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2022-23 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays reached a new spending frontier, and reshaped a good chunk of their starting lineup.  Is it enough to bring the Jays some postseason success?

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $41.55MM
Total spending: $89.8MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Teoscar Hernandez led the Blue Jays in plate appearances from 2018-22, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. finished fourth on that list.  So when GM Ross Atkins said in October that the Jays were less likely to change the team’s core during the winter, that ended up not quite being the case, though it’s fair to argue that Atkins perhaps didn’t consider two outfielders slated for free agency in the 2023-24 offseason as true “core” pieces.

Phrasing quibbles aside, Toronto leaves the offseason with a lineup that has considerably more balance between left-handed and right-handed batters, more speed, and more defense than last year’s squad.  On paper, the Jays look better prepared for both the reconfigured outfield dimensions of their home ballpark, and for a 2023 season that will put a broader emphasis on speed and glovework due to the new rules.

The Jays got right to business in revamping their outfield mix, as Hernandez was dealt to the Mariners in one of the offseason’s most notable early moves.  The trade brought the Blue Jays a young arm for the future in Adam Macko, and the more immediate help that Erik Swanson can provide to the bullpen.  Swanson has pitched well for the last two seasons, particularly a 2022 campaign that saw him post a 1.88 ERA and mostly-elite secondary numbers across the board in 53 2/3 relief innings for Seattle.

With the aftershock of the Blue Jays’ bullpen collapse in Game 2 of the wild card series (against the Mariners, ironically) still lingering, it was hard to argue that Toronto didn’t need to bolster its relief corps in some fashion.  Swanson will bring some needed strikeouts to the bullpen, and the Jays figure to use him in many types of high-leverage situations, including some traditional set-up innings in front of closer Jordan Romano.

Hernandez’s departure set the table for the next big outfield move, which also saw the Blue Jays finally dip into their significant amount of catching depth.  It isn’t often that a club moves a consensus top prospect like Gabriel Moreno, yet since Toronto also had Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen lined up behind the plate, all three backstops have been prominently featured in trade rumors for the better part of a year.

The Jays were willing to wait a little longer to finally trade a catcher, as their swap with the Diamondbacks didn’t come together until Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez were already off the free-agent catching market, and after the A’s had moved another major catching trade chip in Sean Murphy.  Arizona was also a team with a notable trade surplus, as its group of left-handed hitting outfielders attracted many teams besides just Toronto.  But, with the D’Backs needing catching and the Jays needed left-handed hitting outfield help, the fit was perfect.  Gurriel’s inclusion along with Moreno finally got the Diamondbacks to budge on Varsho, which was an acceptable result for the Blue Jays since Gurriel was already looking like an expendable asset.

The 26-year-old Varsho is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season, giving the Blue Jays a long-term asset that they see as an outfield cornerstone.  Only 28 players in baseball had a higher fWAR in 2022 than Varsho’s 4.6 number, as he combined excellent defense with strong baserunning and above-average (106 wRC+) offensive production in the form of 27 home runs and .235/.302/.443 slash line in 592 plate appearances.

There is naturally still room for improvement in Varsho’s numbers, particularly when it comes to drawing walks and making contact (Varsho struck out 145 times in 2022).  The Blue Jays are hoping that last season might represent Varsho’s floor as an offensive player, and even if he does have a similar year at the plate, Toronto isn’t going to mind another all-around performance in the 4.6 fWAR range.

Before the trade with Arizona, the Jays had already improved their outfield defense by signing Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM free agent contract.  Kiermaier has been one of baseball’s best defensive players for the better part of the decade, and after being a frequent thorn in Toronto’s side as a member of the Rays, Kiermaier now moves elsewhere in the AL East after Tampa Bay declined their $13MM club option on his services for 2022.

Signing Kiermaier carries some obvious risk, considering that he has been an average offensive player at best during his career, and (most pressingly) a very frequent visitor to the injured list.  Last season was no different, as Kiermaier’s 2022 campaign ended in July when he had to undergo surgery to repair a torn hip labrum.  In theory, this surgery might finally correct what has long been a lingering issue for Kiermaier, yet it is also fair to wonder what Kiermaier has left in the tank as he enters his age-33 season and is coming off yet another substantial injury layoff.

Should Kiermaier again need to miss time, Toronto has a ready-made center field replacement in Varsho, or George Springer might even move back to his old position from his new right field spot.  Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio will figure into the corner outfield picture, with rookie Nathan Lukes also serving in a backup outfield capacity.

The result is a vastly superior defensive outfield, as the Varsho/Kiermaier/Springer alignment from left to right is streets ahead of the Gurriel/Springer/Hernandez trio that Toronto often used in 2022.  Even from a depth perspective, the Jays are in a better position than last year, when injuries to the starters meant a lot of playing time for such replacement-level outfielders as Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, or Jackie Bradley Jr.  Losing Hernandez’s bat may weaken the lineup, or maybe not if Varsho takes a step forward, or if Springer’s move to a less-strenuous outfield position helps him stay on the field more often.

With two left-handed bats in Varsho and Kiermaier added to the lineup, the Blue Jays added a third by signing longtime Giants first baseman Brandon Belt as the primary designated hitter.  Health is again a red flag here, as Belt has battled knee problems for years and underwent surgery on his right knee back in September.  Though those issues surely contributed to Belt’s subpar numbers in 2022, he was posting monster numbers when healthy in 2020-21, hitting .285/.393/.595 with 38 homers in 560 PA over those two seasons.

As with Kiermaier, the Jays have made preparations in case Belt has to miss more time, as any of Toronto’s right-handed bats could get a DH day whenever a left-handed starter is on the mound.  Belt said he felt reinvigorated in the aftermath of his knee surgery, so between good health, the move to a more hitter-friendly park (with more tempting dimensions for left-handed hitters), and less of a worry about defensive shifts, there is reason to think Belt can bounce back from his tough 2022 season.

These new faces will augment the team’s core group of Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, and the now-solidified catching tandem of Kirk and Jansen.  Second base remains a bit of a question mark, but the Blue Jays seem confident that the combination of Merrifield, Biggio, and Santiago Espinal can be productive.  Toronto wasn’t really linked to many notable infield upgrades on the rumor mill this winter, with the exception of agent Scott Boras stating that the Jays “were really after” his client Xander Bogaerts before Bogaerts signed with the Padres.

Exploring big-name acquisitions has become routine for the Toronto front office in the last few years, with Atkins and company at least checking in on a wide array of players as a matter of due diligence.  The 2022-23 offseason was no exception, as the Blue Jays reportedly had varying degrees of interest in such players as Bogaerts, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Rodon, Cody Bellinger, Johnny Cueto, Michael Brantley, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Andrew Heaney, Masataka Yoshida, Kyle Gibson, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo, Robert Suarez, Alex Reyes, and their own most notable free agent in Ross Stripling.

Though some of those signings may have more realistic possibilities than others, the fact that the Blue Jays are able to consider basically any player speaks to the team’s greater financial flexibility.  After spending a club-record $171MM on payroll in 2022, the Jays have boosted that number even further with approximately $211.7MM committed to salaries this season.  This translates to a luxury tax number of roughly $250.5MM, putting the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time and quite close to the secondary Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $253MM.

Big-spending teams like the Yankees and Padres have slightly curbed their spending to stay under particular tiers of tax penalties, and it isn’t known if the Blue Jays might similarly see the second CBT line as an upper limit on their spending.  Still, given how aggressive the Jays have been, it is hard to imagine that the club wouldn’t be willing to surpass the $253MM line if it meant picking up a necessary addition at the trade deadline, for instance.  Exceeding the next tier ($273MM) might be a different story since the Jays would then see their top draft choice in 2023 knocked back ten places in the draft order.  But, the CBT’s impact on other non-financial penalties (such as the draft pick cost and compensation for free agents who reject qualifying offers) is the same for the Blue Jays if their tax figure is anywhere from $233MM to a dollar below the $273MM mark.

The Jays didn’t have any qualms about pursuing a QO free agent this offseason, as the team gave up $500K in international bonus pool money and its second-highest pick in the 2023 draft in order to make its biggest signing of the winter.  It wasn’t any surprise that most of the names on Toronto’s target list were pitchers, and the Blue Jays landed some necessary rotation help by signing Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63MM deal.

