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2022-23 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Guardians

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The Guardians had a pretty quiet offseason, but they splurged (by their modest payroll standards) on a pair of everyday sluggers to augment the lineup.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $22.5MM
Total spending: $39MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Josh Bell and Mike Zunino have combined for 82 home runs in 1713 total plate appearances since the start of the 2021 season, while the Guardians had a collective 127 homers over 6163 PA during the 2022 season.  Of all 30 Major League teams, only the punchless Tigers went yard fewer times than the Guardians in 2022, making power the obvious need for Cleveland heading into the offseason.

This isn’t to say that Bell or Zunino were necessarily at the top of the wishlist.  Zunino might not have even been the second choice, as such catchers as Sean Murphy and Christian Vazquez also drew interest from the Guards in both the trade and free agent markets.  However, the A’s and Guardians never lined up on a trade match for Murphy, and thus the backstop ended up headed to the Braves as part of a three-team, nine-player deal.  Vazquez, meanwhile, went elsewhere in the AL Central by signing a three-year, $30MM pact with the Twins.

With other options off the market, Cleveland pivoted to Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal — significantly less than the cost of Vazquez’s deal, or the prospect cost it would’ve taken for the Guardians to top Atlanta’s offer for Murphy.  It’s fair to assume that the Guards’ limited payroll played some role in the front office’s decision to ultimately land on Zunino, as well as the team’s related need to use its minor league system as a steady pipeline of talent.

If Zunino is healthy, the Guardians can reasonably count on the backstop to deliver his customary blend of strong defense, a lot of power, and also a lot of strikeouts at the plate.  Health is no guarantee, however, since Zunino’s 2022 season was cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in July.  TOS surgery is still a new enough procedure that there isn’t much of a proven track record for predicting how well a player (particularly a hitter) might rebound in the aftermath.

In short, it means that the Guardians are somewhat rolling the dice with a position that has been relatively stable for years.  Cleveland has long been willing to accept subpar offense from their catchers (i.e. Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges, or Luke Maile) in exchange for excellent glovework, and yet in the wake of Zunino’s surgery, the Guardians don’t really know what they’re getting offensively or defensively behind the plate.

Unsurprisingly, the Guards have tried to mitigate that risk with other catchers, signing Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria, and Zack Collins to minor league deals.  That trio and in-house candidates Bryan Lavastida and David Fry are all in competition for the backup catching job, and the Guardians are also surely hoping that Bo Naylor earns another MLB promotion at some point in 2023.  Naylor will begin the season at Triple-A to amass more regular playing time, but if Zunino or any of the backup candidates struggle, it might force Cleveland’s hand in regard to how much more time Naylor spends in the minors.

The catching position needed to be addressed with Hedges and Maile entering free agency, and first base also stood out as a position of need considering the Guards’ need for power.  The answer was Bell, who will team with Josh Naylor (Bo’s brother) in a first base/DH timeshare.  It is worth noting that Jose Abreu was another prominent name the Guardians considered, to the point that the Guards reportedly made Abreu a three-year offer before the first baseman opted to sign with the Astros for a three-year, $58.5MM deal that was presumably out of Cleveland’s price range.

Bell’s contract is for a more modest $33MM over two years, and it might end up being a one-year, $16.5MM pact since Bell has the ability to opt out after the 2023 season.  The contract size and structure reflects Bell’s inconsistency over the last four seasons, as other teams may have been wary about giving a longer-term deal to a player with so many extreme peaks and valleys in his production.

The bottom-line numbers are strong, as Bell has hit .264/.353/.475 with 89 homers in 2051 PA since the start of the 2019 season, translating to a solidly above-average 120 wRC+.  But, the 2022 season was a microcosm of Bell’s ability to swing between hot and cold.  After crushing the ball with the Nationals prior to the trade deadline, Bell was dealt to the Padres as part of the blockbuster Juan Soto trade, and the first baseman then struggled badly with San Diego.

On the plus side, Bell’s high-contact, low-strikeout approach at the plate is a match for a Guardians team that adheres to that offensive philosophy.  There is also a chance that Bell’s best power numbers are yet to come, if he can get the ball in the air more often and cut back on his near-league-leading grounder totals.

Bell and Zunino are the big additions to a Cleveland roster that will look very familiar to the 2022 model, and the “if it ain’t broke…” logic can certainly apply to the Guardians’ relatively slow winter.  The Guards were the youngest team in baseball in 2022, and yet many of these young talents helped lead Cleveland to the AL Central title and then the deciding fifth game of the ALDS against the Yankees.  As well, an argument can be made that the Guardians were ahead of the curve in preparing for the 2023 season, since they’ve already built a roster based around speed and defense heading into a season where both facets of the game will be emphasized by the new rules.  (Even the pitch clock adjustment should be less difficult for a team with so many players who have so recently competed under a clock in the minor leagues.)

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti left no wiggle room in stating they “have every intention of trying to contend [in 2023], and trying to win a World Series.”  Still, even if the Guardians considered trading for Murphy, the concept of packaging several prospects in a win-now move generally isn’t Cleveland’s style.  Likewise, even trading more established players like Amed Rosario, Aaron Civale, or Zach Plesac to create room for the newcomers might’ve been a tactic the Guardians would’ve explored if they didn’t feel they were genuinely close to competing for a championship.  This isn’t to say that one of the starting pitchers or maybe even an everyday shortstop like Rosario might not be on the trade block by the deadline, but that would mean that either the Guardians have fallen out of the race, or else the team has immense faith that one of its wealth of young pitchers or young middle infielders is ready for a larger role.

The Guards did move some younger players in trades this winter, partly out of necessity to open up 40-man roster spaces for more up-and-comers.  Will Benson, Carlos Vargas, Owen Miller, and Jose Fermin all had some nice numbers in the minor leagues and Benson and Miller had even made their MLB debuts, but the Guardians moved all four of these players in low-level deals for cash or for minor leaguers who didn’t yet need to be placed on the 40-man.

The Nolan Jones-for-Juan Brito trade was a bit different, as Brito did immediately secure a spot on the 40-man roster.  The deal probably came as a surprise to some Cleveland fans who wondered why the Guardians were moving a player recently considered among the team’s top prospects, since Jones was a regular on top-100 lists from 2019-21.  That said, the Guards felt comfortable in moving Jones (coming off his MLB debut season) to the Rockies for Brito, a 21-year-old middle infielder who has yet to reach high-A ball.

It could be the Guardians were simply taken by Brito’s ability strong minor league production and up-the-middle defensive profile, or perhaps they had concerns about Jones’ high strikeout totals and his lack of a clear-cut defensive position.  A natural third baseman, he obviously had no path to playing time at the hot corner in Cleveland.  Since Jones was ultimately dealt for a prospect and not more of a win-now piece, perhaps other teams shared these concerns about Jones’ viability at the big league level.

More deals could certainly emerge over the course of the season, as the Guardians could be tempted to make a more significant prospect-for-veteran swap at the deadline in order to bolster themselves for a playoff race.  Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have set out to make the Guardians into perpetual contenders rather than a team that pushes their chips in for a singular run, but there might be a bit of extra pressure to try and win while the Guards still have Bell, Rosario (set for free agency after the 2023 season), Shane Bieber (after 2024), and while Jose Ramirez is still in his prime.  Plus, given how longtime manager Terry Francona isn’t sure how long his health problems will allow him to keep managing, the organization surely wants to capitalize on having one of the game’s best skippers in the dugout.

We’ve already seen some hints of Cleveland’s aggressiveness in its payroll hike, as the Guardians are set to spend around $90.7MM in 2023.  It isn’t a top-tier payroll by any measure, but it is an increase from the approximate $69MM the Guards spent on last year’s player budget.  It remains to be seen how much more leeway (if any) Antonetti and Chernoff have for any midseason additions, though it’s probably safe to assume that the Guardians aren’t going to suddenly splurge on any high salaries at the deadline.

