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The Hitch In A Potential Dallas Keuchel Trade

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Almost exactly two years ago, December 30th of 2019, the White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel to a three-year contract that guaranteed him $55.5MM. Keuchel was excellent in the shortened 2020 campaign, throwing 63 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.99. However, there were reasons to be suspicious of those outcomes, as all of the advanced metrics thought he deserved much worse. (4.30 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA.)

That discrepancy was largely due to his declining strikeout rate, as well as an unsustainable 4.7% HR/FB rate. Keuchel has always been a groundball guy and has never had tremendous strikeout stuff. In his Cy Young season, 2015, he hit his high point with a strikeout rate of 23.7%, just a few ticks above that year’s league average of 20.4%. Since then, the league average has trended north, landing at 23.2% in 2021. Keuchel’s, however, has been steadily dropping and was at 16.3% in 2020.

In 2021, his strikeout rate fell further, landing at 13.2%, and his batted ball luck ran out, sending his ERA soaring up to a career-high 5.28. The advanced metrics felt that was largely deserved, based on the lack of Ks, as evidenced by his 6.20 xERA, 4.74 xFIP and 5.01 SIERA.

With one guaranteed year remaining on his contract, it makes sense for the White Sox to look into trading him for a couple of reasons. First, there’s his diminished effectiveness, as illustrated by those declining strikeout rates and increasing ERA. It’s possible that he could turn things around, but he turns 34 tomorrow, New Year’s Day, meaning he would have to buck traditional aging trends to do it.

Secondly, there’s his salary, as he’ll be paid $18MM in 2022, along with a $1.5MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2023. The team is in unprecedented payroll territory, for them, having set a franchise record in 2021 by having an Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM. They’re projected to blow way past that in 2022, currently sitting around $180MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

However, the problem with that club option is that it’s actually a club/vesting option. It becomes guaranteed if Keuchel pitches at least 160 innings in each of 2021 and 2022. He’s already hit the first of those benchmarks, as he threw 162 innings in 2021. Another season of 160 innings and that $20MM for 2023 becomes guaranteed. That’s not a difficult line for Keuchel to reach as long as he’s healthy. Over the past eight seasons, he reached that threshold in six of them, if we prorate his 2020 innings total. In 2017, he missed some time with neck issues and came just shy, at 145 2/3 innings. And in 2019, he got to 112 2/3, but that was because he lingered on the free agent market until being signed by Atlanta a few months into the season and didn’t make his season debut until June 21st. In other words, apart from that neck issue in 2017, he’s been a fairly reliable innings eater, meaning he has a decent chance of triggering that option.

This is where it gets tricky to line up a trade. A team with some wiggle room in their budget might be willing to take on Keuchel’s $18MM for this coming season, but they would have to also consider the distinct possibility that Keuchel stays healthy and doubles their commitment, both in dollars and in years. It’s possible a team could acquire Keuchel and try to intentionally limit his innings to prevent the option from vesting, but that type of direct manipulation has the potential to lead to a grievance, either an official one or an unofficial one. As an example of how an unofficial grievance could hurt a team, it could reduce their chances of signing or extending players if they have shown themselves to be underhanded in their dealings with players. Perhaps the White Sox could sweeten the pot for the team on the other end of the deal by including a prospect or two, but the trouble is that their farm isn’t in great shape, at least according to Baseball America, who ranked their system dead last in the league in their most recent Organization Talent Rankings.

Perhaps the best move for the White Sox is to stand pat with Keuchel and hope that he has a bounceback campaign. Their starting five rotation looks to be solid, with Keuchel joined by Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. However, teams need more than five starters to get through a season and their depth isn’t terribly strong. Jonathan Stiever and Jimmy Lambert are depth options on the 40-man roster, but neither has more than 15 innings of MLB experience, and even their Triple-A numbers aren’t terribly exciting so far. Even if the club finds the money to add another starter, they might need Keuchel’s help to get through the season in an AL Central that is becoming more competitive.

