Archives for January 2022

The Many Paths Ahead Of Andrew Benintendi

By Darragh McDonald | January 12, 2022 at 10:42pm CDT

2018 was a tremendous season for Andrew Benintendi. The outfielder hit 16 home runs, stole 21 bases and slashed .290/.366/.465. His walk rate and strikeout rate were both better than league average, coming in at 10.7% and 16%, respectively. His wRC+ was 123 and he was worth 4.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. He was part of an utterly dominant Red Sox team that went 108-54 in the regular season and then cruised to a World Series title by going 11-3 in the postseason. To top it all off, that was just his age-23 season, suggesting that there was still time for him to soar to even greater heights.

Unfortunately, things have gone in the opposite direction since then, with his numbers slipping slightly from the heights of 2018. The following year, he hit 13 homers, stole 10 bases and slashed .266/.343/.431, for a wRC+ of 100 and 2.0 fWAR. The pandemic-shortened 2020 season was especially short for Benintendi, as a ribcage strain limited him to just 14 games. After a trade to the Royals, his 2021 season saw him bounce back to roughly his 2019 level of production. He hit 17 dingers, stole 8 bags and hit .276/.324/.442 for a wRC+ of 106 and 2.1 fWAR. That means that Benintendi has now played four full seasons, with three of them being solid campaigns of either 2.0 or 2.1 fWAR, as he also produced 2.0 fWAR in 2017.

Now Benintendi is entering his final year before reaching free agency, assuming the new CBA doesn’t drastically alter the previous service time structure. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected he’ll earn a salary of $9.3MM via arbitration. He’ll be playing for a Royals team with an uncertain short-term outlook, as their attempt to emerge out of rebuilding in 2021 came up short. They went 74-88, finishing 19 games behind the White Sox in the Central and just one game ahead of the basement-dwelling Twins. It was a relatively quiet pre-lockout offseason for them, as their biggest move so far was signing Taylor Clarke to a deal for less than $1MM. They should be able to improve by virtue of their young players continuing to develop, but it’s unclear how aggressive they will be in what could be Benintendi’s final year with the team. That leaves a wide variety of potential outcomes for him in the coming year.

If the Royals want Benintendi to stick around as they open a new competitive window, they could always offer him an extension, as they did with Michael A. Taylor in September. Taylor was headed into free agency in about a month, but agreed to a two-year extension that will keep him in KC through 2023. However, Benintendi will likely require a lengthier commitment than that, given that he is more than three years younger than Taylor and comes with a higher ceiling.

Benintendi is currently slated to reach free agency as a 28-year-old, similar to Kyle Schwarber, who was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $70MM over four years. They don’t produce in the same way, as Schwarber typically hits more but without much defensive contribution. However, they are still fairly analogous in terms of overall production. Over the past five years, Schwarber’s 10.8 fWAR in 593 games just barely eclipses Benintendi’s 10.1 fWAR in 585 games.

It would be something of a surprise for the Royals to give out an extension in that ballpark to Benintendi, as it would be fairly close to the four-year, $82MM extension they gave to Salvador Perez a year ago. Having close to $40MM committed to just two players would be a risky maneuver for a team that’s only rarely run a payroll over $100MM.

There’s also the possibility that Benintendi’s job in the outfield gets filled internally in the next year. The club currently has an infield mix that includes Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana and Hunter Dozier, with prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto likely to debut in 2022. That crowded mix could lead to Merrifield and Dozier getting pushed to the outfield, alongside Taylor, Kyle Isbel and Edward Olivares. Considering all those options, perhaps they’d think it best to spend their money elsewhere.

With just one year of club control remaining, Benintendi will be a logical trade candidate if the Royals struggle to compete again in 2022. With the aforementioned glut of position players, the outfield could be covered by Taylor, Isbel, Merrifield, Dozier and Olivares after his departure. If Benintendi is having another season similar to what he did in 2017, 2019 and 2021, he should garner plenty of interest at the deadline, especially given that his affordable salary will be even less onerous by midseason. If he can go a notch higher and start to resemble his 2018 production, even better.

There’s also the chance that the Royals are able to take a step forward and get into the postseason mix, especially considering that the new CBA is expected to include an expanded postseason. A player like Benintendi could certainly be useful in a postseason chase, especially given his experience. If he were to stick on the Royals roster until the end of 2022 season, there’s a chance he could be a candidate for a qualifying offer, depending on how his season went. A one-year contract around $19MM or so could perhaps be a bit high for a 2-win player, but Benintendi has shown he is capable of more. Considering he will be hitting free agency at a young age, he would likely be inclined to turn down the QO and try to secure himself a long-term deal. Of course, that’s dependent on a healthy and productive season in 2022.

