openly. The draft could potentially lead to fewer high-dollar deals for the market’s very best prospects — depending on the exact distribution of slot values.

Ultimately, given the manner in which the two sides have begun to move closer to an agreement on other elements of the deal, it seems hard to imagine the finer points of an international draft truly scuttling a deal. It’s clear there’s still work to be done, though, and much of it will center around this topic.

Rockies Fire Scott Van Lenten

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The Rockies have fired director of research and development Scott Van Lenten just six months after hiring him away from the Nationals, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Saunders cites “major disagreements” between Van Lenten and the club regarding what his role would be moving forward. Thomas Harding of MLB.com adds that assistant GM Zack Rosenthal will currently oversee the Rockies’ R&D department while the club looks for a replacement. Remarkably, Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette reports that the Rockies’ R&D department now has only five employees — most of whom were hired by Van Lenten.

The Rockies championed Van Lenten as a pivotal hire who would be tasked with building out an analytics department that was sorely lacking and miles behind most teams throughout the league. His hiring, which came only a few months after owner Dick Monfort dismissed GM Jeff Bridich and promoted longtime scouting director Bill Schmidt to the post, was one of many steps that was framed as progress for the front office. Specifics on what prompted the relationship to go south so quickly haven’t yet come to light, but it’s worth pointing out that Van Lenten was sold on a very specific vision for his role at the time of his hiring.

“When the Rockies reached out and were interested in talking to me, I was excited but I wanted to make sure what I was getting into,” Van Lenten told Harding back in September. “I wanted to make sure they were going to provide the resources, make sure they were going to be supportive and have a real vision and are going to have the resources to do it the right way. They were very supportive.”

Apple, NBC Agree To Streaming Deals With Major League Baseball

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March 9: In addition to their deal with Apple, MLB has also finalized a streaming rights deal with NBC Sports, reports Mike Ozanin of Forbes. NBC will purchase the rights to the Monday Night Baseball and Wednesday Night Baseball packages that ESPN did not include in its new deal with MLB. Those games will “mainly” be streamed on NBC’s Peacock streaming service, though specific broadcast details have not yet been announced by MLB or by NBC.

The pair of new streaming deals will pay MLB $115MM annually, Ozanin further reports. MLB’s deal with Apple is a seven-year contract that comes out to $85MM annually. The NBC/Peacock deal is shorter, clocking in at two years and $30MM in annual rights fees. It’s not yet expressly clear that the NBC deal will make those games exclusive to Peacock, but assuming that’s the case (as it is with Apple), the league would be subtracting somewhere around 100 total games (perhaps a bit more) from its MLB.tv package with this pair of new streaming deals.

Under MLB’s previous deals with ESPN, FOX and TBS, the league pulled in an average of $1.55 billion in annual television rights between the regular season and the playoffs. Their newest batch of contracts with those providers, plus the recent additions of Apple and NBC, give MLB a 26% increase in television and streaming revenue — up to an average of $1.96 billion each year, according to Ozanin. That comes out to about $65MM per club, before factoring in each team’s local/regional broadcast contracts.

March 8: Major League Baseball and Apple announced Tuesday that they have agreed to a streaming deal that will see two Friday night games streamed exclusively on Apple TV+ each week, beginning with the 2022 season. “Friday Night Baseball” will feature live pregame and postgame shows and will be available in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Puerto Rico, South Korea and the United Kingdom. Apple TV+ will also offer a program called “MLB Big Inning” to U.S. viewers, which the press release describes as a “live show featuring highlights and look-ins airing every weeknight during the regular season.”

The new service will allow fans to watch “marquee” games each Friday which will be “free from local broadcast restrictions.” Fans who are frustrated by the blackout issues that have served as a persistent source of consternation for MLB.tv users will surely welcome an alternative — particularly those who are already subscribe to Apple TV+.

However, the Friday Night Baseball deal now removes two games per week from that same MLB.tv package, given that today’s press release from Apple emphasizes the exclusivity of those Friday night broadcasts. That’s sure to raise the ire of MLB.tv users who do not have an active Apple TV+ subscription, as they’ll now be required to sign up for an additional monthly service if they wish to catch those Friday night contests. Today’s press release indicates that “for a limited time,” Friday Night Baseball will be accessible without a subscription but offers no further detail.