How would you grade the Guardians’ offseason? (Link to poll)

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals focused mostly on adding veteran pitching, while clearing some space on the position-player side for new younger talents to get a larger big-league opportunity.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $23.75MM
Total spending: $32.25MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Heading into J.J. Picollo’s first winter as Kansas City’s general manager, the executive was pretty forthright about the team’s plans.  With an eye towards sticking to roughly the same $88MM payroll as last season, the Royals intended to add one or two veteran hitters (one of them a right-handed bat if possible), at least two starting pitchers, and some additional bullpen and rotation depth.

On the pitching end of that wishlist, it was mission accomplished.  All of the Royals’ guaranteed spending went towards the mound, as the club bolstered the rotation with free agents Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough, while also bringing back a franchise icon in Zack Greinke.  On the relief end, the Royals brought in one of the most accomplished closers of recent years by signing Aroldis Chapman for a late-game role, if not necessarily as the team’s next ninth-inning man.

Of course, there was a reason why Chapman was available for a modest one-year, $3.75MM deal.  Chapman is now entering his age-35 season, and his effectiveness has diminished over the last two seasons as his walk rates have skyrocketed.  While the southpaw’s control has long been inconsistent, Chapman’s 11.5% walk rate over his first 11 MLB seasons was substantially lower than the 16.4% walk rate he has posted in 2021-22.  His once-elite fastball has lost effectiveness and some velocity (down to “only” 97.7 mph in 2022), and batters also made far more hard contact against Chapman’s pitches in 2022 than at any other point in the 2015-22 Statcast era.

If that wasn’t enough, Chapman also spent close to nine weeks on the injured list last season due to an Achilles injury and an infection related to a recently-added tattoo.  After Chapman skipped a team workout prior to the start of the Yankees’ ALDS matchup with the Guardians, the writing was pretty clearly on the wall that his time in New York was through.

Ideally for the Royals, Chapman would regain his old form in a new environment, and help incumbent closer Scott Barlow solidify late-game leads (and perhaps even grab a few saves ahead of Barlow in certain situations).  That scenario would make Chapman an interesting trade chip heading into the deadline, assuming that K.C. isn’t in contention by midseason.

That short-term-asset mindset could apply to some of Kansas City’s other winter acquisitions, possibly any of their minor league signings who rebuild their value at the MLB level.  Greinke could potentially be flipped to a contender, but probably only if he approves such a move, assuming the Royals take the same approach with Greinke as they did prior to last year’s trade deadline.  While it wouldn’t be shocking if either Lyles or Yarbrough were also dealt for the right offer, the Royals at least obtained some extra control with those signings, since Yarbrough is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season and Lyles was inked to a two-year guarantee.

In an era of pitching specialization, Lyles is a bit of a throwback as a classic innings-eater, tossing 359 frames with the Rangers and Orioles in 2021-22.  Between durability and an increasingly solid walk rate, Lyles brings some pluses to the K.C. rotation, and Lyles’ numbers over his career have unsurprisingly been generally better when he has played in more pitcher-friendly venues (which bodes well for a move to Kauffman Stadium).  With low strikeout totals and an unspectacular 4.76 ERA since the start of the 2019 season, Lyles isn’t a frontline starter, but the Royals are only asking for him to hold the fort.

Over five seasons with the Rays, Yarbrough was a more of a modern take on the “innings eater” model, working as both a bulk pitcher (behind an opener) and as a traditional starter.  New Royals manager Matt Quatraro is very familiar with Yarbrough from his past role as Tampa Bay’s bench coach, and he’ll now try to get the left-hander on track after Yarbrough posted a 4.90 ERA over 235 innings since the start of the 2021 season.  Despite elite soft-contact rates and solid-to-excellent walk rates, Yarbrough’s lack of strikeout ability and lack of velocity has started to catch up with him, and batters are teeing off on his once-solid cutter/changeup combination.

Yarbrough is ticketed to begin the season as a starter, but Greinke, Lyles, and Brady Singer are the only locks for a full-time rotation job.  Between Yarbrough’s ability to work as a reliever and the fact that Brad Keller lost his starting spot last year, the Royals have some flexibility in deciding what they want to do with the last two rotation slots.  With injuries, performance, or perhaps trades factoring into the Royals’ decision-making process, former top draft picks like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, or Jackson Kowar could get some starts as the season develops.

These highly-touted young arms have yet to show much at the MLB level, which explains why Kansas City has had to target veteran fill-ins for the rotation.  To that end, the hirings of Brian Sweeney as pitching coach, Mitch Stetter as bullpen coach, and Zach Bove as an assistant pitching coach and director of Major League pitching strategy are perhaps more important than any roster move, since Picollo is overhauling the Royals’ approach in developing and managing pitchers.  It certainly seems as if K.C. will be putting a new focus on analytics, and Quatraro (Tampa Bay) and Sweeney (Cleveland) are both coming from teams with a strong track record of getting the most out of their pitchers.

If the fixes can take hold quickly, the Royals might see some significant improvement from their pitching side, which would be a huge step forward in their plans to finally break out of rebuild mode.  Naturally the club would also love to see development from its core of position players, and yet while the situation around the diamond didn’t need quite as much immediate help as the rotation, the Royals certainly put a lot more emphasis on adding pitching than hitting this winter.

Finances could’ve been a factor, given the rising prices for pitching throughout the sport.  The market allowed for Lyles to land a two-year deal, and for Greinke to land at least $8.5MM on a one-year contract, though Greinke’s deal has plenty of easily-reachable innings incentives that could boost the value to as much as $16MM.  This contract represented something of a middle ground between the $13MM guaranteed Greinke received last season, and the Royals’ desire for a more incentive-heavy deal with the 39-year-old this time around.

Without much leverage to boost the payroll, the Royals’ desire to upgrade the lineup didn’t really materialize, as the team is hoping to strike paydirt on at least one of its minor league signings.  Such veterans as Franmil Reyes, Jackie Bradley Jr., Matt Duffy, Jorge Bonifacio, Matt Beaty, and Johan Camargo are in camp as non-roster invitees, and Reyes probably represents the best chance for Kansas City to land that desired right-handed hitting upgrade.

The Royals saw plenty of Reyes during his time in Cleveland over the last four seasons, and it certainly looked as if Reyes had broken out as a fearsome power bat following a 37-homer season in 2021.  However, Reyes’ production completely cratered in 2022, to the point that the Guardians (a team themselves in sore need of power) designated him for assignment in August.

Reyes’ numbers only slightly improved after joining the Cubs on a waiver claim, and the 27-year-old now returns to the AL Central looking for a bounce-back season.  Kauffman Stadium isn’t exactly the ideal setting for a power-only player to rebound, yet since the Royals finished 26th of 30 teams in home runs in 2022, they’ll take whatever slugging potential they can get from Reyes as a DH and occasional outfielder.

The other minor league signings give K.C. some veteran depth behind their plan to let the kids play in 2023.  Duffy, Beaty, and Camargo will support the projected infield plan of Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop, Vinnie Pasquantino at first base, one of Michael Massey or Nicky Lopez at second base with the other in a backup role, and Hunter Dozier likely to get most of the third base work.  There’s some fluidity in this plan, as Dozier can play other positions and (more pointedly) hasn’t hit much in any of his last three seasons, so Nate Eaton or Maikel Garcia could eat into the playing time at the hot corner.

While non-roster players are a part of every team’s Spring Training, the Royals have a particular need after moving some position players over the offseason.  In keeping the payroll stable, spending a bit extra to sign pitching meant that some salary had to be cut elsewhere, which certainly factored into the club’s decisions to trade Michael A. Taylor (owed $4.5MM in 2023) to the Twins, Adalberto Mondesi ($3.045MM) to the Red Sox, and Ryan O’Hearn ($1.4MM) to the Orioles.

None of the three deals were a real surprise, since Taylor’s name had been floated in trade talks since last year’s deadline, and it was perhaps unexpected that Kansas City even tendered O’Hearn a contract.  Mondesi was once one of baseball’s elite prospects, yet as the years went by and Mondesi was sidelined by one injury after another, the Royals were ready to move on.