The Giants’ inclusion of an opt-out clause allowed San Francisco to entice Stripling away from a possible reunion with the Jays, meaning that Toronto had an even more marked need to find a replacement for Stripling’s quality production.  Bassitt was the answer, as he cashed in on the heels of a strong four-year run with the Athletics and Mets.  With a knack for inducing soft contact and limiting walks, Bassitt has been a thoroughly solid arm, and he’ll line up as the Blue Jays’ third starter behind Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.

Even if the top three has been reinforced, however, an argument can certainly be made that the Jays might have done more at the back end of the rotation.  The Blue Jays are certainly hoping that Jose Berrios will be at worst a good fourth starter if he bounces back from his mediocre 2022 campaign, and fifth starter Yusei Kikuchi is also looking to rebound from a dismal season.

If Kikuchi falters again, the Blue Jays can turn to a group that includes Zach Thompson (acquired in a January trade with the Pirates), non-roster options like Drew Hutchison or Bowden Francis, or Mitch White when he is healthy.  Hyun-Jin Ryu might return from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break, but it’s an open guess as to what Ryu can contribute after his long layoff.  If not Ryu, perhaps top prospects Ricky Tiedemann or Yosver Zulueta might become possibilities by the second half, but overall, there’s a lot of uncertainty about how the Jays’ rotation might look by the end of the season.

The rotation questions only put more pressure on the bullpen, and in speaking of late-season additions, Chad Green was another notable winter signing, joining the Blue Jays on an option-heavy deal that could be as little as a two-year, $8.5MM deal, or as much as a four-year, $29.25MM pact.  Green had Tommy John surgery last May, so he might also be something of an unofficial “deadline acquisition” that is already in the organization.  If Green can make a quick return to anything close to his past form with the Yankees, he’ll be another nice fit for the relief corps.

It was an altogether interesting offseason in Toronto, as the club didn’t exactly overhaul things (not that such an extreme was needed after a 92-win season) but also did more than just add the proverbial finishing touches to the roster.  The Blue Jays will again face stiff competition to return to the playoffs, but just getting into the postseason wouldn’t be satisfactory for a team that clearly has designs on a championship.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review Chat: New York Yankees

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MLBTR will be hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with each entry of our Offseason In Review series. Yesterday, we released the Yankees entry in the series. Click here to read the transcript of today’s Yankees-centric chat.

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners swung some interesting trades to bolster their lineup, but took a very modest dip into the free agent market.  Will it be enough to push this roster from playoff team to World Series contender?

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $8.92MM
Total spending: $8.92MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

It wasn’t surprising that “Trader Jerry” Dipoto swung one of the offseason’s first big trades, as the Mariners president of baseball operations made a quick move in November to land Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays.  Erik Swanson was a huge part of Seattle’s bullpen in 2022 and he carries three years of arbitration control, but the M’s are betting their deep and talented relief corps can pick up the slack of Swanson’s departure, while the lineup was in need of a big bat.

Despite a pair of Silver Slugger Awards on his resume, Hernandez was still perhaps a bit overlooked in Toronto, given the presence of such higher-profile homegrown names as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.  The 30-year-old has a 132 wRC+ over the last three seasons, batting .283/.333/.519 with 73 home runs over his last 1337 plate appearances with consistently sky-high hard-contact rates.  The tradeoff to this production is a lack of walks and a lot of strikeouts, and public defensive metrics haven’t been impressed with Hernandez’s work as a corner outfielder.

Still, having Julio Rodriguez in center field will help cover some of Hernandez’s defensive shortcomings, and adding a reliable slugger as an everyday player immediately answered one of several questions the Mariners faced about their outfield heading into the winter.  While the M’s had several options to flank Rodriguez in the corner outfield positions, it was a list of players either short on proven MLB experience, or coming off underwhelming performances in 2022.

With Hernandez in place, the Mariners could pivot to unloading some of these other outfielders.  Kyle Lewis has played in only 54 games since winning AL Rookie Of The Year honors in 2020, due to both a concussion and recurring knee problems that might make him close to a DH-only player sooner rather than later.  While Lewis still hit well at Triple-A last season and has plenty of upside if he’s healthy, the Mariners instead opted to trade him to the Diamondbacks for a more versatile outfield option in Cooper Hummel.

In fact, this versatility extends behind the plate, as Hummel is a rare catcher/outfielder hybrid who can serve as depth at both positions.  Cal Raleigh is Seattle’s top catching option, and since backup Tom Murphy is coming back from a 2022 season cut short by shoulder surgery, Hummel gives the M’s extra flexibility with their catching mix.

The next outfield-related move also saw the Mariners address their need at second base.  The club’s explorations into keystone help included interest in a Gleyber Torres trade with the Yankees, and at least some interest in Trea Turner and the other top shortstops on the market, with the idea that one of them could be open to moving to second base (since the M’s preferred to keep J.P. Crawford at short).

Instead, the Mariners landed one of their other second-base targets for a player who seemed to have worn out his welcome in Seattle.  Jesse Winker was one of the Mariners’ prize pickups from the 2021-22 offseason, but lingering knee and neck problems seemed to sap his power — Winker had only a .344 slugging percentage in 2022, far below the .504 SLG he posted over his five previous seasons with the Reds.  There was also reportedly some behind-the-scenes discord regarding Winker within Seattle’s clubhouse, and so the M’s decided to move on by trading him and Abraham Toro (who was also expendable due to the Mariners’ other infield depth options) to Milwaukee for Kolten Wong.

2022 was also an uncharacteristic season for Wong, as while he had arguably his strongest year at the plate, his vaunted defense cratered.  Injuries were a factor in this situation as well, as Wong battled some leg problems that turned the three-time Fielding Bible Award winner into a subpar defender at second base.  Assuming Wong is now healthy, there’s plenty of potential for a bounce-back in Seattle, and perhaps even an opportunity for a career year if Wong can regain his defensive form and continued his improved hitting.

Wong isn’t expected to be an everyday contributor, as he’ll be spelled against left-handed pitching by platoon partner Dylan Moore.  While Sam Haggerty might fill this role while Moore recovers from an oblique strain, the M’s certainly consider Moore to be a key piece going forward, as the utilityman was signed to a three-year extension that gives the Mariners additional control over what would have been Moore’s first free agent year.

The last piece of the outfield puzzle was completed when AJ Pollock was signed to a one-year, $7MM deal.  Pollock’s signing sets up another platoon, as the veteran outfielder will be paired with Jarred Kelenic in left field.  This timeshare reflects Pollock’s reduced numbers against right-handed pitching in 2022, while also giving Kelenic regular (yet not full-time) work as he tries to establish himself in the majors.  The former top prospect hasn’t hit at all over his 558 PA as a big leaguer, but a big Spring Training performance has Kelenic and the Mariners hoping he just needed some extra time to adjust.

Between all these moves and the Mariners’ addition of another bounce-back candidate in Tommy La Stella, Dipoto took a measured approach to his lineup additions.  Hernandez, Wong, Pollock, and La Stella are short-term adds, all slated to hit free agency next winter.  Compared to some of the other names to whom the M’s were linked (i.e. Brandon Nimmo, Masataka Yoshida, Andrew Benintendi, and old friend Mitch Haniger), the club clearly opted against making any sort of big splash of a move.

In terms of spending, the Mariners finished 2022 with roughly a $116MM payroll, and Roster Resource now pegs their 2023 payroll at approximately $140.5MM.  That’s not a small increase, but also not a big one either, considering that last fall, RR had Seattle projected for around $131.5MM in spending based on estimated arbitration raises alone.  Hernandez’s $14MM salary for 2023 basically accounts for the rise to $140.5MM, as the Mariners saved a few extra dollars by parting ways with such arb-eligibles as Swanson, Lewis, Toro, Luis Torrens, and Ryan Borucki.

To this end, Dipoto noted during a radio interview in December that the payroll increase is, naturally, a sign the organization isn’t afraid to spend.  Dipoto also pointed to the pricey contract extensions the team reached with Rodriguez and Luis Castillo prior to the end of the 2022 season as further evidence to his point that “raising payroll is doing smart things that evenly balance a team.”  However, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote in December that “multiple MLB sources have indicated that [Dipoto] isn’t operating with the payroll flexibility that was widely anticipated” heading into the offseason.

Since the Mariners’ payroll was in the $160MM range as recently as 2018, it isn’t clear why ownership might have limited spending.  It could be due to lingering after-effects from the pandemic, uncertainty over the Root Sports Seattle regional network even though the Mariners are still the majority (60%) owners, or perhaps just that stretching up to $160MM was something of an outlier for the franchise.  That said, it could be that the front office might be given funds during the season to pick up a needed trade deadline piece, or maybe the M’s are saving room in the budget for a larger pursuit down the road.  Since the Mariners were finalists for Shohei Ohtani when the two-way star first came to North America, it stands to reason the M’s would again have interest when Ohtani enters free agency next offseason, even if his contract demands approach or exceed the $500MM mark.

