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2022-23 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are fresh off a fourth straight postseason appearance, but they’ve failed to advance to a Division Series in each of the last three years. They’ll presumably try to run things back with as much continuity as possible given their regular season success, but they’ll do so without two franchise icons who had long ago announced that 2022 would be their final seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $144MM through 2027 (Arenado can opt out this offseason; Rockies owe Cardinals $16MM in 2023 regardless of Arenado’s decision, Colorado would owe an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if he declines to opt out)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $52MM through 2024
  • Steven Matz, LHP: $35.5MM through 2025
  • Miles Mikolas, RHP: $17MM through 2023
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $11MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Giovanny Gallegos, RHP: $11MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Drew VerHagen, RHP: $3MM

Total 2023 commitments: $84.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $54.5MM if Arenado opts out (factoring in Rockies’ payments)
Total future commitments: $242.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $113.5MM if Arenado opts out

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Total arbitration projections: $39.85MM

Non-tender candidates: Stratton, Reyes, Hudson, Cabrera

Free Agents

The Cardinals outlasted the Brewers with an excellent second half, claiming an NL Central title after two straight Wild Card berths. St. Louis’ 93 wins weren’t enough to secure a first-round bye in the new playoff format, however, leaving the Cards to match up against the Phillies in a three-game Wild Card set. Philadelphia came back from a ninth-inning deficit in Game One and went on to sweep the series, starting the St. Louis offseason earlier than the organization had hoped.

The Cardinals have had a string of early playoff exits in recent years, but they’ve continuously been one of the game’s most successful regular season teams. They’ve earned four straight playoff berths and haven’t had a below-average record in 15 years. It’s a remarkable run of consistency, anchored by one of the longer-tenured front office regimes and a few iconic presences on the roster. The front office tandem of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch will be back, with Girsch inking a multi-year extension last week and Mozeliak already under contract. Yet the Cards will have to turn the page from Yadier Molina and, after a surprising resurgent return season in St. Louis that saw him eclipse 700 career home runs, Albert Pujols.

Molina and Pujols announced before the 2022 season even began that it’d be their final runs. Adam Wainwright has made no such declaration, playing things much closer to the vest. The 41-year-old has been a fixture on the St. Louis roster for nearly two decades. He’s a free agent again, and while it’s impossible to envision him playing anywhere else, Wainwright has yet to declare whether he plans to continue pitching. If he wants to return, there’s no question the Cards would carve out a rotation spot yet again. He’s coming off another successful year, posting a 3.71 ERA over 191 2/3 innings. He and the Redbirds agreed to a $17.5MM extension last offseason, and it’s easy to envision another one-year deal in that range.

Wainwright told reporters after the season we’d “know pretty soon” whether he was returning, teasing that he was already aware of his decision (link via Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch). That doesn’t seem likely to drag too deep into the offseason, while the Cardinals biggest question has to be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Nolan Arenado is coming off arguably the best season of his career, one which should see him compete with corner infield mate Paul Goldschmidt for MVP support. He’ll have the opportunity to opt out of the final five years and $144MM on his contract at the start of the offseason.

Arenado forewent an opt-out chance last year, telling Goold it “was always the plan” to stay in St. Louis long-term at that time. The seven-time All-Star was coming off a relative down season in 2021, however, and it wasn’t clear he’d have topped the six years and $179MM remaining on his deal at that point. After this year’s incredible showing on both sides of the ball, he’d certainly beat $144MM as a free agent if his main priority were to maximize his earnings. Freddie Freeman received a six-year, $162MM deal (albeit with deferrals that knocked down its net present value) heading into his age-32 season coming off a less impressive platform year. Arenado would figure to top that mark were he a free agent.

The nine-time Gold Glover hasn’t tipped his hand this time around, but he’s consistently maintained his love for both St. Louis and the Cardinals organization. After the Cards were eliminated, he reiterated to reporters he’s “really loved it here” and added “hopefully we can figure (the contract) out” (via Brenden Schaeffer of KMOV).

It’s certainly possible Arenado decides not to pursue his greatest earning potential and sticks with an organization with which he’s clearly happy. That could take the form of just opting in to his existing deal or maybe a preemptive contract restructure. Arenado is slated to make just $15MM in the final season of his current deal. If St. Louis agreed to make his 2027 salary more commensurate with the $32.25MM average annual value of the deal’s next four years, perhaps that’d strike a balance between rewarding his excellent season while preserving continuity.

The Cardinals have plenty of breathing room financially to rework Arenado’s deal if necessary. According to the Associated Press, the Rockies will owe the Cards $16MM next season regardless of Arenado’s opt-out decision, as agreed upon in the 2021 trade that sent him to St. Louis. Colorado would send an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if Arenado declines to opt out. With the Rox on the hook for such a notable portion of next year’s salary, the Cardinals would only have roughly $54.5MM in guaranteed commitments (subtracting the money they’d receive from Colorado) if Arenado opts out.

They’re likely to allocate another $35-40MM to a loaded arbitration class, but that’d still leave them with less than $100MM in player expenditures. St. Louis has opened the past two seasons with a player payroll north of $150MM, so they could absolutely accommodate a hefty Arenado deal next year. Only Goldschmidt ($26MM), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) and Giovanny Gallegos ($5.5MM) are on guaranteed deals by 2024, so there shouldn’t be much long-term concern about keeping Arenado around.

That’s also true because the Cards will retain much of their remaining roster. Goldschmidt will be back at first base, while Tommy Edman is arbitration-eligible for three more seasons to take one middle infield spot. Edman is a decent hitter and one of the game’s best defenders at either second base or shortstop. He’ll certainly be in the lineup at one of those spots for manager Oliver Marmol, but there’s at least a chance for the Cardinals to look outside the organization for middle infield help.

St. Louis sat out a loaded free agent shortstop class last offseason, counting on Paul DeJong to return to form offensively. He did not, hitting a career-worst .157/.245/.286 over 237 MLB plate appearances. The Cardinals optioned him to Triple-A midway through the year, and while he performed fairly well there, he didn’t carry that over after returning to the majors for the season’s final two months. With $11MM remaining on his contract, taking the form of a $9MM 2023 salary and a $2MM buyout on a ’24 club option, DeJong will be tough to move. Maybe the Cardinals consider a swap of undesirable deals for a position of greater need — speculatively speaking, a deal with the Angels involving catcher Max Stassi could match up financially while making sense with each team’s roster outlook — but it’s also possible St. Louis just releases DeJong and eats the money. At the very least, his streak of five straight Opening Day starts at shortstop will come to an end.

There’s again a loaded shortstop class in free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts locks to opt out of their current deals and join Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner. The Cardinals long-term financial flexibility means they could plausibly kick the tires on that group. However, signing one of the top shortstops would be out of character for an organization that has only once gone beyond $100MM on a free agent contract (seven years and $120MM to retain Matt Holliday in 2009-10) and has never signed a player for more than $130MM. Correa and Turner would shatter the franchise record outlay, and Bogaerts and Swanson shouldn’t have much trouble topping that figure themselves.

If Arenado opts out and signs elsewhere, a run at the top free agent shortstops would appear more realistic. If he stays, then the Cards could look to trade possibilities like the Guardians’ Amed Rosario or stick with Edman at shortstop while giving second base to a combination of Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Gorman is a former first-rounder and top prospect; he has huge power but notable strikeout issues and isn’t an ideal fit in the middle infield. Donovan was a less heralded prospect but finished seventh in the majors (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .394 on-base percentage as a rookie. He worked in a bat-first utility role and may not be a great defender at the keystone either, but he looks like the kind of excellent contact hitter the Cardinals have excelled at developing over the years.

There’s not a huge need for an overhaul in the outfield. Corey Dickerson will probably walk in free agency, leaving the Cards with a group of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and breakout prospect Alec Burleson. Trading Harrison Bader at this past deadline subtracted an elite defender from the mix, but Carlson rated well in his half-season of center field work. The Cardinals seem committed to him as a franchise center fielder, and the others give them a balanced group of corner outfield/designated hitter options from which to choose. O’Neill had a down year after a standout 2021 campaign, but Nootbaar took a step forward and looks like a potential everyday player. Perhaps the Cardinals look for a glove-first backup to upgrade over Ben DeLuzio in a bench role, but this doesn’t look like a spot for a big investment.

That’d be particularly true if Arenado sticks around, since he’d lock down third base for the long haul. 2020 first-rounder Jordan Walker has blossomed into one of the sport’s top prospects as a potential impact power bat and is fresh off a .306/.388/.510 showing as a 20-year-old in Double-A. He’s played primarily third base in the minors but has gotten increasing work in the corner outfield. If Arenado and Goldschmidt are under contract for the next two-plus seasons, the corner outfield/DH is the easiest path to at-bats for Walker once he’s ready, which could be as soon as the middle of next season.

The position the Cardinals will need to address from outside the organization is catcher. For the first time in almost two decades, it won’t be Molina’s job. Andrew Knizner hasn’t shown himself capable of being Molina’s heir apparent as once hoped. He could stick around in a backup role, but he shouldn’t be expected to assume the #1 job. Prospect Iván Herrera hit .268/.374/.396 in 65 Triple-A games at age 22, earning a very brief big league look in the process. He’s a potential long-term option, but it’d probably be too risky to count on him as the top catcher for a win-now 2023 team.

Free agency doesn’t offer many obvious solutions. Longtime division rival Willson Contreras is the standout at the position. The Cardinals are a viable suitor for Contreras, but he’s more of a bat-first player and would be an atypical fit for an organization that has placed such a strong premium on defense. Signing Contreras, who’ll receive a qualifying offer, would also require forfeiting an amateur draft choice. Other than Contreras, Christian Vázquez may be the only free agent backstop who’s a lock to land a regular job, while Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino could be glove-first stopgaps to Herrera. The A’s Sean Murphy, who’s projected for a $3.5MM arbitration salary and controllable through 2025, would be the prize of the trade market at the position. If the Cardinals were inclined to make a splash, it’s easy to envision the A’s having interest in big league ready players like Gorman and Burleson.

St. Louis could poke around the trade market for controllable starting pitching as well, although they won’t enter the offseason with as pressing a rotation need as most teams. Miles Mikolas is under contract for an additional season, while deadline pickup Jordan Montgomery will be back for his final year of arbitration. St. Louis signed Matz to a four-year free agent deal last winter. Injuries contributed to a rough first season, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back. Wainwright would obviously have a rotation spot if he wants to return.

There’s a bit of uncertainty at the back end, but the Cardinals have options. Jack Flaherty has shown top-of-the-rotation potential in the past and is eligible for arbitration a final time. He’s lost most of the past year and a half to shoulder issues, but he’ll certainly be tendered a contract with a relatively modest projected $5.1MM arbitration salary. It’s possible Mozeliak and his staff gauge the trade market on Flaherty, but he wouldn’t garner a huge return and seems likelier to be on the Cards roster come Opening Day. If healthy, he figures to have a rotation spot.

There’s enough uncertainty with Flaherty and Matz the Cardinals could look for a depth option at the back end. Midseason trade pickup José Quintana pitched well enough down the stretch St. Louis tabbed him as the Game One starter for their Wild Card series. He’ll be a free agent and may have pitched himself beyond the Cards’ comfort range financially, but there’s a deep free agent market of innings-eating starting pitchers this winter. Players like Michael Wacha, Drew Smyly or Kyle Gibson figure to land affordable one or two-year contracts.

Adding another starter, particularly if Wainwright does opt for retirement, would have the added benefit of allowing St. Louis to pencil Andre Pallante into the bullpen. He worked as a swingman as a rookie and was a valuable ground-ball specialist. He’s an internal rotation option but could fit better in multi-inning relief. That’s also true of Dakota Hudson, who struggled enough as a starter he was optioned back to Triple-A late in the year. With a projected $2.7MM arb salary, Hudson could also be traded for a minimal return or just cut loose altogether.

At the back end of the bullpen, flamethrowing Ryan Helsley has broken out as one the game’s best relievers. The ever-consistent Gallegos joins him as a high-leverage option, and he was rewarded with a late-season two-year extension. Jordan Hicks and Alex Reyes have been inconsistent, largely due to injuries, but they’ve shown the potential to be high-leverage relievers at their best. Reyes missed all of 2022 and could be non-tendered, but the Cards could roll the dice on a $2.85MM salary depending on his recovery from May shoulder surgery. Chris Stratton came over from the Pirates in the Quintana deal and could factor in as well, although a projected $3.5MM salary might be rich for a player who didn’t make the team’s playoff roster.

There’s a bit of uncertainty from the left side, but the Cards again have options. Packy Naughton and former first-rounder Zack Thompson were serviceable. Génesis Cabrera had a brutal 2022 season but is only projected for a $1.2MM arbitration salary. He still throws in the mid-upper 90s and has taken high-leverage innings in the past. There’s room for another left-handed arm, particularly if the Cards move on from Cabrera, but adding there feels like more of a luxury than a necessity.

That’s true for much of the roster, which boasts a few star players and the Cardinals’ typical stockpile of depth. All eyes in St. Louis early in the offseason will be on Arenado. If he opts out and surprisingly signs with a different team, the Cards could find themselves in position for major turnover. If he stays in St. Louis, as most anticipate he will, the offseason figures to be primarily about preserving continuity — although they’ll have to make a change at catcher for the first time in 20 years regardless.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 10-20-22. Click here to view the transcript of that discussion.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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In conjunction with this post, Tim Dierkes held a Cubs-centric live chat on 10-18-22.  Read the transcript here.

The time has come for the Cubs to add significant talent, but are they willing to make long-term commitments?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marcus Stroman, SP: $46MM through 2024.  Can opt out of remaining one year and $21MM after 2023 season
  • Jason Heyward, RF: $22MM through 2023
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $15.5MM through 2023.  Includes $16MM club option for 2024
  • Seiya Suzuki, RF: $73MM through 2026
  • Yan Gomes, C: $7MM through 2023.  Includes $6MM club option for 2024
  • David Bote, 3B: $10.5MM through 2024.  Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for 2026

Total 2023 commitments: $92.5MM
Total future commitments: $181.5MM

Option Decisions

  • Drew Smyly, SP: $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The 2022 Cubs played to their low preseason expectations.  FanGraphs pegged them for 75 wins, and they won 74.  It was an assortment of players that seemed unlikely to contend, but could maybe hang on the fringes of playoff contention.

As it turned out, the Cubs posted an abysmal 35-57 first half and were out of contention very quickly, but salvaged their record and created optimism in some quarters with a 39-31 second half.  How much of that success is sustainable, and who will president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer pursue this winter to turn this team into a contender?

The rotation posted a 2.89 ERA in the second half, which ranked third in baseball.  This fact was touted by owner Tom Ricketts in his annual letter to fans, so it’s worth a deeper look.  One stat that jumps out is the rotation’s MLB-best 80.1% left-on-base percentage in the second half.  Coupled with a below-average strikeout rate, there’s little indication the Cubs’ starting pitchers are actually skilled at stranding baserunners.

Eight Cubs pitchers made four or more starts in the second half.  Two of them, Drew Smyly and Wade Miley, are headed toward free agency.  The remaining six: Marcus Stroman, Adrian Sampson, Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Keegan Thompson.

