Archives for February 2022

Latest On Freddie Freeman

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | February 25, 2022 at 4:23pm CDT

Freddie Freeman’s ultimate free-agent destination has been one of the more fascinating storylines of the offseason. At the outset of free agency, most felt a reunion with the Braves was a fait accompli, but as Freeman’s stay on the market has lingered, there’s been increasing speculation about him signing elsewhere.

We can’t know when we’ll get a resolution, thanks to the ongoing lockout, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s an industry sense that Freeman will act quickly once the transaction freeze lifts. Specifically, Sherman suggests that within 48 hours of the freeze lifting, Freeman’s “path will be publicly known.” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested something similar, albeit without the specific timeline, when writing late last month that both Freeman and the Braves could “act quickly” post-lockout.

Freeman’s fate is a renewed talking point among Braves fans in the wake of this morning’s earnings report from Liberty Media, which owns the Braves, although the newly available public insight into the team’s financials likely has little to no impact on their pursuit of Freeman. It’s always been a question of whether ownership and/or the front office deems Freeman’s asking price to be a prudent long-term move for the organization, and the team knew those figures would be going public at this point.

Perhaps more interesting, however, is Sherman’s suggestion that one theoretical Freeman suitor, the Blue Jays, has been given ownership approval for a “large increase in payroll” even after the additions of George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios over the past year-plus. The Jays’ desire to add a left-handed bat to the mix isn’t exactly a new revelation; they reportedly pursued Corey Seager prior to his deal with the Rangers and have been speculatively tied to names like Kyle Schwarber and the since-retired Kyle Seager. The Jays were even linked to Freeman as far back as Nov. 30. More recently, Rosenthal said on Sportsnet that he expects the Jays to be involved on Freeman whenever the lockout lifts (video link).

Toronto is just one speculative alternative, and Freeman has also been heavily linked to the Dodgers and Yankees in addition to the incumbent Braves. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested in a recent appearance on the Michael Kay Show (audio link, with Freeman talk starting around 11 minutes) that the Mets at least “checked in” on Freeman prior to the lockout, although SNY’s Andy Martino wrote this morning that the chances of a Freeman/Mets deal coming together border on nonexistent. Olney, too, mentions the Blue Jays as a team that has inquired on Freeman (along with the Dodgers), and he more broadly discusses a growing industry sentiment that Freeman won’t return to the Braves.

The Braves’ best offer to this point has reportedly been a five-year, $135MM contract. He’s said to be eyeing a six-year pact on the heels of another outstanding season. Freeman followed up his 2020 NL MVP Award with a .300/.393/.503 showing and 31 home runs during the regular season, plus a .304/.420/.625 line with five home runs in 69 postseason plate appearances. It was yet another impressive season for the ever-reliable first baseman, who has a wRC+ of 132 or better (indicating he’s been at least 32 percentage points more productive than the league average hitter) every year since 2013.

It’s certainly possible the Braves and Freeman can yet bridge the gap that remained in talks through the imposition of the lockout. Yet Atlanta has at least explored some alternatives. The Braves reportedly looked into Anthony Rizzo as a free agent possibility, and they’ve been mentioned as a potential trade partner with the A’s on Matt Olson on multiple occasions. Sherman speaks with a few agents and one rival executive who speculate that Atlanta could even pivot to pursuing an Olson trade between the time the lockout is lifted and when Freeman signs. The executive notes that someone like Kyle Wright — a big league ready starter who was formerly a top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect — fits the mold of the near-MLB talent the A’s could look for in an Olson deal. Wright no longer has the trade value to center a package that could persuade the A’s to part with Olson, but he’d be a sensible option for Oakland to explore as an ancillary piece in talks with Atlanta.

That’s conjecture from people outside the Atlanta organization, to be clear. What president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff have planned for the post-lockout scramble won’t become evident until offseason activity actually resumes. Yet the growing industry chatter reinforces that Freeman remaining in Atlanta may not be the lock many anticipated as the Braves entered the offseason riding high on a World Series title, particularly as other possible suitors loom.

Mets, Felix Pena Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | February 25, 2022 at 1:30pm CDT

The Mets have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Felix Pena, per the team’s transactions log. The former Cubs and Angels righty will presumably be in big league camp whenever it opens and will give New York some valuable depth in either the rotation or the bullpen. Pena was eligible to sign during the lockout because he was released by the Angels in September and did not return to a 40-man roster before season’s end.