Of course, it’s only natural to see Major League Baseball continue to push into the streaming space, as they’ve done in recent years with live-game broadcasts on YouTube and Facebook. Other such deals will surely follow, particularly given how prominent this model is becoming throughout all of professional sports. Amazon Prime began streaming Thursday Night Football games in recent years, for instance, while other services like Peacock, Hulu and Paramount+ have increasingly begun to offer exclusive live sports streams as part of their models. There’s considerable profit to be gained by expanding streaming partnerships in this fashion, even if it comes at the expense of MLB watering down its longstanding MLB.tv offerings.

“Apple is the ideal partner to bring ‘Friday Night Baseball’ to fans around the world,” MLB chief revenue officer Noah Garden said in a statement within today’s press release. “Following milestones like the launch of At Bat on day one of the App Store in 2008 to the integration of Apple technology in ballparks across the country, this robust new game package is the perfect next collaboration in our long history of offering quality and innovative content to our fans. With national availability and international reach, MLB on Apple TV+ offers an exciting new platform to fans that allows a wider audience to connect with the game.”

Phillies To Sign Aaron Barrett, John Andreoli To Minor League Deals

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The Phillies are expected to finalize minor league contracts with righty Aaron Barrett and outfielder John Andreoli in the near future, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (Twitter link). Neither deal has been formally announced just yet, though the Barrett indicated on Twitter that he has indeed reached a deal with the Phils.

Barrett, 34, has spent his entire professional career in the Nationals organization prior to inking this deal. The former ninth-round pick was well on his way to solidifying himself as a quality big league reliever in 2014-15, pitching 70 innings of 3.47 ERA ball with a 28.3% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate out of the Nats’ bullpen over that pair of seasons. That’s a strong strikeout rate even by today’s standards, but it was all the more impressive in 2014-15,when the leaguewide rate was about three percentage points lower than present levels.

The 2016 season was a lost one for Barrett, however, as he missed the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery (and having bone spurs removed from his elbow as well). After nearly a year of rehabbing the injury, Barrett suffered a far more gruesome injury in 2017, when he broke the humerus bone in his right arm in a rehab appearance with the Nats’ Triple-A club. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post detailed the scene and the surgery required to repair that injury, which renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews likened to a traumatic injury more akin to one sustained in a severe car crash.

Barrett missed the 2018 season recovering from that surgery but never gave up on his goal of returning to the big leagues. The emotional video of Double-A manager Matt LeCroy informing Barrett that he was going back to the Majors in 2019 went viral (and is still a must-watch for baseball fans who did not see at the time), and Barrett’s similarly emotional return to the mound (video link) was one of the better moments along the way during Washington’s Cinderella run to the 2019 World Series title.

While he’s still only pitched four big league innings since making it back to the show in 2019, Barrett had a strong 2021 season in the minors with the Nats. He again spent considerable time on the injured list but posted a 2.13 ERA through 38 innings across three levels when healthy.

As for the 31-year-old Andreoli, he’s appeared in two big league seasons, seeing time with the Orioles and Mariners in 2018 before a brief seven-game stint with the Padres in 2021. He only has 74 big league plate appearances, during which he’s batted .224/.284/.269. Those have come in scattered and inconsistent fashion, however, and Andreoli has a track record of posting big on-base percentages in the upper minors, as evidenced by a career .258/.373/.414 slash in more than 2600 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s walked in 14.8% of his plate appearances in Triple-A — albeit against a 26% strikeout rate. Andreoli has more than 2000 innings of professional experience at all three outfield positions: 3127 in left field, 2546 in center and 2130 in right.

International Draft Presents Key Topic Of Discussion In CBA Talks

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11:46 pm: Nicholson-Smith reiterates that the international draft has become a key sticking point (Twitter links). He hears that the league considers it a crucial feature of any agreement but the union still has concerns about its inclusion in a deal.

11:26 pm: Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the league has indeed received the MLBPA’s counterproposal and is currently reviewing it.

11:20 pm: Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets that both the league and union are meeting amongst themselves at the moment. The plan is to continue negotiations even though MLB’s imposed midnight deadline has passed on the East Coast. It’s not known whether the union has yet officially made its counteroffer.

10:14 pm: Nicholson-Smith hears that the union has discussed the possibility of lowering its demand on the pre-arb bonus pool to $70MM this season, followed by $5MM raises annually. That’d still be a rather significant gap above the league’s proposed flat $40MM mark, although it’d be down $10MM — the same amount of MLB’s most recent move — from its last offer.