However, there is also the great unknown of the next CBA. There’s a chance that the qualifying offer system is scrapped or somehow altered in a way that would change all of these calculations for Benintendi and the Royals. There’s also the chance that Benintendi’s free agency trajectory is altered by the new CBA. It was reported back in August that one of the proposals made by MLB involved altering the free agency rules to be based on age instead of service time. Under this proposed structure, players would reach free agency at age 29 1/2, as opposed to the previous system of accruing six years of service time. Benintendi was born July 6th, 1994, meaning he wouldn’t reach 29 1/2 years of age until 2024. (July 1st was proposed as the cutoff date, meaning Benintendi would just miss.) The MLBPA reportedly wanted nothing to do with this proposal, but the course of the negotiations is difficult to predict at the moment. In a prolonged standoff, resolution will likely require a bit of compromise on both sides. It’s impossible to know which items will wind up back on the table as part of a larger deal.

There are a great many unknowns for baseball in 2022. We don’t know when the lockout will end, if a full season will be played or what the rules will be. For Benintendi and the Royals, there are even more questions remaining to be answered.

Braves, Jackson Stephens Agree To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | January 12, 2022 at 8:52pm CDT

The Braves have signed right-handed pitcher Jackson Stephens to a minor league deal, according to Alfonso E. Saer Gomez and David O’Brien of The Athletic. (Twitter links.) As noted by both tweets, the 27-year-old was recently awarded Pitcher of the Year in the Venezuelan Winter League.

Stephens was selected by the Reds in the 18th round of the 2012 draft. Working primarily as a starter, he worked his way up the minor league ranks and was able to make his MLB debut in 2017, throwing 25 innings over four starts and three relief appearances. In 2018, he made 29 more appearances, all out of the bullpen, throwing 38 1/3 innings. He hasn’t been able to crack the big leagues since, making his 63 1/3 innings over those two campaigns the total of his big league experience thus far. He has a career ERA of 4.83, strikeout rate of 19% and walk rate of 8.5%.

In 2019, he logged 84 innings in Triple-A and then elected free agency after he was outrighted off the roster at the end of the year. After missing out on 2020, he spent 2021 with Tecolotes de los Dos Laredos of the Mexican League. He logged 65 innings there, with an ERA of 4.98. Shortly thereafter, he joined Cardenales de Lara and had perhaps his best run of success to date. In 49 1/3 innings over 14 games, including nine starts, he struck out 44 hitters, walking only 10, putting up an ERA of 1.82. As mentioned, he was awarded the league’s Pitcher of the Year honors.

Stephens doesn’t have much on his track record that can match that recent showing in Venezuela, either in the majors or the upper minors. However, he’s only 27 years old, turning 28 in May. For the Braves, there’s no harm in bringing him aboard and seeing if that recent uptick in his performance is due to some sort of adjustment that could be sustainable.

Comparing Each Team’s Current Payroll To Previous Spending

By Darragh McDonald | January 12, 2022 at 7:01pm CDT

The MLB and MLBPA will be returning to the bargaining table tomorrow, in order to hopefully begin the process of thawing the MLB landscape, which has remained quite frosty for over a month now. While this is surely welcome news for the baseball world, it doesn’t seem like the end of the lockout is imminent. At this point, with the scheduled start of spring training about a month away, there’s no avoiding a scenario with a quick turnaround between the conclusion of the lockout and the resumption of baseball activities. It’s been deduced by many that this will surely lead to a period of frenzied hot stove activity, as there are still a great number of free agents to be signed, as well as trades to be made, as teams look to set their rosters before the season begins in earnest.

Once that happens, some teams will surely be more active than others, depending on their respective circumstances. Front office members are typically cagy in public about what sort of payroll parameters they are working within, for sensible reasons. When negotiating with a player’s agent, for instance, it’s harder to make it seem as though you have little wiggle room if you’ve publicly boasted about having millions of dollars at your disposal. That makes it impossible for us to know exactly how much money is remaining in each team’s piggy bank, but we can at least make inferences by looking at precedents.