Pena, who turns 32 today, was a quality swingman with the Halos from 2018-20, logging a combined 215 2/3 innings of 4.34 ERA ball with a 23.6% strikeout rate, a 7.7% walk rate and a 43.4% ground-ball rate. Those strikeout and grounder rates are both roughly in line with the league averages, while Pena’s walk rate checked in better than average. He’s not a flamethrowing power arm, but Pena sat 92.3 mph on his heater during that three-year stretch in Anaheim and has made 24 starts at the MLB level in addition to another 80 relief outings. He’s worked 142 innings in those 80 bullpen appearances, so he’s no stranger to multi-inning work.

A torn ACL ended Pena’s season in Aug. 2019, but he bounced back with a solid showing in the shortened 2020 schedule (4.05 ERA in 26 2/3 frames). His 2021 bordered on nightmarish, however. Pena missed the first six weeks of the season owing to a hamstring injury and was shelled for seven runs in 1 2/3 innings in his first two appearances upon returning. The Angels passed him through outright waivers not long after, and Pena went on to yield 61 earned runs through 68 1/3 innings in Triple-A Salt Lake before being released. He’s been lights out in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, though, posting a 1.91 ERA and a 27-to-7 K/BB ratio in 33 innings.

At present, the Mets’ rotation is expected to consist of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker, with options like Trevor Williams, David Peterson and Tylor Megill vying for the fifth spot. It’s possible one or more of those current fifth-starter candidates could land in a deep group of relievers that’ll be headlined by Edwin Diaz, Trevor May, Seth Lugo and Miguel Castro.

The Mets are widely expected to add another established arm to the rotation whenever the lockout ends, and there’s probably room for a lefty in the bullpen as well (particularly following the departure of Aaron Loup). Pena can compete for a long relief spot in the bullpen or head to Triple-A Syracuse, where he’ll serve as a quality depth option. In a total of 260 2/3 innings, Pena carries a 4.66 ERA and 4.05 SIERA to go along with strikeout, walk and ground-ball tendencies that are all within arm’s reach of the league average.

Liberty Media Reports Substantial Revenue Increase For Braves

By Steve Adams | February 25, 2022 at 12:28pm CDT

As one of just two MLB clubs owned by a publicly traded company, the Braves are the rare team whose books are regularly opened to the public. That leads to some yearly insight into the team’s revenues and operating budget. This morning, Liberty Media announced its 2021 earnings, reporting $568MM in total Braves revenue, $104MM in OIBDA (operating income before debt and amortization) and a $20MM operating income (Twitter links via Eric Fisher of SportBusiness Group and Jeff Passan of ESPN, the latter of whom has screenshots of the report).

Those numbers are specific to the Braves, not Liberty Media as a whole, and they represent (as one would expect) marked increases over the previous year’s revenues, when the MLB season was played without fans and shortened to 60 games in length. In 2020, Liberty reported a total of $178MM in revenue and operating losses both in OIBDA (-$53MM) and operating income (-$128MM).

It’s worth pointing out, too, that the Braves and other MLB teams opened the season without home stadiums at full capacity — although the Braves were the first team to shift to full capacity near the end of April. Still, their season began with Truist Park at 33% capacity for their initial seven-game homestand and moved to 50% capacity for their second homestand — another seven-game set later in the month. Atlanta averaged 13,006 fans per game during that first homestand (per the attendance figures available at Baseball-Reference) and 19,224 fans per day in that second homestand (which included a seven-inning doubleheader). Over the remainder of the season, the Braves averaged 32,181 fans per game, according to those same attendance figures.

Of course, while the Braves, like every other team, surely lost some early-season gate revenue due to capacity restrictions of varying levels, the Braves also reeled in more postseason revenue than any other organization in the sport. Truist Park hosted eight playoff contests as the Braves eventually took home a World Series championship. Liberty Media lists 79 regular-season home games (accounting for a pair of doubleheaders) and eight postseason home games, with a reported $6MM in “baseball revenue” (not “profit”) per home game.