Speaking of pitching, the Mariners at least checked in on Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets.  This might have been more of a due-diligence pursuit on Seattle’s part, as adding Senga would’ve given the M’s seven rotation candidates, and maybe forced the team’s hand in subsequently trading one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen.  As Opening Day nears, Gonzales and Flexen are still on the roster despite months of trade rumors, as there has been plenty of speculation the Mariners might deal from their rotation surplus.

It could be Dipoto simply never received an offer to his liking for Gonzales or Flexen, and it is fair to assume the M’s wanted a quality return in exchange for a starting pitcher (especially during an offseason that saw so many free agent starters land huge contracts).  After all, the Mariners were under no particular pressure to swing a trade, considering the obvious benefit of simply keeping both Gonzales and Flexen in the fold.  A rotation “surplus” can quickly diminish in the event of an injury or two, and while Seattle has an intriguing wave of pitching prospects on the verge of the big leagues, the club probably prefers having a veteran arm as the top depth option.  The M’s also dealt from their prospect depth in sending Adam Macko to Toronto as part of the Hernandez trade, even if Macko wasn’t expected to reach the majors in 2023.

As noted earlier, the Mariners will be mostly counting on their existing bullpen mix to account for Swanson’s departure.  Some more relief depth was added in the form of minor league signings and lower-profile trades and waiver claims, but the M’s did sign a reliever to a guaranteed deal by adding Trevor Gott for $1.2MM.  Gott posted decent numbers over 45 2/3 innings out of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2022, and while he won’t get the high-leverage assignments that Swanson drew, Gott will bring some experience to the back of the pen.

Seattle’s chances of a deeper run into October might hinge on how much of a step forward their lineup can take, given how the pitching staff still looks like a strength.  The first step for the Mariners is just getting out of the AL West, since the Astros will still be a powerhouse and the Angels and Rangers each made several moves to upgrade themselves over the winter.

How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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The Yankees weren’t the busiest team this winter, opting for a handful of big moves instead of many small ones. That included signing one of the top starting pitcher free agents and retaining the consensus top overall free agent, the face of the franchise and now-captain Aaron Judge.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $89.75MM
Total spending: $573.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

There was little debate about who the top free agent was this offseason. Though there were four excellent shortstops and three aces, Aaron Judge was #1 on just about any list you could find. His 2022 season was one of the greatest in recent memory, even beyond setting the American League single-season home run record with 62. He also posted a .311 batting average, walked in 15.9% of his plate appearances, stole 16 bases and played excellent defense. His 11.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs was the highest by a position player other than Barry Bonds since Mickey Mantle in the ’50s.

It was widely expected that Judge would secure himself a huge contract, most likely to return to the Yanks. Here at MLBTR, we predicted eight years and $332MM, with all four contributors pegging Judge for a return to the Bronx.

That’s not to say that it was a fait accompli. The Yankees seemed to have a legitimate contender in the Giants. Not only did they have a fairly wide open long-term payroll, they were looking for a big free agent strike after a disappointing season. Since Judge was born and raised not too far from San Francisco and still has family in the area, the fit also made sense on a personal level. There was even a terrifying moment for Yankee fans when it seemed as if Judge was indeed going to the Giants, and the Padres almost swooped in and stole the day, but the Yankees eventually got the deal done.

The final contract came in at $360MM over nine years, the largest guarantee ever secured by a free agent. The average annual value of $40MM is the largest ever secured by a position player. The only pitchers who surpassed that were older aces on short-term deals, as Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander each secured AAVs of $43.3MM in their late 30s.

Judge was actually the second Yankee to be brought back after a trip into free agency, as the same had already played out with Anthony Rizzo. In early November, Rizzo opted out of the one year and $16MM remaining on his contract, which was quickly followed by the Yankees giving him a $19.65MM qualifying offer. As the qualifying offer deadline drew close, Rizzo was among those listed as rejecting it. However, just minutes later, it was reported that he and the club had reunited, keeping him as the first baseman in the Bronx.

With Rizzo and Judge both coming back, there will be much continuity with the Yankee roster relative to last year. However, there will be one significant change in the rotation, which the club needed to bolster after they traded Jordan Montgomery and saw Jameson Taillon become a free agent. The top of the starting pitching market featured three guys that stood out above the rest in Carlos Rodón, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander, though each hurler had unique characteristics as a free agent.

Verlander missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery but then returned to post a 1.75 ERA in 2022 and win the AL Cy Young. Going into his age-40 season, he was sure to get a short-term contract with a huge AAV. deGrom is a bit younger, going into his age-35 season, but he had missed significant time in each of the past two seasons. When combined with the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he hasn’t made more than 15 starts in any individual campaign since 2019. But given his excellent results whenever healthy, he was sure to get a big payout one way or another. Rodón, meanwhile, had plenty of injury concerns preceding an excellent 2021 season. He still missed a bit of time and was limited to 24 starts that year, which held him to short-term offers in his first trip to free agency. But he stayed healthy enough in 2022 to make 31 starts with a 2.88 ERA, making the easy decision to opt out of his contract and return to the open market.

MLBTR predicted Rodón would be able to secure the largest guarantee of the three. We pegged deGrom for a larger AAV, but figured his injury concerns would cap him at three years to Rodón’s five. In the end, deGrom was able to get five years and $185MM from the Rangers, $37MM per year on average. As mentioned earlier, Verlander got his high-AAV contract, signing a two-year, $86.6MM pact with the Mets. Rodón had plenty of interest, with clubs like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Rangers, Twins, Giants, Mets, Orioles and Dodgers connected to him in various ways. That led his camp to reportedly look for a seven-year deal or a $200MM guarantee or both. The Yankees reportedly wanted to stick to four or five years, but the sides eventually met in the middle. The final deal of $162MM over six years came up short of deGrom both in terms of guarantee and AAV, but Rodón still handily topped the prediction of five years and $140MM.

Swapping an ace like Rodón in for a solid mid-rotation guy like Taillon is certainly an upgrade, though it’s one that comes with risk. As mentioned, Rodón had an “injury-prone” label before the last two seasons. In the four years from 2017-20, he went on the injured list in each of them. He never topped 20 starts in any of those individual campaigns and started only 41 times in total in that stretch. That included injuries to his shoulder, bicep and elbow. Even in his return to form in 2021, he eventually hit the IL with shoulder fatigue and had diminished velocity down the stretch.

Rodón’s health could be a topic of conversation around the club for the next six years and is in the spotlight already, as he’s going to miss the start of the upcoming season due to a forearm strain. By all accounts, it’s a minor issue and he shouldn’t miss too much time, but it’s not an auspicious start to that commitment. The plan was for Rodón to slot into a powerful rotation next to Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. However, Montas will miss at least a few months due to shoulder surgery and Severino is dealing with a lat strain. With Rodón also out of action for a bit, the club will have to rely on depth options like Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito.

After Rodón, the club’s most notable investment in a new addition was for Tommy Kahnle, and the story there is fairly similar. The 33-year-old righty has often had excellent strikeout stuff, including a previous stint in the Bronx. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2020 and all of his 2021. He returned last year as a Dodger, but went back on the IL in May after just four appearances. After a four-month layoff, he returned in September and pitched well enough to get a two-year, $11.5MM deal from the Yanks. But like Rodón, he’s also set to begin the year on the IL, as Kahnle is dealing with a biceps issue.

The club made a few other moves, including signing a bunch of minor league deals like all teams. But those are the headlines. Some deadline acquisitions from last year like Andrew Benintendi and Matt Carpenter have moved on, but Judge and Rizzo were brought back. The rotation lost Montgomery and Taillon but will have Rodón and Montas, though not to begin the year. The bullpen has lost some familiar faces like Chad Green, Aroldis Chapman and Lucas Luetge, but Kahnle should give them a boost whenever he’s ready. The primary relief weapons now figure to be guys who have taken steps forward in recent years, such as Clay Holmes, Michael King and Wandy Peralta.