It’s not a guarantee that a team will stick to their previous habits, of course, as we’ve seen with the spending spree from the Mets this year. Some teams may intentionally be taking a step back to rebuild and won’t be spending to previous levels. There’s also the fact that many teams may be waiting to see how the luxury tax tiers are affected by the next CBA. (MLBTR’s Anthony Franco covered that issue in greater detail here.) However, there are some broadly predictable patterns as to which teams are usually big spenders and which are usually low spenders.

Without further ado, here’s a quick shorthand version of where each team is at, comparing their projected 2022 Opening Day payroll to their previous record outlay for Opening Day. The following numbers are actual dollars, not luxury tax calculations. (2022 projections courtesy of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Payrolls from previous years from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

Angels: $10MM under. (Current projected payroll of $172MM, previous high was $182MM in 2021.)
Astros: $18MM under. (Current projected payroll of $170MM, previous high was $188MM in 2021.)
Athletics: $7MM under. (Current projected payroll of $85MM, previous high was $92MM in 2019.)
Blue Jays: $23MM under. (Current projected payroll of $140MM, previous high was $163MM in 2017.)
Braves: $9MM over. (Current projected payroll of $140MM, previous high was $131MM in 2021.)
Brewers: $2MM under. (Current projected payroll of $121MM, previous high was $123MM in 2019.)
Cardinals: $14MM under. (Current projected payroll of $150MM, previous high was $164MM in 2021.)
Cubs: $89MM under. (Current projected payroll of $114MM, previous high was $203MM in 2019.)
Diamondbacks: $46MM under. (Current projected payroll of $86MM, previous high was $132MM in 2018.)
Dodgers: $45MM under. (Current projected payroll of $227MM, previous high was $272MM in 2015.)
Giants: $75MM under. (Current projected payroll of $126MM, previous high was $201MM in 2018.)
Guardians: $86MM under. (Current projected payroll of $49MM, previous high was $135MM in 2018.)
Mariners: $71MM under. (Current projected payroll of $87MM, previous high was $158MM in 2018.)
Marlins: $46MM under. (Current projected payroll of $69MM, previous high was $115MM in 2017.)
Mets: $68MM over. (Current projected payroll of $263MM, previous high was $195MM in 2021.)
Nationals: $79MM under. (Current projected payroll of $118MM, previous high was $197MM in 2019.)
Orioles: $103MM under. (Current projected payroll of $61MM, previous high was $164MM in 2017.)
Padres: $25MM over. (Current projected payroll of $199MM, previous high was $174MM in 2021.)
Phillies: $10MM under. (Current projected payroll of $181MM, previous high was $191MM in 2021.)
Pirates: $61MM under. (Current projected payroll of $39MM, previous high was $100MM in 2016.)
Rangers: $38MM under. (Current projected payroll of $127MM, previous high was $165MM in 2017.)
Rays: $7MM over. (Current projected payroll of $84MM, previous high was $77MM in 2014.)
Red Sox: $45MM under. (Current projected payroll of $191MM, previous high was $236MM in 2019.)
Reds: $12MM under. (Current projected payroll of $115MM, previous high was $127MM in 2019.)
Rockies: $41MM under. (Current projected payroll of $104MM, previous high was $145MM in 2019.)
Royals: $57MM under. (Current projected payroll of $86MM, previous high was $143MM in 2017.)
Tigers: $83MM under. (Current projected payroll of $117MM, previous high was $200MM in 2017.)
Twins: $38MM under. (Current projected payroll of $91MM, previous high was $129MM in 2019.)
White Sox: $51MM over. (Current projected payroll of $180MM, previous high was $129MM in 2021.)
Yankees: $14MM under. (Current projected payroll of $214MM, previous high was $228MM in 2013.)

Oakland A’s Job Openings

By James Hicks | January 12, 2022 at 4:47pm CDT

From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

The Oakland Athletics are currently accepting applications for the following positions. Each is linked to the job description and application for the position.

Major League Video Assistant (Full-Time)

Advance Scouting Intern (In-Season)

Baseball Ops Intern (In-Season)

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor Discusses Rays’ Future

By James Hicks | January 12, 2022 at 4:22pm CDT

In an interview with the Tampa Bay Times, Tampa mayor Jane Castor made clear that she hopes to see the Rays remain in the Tampa area. While she added the caveat that the Tampa region would “continue to grow without a doubt” regardless of the team’s future, reports Charlie Frago, Castor also made the case for the city to hold on to a team that’s been plagued by ballpark issues, low attendance, and limited revenue since its inception as an expansion franchise ahead of the 1998 season.