Future regular-season earnings for the Braves seem quite likely to rise — not only because they’ll very likely be able to open the 2022 season at full capacity but also because the team’s 2021 success has paved the way for a considerable hike in ticket sales. Liberty Media president Greg Maffei said today that the Braves’ 2022 season ticket sales are already the highest they’ve been since 2000 (Twitter link via Jeff Schultz of The Athletic). David O’Brien of The Athletic adds that premium seating at Truist Park has already been sold out.

The earnings report from Liberty Media comes at a time when eyes are more fixated on the financial component of the game than ever before. Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are deadlocked in labor strife that, at its core, boils down to how the two parties ought to divide the billions of dollars generated by the league on a yearly basis. Commissioner Rob Manfred has already taken a great deal of flak for his claims that the “return on those investments (into owning a baseball team) is below what you’d expect to get in the stock market,” and his critics have already meted out a fresh set of barbs on social media today in the wake of Liberty’s books being opened.

Braves fans, in particular, are taking note of the team’s financials, as an understandably vocal majority has grown frustrated with the lack of a new contract for franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman. Today’s report will do little to deter fans’ belief that the team can “afford” to re-sign Freeman, but that does not mean that ownership and/or general manager Alex Anthopoulos will make it happen at all costs. It’s never really been a question of whether the Braves have the pure funds to outbid the field, after all, but rather one of whether ownership is comfortable making a commitment of that magnitude and perhaps whether the front office deems it to be prudent.

With regard to the labor discord, both the league and the union will interpret the figures differently for the purposes of negotiations. Ownership will presumably point to the $20MM operating income. The union will likely more heavily weight the OIBDA and note that these figures do not include (as pointed out by Ben Nicholson-Smith, on Twitter) tax benefits/write-offs, baseball-adjacent revenues from The Battery (the mixed-use development surrounding Truist Park) or the general appreciation in franchise value. The Battery, according to Liberty’s figures, generated an additional $42MM in revenue and added another $7MM onto the Braves’ OIBDA (for a total of $111MM). At the end of the day, while it’s new information for fans and the MLBPA, the league has surely been aware of these figures and their timeline for release and already has a sense of the role the specifics will play in negotiations.

AL East Notes: Anderson, Whitlock, Barnes

By Steve Adams | February 25, 2022 at 10:08am CDT

Rays righty Nick Anderson, on the mend from surgery that installed a brace to stabilize a damaged ligament in his elbow, tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he’s progressing through rehab and currently throwing from 60 feet. The 31-year-old originally sustained a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament in Spring Training 2021 but opted for rehab rather than Tommy John surgery after both the Rays’ medical staff and renowned surgeon Dr. Keith Meister advised that course of treatment. He returned to the big leagues in September but didn’t look close to his 2019-20 form in doing so. Anderson acknowledged that had he initially opted for surgery, he might be in a better place, rehab-wise, than he currently is, but explained that the decision is never so easy.

“Obviously, looking back at it, I’m like, well, shoot, I should have just got cut open right away when I had the injury,” says Anderson. “That would have solved that and I would have been back like the beginning of this year. But what do you do? You don’t ever really know. You just make a choice and roll with it, and hope it’s the right one.” Topkin notes that Anderson is expected back at some point in the middle of the 2021 season.

Some more from the division…

Red Sox right-hander Garrett Whitlock proved to be a sensational find in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, emerging as a key reliever who helped fuel Boston’s return to the postseason in 2021. Whitlock, who’s been a starter for the majority of his career, tells Stan Grossfield of the Boston Globe that he enjoys starting and “love[s] the routine behind it and everything,” but he took a team-first approach in adding that the competitor in him will work in any role he’s asked. The Sox, however, clearly haven’t ruled out the possibility of Whitlock transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation at some point, though, as the right-hander himself explained. “They told me to come in prepared to be, like, fighting for a starting job, and they’ll reevaluate it from there,” says Whitlock. “So I’m going to build up and I’m going to go in and be as prepared as I can be.” The comments from Whitlock come amid a much lengthier profile of the right-hander — an interesting look at his back story and journey to the Majors, wherein he even opines that Tommy John surgery “saved his life” by giving him the needed downtime for valuable introspection and to get into a better place, mentally, than he had been previously.
Matt Barnes’ 2021 was a tale of two seasons, as the Red Sox righty pitched to a dominant 2.25 ERA with a 42% strikeout rate through his first 44 innings before his performance fell off a cliff. Barnes yielded a dozen runs, surrendered four homers and walked nine batters in his final 10 2/3 innings of the season — a stretch of 10.13 ERA ball that led to what would’ve previously been an unthinkable omission from the postseason roster. Barnes, who signed a two-year extension worth $18.75MM in the midst of that hot streak during July, spoke to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com about the manner in which his season spiraled out of control and expressed confidence in a 2022 rebound. Barnes called it the “craziest year of his life” and a “perfect storm” of circumstances that led to his struggles, beginning with the development of some bad habits when he’d pitched quite a bit in a short period of time. He then missed more than two weeks after a positive Covid-19 test and feels he “ran out of time” to recalibrate and get back into form. He’s owed $7.25MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Sox must decide on an $8MM option for 2024, so a return to the form he showed up through early August is particularly important for both Barnes and the club.