All told, the roster turnover is fairly low, relatively speaking. Perhaps the most significant change Yankee fans will see in 2023 will be from within. For many years, the club has turned away from marquee free agent shortstops like Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trea Turner and others, seemingly confident that their future shortstop was currently being cultivated on the farm somewhere. Late in 2022, both Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera got to make their debuts, even factoring into the club’s playoff roster. Not far behind them was Anthony Volpe, who finished in Triple-A. Here in Spring Training, it seems that the process is even further along. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, last year’s primary shortstop, has already been moved into a utility role. The club also seems to like Cabrera in that kind of a role, which leaves the shortstop job open for one of Peraza or Volpe. It was recently announced that Volpe will get the job out of spring, though it’s possible the battle continues beyond the start of the season. Whether it’s on Opening Day or down the line, it’s possible that the two of them take over the middle infield together, eventually pushing Gleyber Torres onto the trade block, but that remains to be seen.

Given the young kids pushing for time, the Yanks apparently pursued trades of some their players that started to seem superfluous. Kiner-Falefa, Torres, Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson were all reportedly floated in talks at various times, though nothing came to fruition, which also contributes to the continuity on the roster. Unless a late spring deal comes together, that group should all be back in action in some form, alongside other holdovers like Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka.

Though the total volume of moves was on the low side, the moves they did make were all significant and have ramifications on the financial side of things. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll at $272MM, with a competitive balance tax figure of $292.5MM. That latter number is just a hair under the fourth tier of the luxury tax, which is $293MM. It was reported in January that the club is reluctant to cross the line, and they have indeed been fairly quiet since then. It’s a bit of a strange place to draw a line in the sand, as going over would lead to a slight increase in their tax rate on further spending, though no other penalties. But every team has a budget and this is apparently where the Yankees stop, at least for now.

It’s possible this could make things a bit tricky for the club throughout the year. If they want to make upgrades at the deadline and still want to avoid that last line, they would be limited to revenue-neutral moves. However, it’s possible that they may be able to clear some space in that time. If the younger players continue to develop as hoped, perhaps the Yanks could then feel better about lining up a trade of Hicks, Donaldson, Torres or Kiner-Falefa, even if it’s mostly about dumping salary and less about getting a return. Donaldson has a CBT hit of $25MM, Hicks is $10MM, Torres is $9.95MM and Kiner-Falefa is $6MM. Those players will have varying levels of interest that could be impacted by the upcoming season, but moving any one of them could give the Yanks a bit more wiggle room under that top CBT threshold.

The American League East figures to be a tough battle yet again, as the division supplied three playoff teams last year, with the Yanks finishing on top and the Blue Jays and Rays securing Wild Card spots. The O’s just missed the postseason last year and are on the rise with an organization stuffed with prospects. The Red Sox were fairly snakebit and ended up in the cellar last year but could get right back in it with better health. The Yankees can’t reasonably expect Judge to have the season of a lifetime every year, so they’ll need others to step up and help him out if they are to repeat as division champs and/or make the postseason for a seventh straight season.

How would you grade the Yankees’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Yankees’ offseason review, we hosted a Yankees-focused chat on March 29. You can click here to read the transcript.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals went into the offseason teasing a payroll spike. They came away with one of the top free agents available early. Things went quiet after the Winter Meetings, leaving the club to rely upon most of the core of last year’s division winner.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $27.5MM
Total spending: $105MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Cardinals won 93 games and an NL Central title last season. Their playoff run proved painfully short, as they were quickly dispatched by the Phillies in the best of three Wild Card series. It sent St. Louis into what had the potential to be an active offseason. Reigning MVP finalist Nolan Arenado had a chance to test free agency. The coaching staff saw some immediate turnover. Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina officially stepped away, leaving the club with a question mark behind the plate for the first time in two decades.

Most of the activity played out quickly. Arenado forewent his opt-out chance. He’ll play out the final five years and $144MM (of which $31MM will reportedly be paid by the Rockies) on his contract. It’s incredible value for the team considering Arenado’s continued excellence on both sides of the ball. That’s particularly true in light of the higher than expected free agent prices for star position players this offseason, which leaves no doubt Arenado left a significant amount of money on the table. That he did so speaks both to his desire for stability and his faith in the organization’s playoff chances over the coming seasons.

As part of the push to keep Arenado around, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak met with the star third baseman to assure him of their competitive goals. Presumably, the club’s payroll was part of those talks, as the St. Louis front office leader also publicly teased an uptick in spending this winter. Mozeliak frankly declared the team would go outside the organization for a new catcher rather than turn to Iván Herrera and Andrew Knizner behind the dish.

Those talking points would come together around six weeks later, but the Cardinals had some intervening business. First was re-signing franchise icon Adam Wainwright for a 19th season. He inked a $17.5MM deal that exactly matched his 2022 salary, though this contract involved deferrals to push $10MM of the money into future years. There was never any question whether Wainwright would sign with another team. The only intrigue was if he’d choose to continue playing or join Pujols and Molina in retirement. The three-time All-Star chose to run things back one more time but has already announced the 2023 campaign will be his last.

Another star of recent franchise history, Matt Holliday, also emerged in the news early in the offseason. After bench coach Skip Schumaker and hitting coach Jeff Albert departed the organization — Schumaker to become Miami’s manager, Albert to step away from the demands of being a lead hitting instructor at the MLB level — Holliday expressed some interest in joining Oli Marmol’s coaching staff. That happened in early November, when the Cards tabbed Holliday as bench coach. Things took another turn when the seven-time All-Star resigned two months later, citing a desire to spend more time with his family. Ultimately, Joe McEwing assumed the bench coach role. Turner Ward was brought in as hitting coach. Dusty Blake got the nod to replace pitching coach Mike Maddux, who stepped down and eventually took the same position in Texas.

While much of the coaching staff was reshuffled, continuity remains an ongoing theme in the front office. Mozeliak and general manager Michael Girsch each signed multiyear extensions, keeping one of the league’s longest-tenured executive pairings in charge. Mozeliak hinted at a succession plan being put in place over the coming seasons — presumably one that’d eventually see Girsch take over baseball operations — but there’s no publicly defined timetable for that transition.

Once Wainwright and Arenado were guaranteed to return, the Cardinals turned their attention to external possibilities. As Mozeliak indicated from the outset, catcher was the top priority. St. Louis was linked to Sean Murphy on the trade front and free agents like Willson Contreras and Christian Vázquez. Contreras, a longtime division rival as a Cub, was the clear top backstop on the open market. While the Cards juggled both trade and free agent possibilities headed into the Winter Meetings, they ultimately pulled off a big free agent strike.

St. Louis inked Contreras to a five-year, $87.5MM guarantee that contains a club option for a sixth season. The second-largest free agent investment in franchise history, the deal also required surrendering their second-highest pick in next year’s draft and $500K of international signing bonus space because Contreras had rejected a qualifying offer. St. Louis felt that a reasonable price to pay for one of the sport’s top offensive catchers. Contreras is coming off a .243/.349/.466, 22-homer showing and has topped the 20 longball mark on four separate occasions. He’s faced some criticism for his receiving and questions about his ability to handle a pitching staff but there are few catchers capable of providing the offensive punch he brings.

The Contreras deal proved to be St. Louis’ big offseason move. Once that was finalized, things went quiet for the bulk of the winter. The Cardinals were loosely linked to other targets. They were on the periphery of the Dansby Swanson market before the Contreras signing. The Cards were at least a speculative fit for a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, particularly since left-hander José Quintana departed in free agency. They checked in on Carlos Rodón before he signed a six-year deal with the Yankees. They were among the numerous teams tied to Miami’s rotation surplus but talks failed to gain traction when the Fish reportedly targeted Lars Nootbaar in a potential Pablo López trade.

Mozeliak said at the start of the offseason that a left-handed bat was on the wishlist but the club didn’t pull that off. At the tail end of the offseason, the Cards were among a number of teams linked to the free agent left-handed relief market. Barring a late signing of the still unsigned Zack Britton, that also won’t manifest in a deal.

Obviously, every team kicks around possible moves that don’t come to fruition. Regardless, it’d be fair for the fanbase to have anticipated more activity after Mozeliak’s early-offseason comments about a payroll spike. St. Louis enters the 2023 season with a player payroll projected in the $179MM – $180MM range by Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’s a franchise record and around $25MM north of last year’s Opening Day mark. The Cardinals did increase spending but didn’t alter their mid-tier expenditures in comparison to the rest of the league. According to Cot’s, they entered 2022 with the 13th-highest payroll in the majors; they’re projected at 14th this season.

