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Archives for February 2022

Latest On David Stearns’ Contract

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Back in October, when the Mets were still in search of a new baseball operations leader, SNY’s Andy Martino reported that Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns — known to be of interest to Mets owner Steve Cohen — may have a vesting option for the 2023 season on his contract. Stearns was already known to be signed through 2022 at the least, and the presence of a clause extending that date through the 2023 season only further reduced the likelihood that he’d be a realistic candidate in Queens.

Now, Martino adds some additional context, writing that Stearns is technically signed through the 2023 season, but his contract allows him to become a free agent this offseason if Milwaukee wins the National League pennant in 2022. Essentially, one of his perks based on the team’s on-field success would be the right to explore his market and field interest from other clubs a year earlier than otherwise scheduled.

The Mets, in particular, are known to covet Stearns. Their courtship of Stearns goes back two years now, as Cohen has sought permission to interview Stearns — and been denied by the Brewers — in each of the past two offseasons. Stearns has always been a long-shot target for the Mets, as most clubs generally only allow executives to interview with other teams if the opportunity in question would mark a promotion. Stearns already has baseball operations autonomy in Milwaukee and holds the title (president, baseball operations) that is now most commonly given to front office leaders.

Even if the Brewers don’t make a World Series appearance and trigger Stearns’ early out, it’s quite possible a fresh round of Mets/Stearns rumors will kick up again this winter nonetheless. After all, nothing had changed from Nov. 2020 to Nov. 2021 — Stearns was still under contract for multiple years — but the Mets still placed him atop their front office wishlist, only to again be rebuffed by the Brewers. Cohen hired Billy Eppler under the title of “general manager,” not “president of baseball operations,” so it’s technically possible that he could hire Stearns to head up the Mets’ baseball operations staff even with Eppler on board as GM.

One way to more firmly put an end to any pursuits of Stearns from rival clubs would be for Brewers owner Mark Attanasio to sign Stearns to a new extension. It’s now been more than three years since Stearns was promoted from general manager to president and signed to the extension on which he’s currently operating. Perhaps Stearns, who’ll turn 37 later this week, is intrigued by the possibility of fielding interest from other clubs and wouldn’t want to explore a new contract at this time, but there’s nothing stopping the Brewers from discussing a Stearns extension during the lockout, should they choose.

Poll: Who Will Play First Base In The Bronx?

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Following the 2020 season, first base didn’t look like it’d be an area of concern for the Yankees for the next few years. Luke Voit led the Majors with 22 home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, turning in a stout .277/.338/.610 batting line that was 53 percent better than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. A series of injuries derailed much of Voit’s 2021 season, however, prompting the Yanks to trade for Anthony Rizzo at the deadline.

Fast forward several months, and Rizzo is a free agent, Voit is a possible trade candidate, and the Yankees have been linked to big-fish names like Oakland’s Matt Olson and even free agent Freddie Freeman, who has yet to put pen to paper on a new deal in Atlanta. Everyone’s wondering who’ll play shortstop at Yankee Stadium in 2022, but first base is a question mark in its own right, so let’s take a quick look at each of the most plausible possibilities.

Luke Voit: There’s certainly an argument for sticking with the status quo and giving Voit another go-around. Last year was blown up by a torn meniscus that required surgery, an oblique strain that wiped out another month, and then continued knee troubles in the season’s second half. Voit, who turned 31 just yesterday, managed just eight more plate appearances in 2021 than he did in the 60-game 2020 sprint.

When he was healthy, Voit was a solid hitter, slashing .239/.328/.437 (111 wRC+) with 11 long balls, seven doubles and a triple in 241 trips to the dish. However, he also saw his strikeout rate spike to a career-worst 30.7% as he struggled through those injuries, and that batting line is a far cry from his aforementioned dominance in 2020.

In the three seasons leading up to 2021, Voit batted a combined .278/.371/.541 with 58 home runs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 26.4% strikeout rate in 905 plate appearances. He grades out as a poor defender at first base, but it’s easier to overlook the glovework if he’s hitting like he did from 2018-20. If he’s hitting like he did in 2021, that defense becomes harder to hide. Voit is controlled three more seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.4MM in 2022. He’s affordable and has plenty of upside with the bat — but there are red flags to consider as well. For his part, Voit told Dan Martin of the New York Post that he loves playing in New York and hopes to remain. He also acknowledged that a trade is possible.