Stroman dealt with COVID-19 and shoulder inflammation early this year, but was excellent in 16 starts to close out his season.  While the veteran serves as the Cubs’ nominal ace heading into his age-32 campaign, he’s also likely to opt out of the remaining $21MM on his contract with a solid 2023.  Stroman is a good player to have for ’23, but he’ll essentially be in a contract year and thus isn’t a long-term piece.

As for Smyly, the Cubs are expected to talk to his agent this month about a new contract, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.  If the Cubs were to sign Smyly to a two-year deal, it’d cover his age 34-35 seasons.  Smyly’s 22 starts this year went about as well as could be expected, and the temptation to lock in a veteran for next year is understandable.  Smyly did miss all of June with an oblique strain, and battled shoulder fatigue in the season’s final two weeks.  This year’s 106 1/3 innings is about all a team can expect from him.  Even cherry-picking to leave out April and September, Smyly still averaged fewer than five innings per start.  He had a below-average strikeout rate, too, instead succeeding based on a low walk rate and weak contact.  There may be some recency bias at play here in the expectation that Smyly’s modest 2022 success will continue.

The Cubs did turn up a pair of interesting, under-30 potential long-term rotation pieces in the second half: Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski.  Steele, a 27-year-old southpaw, closed out his season with a run of 14 starts featured a sparkling 2.05 ERA and solid 16 K-BB%.  For a two-month span, Steele looked, at least, like one of the 20 best pitchers in the game.  He missed all of September due to a back injury, so the next step in his development will be to increase his innings beyond this year’s 119.

Wesneski, 25 in December, came via a shrewd one-for-one trade with the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross.  Wesneski posted an excellent 2.18 ERA in 33 innings with the peripherals to match, but it was only 33 innings and his 5.3% walk rate in the Majors is likely unsustainable.

At present the Cubs can really only write Stroman and Steele into their 2023 rotation.  World Series hero Kyle Hendricks has at least one year left on his contract, but his season ended in July due to a capsular tear in his right shoulder.  The Cubs can hope for a return to form, but can’t count on Hendricks.  Of the other rotation candidates, Sampson and Assad had the best results, combining for a 3.19 ERA in 27 starts.  Neither had the peripheral stats to back up an ERA below 4.50.  The bottom line is that a competitive 2023 team will need to add at least two starting pitchers this winter.  Even if one of them is Smyly, who else might the Cubs consider?

Asked about adding a top of the rotation starter – which the Cubs obviously need – Hoyer replied, “I think it’s important that we continue to add quality innings.  We’re actively looking for quality innings, pitchers we feel like we can work with and potentially make better.”  To me, this is mostly classic GM-speak that doesn’t reveal much about offseason plans, though Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports feels Hoyer’s comment suggests sights set somewhere below one of the best pitchers on the free agent market, Carlos Rodon.

I believe the Cubs are committed to avoiding risky contracts, and wouldn’t take the plunge on a starter like Rodon unless, like Stroman, he could somehow be landed on a three-year deal.  While I agree with the speculation that Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are unlikely to join the 2023 Cubs, I think the market is rife with opportunities for good pitchers who can be had with commitments of three or fewer years.  And keep in mind, the three-year limitation is only my speculation.

It’s easy to see the Cubs focusing some interest on older but recently-effective starters who shouldn’t require excessive years: Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jameson Taillon are a few who come to mind.  It’s also easy to see Hoyer turning back to Japan for Kodai Senga, who turns 30 in January and just posted a 1.89 ERA in 148 innings for the Softbank Hawks.  A four-year deal for Senga at an AAV below that of the typical MLB-experienced free agent ace could be possible.  Zach Eflin could be another name to watch, as the soon-to-be free agent righty doesn’t turn 29 until April.  The Cubs could pursue Shane Bieber or Pablo Lopez via trade, and that market always includes a few surprises every winter.  If Shohei Ohtani is made available, the Cubs would have to at least gauge the asking price and consider converting some of their prospect capital into the superstar they’re lacking.

Turning to the bullpen, the Cubs were relying on Brandon Hughes, Manny Rodriguez, Mark Leiter Jr., Adbert Alzolay, and Keegan Thompson in high leverage situations in the season’s final month.  That was necessitated by the club’s veteran bullpen purge, which saw David Robertson, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, and Effross sent packing in trades.  It seems likely Hoyer will continue deploying his strategy of one-year deals for veteran free agent relievers, with the specific names impossible to predict.

On the position player side, the Cubs seem content with Happ and Suzuki at the corners again next year.  While neither fit the profile as a middle of the order masher, both outfielders posted offensive numbers at least 16% better than league average.  At 3.5 WAR, Happ put together the best season of his career in 2022, and the Cubs will at least explore an extension.  My guess is that Happ won’t be retained long-term, with prospects Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario near MLB-ready.

The Cubs gave most of their center field reps to Christopher Morel and Rafael Ortega in 2022.  While Morel had a solid rookie season overall, there’s a good chance the Cubs will look outside the organization for short-term help in center.  A one-year deal for Cody Bellinger (who’s likely to be non-tendered by the Dodgers) could be interesting, or the Cubs could take a more defense-minded approach with Kevin Kiermaier.  Long-term, the Cubs will likely keep center field open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who finished 2022 at High-A.

The Cubs surprisingly held on to catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline this year, presumably because they felt the offers were worse than the draft pick they would receive if he turns down a qualifying offer.  That pick would be between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 in next summer’s draft.  Contreras, 31 in May, will likely seek a four or five-year deal in free agency, and the Cubs have not seemed interested in hammering something out to retain their longtime backstop.

A Contreras departure would leave the Cubs reliant on Yan Gomes and P.J. Higgins behind the plate.  Prospect Miguel Amaya is recovering from injuries and has yet to play above Double-A, but could be a factor for the Cubs in the second half.  The free agent market features a typical array of veteran catchers, and there’s a decent chance the Cubs will sign one to bolster their depth.

Alfonso Rivas, 26, led the Cubs in defensive innings at first base.  He managed just an 82 wRC+ in 287 plate appearances.  The Cubs released Frank Schwindel in September, and simply don’t have much at the position.  Much of their DH time went to Franmil Reyes, Contreras, and Schwindel.  Reyes posted a 94 wRC+ in 193 plate appearances for the Cubs after being claimed off waivers from the Guardians, and the team may choose not to tender him a contract and instead keep their options open.

This leaves the Cubs hurting for offense at two traditionally easier-to-fill positions in first base and DH.  The ship may have sailed on Anthony Rizzo even if he does opt out of his Yankees contract, but free agency offers names like Jose Abreu, Brandon Belt, J.D. Martinez, Matt Carpenter, and Michael Brantley.  The Cubs may also find some at-bats for Matt Mervis, who would be a 25-year-old rookie next year and had a huge 2022 with the bat as he ascended from High-A to Triple-A.

The Cubs could also look to upgrade at third base, after a 1.1 WAR season from Patrick Wisdom.  Wisdom, who has also played some first base and left field, could still stick around as a lefty-masher.  If Nolan Arenado doesn’t reach free agency, the third base market looks thin.  Names like Brandon Drury or Evan Longoria could be in play.

Nico Hoerner’s breakout 4-WAR 2022 campaign affords the Cubs some intriguing possibilities.  The first could be an extension for Hoerner, perhaps with J.P. Crawford’s four-year, $46.15MM extension serving as a guidepost.  Though Hoerner logged almost all of his innings at shortstop this year and got above-average defensive marks, the Cubs have signaled a willingness to move him to second base next year.  That could make playing time hard to come by for Nick Madrigal, but the 25-year-old contact specialist put up just a 70 wRC+ in 228 plate appearances this year.

Speculation has been heavy on the possibility of the Cubs signing one of the four big free agent shortstops: Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, or Carlos Correa.  Owner Tom Ricketts did nothing to dispel that notion, saying in his letter to fans, “We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.”  Hoyer told reporters, “I have total confidence — if we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players — that we’ll have his blessing. And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”

Hoyer has also been known to talk about “intelligent” spending.  He elaborated recently, “To me, intelligent spending involves making decisions that make sense for the 2023 season but also aren’t going to hinder what we’re trying to build. The nature of baseball contracts is challenging that way. We’ve all seen contracts of certain lengths that can really bog a team down. It’s easy to talk about the player you’re acquiring, but if that contract ends up hindering the ultimate goal here, which is to build something special and sustainable and lasting, then it wasn’t a good transaction.”

Regret set in pretty quickly for the Cubs’ last two $100MM deals.  With Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal, he simply never hit as the Cubs expected, and Hoyer told reporters in August that the club will release him and eat the $22MM remaining on his contract for 2023.  Darvish was traded for prospects halfway through his six-year deal.  Heyward’s contract, in particular, contributed to the Ricketts family keeping the checkbook closed after the 2018 and ’19 seasons.

We at MLBTR are still deliberating our free agent contract projections, but all of the big four shortstops figure to hit the market seeking seven or eight-year deals. Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson, and Correa were born within a two-year span of each other.  Bogaerts, the oldest, recently turned 30.  Correa, the youngest, just celebrated his 28th birthday.  That gap may not seem like much, but the Cubs are clearly worried about entering another long-term deal they’ll quickly regret.  That’s why I could see some favor for Correa, who could sign a seven-year deal that would still only take him through age 34.

Considering likely non-tenders, the Cubs appear to have about $107MM tied up for a dozen players in 2023, including Heyward’s money.  Assuming Stroman opts out after ’23, the Cubs have a mere two players under contract for 2024 with Suzuki making $20MM and Bote at $5.5MM.  The initial competitive balance tax thresholds are set at $233MM in 2023 and $237MM in 2024.  The Cubs, in one of the country’s largest markets, are currently $217MM below the first CBT threshold for 2024 if Stroman opts out.

There are no players the Cubs can’t afford, up to and including Aaron Judge.  But with Judge turning 31 in April and looking to be paid through age-38 and beyond – and with the Cubs’ outfield in decent long-term shape – he seems an unlikely target.

The Cubs are not remotely close to the CBT.  While teams have stopped paying top free agents through age 41, as the Angels did with Albert Pujols a decade ago, paying stars through age 37 is still often the only way to get them.  And even deals for the youngest of free agents can go bust; it’s hard to find a free agent younger than the 26 Heyward was when the Cubs signed him.

The Cubs outspent expectations last winter with over $200MM in commitments, yet still avoided the leap of faith required to sign the top players on the market.  With the payroll looking increasingly clear and two rebuilding seasons in the rearview, we’ll find out soon how far the Cubs are willing to go.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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The Red Sox are trying to bounce back from a last-place finish in the AL East, but they face the possible departure of a longtime star.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Trevor Story, IF: $120MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Story can opt out after 2025 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $60MM through 2025, $20MM club option for 2026 (Bogaerts can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
  • Chris Sale, SP: $55MM through 2024, with $20MM club option for 2025 ($20MM of guaranteed money is deferred; Sale can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $39MM through 2025 (Padres covering all but the annual minimum MLB salary; Hosmer can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
  • Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $17.75MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout of $8.25MM club option for 2027; Red Sox also have a $10.5MM club option for 2028, with a $500K buyout)
  • Enrique Hernandez, IF/OF: $10MM through 2023
  • Matt Barnes, RP: $9.75MM through 2023 (includes $2.25MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)

Option Decisions

  • James Paxton, SP: $13MM club options for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, to be exercised at the same time; if Red Sox decline the options, Paxton has a $4MM player option for 2023
  • Tommy Pham, OF: $6MM mutual option for 2023 ($1.5MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

With a 78-84 record in baseball’s most competitive division, the Red Sox suffered their fifth last-place finish in the last 11 seasons.  It is the latest dip in a strangely inconsistent era for the franchise, as the Sox have also captured two World Series titles from five postseason appearances in that same 11-year stretch.  The presence of certain tentpole stars (i.e. David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers) have helped the Sox make these quick turn-arounds, and yet that stability isn’t as apparent heading into 2023.

Bogaerts’ fate is the biggest question facing the Red Sox as the offseason begins, as the shortstop is expected to test free agency and opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his contract.  Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and members of the ownership group have all said both publicly and privately that they want to retain Bogaerts, the shortstop wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, and Bogaerts has repeatedly stated that his preference would be to remain in Boston.  However, the Sox reportedly made a curiously low offer (one additional year and $30MM added onto Bogaerts’ current deal) during Spring Training extension talks, and already seemed to be laying the groundwork for Bogaerts’ departure by signing All-Star shortstop Trevor Story last offseason.

Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series is over, the Sox still have some time to negotiate with Bogaerts and agent Scott Boras.  While it isn’t totally uncommon to see notable players work out new extensions this close to the open market, the air of finality that has seemed to hang over Bogaerts’ Red Sox tenure creates plenty of doubt that a new deal can indeed be reached, before or after the Sox have to start bidding against other teams for Bogaerts’ services.

Between Bogaerts and outright free agents like J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, this offseason could mark something of the end of an era in Boston, especially after longtime catcher Christian Vazquez was already dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline.  That said, the Vazquez deal was the only rebuild-esque move made at the deadline, as the Sox otherwise kept most of their veterans and even added more experienced help in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer.

That attempt at a last-minute push for a wild card berth well fell short, leaving the Sox slightly above the luxury tax threshold (and the only one of the six tax-paying teams to not reach the playoffs).  The actual $900K in taxes is a relative drop in the bucket, but the Red Sox now face added penalties in regards to qualifying-offer free agents this winter.  Should the Sox sign a QO-rejecting free agent, they’ll have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2023 draft.  Also, the compensatory pick that the Red Sox would themselves receive if a QO-rejecting free agent — like Bogaerts or Eovaldi — signed elsewhere will now fall after the fourth round of the draft.

The luxury tax penalty adds another wrinkle to a busy offseason for Bloom.  It is worth mentioning that Bloom’s immediate predecessors in the job (Dave Dombrowski and Ben Cherington) were each fired after four years or less, even though both had overseen a World Series champion during their tenure.  While ownership may be more patient this time around, Bloom has thus far sandwiched a trip to the 2021 ALCS between two last-place finishes, so he could be facing extra pressure to get the Red Sox back to contention.

In fairness, the Sox were a lot more competitive than your usual last-place team, and might have been contenders in any other division.  (Boston had an ugly 26-50 record against AL East opponents but were a dominant 52-34 against non-division clubs.)  The Red Sox might’ve made more of a charge in 2022 if they’d had had only an average number of injuries, yet the AL East is so competitive that the Sox can hardly just run things back and hope for better health next year, especially with so much key personnel slated for free agency.

All of the potential departures do leave a lot of open payroll space heading into the winter, and yet though Bloom is the CBO of a team that surpassed the luxury tax threshold, splashy moves haven’t really been Bloom’s forte.  Story’s six-year, $140MM deal is far and away the largest contract given to a free agent during Bloom’s tenure, as the Red Sox have mostly preferred to look for value in shorter-term free agent deals and lower-profile trades and acquisitions.

Could this be the year that Bloom truly splurges on the open market?  Signing Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander would be a big way of upgrading the pitching staff, or making a push for Aaron Judge would add more fuel to the fire of the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry.  While Bloom’s front office has routinely at least checked in with many of the top free agents of the last few seasons, his propensity to swing trades is another avenue for roster improvement.