10:10 pm: Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet report (Twitter links) that some players are “encouraged” by the league’s movement on core economics. However, the union has expressed concern about the possibility of an international draft, which would inherently involve those players no longer getting a choice of their first employer. That’s been of particular concern to some Latin American players, according to Sportsnet.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports that the union will soon send back a counteroffer, with multiple reports indicating tonight’s discussions could carry over into the early morning hours. Nicholson-Smith describes the international draft/qualifying offer as the biggest obstacle, hearing that the sides are “close” on the numbers for things like the CBT and pre-arb bonus pool (Twitter links).

9:35 pm: Sawchik adds that the “gap has closed” today, but he cautions there are “still issues to work through.” Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe tweets that some on the players’ side don’t believe a deal is close to being finalized. The union is still reviewing the terms of the league’s offer.

9:17 pm: MLB’s proposal contained a 12-team postseason field, reports Travis Sawchik of the Score (on Twitter). The union was only amenable to a 14-team playoff that would’ve introduced the “ghost win” for division winners, according to Sawchik, an idea that proved a non-starter for the league.

8:44 pm: Drellich and Ken Rosenthal report that the league has proposed a bonus pool that would hold flat at $40MM each season throughout the terms of the CBA. That’d involve a $1.33MM annual payment from each of the league’s 30 teams, which would be counted against every club’s luxury tax calculations. The Athletic also reports the year-over-year breakdown the league is offering on both the base tax threshold and the league minimum salary (annual CBT and minimums, respectively):

2022: $230MM, $700K
2023: $232MM, $715K
2024: $236MM, $730K
2025: $240MM, $750K
2026: $242MM, $770K

Additionally, Drellich and Rosenthal report a pair of the important conditions the league has attached to its most recent proposal (Twitter links). Most notably, MLB is hoping to introduce a fourth level of penalization to the luxury tax thresholds. Under the last CBA, there was a base tax threshold (set at $210MM in 2021) followed by levels of surcharge taxes for clubs that a) exceeded the tax by between $20MM and $40MM and for b) clubs that exceeded the tax by more than $40MM, with clubs greater penalties for reaching each tier. The league’s latest proposal would add a third surcharge level for teams that go more than $60MM above the base tax marker (with presumably even more penalties) in an obvious effort to curtail teams from blowing by the thresholds, as the Dodgers did last year and as many believe the Mets are prepared to do in 2022.

Additionally, MLB is tying the introduction of an international draft to the elimination of the qualifying offer. Removing draft pick compensation for signing free agents has been a goal of the union’s throughout the process. Drellich hears that MLB is also pursuing expedited authority for all rules changes, which would only be made over an offseason.

The Athletic reports a few more minor provisions of the league’s last offer. MLB is willing to make the first six picks of the domestic amateur draft determined by lottery — it had previously been at five — with limits on how many consecutive seasons a club could be eligible based on market size. The league’s proposal would also include a limit on the number of times a player can be optioned to the minors within a season (five), would grant a full year of service time to the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting and would award teams additional draft picks for carrying high-performing players on their Opening Day rosters.

7:57 pm: Yesterday, Major League Baseball set tonight as its latest deadline for a new collective bargaining agreement to preserve a 162-game schedule. The league and Players Association have been meeting throughout the day. The tenor and specifics of those conversations has been kept relatively quiet, although some details have begun to trickle out.

Most notably, Evan Drellich and Andy McCullough of the Athletic report (on Twitter) that the league has offered a small bump on the competitive balance tax. The league is now offering to set the base CBT threshold at $230MM in 2022 and would see that figure rise to $242MM by the end of a five-year CBA. That’s up $2MM in Year One and $4MM by 2026 relative to the league’s offer yesterday. Whether the union has moved on the tax today isn’t clear; previously, the MLBPA had sought a $238MM figure for the upcoming season that would rise as high as $263MM by the end of the CBA term.

That would appear to be a minor move in the players’ favor on the surface, although Drellich cautions the rest of the league’s offer is unclear. Yesterday’s proposal of a $228MM base tax marker was said to come with “major strings attached,” and The Athletic reports today that MLB’s offer contains “other issues players are concerned with.”

Without knowing the full terms of the league’s offer, it’s impossible to hypothesize whether the sides are making progress towards any sort of agreement. In addition to the CBT, prominent topics of discussion include the expanded playoff field, the extent of a bonus pool to award excellent pre-arbitration players, and the league’s desire to institute a draft for international amateurs. MLB has also pushed to expedite the process by which it could implement on-field rules changes.