Josh Taylor (coming to K.C. in the Mondesi trade) is no stranger to the injured list himself, having missed all of 2022 due to back problems.  But, the left-hander also brings a live fastball, lots of strikeouts, and three years of team control to Kansas City’s bullpen, so Taylor might be a very nice addition if he can stay healthy.

Pasquantino and Nick Pratto had already reduced O’Hearn’s role as a first baseman, and Taylor became expendable since the Royals have Drew Waters as their projected new center fielder.  That plan is on hold for the moment, however, since an oblique strain will likely keep Waters on the injured list for the start of the season.  Waters’ injury opened the door for the Royals to sign Bradley as center field depth, with Kyle Isbel as the first option up the middle while Waters recovers.

With a few weeks to go before Opening Day, K.C. might not be done making lower-level moves, or maybe even more significant trades involving in-house veterans.  For instance, Lopez drew some attention from the White Sox in January, though that particular avenue might be closed since the Sox have since signed Elvis Andus to fill their need for second base help.  If the Royals are confident in Massey as the starting second baseman and feel that the likes of Garcia or Duffy can provide middle infield backup, Lopez might still get shopped — the Dodgers stand out as an obvious possibility, since Gavin Lux will miss the season after tearing his ACL.

Picollo openly said that the Royals weren’t going to be too aggressive with their spending or roster-building during the winter, since the club first needs needs to figure out what they have in so many players who are lacking in proven MLB production, or even playing time at the sport’s highest level.  Perhaps the most interesting development would be if the Royals were able to negotiate contract extensions with any of their more clear building blocks, like Witt or Singer.

How would you grade the Royals’ offseason? (Link to poll)

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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In conjunction with this entry in our annual Offseason in Review series, MLBTR will be hosting a Brewers-centric chat on March 10 at 10am CT. Click here to submit a question in advance.

The Brewers’ offseason began with a changing of the guard in the front office, as longtime president of baseball operations David Stearns stepped into an advisory role and handed the keys over to general manager Matt Arnold.

Major League Signings

Total spend: $9.72MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Early in the offseason, there was some belief that between Stearns stepping down and some of the early transactions under Arnold, the Brewers were shifting into a rebuilding mode. After all, they’d traded Josh Hader at the deadline, missed the playoffs and opened the winter by dealing away both Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong.

However, moves of that ilk have become par for the course in Milwaukee as players approach the end of their club control. The Brewers are not and never have been a large-payroll club, and though they’ve made some big-scale splashes (e.g. extending Christian Yelich, signing Lorenzo Cain), Milwaukee generally operates on the margins and makes extreme value-driven decisions that often look a bit befuddling.

This is the same club that non-tendered Chris Carter after he led the league in home runs and the same club that has regularly declined affordable options on role players like Brad Boxberger, Jedd Gyorko and Eric Thames over the years, believing (often correctly so) that slightly better values will surface late in the offseason.

In the case of Renfroe, he was only acquired in the first place as a means of Milwaukee jettisoning the remainder of their ill-fated contract with Jackie Bradley Jr. The Brewers parted with a pair of prospects in order to shed that contract, but the Renfroe swap was a financially motivated one to begin with. Moving one year of control over Renfroe on the heels of a nice season for three near-MLB righties feels like an on-brand move for this team, given Renfroe’s OBP and $11.9MM salary. It’s a reasonable price, but the Brewers probably didn’t consider there to be much surplus value.

The decision on Wong was somewhat similar. The Brewers have depth in the middle infield, headlined by prospect Brice Turang — the favorite for to succeed Wong at second base. Wong’s $10MM salary was effectively market value for a player of his age and skill set — perhaps a bit over — and the Brewers flipped him for a buy-low DH/corner outfield candidate who could help cover for Renfroe’s departure (Jesse Winker) and a controllable infielder who has had his share of struggles but was once a well-regarded prospect (Abraham Toro). Winker, in particular, is an interesting rebound candidate after he played through knee and neck injuries last year, both of which required offseason surgery. Prior to that, he was one of the game’s most productive bats against right-handed pitching.

The trades of Renfroe and Wong weren’t as much about shedding payroll — though that was surely a piece of it — as converting one year of control over a near-market-value asset into several years of control over a handful of largely big league-ready players, even if they’re seen as projects with limited ceilings.

Many fans and pundits braced for subsequent trades of stars like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames, but the Brewers instead told other clubs they planned to hang onto that trio of core players. It’s fair to wonder just how long that’ll last. Woodruff and Burnes are both controlled two more seasons, both owed over $10MM in 2023 and will both likely top $15MM in salary for the 2024 season. Neither seems likely to take a discount on an extension at this point — certainly not Burnes, after voicing frustration regarding the Brewers’ tactics in arbitration. Adames is more affordable, but only slightly so ($8.7MM). He’s also the youngest of the bunch and recently commented on how this offseason’s class of free-agent shortstops “set the bar” for future free agents at the position.

All three of those All-Star-caliber talents will be Brewers to begin the season, but by this summer, there’ll be increased focus on them. If the Brewers are out of contention or even on the cusp of it, they could be forced into decisions that rival last summer’s Hader dilemma: either ride out a star player’s penultimate year of club control in hopes of reaching the postseason (and in doing so lessen his trade value in the offseason), or make a trade that’s unpopular in the clubhouse and among fans in the name of restocking the system with near-MLB pieces.

It’s an unenviable spot, but that’s life for many small- and mid-market clubs with payrolls in the bottom half of MLB. Unpopular as the Hader trade was, the Brewers secured Esteury Ruiz in that swap — in addition to a near-MLB-ready rotation piece in Robert Gasser — and just months later flipped Ruiz to acquire five years of control over slugging catcher William Contreras.

The acquisition of Contreras (and righties Joel Payamps and Justin Yeager) pushed back on any notion that the Brewers were rebuilding. Contreras was a win-now piece with less team control (albeit by just one year) than the prospect surrendered to add him. He’ll step right into the heart of the lineup. The younger brother of Willson Contreras, William slashed .278/.354/.506 with 20 round-trippers in 376 plate appearances last season. His defense is a work in questionable at best, but Milwaukee has developed a reputation as one of the better clubs at improving catchers’ defense (as Omar Narvaez can attest). If Contreras can even be just slightly below-average in terms of framing and overall defense, he could rate among the game’s best all-around backstops.

The rest of Milwaukee’s whopping eight trades were more minor — depth moves that came at little expense to the farm or MLB roster. Out-of-options righties Bryse Wilson and Javy Guerra give Milwaukee a seventh/eighth rotation candidate and a flamethrowing bullpen wild card, respectively. Neither is guaranteed to make it through spring training, but the cost was cash and a PTBNL, so there’s little harm in rolling the dice on a pair of somewhat interesting right-handers.

Owen Miller, also picked up for a PTBNL, gives Milwaukee a right-handed-hitting depth piece who faded after a hot start with Cleveland in 2022. Milwaukee knows catcher Payton Henry quite well, having drafted him in 2016 and traded him to the Marlins in 2021 to acquire John Curtiss. He returns as a slugging third or fourth catcher who’s yet to hit above Double-A but cost only a Dominican Summer League lottery ticket (18-year-old Reminton Batista).

On the free-agent front, the Brewers stayed true to form and eschewed big-money deals, instead waiting out some potential bargains who all signed after the new year. A one-year, $4.5MM to bring southpaw Wade Miley back to the organization was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time, with Burnes, Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, Aaron Ashby and Wilson already on the roster. Just a month later, the Brewers announced that both Ashby and righty Jason Alexander were out at least a month of the regular season due to shoulder troubles. Miley suddenly looked like a more sensible addition, whether the Brewers knew at the time of the deal that their rotation was compromised or whether that proved to be sheer serendipity.