Mozeliak himself expressed some amount of frustration with the way things played out, even as he struck an optimistic tone overall. “When we reflect back on the offseason, there were certainly some things we were hoping to do that we weren’t able to accomplish,” he told reporters in January. “A lot of things sort of unfolded or transpired that necessarily didn’t break the way we had hoped. … Do we have the bandwidth to still add to this club throughout the year?  Yes, we do.  Is the market something that had an adverse effect [on] us spending? The answer is of course. The way we operate is that we’re going to invest in what we think are smart investments, prudent, but also investments that we understand could have a backside of negativity or loss.  Having said that, you’re still not going to do something just to do something, and you’re not going to spend just to spend.  We like our team.  If we didn’t like our team, we’d be making adjustments to our team.”

Ultimately, the offseason was defined by one transaction. Aside from Contreras stepping into Molina’s shoes, St. Louis more or less brings back the same roster that ended 2022. Quintana and Corey Dickerson signed elsewhere. Pujols retired. Former top prospect and closer Alex Reyes was non-tendered after losing the entire season to a shoulder injury that required surgery.

Aside from Contreras, the only external additions come at the back of the roster. Minor league infielder José Fermín was acquired from the Guardians for cash. Former Dodgers’ farmhand Guillermo Zuniga secured a 40-man spot in free agency as a hard-throwing reliever who hasn’t topped Double-A. Veteran utilityman Taylor Motter signed a minor league deal and will break camp with the team in a bench role. The Cards brought in southpaw Anthony Misiewicz as bullpen depth after he was designated for assignment by the Royals while taking a flier on Wilking Rodríguez in the Rule 5 draft. Former Nationals catcher Tres Barrera, signed to a non-roster deal over the winter, might surpass Knizner for the backup job.

Despite the lack of other significant transactions, there remains reason for optimism about the upcoming season. The Cardinals have been a model of consistency over the past decade and a half. They’ve shown a knack for churning out quality players through the farm system to continually compete while only occasionally making big free agent moves. Much of the group that won the division will be back.

Paul Goldschmidt pairs with Arenado as perhaps the league’s top corner infield duo. Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman should get the bulk of playing time up the middle, with former top prospect Nolan Gorman an option at second base. The outfield brings back a high-upside trio of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Nootbaar and welcomes one of the game’s best minor league talents. Jordan Walker will break camp after a .306/.388/.510 showing as a 20-year-old in Double-A. It’s not without risk, considering the former first-rounder hasn’t played a single inning at the Triple-A level. Yet Walker has torn the cover off the ball in the minors and is credited by evaluators with arguably the best hit/power combination of any current prospect. He’ll surely get everyday reps now that he’s on the MLB club, mostly in the outfield corners and at designated hitter considering his natural third base position is already filled.

Gorman, Alec Burleson and prospects like Masyn Winn and Matthew Liberatore aren’t counted on to play huge roles from the outset. They’re all well-regarded to varying degrees, though, and the organizational depth could position St. Louis to make a midseason strike on the trade market if they’re battling for the division as expected.

The starting staff is probably the area of the roster that could stand to see the biggest upgrade. St. Louis has a decent collection of quality arms but doesn’t have the top-of-the-rotation hurler that most other contenders do. Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz are the top five on the depth chart. Wainwright will begin the year on the injured list after suffering a groin strain during a workout, pushing Jake Woodford into the season-opening rotation. It’s a stable but not especially high-impact group, illustrated by Quintana getting the nod for Game One of the Cards’ playoff series last year.

Acquiring a starting pitcher at the deadline could come with the added bonus of deepening the 2024 staff. As recently as last week, Matz represented the only established starter under club control beyond this season. The Cards took a step towards solidifying the long-term group by extending Mikolas on what amounts to a two-year, $40MM investment. The deal tacks on some immediate money for the veteran in the form of a $5MM signing bonus and a bump in 2023 salary from $15.75MM to $18.75MM. In exchange, the Cards will keep him around for two extra seasons at $16MM annually.

There’s room for another extension and/or trade for a controllable pitcher. Wainwright isn’t coming back in 2024; Montgomery and Flaherty are on track to hit free agency. Perhaps Liberatore, Woodford or a prospect like Tink Hence takes a step forward this year. As of now, only Matz and Mikolas can confidently be penciled into next year’s rotation.

How to balance that long-term outlook with the club’s more immediate needs will be determined over the coming months. As they do seemingly every year, the Cardinals enter 2023 with one of the game’s deeper rosters. They’re well positioned to compete for another division title in what should again be a fairly weak NL Central. The Pirates and Reds aren’t playoff competitive. The Cubs have improved but have a significant gap to get to the top of the division. St. Louis and the Brewers seem the two best teams, offering a clear path for the Cardinals to claim a fifth consecutive postseason berth.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on March 28. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the Cardinals’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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After two seasons of lackluster hitting, the Marlins made several moves in the hopes of finally turning around their offense.  The question now becomes if those offensive additions will provide enough help, and whether or not the club’s pitching and defense might take a step backwards.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $12.5MM
Total spending: $25.5MM

Option Decisions

  • Declined $6.3MM mutual option on IF Joey Wendle, $75K buyout (Marlins retained Wendle via arbitration)

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Jon Berti, IF/OF: One year, $2.125MM (includes $25K buyout of $3.5MM club option for 2024; if option is declined, Marlins still hold arbitration control over Berti)

Notable Losses

The first step in the Marlins’ offseason was the hiring of a new manager, as Skip Schumaker was brought on board as Don Mattingly’s replacement.  Schumaker is a first-time manager who has a strong resume as a coach with the Cardinals and Padres. He and a mostly new coaching staff will be fresh voices within an organization in need of a shakeup after a 136-188 record over the last two seasons.

Hiring Schumaker and the coaching staff was basically the biggest Marlins news for the first two months of the offseason, though Kim Ng’s front office was undoubtedly very busy in laying the groundwork for future moves.  Heading into the winter, Miami’s gameplan seemed pretty apparent — trade from its surplus of young pitching to land at least one quality hitter who could upgrade the club’s stagnant lineup.  It isn’t surprising that it took the Marlins until January to finally swing that big pitching-for-hitting trade, as most rotation-needy teams opted to add pitching in free agency rather than meet Miami’s significant asking price.

Such teams as the Rockies, Cardinals, Red Sox, Mets, and Diamondbacks were all linked to the Marlins in trade talks, with players like Brendan Rodgers, Brett Baty, and Triston Casas reportedly on Miami’s target list.  But, it was the Twins who finally found common ground with the Marlins, resulting in the four-player trade that brought Luis Arraez to Miami in exchange for Pablo Lopez and two notable prospects (Jose Salas, Byron Chourio).

The prospect element of the deal shouldn’t be overlooked, as the Marlins’ willingness to part with minor league talent in addition to Lopez indicates just how much they coveted Arraez.  The reigning AL batting champ is exactly the type of high-contact hitter the Fish were seeking as the offseason began, and Arraez’s left-handed bat also helps balance a righty-heavy lineup.  Arraez’s relative lack of power isn’t as important to the Marlins as his ability to put the ball into play and avoid strikeouts, and his three remaining years of arbitration control make him more of a longer-term solution for Miami.

By the time of the Minnesota trade, Arraez’s addition further shook up a Marlins infield that underwent some other changes earlier in January.  Miami traded longtime shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers in exchange for shortstop prospect Jacob Amaya, and dipped into the free agent market to sign Jean Segura to a two-year, $17MM contract.  The infield changes weren’t done there, as after Spring Training began, the Fish inked veterans Yuli Gurriel and Jose Iglesias to minor league contracts.

The end result is a rather unexpected infield alignment.  Segura will be Miami’s starting third baseman, though his career experience at the position consists of 179 2/3 innings in 2020 with the Phillies.  Arraez will play second base, despite some relatively mixed reviews on his glovework from public defensive metrics and how Arraez’s knees (which have been an injury concern in the past) will hold up at a more difficult position than first base.  Joey Wendle will get the bulk of the work at shortstop, with Iglesias (if he makes the team) and utilitymen Jon Berti and Garrett Hampson providing some support since Wendle has played only 647 2/3 innings at short over his seven MLB seasons.  Gurriel could pair with Garrett Cooper for first base duty, with Cooper also likely to see some corner outfield work on occasion.

The name not listed within the infield mix is Jazz Chisholm Jr., as the former second baseman will now move into center field for the first time in his professional career.  Center field has been a longstanding target area for the Marlins, so if Chisholm is able to be even a passable option on the grass without losing any of his hitting stroke, that might be a win for the team.  Of course, there’s plenty of risk involved in Chisholm adopting an entirely new position, perhaps both health-wise (he played only 60 games last season due to a stress fracture in his back and a torn meniscus) and defensively.  “Passable” glovework might not be enough for a center fielder in the spacious loanDepot Park outfield, especially since Avisail Garcia and projected left fielder Jesus Sanchez are average defenders at best in the corners.

