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2022 Amateur Draft

Rangers, Kumar Rocker Agree To Terms

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The Rangers and No. 3 overall draft pick Kumar Rocker have agreed to terms on a $5.2MM bonus, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The right-hander’s bonus clocks in well south of the pick’s $7,587,600 slot value, which should afford the Rangers flexibility further down their board. Rocker is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Rocker was the No. 10 overall pick by the Mets a year ago and was reportedly set to ink a $6MM bonus before medical concerns scuttled that deal. He’d eventually go on to have an arthroscopic procedure on his right shoulder last August. Rather than returning to Vanderbilt for his senior season, Rocker instead opted to pitch for the Tri-City Valley Cats of the independent Frontier League (an official partner league of MLB). Health hasn’t looked to be an issue at all for Rocker this time year; he’s pitched 20 innings for the Valley Cats and turned in a 1.35 ERA with a dominant 32-to-4 K/BB ratio while reportedly running his heater back up to 99 mph.

The selection by the Rangers improbably reunites Vanderbilt’s 2021 co-aces, as Texas took right-hander Jack Leiter with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft just last season. Leiter and Rocker were widely viewed as two of the top arms in last year’s draft — evidenced by their top-ten selections — and will now give the Rangers a pair of high-ceiling arms upon which to build. (Leiter certainly seems pleased with the Rangers’ selection, celebrating the pick with a pair of tweets last night.)

Rocker, 22, starred alongside Leiter for the entirety of his three years at Vanderbilt, pitching to a 2.89 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate in 236 1/3 innings for the Commodores in a tough SEC setting. The 6’5″, 245-pound righty has an upper-90s heater, and scouting reports from Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN, MLB.com and FanGraphs credit him with a slider that draws 60 to 70 grades on the 20-80 scale. Rocker has also worked with a curveball and changeup, both drawing at least average ratings in most reports.

While Rocker was one of the most recognizable names in this year’s draft, his selection at No. 3 overall nonetheless registered as a draft-night surprise. Most rankings had him as a late first-rounder or even in the second round, considering last summer’s shoulder surgery and some oft-cited inconsistency in his stuff at Vanderbilt. The Rangers were clearly heartened by Rocker’s strong showing in the Frontier League, and they’ll also now have the option to use the savings on their No. 3 selection to scoop up some lingering, hard-to-sign talents who remain on the board.

Despite picking at No. 3, Texas entered the draft with just the 14th-largest bonus pool — a reflection of the fact that they surrendered their second- and third-round picks (and the associated bonus pool allotments) to sign free agents Corey Seager and Marcus Semien this past winter. Because of those forfeitures, Rocker remains the only selection Texas has made thus far. The Rangers’ next pick will come in Round 4, and there are still a few highly regarded high school options on the board, headlined by Clemson-committed righty Brock Porter, who’s regarded as a first-round talent but was not selected on Day 1 of the draft.

Orioles Select Jackson Holliday With First Pick Of 2022 Draft

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The Orioles selected high school shortstop Jackson Holliday with the first overall selection of the 2022 amateur draft.  Holliday joins Adley Rutschman (2019) and Ben McDonald (1989) as players taken by the Orioles with the 1-1 pick, and he is the first high schooler taken first overall since the Twins drafted Royce Lewis in 2017.

Talent runs in the family, as Jackson is the son of longtime Cardinals and Rockies star Matt Holliday.  Continuing the theme of family ties, the younger Holliday becomes only the second son of a former Major League player to be taken with the 1-1 selection — the first was Ken Griffey Jr. back in 1987.

Jackson HollidayTime will tell if Holliday can approach a Hall-of-Fame or All-Star level, but the 18-year-old is one of the more highly-touted members of the 2022 draft class.  Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline each ranked Holliday as the second-best prospect of the class, with Kiley McDaniel and Baseball America each slotting Holliday third on their rankings, and The Athletic’s Keith Law rated Holliday sixth.

A left-handed hitter, Holliday has a smooth swing that generated a lot of hard contract and an increasing amount of power as his senior year progressed.  Most evaluators give him at least plus grades across the board, and as Fangraphs’ scouting report puts it, Holliday “checks literally every box, and there aren’t many lefty-hitting shortstops with this kind of juice.  He projects as an All-Star shortstop.”  While not a defensive standout per se, Holliday’s instincts and throwing arm should allow him to remain at shortstop, though he would seem to have the athleticism to be tested at other positions if the Orioles wanted to experiment.

With Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg also in Baltimore’s system as blue-chip shortstop prospects, the O’s have built up some enviable depth at a key position on the diamond.  The Orioles’ lengthy rebuild has brought quite a few top youngsters into the farm system, and perhaps the earliest impact is starting to be seen on the field in 2022, given the team’s surprising presence in the wild card race at the All-Star break.

Since Mike Elias took over the Orioles’ front office, the club has traditionally drafted college players early — Grayson Rodriguez (2018) is the only other prep first-rounder selected during Elias’ tenure.  Signability has also been a factor for the O’s, who have often taken players slightly lower on projection boards, in an attempt to land players who would sign for under-slot deals.

That way, Baltimore has more bonus-pool space to spend on other quality picks later in the draft, and perhaps have flexibility to go over-slot to land premium talent at lower draft positions.  The Orioles have a $16,924,000 bonus pool, and the first overall pick has an assigned slot value of $8,842,200.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

2022 MLB Draft, First Round Results

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The 2022 MLB Draft is underway, and here is the full list of each team’s selections from the first round.  The Dodgers are the only team without a first-rounder, as their top pick (originally 30th overall) was dropped 10 places to 40th overall (the first pick of the second round) as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2021.  However, there are still 30 picks in the first round proper since the Mets have both the 11th and 14th overall picks — for not signing 10th overall pick Kumar Rocker last year, New York was given a compensatory selection in the 11th overall spot this year.

This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days.  The first 80 picks will be made tonight — the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, and the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents).  Rounds 3-10 take place on Monday, and rounds 11-20 on Tuesday.

Under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, the 2023 draft will have several differences, including a lottery to determine the top six picks, a revamped process for deciding the Competitive Balance rounds, possible extra picks for teams due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive rules, and possibly the end of the qualifying offer system as we know it should an international draft be implemented.

For one final year under this draft format, however, let’s dive into the picks.  More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections….

  1. Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater High School (OK)
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks: Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan High School (GA)
  3. Texas Rangers: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt (played in independent Frontier League in 2021)
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Termarr Johnson, SS, Benjamin E. Mays High School (GA)
  5. Washington Nationals: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL)
  6. Miami Marlins: Jacob Berry, 3B/OF, LSU
  7. Chicago Cubs: Cade Horton, RHP, University of Oklahoma
  8. Minnesota Twins: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
  9. Kansas City Royals: Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
  10. Colorado Rockies: Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
  11. New York Mets: Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
  12. Detroit Tigers: Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
  13. Los Angeles Angels: Zach Neto, SS, Campbell University
  14. New York Mets: Jett Williams, SS/OF, Rockwall-Heath High School (TX)
  15. San Diego Padres: Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford High School (GA)
  16. Cleveland Guardians: Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison University
  17. Philadelphia Phillies: Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman High School (NV)
  18. Cincinnati Reds: Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (FL)
  19. Oakland Athletics: Daniel Susac, C, University of Arizona
  20. Atlanta Braves: Owen Murphy, RHP, Riverside-Brookfield High School (IL)
  21. Seattle Mariners: Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny High School (PA)
  22. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State University
  23. Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage High School (FL)
  24. Boston Red Sox: Mikey Romero, SS, Orange Lutheran High School (CA)
  25. New York Yankees: Spencer Jones, OF, Vanderbilt University
  26. Chicago White Sox: Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East High School (IL)
  27. Milwaukee Brewers: Eric Brown Jr., SS, Coastal Carolina University
  28. Houston Astros: Drew Gilbert, OF, University of Tennessee
  29. Tampa Bay Rays: Xavier Isaac, 1B, East Forsyth High School (NC)
  30. San Francisco Giants: Reggie Crawford, LHP/1B, University of Connecticut

Kumar Rocker Signs With Frontier League’s Tri-City ValleyCats

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Draft prospect Kumar Rocker has signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League, according to a club announcement. He’ll use the league as a showcase to demonstrate his health and current form in advance of July’s draft.

Rocker has been one of the more talented and well-known draft prospects in recent years. Regarded as a possible first-round talent out of high school, Rocker matriculated to Vanderbilt after not agreeing to terms with a major league team on draft day. The 6’5″ right-hander stepped right into the Commodores’ rotation and would spend three seasons there. He posted a 3.25 ERA over 99 2/3 innings as a freshman, capping off the season with an utterly dominant 19-strikeout no-hitter in an elimination game against Duke.