With Miley stepping in behind Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Lauer, it seemed as though the out-of-options Houser could find himself moved to another club with a clear rotation vacancy. That could still potentially come to pass, but with Ashby and Alexander ailing, the rotation depth is thinner. Houser’s the next man up in the event of an injury to any of the top five, and with a reasonable $3.6MM salary and two seasons of club control remaining, the Brewers aren’t going to just give him away even if there’s no rotation spot open.

Anderson is a classic buy-low candidate on the heels of a non-tender from the Marlins. Shoulder and back injuries have derailed his once-promising trajectory, as he’s only appeared in 165 games and posted a tepid .233/.321/.359 batting line over the past two seasons. Prior to that, he was one of Miami’s best players. From 2018-20, Anderson split time between third base and right field, batting .266/.350/.436 in Miami’s pitcher-friendly home park. Picking him up at a $3.5MM price point has the potential to prove one of the offseason’s best bargains for any club, if he can recapture that peak form.

The defensive versatility Anderson offers shouldn’t be undersold. It may already be coming into play, in fact. While it looked early on as though he’d handle the bulk of the work at the hot corner, that’s no longer certain. Tyrone Taylor, the Brewers’ lone righty-swinging outfielder, is dealing with an elbow sprain that’ll cost him at least the first month of the season. Anderson can slide into right field, with Luis Urias slotting back in at the hot corner and Turang — assuming he shows well this spring — taking up everyday reps at second base. If Taylor returns as quickly as the Brewers hope, Anderson can either slide back to third base and push Urias into a utility role — or the Brewers can simply deploy Taylor as a traditional fourth outfielder. Even the Milwaukee brass probably doesn’t quite know how it’ll all shake out, but the mere fact that there are multiple courses of action to ponder is a testament to Anderson’s flexibility.

Beyond that group, most of Milwaukee’s offseason transactions exist around the periphery of the roster. Outfielder Blake Perkins landed a 40-man roster spot due to his ability to play all three positions and a .246/.357/.456 showing between Double-A and Triple-A with the Yankees last year. It’s a league-minimum deal if he’s in the Majors, and if not, he gives Milwaukee some depth.

The team inked veteran lefty Justin Wilson to a one-year contract with a 2024 club option as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. He can perhaps help down the stretch, and if he returns to form, a net $2.35MM option on him for 2024 makes this a vintage Brewers type of move.

Minor league deals with veterans are commonplace, but Luke Voit and Tyler Naquin are fairly high-profile names to receive such deals, given Voit’s pre-injury track record and Naquin’s performance in Cincinnati over the past couple seasons. The injury to Taylor thins the outfield and seemingly increases Naquin’s chances of landing a roster spot. If the team instead prefers to push Winker into more of an everyday outfield role, that could help Voit’s chances. Right-handed bats Mike Brosseau and Keston Hiura make Voit perhaps redundant, but Hiura could be in for a make-or-break spring himself. The former first-rounder and top prospect is out of minor league options and has never replicated his huge rookie year, struggling with massive strikeout rates and poor defense at multiple positions in the seasons since.

Just as there’s uncertainty surrounding the final bench spots, there are questions in the bullpen. Milwaukee did little to address the relief corps, adding only a trio of out-of-options righties via trade: Wilson, Guerra and Payamps. Of the bunch, Payamps is coming off the best season and is the likeliest to make the roster. If Milwaukee carries all three, they’ll join Houser and Matt Bush as out-of-options arms in the bullpen, leaving Milwaukee with minimal flexibility.

It’s a big bet on a largely unproven group, but the Brewers seem comfortable with a back-end featuring All-Star Devin Williams, Bush and breakout rookie Peter Strzelecki (2.83 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate in 35 innings). Southpaw Hoby Milner quietly enjoyed a nice 2022 season as well. Milwaukee makes enough moves around the edges of the roster that it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they move on from a less-established, out-of-options arm in the name of greater flexibility, but spring training will serve as a proving grounds for Wilson and Guerra.

In the outfield, the Brewers will hope that even with Renfroe gone, they can get a resurgence from Yelich and lean on a combination of Winker, Anderson, Taylor (once healthy) and perhaps Naquin in the corners. They didn’t add a center fielder, which is likely reflective of the thin market at the position, Taylor’s ability there and the organization’s faith in former first-rounder Garrett Mitchell, who hit .311/.373/.459 in 68 plate appearances as a rookie last year. The 24-year-old whiffed in 41% of those plate appearances and was propped up by a ludicrous .548 BABIP, but Mitchell also batted .287/.377/.426 across three minor league levels with far less concerning strikeout numbers. Behind him are prospects Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer, both of whom made some top-100 lists in the offseason. Both annihilated Triple-A pitching in 2022 and both have experience at all three outfield slots. Outfielder Jackson Chourio, meanwhile, is one of the top ten prospects in the entire sport. He’ll turn just 19 this weekend but already briefly reached Double-A in 2022. That youth makes him a long shot for 2023, unless the Brewers put him on a Juan Soto-esque fast track.

For all the fretting post-Renfroe/Wong, the Brewers still have a dominant rotation, one of the game’s best relievers, and a lineup with several solid regulars and multiple intriguing youngsters (Mitchell, Turang, with Frelick and Wiemer looming). Neither Pirates nor the Reds are threats in the NL Central, with both at differing stages of their rebuilding processes. The Cubs are improved but still building up and may be another year from truly reemerging. They could beat expectations and find themselves in the race, but right now, the division again looks like a battle between Milwaukee and St. Louis.

The Brewers have a good shot at competing, and if they get to the postseason, the presence of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Williams is so formidable that they can’t be counted out. But if things are more borderline this summer or they’re totally out of it, Burnes, Woodruff and Adames could become some of the most fascinating (and expensive) names on the market.

One way or another, we’re nearing the end of this group’s run together, but the Brewers have proven that they’re willing to make difficult trades in the name of establishing a new core, and they’ve managed to be competitive more often than not under the Stearns/Arnold regime. We’ll see if that changes with Stearns stepping to the side.

How would you grade the Brewers’ offseason?

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays are known for their roster turnover and this offseason was no exception as they made many trades. However, most of the moves were around the edges of their roster, meaning they will go into 2023 with a fairly similar squad to the one that just won 86 games and made the playoffs for a fourth straight year. It’s possible they could have better results this season simply by having better health outcomes, though they also made one significant free agent splash to upgrade the squad.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $11MM
Total spending: $40MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The injury bug hit the Rays pretty hard in 2022, as only four pitchers on the staff topped 80 innings pitched and only four position players got into more than 115 games. Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe and others missed significant time. But the club leaned on its trademark depth and still managed to squeeze into the postseason for a fourth straight year.

As the offseason began, the first item on the agenda was a roster crunch, a common issue for a club that stockpiles depth and runs tight budgets. They had to make some tough decisions due to a 19-player arbitration class and a number of players who needed to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Those tough decisions led to the departure of a few long-tenured Rays.

Defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier had his option turned down after a 2022 season ended by hip surgery. Ryan Yarbrough was non-tendered after another season of passable but fairly uninspiring results. Nick Anderson was placed on waivers after two straight seasons mostly lost to injury, later clearing and signing with Atlanta. Ji-Man Choi could have been retained for one more season via arbitration but was instead flipped to the Pirates. J.P. Feyereisen still had four years of club control but was traded to the Dodgers as he is expected to miss most of the upcoming season due to shoulder surgery. Along with a few other swaps, the Rays ended up making eight trades in a span of about a month, from mid-November to mid-December. Those moves helped clear out some salary and some roster space, along with the free agent departures of Corey Kluber, Mike Zunino and David Peralta.

It feels strange to look at all of that roster churn and characterize it as stability, but the club didn’t really subtract a core performer, at least from last year’s club. Some other offseasons have seen the Rays part with notable players like Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows or Blake Snell, but this year’s departures weren’t quite as prominent. Players like Kiermaier, Zunino, Feyereisen and Anderson missed significant time last year and weren’t really factors very often, if at all. Kiermaier has been a key cog on the team for the past decade, though he’s often been limited by injuries, including being held to just 63 contests last year. It’s a similar story for Zunino, who has been the club’s primary catcher for the past four years but only got into 36 games last season.