It makes for something of a roll of the dice for Miami, though it is possible some adjustments could be made.  Due to their minor league contracts, it isn’t even a guarantee yet that Gurriel or Iglesias will make the roster, so Arraez might end up being the player sharing time with Cooper at first time.  That would open up second base for either Chisholm or Segura if one of the two are struggling in their new positions, with Berti, Hampson, or (in center field) Sanchez or Bryan De La Cruz able to fill some of the gaps.  Amaya might also get the call for his MLB debut if he hits well at Triple-A, since his glove is already considered to be big league-ready.

If the defense does start springing too many holes, it will be easy to second-guess Miami’s strategy in picking which hitters to target.  Arraez and Segura are above-average hitters who fit the Marlins’ desire for players who can get on base and put the ball into play, putting pressure on opponents to try and defend at loanDepot Park.  Yet, if their offensive contributions are blunted by subpar defense, it will call into question why the Marlins couldn’t have found hitters who were cleaner fits into their lineup without all of the position-juggling.

This isn’t to say the Marlins didn’t look into other options, as they pursued free agents such as Jose Abreu and Justin Turner but were outbid.  Names like Josh Bell, Michael Conforto, Jurickson Profar, Cody Bellinger, and even Willson Contreras also drew at least cursory interest from the Marlins before signing elsewhere.  On the trade front, Miami certainly discussed so many of their pitchers (besides Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez) with so many other teams about a wide variety of hitters that only time will tell if there was ever a better deal out there than the Lopez/Arraez trade.

A questionable defense can also surely lessen the impact of a quality pitching staff.  It is a testament to the Marlins’ pitching depth that the rotation still looks like the team’s strength even without Lopez.  Alcantara is a top-tier ace, Jesus Luzardo showed plenty of promise when healthy, Edward Cabrera could be on the verge of a breakout, and Trevor Rogers’ solid 2021 season isn’t a distant memory, even if Rogers has to rebound after a disappointing 2022.  Braxton Garrett is the top depth option, but given Garrett’s inexperience and Sixto Sanchez’s uncertain health status, Miami added to this mix with a new face in veteran Johnny Cueto.

After a few injury-riddled and only moderately effective seasons with the Giants, Cueto bounced back with a solid year with the White Sox, posting a 3.35 ERA over 158 1/3 innings.  Despite a lack of velocity and one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, Cueto finessed his way to success by mostly limiting hard contact and still posting an outstanding walk rate.  Even if Cueto has moved into the “crafty veteran” stage of his career, he still looks like he has something to offer in his age-37 season if he can stay off the injured list.

The bullpen was a lot less effective than the rotation last year, so the Fish bolstered the relief corps with a trio of interesting deals.  Grounder specialist Richard Bleier was sent to the Red Sox in exchange for former closer Matt Barnes, J.T. Chargois (and former top-100 infield prospect Xavier Edwards) were picked up from the Rays in a four-player trade, and former fourth overall pick JJ Bleday was moved to the A’s in exchange for A.J. Puk.

It seemed as though Boston wanted to turn the page on Barnes after two seasons of highly volatile performance, as Barnes sandwiched a brutal four months of pitching (August/September 2021 and April/May of 2022) between otherwise very impressive work.  The upside is there for the Marlins, and with the Red Sox offsetting the cost between Barnes and Bleier’s salaries, the price was right for the Fish to acquire a reliever with possible closer potential.  It could also be noted that a grounder-heavy pitcher like Bleier might’ve been seen as less effective for 2023, given the new rules limiting shifts, and the fact that Miami might have a much shakier infield defense.

Chargois has pitched well over the last two seasons in Tampa’s bullpen, and Puk’s first full Major League season was a success, as he was one of only a few highlights in an otherwise rough season for Oakland.  Though the Athletics spoke of stretching Puk out as a starter this spring, his injury history and Miami’s starter depth probably means he’ll remain as a reliever, and he has already shown signs of being a very effective weapon out of the pen.

The Puk trade is also notable for Bleday’s inclusion, as it was one of a few instances this winter of Miami opting to move on from players who seemed like potential building blocks not long ago.  In addition to Bleday heading to Oakland, the Marlins traded Elieser Hernandez to the Mets, put Lewin Diaz and Cole Sulser on waivers to be claimed away, and non-tendered Brian Anderson and Nick Neidert.  Though salary and a preference for other positional options factored into some of these moves, the most obvious common element is that none of these players performed particularly well in 2022.

The Marlins are clearly getting impatient with losing, especially after last winter’s steps to acquire Garcia, Wendle, Jorge Soler, and Jacob Stallings didn’t pan out.  Miami’s ceiling in 2023 may hinge in large part on whether or not any of these players can get back on track, and the Fish have to hope that this offseason’s moves have at the very least elevated the talent floor on the roster.  The defensive re-alignment will be a major storyline to watch in the early days of the season, but if the experimentation with the gloves and the bats work out, the Marlins could be a sneaky team to watch in the NL wild card race.

How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live Cubs-centric chat on Thursday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

The Cubs made a pair of significant signings, but still avoided the market’s flashiest free agents.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs kicked off their offseason with one notable change to the coaching staff, promoting Dustin Kelly to hitting coach.  It’s been a high-turnover position for the Cubs over the years.  Otherwise, manager David Ross’ coaching staff largely remained the same.

The Cubs had telegraphed their intention to let Willson Contreras leave, but in November made the easy choice to tender the one-year qualifying offer in order to lock down draft pick compensation.  Contreras, of course, declined.  Though an agreement with Contreras wasn’t in the plans, it soon became clear the Cubs would be active in free agency.

From the outset, the Cubs were known to have interest in the “Big Four” free agent shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.  Though Nico Hoerner did a fine job at shortstop in 2022, he was willing to move to second base, and the Cubs saw it as an opportunity to improve their up-the-middle defense.

As you know, the Cubs signed Swanson to the second-largest contract in franchise history.  The Cubs’ choice will reverberate over the next seven years, so it’s worth examining how it unfolded.

Trea Turner was the first of the four off the board, reaching an 11-year, $300MM agreement with the Phillies on December 5th, the first day of the Winter Meetings.  That total exceeded MLBTR’s $268MM projection by about 12%, which doesn’t seem too bad.  But also consider that before Turner signed with the Phillies, the Padres reportedly offered $342MM, which topped our projection by about 28%.

Having left a reported $42MM on the table, it would appear that the suggestion of Turner’s strong east coast preference was accurate.  I assume there was some number the Cubs could have come up with to convince Turner to put down roots in the Midwest, but to the extent that any of these contracts are reasonable, that number would have been less so.  Turner was seemingly never really an option for the Cubs, but his signing established that Big Four shortstop prices would exceed preseason expectations.  It also established that the Padres badly wanted a top free agent position player, having offered $342MM to Turner and reportedly around $415MM to Aaron Judge.

Agent Scott Boras later revealed that the Cubs were of one at least three teams that were “really after” Bogaerts.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Twins, and Blue Jays, the Padres wanted Bogaerts enough to reach 11 years and $280MM on December 8th.  MLBTR was at $189MM for Bogaerts in October, so his total beat our projection by a whopping 48% and $91MM.  I don’t know what Bogaerts’ second-best offer was.  It’s possible that if bidding stopped in the $200MM range, the Cubs would’ve signed him.

The Cubs were presumably in on Correa to some degree, but at that point in the offseason he certainly seemed headed toward a contract well beyond their comfort zone.  MLBTR had predicted $288MM for Correa.  But five days after Bogaerts reached an agreement, Correa had a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in place – pending a physical.  That would’ve been 21% beyond our projection.

As of December 17th, the day the Cubs reached an agreement with Swanson, everyone still thought the Correa-Giants deal was happening.  That same day, Mets owner Steve Cohen remarked, “We got there late” on Correa.  Swanson seemed reasonable by comparison, with his contract exceeding MLBTR’s projection by about 15% and his total just above half of the initial Correa agreement.  While Swanson was the consensus “worst” of the four shortstops, that’s less a knock on him and more to highlight how good the other three have been in their careers.