Vanderbilt would go on to defeat Michigan in that year’s College World Series. From 2020-21, Rocker teamed with Jack Leiter — who would eventually be selected second overall by the Rangers — at the top of the rotation. The 2020 college baseball season was shortened because of the pandemic, but Rocker returned with a 2.73 ERA and 179 strikeouts over 122 frames last year. Vanderbilt finished national runner-up, and Rocker headed into last summer’s draft as a possible top five selection.

The Mets wound up selecting him with the 10th overall pick, with reports suggesting they were prepared to offer an overslot $6MM signing bonus. New York took issue with something in his throwing elbow during a post-draft medical evaluation, however, and wound up pulling their offer entirely. The Mets received the 11th selection in the upcoming draft as compensation. Unsurprisingly, Rocker’s camp pushed back against the idea that he was a particular health risk, with advisor Scott Boras saying last summer the hurler “is healthy according to independent medical review by multiple prominent baseball orthopedic surgeons.”

Rocker elected not to return to Vanderbilt, preferring to prepare for the 2022 draft on his own. Vanderbilt head coach Tim Corbin suggested in February he may eventually pursue an opportunity in independent ball, and that’s the course of action he’s chosen. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (on Twitter) that Rocker will begin pitching in games for the ValleyCats around a month from now, giving him about four weeks of game action before draft day.

Baseball America placed Rocker 35th on its latest ranking of this summer’s top draft prospects. Obviously, much of his stock will depend on how concerned various team medical personnel are during their evaluations of his elbow. This is generally regarded as a weak year for college pitching, so the 22-year-old Rocker would be one of the top nearer-term arms in the class if his arsenal is intact and the medical evaluations check out.

Bonus Pools, Slot Prices Set For 2022 Draft

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Major League Baseball has established the bonus pools for all 30 teams and the slot values for every pick in the first 10 rounds of the 2022 amateur draft, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reports.  This year’s draft is set to take place July 17-19, coinciding with All-Star week in Los Angeles.

While the new collective bargaining agreement made some changes to the draft’s operations (most notably the lottery that begins in 2023), the basic structure of the bonus pools and slotting system remains intact.  As a refresher, each team receives a bonus pool to cover selections from the draft’s first 10 rounds, and each draft placement within those ten rounds has an assigned price attached to it.  Teams are free to sign players for above or below those assigned slot prices, as long as the total price tag of those signings doesn’t exceed the value of their bonus pool.

The bonus pool limit isn’t a hard cap, as teams are allowed to exceed their bonus pool, but with increasingly punitive costs.  A club must pay a 75 percent tax on any overage of between 0-5 percent of a draft pool, and many teams routinely pay this relatively minor penalty.  However, since the institution of the bonus pool system, no team has overspent its pool by more than five percent, as doing so would require a 100 percent overage tax and (of far more import) the loss of a future first-round pick.  Spending beyond the 10 and 15 percent thresholds lead to the loss of multiple picks, and it seems hard to fathom any club would ever absorb such a steep penalty.

The 2022 draft marks the first time in three years that slot prices have risen, as due to the pandemic, the league and the MLB Players Association agreed to freeze slot prices for the 2020 and 2021 drafts.  The first overall spot of this year’s draft (held by the Orioles) has an $8,842,200 slot price, a bump above the $8,415,300 assigned price for the first pick in the 2021 draft.

Here are the bonus pools for all 30 teams…

  • Orioles: $16,924,000
  • Diamondbacks: $15,112,100
  • Mets: $13,955,700
  • Pirates: $13,733,900
  • Rockies: $13,660,700
  • Royals: $11,668,300
  • Nationals: $11,007,900
  • Reds: $10,794,100
  • Marlins: $10.486MM
  • Cubs: $10,092,700
  • Padres: $10,088,900
  • Twins: $10.036MM
  • Guardians: $9,980,900
  • Rangers: $9,640,700
  • Blue Jays: $8,367,700
  • Athletics: $8,315,800
  • Red Sox: $8,078,300
  • Tigers: $8,024,900
  • Braves: $8,022,200
  • Rays: $7,795,100
  • Mariners: $7,254,400
  • Brewers: $7,070,900
  • Angels: $7,024,300
  • Cardinals: $6,842,300
  • Astros: $6.837MM
  • Yankees: $6,425,100
  • Phillies: $6.307MM
  • White Sox: $6,289,100
  • Giants: $5,793,200
  • Dodgers: $4,221,400

Top Draft Prospect Dylan Lesko Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Right-hander Dylan Lesko, one of the top prospects in the entire 2022 draft class, underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter link).