Arguably, the club’s biggest loss from last year is Kluber, as he made 31 starts with a 4.34 ERA. That’s not exactly within range of his previous Cy Young form, but that still had value to a club that dealt with so many injury absences.

It’s possible that the club recognized this, as their most significant offseason splash was to replace Kluber in the rotation. Zach Eflin was signed to a three-year, $40MM deal. When compared to some of the other free agent deals signed around the league, it might not seem that significant. However, that was the only major league deal that the Rays gave out this winter, and the $40MM guarantee is the largest they’ve given to a free agent in the history of the franchise.

Eflin, 29 in April, has spent his entire big league career thus far with the Phillies, serving as a solid mid-rotation option. Over the past five years, he’s tossed 531 2/3 innings with a 4.16 ERA. It’s possible that he could find another gear, as he’s kept his FIP, SIERA and xERA under 4.00 in each of the past three seasons. The Rays have shown a penchant for helping players maximize their potential and maybe they’ve found a solid candidate here, showing their faith with that huge commitment, relative to their standards.

But it’s not without risks as Eflin has continually battled knee issues and only once topped 130 innings in a major league season, which was back in 2019. In 2017, a then 22-year-old Eflin admitted to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that he’d already been dealing with knee pain for 10-12 years. He felt good after surgery at that time but had to go under the knife again in 2021 and also missed a couple months with knee issues last year. That doesn’t exactly paint a picture of Eflin being a solid bet for the largest free agent investment the club’s ever made, but there were fairly similar concerns around Kluber a year ago. Perhaps the Rays have a plan in mind for how to keep Eflin healthy and effective all year long.

The club was also connected in rumors to other players this offseason, including big names like Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Sean Murphy. Ultimately, none of those came to fruition, leaving the main storylines in Tampa as the Eflin signing and the batch of trades. Most of the players that came back in those deals are still young and a ways off from contributing. That means the 2023 club will be fairly reliant on better health from the incumbent players, in addition to the club’s annual tradition of funneling minor leaguers onto the major league roster.

Eflin will jump into a rotation that will be without Baz for much or perhaps all of the season, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. Glasnow, who missed almost all of 2022 from his own Tommy John recovery, was hoping for a fully healthy season here in 2023. He’s currently dealing with an oblique strain that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks, but he should be able to take a spot once he gets past that. With Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs still in the mix, the rotation seems to be in decent shape. While Glasnow is out, they might have to do some of their bullpen games or opener days, but they also have depth options in Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming. Prospect Taj Bradley could launch himself into the mix at some point as well, having reached Triple-A last year.

On the position player side, much of the same crew from last year will be back, despite the aforementioned roster shuffling. With Choi gone, first base could perhaps be manned by Yandy Díaz, freeing up the hot corner for Isaac Paredes, though Díaz could still see some time at third going forward. First base could also be manned by Harold Ramírez at times, with he and Diaz perhaps taking turns as the designated hitter. In the middle infield, the club will be hoping for better health from both Franco and Lowe, who were limited by injuries to 83 and 65 games last year, respectively.

In the outfield, the post-Kiermaier era will start with Jose Siri taking over in center. He didn’t hit much last year but was great in the field and on the base paths. He’s got a solid floor and could be a great contributor if he can cut down on the strikeouts. That’s a big “if” though, since he’s gone down on strikes in 33.4% of his plate appearances thus far, with fairly similar rates in Triple-A and Double-A. Since he turns 28 in July, it remains to be seen how much more rope the Rays will give him to correct that issue.

Randy Arozarena and Manuel Margot are still around and should be flanking Siri out on the turf. Both the infield and the outfield will be bolstered by depth options who could force their way into more playing time as the season goes along. Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, Luke Raley, Curtis Mead, Vidal Bruján and Josh Lowe are all on the 40-man roster and can all play multiple positions. Depending on health and performance, they all could get slotted in somewhere at some point. Mead seems to be particularly highly valued by the club, as they have reportedly been discussing an extension despite the fact that he’s yet to make his major league debut. Brujan used to be in that position, as he was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has slashed a dismal .150/.207/.231 in his first 188 MLB plate appearances.

The club had at least some desire to upgrade behind the plate since they were interested in Murphy, but they didn’t ultimately make a move. This is one area of the roster where the club feels a bit vulnerable, with Christian Bethancourt, Francisco Mejía and René Pinto the three backstops on the roster. Bethancourt had a solid season in 2022, but that was his first major league action since 2017, as he had been in the minors and the KBO in the interim. Mejia was solid in 2021 but disappointed last year, both at the plate and behind it. Pinto has just 25 games in the majors but struck out in 42.2% of his plate appearances in that time.

In the bullpen, despite losing Feyereisen, Raley and others, they still have an enviable collection of intriguing arms. It includes Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Jalen Beeks, Garrett Cleavinger and more. Given the club’s ability to produce quality relievers seemingly at will, a few surprising names could jump into this mix later in the summer.

Turning to the long-term picture, the Rays added some cost certainty by agreeing to extensions with three players. Springs, Fairbanks and Diaz all put pen to paper this winter, locking in some future earnings. In exchange for that financial security, each of them pushed back their respective trips to free agency. Including the club options that the Rays now have on all three players, Fairbanks relinquished one free agent season, Diaz two, and Springs three. Those extensions theoretically give the club a bit more continuity in the years to come, but that might not necessarily be the case. An extension doesn’t mean a trade is off the table. Snell was extended going into 2019 but was traded to the Padres less than two years later.

Another piece of the long-term picture that needs to come into focus is the stadium. Both the club and the league have been open about the fact that an upgrade is needed over Tropicana Field. The team’s lease on the Trop goes through 2027, which puts some pressure to get solutions in place. The latest updates are that the mayor of St. Petersburg has given his support to the proposed redevelopment plan. The next step is that city council needs to approve a term sheet, which is currently being negotiated. Once it’s determined what funding commitments will come from the city, Pinellas County and the Rays, it’s possible the term sheet could be agreed upon by this summer. Making progress on this front will have implications not just for the Rays but for the league as well, as commissioner Rob Manfred has repeatedly stated that expanding beyond the current 30 major league teams won’t happen until both the Rays and A’s find solutions for their respective stadium situations.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Rays offseason review, we hosted a Rays-focused chat on March 9. You can click here to read the transcript.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Wednesday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

The White Sox made additions as expected at left field, second base, and in the rotation.  GM Rick Hahn brought in a new manager and largely stayed out of the trade market, resulting in a team that needs to see increased production from incumbents.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The White Sox kicked off their offseason with the hire of Pedro Grifol as manager.  The 52-year-old former Royals coach will hopefully serve as a breath of fresh air after Tony La Russa’s two-year tenure.  Perhaps to compensate for Grifol’s lack of managing experience, Charlie Montoyo will serve as his bench coach.  Jose Castro is the new hitting coach, also taking on this role for the first time.  He’ll be assisted by another new addition, Chris Johnson.

After making fairly obvious calls to exercise Tim Anderson’s option and decline that of Josh Harrison, the club was given an extra $8MM to play with due to a surprising decision by AJ Pollock.  Pollock chose a $5MM buyout over a $13MM player option, despite a disappointing season.  He ended up signing with the Mariners for $7MM, sacrificing a million bucks in the process, but finding what he presumably feels is a better situation for playing time.  That’s a bit odd, because the only sure thing in Chicago’s outfield at that point was the oft-injured Luis Robert.  Pollock explained this month to The Athletic’s Corey Brock, “I just felt for me and for the team, in talking with them, there would be a better fit somewhere else.”

At November’s GM Meetings, Rick Hahn noted he expected to be more active this offseason in trades as opposed to free agency.  Not long after that, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine noted that the Sox “[had] their eye on” Oakland catcher Sean Murphy.  Murphy, of course, would wind up with the Braves in a December trade that also brought William Contreras to Milwaukee.  James McCann was also traded this offseason, while free agency included catchers Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, Tucker Barnhart, Mike Zunino, Austin Hedges, Curt Casali, and Luke Maile.