For instance, Boston has the financial flexibility to take on a pricey contract from a team looking to cut payroll — whether that big contract belonged to a player the Sox are targeting, or a player whose deal the Sox are willing to eat in order to obtain another player they really want.  With so much money coming off the books, the Red Sox might be able to reload their roster and still stay under next year’s $232MM tax threshold.

Story’s first Boston season wasn’t a triumph, as he hit .238/.303/.434 in 396 plate appearances and played in only 94 games due to a hairline fracture in his wrist and then a late-season heel contusion.  He is the obvious choice to move back to his old shortstop position if Bogaerts leaves, though Story could potentially remain at second base if the Red Sox signed another big-name free agent shortstop (such as Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Dansby Swanson).  Such a scenario may be less likely than Boston spending its biggest money at another position, but if any of the major shortstop are open to an opt-out clause after a couple of seasons a la Story, there could be room for the Red Sox to strike.

Keeping Story at second base might be Boston’s preference over moving him to shortstop and going with the respectable but unspectacular collection of internal second-base options.  The Red Sox reached an early extension with Enrique Hernandez to keep him off the free agent market, but Hernandez might ultimately offer more value as a regular center fielder.  Even if Hernandez only sees limited time in the infield, Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder — who hit very well after joining the Sox on a minors contract — figure to take a good chunk of the playing time.  Another acquisition could be added to this group, and the Red Sox would also love to see former top prospect Jeter Downs get on track at the MLB level after struggling in his last two minor league seasons.

Speaking of top prospects, Triston Casas made his Major League debut in 2022 and had a respectable .766 OPS over his first 95 PA in the Show.  Casas figures to get the bulk of playing time at first base, with Hosmer on hand as a veteran complement since Hosmer isn’t likely to exercise his own opt-out clause.  It’s something of an imperfect combination since both Casas and Hosmer are left-handed hitters, yet DH at-bats could be available if Martinez isn’t retained, or the Red Sox might end up parting ways with Hosmer if another roster upgrade opportunity presents itself.

After Vazquez was traded, the Reese McGuire/Connor Wong tandem delivered quality defense, and McGuire hit well at the plate.  Boston might look to emulate the Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Yankees, and Rays as contenders who prioritize defense and game-calling over offense from the catcher’s position, but Bloom has said that the Red Sox will at least explore other options.  A reunion with Vazquez might not be entirely out of the question, or the Sox might pursue a longer-term catcher like Athletics trade candidate Sean Murphy.

Devers is both the biggest sure thing on Boston’s roster heading into 2023, and also its biggest long-term question mark.  The third baseman is coming off another strong offensive year, but he is also a free agent after the 2023 season, and (as with Bogaerts) extension talks this past spring didn’t yield much progress.  Bloom has been emphatic that Devers isn’t a trade candidate this offseason or in the foreseeable future, and even if more contract negotiations don’t lead to a new deal, it is probable that the Red Sox wouldn’t consider swapping Devers until the trade deadline at the earliest.

Martinez was still an above-average (119 wRC+) force at the plate in 2022, yet his power numbers dropped off and he made a full-on transition to designated hitter, without a single game played in the field.  With Martinez now entering his age-35 season, his time in Boston could be up, as the Red Sox may prefer to rotate multiple players through the DH spot, or give the bulk of DH time to a younger player with more upside.

The outfield is the most logical spot for a new addition, as Hernandez and Alex Verdugo are the only incumbents likely to see a lot of playing time.  Franchy Cordero is a non-tender candidate, former top-100 prospect Jarren Duran has yet to establish himself either offensively or defensively in limited MLB playing time, and Pham’s mutual option (like virtually all mutual options) isn’t likely to be exercised.  Pham might be brought back on a smaller contract and the Red Sox won’t give up on Duran this soon, but one or even two proven regulars would go a long way towards adding more pop to the lineup.

There are plenty of interesting bats available in free agency, ranging from Judge at the top of the outfield market to other prominent names like Brandon Nimmo, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, and more.  Teams like the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Giants also stand out as potential trade partners thanks to their surplus of outfield talent, plus any number of other possibilities could emerge given how other clubs adjust their rosters.

While the Red Sox lineup was lacking in power in 2022, it was still a pretty productive (ninth in runs scored) unit overall, even if some of that production will need to be replaced or upgraded.  A different challenge is faced with the pitching staff, as the Sox didn’t get good results from either the rotation or bullpen, but have to address some potential key departures.

The advanced metrics didn’t much like Michael Wacha’s work last season, but his one-year, $7MM contract ended up being a nice investment for the Red Sox thanks to Wacha’s 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings.  The ageless Rich Hill continued to post solid numbers even in his age-42 season, and another return to Boston is always a possibility, even if Hill has floated the idea of only pitching for part of the season, or pitching for a clear-cut contender.

Re-signing Wacha or Hill might just require one-year deals, but a larger commitment would be necessary to retain Eovaldi, even coming off an injury-hampered season.  Eovaldi was limited to 109 1/3 innings and allowed some of the most hard contact of any pitcher in the league, but still delivered a 3.87 ERA.  The right-hander was an All-Star as recently as 2021, yet Eovaldi’s checkered injury history and the fact that he’s entering his age-33 season might make the Sox wary of signing him to another longer-term contract.

Chris Sale is a cautionary case in this regard, as he has pitched only 48 1/3 regular-season innings over the life of his five-year, $145MM extension (covering the 2020-24 seasons).  The southpaw was limited to only 5 2/3 innings in 2022 due to a variety of injuries, including a stress fracture in his rib, a finger fractured by an Aaron Hicks comebacker, and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident.  While Sale is expected to be ready to go for Spring Training, the Sox can’t be sure exactly what they’re getting next season — just getting Sale back onto a mound would count as a win at this point, let alone getting him back to his old ace form.

Sale, Nick Pivetta, and rookie Brayan Bello are penciled into three rotation spots, while a pair of other young arms in Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford could either be depth options or in competition for a job in Spring Training.  The Red Sox figure to keep at least one spot open in the rotation for a competition, or to give Garrett Whitlock another look as a starter.  However, acquiring two more starters to eat innings and pitch at the front of the rotation would make this entire group look a lot more capable of competing against the AL East’s big offenses.  James Paxton may also be a factor if he (as expected) exercises his $4MM player option in the wake of another injury-marred campaign, yet Paxton has pitched only 21 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, and none at all in 2022 due to a lat strain while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

John Schreiber was one of the bright spots of the season, as the 28-year-old unexpectedly emerged as Boston’s most consistent reliever and a regular ninth-inning choice.  Matt Barnes also got some save opportunities down the stretch, as after a rough start to the season and a stint on the 60-day injured list, Barnes returned from the IL in great form.  Between these two, Whitlock (if he returns to the bullpen), and Ryan Brasier (who pitched much better than his 5.78 ERA would indicate), the Red Sox have some interesting pieces in the pen, even if more depth is certainly needed.  It has never been Bloom’s style to invest too heavily in the pen, so expect more lower-level relief acquisitions rather than a pursuit of a big name like Edwin Diaz.

When the Red Sox finished in last place in 2020, Bloom responded with a big flurry of offseason moves, which provided enough upgrades for the Sox to finish only two games shy of a berth in the 2021 World Series.  Of course, the 2021 team had Bogaerts, Devers, and a resurgent Martinez and Eovaldi all firing on all cylinders, and Devers might be the only member of that group wearing a Boston uniform in 2023.  As aggressive as Bloom has been in reshaping the Red Sox with under-the-radar or mid-tier transactions, some big swings may be necessary to get the Sox back into contention this time around.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds efforts to slice payroll while remaining at least on the periphery of the Wild Card race fell flat. An 11-game losing streak in April set the stage for what would prove to be a dismal season, with Cincinnati tying the Pirates for the third-worst record in the majors. With questions about the extent of ownership’s desired paring of the payroll, the Reds find themselves without a great path back to contention next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $32MM through 2023 (including $7MM buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B: $22MM through 2023 (including $4MM buyout of 2024 club option)

Option Decisions

  • Mike Minor, LHP: $13MM mutual option (Royals responsible for $1MM buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: $1.22MM club option (no buyout)

Total 2023 commitments: $43MM
Total future commitments: $54MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Cessa, Aquino, Buck Farmer, Law, Garcia

Free Agents

The Reds aren’t far removed from their last rebuild. Cincinnati lost 90+ games each season from 2015-18, finishing at the bottom of the NL Central every year. They stockpiled high draft picks along the way, and they began to push forward midway through the 2019 campaign. Despite being out of contention at that year’s deadline, they acquired Trevor Bauer via trade. They followed up by signing Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos to four-year free agent guarantees, setting 2020 as their clear target date for a return to competitiveness.

To a very small extent, the Reds showed some progress that year. They finished 31-29 during the shortened season, qualifying for the expanded playoffs but being swept out of the Wild Card round. Whatever aggressiveness they’d shown the year prior waned in the aftermath of the pandemic season, as the Reds didn’t make any strong efforts to build out the roster over the 2020-21 offseason. They hovered around .500 for most of last year, flirting with Wild Card contention into September but ultimately coming up short. To the dismay of the fanbase, they then set about tearing down the roster as a means of cutting costs.

Over the winter, the Reds shipped out Tucker Barnhart, Wade Miley, Sonny Gray and Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez in a package deal to get out from under the remainder of Suárez’s contract. They watched Castellanos opt out and sign with the Phillies. Cincinnati made a series of late additions, bringing in Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and Hunter Strickland on one-year deals and acquiring Mike Minor from the Royals to backfill the rotation. Their host of subtractions left them with no margin for error if they wished to remain competitive, with very little in the way of depth capable of weathering injuries or underperformance from anticipated contributors. The Reds dealt with plenty of both, and the result was a 62-100 season that again leaves the team near the bottom of the majors.

Getting back to competitiveness in 2023 would require an unexpected renewed willingness from ownership to push spending forward, one which doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. Meeting with reporters last week (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer), general manager Nick Krall indicated the team plans to “come into (2023) in a similar place that we are right now.” While Krall called the team’s results “not acceptable” and indicated the club would add to the roster in some capacity, he also suggested the roster would be composed of a number of young players. Most players early in their career, of course, are playing on pre-arbitration or relatively low arbitration salaries, and Nightengale reported the Reds were likely to further slice payroll this offseason.

Cincinnati entered 2022 with a player payroll in the $114MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Midseason trades of Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle only trimmed that further, and Cincinnati is sure to decline its end of a $13MM mutual option on Minor’s services. They only have $43MM in guaranteed money on the books for next season, with the final seasons of the Joey Votto and Moustakas contracts their only commitments. They’ll owe an additional combined $11MM at the end of the year to buy that duo out, leaving the books completely empty going into 2024.

That figure doesn’t include projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, and the Reds do have 11 players who’ll qualify for that process. Around half that group figures to be non-tendered, though, with utilityman Kyle Farmer headlining the class with a salary in the $6MM range. Even if Cincinnati retains each of Farmer, Nick Senzel, Luis Cessa, Jeff Hoffman, Lucas Sims, Tejay Antone and Justin Dunn, that group shouldn’t combine for much more than $15MM. Precisely where ownership will draw the spending line is unclear, but there should at least be room for a handful of low-cost one-year deals late in the offseason again.

While Krall and his front office will have budgetary constraints in the players they’re targeting, they are free to add at virtually any position on the roster. In his meeting with reporters last week, the front office head suggested nobody has a guaranteed position. “Everyone is going to have to come in and win a roster spot,” Krall said (via Nightengale). “That’s just the way it is. I don’t know if we have a ‘this is going to absolutely be this person’s position on Opening Day.’ I think we have to come in, evaluate where everybody is, and players have to earn those roster spots.”

There’s probably some amount of hyperbole in those comments. It’s hard to envision a scenario where second-year pitchers Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene aren’t in the Opening Day rotation if healthy. Tyler Stephenson will be the #1 catcher, and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India figures to get an opportunity to bounce back from a down ’22 campaign at second base. The Reds do have a few young players who are virtual locks for certain roles to start next season.

To Krall’s point, there aren’t many positions locked down though. Much of the infield is an open question. Votto is a franchise icon and a potential future Hall of Famer, but he hit only .205/.319/.370 over 376 plate appearances before undergoing rotator cuff surgery in August. It’s hard to imagine the Reds taking him out of the primary lineup in what figures to be a non-competitive season regardless, but they could look to curtail his playing time a bit at age 39. Votto is entering the final guaranteed season of the ten-year extension he signed in 2012, and it could well be his final season in a Reds uniform.

India figures to join him on the right side of the infield on most days. The other side of the second base bag is a major question mark. Cincinnati gave some late-season playing time to the combination of José Barrero and Spencer Steer, the latter of whom was acquired from the Twins in the Mahle trade. Both players are 24 years old and came with some top-100 prospect support during their time in the minor leagues. Neither has played well in limited big league time to date. Steer has been below-average, and Barrero had an awful season, both in the majors and at Triple-A.

Steer saw the majority of his time at third base, mixing in some work at first base and at the keystone. Barrero played exclusively at shortstop. Steer has hit well throughout his minor league career and is likely to open the season as the favorite for playing time at the hot corner, but the Reds could start him back in Triple-A Louisville if they feel he’d benefit from further development time. It’s hard to count on Barrero as the Opening Day shortstop after he’s hit .170/.215/.223 through his first 93 big league games. Top prospect Elly De La Cruz has jumped Barrero as the player most likely to be their long-term shortstop. He’ll have to be added to the 40-man roster this winter. De La Cruz isn’t going to start the season in the majors after striking out in more than 30% of his Double-A plate appearances, but he could factor in later in the year. Noelvi Marte is also going to be added to the 40-man this offseason, although he’s yet to reach Double-A and probably won’t play in the majors until 2024 at the earliest.

In the interim, while the Reds would surely love for Barrero to show some of the power-athleticism combination that made him such a well-regarded prospect, they could look to a veteran stopgap at shortstop. Perhaps that’s Kyle Farmer, who has been a capable utility option for two seasons running. The 32-year-old is better suited for a bench role than an everyday job on a contender, but he can hold down shortstop (or third base, if the Reds wanted to give Steer more time in Louisville as well) for a team in transition. There’s a chance the Reds shop Farmer this winter, but he’s projected for a $5.9MM arbitration salary and would have modest trade value after a .255/.315/.386 showing.

Moustakas is also at least a tangential factor in the infield. The veteran left-handed hitter was a productive power bat at his peak, but he’s battled a number of lower half injuries and hit .211/.289/.356 over 491 plate appearances since the start of 2021. One could argue for the Reds to just eat the remainder of Moustakas’ contract and turn his roster spot over to someone else, since they’re certainly not going to be able to shed any notable amount of the $22MM he’s still owed in any event. Yet if he’s still on the roster come Opening Day, Moustakas could find himself in the corner infield/designated hitter mix.

Things aren’t any clearer on the outfield grass. Among players still under club control, Senzel, Aristides Aquino, TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley logged the most outfield action in 2022. Aquino and Senzel again disappointed. Aquino is virtually certain to be non-tendered this offseason. Cincinnati could at least consider the same with Senzel, who now owns a .240/.303/.360 line in over 1000 big league plate appearances. Those rough offensive performances mean he’s projected for a modest $2.2MM arbitration salary, however, and the front office will probably give the former #2 overall pick one more shot. Friedl and Fraley will be back after decent seasons; neither is an obvious everyday player, but each could see fairly regular playing time depending on what other moves the Reds do or do not make.