Even in spite of the surgery, McDaniel suggests that Lesko could still be the first pitcher off the board in a draft class that skews heavily toward position players. The 6’3″, 195-pound righty out of Buford High School in Georgia has a commitment to Vanderbilt and is regarded by both McDaniel and Baseball America as the clear top pitcher in this year’s class.

Earlier this month, when sharing video from one of Lesko’s outings (what proved to be his final start of 2022), McDaniel tweeted that Lesko showed a mid-90s heater with a plus curveball and the “best amateur changeup I’ve ever seen.” Carlos Collazo and Tom Lipari of Baseball America feel similarly, writing that Lesko has plus-plus (i.e. 70-grade) feel for his changeup and labeling him a “special” talent that “doesn’t come around very often.”

[Related: 2022 MLB Draft Order]

Because of the inherent risk associated with any high school pitching prospect, Lesko hasn’t been listed at the very top of draft boards — and the recent surgery likely ensures that he won’t be as the July draft approaches. McDaniel now has Lesko eighth on his draft list. Baseball America ranked him sixth prior to the injury. Notably, between high school outfielder Druw Jones (son of Andruw Jones) and shortstop Jackson Holliday (son of Matt Holliday), there are a pair of intriguing second-generation talents who are expected to come off the board in the first 10 picks of this summer’s draft.

Kumar Rocker Could Pitch In Independent League Before Re-Entering MLB Draft

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Right-hander Kumar Rocker, whom the Mets selected with the No. 10 overall pick last summer but ultimately did not sign, is now mulling the idea of pitching with an independent team before re-entering the 2022 draft, Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin tells Aria Gerson of The Tennessean.

Prior to the 2021 college season, Rocker and teammate Jack Leiter were both among the many names rumored to be in consideration for the No. 1 overall selection in the draft. He instead “fell” to the tenth overall selection — Louisville catcher Henry Davis went first overall to the Pirates; Leiter went second to the Rangers — and within hours of the draft was expected finalize an over-slot agreement with the Mets. Rocker’s No. 10 slot came with a value of more than $4.7MM, but the Mets were said to be preparing to sign the righty for a $6MM bonus that was more commensurate with his potential top-of-the-draft status.

However, as the signing deadline approached weeks later, the reports emerged that the Mets had elbow concerns following Rocker’s physical. A contract was never finalized, and Rocker went unsigned. Then-general manager Zack Scott stated after the fact that failing to reach a deal was “clearly not the outcome we had hoped for,” adding that the team “wish[ed] Kumar nothing but success moving forward.” Rocker’s advisor, Scott Boras, issued his own statement at the time, wherein he declared that “independent medical review by multiple prominent baseball orthopedic surgeons” had proven Rocker to be healthy. The Mets received the No. 11 pick in the 2022 draft as compensation for not signing Rocker.

Whatever triggered the Mets’ concern, it hasn’t resulted in any major physical setbacks for Rocker since the draft. There’s no indication that surgery was ever required, and Corbin tells Gerson that Rocker, who did not return to pitch for the Commodores in his senior season, “looks as good as he’s ever looked” and appears to be in good health.

Rocker’s path to reentering the draft would be uncommon but not unheard of. Back in 2005, after right-hander Luke Hochevar controversially chose not sign with the Dodgers following his No. 40 selection, he went on to pitch for the Fort Worth Cats of the independent American Association in the spring of 2006. The Royals selected Hochevar with the No. 1 overall pick in 2006.

A similar scenario unfolded with right-hander Aaron Crow, who did not sign with the Nationals after being selected ninth overall in 2008. Crow signed with the Fort Worth Cats and was selected 12th overall by Kansas City in 2009. Back in 1997, outfielder J.D. Drew followed the indie ball path after choosing not to sign with the Phillies. More recently, righty Carter Stewart signed a six-year contract worth more than $7MM with the SoftBank Hawks in Japan after failing to come to an agreement with the Braves, who’d selected him at No. 8 overall in 2018. As with Rocker, medical concerns following the player’s physical derailed talks between Atlanta and Stewart.

It’s anyone’s guess how the entire gambit will work out for Rocker — if he even pitches on the independent circuit at all this season. That will largely depend on his performance and even more so on his health. So long as Rocker’s stuff looks similar to his Vandy days, he should still be viewed as a first-round talent. The 6’5″, 245-pound righty was dominant with the Commodores in 2021, after all, pitching to a 2.73 ERA with 179 strikeouts and 39 walks through 122 innings (36.5% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate). Scouting reports on Rocker credit him with a plus fastball that can reach the upper-90s, a plus-plus slider (70 on the 20-80 scale) and an average or better changeup.