“No Substantive Progress” Between League, MLBPA In Today’s Labor Talks

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

The owners and players held their fourth consecutive day of meetings as the two sides continue to try and work out a new collective bargaining agreement, yet once again, “no substantial progress” came from the session, according to The Athletic’s Evan Drellich (Twitter links). Representatives from the league and the MLB Players Association are scheduled to meet again tomorrow.

As outlined by Drellich and The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes, the union made two minor concessions based on past proposals. Whereas the MLBPA had sought to give an extra year of service time to 29 players considered to be victims of service time manipulation over the last five years, the union dropped that number to 20 players today.

The other new wrinkle related to the concept of a draft lottery to decide the first several picks of the amateur draft. The league offered a lottery covering the first four picks while the union wanted the lottery to cover the first seven picks, and today’s MLBPA proposal retained that seven-pick concept. However, the union altered its proposal to remove punishment for teams who had consecutive losing seasons. It “had been a league concern that [the] system would punish teams that were just bad and not tanking,” Janes writes.

MLBTR has learned more specifics regarding the union’s proposal for the draft lottery, which would take effect in 2023. All non-playoff teams would be included in the lottery. The odds of landing the first pick would be weighted by inverse order of the previous season’s standings as follows (assuming a 12-team playoff, as the MLBPA has proposed thus far):

Team 1: 15% (the team with the worst record in baseball)
Team 2: 15% (the team with the second-worst record in baseball)
Team 3: 15%
Team 4: 12.5%
Team 5: 10%
Team 6: 8%
Team 7: 6.5%
Team 8: 5%
Team 9: 3.25%
Team 10: 2.25%
Team 11: 1.5%
Team 12: 1.25%
Team 13: 1.12%
Team 14: 1%
Team 15: 0.88%
Team 16: 0.75%
Team 17: 0.625%
Team 18: 0.375%

The MLBPA is also proposing competitiveness adjustments. Revenue sharing payors that finish in the bottom eight in winning percentage in each of the two previous seasons or in the bottom 12 in each of the three previous seasons would pick no earlier than 10th. Additionally, any team that does not receive revenue sharing that finishes in the bottom 12 in each of the four or more previous seasons would have their pick moved to #18.

Also, beginning with the 2024 draft, any revenue sharing recipient finishing in the bottom eight in each of the three previous seasons would pick no earlier than 10th. Any such club in the bottom eight in each of the four or more previous seasons would have their pick moved to #18.

The union also made a slight modification in its efforts to grant rookies bonus service time based on performance, as Drellich first reported (via Twitter). Under the MLBPA’s proposal, infielders/catchers/DH’s who finish in the top five at their position in their respective leagues in WAR would receive a full year of service, while outfielders, starting pitchers and relievers who finish among their league’s top fifteen in WAR would as well. That’s a slight reduction from the union’s previous ask, which would’ve granted a full year of service for infielders/catchers/DH’s who finished among the top seven and outfielders/pitchers who finished among the top twenty.

The union is still pursuing a full year of service for top five finishers in Rookie of the Year balloting, all-MLB placement and a top three placement in Reliever of the Year voting. MLB has thus far been opposed to the idea of players “earning” service time, instead offering teams additional draft choices for promoting high-performing players at the start of the season.

Bigger-picture CBA topics (such as the luxury tax thresholds, minimum salary increases, salary arbitration eligibility, etc.) still remain up in the air, with today’s talks apparently yielding no movement on any of these issues. As has become a regular feature of these talks, both sides left a negotiating session feeling frustrated. According to Michael Silverman of The Boston Globe, the “players [are] upset with how far apart sides remain,” and “MLB negotiators told union they have run out of ideas and that owners are upset with players.”