With both Friedl and Fraley hitting from the left side, a right-handed outfielder could be on the wish list. Chad Pinder, Wil Myers (who’ll be bought out by the Padres), Kevin Pillar and old friend Adam Duvall are among the affordable free agents who’d fit that bill. Pillar and Duvall are both capable of logging some time in center field, although neither is a great defender there at this stage of their careers.

Cincinnati is also likely to bring in a veteran catcher to back up Stephenson. Garcia signed a minor league deal and broke camp last spring, but he didn’t hit well when healthy and lost most of the second half to injury. He’s a non-tender candidate, with the Reds likely to bring in a new experienced backstop to assume a part-time role. Robinson Chirinos, Kevin Plawecki and former Reds Barnhart and Curt Casali are all headed to free agency.

With a number of unproven players likely to assume regular roles, the team will be counting on some to take steps forward. Cincinnati has already parted ways with hitting coach Alan Zinter and will turn to a new voice to guide their young bats. Manager David Bell will return for a fifth season, but a good chunk of his coaching staff will be overhauled.

That’s not the case for pitching coach Derek Johnson and assistant pitching coach Eric Jagers, both of whom are returning. They’ll be working with a number of young players themselves. Lodolo and Greene are former top ten draftees who made their major league debuts early this year. Both missed some time with injuries but showed promise when healthy. Lodolo pitched to a 3.66 ERA with an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate through 19 starts. Greene had a 4.44 ERA as he battled some home run issues, but he punched out 30.9% of batters faced over 24 outings.

They’ll be back at the top of the rotation, and another 2022 rookie could join them in the opening five. Graham Ashcraft made 19 starts this season, pitching fairly well early before tailing off in the final month. He finished with a 4.89 ERA, posting a below-average 15.3% strikeout rate but inducing ground-balls at a stellar 54.5% clip. Ashcraft isn’t a lock for the Opening Day rotation as Lodolo and Greene are, but he looks to have the inside track at a job.

That’s in part a reflection of the uncertainty at the back of the starting staff. Among in-house options, Cessa, Vladimir Gutiérrez, Dunn and Connor Overton led the team in rotation innings. Cessa is a swingman who could be non-tendered. Gutiérrez will miss most or all off next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Dunn lost most of this season to shoulder issues and hasn’t had much MLB success through three seasons. Overton has bounced between a number of teams as a minor league journeyman. Brandon Williamson, acquired from Seattle in the Winker/Suárez trade, walked more than 14% of opponents at Triple-A. Anyone from that group could compete for innings, but penciling two of them into the season-opening rotation behind Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft wouldn’t work.

The Reds will probably dip into the lower tiers of the free agent rotation market as a result. Chad Kuhl, Michael Pineda and Trevor Williams are among a host of back-end starters who’d only cost a few million dollars. The Reds’ hitter-friendly home ballpark could work against their efforts to pursue bounceback candidates, but they can promise a fair bit of opportunity.

There’s a chance for a similar low-cost flier in the bullpen. Cincinnati has had one of the league’s worst relief corps over the past couple seasons. Alexis Díaz was one of the team’s few bright spots in 2022, emerging as a late-game weapon. He’s not likely to repeat this year’s 1.84 ERA with how many fly balls he’s surrendered, but he’s a lock for high-leverage work. 2021 breakout hurler Antone missed all of this season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but he should be ready for Opening Day. Sims, Hoffman and Ian Gibaut are among the returning right-handed options, but the Reds could look for a left-hander.

Cincinnati holds a $1.22MM club option over Justin Wilson, but he’s likely to be let go after undergoing Tommy John surgery this June. Reiver Sanmartin is the only southpaw who finished the year in the MLB bullpen. He had a 2.96 ERA and a 54.3% grounder rate, but he had below-average strikeout and walk numbers. Even if the front office doesn’t go into MLB free agency, adding a left-handed bullpen arm via waivers or on a minor league deal is likely to be on the docket.

While Krall and his staff figure to make some small moves, the additions are likely to be around the margins. The 2023 campaign is going to be another trying season, with the Reds seemingly looking to 2024 and beyond as their more realistic window for contention. Cincinnati has stockpiled a decent amount of minor league talent, partially as a result of the deals that have torn down the MLB roster. Shortly after the trade deadline, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN ranked the Reds’ farm system #9 in the majors. As that upper level talent continues to matriculate to the big leagues and hopefully joins Stephenson, India, Lodolo and Greene, Cincinnati can begin to see their next contending core.

That’ll coincide with the removal of the Votto and the Moustakas contracts from the books. The long-term financial flexibility could allow them to explore extension talks with any of their intriguing young players who are already at the big league level this winter. Even if nothing comes together on that front, it should afford the front office some freedom after 2023 to attack some of the roster’s weaknesses with more urgency. There are glimmers of long-term hope for Cincinnati, but the fanbase looks to be in for another frustrating offseason and rough year before that hope can materialize into legitimate success.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers made some aggressive moves last offseason, hoping that 2022 could be the year their rebuild would end. Unfortunately, that plan failed in spectacular fashion, leading to a late-season shakeup. General manager Al Avila was fired in August and replaced by Giants general manager Scott Harris, who was given the title of president of baseball operations in Detroit. The franchise will be shifting course under new leadership, though it remains to be seen exactly how that will play out.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2023 commitments: $84.65MM
Total future commitments: $239.625MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Tigers have been in rebuild mode for many years, with their last winning season coming in 2016 and their most recent postseason appearance in 2014. After an encouraging finish in 2021, it was decided that it was time to strike. The club gave out big free agent deals to Javy Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez, smaller deals to Chafin and Michael Pineda, in addition to trading for Barnhart and Meadows. It was hoped that those acquisitions could combine with a core of young players to propel Detroit into competing amidst a weak AL Central.

Unfortunately, the club was bound by Murphy’s law in 2022, with the majority of the lineup underperforming and just about every pitcher getting hurt, significantly in many cases. That led to dismal results and a front office shakeup, with Avila packing his things and Harris moving in. Harris has been on the job less than a month, making it tough to predict exactly what he has planned. But there’s no doubt that the agenda is change, in order to steer the club in a better direction. The first domino has already fallen, with Detroit’s amateur scouting director getting dismissed last week. The Tigers eventually finished 66-96, 11 games behind their record last year.

Barnhart has never been a huge threat at the plate but has always earned strong marks for his defense and framing. With the Tigers planning on running out a fairly young pitching staff, there was sense in installing a glove-first option behind the plate. However, Barnhart took a step back at the plate, even relative to his own standards. After hitting .247/.317/.368 last year in Cincinnati, production that was 20% below league average by measure of wRC+, he dropped to .221/.287/.267 this year for a wRC+ of 63.

With Barnhart’s impending free agency, the Tigers will have the option of pivoting behind the plate. Eric Haase was one of the few Tigers to have a nice season in 2022. He hit 14 home runs and slashed .254/.305/.443 for a wRC+ of 112. He crouched behind the plate in 84 games while also playing some left field and got a cameo at first base. He doesn’t get high grades for his catching work though, as Defensive Runs Saved gave him a -9 this year while FanGraphs’ framing metric gave him a -6.6. Detroit could look to the open market for a defensive-minded backstop to pair with Haase, though it’s possible they already have one in Jake Rogers. Scouts have long praised Rogers’ work while donning the tools of ignorance, though he missed all of this season due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in September of 2021. If the club does decide to seek outside help, it will likely be of the short-term variety since it is hoped that their “catcher of the future” is already present in Dillon Dingler, who spent all of this year at Double-A. His defense is considered stronger than his offense, but he hit .238/.333/.419 for a wRC+ of 107 this year, though with a concerning 31.9% strikeout rate. There’s some potential here, but the Tigers could probably fit a veteran like Roberto Pérez or Austin Hedges into the picture.

First base was supposed to a settled matter by now, as Spencer Torkelson cracked the club’s Opening Day roster. He was considered one of the top prospects in the game at the time and seemed to have a chance at cementing himself there for the long haul. His first taste of the majors didn’t go according to plan, however, as he hit .197/.282/.295 through the middle of July and got optioned back to the minors. A September call-up was a bit more promising and led to a .219/.292/.385 line over the final few weeks of the season. That’s still below average by a bit, amounting to a wRC+ of 95, but an improvement, at least.

At second base, the club got a real mixed bag of a season out of Jonathan Schoop. He had a strong season with the glove, as all defensive metrics liked his work, especially Outs Above Average. Schoop’s 27 OAA this year was the highest of any fielder in the league, well beyond the next-best mark of 20 OAA for Dansby Swanson. However, his offensive production mysteriously cratered. After hitting .270/.315/.454 from 2019 to 2021 for a wRC+ of 106, Schoop produced a dismal batting line of .202/.239/.322 this year for a wRC+ of just 57. He’s under contract for one more season and will surely forego an opt-out possibility.

Next to Schoop on the diamond, Javy Báez was supposed to be the club’s stalwart at shortstop after signing a six-year, $140MM contract this past winter. He had a poor showing in the shortened 2020 campaign but had been great in the previous three full seasons, producing above-average work on both sides of the ball. But in his first year as a Tiger, he hit just .238/.278/.393 for a wRC+ of 90. Advanced defensive metrics were also split on his work, with Báez considered to be below-average by DRS and Ultimate Zone Rating, though he did register 2 OAA. He can opt out of his deal after 2023 but would need to have a huge turnaround in order to even consider exercising it. For the Tigers, they will have to hope for better results than they saw this year.

Continuing the pattern around the diamond, third base was another area of disappointment. Over 2020 and 2021, Jeimer Candelario hit 23 home runs, walked in 10.2% of his plate appearances and hit .278/.356/.458 for a wRC+ of 125. But in 2022, his walk rate dropped all the way down to 6% and he slashed .217/.272/.361, wRC+ of 80. He made $5.8MM this year and has one more pass through arbitration remaining. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Candelario to get a bump to the $7MM range for next year, which would be a hefty commitment for Detroit unless they feel 2022 was an aberration and that Candelario will turn things around next year. This year’s crop of free agent third basemen isn’t great, with Nolan Arenado not a consideration for the Tigers even if he does opt out. Brandon Drury will likely get a multi-year deal somewhere that isn’t Detroit. That leaves veteran utility players like Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson and Donovan Solano as potential replacements if the club moves on from Candelario.

Moving to the outfield, we find a similar pile of frustrating results. Alongside Torkelson, the club’s other much-hyped prospect coming into the season was Riley Greene. He seemed like he had the chance to crack the Opening Day roster just like Torkelson, but he fractured his foot during Spring Training and didn’t make his debut until June. He ended up posting a line of .253/.321/.362 in 93 games for a wRC+ of 98. Greene just turned 22 and still has plenty of time to take another step forward, but looking strictly at 2022, he was just a hair below league average.

Austin Meadows was supposed to have one of the corners spoken for, after coming over from the Rays in a trade for Isaac Paredes and a draft pick. Unfortunately, he ended up missing significant time due to vertigo-like symptoms, COVID-19, Achilles strains and mental health concerns. In the end, he only got into 36 games and hit around a league average level, which is below what he accomplished in Tampa. Robbie Grossman was set to take another slot in the second season of his two-year deal with Detroit. He hit 23 home runs in 2021 and produced a line of .239/.357/.415 for a wRC+ of 116 but then took a big step backward this year. In 83 games with the Tigers, he hit just a pair of long balls and slashed .205/.313/.282 for a wRC+ of 78 before getting flipped to Atlanta at the deadline.

Akil Baddoo was looking to build off a strong debut in 2021 where he hit .259/.330/.436 for a 110 wRC+, but he also swooned this year, hitting .204/.289/.269, wRC+ of 65. Greene, Meadows and Baddoo are all set to be back next year, as will rookie corner outfielder/DH Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter had a breakout season in the minors and hit six homers in his first 31 MLB games late in the year. Still, the Tigers could grab a veteran to bolster the group, given the lack of certainty with anyone in the current mix. Players like Ben Gamel, Corey Dickerson or Tyler Naquin would be logical fits to take some playing time and hopefully turn themselves into deadline trade candidates.

Miguel Cabrera, in his age-39 season, didn’t take the field at all this year, limited to designated hitter duty only. He and Tiger fans got to enjoy him cracking the 3,000 hit club in April, but it was largely uninspiring apart from that. He hit .254/.305/.317 for a wRC+ of just 79, 13 points below his previous career low. He’s still under contract for one more season.

While the lineup was characterized by underperformance across the board, the story of the pitching staff was an unfathomable litany of injuries. Spencer Turnbull required Tommy John surgery late in 2021 and was already expected to miss all of this year. But the Tigers spent big to bring in Eduardo Rodríguez to be a veteran anchor next to exciting youngsters like Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and others. However, the Tigers didn’t get a full healthy season from anyone and ended up leaning on veteran journeymen and depth options. 31-year-old Drew Hutchison and his career ERA of 4.89 ended up second on the team in starts with 18, with only Skubal able to edge past that mark at 21.

Rodriguez missed time due to a ribcage sprain and then a personal issue, making only 17 starts on the year. Mize was only able to take the ball twice before hitting the IL and eventually requiring Tommy John. Skubal made 21 starts before requiring flexor tendon surgery. Manning missed significant time with shoulder issues, eventually returning but then was scratched from his final start due to a forearm strain. He finished the year making just 12 starts and he and Skubal are both question marks for the start of next season. Given all those issues, veteran starting pitching would be a sensible target this winter for Detroit. They surely won’t break the bank for Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander, but someone like Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies or Johnny Cueto could eat some innings while the younger guys get healthy.

If there’s one area where 2022 wasn’t a total disaster, it was the bullpen. 10 different relievers pitched 21 innings or more for the Tigers  and each one registered an ERA under 4.00. Almost that entire group could be back next year, as most are controllable via arbitration or have yet to even reach their arb years. The only exceptions are Chafin, who has one year left on his contract but has an opt-out clause, and Michael Fulmer, who was traded to the Twins at the deadline and is an impending free agent.

Fulmer was the only member of the bullpen dealt away at the deadline, but the Tigers could field trade offers on that group again this winter. Joe Jiménez and José Cisnero stand out as particularly logical candidates to be moved with only one season of arbitration-eligibility remaining. Hard-throwing southpaw Gregory Soto and right-hander Alex Lange each have three-plus seasons of remaining control and will be harder to pry away, but they’re the highest value trade candidates in the Detroit bullpen.

Payroll wise, the Tigers aren’t in terrible shape, despite their aggressive offseason one year ago. They ran out an Opening Day figure of $135MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was a big jump from recent seasons but still well shy of their last competitive window, with the club spending around $200MM in 2016 and 2017. There’s only about $85MM committed to next year, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That number doesn’t include salaries for arbitration-eligible players, but a handful of that group are non-tender candidates after such a poor campaign. There’s certainly room for more aggressive moves if the club sees an opportunity to make them.