Quick Hits: Assistant GMs, Kjerstad, 2022 Draft

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There’s plenty of ambition to be found within baseball’s front offices, and yet for an increasing number of executives, remaining in a secondary role is a nice place to be, The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli and Eno Sarris write.  Whether in an assistant GM role or as a general manager working under a president of baseball operations, these “top lieutenant” positions tend to involve more job security, increased pay in recent years as teams try to prevent other clubs from poaching employees, and a lot less public pressure than being the head of a baseball ops department.  As one former GM put it, “there’s so much scrutiny on it that people are like, ’Screw it, I’m happy making a nice living and can be around my kids and go out to dinner without being recognized.’ ”

On the other hand, if there is relatively less movement amongst front office personnel, that can also lead to a stagnation of hiring practices.  This makes it harder for minority candidates to get opportunities for a notable front office position, let alone consideration for a PBO or GM job.  As White Sox executive VP Kenny Williams has observed, teams are increasingly hiring front office personnel lacking in baseball-related experience, and yet that same lack of experience is often cited as a reason why women or minority candidates aren’t given promotions to larger roles.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Heston Kjerstad might receive an invitation to the Orioles’ big league Spring Training camp, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  It is a welcome bit of good news for Kjerstad, who is now fully recovered from the myocarditis that has thus far kept the second overall pick of the 2020 draft from beginning his professional career.  Kjerstad has gotten in some work at Orioles minicamps and in the fall instructional league, with the early returns against live pitching already impressing team coaches and evaluators.
  • Speaking of high draft picks, the top of the 2022 draft class figures to be heavy with position players, with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis predicting that “at least eight hitters will go in the first 10 selections.”  This seems due to both a lack of standout college pitchers and an above-average group of hitters at both the collegiate and prep levels.  High schoolers Druw Jones (son of former Braves star Andruw Jones) and Termarr Johnson rate particularly well with Callis, who puts Jones and Johnson behind only Bobby Witt Jr. as the best position player prospects of the 2019-22 draft classes.

Draft Prospect Peyton Pallette To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Peyton Pallette, a pitcher at the University of Arkansas, has sustained a UCL injury that’ll require Tommy John surgery, as first reported by Kendall Rogers of D1 Baseball. That’ll obviously end Pallette’s third season in Fayetteville before it begins, with TJS procedures typically requiring a recovery timeline in the 14-16 month range.

It’s a crushing blow for the Razorbacks, as Pallette had been the expected ace of a team with legitimate national championship aspirations. It’s also a very notable development for major league teams, with the 6’1″ right-hander projecting as one of the top pitchers in the upcoming amateur draft. Earlier this week, Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo slotted Pallette as the class’ #13 overall prospect. Among college pitchers, only Tennessee’s Blake Tidwell (#12) ranked higher.

Pallette boasts a power arsenal, with Collazo writing that he typically sits in the 93-95 MPH range and has been clocked up to 99. His top secondary weapon is an impressive curveball with elite raw spin rates, while he also generates some promising arm-side action on his changeup. Pallette only made four relief appearances before the 2020 college season was canceled due to the pandemic, but he emerged as a key member of the Hogs’ starting staff last year.

Across 15 appearances (including 11 starts), Pallette worked 56 innings with a 4.02 ERA. He fanned 27.2% of opposing hitters against an 8.1% walk rate. He suffered a season-ending elbow injury last May, however, missing out on Arkansas’ run to super regionals. While it looked for a while as if he’d be able to rehab from that issue and return to the mound this season, that’ll unfortunately prove not to be the case.

It remains to be seen how significant a blow the surgery will prove to Pallette’s draft stock. Upon learning of the procedure, BA dropped him to 29th in their overall rankings. As that suggests, it’s not out of the question he still comes off the board in the first round. Last summer, the Blue Jays selected Ole Miss righty Gunnar Hoglund 19th overall, despite the fact that he’d undergone his own Tommy John procedure two months prior. Hoglund had a lengthier track record of success as a starting pitcher than Pallette has compiled, though. Perhaps a more apt reference point may be former LSU hurler Jaden Hill, selected 44th overall by the Rockies despite undergoing TJS after seven starts during his first season as a full-time rotation member.

Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.
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