Even to reach $177MM for Swanson, the Cubs had to go out of their comfort zone.  The contract runs through Swanson’s age-35 season, the type and length of deal they’ve been avoiding in recent years.  Given a high strikeout rate and lack of walks, Swanson’s power carries his offense and should lead to a wRC+ in the 110 range.  He’s very well-regarded defensively, winning a Gold Glove and leading shortstops by a wide margin in 2022 in Outs Above Average.  The Cubs expect Swanson to be a clubhouse leader and a high-floor, strong defensive shortstop who will remain at the position for most or all of his contract.

It’s worth noting that since Swanson declined a qualifying offer from the Braves, the Cubs will forfeit their second-highest pick in the July amateur draft and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.  This would have been true for Bogaerts or Turner as well.  The Cubs lost the #49 pick in the draft for signing Swanson, but also gained the #68 pick for the loss of Contreras.  Fans can welcome Contreras back to Wrigley in Cardinal red at a homestand in early May.

Three days after the Cubs reached agreement with Swanson, Correa’s press conference with the Giants was delayed due to an issue with his physical.  The issue was later said to be Correa’s 2014 fibula fracture.  The following day, Cohen and the Mets swooped in to make a $315MM deal, lopping off $35MM from the Giants’ price.  The Mets, however, had the same concerns as the Giants, and by January 5th other teams were again getting involved.

It was at this point that, in theory, the Cubs could have jumped in and done what Cohen initially planned to do: install Correa as the long-term third baseman.  But for a team that reportedly “loved” Correa as recently as November, the Cubs didn’t make him an offer his first time through free agency, after the lockout.  And the Ricketts family not being nearly as impulsive or free-spending as Cohen, there’s no indication they tried to jump in after Correa’s physicals scuttled two separate $300MM deals.  Plus, once the price tumbled all the way down to six years and $200MM, the Twins had clear advantages: they were the incumbent, and they’d have Correa continue playing shortstop.

So yes, the Cubs technically could have signed any of the Big Four shortstops.  But given how things developed and knowing what we know now, it’s difficult to see how it could have been anyone but Swanson with the Cubs’ current ownership.

Most of the Cubs’ key signings took place in December, so it was a very busy month for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins.  Throughout the offseason, the Cubs were known to be seeking two starting pitchers, one of whom might be Drew Smyly, who had good results for them over 106 1/3 innings in 2022.  Smyly was indeed the secondary rotation signing, at a price matching expectations.

Though some early interest was professed for Kodai Senga in November, it seems Jameson Taillon was always the Cubs’ top free agent starting pitcher target.  Taillon explained later to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, “The Cubs made it clear from day one I was a top priority. If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me.”  It seems the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure talking points really did help, as the Phillies offered Taillon $72MM, but he took $68MM from Chicago.

While MLBTR did expect a four-year deal for Taillon, the contracts he and Taijuan Walker received moved the mid-tier market forward with their $17-18MM average annual values.  Taillon, 31, is a solid mid-rotation arm, though I don’t think we can count on the Cubs getting him to miss more bats and raise his ceiling.  The team still lacks an ace, but convincing Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, or Jacob deGrom to join the Cubs would’ve required an uncharacteristic overpay by the Ricketts family.  The Rangers, another team that has been making improvements but still has less than a 2% chance at reaching the playoffs, did just that to lure deGrom.

The Cubs didn’t throw fans any curveballs in their choices to fill holes in center field and at catcher.  The market for center field was thin, and the club moved quickly to sign Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal.  The fit works for several reasons: his defense creates a decent floor for the Cubs, but the one-year term keeps the spot open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2024.  For his part, if the 27-year-old Bellinger can bring his wRC+ back into the 110 range, a good multiyear deal should be waiting for him in free agency after the season.

Reports suggested the Cubs had interest in catchers such as Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, and Sean Murphy.  Once Vazquez and Narvaez went off the board, the Cubs opted for a defense-first addition with the more affordable Tucker Barnhart.  Elsewhere the Cubs also worked around the edges, bringing in Trey Mancini with the goal of finding some pop.  Mancini will spend time in the outfield corners, at first base, and at DH as needed.  Given an opt-out after 2023, Mancini is seemingly hoping to rebuild value and re-enter the free agent market.

Eric Hosmer doesn’t provide power, but the Cubs brought him in anyway.  The Padres are paying all but $720K of Hosmer’s $13MM salary this year, so it won’t be painful for the Cubs to pull the plug if Hosmer isn’t producing.  It’s quite possible Matt Mervis hits his way into the lineup at Hosmer’s expense sometime in the first half.  The club similarly made a modest addition at third base with the Edwin Rios pickup.  Rios, at least, is on the right side of 30 and has shown big power in his limited big league exposure.  Rios missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and much of 2022 with a hamstring tear, hence his affordable contract.

For much-needed bullpen help, Hoyer again attempted to identify bargain buys.  However, he noted in January, “I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past. It’s made that job difficult.”  So far, Hoyer has matched up with a pair of righties: Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.  There’s been talk of adding a lefty, and Zack Britton and Mike Minor remain on the market with eight days left until Opening Day.

The bulk of the Cubs’ offseason comes down to a pair of long-term deals from the second tier of their respective positions in Swanson and Taillon.  Those two should help, and it’s possible Bellinger and/or Mancini have resurgent seasons.  On the other hand, the Cubs lost a very good catcher in Contreras.  Overall, the Cubs look a little bit better on paper, though they remain lacking in star power.

For a club that has committed over $500MM in contracts over the last two offseasons, it still feels like the Cubs are being cautious.  Owner Tom Ricketts expressed a willingness to exceed the competitive balance tax “in the near future,” but perhaps not by a lot.  The CBT is set at $233MM this year, with the Cubs currently projected in the $219MM range.  The CBT rises to $237MM in 2024, $241MM in ’25, and $244MM in ’26.

Assuming Marcus Stroman and Mancini opt out after the season, the Cubs’ projected CBT payroll for 2024 will be south of $100MM, leaving plenty of spending room for next offseason.  While the Cubs have several interesting prospects, their farm system is not teeming with near-MLB-ready future stars, and it’s not clear exactly how Hoyer and company will pull the team out of its current rut.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Link to poll)

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves were the offseason’s least active free agent spender. With payroll mounting, they allowed a star hitter to depart for a second straight offseason. Atlanta instead landed arguably the top player of the winter trade market, promptly extending him to join a loaded internal group.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $1.4MM
Total spending: $1.4MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Jake Odorizzi exercised $12.5MM player option instead of $6.25MM buyout

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Signed LHP Tyler Matzek to two-year, $3.1MM extension (deal also contains 2025 club option and potentially buys out one free agent year)
  • Signed C Sean Murphy to six-year, $73MM extension (deal also contains 2029 club option and potentially buys out four free agent years)

Notable Losses

The Braves had an otherworldly second half to secure their fifth consecutive NL East title. Unlike the year before, they weren’t able to catch fire during the postseason. After losing in the Division Series to the Phillies, Atlanta went into the offseason again facing the potential departure of a star position player.

As was the case with Freddie Freeman a year ago, there was some early belief the Braves wouldn’t part ways with Dansby Swanson. The former first overall pick is a Georgia native and had emerged as a clubhouse leader, to say nothing of his excellent durability and quality production on both sides of the ball. Yet reports even before the offseason began suggested Atlanta had floated around $100MM in extension talks — a number that might’ve been acceptable early in the year but looked very light by the start of the offseason.

Atlanta made Swanson a qualifying offer that he predictably rejected. There didn’t seem to be much further contact; Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported in early December that Atlanta and Swanson’s camp hadn’t had any real negotiations since the start of the offseason. Two weeks after that, Swanson was a Cub. His $177MM guarantee with Chicago shattered Atlanta’s reported offer from during the season. The Braves picked up a compensatory draft pick but go into 2023 with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years.

Swanson was one of four All-Star caliber shortstops available in free agency. Atlanta was never substantively linked to any of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts either, hinting at the payroll questions that surrounded the organization throughout the winter. No organization has been as successful as the Braves at signing early-career players to long-term extensions. Deals for the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II have locked in a core that should compete throughout the decade. Yet those contracts have run up the payroll, limiting the club’s flexibility to attack free agency.

Atlanta entered the winter with a projected franchise-record payroll. The Liberty Media ownership group floated the notion of running top five payrolls in the near future. That raised the expectations among some within the fanbase but always felt a bit misleading, as Atlanta’s existing commitments put them in the back half of the top ten in spending already. There simply didn’t seem to be much room for the front office to play the open market.