The union agreed last week to give the league authority to more quickly implement a few specific changes — namely a restriction on defensive shifts, larger bases and a pitch clock. However, MLB is seeking broad autonomy to unilaterally implement any on-field rules alteration within 45 days of informing the union. Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports tweeted this afternoon that expedited window was among the conditions attached to the league’s willingness to move the luxury tax upwards (although it’s unlikely to be the only tradeoff).

Dorsey also adds that the league may be targeting some form of “penalty for excessive spending.” What form that would take isn’t clear, although the union adamantly pushed back against the league’s push earlier in negotiations for stricter penalties for teams that exceeded the luxury tax. MLB agreed to take those off the table, but it’s possible the league is hoping to reintroduce something to that effect in exchange for an increase in the thresholds themselves.

Regarding the bonus pool, there was an immediate $50MM gap at last check. MLB had offered to allocate $30MM annually to that system throughout the term of an agreement. The union sought $80MM for that pool in 2022 and wanted that figure to rise by a few million dollars each year thereafter. Dorsey hears the league could be willing to go to $50MM on the bonus pool but is tying that to the union signing off on a 14-team postseason. The MLBPA has expressed amenability to a 14-team playoff but would prefer a 12-team system, and it’s not clear MLB moving from $30MM to $50MM on the bonus pool would be a sufficient enough incentive in the union’s eyes.

The parties continue to discuss these issues in an attempt to close the gap tonight. The league has already canceled the first two series of the regular season. It indicated those games could be made up in the event of an agreement today, but MLB has suggested another week’s worth of games would be scrapped if the parties don’t come to terms in the coming hours.

White Sox, Jhan Marinez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have signed reliever Jhan Mariñez to a minor league contract, according to the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. Chicago also added outfielder Cornelius Randolph on a non-roster pact.

Mariñez has 103 MLB appearances under his belt. He broke into the majors as a 21-year-old with the Marlins back in 2010, making four appearances. Regarded at the time as one of the more promising pitching prospects in the Florida farm system, he was sent to the White Sox in September 2011 as compensation for Chicago allowing manager Ozzie Guillén to be released from his contract to take the same role with the Fish. Mariñez made a pair of appearances with the Sox the following season but he was outrighted off their roster after a rough Triple-A showing in 2013.

It took a few seasons for Mariñez to make it back to the major league level, but he found a bit of success upon returning in 2016. After a few innings with the Rays, Mariñez landed in Milwaukee and tossed 58 2/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball. He pitched to a 3.70 mark between three clubs the following season but never missed the kind of bats one would expect from a reliever with a fastball that averaged just under 96 MPH.

Now 33 years old, he’s trying to make his first big league return since an eight-inning stint with the Orioles in 2018. Mariñez’s 3.56 career ERA isn’t bad, but his strikeout and walk numbers (17.1% and 10.2%, respectively) have been underwhelming. The Dominican Republic native has a 3.54 ERA in six career Triple-A seasons, where he’s punched out a more palatable 24.2% of opponents. He’s spent the past two seasons only participating in winter ball action, but he’ll now return to the affiliated ranks and try to pitch his way back onto the big league radar in his second stint with the Sox.

Randolph has never played in the majors, but he garnered some prospect attention early in his career. The Phillies selected him out of a Georgia high school with the tenth overall pick in the 2015 draft. Randolph appeared at the back half of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list the following winter after raking in rookie ball. Always projected to be a left fielder, he had a high offensive bar to clear though. The hope was he’d be a polished enough hitter to overcome those defensive concerns, but that didn’t play out in Philadelphia.

The lefty-hitting Randolph has always drawn a fair amount of walks, but he’s never hit more than 13 home runs in a minor league season. He’s dealt with increasing strikeout issues on his way up the ladder, including a 30.5% strikeout rate in 164 Triple-A plate appearances last year. Randolph owns a .254/.342/.377 line as a professional and hit .235/.323/.386 in his first crack at the minors’ top level. The 24-year-old elected minor league free agency at the end of last season and will try to earn a big league look in his new organization.

Royals Sign Daniel Mengden To Minor League Deal

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The Royals announced this afternoon they’ve signed right-hander Daniel Mengden to a minor league contract. He’s the second veteran hurler to join the organization on a non-roster deal in as many days, as they also added former Astros and Red Sox righty Brad Peacock.

Mengden has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, with the entirety of that time coming in an A’s uniform. The Texas A&M product broke into the big leagues in 2016, starting fourteen games down the stretch. He was tagged for a 6.50 ERA as a rookie, but Mengden found more success keeping runs off the board over the following seasons. He combined for 218 1/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball over 42 outings (including 33 starts) from 2017-19.