DJ LeMahieu: The 33-year-old thrived with the 2019-20 Yankees, playing all over the infield and turning in a combined .336/.386/.536 showing with a tiny 12.7% strikeout rate. However, with a .268/.349/.362 batting line in 2021 (100 wRC+), LeMahieu had his own downturn at the plate this past season.

If LeMahieu were still hitting at his 2019-20 levels, that’d be more than enough offense even if he moved to first base on a full-time basis. If he’s “only” an average or slightly above-average hitter moving forward, then his versatility and ability to play other positions becomes more important.

The Yankees could still give LeMahieu the bulk of the work at first base in 2022, though it doesn’t seem like it’d be a top choice. It’s hard to see them doing so with Voit still on the roster, meaning they’d likely need to move Voit and spend the bulk of whatever resources they have remaining on other needs (shortstop, pitching, etc.).

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo had a big start in New York, but by the time the season had run its course, his overall offensive production as a Yankee looked pretty similar to Voit’s 2021 output: .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+). Rizzo was an offensive force with the Cubs from 2014-19, batting a collective .284/.388/.513 in that time and topping 30 home runs in four different seasons. He’s since settled in as more of a 20 to 25-homer threat who makes good contact (15.1% strikeout rate) and draws some walks but is no longer an MVP-caliber hitter.

Two points in Rizzo’s favor over Voit: he’d give the Yankees a left-handed bat to help further balance a lineup that skews heavily toward right-handed hitters, and he’s also generally considered to be a strong defender. Defensive metrics were down on Rizzo in 2021, but he still graded out better than Voit typically has. That’s also the only time in his career he’s ever drawn negative marks for his glovework at first base.

Rizzo would be a costlier option, even though his stock has dropped from the point at which the Cubs were offering him extensions to keep him beyond 2021. MLBTR predicted a three-year deal at a rate of $15MM per season heading into the offseason, and even that was in part due to some of the narrative building up Rizzo as a difference-making clubhouse presence and leader. Post-lockout, an even shorter deal can’t be completely ruled out. He’ll still cost quite a bit more than Voit, but he won’t break the bank relative to, say…

Freddie Freeman: Braves fans and pundits alike are still a bit surprised things have gotten to this point with Freeman, the homegrown Braves icon whom most onlookers considered a slam dunk to spend his entire career in Atlanta. It’s still wholly plausible that after a protracted set of contract negotiations, Freeman returns to anchor the lineup at Truist Park, settling in as a lifelong Brave. At the same time, there have been reports that the Yankees, Dodgers and perhaps the Blue Jays could at least try to pry Freeman from Atlanta by offering the lengthier deal and/or weightier annual salary he’s thought to seek.

Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, shook off some early-season doldrums in 2021 and finished out the year with a pretty typical (for him) .300/.393/.503 slash through 695 plate appearances. These endpoints are completely arbitrary, so take them with a grain of salt, but on May 7, Freeman finished the day with a .195/.326/.407 slash. From that point forth he hit .324/.409/.526.

Freeman will turn 33 in September, so the always-prominent concerns about paying for a player’s decline phase exist here as well. It might take six years and an annual salary in the $30MM range to sign him (or at least a salary well north of $30MM on a five-year term). The Yankees obviously have the resources to do that — particularly if they take an affordable approach at shortstop, as has been rumored — but there’s plenty of long-term risk.

Matt Olson: Perhaps the most-speculated trade match of the entire offseason, Olson-to-the-Bronx makes a good deal of sense. He’s an elite fielding left-handed bat who broke out as one of the game’s most well-rounded offensive players in 2021. Always a 30-homer threat — he swatted 29 homers in 2018 and 36 in 2019 — Olson slashed his strikeout rate from 26.3% all the way to 16.8% this past season. He did so while maintaining a walk rate north of 13%, and the resulting .271/.371/.540 slash and 39 home runs were career-best marks.