February 28 remains Major League Baseball’s stated deadline for reaching a new CBA, or else the league has said it will start canceling games from the regular-season schedule. As Janes notes, “the union doesn’t exactly agree to [February 28] as a deadline,” so it remains to be seen whether any urgency will finally be shown by either side in tomorrow’s session, or in any talks that might be scheduled for the weekend or Monday. Considering the huge differences of opinion that remain between the league and the MLBPA, it is hard to believe that an entire new collective bargaining agreement could even be close to settled by Monday, let alone a fully agreement reached.

Quick Hits: Carpenter, Managers, Thome

By Anthony Franco | February 24, 2022 at 9:58pm CDT

Longtime Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter hit free agency at the end of the season when the team made the easy decision to decline their $18.5MM option on his services for 2022. The three-time All-Star and former Silver Slugger Award winner had fallen on hard times over the past few seasons. After a .257/.374/.523 showing that earned him down-ballot MVP support in 2018, Carpenter has hit only .203/.325/.346 over 910 plate appearances in the last three years.

Having recently turned 36 years old and reached the end of his contract, Carpenter could’ve thought about stepping away from the game. But he’s maintained that he has no plans to retire, and he recently detailed a series of changes he’s made to his offseason routine in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Carpenter connected with Reds star first baseman Joey Votto, who enjoyed an excellent 2021 season at age-37 after a pair of relatively down years. The lefty-hitting Carpenter praised Votto’s straightforwardness and candidly told Rosenthal “If he would have told me, ‘I think you’ve peaked. I think this is it,’ honestly, I probably would have retired. But he said, ‘I think you do have a lot left. I think you’ve kind of lost your way a little bit.’”

Carpenter suggested he’s embraced some different methods of training, increasing the intensity of his batting practice sessions and pairing with bat manufacturer Marucci to take a data-driven approach to his choice of bat. Carpenter also worked with private hitting instructor Craig Wallenbrock and former teammate Matt Holliday — now an assistant coach at Oklahoma State University — in an effort to rediscover his hitting mechanics. Given his age and recent struggles, Carpenter will have to settle for a minor league or low-base MLB deal whenever transactions again begin, but he tells Rosenthal he’s “more confident about where I’m at and where my swing is than I have been in years, maybe ever.” The piece is worth a read in full for those interested in Carpenter’s process and the mentality both he and Votto have taken in their pursuit of remaining productive as they get into their mid-late 30’s.

Some more odds and ends from around the game:

As the amount of data available to and used by teams has exploded in recent years, managers have found themselves with different complexities than they’d faced in the past. Fabian Ardaya, Cody Stavenhagen and Will Sammon of the Athletic recently examined the job description facing modern skippers, who are often tasked with weighing countervailing opinions among front office analysts, players and assistant coaches. Giants manager Gabe Kapler — who has had plenty of success in San Francisco but had been fired after two seasons (2018-19) leading the Phillies — tells the Athletic scribes he feels he wasn’t always perceptive enough of the flow of the game early in his career. “In 2018, I came in with a game plan and tried to fit the game into that game plan at times,” Kapler said. “And I think more and more I’m just sort of watching and experiencing the game in real-time, being present in real-time and noting more things about what’s happening in the dugout, what’s happening with our coaching staff, things like facial expressions with our players and body language on the field.” Ardaya, Stavenhagen and Sammon also chat with Angels skipper Joe Maddon, new Mets manager Buck Showalter, and various front office personnel about the challenges inherent to managing as part of a broader look at the position.
The Major League Baseball Players Alumni Association announced yesterday that Jim Thome has been hired as their next president. He takes over for fellow Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson, who had worked in that role since 1989. The MLBPAA, a nonprofit organization of over 8,600 current and former big leaguers, has a stated goal of “(promoting) the game of baseball, (raising) money for charity, (inspiring) and (educating) youth through positive sport images and (protecting) the dignity of the game.” “With what Brooks has done with his honesty, integrity, and leadership skills for the MLBPAA, I am very fortunate that I will be able to lean on him as well and ask him questions,” Thome said as part of the press release announcing the news. “To be the president is a great honor and it’s very humbling.“

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | February 24, 2022 at 7:07pm CDT

Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.