However, a compelling argument could be made that the wisest path forward for Harris is to slowplay things for a year. He can take some time to get to know the organization, figure out what he considers to be its strengths and weaknesses. He can get more clarity on the health situations of their many injured pitchers. They can see if Greene and Torkelson can find another gear now that they’ve gotten their feet wet at the big league level. And they will also have a big chunk of payroll space opening up when Cabrera’s mammoth deal is finally out of the way, leaving Báez and Rodríguez as the only contracts on the books for 2024, assuming Báez doesn’t opt out. We can’t know for sure how Harris will operate since he’s only just gotten the job, but with so much uncertainty all over the roster, it would be surprising if he tried to fix absolutely everything in one offseason. Tiger fans that are still around have already been very patient with this rebuild, but it’s likely they will continue to be tested for another season at least.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals’ 107 losses in 2022 tied the second-highest loss total in the franchise’s 54-year history in Washington and Montreal.  While the club hopes for some improvement next year, it may still be a relatively quiet offseason as the Nats continue their rebuilding path.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Nelson Cruz, DH: $16MM mutual option for 2023 ($3MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

With the Lerner family expected to sell the Nationals, the ownership question is certainly the biggest-picture issue hanging over the team’s offseason.  Details about the potential sale have been in relatively short supply, which means that it could still be some time before a buyer emerges, and before the sale is officially approved by the league.

Until a new owner is officially confirmed, the Nats are in something of a limbo, though their direction was already clear even before the Lerners announced their exploration of a sale in April 2022.  The offloading of veteran talent began at the 2021 trade deadline (highlighted by the Nationals’ move of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers), and Washington was again a big seller at the last deadline, with Juan Soto and Josh Bell dealt to the Padres in another headline swap.

Those two blockbusters and a collection of other deals brought a wealth of young talent into the District, to the point that the Nationals hope a good chunk of their next winning core is already in place.  Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, James Wood, Lane Thomas, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Robert Hassell III are all viewed as potential long-term contributors, and the progress of this group (plus other homegrown products like Luis Garcia and Cade Cavalli, among others) in 2023 may help president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo determine the rebuild’s timeline.

During the last two offseasons, Rizzo’s front office targeted veterans on short-term contracts, first in an attempt to return to contention in 2021, and then mostly about filling roster holes last winter.  That strategy is likely to continue this offseason, though it can’t be assumed that the Nationals will only pursue stopgap-esque players.  Even with the arrow directly pointed in the rebuild direction last offseason, the Nats still spent $15MM on a one-year guarantee for Nelson Cruz, as the club was hopeful that Cruz could at least be a trade chip come deadline time.

Unfortunately for Cruz and the Nats, time finally seemed to catch up to the veteran slugger, as Cruz’s .234/.313/.337 slash line over 507 plate appearances resulted in his worst OPS since 2007.  It is possible that Cruz’s upcoming eye surgery will correct the vision problems that certainly contributed to this decline, but the Nats aren’t likely to take the $13MM risk (the cost of exercising their end of Cruz’s mutual option) on Cruz bouncing back at age 42.

It also seems like Washington has its first base/DH situation somewhat settled heading into 2023, so there isn’t an ideal spot for Cruz on the roster.  Luke Voit was the most experienced player who came to the Nationals in the Soto/Bell trade, and though Voit didn’t excel after the deal, his 102 wRC+ (from 22 homers and a .226/.308/.402 over 568 PA) for the entire season was still slightly above the league average.

Voit’s projected $8.2MM arbitration price tag is a little hefty, and it isn’t out of the question that the Nationals might non-tender him in search of a cheaper first baseman/DH type.  Voit was such a productive bat with the Yankees in 2018-20 that even though he has been more average in the last two seasons, the Nats might give him another chance to bounce back and potentially become a July trade chip.

Remarkably, Voit is more of a question mark in next season’s first base/DH mix than Joey Meneses, a longtime journeyman whose career took him to Mexico, Japan, and several stops in the minor leagues.  Signed to a minor league deal by the Nationals last winter, Meneses made his MLB debut on Aug. 2, and then surprisingly took the league by storm.  From Aug. 2 until the end of the season, only 11 qualified hitters in all of baseball topped Meneses’ 156 wRC+, as the 30-year-old hit .324/.367/.563 with 13 homers.

Meneses did benefit from a big .371 BABIP, and 240 plate appearances isn’t a big enough sample size to suddenly tag the 30-year-old as a surefire superstar.  That said, Meneses’ numbers are hard to ignore, and his 47.1% hard-hit rate is a sign that his inflated BABIP wasn’t sheer luck.  His unexpected breakout is already a great story, and from the Nationals’ perspective, there isn’t really any reason not to go with Meneses as the projected Opening Day first baseman.

If Meneses keeps hitting, he could even be a late-blooming addition to the Nationals’ rebuild plans, or perhaps a sneaky-valuable trade chip at the deadline if the Nats wanted to sell high.  Trading Meneses this winter can’t be ruled out, if another team is enamored enough by those 240 PA and Washington gets a good enough offer.  Such a swap would leave the Nats looking for more first base depth, however, and Meneses’ 2022 performance was so strong that the Nationals surely prefer to hang onto him a bit longer to see exactly what they have.

Most of the other infield spots are set, with Ruiz behind the plate, Abrams at shortstop, and Garcia at second base.  Ildemaro Vargas played well over 53 games of infield duty, and the Nats might just retain him at a projected $1.1MM arbitration cost to either serve as the utility infielder, or to take at least a platoon role at third base.

Carter Kieboom missed the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery, robbing the former top prospect of another opportunity to finally cement himself as a big league regular.  Kieboom has hit only .197/.304/.285 over 414 PA from 2019-21, and while that sample size still isn’t huge, he’s already 25 years old and now coming off a lost year.  The rebuild allows the Nationals some extra patience in giving Kieboom more time, and ideally, he’d return healthy and emerge as the top third base option over the course of the season.  Rizzo has already stated that Kieboom will compete for the job next spring.

If not Kieboom, Vargas is on hand to handle third base, and the Nationals could explore adding another multi-position veteran for further depth in both the infield and perhaps the outfield.  Jace Peterson, Donovan Solano, or old friend Josh Harrison could be options for this role on the free-agent market, and similarly lower-cost players could also be fits for D.C. in trade talks.  Re-signing Cesar Hernandez is a possibility, though he didn’t hit much in his first year with Washington.

Thomas is basically the only player assured of regular playing time in the outfield, though Thomas’ first full year in the District saw him deliver only a 96 wRC+ (.241/.301/.404 in 548 PA).  Meneses played some right field and could also be a factor on the grass, though defensive metrics suggest that Meneses is much better suited to a first-base role.  Late-season waiver claim Alex Call played well enough that the Nats will likely give him another look in a part-time role, and the Nats might simply just again pair Call and Yadiel Hernandez together as a left-field platoon.  Thomas’ ability to play center or right field gives Washington some flexibility in determining how they’ll address the other outfield spot.

This could include parting ways with former top prospect Victor Robles, who struggled at the plate for the third consecutive season.  Robles at least had an excellent defensive year, and at the cost of a projected $2.5MM arbitration salary, the Nationals might deem that an acceptable number for a plus glove in center field.  Robles’ defensive prowess would give the Nats something to market in trade talks before they consider a non-tender, and Robles’ prospect pedigree might interest a team who could view him as a change-of-scenery candidate.

Even if Robles was retained, the outfield still looks like a possible landing spot for a veteran hitter on a one-year deal, with any of Robles, Hernandez, or Call relegated to backup duty.  Again with an eye towards trading this player at the deadline, Washington could be a fit for such free agents as Michael Brantley, Tommy Pham, or Corey Dickerson.  Since the Nationals had the worst record in baseball, they also get some extra leverage in waiver priority to adding players who might get designated for assignment.

Moving to the rotation, Gray had a lot of struggles in his first full MLB season, allowing a league-high 38 homers over his 148 2/3 innings of work.  Gore got off to a great start in his rookie season, though started to struggle in June, and then didn’t pitch in the majors at all after July 25 due to elbow inflammation (and hasn’t officially made his debut in a Nats uniform).  Cavalli also had some shoulder inflammation late in the season, which limited him to a single outing in his first taste of the majors.

While not really a sterling year for any of the trio, the Nationals can only hope for better health and more improvement, as drastic improvement is needed from the starting pitching corps.  Washington had arguably the worst rotation in baseball in 2022, but the Nats into next season with a tentative top five already in place — Gray, Gore, Cavalli, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg.

Naturally, there isn’t much certainty in this group.  Corbin ate 152 2/3 innings but posted only a 6.31 ERA and a blue-tinged Statcast page, although his 4.34 SIERA indicates that he was hurt to some extent by the Nationals’ porous defense.  Still, this marks three straight subpar seasons for Corbin, who is still owed $59MM over the final two years of his six-year, $140MM contract.  Unless the Nationals can move Corbin for another team’s undesirable contract, the veteran left-hander holds no trade value, leaving the Nats to hope he can regain any of his old form over the final two years of the deal.

The situation is even more dire with Strasburg, who appeared in just one game last season, and has pitched only 31 1/3 total innings since the start of the 2020 season.  As thoracic outlet syndrome continues to plague Strasburg’s career, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to reliably pitch again, let alone pitch effectively or get anywhere close to his past All-Star form.

There is certainly plenty of cause for the Nationals to augment this projected rotation with some starting depth.  Erick Fedde might be tendered a contract simply due to this need for depth, though Fedde has also struggled to deliver results.  Advanced metrics didn’t care for Anibal Sanchez’s performance in 2022, but the veteran’s comeback had the solid bottom-line result of a 4.28 ERA over 69 1/3 innings.  He could serve as pitching depth on a minor league pact.  Whether Sanchez or another experienced pitcher or two, any new arms acquired would (once again) profile as possible deadline trade candidates, and would likely be on the more inexpensive side.

Some help will be needed for the bullpen, as Erasmo Ramirez and Steve Cishek are both free agents, and Tanner Rainey will miss most or all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery.  Kyle Finnegan pitched well in the closer’s role after Rainey was injured, so Finnegan probably has the inside track for ninth-inning work in 2023, though Washington might seek out a veteran with closing experience to provide Finnegan with competition.  Lefty Sean Doolittle has already expressed interest in a reunion with the Nats after missing most of the season due to elbow surgery.

Unexpectedly, the Nationals’ bullpen was something of a bright spot in the dismal 107-loss season, after the relief corps was so often a weak link for the Nats’ contending teams in the past decade.   They’ll return four relievers — Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr., Hunter Harvey and Andres Machado — who had at least 39 innings with ERAs of 3.51 or better.  Anyone from that group could be considered a trade candidate this winter, but it’s unlikely any of the four would draw a massive return.

Without any top-tier trade options remaining on the roster, it could be that a lot of the heaviest lifting is over with the rebuild.  The Nationals will now have to play the waiting game and see which of their current young players emerge in the majors, and which longer-term prospects continue to develop and climb the minor league ladder.  Since any additions to the MLB roster are likely to be relatively mild in nature,  the results of the ownership search will probably generate the biggest headlines of the Nationals’ offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers spent half a billion dollars last winter and still lost 94 games in 2022. The focus was always more on the 2023 season than the 2022 campaign, given the timeline of the team’s top prospects. Still, ownership likely expected better results, as evidenced by the surprising August dismissal of president of baseball operations Jon Daniels — who’d been the third-longest-tenured baseball ops leader in the game. It’s now general manager Chris Young’s ship to steer.

Guaranteed Contracts

2023 commitments: $80MM
Total long-term commitments: $482.5MM

Option Decisions

  • Jose Leclerc, RHP: $6MM club option for 2023 with a $750K buyout (contract also contains $6.25MM club option for 2024)
  • Kole Calhoun, OF: $5.5MM club option for 2023 (no buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Player (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

With Young installed as the baseball operations leader, the Rangers don’t need to go through a time-consuming search for a new front office boss. However, Young’s first order of business will be to determine whether interim manager Tony Beasley, who stepped up when manager Chris Woodward was fired (just two days before Daniels), is right for the permanent job. The 55-year-old Beasley’s time with the Rangers organization predates Young by years; Young, in fact, was still active as a player and won a World Series ring with the Royals in 2015 while Beasley was just getting started as a Rangers coach.

Given his eight-year stint on the Rangers’ staff, Beasley will likely have a role of some sort offered to him, even if he’s not tabbed as the long-term skipper. It’s common, however, for a newly minted general manager or president of baseball operations to want to bring in his own field staff. Young has already interviewed Beasley, but he’ll presumably be just one of several candidates.

Whether it’s Beasley or an outside hire, the new manager and Young will be tasked with finding a new pitching coach, as co-pitching coaches Doug Mathis and Brendan Sagara were ousted earlier this month. As with any managerial change — particularly one on the heels of a disappointing season — it’s possible the switch could bring about further turnover on the coaching staff.

As far as the roster is concerned, left-hander Martin Perez’s future is the first piece of the offseason puzzle for Young and his staff to consider. Originally signed by the Rangers more than a decade ago, the now-31-year-old Perez ranked as one of the game’s top overall prospects while rising through the minor league ranks. He had a solid, if unspectacular rookie campaign as a 22-year-old, and the organization saw enough to lock Perez up on a four-year extension with multiple club options.

As is too often the case with pitchers, injuries set in and quickly derailed the promising start to Perez’s career. He had Tommy John surgery in 2014, missed most of the 2014-15 seasons as a result, and upon returning settled in as a fifth starter — never recreating the 3.62 ERA that led to a sixth-place Rookie of the Year finish for him in 2013. Perez bounced from Texas, to Minnesota, to Boston, soaking up innings at the back of the rotation and generally beginning to look the part of a journeyman.

A one-year, $4MM reunion with Texas last offseason was met with a collective eye roll by many longtime Rangers fans, but Perez not only rebounded — he turned in far and away the best season of his career. Leaning more heavily on his changeup, Perez made 32 starts and piled up 196 1/3 innings with career-best marks in ERA (2.89), strikeout rate (20.6%), FIP (3.27) and Statcast’s “expected” ERA (3.59) — among other categories. Along the way, both he and Young publicly expressed interest in working out an extension, and the two parties are set to meet this week to discuss just that. Given Perez’s strong desire to remain in place and the Rangers’ arguably stronger need for reliable pitching, it seems quite possible that Perez won’t even reach the open market.

Even if the Rangers are able to secure a new contract with Perez — which would surely be a multi-year deal at a much heftier price than this year’s $4MM rate — that’ll just be the beginning of the team’s offseason quest for pitching. Re-signing Perez will give the club some direly needed dependable innings, but even an optimistic projection of Perez’s 2023-24 seasons would bake in some regression from this year’s peak performance. It’s sensible to view Perez as a No. 3/4 starter, but there’s a need for higher-impact arms to lead the starting staff, with or without Perez.

At the moment, right-hander Jon Gray is the only clearly above-average starting pitcher on the Texas staff. Signed to a four-year, $56MM contract last winter, Gray made 24 starts and pitched to a 3.96 ERA through 127 1/3 innings, striking out 25.7% of his opponents against a strong 7.5% walk rate. He had three brief IL stints, all unrelated to his arm (blister, knee strain, oblique strain), but was a solid performer with even better secondary metrics (3.80 FIP, 3.59 xERA, 3.46 SIERA).

Right-hander Dane Dunning, acquired two years ago in the trade that sent Lance Lynn to the White Sox, has proven a capable back-of-the-rotation arm, pitching to a 4.48 ERA in 271 frames since the trade. Both Dunning’s strikeout and walk rate are a bit worse than league average, though he offsets some of that with a very strong 53.6% grounder rate. So long as the hip surgery that ended Dunning’s season doesn’t impact him moving forward, he can be slotted into the fourth or fifth spot on the starting staff.