The A’s control Olson through 2023, but he’s projected to earn $12MM in arbitration (via Swartz) at a time when the A’s are reportedly aiming to reduce payroll. He’d give the Yankees a clear upgrade for at least two years, coming with an affordable (for them) salary in both seasons. It’s always possible that the Yankees could look into a long-term deal in the aftermath of a trade, too.

That said, Olson’s going to come with one of the heftiest asking prices of any player on the trade market. Yankees fans are surely loath to even consider the possibility of including a headliner such as top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe, but any trade scenario involving Olson is probably going to come at a prospect cost that upsets many fans. Olson will (or at least certainly should) command multiple players from the top echelon of any team’s farm system.

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Those are just a few possibilities for the Yankees, but they seem to be the most plausible paths for GM Brian Cashman and his staff to tread. After Freeman and Rizzo, the free-agent market doesn’t offer a clear everyday option at first base who’d be an upgrade over Voit and LeMahieu. There are other speculative trade candidates to consider (e.g. Dominic Smith, Josh Bell), but none who promise the impact and clear upgrade that Olson would bring to the fold.

Let’s open this up for readers to discuss and to take their best guess (link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users) …

Trade Candidate: Randal Grichuk

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Just over one year ago, the Toronto Blue Jays signed George Springer to a six-year, $150MM contract, the largest deal in franchise history. After that signing, it was speculated by many that a trade could follow, given that they already had three other capable outfielders in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk. Instead, they ended up hanging onto all four players, which may have been the wise choice, as Springer spent significant time on the IL, appearing in just 78 games and only playing center field in 40 of those.

In his absence, center field was largely manned by Grichuk, who spent parts of 96 games there, including 87 starts. Unfortunately, he had arguably the worst season of his career. He’s never been an on-base guy, with a 6.3% walk rate back in 2015 marking his career high. But he slipped even lower in 2021, landing at 5.0%, his lowest since his debut season in 2014. On the positive side, he dropped his strikeout rate to 20.9%, a career best. He also still showed some power by hitting 22 home runs. His center field defense was passable, being rated as just below average by all three of DRS, UZR and OAA. But in the end, his line for the season was .241/.281/.423. His wRC+ of 85 was five points lower than his previous career low, and his 0.4 fWAR was his lowest since his 47-game debut in 2014.

Back in early December, it was reported that the Blue Jays and Brewers had discussions on a trade centered around Grichuk and Jackie Bradley Jr.,  before the Brewers and Red Sox agreed to a deal with a framework of Bradley and Hunter Renfroe. This suggests the Jays have at least some openness to moving on from the two years and $20.67MM remaining on the extension they inked with Grichuk in April of 2019.

Trading Grichuk now is awkward for a couple reasons, even beyond the lockout. His value is surely at a low ebb, given the disappointing season he just had in 2021. There’s also the fact that the club would be lacking in outfield depth without him. Outside of the aforementioned group of Springer, Gurriel and Hernandez, the only other regular outfielder on the 40-man roster is Josh Palacios, who also missed significant time with injury last year and has only played 16 career Triple-A games and 13 MLB games. Cavan Biggio has seen a bit of time in the outfield, but he’s still pencilled in for significant infield time at the moment. He also dealt with injuries last year, appearing in just 79 games. However, the team could also add some outfield depth after a Grichuk trade, perhaps by bringing back Corey Dickerson, who recently spoke highly of his time with the Jays last year.

One thing that could potentially work in the Jays’ favour is the lack of available free agent center fielders, with the best remaining options being bench/platoon types like Brett Gardner or Kevin Pillar. Grichuk’s poor 2021 notwithstanding, center fielders who play cromulent defense and reliably hit 20-plus home runs per season don’t grow on trees. Teams with designs on competing and questions in center field could perhaps take a chance on him, especially considering he isn’t likely to demand much of a return. The Phillies need help in the outfield and elsewhere, but likely don’t have a ton of money or young talent to trade. The Rockies have designs on competing and need outfield upgrades, having been connected to Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber this offseason. If they fail to lure in one of those high profile options, they’ll have to consider alternatives. The Marlins are known to be looking for center field help and don’t usually throw around big bucks in free agency, making them theoretical suitors for a lower-cost option like Grichuk.