Tampa is “a large urban city growing each and every day,” she told the paper, “so we should be adding assets to our community rather than them being taken away by other municipalities or countries.” Financier and principal owner Stuart Sternberg floated the idea of moving the team to Montreal — which hasn’t had a major league team since losing the Expos to Washington following the 2004 season — as early as 2014, and in 2019 Major League Baseball gave the club permission to explore the possibility of playing half its home games in Montreal as soon as 2024.

Though a number of new stadium projects have been proposed throughout the years — most notably at the current site of Al Lang Stadium on the St. Petersburg waterfront and in the northeast Tampa neighborhood of Ybor City — none has garnered the necessary political support. An October report by Frago and C.T. Bowen in the Tampa Bay Times suggested the club had revived its attempts to build a new ballpark in Ybor City, though such a project wouldn’t necessarily rule out the club’s split-city plans; a January 8th open letter, signed by several dozen Tampa businesspeople and published in the Tampa Bay Times, expressed support for both a new stadium in Ybor City (which it calls “an economic development platform”) and the ’sister city’ concept.

Though Castor refers to the letter as “a step in the right direction,” she declined to commit any public money to the project, stating that as much as she hopes to keep the team in the Tampa area, “the community’s appetite to pay for a stadium has left the train station.” Though she continued to rule out using any of the city’s general fund money, she did suggest her office would explore alternate funding methods. According to Frago, the proposed stadium would cost approximately $700MM, of which the Rays have promised to pay $350MM.

Tropicana Field, which the franchise has called home for the entirety of its existence, was initially built in an attempt to lure the White Sox from Chicago should the team fail to secure a suitable replacement for the increasingly dilapidated Comiskey Park or to secure one of two 1993 expansion franchises (which were eventually awarded to Denver and Miami); a team of Tampa investors nearly moved the San Francisco Giants to the area in 1992, announcing their purchase of the franchise before National League owners blocked the move under pressure from then-Marlins owner Wayne Huizenga. It opened in 1990 as the Florida Suncoast Dome, briefly serving as the home arena for the Tampa Bay Storm of the Arena Football League and the NHL’s Tampa Bay Lightning.

Since opening for baseball use in 1998, it has consistently placed near the bottom of ballpark rankings, facing criticism for its aesthetic deficiencies, a lackluster fan experience, and its infamous catwalks, which are regularly hit by batted balls and have necessitated the introduction (and frequent revision) of specialized ground rules for the field. Despite substantial recent on-field success, the Rays have consistently performed poorly in fan attendance, drawing only 14,734 fans per game in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic season), beating out only the Marlins. This may in part stem from the unusual geography of the area, which requires most of its population to cross the region’s titular bay to reach the stadium. The Rays’ lease on Tropicana Field runs through the 2027 season.

Quick Hits: Acuña, Yankees, Marlins, Pirates

By James Hicks | January 12, 2022 at 2:40pm CDT

In what’s surely a welcome sight for Braves fans, superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., who watched his teammates win the 2021 World Series from the dugout as he rehabbed an ACL tear, has resumed on-field batting practice in his native Venezuela (video of the session can be seen here, via Spanish-language baseball news site El Extrabase). Acuña sustained the injury in Miami in July while attempting to track down a fly ball off the bat of Jazz Chisholm into LoanDepot Park’s right field corner.

While it remains to be seen whether (or for how long) the injury might sap Acuña’s speed or explosiveness, the news marks a clear milestone in his recovery. However welcome the news, though, it isn’t clear when Acuña will be available, how he’ll be used when he does return, or what effect it will have on GM Alex Anthopoulos’ plans for the remainder of the Braves’ offseason. Regardless of Acuña’s availability, the Braves face several question marks in the outfield; of the four outfielders Anthopoulos acquired around the 2021 trade deadline (Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, and Adam Duvall), only Duvall remains under control for 2022. It’s also unclear how the club plans to handle the return of Marcell Ozuna from administrative leave or whether it views any of its three high-end outfield prospects (Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and Michael Harris) as ready for significant big-league action.