Righty Glenn Otto and lefties Taylor Hearn and Cole Ragans were the only other Rangers pitchers to work 40 or more innings out of the rotation this season, but the results were lacking. Hearn, who finished the year with a 5.13 ERA in 100 innings, might look like a non-tender candidate at first glance but posted a 3.51 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 41 innings as a reliever. That figures to be his role moving forward. Otto made 27 starts with a 4.64 ERA but more concerning under-the-hood numbers (18.2% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate, 5.21 FIP). Ragans posted a 4.95 ERA in 40 innings with just a 15.5% strikeout rate.

Suffice it to say, the Rangers have a clear, pressing need for both innings and, more importantly, for a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. The free-agent market this winter features several such arms, and it stands to reason that the rumors connecting longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to his hometown Rangers will again swirl this winter. For the bulk of the 2021-22 offseason, it was believed that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers or sign with the Rangers, allowing him to live in his Dallas-area home, commute to the park and spend more time with his wife and four young children.

Beyond Kershaw, the market will also include names like Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom, all of whom will opt out of their current contracts and return to the open market. Verlander and deGrom might prefer to sign with surefire contenders, but Rodon will be hitting the market in search of the first long-term deal of his career. If the Rangers are willing to put forth another nine-figure offer to lure a marquee free agent, he’s a viable target. Alternatively, Texas seems like a logical candidate to pursue star Japanese righty Kodai Senga, who boasts a 2.39 ERA over his past four NPB seasons, features a triple-digit heater, and is expected to be available to MLB clubs this winter.

That might seem unfathomable to some onlookers after the aggressive manner in which the Rangers spent last year, but despite doling out a half-billion dollars to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Rangers’ payroll outlook is relatively clean. Texas has just $80MM in contractual guarantees in 2023 and one of the smallest arbitration classes in MLB. By 2024, they have just $74MM on the books, and because each of the Gray, Seager and Semien contracts were slightly front-loaded, those commitments won’t be quite as cumbersome in their later stages as the typical free-agent deal (which is oftentimes backloaded).

The Rangers ran a payroll of more than $142MM this season and have previously taken that number to nearly $175MM. Between that history of spending and the fact they’re still in the early years of a new stadium, it stands to reason that the Rangers will be able to spend aggressively this winter, even after last year’s spending spree. Young, in fact, has already publicly stated that owner Ray Davis has given the green light to increase payroll with the specific focus of improving the pitching staff.

If this feels like a lot of focus on the rotation thus far, well… it is. That’s due both to the acuteness of the need and also due to the fact that the Rangers’ roster is perhaps more rounded than one might expect of a 68-win team. Picking up Jose Leclerc’s $6MM option is an easy call after he returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 2.83 ERA in 47 2/3 innings. He’ll be joined by fellow Tommy John returnee Jonathan Hernandez, 2022 team saves leader Joe Barlow, the aforementioned Hearn and lefty Brock Burke, who had one of the most quietly dominant rookie showings in recent memory: 82 1/3 innings, 1.97 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate.

Certainly, there’s room to add to the relief corps. Journeyman Matt Moore, like Perez, returned for a second stint in Texas this past season and (also like Perez) posted one of the finest seasons of his career. Moore, another once-vaunted starting pitching prospect who never fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, broke out as a successful high-leverage reliever this season, pitching 74 innings of 1.95 ERA ball. As with Perez, there’s good reason for the Rangers to want him back, but Moore should have no shortage of interest in free agency. Whether it’s Moore or another veteran, it’s fair to expect Young & Co. to bring in some reinforcements in the ’pen.

Turning to the lineup, things are mostly set. Seager and Semien will, of course, form the middle-infield duo. Former Rays prospect Nathaniel Lowe turned in a second half for the ages, elevating his stock from quality regular to potential All-Star. Lowe hit .339/.399/.566 following the All-Star break, and while his poor defensive ratings could portend an eventual move to designated hitter, he’s going to rack up as many plate appearances as possible.

Top prospect Josh Jung got a late-season look at third base, and although he struggled in 102 plate appearances, there’s not much left for him to prove in Triple-A. Jung missed most of the season following shoulder surgery but beat his originally projected recovery timeline by a notable margin and returned with a flourish in Triple-A Round Rock. He’s still appeared in just 58 total Triple-A games, so perhaps the organization will want him to spend a bit more time there, but Jung’s .316/.389/.598 batting line at that level doesn’t suggest there’s too much more minor league seasoning required.

Behind the plate, the Rangers entrusted Jonah Heim with the lion’s share of the workload and figure to do so again in 2022. While his .227/.298/.399 batting line isn’t going to win him any awards, Heim smacked 16 home runs and graded out as one of MLB’s top defensive catchers. Former Twins catcher Mitch Garver, the presumptive regular on Opening Day, missed most of the season with a flexor strain that eventually required surgery. He should be healthy again in 2023, but Garver has more than enough bat to mix in as a designated hitter while shouldering a lesser portion of the catching workload than Heim.

Former top prospect Sam Huff gives the Rangers the option of carrying three catching options on the big league roster, and former Royals prospect Meibrys Viloria is also still on the 40-man roster after a strong year in Triple-A — though he’ll be out of options next year.

The window is open for the Rangers to add a veteran corner infield/designated hitter option, but there’s enough depth that they shouldn’t deem it an absolute need. A veteran catcher on a non-roster deal — particularly if Viloria doesn’t hold his 40-man spot — could also be an option. It’s possible Kevin Plawecki will fill this role; Beasley praised Plawecki’s clubhouse presence when explaining the team’s rationale for bringing in a recently released pending free agent with under two weeks remaining in the season.

More broadly, however, if there’s a clear spot in the lineup where the Rangers could invest, it’s in the outfield. Adolis Garcia has cemented his spot in the outfield mix since being acquired from the Cardinals (for cash) prior to the 2021 season, belting 56 homers and swiping 41 bases while posting standout defensive metrics in both center field and right field. The Rangers would surely prefer an improvement on his .293 OBP in that time, but Garcia’s blend of power, speed and defense have generally offset that deficiency.

Elsewhere in the outfield, however, things are more open. Leody Taveras had a decent showing in center field, and fleet-footed rookie Bubba Thompson stole 18 bases despite tallying just 181 plate appearances. That said, Thompson hit only .265/.302/.312, and even that below-average output (77 wRC+) included a grisly 30.9% strikeout rate while being buoyed by a .389 BABIP he’s unlikely to sustain. Taveras’ .344 BABIP mark isn’t as suspect, but if it dips even slightly, his already tepid offense could become untenable.

There are other options on the roster, including 25-year-old Josh Smith, 27-year-old Nick Solak and 28-year-old Eli White. Smith, however, didn’t replicate his strong Triple-A numbers in the Majors. Solak will be out of minor league options next year and might well have played his way off the 40-man roster, whether it be via non-tender or trade. (He did have a solid showing in Round Rock.) White profiles best as a fourth outfielder.

If the Rangers prefer to find an outfield upgrade on the free-agent market, there’s no shortage of options. Brandon Nimmo headlines center field options, but Garcia’s defensive prowess — plus the presence of Taveras — don’t box the Rangers into searching for a center fielder only. Corner options range from clear multi-year candidates like Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Haniger to potentially shorter-term veterans like Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley. There’s enough of an outfield need and enough spending capacity to warrant an obligatory Aaron Judge mention, but it’s hard to envision Judge realistically landing in Texas with such a pronounced need for pitching and with last year’s Seager/Semien mega-deals still being so fresh.

The alternate route for the Rangers to explore, be it for outfield or pitching help, is the trade market. Texas has a quality farm from which to deal, ranking sixth on Baseball America’s midseason ranking of MLB’s minor league systems. Given the need for pitching, one would imagine it’d be hard to deal top prospects/former first-round picks like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Cole Winn. That said, the Rangers still have plenty of position prospects who are blocked long-term on the big league roster and/or who are far enough from the Majors that Young and his staff would consider dealing them in an effort to put a winner on the field now. The aforementioned Smith, outfielder Evan Carter, infielder Ezequiel Duran, and infielders Luisangel Acuna and Justin Foscue would all hold varying levels of value.

Certainly, there’s more than enough value in the Texas system to acquire a controllable outfielder, but the Rangers are also deep enough in minor league talent they can make a compelling offer for virtually any starting pitcher that hits the trade market. A lot will need to go right in 2023 for Texas to reverse course, but this is a team that already ranked eighth in the Majors in home runs (198) and 12th in runs scored (707). There are some organic improvements to the offense on the horizon, and Young will now try to pull the right strings with the pitching staff and in the outfield to position Texas as a surprise postseason contender in 2023.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Pirates-centric live chat on 10-19-22.  Read the transcript here.

2022 went about as expected for the Pirates, who made very little effort to add to the team in the previous offseason. Instead, it was another year of letting their young players get their feet wet in the big leagues, with some encouraging results in that department.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B: $60MM through 2029 (including buyout of 2030 club option)
  • Bryan Reynolds, OF: $6.75MM through 2023 (with two remaining arbitration years after that)

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

The Bucs head into this offseason with very little on the books, as the Ke’Bryan Hayes extension is the only firm commitment. Bryan Reynolds avoided arbitration in April by agreeing to a two-year deal for 2022 and 2023, with a couple of passes through arbitration still to come after that. That’s only $16.75MM on the ledger for next year, which will be nudged up slightly by a couple of modest arbitration salaries from those that are tendered contracts. Otherwise, the payroll is fairly wide open for any additions the club wants to make.

They have previously run payrolls in the $100MM range but have been closer to $50MM while rebuilding in the past few years, according to numbers from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves them plenty of room to work with, though they will probably lean towards modest additions, if last winter is any precedent. A year ago, the club handed out a series of one-year deals to veterans like Roberto Pérez, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Heath Hembree, José Quintana, Jake Marisnick, Daniel Vogelbach and Andrew Knapp, none for higher than $5MM.

Of course, free agency isn’t the thing that Pittsburgh fans will look to for hope. The club’s prospects and other young players are the main event here, with lots of reasons for excitement in that department. Hayes has already established himself as a mainstay at the hot corner, able to provide a floor of elite defense even if his bat is still lacking. Last year, first full season, he hit .257/.316/.373. That production amounted to a wRC+ of 87, or 13% below league average. Still, he was able to produce 2.0 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs due to his excellent glovework. It was another similar season here in 2022, as Hayes hit .244/.314/.345 for a wRC+ of 88. But that subpar offense was paired with the best third base defense in the game, as Hayes produced 18 Outs Above Average, the top mark at the hot corner and trailing only Jonathan Schoop and Dansby Swanson for tops among all position players. Defensive Runs Saved is even more complimentary, as Hayes’s 24 DRS was the best of any position player across the league. Hayes also stole 20 bags, allowing him to produce 3.0 fWAR without adding much with the bat. He is still just 25 and could still be developing at the plate, which gives him the potential to be one of the most impactful players in the game if he takes a step forward in that department. Even if he doesn’t, he’s proven he can be a valuable player even with modest offensive contributions.

Next to Hayes on the infield is Oneil Cruz, who got a cup of coffee last year but truly debuted here in 2022. The young Cruz, who turned 24 this week, has some wrinkles in his game but has some of the most exciting elements as well. His Statcast page has blood red splotches thanks to his tremendous exit velocities and sprint speed. He also has one of the strongest throwing arms among infielders in the game. Everything he does is at an elite speed, from the way he runs and throws to the way he smashes the ball to smithereens. However, there are some areas where he is still figuring things out. One such area is plate discipline, with Cruz walking at a below-average 7.8% rate this year and striking out in a huge 34.9% of his plate appearances. Among batters with at least 350 plate appearances this year, only Joey Gallo and Chris Taylor struck out at a higher clip. Despite that, he was still above average at the dish overall, hitting .233/.294/.450 for a wRC+ of 106. Another area of uncertainty is defense, where Cruz is still an unknown commodity. There’s no real precedent for a shortstop like him, given his 6’7″ frame. The initial reviews on the experiment are mixed, with Cruz earning -9 OAA this year and a -7.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating, while DRS was kinder and gave Cruz a +1. He is still young and has less than one year of MLB experience at this point, so it’s possible Cruz could still develop. But given his speed and arm strength, he would likely make an excellent outfielder in the future if he doesn’t stick at short. With the Pirates unlikely to be contending for a while, they can keep the experiment going and see how Cruz responds next year.

While Hayes and Cruz should have the left side of the diamond spoken for, the right side is much less concrete. Rodolfo Castro, Kevin Newman, Ji Hwan Bae and Tucupita Marcano have been splitting the second base duties over the past few months, with no one seeming to run away with the job. Castro has shown some potential this year, hitting 11 home runs in 71 games and batting .233/.299/.427 overall for a wRC+ of 102. Newman took a step forward from 2021’s awful year at the plate but was still below average in the end. Last year, he hit .226/.265/.309 for a 53 wRC+ but got up to .274/.316/.372 and a wRC+ of 94 here in 2022. He’ll be due an arbitration raise on this year’s $1.95MM salary, though the club could just move on and non-tender him. Bae was promoted near the end of the season but has shown a potential to impact the game with his speed. He hit .289/.362/.430 for a 112 wRC+ in 108 Triple-A games this year, adding 30 steals in the process. In ten MLB games, he hit .333/.405/.424 while swiping another three bags. Marcano’s been up and down this year, playing well in the minors but not so well in the show. It’s possible the Bucs have an answer at the keystone in here somewhere, but all of these guys also play other positions, giving them the flexibility to pivot based on how things develop.

First base is even more wide open at this point, as most of the playing time this year has gone to guys who have already moved on or are about to. Yoshi Tsutsugo, Michael Chavis, Josh VanMeter, Yu Chang, Bligh Madris and Kevin Padlo all saw some time at first base this year but none of them are on the roster anymore. Ben Gamel has played a couple games there recently but is headed for free agency soon. That leaves the club with multi-positional options like Zack Collins and Diego Castillo on the depth chart going into next year, though it’s possible they bring in another low-cost free agent or waiver claim to take over here. Some of the free agent first baseman that likely won’t cost too much include Jesús Aguilar and Miguel Sanó.

In the outfield, there’s one firm building block in Reynolds. Despite constant trade rumors, the club has held firm and kept him around as part of the team. There’s a bit of a ticking clock, as Reynolds has just three years of team control remaining at this point. Though rebuilding teams can shed their embarrassing skin and become exciting in a hurry, as this year’s Orioles showed. They also held onto their center field trade candidate in Cedric Mullins and now seem poised to use him as part of contending teams for the next few seasons. The Bucs will hope to do the same with Reynolds. He had a third straight successful full season, hitting 27 home runs and batting .262/.345/.461 for a wRC+ of 125.

Who lines up next to Reynolds on the grass is a more open question. Bae has spent some time in the outfield and could wind up here if he doesn’t get the second base job. There’s Jack Suwinski, who hit 19 homers but also struck out 30.6% of the time and hit .202/.298/.411 overall for a wRC+ of 100. Miguel Andújar, recently claimed off waivers from the Yankees, could finally get the run of extended playing time he never got in the Bronx. Since his 2018 debut, he’s dealt with injuries and been relegated to a depth piece, mashing in the minors but struggling in brief stints in the majors. Castillo and Marcano could be in this mix as well, alongside Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty and other depth pieces.