Given Grichuk’s contract and mediocre 2021 season, it’s unlikely the Jays are able to line up a trade during what will surely be a frenzy of transactions between the theoretical end of the lockout and the beginning of the season. However, if they can, it would free up some payroll space for them to upgrade their infield and pitching staff, as they look to build off a 91-win campaign in 2021.

Could The Guardians Be A Dark Horse For Matt Olson?

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Since the beginning of the offseason, it has seemed like a fire sale is imminent for the Athletics. One of the most obvious candidates to be dealt as part of any cost-cutting moves has been Matt Olson. Indeed, he was the first name mentioned in MLBTR’s recent list of likely post-lockout trade candidates. Over the past few months, there has been reported interest from the Rangers, Yankees and Braves, but could the Guardians be a surprise entrant into the Olson sweepstakes?

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer looked into this possibility in a recent mailbag. In response to a reader who heard the club could be interested in the first baseman, Hoynes responded by saying, “It makes sense, but that doesn’t make it true.”

Olson’s bat would indeed make a lot of sense for the Guardians, given their meager offensive production in 2021. As a team, they hit .238/.303/.407 last year, producing a wRC+ 93, seven percentage points below league average. Olson, meanwhile, had the best season of his career thus far, hitting .271/.371/.540 for a wRC+ of 146. MLBTR projects him to earn $12MM in arbitration this year, a salary that even a low-budget team like the Guardians could afford. Their 2022 payroll is projected below $50MM at the moment, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, leaving plenty of room for a salary in that range.

Olson would be a clear upgrade over Bobby Bradley, Cleveland’s current first baseman. The 25-year-old hit 16 home runs last year but struck out in 35.5% of his plate appearances. In the end, he produced a line of .208/.294/.445, putting him just a hair below league average, wRC+ of 99. Bradley has less than one year of MLB service time, meaning he has six years of club control remaining. Given his youth and years of control, he could appeal to an Oakland team that is looking to cut salary. The Athletics have frequently targeted MLB-ready players when making these types of deals in the past, making a Bradley-Olson framework a logical start to a deal.

Hoynes suggests just such a framework as the backbone of a trade, but with the Guardians also throwing in a middle infielder and starting pitcher to balance it out. Cleveland has an abundance of middle infielders on the 40-man roster, making it easy to see them subtracting from that depth. At the moment, Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez are likely to fill out the infield along with Bradley. But the roster also features Yu Chang, Owen Miller, Ernie Clement, Richie Palacios, Brayan Rocchio, Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias and Jose Tena as players with some middle infield capabilities on the 40-man.

The same is true of the team’s starting depth, as the roster currently has Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Sam Hentges, Logan Allen, Eli Morgan, Cody Morris, Tobias Myers and Konnor Pilkington as potentials for the rotation. It’s feasible the club could view this as a surplus they could use as part of a trade, but given how injuries in the rotation largely torpedoed their chances in 2021, they might be inclined to hang onto all of these arms for now.

Despite the lack of offense and multiple pitcher injuries in 2021, Cleveland still managed to finish with a record of 80-82. With some better health in the rotation and the addition of an impact bat such as Olson’s, they could get back into contention this year, especially if the new CBA results in expanded playoffs.

Calvin Jones Passes Away

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Former Mariners reliever Calvin Jones has passed away from cancer, as relayed by Bob Nightengale of USA Today on Twitter. He was 58 years old.

Jones was taken by the Mariners with the first overall selection in the 1984 January draft. (At the time, there was a second entry draft in January, largely for those who had graduated in the winter.) After initially working primarily as a starter in the minors, he made more appearances out of the bullpen as he climbed the minor league ladder. He made his MLB debut in 1991, throwing 46 1/3 innings over 27 relief appearances with the Mariners. He put up an ERA of 2.53 and recorded a couple of saves. In 1992, he logged 61 2/3 innings over 38 games with an ERA of 5.69. Although that was his the end of his time pitching in the majors, he continued playing for another decade, spending time in the minors, the CPBL, the Mexican League and The Atlantic League. He finished his MLB career with an ERA of 4.33 and 91 strikeouts over 108 innings in 65 games.