Given those catching options and their prices, Hahn chose to stand pat.  The Sox will stick with incumbents Yasmani Grandal and Seby Zavala behind the dish.  After a terrible 2022 season marred by October ’21 knee surgery, Grandal has spent this offseason training with Blackhawks strength and conditioning coach Paul Goodman, according to James Fegan of The Athletic.

It was clear the White Sox were going to add a starting pitcher this winter, and in late November they reached an agreement with Mike Clevinger.  Clevinger, 32, had a middling post-Tommy John surgery season in ’22 for the Padres, particularly over his last 13 starts including the postseason.  Unbeknownst to the White Sox at that time, Clevinger was under investigation by MLB following allegations of domestic violence.  Earlier this week, MLB announced that they “will not be imposing discipline on Mr. Clevinger in connection with these allegations.”

Shortly after the Clevinger agreement in November, longtime White Sox star Jose Abreu agreed to a three-year, $58.5MM deal with the Astros.  At the age of 36, we thought Abreu would be limited to two-year offers.  The Guardians reportedly offered three years as well, though at an unknown average annual value.  Abreu later commented through an interpreter that the White Sox made a “really good offer” of unknown value.  But unlike the first time Abreu approached free agency, the White Sox did not seem likely to retain him.  They’ve lost their best hitter from 2022, but did open up first base for Andrew Vaughn as expected.  Vaughn logged 645 innings in the corner outfield spots for the Sox last year and struggled defensively.

With limited payroll space, it seemed in December that the White Sox were at least willing to discuss closer Liam Hendriks in trades.  Such concerns took a backseat to the unfortunate news in January that Hendriks would undergo treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.  As Hahn put it in a statement, “Our thoughts and reactions at this time are for Liam the person, not Liam the baseball player. I know the entire Chicago White Sox organization, our staff, his teammates, and certainly White Sox fans, will rally in support of Liam and Kristi during the coming months.”

In my October offseason outlook for the White Sox, I suggested that Pollock and Adam Engel might continue to serve as the backup plan in center field, given Luis Robert’s injury history.  Pollock chose free agency, and the club non-tendered Engel.  Instead, the White Sox added Jake Marisnick, Billy Hamilton, and Victor Reyes on minor league deals.  Leury Garcia has also played some center field, but in general, I expected the Sox to add a better safety net for Robert.

The White Sox did address their left field situation in a decisive way, signing Andrew Benintendi to a five-year, $75MM contract that ranks as the largest deal in franchise history.  Coming off a season in which he hit five home runs in 521 plate appearances, we were surprised to see Benintendi land a five-year deal.  But as MLBTR’s Steve Adams put it, the 28-year-old Benintendi is a high-floor player who has “settled in as a contact-oriented left fielder who draws walks, rarely strikes out, and provides quality defense.”  It seems that the Sox at least explored trade options before signing Benintendi, as they were connected to the Arizona outfield surplus before the Diamondbacks traded Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays.

While the White Sox reportedly expressed interest in Royals infielder Nicky Lopez in late January, he has not been traded to date.  The free agent market offered second base capable players such as Brandon Drury, Jean Segura, Aledmys Diaz, and Adam Frazier.  Plenty of middle infielders were traded, such as Kevin Newman, Kyle Farmer, Kolten Wong, Miguel Rojas, Luis Arraez, and Adalberto Mondesi.  The Sox instead opted to bring Elvis Andrus back on an affordable $3MM deal in February.

Andrus, 34, has yet to play second base in his 14-year MLB career, but he’ll do so for the White Sox.  He’ll also be available as a capable backup for shortstop Tim Anderson, who has played in about 62% of Chicago’s games since 2021.  Though a certain portion of the White Sox fanbase would like to move on from Anderson, the club conveyed to potential suitors that they would not be trading him, reported Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic during the Winter Meetings.

Anderson, 29, is under team control through 2024 via a club option.  Speaking to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin in February, it sounds like Anderson would prefer some clarity on his future with the club.  He said, “I’m on two option years, and we let it get here and it’s like, dang, I kind of want to know where my feet are going to be at the next whatever years it is and I want to know where I’m going to be at.”  He also made quite clear he’d like to stay.  Anderson’s heir apparent, former first-round pick Colson Montgomery, could be knocking on the door of the Majors when Anderson enters his contract year.

Turnover has been constant in right field for the White Sox in recent years.  Grifol and the White Sox would like to see 24-year-old prospect Oscar Colas win the everyday job, with Gavin Sheets, Leury Garcia, and Marisnick considered other options.  Eloy Jimenez is primarily expected to serve as designated hitter, but may play right field occasionally.  Colas has only seven games at the Triple-A level, but has a chance to seize the job early this year.

Hahn’s other offseason moves were around the margins, grabbing Nick Avila in the Rule 5 draft and acquiring cheaply-available arms like Franklin German, Gregory Santos, and A.J. Alexy.

While Hahn likely entertained more trades than the ones that reached the rumor mill, ultimately his offseason was a predictable one.  The chances of the 2023 White Sox mostly rest on players that were already in-house.  Specifically, it will boil down to seven players who disappointed due to some combination of injury and underperformance in 2022.  Anderson, Robert, and Jimenez have been unable to stay healthy the past two years.  Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, and Lance Lynn combined for 15.9 WAR in 2021 and 4.2 in ’22, a difference of nearly 12 wins.

Though the club can’t count on big offense from Andrus or Colas, the other seven members of the team’s likely starting lineup all project as above average hitters.  The team’s rotation is fronted by Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease, while Lynn and Giolito should be solid if not aces.  Even without Hendriks, a bullpen fronted by Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Joe Kelly, and Reynaldo Lopez could be formidable.

The 2023 White Sox are a team that is surprisingly easy to dream on, but also a team light on depth in certain spots.  If Grandal struggles again, Seby Zavala isn’t likely to provide much offense from the catcher spot.  There are some backup plans for Anderson and Moncada, but the outfield looks thin if Robert goes on the IL or Colas doesn’t hit the ground running.  Similarly, the rotation has question marks in the fourth and fifth spots with Michael Kopech and Clevinger and has little room to sustain injuries.

While the 2022 season left a bad taste in fans’ mouths, FanGraphs suggests the AL Central is mostly a toss-up among the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox.  It’ll be interesting to see what this post-hype team can do if key players stay healthy.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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Within days of winning the World Series, the Astros parted ways with their general manager. They went with an uncertain front office for a few months but made a few early splashes. Things quieted down before Houston brought in their new GM, who has already set out to put his stamp on the organization in Spring Training.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $43MM
Total spending: $105MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Even as the Astros were barreling towards the second championship in franchise history, whispers of conflict behind the scenes began to trickle out. Rumors of a strained relationship between general manager James Click and manager Dusty Baker and, to an even greater extent, between Click and owner Jim Crane mounted towards season’s end. Even the team getting to the pinnacle of the sport couldn’t stop the situation from reaching a tipping point.

In the days after the World Series parade, Crane made one-year extension offers to Baker and Click — both of whom had been on expiring deals. The longtime manager accepted and will be back for a fourth season at the helm. Click, on the other hand, rejected an offer he and many throughout the industry considered below standard for an executive whose team had just won a championship. Crane responded by dismissing him, setting the stage for an almost unprecedented GM search on the heels of a title.

While the front office uncertainty loomed over much of the offseason, Crane consistently maintained he didn’t view it as a pressing hole to plug. The owner himself stepped further into day-to-day baseball operations with help from assistant GMs Andrew Ball and Bill Firkus and from longtime Houston first baseman Jeff Bagwell. The Astros faced some immediate roster decisions as a handful of key players were headed to the open market.

Houston struck early with one of their top free agents. During the five-day window between the end of the World Series and the official start of free agency — a time when clubs have exclusive negotiating rights with their own players — the Astros kept reliever Rafael Montero off the market on a three-year, $34.5MM deal. The righty was coming off the best season of his career, posting a 2.37 ERA with above-average strikeout and grounder numbers. He’d been a crucial piece of an excellent relief corps. Retaining Montero kept the group mostly intact, although Houston did buy out deadline pickup Will Smith and allow him to join the Rangers.