Quick Hits: Santana, Nimmo, Bedell

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After receiving a PRP injection in October, Carlos Santana said that “Now, I feel 100 percent” in the wake of an injury-plagued season, the Royals first baseman told The Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy.  This tracks with the 4-6 week timeline Santana initially gave in the wake of the injection, which was meant to help treat the Grade 2 quad strain that plagued the veteran slugger during the last six weeks of the season.  Between the quad and other leg problems, Santana clearly wore down in 2021, batting only .185/.217/.284 over his last 351 plate appearances.

With this rough season lingering, Santana said that he is “working on a couple things that I need to help me, my swing and my body.  That’s the only thing I changed.  I started early, working out, compared to the year before.”  Now entering his age-36 season, Santana has posted two below-average offensive years (as per the wRC+ metric) since his 2019 All-Star campaign, which is a little ominous for a Royals team that still owes Santana $10.5MM in 2022.  While Santana has bounced back strongly from disappointing years in the past, 2021 was the worst of his 12 big league seasons by just about every metric, so Santana will have more of a climb to recapture his old form.

More from around the baseball world as we enter 2022….

  • Brandon Nimmo is a free agent next winter, and “the expectation is” that the Mets will pursue a contract extension, The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes.  Nimmo has a strong .266/.393/.445 slash line over six career MLB seasons, yet he has only 1695 PA and 457 games on his big league resume due to a variety of injuries.  Given this checkered health history, one wonders how much of a long-term commitment New York would be willing to make to Nimmo, or if the Mets might only be willing to offer an extension at a relatively team-friendly price.  From Nimmo’s perspective, he will have to weigh locking in some form of a guaranteed payday, or perhaps betting on himself to stay healthy and productive, thus potentially setting him up for a much richer free agent contract from the Mets or another team in the 2022-23 offseason.  Hypothetically, the incentive-heavy extension between the Twins and another oft-injured outfielder in Byron Buxton could serve as something of a model for a Nimmo extension, if likely at a lower price point than the $100MM in guaranteed money that Buxton will receive.  (Interestingly, Nimmo and Buxton are more comparable than one might think, in terms of fWAR.)
  • Cardinals prospect Ian Bedell is set to make some light throws off a mound this week, according to Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  This marks Bedell’s first work off a mound since he underwent Tommy John surgery back in May, and the 22-year-old has been able to continue his rehab normally with minor league staff, as Bedell and minor league team personnel aren’t subject to the lockout.  The right-hander is tentatively still on schedule to return to action by May 2022, as Bedell is eager to resume a pro career that has already been set back by the pandemic and now his TJ procedure.  Bedell was a fourth-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2020 draft, and he tossed only 2 2/3 innings for the team’s high-A affiliate before being shut down for surgery last season.

Pitching Notes: Scherzer, Matzek, Schmidt

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A dead arm kept Max Scherzer from pitching in Game Six of the NLDS, which Scherzer believes was due to pitching fewer innings in the lead-up to the postseason.  However, as the ace right-hander told Jorge Castillo of The Los Angeles Times, Scherzer doesn’t hold the Dodgers at fault for the situation, nor was the postseason a factor in his decision to sign with the Mets rather than return to Chavez Ravine.  The Dodgers tried to limit their starters’ innings in order to keep them fresh for October, and Scherzer went into the playoffs assuming (and he told the club as much) that he was able to keep up the same workload as in 2019, when he helped lead the Nationals to the World Series.  But, he and the Dodgers “never took that variable into consideration” of how pitching less heading into 2021 postseason would impact his arm.

“I bear more brunt of that because of me having those discussions with [manager Dave Roberts] about that, about how I can be used in the postseason and coming up short on that, on my end, of saying I can do something and then it didn’t happen,” Scherzer said.  He also noted that his upcoming free agency didn’t weigh into his scratched start: “It’s literally my arm’s health.  When you can’t throw, you can’t throw….Throwing in Game 6, I would’ve been rolling the dice on sustaining a substantial injury.”