Behind the plate, Pérez was injured early in the season and the club used Jason Delay and Tyler Heineman at the end of the year. Neither of those two have much experience and both are glove-first types who are better suited for a backup role. It’s likely the club fortifies this position with a veteran addition, with Pérez recently expressing his belief that he could be that guy again. If it’s not Pérez, the club could look to bring in another veteran catcher via free agency. The Bucs won’t spend to get Willson Contreras, but some of the other available options include Christian Vázquez, Omar Narváez, Austin Hedges and Tucker Barnhart.

Much like the position player side of things, the pitching staff features a host of youngsters who either will or won’t be part of the future. Mitch Keller seems to have taken a huge step forward here in 2022, dropping his ERA to 3.91 after registering a 6.17 mark last year. He’s still getting strikeouts at a below-average rate but improved his walk rate to a manageable level and is getting the ball on the ground more. After getting balls hit into the dirt on 40.4% of balls in play prior to this year, he had a 49% ground ball rate in 2022 thanks to adding a sinker to his repertoire.

Roansy Contreras got a three-inning cameo last year but got a more proper debut here in 2022. Over 95 innings, he put up a 3.79 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate and 36.4% ground ball rate. He will turn 23 in November and look to take a step forward next season. 23-year-old Luis Ortiz made his MLB debut with a 4.50 ERA over four starts. He had a similar 4.56 ERA over 124 1/3 innings in the minors but with encouraging rate stats, striking out 27.1% of batters faced while walking just 7.5%. Johan Oviedo was bumped to the bullpen in St. Louis but returned to starting after coming to Pittsburgh in the José Quintana trade. In seven starts since switching jerseys, he has a 3.23 ERA, 20.9% strikeout rate and 54.5% ground ball rate, though with a concerning 11.9% walk rate in that sample.

Beyond that group, there’s a collection of depth guys who could fill out the rest of the staff. JT Brubaker had a 5.36 ERA last year but a 4.69 ERA this year with fairly similar peripherals, thanks to keeping the ball in the park more. He got taken over the fence 28 times in 124 1/3 innings last year but has reduced that number to just 17 long balls this year, despite increasing his workload to 144 frames. He’s eligible for arbitration this winter but should be kept around as a serviceable back-end guy. Bryse Wilson put up a 5.52 ERA in 115 2/3 innings while frequently getting sent to the minors. He won’t reach arbitration this winter but will be out of options next year, meaning he’ll have to be designated for assignment if the club ever wants to remove him from the active roster next year. Zach Thompson made 22 starts this year but got shifted to the bullpen as the season wore on. Although there are many intriguing arms overall, the Bucs could certainly sign another low-cost veteran like they did with Quintana a year ago, who could eat some innings and serve a mentor role before hopefully getting traded for prospects at the deadline.

In the bullpen, there’s a handful of young arms, but the top name is David Bednar. Since coming over from the Padres in the January 2021 deal that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego, Bednar has fired 112 1/3 innings with a 2.40 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 37.6% ground ball rate. He’s emerged as the club’s closer in that time, notching 19 saves here in 2022. He’s been the subject of trade rumors already and likely will be again, though the Pirates shouldn’t feel much pressure to move him given he can be controlled through the 2026 season. Behind him, it’s a hodgepodge of younger depth arms and journeymen. The club could certainly grab a couple of veterans in the offseason, unless they are dead set on giving their existing arms as much run as possible.

In addition to the exciting players that have already cracked the big leagues, the Pirates will also be looking forward to some future debuts. The club’s top pitching prospect Quinn Priester reached Triple-A by the end of the year but spent most of his season at Double-A, registering a 2.87 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 51% ground ball rate. Endy Rodriguez, an interesting catching prospect who also plays infield and outfield, also made it up to Indianapolis by season’s end. Across multiple levels, he hit .323/.407/.590 this year. A bit further away are some other prospects of note, such as Henry Davis, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and many others.

There are certainly things to be excited about here, but the return to meaningful games doesn’t seem especially close. The Pirates finished 62-100, a modest one-game improvement over last season, and still have a lot of ground to make up before they are genuine contenders. With the club unlikely to be major spenders, it will take continued development from within to get them over the hump. Another offseason of small commitments is likely to come, with 2023 likely pegged as another year of letting the kids play and seeing where it goes.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks had a respectable second half, but there’s still a notable gap between them and the National League’s postseason contenders. Arizona seems to be on the upswing after a brutal three-year stretch. They’ve broken in a number of promising young players in the past couple years. Supplementing that emerging core with a better bullpen and a reliable starting pitcher will be offseason priorities.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional Financial Commitments

Total 2023 commitments: $59.975MM
Total future commitments: $149.875MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

  • Davies, Kennedy

It has been a tough few seasons for the Diamondbacks, who followed up consecutive last-place division finishes with the #4 standing in the NL West. They’re obviously not yet a complete roster, but they head into the offseason coming off their most encouraging few months since the end of the 2019 season. A dismal first half buried the D-Backs in the standings yet again, but they’ve played reasonably well coming out of the All-Star Break. They finished two games under .500 in the unofficial second half but outscored opponents by 15 runs since the Break. That was enough for the Diamondbacks to exercise their option on skipper Torey Lovullo, keeping him around for a seventh season.

Underperforming their run differential was a problem all year. Arizona finished with a 74-88 record, but their “expected” record based on their run differential checked in at 77-85. Only four teams (Rangers, Yankees, Dodgers and Twins) underperformed that mark by more, with Arizona’s 17-29 record in one-run contests a major factor. That gets partially at the team’s lack of offense late in close games, which the front office can expect to turn around through some combination of better luck and more high-leverage experience for their number of young hitters. Yet the inability to win close games also hints at the biggest flaw on the roster: the bullpen.

On the heels of their nightmarish 52-win 2021 season, the front office set out to address a relief unit that had allowed more than five earned runs per nine innings. Veterans Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy were brought in via free agency, while the club aggressively leveraged their high waiver priority to cycle through late-game arms (e.g. Kyle Nelson, Paul Fry, Reyes Moronta) who’d shown any kind of promise in the past. Almost nothing worked as planned, and the Snakes again ran out one of the sport’s worst relief groups. Arizona’s bullpen ranked 25th in ERA (4.58), 28th in strikeout/walk rate differential (10.5 percentage points) and tied for the 8th-most blown leads (27).

Fixing the bullpen again has to be an offseason priority. Kennedy had a 5.36 ERA and will be head back to free agency after the team declines its end of a mutual option. Melancon is due $6MM next year, plus a $2MM buyout on a 2024 mutual option. He’ll be back on the roster as a result, but he posted a 4.66 ERA that ranked as his worst mark in a decade. Long one of the game’s more consistent relievers, the 37-year-old is on the downslope of his career and coming off a third consecutive season with a well below-average swinging-strike rate. He’s still serviceable against right-handed batters but ideally wouldn’t enter 2023 locked into a high-leverage or closer role.

A run at another late-career former star closer could be in the cards. Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are all headed to free agency. None of that group is coming off a vintage season. Kimbrel and Jansen have been effective but not their formerly elite selves; Chapman has simply been below-average. Still, there’s little question that each of Kimbrel and Jansen, at least, would be upgrades in the late innings for Arizona. The D-Backs aren’t going to push towards nine figures to land Edwin Díaz, but a one-year salary in the $10MM range for a former star to solidify the ninth inning could be palatable.

Even if the Snakes bring in an established closer, they’ll probably look for another middle-innings arm as well. Adding a right-hander would be ideal, as Lovullo hasn’t had many reliable options from that side. Arizona only has two returning relievers who posted an above-average strikeout rate. One, southpaw Joe Mantiply, broke out with an All-Star season and is a lock to assume a late-innings role next year. The other, right-hander Kevin Ginkel, cleared waivers last winter and only made it back to the big leagues in August. A solid final two months should earn him a spot on next year’s roster, but he shouldn’t be guaranteed high-leverage innings after posting a 6.50 ERA from 2020-21. Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino and David Phelps are veteran righties coming off quality seasons and heading to free agency.

There should be financial room for the front office to address the relief corps. Arizona has just under $60MM committed to next season’s books. That doesn’t include arbitration estimates, but it’s not an overwhelming class. Christian Walker, Zac Gallen, Josh Rojas and Daulton Varsho are locks to be tendered contracts, but none is building off a huge platform salary. Walker made $2.6MM this year and will probably see a bump into the $5-6MM range. Gallen, Rojas and Varsho (the latter two of whom are likely to qualify for early arbitration as Super Two players) are arbitration-eligible for the first time. Gallen will likely be capped around the $4MM mark, while Rojas and Varsho will make a couple million dollars each. Keeping backstop Carson Kelly, who’s a potential non-tender candidate but seems likelier to stick around, would tack on another $5MM or so. Even if everyone in that group returns, Arizona’s only looking at roughly $80MM in commitments before building out the roster.

The Diamondbacks entered 2022 with a payroll just under $91MM, and they’ve pushed as high as the $130MM range in the past. Jumping back to franchise-record heights set before the shortened 2020 campaign seems unlikely, since owner Ken Kendrick has curtailed spending over the last two years. Nearing or exceeding $100MM could be viable, though, leaving the front office some opportunity.

Aside from the bullpen, the biggest question mark seems to be the back of the starting staff. Gallen has cemented himself as one of the sport’s elite arms, and he’ll front next year’s rotation. Behind him is Merrill Kelly, who posted a 3.37 ERA over 33 starts after signing a two-year extension during Spring Training. Kelly may not repeat quite that level of effectiveness next year, but he’s at least a solid mid-rotation arm. Were he slated to hit free agency this winter, the right-hander would certainly have topped the $18MM he received from the D-Backs in April. Arizona bet on Kelly to bounce back from a somewhat disappointing 4.44 ERA last season, and he’s rewarded the organization’s faith.

The final three spots in the rotation are open questions. Madison Bumgarner probably gets another crack thanks to his contract. Arizona’s five-year, $85MM free agent investment during the 2019-20 offseason has proven disastrous, with Bumgarner posting a 4.67 ERA or worse in the first three seasons of the deal. His days as an ace and postseason hero for the Giants are distant in the rearview, and his production in the desert has been that of a 5th/6th depth starter rather than the rotation stabilizer the club envisioned.

While Arizona would certainly welcome the opportunity to shed the final two years and $37MM on Bumgarner’s deal, it’s hard to see that happening. Perhaps the front office can orchestrate a swap of unfavorable contracts, but Bumgarner’s limited no-trade clause further complicates an already unlikely trade scenario. The far likelier outcome is he’ll remain on the roster and in the rotation heading into next season.

The remaining spots could give some of the club’s younger arms an opportunity to take steps forward. Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Tommy Henry all debuted this year and could compete for rotation spots in Spring Training. Nelson and Jameson are both well-regarded prospects who’ve impressed in their limited big league action. Each had a tougher time in an extremely hitter-friendly Triple-A environment, and their respective MLB bodies of work aren’t yet robust enough the D-Backs will lock either into an Opening Day rotation job. They’ve at least put themselves on the radar, reducing the need to give starts to the likes of Humberto Castellanos (who’ll miss most of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Tyler Gilbert.

Arizona’s farm system is rife with upper-level arms, and youngsters like Brandon Pfaadt and Blake Walston could factor into the mix as well. Pfaadt was excellent in ten Triple-A starts and could compete for a big league job out of camp. Walston probably starts next year in Triple-A but may earn a midseason look.

While the organization and its fanbase is certainly excited about the long-term potential of most of those arms, the Snakes still look likely to seek out shorter-term rotation fits this winter. Not all of Nelson, Jameson, Pfaadt and Walston will develop into mid-rotation caliber starters. Injuries and simple underperformance will set back some of that group. Even if two of the four hit the ground running and join Gallen and Kelly in the rotation, an outside addition or two could help manage the younger pitchers’ innings, safeguard against injury and perhaps eventually bump Bumgarner from the starting five.

It’d be a surprise to see Arizona make a long-term free agent investment considering the number of upper minors arms they have. It’s more likely they’d dip into the lower-tiers of free agency to add a stable back-end starter, similar to last winter’s signing of Zach Davies. Hurlers like Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles (if the Orioles buy out his club option), Johnny Cueto or Michael Lorenzen could fit the bill.

If the D-Backs wanted to act more divisively in pursuit of an upgrade, packaging some of their young talent together for an impact trade piece shouldn’t be out of the question. Arizona has drafted highly in recent years, adding high-end prospects like Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones to an already solid system. Even if those two are off limits in discussions, the Snakes’ upper level surplus of arms and outfielders (more on that in a bit) could allow them to push in their chips this winter. The Marlins are expected to make Pablo López available for offensive help. The Astros could deal from their rotation surplus, and Arizona pitching coach Brent Strom is familiar with the likes of Luis Garcia and José Urquidy from his time in Houston. Those are speculative possibilities, but Arizona’s at least a dark-horse candidate for that kind of trade.

Such a move wouldn’t have to be limited to the rotation, of course. Much of the D-Backs’ position player group is taking shape internally, but there’s still a chance to make a run at a good player with multiple seasons of club control. The A’s are widely expected to shop catcher Sean Murphy, who has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. If the D-Backs do part with Carson Kelly after a second straight below-average season, a pursuit of Murphy makes sense. He’s an immense offensive upgrade over Kelly, and his excellent defensive reputation would dovetail nicely with the Diamondbacks’ upcoming pitching prospects.

If Arizona eschews external catching additions and brings Kelly back, he’d be in line for the lion’s share of playing time. José Herrera didn’t lay claim to the backup job, so a low-cost veteran complement in free agency makes sense. The right side of the infield is set with Walker and Ketel Marte. Arizona stuck with Walker after a rough 2021 campaign. They were rewarded with a 36-homer showing, paired with Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. The D-Backs were open to offers on Walker at the trade deadline but didn’t move him. They’ll probably field some calls this winter, but it’ll tough for other teams to pry away his final two seasons of arbitration control.

Marte has been a frequent target in trade rumors for years, but Arizona committed to him as a franchise player with a five-year extension this spring. He didn’t have a great 2022 campaign, hitting .240/.321/.407 over 558 plate appearances with below-average defense at second base. Pedestrian season aside, Marte still brings a rare combination of contact skills and plus exit velocities. At some point down the line, the front office may think about reducing his time in the middle infield given his defensive limitations, but he’ll continue to play the majority of his reps at the keystone in 2023.

The left side of the infield is far less settled. Third base has been a revolving door for the past couple seasons. Arizona acquired Emmanuel Rivera from the Royals for Luke Weaver at the trade deadline and gave him a fair bit of run in the second half. Rivera hit .227/.304/.424 with plus defensive marks and will be in the mix at third, but he may be a better fit in a utility capacity.

That’s also true of Rojas, who split his time between second and third base and designated hitter. He’s a solid left-handed bat with excellent plate discipline and good bat-to-ball skills. Rojas is a productive hitter, but he’s not a great defender anywhere. Rather than pencil him in as an everyday third baseman, the D-Backs are likelier to continue to deploy him as a multi-positional option off the bench, living with poor defense at various positions to plug him into the lineup on a more or less everyday basis.