Even with Montero returning, Houston faced the potential departures of a handful of key players from last year’s club. None loomed larger than the defending Cy Young award winner. Justin Verlander had returned from a Tommy John surgery to throw 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball during his age-39 season. He has shown no signs of slowing down with age and/or injury and made the obvious decision to decline a $25MM player option for the upcoming campaign.

Houston and Verlander were in contact early in the winter. Crane even went on record to indicate Verlander was seeking a deal that approached the three years and $130MM that Max Scherzer had received from the Mets the previous offseason. Yet reports suggested Houston wasn’t prepared to go to those lengths for a pitcher who’d turn 40 before Opening Day. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle suggested the Astros were offering between $60MM and $70MM over two seasons.

The market also valued Verlander at two years but at a loftier annual price. Verlander ended up reuniting with Scherzer in Queens, matching his record $43.333MM average annual value over two seasons. The total guarantee checked in around $86.667MM, quite a bit higher than Houston’s reported offer. After four and a half seasons, Verlander moved on. The Astros never seemed to seriously consider replacing him, instead moving everyone else in a still strong rotation up a peg.

Beyond Verlander, Houston also saw Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and deadline acquisitions Christian Vázquez and Trey Mancini hit the open market. Not coincidentally, Houston was rumored to be in the market for players at first base, catcher and in left field. Initial reports suggested the Astros were targeting Anthony Rizzo to replace Gurriel. When Rizzo promptly re-signed with the Yankees, Houston pivoted to arguably the top first baseman available in free agency.

The Astros made José Abreu their biggest external addition of the winter. The 2020 AL MVP inked a three-year, $58.5MM deal in late November. There’s risk in buying the age 36 through 38 campaigns for a player who is limited to the bottom of the defensive spectrum, but Abreu should bring quite a bit more offensive punch than Gurriel provided in a down 2022 season. A career .292/.354/.506 hitter, Abreu posted a .304/.378/.446 line with 15 home runs in 157 games during his final year with the White Sox.

To address left field, Houston checked in on such players as Michael Conforto and Andrew Benintendi. Rather than splurge on either, they ultimately circled back to Brantley as their lefty-swinging left field/designated hitter option. Coming off season-ending shoulder surgery and headed into his age-36 campaign, Brantley was limited to a one-year deal. Yet he still secured $12MM on the strength of offensive production that remains excellent when he’s healthy enough to take the field. Brantley walked more than he struck out over 277 plate appearances last season, hitting .288/.370/.416 with five homers and 14 doubles.

The trio of Montero, Abreu and Brantley ended up comprising all of Houston’s major league free agent acquisitions. Their catcher pursuit came up short. Houston reportedly put forth a multi-year offer to top free agent backstop Willson Contreras but saw the longtime Cub instead join the Cardinals on a five-year, $87.5MM deal. The gap between Contreras and any other free agent catcher was massive, and Houston ultimately decided to roll with their internal options after missing out on the one catcher who could’ve added another middle-of-the-order presence. While the Astros were at least loosely tied to lower-tier veterans like Tucker Barnhart, they’re going to move forward with Martín Maldonado for another season.

Houston acquired Vázquez last summer as a veteran backup to Maldonado but allowed him to depart in free agency. With Jason Castro retiring, Houston seems set to turn to a less experienced option as Maldonado’s #2. Former first-round draftee Korey Lee is a strong defender with some power but significant strikeout concerns. Yainer Díaz had a breakout 2022 showing in the upper minors and brings the opposite profile: an advanced bat but questions about his defense. They’ll battle for the backup job and potentially for longer-term run as the organization’s catcher of the future, since the 36-year-old Maldonado will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign.

The rest of the position player group is straightforward. Abreu will man first base. Jose Altuve is back at second, with Jeremy Peña having secured shortstop behind an excellent rookie season. Alex Bregman returns to solidify the hot corner. Brantley, when healthy, will split his time between left field and designated hitter. Yordan Alvarez will do the same, with the club aiming to get their star slugger a little more defensive work than he’s logged in years past. Kyle Tucker is one of the sport’s best right fielders on both sides of the ball.

To the extent there’s a position battle, it looks like it’d be in center field. Chas McCormick has consistently produced over his first two big league campaigns, though the organization has seemed reluctant to anoint him their long-term center fielder. McCormick should have a leg up on the job after playing well during the club’s postseason run. Baker has suggested this spring that Jake Meyers is still in the mix, though, and utilityman Mauricio Dubón could garner some consideration as well.

Dubón is out of minor league option years and figures to be on the MLB roster as a depth player. He and rookie David Hensley could take on some utility responsibilities after Houston lost Aledmys Díaz to free agency. The Astros also brought in infielder Rylan Bannon on a waiver claim from the Cubs. Their only trade of the offseason was the acquisition of depth corner outfielder Bligh Madris from the Tigers for cash.

Houston did even less to augment the pitching staff, showing plenty of faith in their in-house options. With Verlander gone, Framber Valdez assumes the role of staff ace. He’s followed by Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy. A healthy Lance McCullers Jr. would be in the mix but he’s not going to be ready for Opening Day after suffering a muscle strain in his right arm. That pushes top prospect Hunter Brown into the rotation. It’s still a strong top five but the depth behind that group is a little thinner than it has been in recent seasons.

There are no such concerns about a bullpen that again looks to be one of the league’s best. Montero returns to join Ryne Stanek, Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Bryan Abreu among the bridges to closer Ryan Pressly. It’s a group that skews right-handed, but that has been the case for a few seasons and the Astros have been no worse for wear. Houston added southpaw Matt Gage off release waivers from Toronto to compete with the likes of Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski in that regard. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Astros ran out all right-handed bullpens at points.

After an initial flurry of activity early in the winter, Houston was mostly quiet from December onwards. While their work with the roster faded into the background, the organization took a few months to put their new leadership structure in place. At the end of January, they finalized a deal to bring in Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager.

Brown is a first-time GM but has played an integral part in building the core of an Atlanta team that won the World Series two seasons ago. He hasn’t had a chance to put his stamp on the roster with any external pickups considering he was hired after the free agent and trade markets were all but finished. Yet he’s already shown one aspect that could help define the next few seasons of Astros baseball: an affinity for contract extensions.

Since taking the helm, Brown has gone on record about a desire to sign players like Tucker, Valdez, Altuve and Bregman to long-term deals. No organization has been as successful at locking up key players in recent years than the Braves, and it’s clearly a philosophy he’ll attempt to bring to Houston. He’s already hammered out one long-term deal, signing Javier to a $64MM guarantee to buy out his three arbitration seasons and two would-be free agent years. Javier secured the largest deal ever for a pitcher with between three and four years of service and didn’t need to tack on any below-market club options at the back end. It was a strong contract for the electric young righty, one that hints at the kind of aggressiveness which could define future extension talks.

It stands to reason the front office will spend the rest of Spring Training trying to get another deal(s) like that done. Even if nothing comes to fruition, the Astros remain as well-positioned for success over the coming seasons as any team in the game. Brantley, Maldonado, Stanek and Maton are the only players set to reach free agency at the end of the ’23 campaign. While those are valuable contributors, Houston isn’t at risk of losing any of their true star performers until Altuve and Bregman hit the market over the 2024-25 offseason.

The Astros have had a remarkable past few years, advancing at least as far as the American League Championship Series in six consecutive seasons. They’ve done so despite a decent amount of roster turnover, with only Altuve, Bregman and McCullers remaining from the 2017 World Series team. (Gurriel is still unsigned and could theoretically return, although Brown has implied the club doesn’t feel they have the playing time to offer him.)

Tucker, Peña, Alvarez, Valdez, Javier and Garcia will be around for at least three more seasons. Even as teams like the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers improve, the competitive window in Houston remains wide open. The Astros again look like the favorites in the AL West and will try to become the first repeat World Series winners since the late-’90s Yankees. Legitimate championship aspirations aren’t going away anytime soon.