More from other pitchers around the game…

  • Tyler Matzek didn’t appear in a single big league game from 2016-19, as the southpaw found his career all but halted due to control issues and a case of the yips.  It took a long time and a lot of work for Matzek to feel comfortable on and off the field, as The Ringer’s Jordan Ritter Conn details, but Matzek returned to become a strong contributor out of the Braves bullpen over the last two seasons, culminating in his role in Atlanta’s World Series title.  While Matzek’s control issues haven’t entirely gone away (he has a 12.2% walk rate in 2020-21), he has posted a 2.64 ERA and 31.2% strikeout over 92 regular season innings, plus an excellent 1.48 ERA over 24 1/3 postseason frames.
  • One of the Yankees’ more prominent pitching prospects, Clarke Schmidt’s big league career has been limited to 12 2/3 innings, due in large part to an elbow injury that sidelined him for much of 2021.  “It just didn’t respond like we expected it to and it took forever for it to get right,” Schmidt tells The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler about his injury, an extensor strain that Schmidt described as “basically the same thing as tennis elbow.”  Once finally recovered, Schmidt was able to pitch 38 innings of minor league ball and then 6 1/3 innings with the Yankees at the MLB level, and most importantly he says he is feeling healthy heading into the 2022 campaign.  Some adjustments have already been made to his offseason training plan, however, as Schmidt feels that overwork led to last year’s injury.  “I just pushed the gas pedal a little bit too much too early and I learned my lesson,” he said.  It seems like that New York will start Schmidt in Triple-A to give him a bit more seasoning (he has only 25 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball under his belt), but for a Yankees club that can always use pitching depth, Schmidt could be an important arm to watch as the season proceeds.

Transaction Retrospection: The Pirates Take Roberto Clemente From The Dodgers In The Rule 5 Draft

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Though the lockout prevented the Rule 5 Draft from taking place in its usual December timeslot, the R5 will happen at some point once the transactions freeze is over, thus continuing one of baseball’s oldest traditions.  At a time when competitive balance is at the forefront of labor talks between the league and the MLBPA, the Rule 5 Draft has long served as a vehicle for players to gain opportunities on new teams, and to prevent clubs from hoarding young talent.  While the specifics and procedures of the event changed greatly over the years, the Rule 5 Draft has existed in one form or another since 1892, becoming a staple of the offseason even if often overshadowed by bigger winter transactions featuring proven MLB stars.

And yet, the Rule 5 Draft tends to jump into the headlines whenever one of the picks ends up becoming a notable contributor to his new team.  Last year’s draft, for example, was a particularly strong class that saw Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox), Akil Baddoo (Tigers), and Tyler Wells (Orioles) all deliver strong rookie seasons.  Both the modern rules of the draft and the increased focus on prospect value make it less likely that a true superstar minor leaguer will slip through the cracks of the Rule 5, though that doesn’t stop teams from dreaming that just maybe, their next Rule 5 pick will end up being the next Roberto Clemente.

Like clockwork, Clemente’s name is inevitably mentioned every year around Rule 5 time, as the Pirates legend is certainly the most prominent player to ever be selected in the relative modern era of the R5.  (Hall-of-Famers Christy Mathewson and Hack Wilson were also Rule 5 picks, though both players had already debuted in the majors prior to their selection.)  Even in Clemente’s day, the Rule 5 Draft’s procedures were different than they are now, as Clemente was eligible to be selected due to his status as a “bonus baby.”

From 1947 to 1965, MLB had a rule in place stipulating that if any amateur player signed a contract with a bonus greater than $4K, that player had to remain on his team’s big league roster for two full seasons.  If that player wasn’t on his new team’s active roster, he was eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

This is exactly what happened to Clemente, signed by the then-Brooklyn Dodgers in February 1954 at age 19.  Signed for a $10K bonus and a $5K salary, that type of money in 1954 alone put Clemente on the radar of other teams, and international scouts were already well aware of Clemente’s potential.  The Braves reportedly offered Clemente a much larger bonus, but he opted to stick with the Dodgers since he had already verbally agreed to their deal.