No other team spent less in free agency. Atlanta’s only major league free agent signees were corner outfielder Jordan Luplow and relievers Nick Anderson and Jackson Stephens (the latter two of whom signed split deals that pay less for time spent in the minors). All three players had been cut at the start of the offseason — Stephens by the Braves themselves — and none will open this year on the MLB roster. Luplow and Anderson have already been optioned to Triple-A, while Atlanta ran Stephens through waivers and sent him outright to Gwinnett.

Without much spending capacity, Braves’ brass turned to the trade market to bolster a win-now roster. Atlanta orchestrated arguably the biggest trade of the winter, a three-team blockbuster that registered as a major surprise. There was never much doubt the rebuilding A’s would trade Sean Murphy. However, few would’ve pegged Atlanta as the landing spot back in November. The Braves already had a quality catching group consisting of Travis d’Arnaud, William Contreras and Manny Piña. There were plenty of other teams with a more dire catching need.

Murphy is a special player, though, one whom Atlanta pursued despite that positional depth. He’s among the sport’s best defensive catchers and has hit at an above-average level throughout his four-season career. Murphy has topped 15 home runs in each of the last two years despite playing his home games in one of the sport’s least favorable offensive environments. He draws walks, has power, and posted a personal-low 20.3% strikeout rate last season. There aren’t many more valuable all-around catchers.

Even a team with as much depth as the Braves would upgrade from adding a player of that caliber. Shortly after the Winter Meetings, Atlanta pulled it off by looping in the Brewers in a three-team deal that would send young outfielder Esteury Ruiz from Milwaukee to Oakland. Contreras, a quality hitter with some defensive concerns, was shipped off to Milwaukee as their catcher of the future. Piña headed back to the A’s as part of a salary offset. The Braves relinquished some upper level rotation depth, packaging Kyle Muller, Freddy Tarnok and High-A pitching prospect Royber Salinas to Oakland. Atlanta gave up a handful of well-regarded players but no one in that group looks like the kind of headliner the Braves will be devastated to lose, particularly since Murphy steps in as an immediate upgrade over the best player they relinquished.

A big part of Murphy’s appeal was his three remaining seasons of arbitration eligibility. While he was controllable at below-market rates through 2025, Atlanta committed to him as part of the core long before he ever donned a Braves uniform. Within weeks of the trade, Murphy and the Braves had agreed to a $73MM extension that buys out three free agent years and gives the club an affordable $15MM option for a fourth. It was another extension that has the potential to be a team-friendly pact and aligns well with the contention window for this core.

With Murphy in the fold, d’Arnaud gets pushed into the role of overqualified backup. Atlanta quickly made clear they wouldn’t look to trade him. They’ll instead deploy him frequently as the designated hitter and on rest days for Murphy. It served to indirectly upgrade a DH position that was one of the few position player weaknesses on the roster.

How to divvy up DH playing time dovetails with one of the other questionable spots: left field. Marcell Ozuna hasn’t performed well through the first two seasons of a four-year deal. He’s still due $37MM over the next couple seasons and remains on the roster. Atlanta looks set to give him another shot to reestablish himself offensively while splitting time between left field and DH.

That’s also true of Eddie Rosario. He followed up his 2021 World Series heroics with a disastrous ’22 campaign, hitting .212/.259/.328 in 80 games. The organization has attributed those struggles to an eye issue for which he underwent corrective vision surgery last April. There’s presumably some merit to that but Rosario has been one of the sport’s streakiest players throughout his eight-year MLB career. He’s not likely to be as bad as he was last season but he’s also not the established offensive force a team would be enthused to have in left field.

Rather than bring in a clear upgrade, Atlanta took a volume approach to left field. Luplow signed to add a right-handed matchup bat to the mix. The Braves took a flier on the toolsy Sam Hilliard, a former Rockie with big power but massive strikeout tallies. Atlanta also acquired defensive specialist Eli White from the Rangers and brought in veteran Kevin Pillar on a minor league deal. Adam Duvall and Robbie Grossman were allowed to depart in free agency. Hilliard and Pillar remain in MLB camp and could have the leg up on season-opening bench spots, with Hilliard out of minor league options and Pillar having the right to retest free agency if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.

It’s a hodgepodge of options without a clear solution, one where the organization seems set to take a hot hand approach. Whoever’s in left will be joined by two of the sport’s top young outfielders in Harris and Acuña. It’s a similar story on the infield, where three stars are joined by one area of concern.

Olson and Albies will be back on the left side of the infield. Riley has third base secured. Atlanta maintained throughout the winter it’d be an open competition to replace Swanson. There seemed a general expectation that 22-year-old Vaughn Grissom would take that job after he flashed some offensive potential last season while Albies was injured. Grissom’s production tailed off after a scorching start and prospect evaluators aren’t convinced he’ll be able to handle the position defensively. Atlanta settled the Opening Day shortstop debate yesterday, optioning both Grissom and former first-round pick Braden Shewmake to Gwinnett.

The job now falls to Orlando Arcia, an experienced utility option whose career offensive track record is below-average. The 28-year-old hit at a decent .244/.316/.416 clip in part-time action last season, however. The Braves will go with stability over upside in the early going, turning to Arcia and likely tabbing non-roster invitee Ehire Adrianza as a utility option off the bench. There’s no question they’re in for a downgrade relative to Swanson, though that would’ve been true regardless of which player won the job. Arcia is an unexciting stopgap whom the club will count on as a low-end regular while giving Grissom and Shewmake more developmental run. The Braves could have turned to a veteran free agent like Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias for little cost but apparently don’t consider either to be a better player than Arcia.

While a veteran won the shortstop job out of camp, Atlanta’s fifth starter role looks as if it’ll fall to a rookie. The Braves have an elite top four with Max Fried, Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. Atlanta cleared a path to the fifth spot for a young pitcher at the start of the offseason, paying down $10MM of Jake Odorizzi’s $12.5MM contract to offload him to Texas. That deal brought back former first-round pick Kolby Allard, who has gotten hit hard at the MLB level and will start the year on the injured list because of an oblique issue.

With Odorizzi out of the picture, the fifth starter job seemed to fall to one of Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder or Michael Soroka. Soroka fell out of the Opening Day mix by suffering a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Anderson and Elder got leapfrogged on the depth chart by prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, both of whom have excelled in camp. Anderson and Elder were optioned out, leaving Dodd and Shuster to battle for the fifth spot. Neither has yet played in MLB; they’re both coming off strong seasons in the upper minors and have quality secondary stuff and command to compensate for mediocre velocity.

As with any team, the Braves are sure to cycle through a number of pitchers at the back of the rotation as injuries and performance necessitate. The fifth spot shouldn’t be a huge concern thanks to the elite front four and a bullpen that again looks like one of the game’s best. They let closer Kenley Jansen walk after one very good season in Atlanta but have ample possibilities to fill the high-leverage innings.

The Braves acquired Raisel Iglesias at last summer’s deadline as a ready-made closing replacement for Jansen. A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee are excellent setup options from the left side. Atlanta brought in veteran specialist Lucas Luetge in a trade after he was designated for assignment by the Yankees to add a third quality left-hander. Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates are right-handed setup options. The Braves landed one of the better relievers available in trade this offseason, sending third base/corner outfield prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy to Detroit for the final arbitration season of hard-throwing righty Joe Jiménez.

That’s seven spots accounted for if everyone’s healthy. Anderson and Stephens could get looks in a depth capacity at some point. Old friend Jesse Chavez is back in camp as a non-roster invitee and might get the first crack at a long relief role. Atlanta agreed to a two-year deal with Tyler Matzek to cement him as a part of the 2024 relief corps, though he won’t be available this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October.

Once the offseason roster work was complete, the Braves turned their attention to a couple administrative concerns. Atlanta signed manager Brian Snitker to an extension that runs through 2025, tacking on two guaranteed seasons to his existing deal. That came on the heels of a notable front office departure, with vice president of scouting Dana Brown departing in January to take over baseball operations with the Astros.

There were a few high-level changes this winter but much of the Braves’ offseason is built around continuity. The Braves struck for one of the biggest trades and added a couple relievers in smaller deals. They did virtually nothing in free agency while watching Swanson and Jansen sign elsewhere. While it may not have been the most exciting winter for the fanbase, the Braves will head into the season with a legitimate goal of claiming a sixth straight NL East title. The organization has committed to this core and the group will try to again hold off the ascendant Mets and Phillies in arguably the game’s most competitive division.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Braves on March 22. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the Atlanta offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

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