Other notes from around the game:

Per Lindsey Adler of The Athletic, the Yankees have promoted former big-league outfielder (and longtime minor-leaguer) Kevin Reese to the position of Vice President of Player Development. Since retiring after spending the 2007 season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Reese joined the Yankees as a minor league scout. Before this promotion, he had served as the Yankee’s Director of Professional Scouting since 2017. In an extremely small sample (16 plate appearances between 2005 and 2006), Reese posted a .385/.500/.385 batting line in the majors.
The Marlins announced a series of front office promotions, including DJ Svihlik to Senior Director of Amateur Scouting, Adrien Lorenzo to Senior Director of International Operations, Geoff DeGroot to Director of Player Development, and Hector Crespo to Director of Minor League Operations. The full list can be found via the club’s official announcement.
The Pirates announced the promotion of two minor league managers, reports Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Miguel Perez, who managed the Double-A Altoona Curve in 2021, has been named the manager of Triple-A Indianapolis, and Kieran Mattison, who had served as manager for the High-A Greensboro Grasshoppers, will move to Altoona in 2022. Perez spent twelve years as a catcher in the Reds system, going hitless in 3 ABs with the big-league club in 2005, while Mattison spent nine years bouncing around the minors and independent ball, including stints in the Royals’, Indians’, and Dodgers’ systems.

How Many $100 Million Contracts Are Left This Offseason?

By Tim Dierkes | January 12, 2022 at 12:22pm CDT

23 years ago, the Dodgers signed righty Kevin Brown to a seven-year, $105MM deal in advance of his age-34 season. It was the first baseball contract to break the $100MM barrier. The deal famously included a charter jet to fly Brown’s family from Georgia to Los Angeles 12 times per season. Sandy Alderson, then working for the commissioner’s office, called the deal “an affront and an insult to the commissioner of baseball.” Rivals were also displeased with Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, believing other bidders were not close.

Due to inflation and increases in MLB revenue, $300MM is now the top of the market round number, and nine players have crossed that barrier. $100MM is the realm of the very good, not superstar territory. Still, that round number still holds some psychological significance. This winter Corey Seager signed for $325MM, while Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman have signed in the $110-175MM range.

That’s six $100MM contracts so far this winter, which we haven’t seen since seven players broke the barrier following the 2015 season. How many more $100M deals will be struck once the lockout ends, with 20 of our top 50 free agents still on the board?

There’s a general expectation that we’ll see a free agent frenzy of sorts when the lockout ends, with the possibility that most signings will have to occur in a period of less than one month. That pressure should make for an action-packed spring training/hot stove period. In theory, we could see increased spending once new competitive balance tax thresholds are known and 15 National League designated hitter jobs are potentially added. But for the most part, I think teams already have an idea of what they think each free agent is worth, and I don’t think that’s going to change much post-lockout.

I see a total of eight remaining free agents with at least some plausible chance to reach $100MM, if I’m generous. Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman are locks. Other candidates include Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, and Nick Castellanos, who were all projected by MLBTR in November to top the $100MM barrier. We’ll also throw Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, and Seiya Suzuki in the mix, even though they seem like long shots. In the poll below, vote for all the players you think will sign a contract worth $100MM or more before the season begins. Click here for a direct link to the poll, and here for the results.

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Which Teams Are Most Likely To Acquire Matt Olson?

By Anthony Franco | January 12, 2022 at 11:48am CDT

The A’s are generally expected to make a few marquee players available after the lockout in an effort to trim payroll. If Oakland does embark on something of an organizational reboot, Matt Olson seems one of the likelier players to wind up elsewhere. Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $12MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, Olson might be the costliest player on the A’s books.

Trading Olson is the most straightforward way to reduce payroll, but he’d still be in plenty of demand around the league. A $12MM salary is well below market value for a two-time Gold Glove winning first baseman coming off a .271/.371/.540 showing that earned him an eighth-place finish in AL MVP balloting. And with another season of below-market club control remaining thereafter (barring changes to the service structure in the next collective bargaining agreement), landing Olson would probably require sending multiple highly-regarded young players back to Oakland.

Which teams are in the best position to pull off the blockbuster if the A’s make Olson available? Before looking at the best fits, we can remove a few teams from consideration. The Pirates, Orioles and Diamondbacks aren’t in the competitive window to trade for a player with two years of control. The same is probably true of the Nationals and Cubs, barring an unexpected post-lockout push for immediate contention. The Rays’ projected 2022 payroll is already $18MM higher than last year’s season-opening mark. They’re probably not taking on a $12MM salary this winter; the Reds have spent all offseason signaling a desire to cut spending.

Which teams seem to be the most plausible landing spots?