AL Notes: Rangers, Hosmer, Royals, Wells

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2022 at 3:12pm CDT

The Padres and Rangers discussed first baseman Eric Hosmer in trade talks last summer, as part of broader pre-deadline negotiations that also reportedly involved Padres prospect Robert Hassell and then-Rangers slugger Joey Gallo. It isn’t any secret that San Diego has been trying to get Hosmer’s contract off the books, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that Texas still wanted the Padres to cover the majority of the salary owed to Hosmer ($59MM from 2022-25). The exact numbers involved in the proposed trade isn’t known, and obviously the inclusion of Gallo (paid $6.2MM last season and projected to earn $10.2MM in 2022) was a major factor in the financial elements of any deal.

Since Gallo ended up being traded to the Yankees at the deadline, it remains to be seen if the Padres could revisit a more streamlined version of a Hosmer trade with the Rangers once the lockout is over, with Hassell perhaps included as a sweetener to convince Texas to absorb a larger chunk of Hosmer’s salary. Of course, the equation has now changed quite a bit for a Rangers team that has already added Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray in a pre-lockout spending spree. While the Rangers still have payroll space, they might prefer to spend on a player who can more readily help them contend in 2022. Hosmer has been roughly a league-average hitter over his last four seasons, and Texas already has a left-handed hitting first baseman in Nathanial Lowe who might be a better candidate to out-perform Hosmer at the plate (and at a fraction of Hosmer’s price tag).

Joe Kelly Hoping To Re-Sign With Dodgers

By Steve Adams | February 24, 2022 at 1:00pm CDT

The Dodgers declined a $12MM option on right-hander Joe Kelly in favor of a $4MM buyout after the right-hander suffered a biceps strain during the Dodgers’ NLCS showdown against the eventual World Series-champion Braves. Kelly hit the free agent market for the second time in his career and did not sign prior to the league’s implementation of a lockout on Dec. 2. He’s since been rumored to be a post-lockout target of the Cardinals, Kelly said today in a radio appearance on 570 LA Sports that he hopes to remain in Los Angeles (Twitter link, with audio).

“As with the whole lockout, once it’s over… teams are going to be signing,” Kelly said to host David Vassegh. “The signing period’s going to be like basketball. People are going to be signing at 4:00 in the morning. But obviously, I want to come back and be a Dodger — and the interest is mutual, so we’ve got to make something happen.”

Kelly’s mention of mutual interest — presumably in reference to interest shown by the Dodgers prior to the lockout — is the most concrete indicator to date of a possible reunion between the two parties. Interest on L.A.’s behalf is only natural, as the Dodgers are currently facing the potential of losing not only Kelly but also Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel (who already signed in Philadelphia) and Jimmy Nelson to free agency. That quartet combined for 167 2/3 innings of strong relief work out of Dave Roberts’ bullpen.

The 33-year-old Kelly, in particular, enjoyed a nice rebound campaign in 2021 after being limited to 10 innings in 2020. Although he missed the first five weeks of the 2021 season due to a shoulder injury, Kelly returned with one of the finest showings of his decade-long big league career. In 44 innings, he pitched to a 2.86 ERA (3.08 FIP, 3.o9 SIERA) with a strong 27.5% strikeout rate, an 8.2% walk rate and a huge 58.9% ground-ball rate. His average heater was down a tick from its 99.1 mph peak, but Kelly’s 98.1 average fastball velocity represented a bump from his 2019-20 levels.

Generally speaking, Kelly is one of baseball’s hardest-throwing relievers. He has, at various points throughout his career, flashed huge strikeout capabilities, strong command and high-end ground-ball tendencies — but rarely all at the same time. Those three traits coalesced in 2021 more than at any point throughout his career, after the Dodgers helped take Kelly’s grounder rate from above-average (49.9% from 2012-18) to outstanding during his time in blue (59.9%).

A pair of IL stints due to shoulder troubles kept Kelly off the mound more than he or the team would’ve liked during his three-year stint as a Dodger, but the overall body of work was sound. In 105 1/3 innings, Kelly posted a 3.59 ERA with a 121-to-44 K/BB ratio (26.9 K%, 9.8 BB%), 21 holds and three saves. Many of this offseason’s top relievers — e.g. Raisel Iglesias, Knebel, Kendall Graveman — are already off the market, so Kelly should be among the more desirable options still left in free agency whenever the lockout lifts.