After his playing days were done, Jones worked as a scout for the Dodgers. This 2016 story from Scott Miller and Bleacher Report highlights how Jones was fundamental to the Dodgers making the franchise-altering decision to select Clayton Kershaw with the seventh overall pick in the 2006 draft.

We at MLB Trade Rumors pass on our condolences to the Jones family, and Calvin’s many friends and fans.

Player Valuation Trends Remain At Issue In CBA Negotiations

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As the lockout draws on, time has proved insufficient in healing the conflicts surrounding the current collective bargaining agreement negotiations. The latest reports suggest that the league owners and MLBPA are no closer to finding middle ground on most issues. The most recent concessions were catalogued here by MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald. Today’s analysis, however, comes from thescore.com’s Travis Sawchik, who provides valuable context for a number of trends that have been at issue during these negotiations.

Sawchik tackles the current imbalance between production and pay, the changing demographics of the player populous, and the role that analytics has played in shaping the game’s financial landscape. I urge you to read Sawchik’s full analysis, but below are a couple of passages from Sawchik’s article that frame the current debate.

For starters, player careers have declined. Sawchik writes, “The average service time of MLB players was 4.79 years in 2003 and fell to 3.71 years in 2019, according to MLBPA data from last year.” It’s no coincidence that players become eligible for their first arbitration raise after three years of service time.

Careers are closing in on players from both sides. Sawchik provides the following data: “…the share of position players aged 30-plus declined from 40.4% of all hitters in 2004 to 29.9% this past season. Of all players to step on an MLB field in 2019, 63.2% had less than three years of service time. Careers are also starting later. The average debut age of 25.6 years this season was up from 2011 (24.6 years) and 2001 (24.5), according to Baseball Reference.”

Not only are there less players in their thirties than in the past, but younger players are debuting at older ages than usual. What this amounts to is owners taking advantages of players’ few prime years between the ages 25 and 30, thereby avoiding the growing pains of youth and at the same time forestalling free agency until players are on the tail end of their athletic peaks. Excepting where those superstar players are concerned, teams can then feel comfortable replacing those players with the next wave of cheap, young players entering their primes.

Advanced analytics has made it so that teams have a better understanding of the advantages that this system provides them. Meanwhile, player care has improved and the field of biomechanics has taken on an increased role, only deepening the information available to owners and front offices.

What makes this situation so very complex is that as individual players use these advancements for the benefit of their own careers, the aggregate only pushes the balance of power further in the direction of ownership. The MLBPA knows not to expect owners to yield their high ground willingly, which is why we are where we are in terms of the lockout.

The entire revaluation of an economic ecosystem as complex as Major League Baseball is hardly a simple matter. There is no reset button, especially when only one side of the conflict sees the current system as broken. Still, for the sport to resume, both sides will have to engage in persistent and significant compromise. In the meantime, we all get a little older.

This Date In Transaction History: Cubs Sign Yu Darvish

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On February 13th, 2018 the Cubs officially announced a six-year, $126MM agreement with free agent Yu Darvish. After splitting the 2017 season between the Rangers and Dodgers, Darvish was the top free agent on MLBTR’s list of available players that winter. Little did we know at the time that Darvish would spent only half the length of that contract in a Cubs uniform.

At the time, Darvish seemed like a much-needed injection of frontline rotation talent for the Cubs. After falling to the Dodgers in the NLCS in their title defense season, swiping Darvish from the Dodgers had the potential to swing a potential rematch in seasons to come.

That rematch wouldn’t come to pass, however. Darvish would make just nine starts for the Cubs in the 2018 season. Though they won 95 games, Joe Maddon’s club stumbled into a wild card spot before losing the wild card game to the Rockies on a Tony Wolters RBI single in the 13th inning.

The timing was never quite right for Darvish and the Cubs. He was better in his second season in Chicago, but not good enough to change the fortunes of their fledgling contender. Darvish finished second for the NL Cy Young during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but they fell in the first round of the playoffs to the Marlins.