Best Fits For A Deal

Braves — Are the Braves finally going to end their stalemate with Freddie Freeman after the lockout? If he signs somewhere else, they’ll need a first baseman. Olson is reportedly on their radar as a possible replacement.
Brewers — The Brewers have a championship-caliber pitching staff, but the offense has been middle-of-the-pack. Rowdy Tellez was alright after coming over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade, but his career track record is mixed. Olson would be a definitive upgrade, and Tellez could stick around as a possible designated hitter option if the universal DH is included in the next CBA. The question is whether Milwaukee — currently projected for a payroll around $20MM north of last season’s Opening Day mark — would take on a salary in this range, but he’s a perfect fit for the roster.
Giants — The Giants are only a strong fit in the event of a universal DH. Otherwise, first base belongs to Brandon Belt. If there’s an NL DH, acquiring Olson from their crosstown rivals and giving Belt more time at DH would be a boon to an already excellent offense, and it might help the 33-year-old Belt stay healthy all season.
Mariners — The Mariners are known to be looking for another bat. Acquiring Olson and pushing Ty France to DH would fill that void, and Seattle has the payroll space to accommodate such a move. The potential holdup? Seattle’s loath to part with their top prospects, and that might be especially true in an intra-divisional trade.
Rangers — The Rangers have looked into the possibility of an Olson deal. They’ve been ultra-aggressive this winter but still look to be shy of 2022 contention. Landing Olson and pushing Nathaniel Lowe to DH would complete perhaps the sport’s top infield, although there’d still be major question marks about the pitching staff. As with Seattle, there are possible intra-divisional trade complications to consider.
Twins — The Twins have been quieter than expected this winter. They should have payroll flexibility, though, and Miguel Sanó isn’t coming off a great season. Upgrading the rotation seems like the priority in Minnesota, but the free agent starting pitching market has been largely picked clean. Might they pivot and add to an already-strong offense to try to compensate for the lackluster starting staff?
Yankees — The Yankees have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for much of the winter, with good reason. Luke Voit dealt with a series of injuries last season, and the Yankees seemed sufficiently discouraged with his health outlook to land Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline. Rizzo’s now a free agent, and while New York could opt to roll with Voit again, there’s little question Olson would at least be a marked defensive upgrade.

Plausible But Longer Odds

Dodgers — One can seemingly never rule the Dodgers out on stars. But this probably requires an NL designated hitter to pull off, given the presences of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux between first and second base.
Guardians — A $12MM salary might wind up being too hefty for the Guardians. Yet they only have $11MM in guaranteed money on the books this year, with an estimated $49MM in commitments after accounting for arbitration projections. This is a franchise that has exceeded nine figures in the past, and incumbent first baseman Bobby Bradley struck out in 35.5% of his plate appearances last year.
Marlins — The Marlins could supplant Jesús Aguilar at first, and Olson would be a massive upgrade to a lineup that struggled in 2021. Miami has plenty of young pitching that might appeal to Oakland. The Fish seem more focused on outfield help, but an Olson trade makes some sense if they pivot back to the dirt.
Padres — The Padres tend to act boldly, and they could stand to upgrade over Eric Hosmer. With a projected payroll approaching $200MM, it’s not clear how much further ownership’s willing to spend. Landing Olson might require first shedding the bulk of Hosmer’s contract in a separate trade, but that’d require parting with some prospect talent even before considering the package of young players San Diego would need to send to Oakland.
Phillies — An NL DH could theoretically bring Olson into play, with Rhys Hoskins assuming the bat-only role. Shortstop, third base, two outfield spots and the bullpen are all arguably bigger concerns for Philadelphia though.
Red Sox — The Red Sox could supplant Bobby Dalbec at first base this year. With J.D. Martinez slated to hit free agency next winter, top prospect Triston Casas could break in as a DH in 2023. Yet with clearer needs in the bullpen and either at second base or in the outfield, Olson to Boston feels like a longshot.