Between Rivera and Rojas, the Diamondbacks don’t seem likely to consider third base a true position of need. With a weak free agent class there, they may not end up addressing it at all. Still, neither Rivera nor Rojas absolutely forecloses the possibility of an upgrade, and the front office figures to at least gauge the trade and non-tender markets for potential fits.

Shortstop, meanwhile, looks like the biggest position player hole on the depth chart. Defensive stalwart Nick Ahmed is under contract for more than $10MM next season, but he only played in 17 games this year before undergoing shoulder surgery. Ahmed played more frequently in 2021 but didn’t hit well. The shoulder issues could’ve played a role in that subpar production, but he’s been a below-average offensive player in every season of his career. With Ahmed out, Arizona gave extended run to rookie Geraldo Perdomo. The 22-year-old looked overmatched, posting a .195/.285/.262 mark across 500 plate appearances.

Relying on Ahmed and Perdomo again would be suboptimal, although it’s fair to wonder if the front office will be able to find an upgrade. A run at any of the top four free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson) isn’t likely to be in the cards for financial reasons. There’s a notable drop-off to Elvis Andrus and José Iglesias beyond that group. Turning to the trade market, Amed Rosario is among the names who could be made available, as the Guardians thread a tight financial needle.

In contrast to shortstop, the D-Backs enter the offseason with an arguable surplus of outfield talent. Top prospect Corbin Carroll reached the majors in late August and hit the ground running. He’ll play every day in either left or center field, while Varsho will be a regular at another outfield spot. Formerly a catcher/outfielder hybrid, Varsho seems to have landed full-time in the grass at this stage of his career. That’s in large part because defensive metrics have viewed him as an elite gloveman in right field (and a plus in center).

Meanwhile, second-year player Jake McCarthy broke out with a .283/.342/.427 showing with 23 stolen bases over 354 plate appearances this season. McCarthy was never the caliber of prospect Carroll or Varsho were, but he looks deserving of everyday run himself. A slightly below-average exit velocity and contact rate raise some questions about how sustainable this year’s performance may be, but he’s capable of covering all three outfield spots and has performed against left-handed and right-handed pitchers alike. At the very least, he looks like a high-end fourth outfielder, and he’s earned an opportunity to demonstrate he’s more than that.

Carroll, Varsho and McCarthy give the Snakes a trio of potential everyday outfielders, all of whom can cover center field. That’s before considering the presence of another recent top prospect, Alek Thomas. Thomas is the one Arizona outfielder who didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level, posting a .231/.275/.344 line across 411 plate appearances. He’s raked throughout his time in the minors, though, and he’s yet to turn 23. A gifted defensive center fielder with strong contact skills, Thomas still looks like a possible everyday player.

Arizona could open the season with a McCarthy – Carroll – Varsho outfield while sending Thomas back to Triple-A. Yet the enviable depth could also allow them to explore ways to bolster other areas of the roster via trade. Dealing someone from that group (McCarthy or Thomas, most likely) as part of a package for a controllable starting pitcher or shortstop won’t be off the table. This front office pulled a similarly fascinating trade a few years ago, sending then-prospect Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Miami for Gallen, suggesting they’re at least open to that kind of unconventional swap.

For a team coming off a third straight sub-.500 season, the Diamondbacks could be in for a sneakily fascinating winter. They’ve seen a young core begin to blossom in the majors. General manager Mike Hazen and his staff should have chances to package some of that upper level talent to balance out the roster. With some financial leeway also in place, Arizona could be more aggressive than many might anticipate as they work to establish themselves as legitimate playoff contenders heading into 2023.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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The 2022 A’s were as bad as expected after trading away Matt Olson, Chris Bassitt, Matt Chapman and Sean Manaea last offseason and declining to add any real upgrades in the free-agent market. The fire sale continued into the summer, as Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino were traded, while Elvis Andrus and Stephen Piscotty were simply released. Expect more turnover this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

The A’s head into the offseason without a single dollar committed to the 2023 payroll. Their fire sale, which dates back to last winter, has stripped the payroll down to the bare minimum. They’ll have five arbitration-eligible players (plus another pair of potential Super Two players) on whom they need to decide, but it’s a pretty straightforward bunch. Deolis Guerra missed the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery and figures to be non-tendered. Tony Kemp is hitting .233/.307/.333 as of this writing and only has one year of club control left. They could tender him simply to have some semblance of roster continuity and give the fans at least one more name they can recognize, but he’s due a raise on this season’s $2.25MM salary and the A’s might want to give those at-bats to younger players.

Each of Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy and Paul Blackburn will be tendered contracts, though that doesn’t necessarily guarantee a return to the roster next season. In the case of Laureano and Blackburn, it at least appears likely they’ll be back. Laureano was an in-demand trade chip last offseason and drew interest this summer, too, but he’s controllable for another three seasons and the A’s probably feel they’d be selling low if they moved him on the heels of a .211/.287/.376 batting line.

Laureano missed the first month of the season serving out the final portion of an 80-game PED suspension and looks like he’ll end the year on the injured list owing to a hamstring strain. His stock is probably as low as it’s been since the A’s acquired him in what looked like a forgettable, minor trade with the division-rival Astros. But, from 2018-21, Laureano batted .263/.335/.485 with 49 homers, 34 steals, plus baserunning value and strong glovework (plus a penchant for highlight-reel grabs).

A good first half in 2023 might be all it takes to boost Laureano from a buy-low candidate to a premium outfielder with (as of next summer) two-plus seasons of club control remaining. Unless a team is willing to pay for the 2018-21 version of him right now, it’s most sensible to just hold.

It’s a relatively similar tale with Blackburn, who ascended from DFA fodder that went unclaimed on waivers early in the 2021 season to a 2022 All-Star. It’s fair to be cynical and point out that, yes, someone from the Athletics needed to be named to the team, but Blackburn was far more than a token All-Star. His end-of-season numbers don’t reflect that, though that’s due to an injury.

Through his first 16 starts of the season, Blackburn was outstanding. He pitched to a 2.90 ERA in that time, offsetting a pedestrian 17.7% strikeout rate with an excellent 5.9% walk rate and a hearty 50.5% grounder rate. Blackburn’s 87.2 mph average exit velocity in that time was strong, and he allowed all of seven “barreled” balls through those first 16 starts (3.2%). Virtually no one was squaring the ball up against him, he wasn’t walking many hitters, and he was erasing plenty of traffic on the bases with timely double-play grounders.

Things went awry for Blackburn beginning in mid-July, when he began experiencing discomfort in his pitching hand. He tried to pitch through pain for the next month, serving up 25 runs in 24 1/3 innings before eventually succumbing to the injured list. He was diagnosed with a torn tendon sheath in his right middle finger and placed in a splint for up to eight weeks. Suffice it to say, to trade Blackburn right now would be selling low. Like Laureano, he’s controlled another three seasons, so if he starts strong in 2023 he could quickly build up trade value.

If there’s one glaring trade candidate on the Oakland roster right now, it’s Murphy, who’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and should see his salary jump from $725K to more than $3MM. Obviously that’s not a large sum, but the A’s, even more so than usual over the past year, have endeavored to tear the payroll down to its lowest possible levels.

Beyond the salary ramifications, Murphy’s value is arguably at its apex — and the A’s have an in-house option whom they hope can emerge as a similarly productive backstop: top prospect Shea Langeliers, acquired from the Braves as one of the centerpieces to March’s Olson trade. The presence of Langeliers alone certainly doesn’t push Murphy out the door — Langeliers has batted just .220/.242/.398 in his first 124 MLB plate appearances, after all — but Murphy will draw widespread interest on the heels of a breakout season.

Because of his elite defensive skills and above-average power, the 27-year-old Murphy was already viewed as a quality player even after turning in a tepid .216/.306/.405 slash in 2021. This year, he’s boosted that stat line to a much more palatable .249/.331/.430, and even that slash undersells just how strong of a finish he’s putting together. Dating back to early June, Murphy has mashed at a .278/.362/.465 clip with 13 homers, 23 doubles, a triple, a 9.4% walk rate and just a 16.3% strikeout rate in 385 plate appearances. That’s standout production from any hitter but especially from a catcher with above-average framing marks, a strong 31% caught-stealing rate and perennially positive marks in Defensive Runs Saved.

The Rays, Guardians, Cubs, Marlins, Tigers, Red Sox, Twins and several others teams could plausibly look into Murphy this winter. There are only seven teams that saw their catchers combine for offensive production that was better than that of a league-average hitter in 2022, and one of them was the A’s, so there’ll be no shortage of potential trade partners. As things stand, Murphy looks like the primary offseason trade chip who could be sold at peak value. Teams are sometimes reluctant to trade for a new starting catcher midseason and have him learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly — hence, to an extent, Willson Contreras staying put this year — so trading Murphy over the next six months could be easier than marketing him next summer.

Beyond that group, the Oakland roadmap is more or less wide open. It’s not necessarily an enviable spot, but aside from Murphy at catcher and Laureano in one of the three outfield spots, the A’s are lacking in established, everyday players. Slugger Seth Brown figures to be a regular, but he’s capable of playing first base, corner outfield or slotting in at designated hitter, giving the front office some flexibility. Cristian Pache, acquired alongside Langeliers in the Olson trade with Atlanta, will be out of minor league options in 2023, so he’ll likely be penciled into center field despite hitting just .248/.298/.349 in Triple-A and .160/.211/.225 in the Majors. Otherwise, there are seemingly no guarantees of playing time.

Nick Allen has played excellent defense at shortstop but hasn’t hit enough to firmly seize the spot.  Kevin Smith, acquired for Chapman, hasn’t hit much in the Majors or in Triple-A and will likely get another look at third base or second base next year — but he has options remaining and could begin the year in Triple-A. Dermis Garcia has shown some pop at first base but has also fanned 46 times in 108 plate appearances. I already touched on Langeliers’ status. There’s just very little certainty throughout the roster.

As such, even though they’re not likely to attract (or to be willing to spend on) marquee free agents, the A’s can offer something many contending clubs cannot: opportunity. Hitters searching for a rebound might not relish playing half their games in the cavernous Coliseum the same way a pitcher might, but the promise of an earnest shot at 500-600 plate appearances isn’t something every team can offer to players coming off down years.

The A’s can absolutely do that, and with basically nothing committed to next year’s payroll, there’s every reason to do so. Former stars and top prospects who’ve seen their stock drop could see some appeal in the playing time available in Oakland, whether that’s Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, Didi Gregorius or Wil Myers. Oakland is going to need someone to fill out the lineup, and they’re not going to be the top choice for in-demand free agents coming off strong seasons.

The A’s would also make a nice soft landing spot for any notable names who are non-tendered; paying up for a year of someone like Cody Bellinger, if he’s cut loose by the Dodgers, brings a recognizable name and some major upside come deadline season. Only time will tell whether the A’s spend on a few larger names or spread out any available resources among a larger number of low-cost options. Either route is plausible, but since they can’t expect to contend next season anyhow, the focus ought to be on acquiring short-term players who have the chance to net the most trade deadline value (or perhaps non-tendered players with multiple years of club control remaining).

One target that seems like a given, however, is a veteran catcher. If the A’s trade Murphy, they’ll want someone with some experience to work alongside Langeliers. If Murphy stays put, the best thing for Langeliers will be to play everyday in Triple-A, necessitating some type of backup addition. Austin Hedges, Omar Narvaez, Roberto Perez, Kevin Plawecki and Tucker Barnhart are among the available names.

Over on the pitching staff, things are a bit more solid — but not by much. Cole Irvin could reach arbitration as a Super Two player, but even then he’d have another four years of team control remaining. Clubs may still come calling, and the A’s might even find an offer to their liking, but it’s rare to see players with this much team control remaining actually change hands. Besides, Irvin is limping to the finish line (6.97 ERA over his past nine starts) and, with a 4.11 ERA in 175 innings overall, looks more like an innings-eating fourth starter than anything else. Some teams will need that, but the free-agent market offers comparable arms who won’t cost minor league talent. A deal could be hard to piece together here, particularly since the A’s also badly need stable innings of this nature.

Irvin and Blackburn, then, should take two rotation spots. The A’s can offer a guaranteed rotation spot and a spacious home park to any number of rebound hopefuls in free agency — Matthew Boyd, Dallas Keuchel, Chad Kuhl, Michael Pineda, Joe Ross, Vince Velasquez among them — and there are plenty of in-house options for the final spots. Adrian Martinez, James Kaprielian, Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Zach Logue, Adam Oller and Daulton Jefferies will be in the rotation mix next spring. Kaprielian is out of minor league options and has pitched well of late (3.43 ERA since July 1), so he’s a favorite for a role either in the rotation or bullpen next year.

Speaking of the ’pen, the Athletics should have innings — and perhaps even saves — to offer free agents in that regard as well. A.J. Puk, Domingo Acevedo, Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez and Sam Moll have all had nice years (albeit some of them with troubling command issues), but there’s no set closer in Mark Kotsay’s group. Dangling that role to lure a high-profile name like Ken Giles, Tommy Kahnle, Corey Knebel or even Craig Kimbrel could make for a compelling selling point.

It’s not yet clear just how high the A’s will be willing to take their payroll. They opened the 2022 season with a paltry $48MM in commitments and would need to do a fair bit of work just to get back to that point. Given the huge gap between their projected commitments and even 2022’s stripped-down Opening Day payroll total, they should have plenty of room to get creative; the oft-proposed but seldom-implemented strategy of acquiring prospects by absorbing a bad contract does make some sense for Oakland, even if we’re not accustomed to the idea of them providing salary relief to another team.

We’ve seen the Red Sox (acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr. and Adam Ottavino over the past two offseasons) and the Giants back in 2018 (Zack Cozart) take on underwater contracts in trades that saw the Brewers, Yankees and Angels all surrender mid-range prospects to shed those commitments. With few established big league talents left to sell for prospects at this point and a completely blank payroll slate, the A’s could consider that tactic.

Obviously, Oakland isn’t going to absorb the $59MM still remaining on Patrick Corbin’s deal with the Nats. The A’s are probably in no hurry to eat the remaining $30.5MM the Yankees owe to Aaron Hicks, either. Smaller-scale commitments to (relatively) young players, however, could make some sense. Scott Kingery, for instance, is clearly no longer in the Phillies’ plans and has just a year $9MM to go on his contract. The Phillies, a luxury-tax payor, might have extra incentive to shed even his contract’s $4MM AAV from the books as they plan for the 2023 campaign.

That’s just one speculative example, to be clear, and there’s no indication yet that Oakland’s ever-frugal ownership group would green-light the addition of player salary to bolster the middle tiers of the farm system. Still, it’d be a sensible approach given the current payroll and state of the rebuild.

I’ve written a lot of these offseason outlooks at MLBTR over the years, but it’s hard to recall a parallel with the current state of the A’s: a team with no guaranteed money on the following year’s books, a tiny arbitration class (that could be further depleted by trades/non-tenders), a farm system that still ranks in the bottom half to bottom third of the league, and almost nothing on the roster in terms of established, cost-controlled players. The A’s could go in countless directions this winter as they look to fill this blank canvas, but two things seem clear: they probably won’t spend much money along the way, and this rebuild is going to take some time.

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