Though Darvish was incredible during that 2020 season (2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP over 76 innings), the Cubs chose to sell high on their one-time free agent prize, sending him to the Padres for a quartet of teenagers. The Cubs were largely criticized at the time of the deal, though the full impact of the move won’t be known for many years yet. There’s no doubt that Chicago needed an injection of youth for a system that had largely stagnated during their years of contention. Further, in terms of maximizing their assets, Darvish was their most valuable trade piece at the time.

And though Darvish’s arsenal is robust, and he’s among the strikeout leaders on a per batter basis year-by-year, his bottom line run prevention numbers don’t necessarily paint him as one of the best pitchers in the league.

He was certainly a touch disappointing in his first season with the Padres, posting just 1.4 rWAR/2.9 fWAR despite making 30 starts and tossing 166 1/3 innings. The 34-year-old wasn’t bad in 2021, but with a 4.22 ERA/3.90 FIP, Darvish looks more like a solid mid-rotation arm than a true frontline ace, even with an impressive 29.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.5 percent walk rate.

The fact is, outside of his tremendous 2020 season, Darvish has been closer to this 2021 self for most of his Major League career – at least since missing the 2015 season. Still, that makes for a valuable rotation arm that ought to play a valuable role for the Padres over the next two seasons, even in his age-35 and age-36 seasons.

At the same time, it’s hard to fault the Cubs now for selling when they did. MLBTR readers did not like the deal, with the most popular grades being a C and D at the time. But in retrospect, the Cubs were clearly more than a Darvish away from competing last season.

On the whole, even though they traded him halfway through the deal, the Cubs probably still feel pretty good about their decision to sign Darvish. On the field, he gave them 294 2/3 innings over three seasons with a 3.60 ERA/3.77 FIP, totaling 5.8 fWAR. Those aggregate numbers are solid, though they came in the shape of one subpar season, one stellar season, and one middle-of-the-road year in 2019.

Taking a more holistic approach, you can give Darvish credit for also netting the organization four prospects who may still provide a boost to Cubs teams down the road. As of right now, Fangraphs has the four prospects the Cubs got for Darvish ranked as their #3, #5, #37, and #48 ranked prospects in their system. Will those four prospects end up being more valuable than the final three years of Darvish’s free agent deal? That’s a question for a future date. In terms of the free agent deal that was signed four years ago today, the move didn’t turn out exactly the way the Cubs perhaps wanted, but they should count it as a win nonetheless.

Nationals Add Pair Of Analysts To Front Office

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The Nationals have added a pair of analysts to their front office. Washington needs the influx of talent, as their analyst group has been greatly diminished since their championship run in 2019. Carmen Ciardiello and Lee Przybylski are the latest new hires to join research and development, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter).

Earlier this winter, the Nats added former players Bill Mueller and Coco Crisp to their on-field player development teams. They also added Jon Weil as a special assistant to help in the scouting department.

The Nationals have typically been content with a smaller-than-normal front office group. These additions, however, amount to a refilling of the coffers more than an expansion. Dougherty covered the Nats’ front office situation in a full piece last December.

MLBPA “Unimpressed” By MLB’s Latest Offer In CBA Negotiations

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In a meeting this afternoon, Major League Baseball presented its latest offer to the Players’ Association as part of the ongoing collective bargaining negotiations. The meeting lasted less than an hour, according to Joon Lee of ESPN, with the players coming away “unimpressed” — a word used by Lee, Tim Healey of Newsday and Bob Nightengale of USA Today. On the other hand, Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe reports that the league is “underwhelmed by underwhelmed MLBPA.”

Some of the details of MLB’s 130-page proposal are shared by The Athletic’s Evan Drellich and ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.  There was very slight movement on the bonus pool issue, something that had come up in previous bargaining sessions. The league had previously agreed to the MLBPA proposal for a bonus pool, funded by central revenues, to reward pre-arbitration players. Despite agreeing on the proposal, the league and the union have remained far apart on the size. The players initially proposed a total of $105MM, with the league countering by offering $10MM. The players later dropped their ask to $100MM, with the owners today increasing their offer to $15MM.

There was also slight modification to MLB’s proposal regarding the Competitive Balance Tax thresholds. Previously, the plan was to have a limit of $214MM for 2022 through 2024, increasing to $216MM in 2025 and $220MM in 2026. Today’s proposal retained that $214MM number for 2022 and 2023, bumped to $216MM in 2024, and then $218MM and $222MM in the final two years of the deal. The players, on the other hand, have been looking for the threshold to be in the $245MM-260MM range for the five years covered by the deal.