Teams With More Pressing Needs

Angels — Jared Walsh broke out with an All-Star campaign in 2021 and should have first base accounted for. Designated hitter? That’s occupied by the reigning AL MVP.
Astros — Yuli Gurriel is back at first base after winning the batting title. Yordan Álvarez is locked in at DH.
Blue Jays — The Blue Jays have the reigning MVP runner-up, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., at first base. It’s unlikely they’d want Guerrero to become a full-time DH this early in his career. One could argue for Toronto acquiring Olson and kicking Guerrero back to third base, but it’s probably best to leave the young star at first and try to upgrade the other infield spots more directly.
Cardinals — The Cardinals have Paul Goldschmidt at first base and some young options (Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez) for the possible DH spot.
Mets — The Mets have Pete Alonso at first and a number of offense-minded players already on the roster who could step into a DH role if needed.
Rockies — The Rockies just extended C.J. Cron. If the new CBA contains a universal DH, could they acquire Olson and take Cron off defense? That seems far-fetched, even for a Colorado team that views itself closer to contention than most outside observers would.
Royals — The Royals seem to be prioritizing bullpen help. They’d probably like to move Carlos Santana, but top prospect Nick Pratto could step in at first base in the unlikely event they find a Santana suitor.
Tigers — Miguel Cabrera is still around for two more years at DH, and top prospect Spencer Torkelson is on the doorstep of taking over first base.
White Sox — The White Sox are already at a franchise-record projected payroll and have José Abreu and Andrew Vaughn to cover first base/DH.

Payroll projections courtesy of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource

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Twins, Dereck Rodriguez Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | January 12, 2022 at 9:49am CDT

The Twins are in agreement with Dereck Rodríguez on a minor league contract, according to an announcement from the right-hander’s representative, Gavin Kahn. It’s something of a full-circle moment for Rodríguez, who began his career in the Minnesota system as a sixth-round pick in the 2011 draft.

While Rodríguez spent his first six pro seasons in the Twins organization, he’s yet to pitch in the majors with Minnesota. During his initial run, he topped out at Double-A and elected minor league free agency after the 2017 campaign. He hooked on with the Giants on a minors pact that winter and earned his first big league call the following season after an excellent start in Triple-A. Rodríguez unexpectedly became a key member of the San Francisco rotation, tossing 118 1/3 innings of 2.81 ERA ball as a rookie.

That strong run prevention came without huge strikeout or ground-ball totals, though, and Rodríguez didn’t replicate that success over the following seasons. He posted a 5.64 ERA over 99 frames in 2019, then was limited to just two relief appearances in 2020 before San Francisco designated him for assignment. Claimed off waivers by the Tigers, he spent the rest of the season on optional assignment to Detroit’s alternate training site before being outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the year.

Rodríguez signed a minor league pact with the Rockies last offseason. He spent the year with their top affiliate in Albuquerque, pitching to a 6.72 ERA across 85 2/3 innings in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. Now 29 years old, Rodríguez will try to turn the tide and rediscover some of his rookie year success in Minnesota. The Twins starting staff is fairly open beyond Dylan Bundy and Bailey Ober. They’ll surely add to that mix after the lockout, but Rodríguez might have an opportunity to land a back-end role with a strong showing in Spring Training and/or start to the regular season at Triple-A St. Paul.

Quick Hits: Elian Soto, Yankees, Hinske, Royals

By Mark Polishuk | January 11, 2022 at 10:00pm CDT

While the next international signing period opens on January 15, teams are already lining up the next wave of int’l prospects for years in advance. Washington City Paper’s Byron Kerr writes that the Nationals have agreed to a deal with outfielder/third baseman Elian Soto, the younger brother of superstar Juan Soto, as the 15-year-old has decided to join the D.C. organization when the 2023 signing period opens roughly a year from now. Reports from Z101’s Hector Gomez earlier this week suggested that the younger Soto was preparing to head to the Mets, and Soto seemingly confirmed matters by posting an Instagram video of himself wearing Mets-branded attire. New York was reportedly set to give Soto a $50K bonus, and while Brittany Ghiroli and Maria Torres of The Athletic report that the Nationals topped that offer, it wasn’t with a huge dollar figure, as the younger Soto has intriguing potential but isn’t considered a true top-tier prospect.

Though it is common practice for teams and international prospects to agree to deals well in advance of their eligibility date, deals aren’t completely official until a prospect’s signing period opens, so the younger Soto wasn’t breaking any rules by backing out of his Mets agreement. It also remains to be seen if the 2023 international signing period even exists in its current form, as it has long been speculated that MLB might overhaul the signing process and perhaps institute an international draft as part of the next collective bargaining agreement. This would wipe out the handshake deals teams have made with scores of younger prospects like Soto, and subject these players to a draft with a harder slot value (and less financial flexibility) than the one used in the North American amateur draft.

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