In conjunction with the Astros’ Offseason In Review, Anthony Franco held a team-specific chat on March 9. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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After five straight dismal seasons, the Orioles finally showed signs of life in 2022. Their farm system truly started producing for the big league club and they won 83 games, their best tally since 2016. That led to hopes of an aggressive winter, with general manager Mike Elias fanning those flames as the offseason was ramping up. But in the end, the club avoided big splashes and stuck to a few modest moves. The future is still bright in Baltimore as the organization is loaded with young talent, but a true pedal-to-the-metal move hasn’t materialized yet.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $23MM
Total spending: $23MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” general manager Mike Elias said in August. “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively. We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”

“The success…has only cemented those plans.  I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying.  I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”

Here’s another Elias comment from August, relayed by Dan Connolly of The Athletic: “I think it’s liftoff from here for this team.”

Those comments surely led to a wide spectrum of interpretations and expectations among the club’s fanbase. Some might have been on the more skeptical side, while others might have been dreaming of a big splash such as one of the top shortstops or an elite starter. The club reportedly did sniff around the “Big Four” shortstops but never really seemed to be close to getting anything done there. They were also connected to starters like Carlos Rodón and Jameson Taillon and others. But again, they never really seemed to close to winning those bids and those players ultimately signed elsewhere.

The club did make a couple of moves for their rotation, but nothing approaching the level of a Rodón or a Taillon. They turned down an $11MM option over veteran Jordan Lyles, opting instead for the $1MM buyout. A few weeks later, they redirected the $10MM they saved to another veteran innings eater in Kyle Gibson. On the surface, that actually seems like something of a downgrade, as Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA last year to Gibson’s 5.05. One could dig deeper and find that Gibson had better peripherals and a lower FIP, and this will perhaps turn into a savvy swap. But in the grand scheme of things, we’re talking about a move that is essentially net neutral.

The other new addition to the rotation is Cole Irvin, acquired from the A’s with each team getting a new prospect in the deal as well. Irvin is somewhat similar to Gibson in that he’s expected to be a competent but not elite member of the rotation. He made 62 starts for the A’s over the past two years with a 4.11 ERA, but will be moving from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum to the AL East. Oriole Park is a bit kinder to pitchers since they moved the left field fence back last year, but Irvin will still have to take the mound in the less-friendly stadiums around the division while facing some strong lineups. He has done well over the past couple of seasons and is cheap since he’s yet to reach arbitration, but there’s some risk here.

There were also some modest additions made to the position player mix. Adam Frazier was brought aboard with a one-year deal to essentially replace Rougned Odor as the veteran second baseman. He’s coming off a down year at the plate but is generally graded well with the glove. His bat has oscillated hot and cold over the years, and he’ll be a nice piece if he can have one of those good seasons. If one of the Orioles’ many infield prospect eventually pushes for a larger share of the second base reps, Frazier has plenty of experience in left field, too.

The club also bought low by acquiring James McCann from the Mets, as he’s coming off two straight disappointing seasons. He still has two years remaining on his four-year, $40.6MM deal, but the Mets are paying down most of it. The O’s will only be responsible for paying $5MM total over those two years. With Adley Rutschman firmly cemented as the backstop for years to come, the O’s only need McCann to be a serviceable backup. If his bat rebounds to where it was in 2019 and 2020, that would be a nice bonus, but they’re not relying on it. Notably, McCann has a strong track record against lefties (despite a poor showing in 2022), and the switch-hitting Rutschman was far better as a left-handed hitter than as a right-handed hitter during his debut season. The O’s aren’t going to immediately relegate Rutschman to platoon status, but McCann still gives them some nice balance in their catching duo.

And what else? Mychal Givens got $5MM to bring an established veteran presence to the bullpen. The depth was fortified by waiver claims on players like Ryan O’Hearn and Lewin Díaz, twice in the latter case. Both players were eventually outrighted to serve as non-roster depth alongside minor league signees like Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero. That’s about it.

As mentioned earlier, fans likely had varying ideas of what to expect this winter with those comments from Elias, but it’s hard to really feel like this is what he had in mind. The club’s current payroll is effectively stagnant relative to the end of last year, with Roster Resource putting a $63MM figure on both tallies. That places them 29th in the league, with only the A’s behind them. After saying he would “significantly” escalate the payroll, it’s hard to characterize that as anything but a disappointment. Was it “a lot of fun,” as Elias predicted, to swap Lyles for Gibson and then add Irvin, McCann, Frazier and Givens?

The disparity between the promise and the delivery might be chalked up to the changes in the offseason environment. Most of the marquee free agents beat the industry projections, often by wide margins. Xander Bogaerts, for instance, got around $100MM more than most expected. Even mid-rotation starters like Taillon and Taijuan Walker did much better than their projections. Perhaps Elias expected to come away with more here and was simply priced out. There would be little sense in raising hopes if he had no intention in coming through.

Regardless of how or why it happened, the O’s are going into 2023 with a fairly similar roster to last year, which isn’t really a bad thing. The club’s farm system truly started to bear fruit at the big league level last year, with prospects like Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers and others debuting and showing strong potential. There’s even more coming through the pipeline with Grayson Rodriguez, one of the best pitching prospects in the league, potentially jumping right into the Opening Day rotation here in 2023.

Those should be fixtures on the big league team this year and for years to come, alongside other incumbents like Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and others. The pitching seems a little less exciting, with Gibson and Irvin joined by some other hurlers that are still trying to cement themselves as viable big leaguers, such as Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and Tyler Wells.

Despite all those prospects jumping up to the big leagues, the system still has more. After Rodriguez, the club also has highly-regarded prospects like DL Hall, Connor Norby, Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday. Aside from Holliday, those guys will all be in the upper levels of the minors and could join the team this year depending on how the year progresses.

Overall, the club is still in great shape for the future, as they are loaded with young and controllable talent. The lack of recent spending means that there’s close to nothing on the books going forward. But it was hoped by many that the young core would be supplemented by aggressive moves to add established veterans. Elias asserted that was the plan and did bring in some complementary pieces, but not really at the level he seemed to imply.

Leaving aside the players for a moment, another key storyline for the Orioles this winter was the apparent turmoil within the Angelos family. Peter Angelos has owned the team for decades but has been suffering poor health since he collapsed in 2017. It seems that his wife Georgia and their two sons, John and Louis, have been in disagreement about how to proceed with the franchise. It was reported in June of last year that John had been approved by MLB as Baltimore’s “control person” but with Louis suing his brother over those developments and others. Georgia then filed a countersuit against Louis, alleging he fabricated claims in his own attempt to seize power. Despite that seemingly ugly battle, an agreement was reached in February whereby all parties agreed to drop their lawsuits.

Amid all those lawsuits were accusations about a potential sale of the club, with John and Georgia both accused of trying to explore the possibility at times. Alongside this, the club declined a five-year lease extension at Camden Yards in February. That creates some uncertainty about the club’s future in Baltimore, but it seems that this is merely a temporary issue. The club is hoping to get a new deal in place that’s 10-15 years in length so that the Maryland Stadium Authority can qualify for a $600MM loan for stadium upgrades. John Angelos has been adamant that the club is not looking to relocate, nor are they seriously pursuing a sale. He’s also said they would like to get into the top half of the league in terms of spending at some point.

That provides some hope for the future, but that didn’t come to fruition this winter. As mentioned, the club’s payroll is higher than last year but still just 29th among the 30 clubs in the league. Despite a winter devoid of splashy moves, the on-field product is still in decent shape. They won 83 games last year and still have plenty of prospects on the rise. However, young players don’t always progress in a linear fashion, and this particular group will be trying to compete in what is arguably the strongest division in the league. There’s light over the horizon, but it’s still not clear how close the new dawn really is.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Orioles’ offseason review, we held an Orioles-focused chat on March 7. You can click here to read the transcript.

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