Despite that run of decent results, Mengden annually posted below-average strikeout and ground-ball rates. He excelled at avoiding walks between 2017-18 but saw the free passes spike to a 10.4% mark over 59 2/3 frames in 2019. Mengden’s ERA sat at 4.83 that season, which has marked his last real look at the big league level. He worked just 12 1/3 innings over four outings in the shortened 2020 campaign before Oakland outrighted him off their 40-man roster that September.

Mengden elected minor league free agency and signed with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization last offseason. He proved a solid pickup, tossing 120 frames of 3.60 ERA ball with a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 7% walk percentage for the Gwangju-based club. The 29-year-old returns to affiliated ball in hopes of pitching his way back to the bigs with a Kansas City team that has a fair amount of talented young starters but not a whole lot of rotation certainty.

A .350 opponents’ batting average on balls in play was a big culprit behind Brady Singer posting a 4.91 ERA last season, but estimators (4.04 FIP, 4.30 SIERA) were more favorable. Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic are former top prospects, but both struggled in 2021. That was also the case for veterans Brad Keller and (to a lesser extent) Mike Minor, although both seem likely to get season-opening rotation roles based on their career resumes. Hard-throwing righty Carlos Hernández and another former top prospect, Jackson Kowar, also started games last season, while Angel Zerpa made his big league debut during the final week of the year. Kansas City no doubt plans to get most of those hurlers continued work, although the lack of big league track record for the majority of those arms could give Mengden a chance to pitch his way onto the big league roster with a solid Spring Training and/or start at Triple-A Omaha.

Codi Heuer Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Cubs reliever Codi Heuer underwent Tommy John surgery recently, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. Heuer himself revealed that he’d undergone what looked to be a major arm procedure on Instagram earlier today. He’ll now be sidelined for the 2022 season.

Because Heuer is on the 40-man roster, he’s been restricted from working out with the Cubs or speaking to the team’s medical staff. As such, the injury occurred at a workout that was not supervised by the team and, presumably, the surgery was recommended by third-party medical experts as well. He’ll begin the rehab process without the assistance of the Cubs’ medical staff, though he’ll obviously be able to work with team doctors and trainers once the lockout is finally lifted.

Heuer, 25, was acquired from the White Sox alongside Nick Madrigal in the crosstown July trade that sent Craig Kimbrel to the South Side. The 2018 sixth-round pick had a dominant debut campaign in 2020, pitching to a 1.52 ERA with a 27.2% strikeout rate, a 9.8% walk rate and a 50% grounder rate in 23 2/3 innings of relief. His results slipped in 2021, however, as he slumped to an ERA north of 5.00 in his first 38 2/3 innings prior to that trade. Heuer’s struggles perhaps contributed to the ChiSox’ desire to acquire Kimbrel — a move that ultimately proved regrettable from the White Sox’ vantage point. Kimbrel struggled enormously following the swap, and he’s widely reported to be a trade candidate whenever the lockout lifts.

While the 2022 season will now be a lost one for Heuer, he can still be a prominent piece of the Cubs’ long-term relief corps. He’ll be controllable for three more seasons beyond the 2022 campaign and, if he’s able to pitch closer to his 2020 form than his 2021 upon returning, ought to be a candidate for high-leverage work before long. Heuer averaged 97.8 mph on his fastball as a rookie and posted a strong 14.4% swinging-strike rate that season.

Heuer’s velocity dipped a bit in ’21 and his fastball was hit quite a bit harder as a result — but opponents have been been embarrassingly feeble against Heuer’s offspeed offerings. Fifty-eight times so far in his young career, Heuer has ended a plate appearance while throwing a slider. He’s picked up 21 strikeouts in that time, and opponents have batted just .125/.171/.167 against the pitch. It’s been a similar story with his changeup; in 57 plate appearances ending on that pitch, opponents fanned 23 times and posted a .155/.219/.155 batting line. The slider has generated a 21.5% swinging-strike rate, while the changeup is even better at 26.6%.

With Heuer now out for the upcoming season, Rowan Wick becomes the even heavier favorite to pick up saves in the Cubs’ bullpen. They’ll quite likely be in the market for some additional bullpen help once the lockout ends, as Heuer, Wick and lefty Brad Wieck were the only three members of the currently projected relief corps who have even topped one year of Major League service time. Non-roster invitees like Jonathan Holder, Eric Yardley and Kevin McCarthy will all vie for bullpen jobs, but there’s a pretty clear need for some more established veteran arms to help piece the staff together.

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