The proposed tax rates for surpassing these thresholds hasn’t changed since MLB’s last proposal, although the draft pick compensation was slightly modified. Under the previous proposal, teams surpassing the first threshold (spending less than $234MM on a proposed $214MM tax threshold) would have to surrender a third round draft pick, though that was dropped to no draft penalty for today’s offer. However, teams would still be paying the same 50 percent tax on every dollar spent within that $214-$234MM area.

As for the league minimum salary, the league made two proposals, one of them involving a flat amount of $630K for all pre-arbitration players. The second proposal involved a tiered system, with players making $615K until they reach one year of service time, $650K for between one and two years’ service time and $725K for those between two and three years’ service time. This is only a slight modification of the previous proposal, in which the tiers were $615K, $650K and $700K, meaning the last tier was the only one to change.

Another proposed change was in relation to MLB’s previous proposal for dealing with service time manipulation. Under the previous proposal, top-100 ranked prospects that were selected to a team’s Opening Day roster could net their team an extra draft pick by finishing in the top five in voting for a major award (the MVP, Cy Young, or Rookie Of The Year) during one of his arbitration-eligible seasons. Under the league’s latest proposal, a team can receive two picks if the player finishes in the top three of voting for multiple major awards. Rogers uses the example of Kris Bryant, as if the Cubs had kept Bryant on their roster for their entirety of the 2015 and 2016 seasons, Chicago would have earned two bonus picks for Bryant’s awards success (the 2015 ROY, the 2016 NL MVP).

In some smaller proposed changes, MLB also proposed a limit on how many times a player could be optioned each year at five. There is currently no limit on how many times a player with options could be shuttled between the majors and the minors, and teams have increasingly taken advantage of this non-rule by constantly moving pitchers back and forth from Triple-A to always ensure fresh relievers are available for in-game maneuvers.

While a five-option cap would still allow teams quite a bit of flexibility for promotions and demotions, it would at least cut down on extreme situations, like how the Rays recalled and demoted right-hander Louis Head 12 times last season. MLB’s proposal for a five-option cap comes with some as yet unknown strings attached, Drellich tweets, which concerns the MLBPA. The union is in favor of a limit to the number of options in general, but their proposal would cap the number of moves at four.

In regards to the amateur draft, the league’s new proposal would reintroduce the “draft and follow” concept, where teams could draft a player and send them to junior college for a year before signing them. In addition, prospects who submit to a pre-draft physical would be guaranteed 75% of their slot value and cannot be “failed” by the physical. This is seemingly in response to Kumar Rocker, who was drafted by the Mets with the 10th overall pick last year, but the two sides didn’t reach a deal since the Mets were concerned by an elbow issue that arose in a post-draft physical. Bob Nightengale adds that the proposal includes an extra $23MM for bonuses given to drafted players and international signings.

If one wants to be optimistic about all of this, it can be said that progress was made and that the league made clear which items it considers negotiable and which it won’t budge on, thus laying the groundwork for the players to come back with their next counter. On the pessimistic side of things, the two sides remain far apart, and the league’s proposed changes in this latest offer are very modest, especially considering the ticking clock that is the scheduled start of Spring Training. Prior to the lockout, pitchers and catchers were scheduled to report this week and games were set to begin on February 26, and the possibility of a deal coming together before then is difficult to fathom.

This inevitably leads to the question of whether or not the regular season will begin as scheduled. It’s often been speculated that a deal would need to be in place by around March 1, in order for teams to have one month to conduct their remaining offseason business and for the players to have a proper Spring Training in advance of Opening Day on March 31. In relation to all this, Drellich reports that the MLB today presented the MLBPA with a calendar outlining when a deal would need to be in place in order to avoid such delays or cancellations. The exact specifications of this calendar aren’t known, though as Drellich notes, it’s unclear if the players would agree with this outlay from the league. As for next steps, Nightengale said that the MLBPA “is expected to submit counter proposals within a week.”