As for his current health, Kelly noted that he’s already throwing multiple times per week, albeit not off a mound. He’s playing catch and long toss right now but stated that his arm is “definitely going to be ready for the season” — whenever the season begins.

D-backs Notes: Straily, Carroll, Lawlar, Barfield

By Steve Adams | February 24, 2022 at 10:10am CDT

Newly signed Diamondbacks righty Dan Straily chatted with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan at length about his decision to sign with Arizona and his goals of reestablishing himself as a quality big league starter after a strong two-year run in the Korea Baseball Organization. Straily indicated that he had multiple offers but chose to sign with the D-backs for several reasons, including a good opportunity to earn a roster spot out of the gate and relative proximity (a two-hour flight) to his family’s home in Oregon. He candidly acknowledged that he went to South Korea in need of major improvement — “I didn’t end up in Korea because I was ready to be in the major leagues at the time” — and discussed changes he’s made to his repertoire, including pitch grips, pitch shapes, and an entirely new pitch.

More broadly, fans will want to check out the whole Q&A to get a sense of Straily’s experiences pitching in a foreign league (and of being in the midst of KBO Spring Training when the pandemic broke out), his relationship with incoming pitching coach Brent Strom and the finer details of the work he’s put in to rebuild his career. Notably, Straily added that he considered waiting until the lockout ended to pursue a Major League contract but ultimately chose a minor league opportunity that allowed him to get rolling as quickly as possible. “We felt like it was time for me to get to work,” said Straily.

For those who missed it, Straily also chatted with MLBTR readers back in December. Within, Straily discussed the difference between pitching in the KBO and in MLB, recalled come key early-career advice from notable teammates, and shared plenty of memories from his time in the Majors and in South Korea.

A few more notes on the D-backs…

Buchanan also passes along a pair of updates on some of the system’s top prospects (Twitter link). Outfielder Corbin Carroll is back to 100 percent after last year’s season-ending shoulder surgery. The 21-year-old was the No. 16 overall pick in 2019 and is widely regarded as one of the sport’s top 50 overall prospects, even after his 2021 injury. Carroll sustained the injury on a swing that resulted in a home run in one of the just seven games he played with the Snakes’ High-A affiliate last season. He hasn’t had much of a look in the pros thanks to that surgery and the wiped-out 2020 minor league season, but Carroll owns a .316/.428/.542 batting line with four home runs, ten doubles, nine triples and 21 stolen bases (in 23 tries) through his first 215 professional plate appearances, dating back to 2019. He’s viewed as a possible long-term option in center field for the D-backs, though he has a good bit of development left after effectively missing two full years’ worth of reps in 2020-21.
Also on the mend from shoulder surgery is 2021 top draft selection Jordan Lawlar. The touted young shortstop and No. 6 overall pick sustained a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder not long after signing, limiting his professional debut to just two games with the D-backs’ Rookie-level affiliate. Lawlar, 19, is about a month behind Carroll in his rehab process, per Buchanan, and has not yet been cleared for batting practice. Like Carroll, Lawlar is a consensus top prospect, albeit one who has a bit more variance in terms of scouting reports on his future (which is perhaps to be expected given his lack of pro experience). Keith Law ranked Lawlar No. 31 among MLB prospects, noting that he had the “best package of tools” in the 2021 draft and adding that with Lawlar’s athleticism, speed, arm strength and power potential, he could be in the mix for the sport’s top overall prospect next year.
Josh Barfield spoke with Bill Ladson of MLB.com to discuss his journey from big league infielder, to scout, to his current role as Diamondbacks director of player development. Barfield “never saw [himself] getting into this side of the game” but now relishes his player development role and the challenges it presents. Citing mentors like former D-backs GM Dave Stewart, current GM Mike Hazen and his own predecessor Mike Bell, who tragically passed away last spring after a battle with kidney cancer, Barfield discussed how his love for player development and baseball operations has grown. His ultimate goal has now shifted from his early days as a scout, as he told Ladson he has his sights set on eventually becoming a general manager. While Barfield acknowledged that “there’s not too many of those jobs,” his interactions with Hazen and Stewart, as well as his “ultra-competitive” nature are now driving that ambition.

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