Rays Reportedly Open To Trading Austin Meadows

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Kevin Kiermaier may be among the most obvious possible trade chips in the sport, though he isn’t the only Rays outfielder that may be available.  According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Kiermaier and Austin Meadows are the “most likely to go in a trade” and Manuel Margot could “maybe” also be floated to other teams.

Since the Rays roster is in constant flux, it isn’t surprising that the club is at least open to discussing anyone short of Wander Franco.  We examined Margot as a potential trade candidate last week, citing his appeal to other teams as a similar glove-first type of player to Kiermaier, except younger, less expensive, and with a less-checkered injury history.  Meadows bring a different skillset to the table, plus more long-term control since he is controlled through the 2024 season via salary arbitration.

Meadows hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 home runs over 591 plate appearances in 2021, bouncing back from a rough 2020 season that saw him post only a .667 OPS over 152 PA.  That 2020 campaign was hampered by both a case of COVID-19 during Summer Camp and then an oblique strain in late September, though Meadows was able to return for much of the Rays’ postseason run.

Despite the rebound year, however, Meadows’ 2021 numbers weren’t without some concerns.  Quite a bit of his production was contained within a red-hot stretch from May 2 to June 6 that saw Meadows hit .275/.365/.625 with 10 home runs.  In the 345 PA after that hot streak, however, Meadows was only a .224/.290/.406 hitter.  The left-handed hitting Meadows had posted pretty good numbers against lefties over his career, but his 2021 splits saw him deliver just a .563 OPS in 189 PA against southpaws (as opposed to an .871 OPS in 351 PA against right-handed pitching).

Defensive shifts played a big part in these splits, as teams shifted 75% of the time against Meadows in 2021, a marked increase from the previous two seasons.  The result was a .304 wOBA against the shift (with a .402 wOBA in normal defensive alignments).  Meadows also made much less hard contact in 2021 than he did in the previous two seasons, with a 37.9% hard-hit ball rate that put him in only the 32nd percentile of all batters.

Meadows has been mostly utilized as a left fielder over the last two seasons, with mixed results depending on your metric of choice.  Defensive Runs Saved (+2) and UZR/150 (+4.2) give him positive grades, while Outs Above Average puts Meadows at only a -1 for his 799 2/3 innings in left field.  While not bad defensive numbers by any stretch, the Rays still gave Meadows a lot of DH time before Nelson Cruz was acquired prior to the trade deadline.

Dealing Meadows would be a very intriguing move for a Tampa Bay club that is no stranger to aggressive trades, even of players who seemed like building blocks in the recent past.  It can be argued that Meadows still is or should be a building block, considering the power he brings to the table, his former top-prospect status with the Pirates, and his three years of team control.

The increasing price tag of those arbitration years, however, might also factor against Meadows’ longer-term future in Tampa.  MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Meadows to earn $4.3MM in his first arb-eligible year, and barring any changes to the arbitration structure in the next CBA, traditional counting stats like home runs and RBIs may continue to play an outsized role in determining a player’s future salary.  If the Rays feel they can get a more productive overall player into the mix now, they could opt to deal Meadows while he may still be able to command something close to a premium return.

With some more established veteran outfield bats available in free agency, Meadows stands an interesting alternative for teams that might not be willing to pay big money to sign a Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, or Michael Conforto.  Meadows’ three years of control would put a different type of high price tag on his services, though an enterprising team could tempt the Rays with any number of offers.  Whatever the move, Topkin figures a larger-profile trade is likelier to come closer to the start of Spring Training if the Rays can help it, since the team would like to avoid “the disruption” involved with trading an established member of the roster later in camp.

Outfield prospect Josh Lowe is ready for a larger role in 2022, able to step into the Rays’ outfield mix in the event that any of Meadows, Kiermaier, or Margot is traded.  Replacing a left fielder is easier than replacing a premium defensive glove like Kiermaier or Margot, so Tampa Bay could also look elsewhere if it isn’t satisfied with an outfield mix of Randy Arozarena, Brett Phillips, Kiermaier, Margot, and Vidal Brujan.  Topkin also reiterates that the Rays are hoping to find a right-handed hitter who can play first base, and if such player is also outfield-capable, that would only help the depth chart.

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