However, even with all of this known interest in Clemente, the Dodgers didn’t put him on their 25-man roster.  Brooklyn had won the last two National League pennants, and with the team aiming to finally break through and win the World Series, the Dodgers felt they couldn’t afford to have an untested rookie filling a roster spot.  Clemente was instead assigned to the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Montreal, as the Dodgers seemingly just crossed their fingers that they could sneak him through the Rule 5 field.

In a 2019 piece for The Athletic, Stephen J. Nesbitt unraveled some of the mythology surrounding Clemente’s brief Dodgers tenure.  The popular version of the story is that Montreal tried to shield Clemente from rival scouts by limiting his playing time and benching him whenever he had a good game, or removing him from the lineup if he had a big hit early in a game.  However, SABR researcher Stew Thornley noted that the right-handed hitting Clemente was almost never deployed against right-handed pitching, so a strict platoon could have been more to blame for Clemente’s lack of playing time than any attempt from the Dodgers to try and “hide” him.

Besides, while Clemente hit only .257/.286/.372 in his 155 plate appearances with Montreal, his raw ability was hard to miss.  (Clemente was also on fire while playing winter ball in Puerto Rico around the time of the R5.)  The Pirates took clear notice, and since they had the first pick of the 1954 Rule 5 Draft, Clemente was quickly Pittsburgh-bound that offseason.  If the Dodgers’ strategy was indeed to just hope that other teams would ignore such a prominent prospect, the bet didn’t pay off.

As Nesbitt notes, longtime Dodgers GM Buzzie Bavasi has told a few different stories in regard to why or how Brooklyn lost Clemente, such as Pirates GM Branch Rickey backing out of a gentleman’s agreement to not take Clemente in the Rule 5 Draft.  In another version, Bavasi claimed the Dodgers signed Clemente solely to keep him away from the arch-rival Giants, and eventually direct him via the R5 to an also-ran team.  Bavasi also said in an e-mail to Thornley in 2005 that Jackie Robinson personally told the front office that adding Clemente to the team and removing a white player from the roster “would be setting our program back five years.”

All of Bavasi’s claims seem to only generate more questions than answers, and yet the end result was still Clemente in a Pirates uniform.  In the short term, losing Clemente didn’t hurt the Dodgers, as the team continued being a perennial contender and won four World Series titles between 1955-65.  As well, Clemente took some time to fully adjust to the majors, hitting a modest .289/.311/.395 with 26 home runs over his first five seasons and 2560 plate appearances with Pittsburgh.

Needless to say, however, Clemente is an awfully big “one that got away.”  One can only imagine how much more successful the Dodgers would have been with Clemente in their lineup, especially after he broke out into true stardom.  From 1960-72, Clemente hit .329/.375/.503 with 214 home runs while playing peerless right field defense and unleashing arguably the best outfield throwing arm in baseball history on many a hapless baserunner.  If Bavasi did count on Clemente being suppressed on a losing team, that plan backfired — the Pirates ended becoming much more competitive during Clemente’s tenure, highlighted by World Series championships in both 1960 and 1971.

It could be that losing Clemente inspired the Dodgers to take a bit more care with their next “bonus baby” player.  The next season, Brooklyn signed another promising youngster to a hefty $14K bonus and stuck with him on the MLB roster for the next two seasons.  Like Clemente, it also took this player some time to become a star, yet the Dodgers’ patience more than paid off as Sandy Koufax started dominating batters.

Clemente’s legend perhaps looms largest on December 31, as it was on this day in 1972 that Clemente and three other passengers died during a plane crash off the coast of Puerto Rico.  The flight was a relief mission intended to bring aid to Nicaragua following an earthquake, and Clemente wanted to personally supervise the delivery to ensure that the goods would reach their intended destination.  Clemente was only 38 years old at the time of his tragic passing.

Tanking Rankings

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It’s December 31st. The calendar is about to flip over to a new year, a time to reflect on the year that was and the year to come. The MLB lockout has also almost reached the one-month mark, giving us all plenty of time to think about the directions of our favourite baseball teams. So, without further ado, here’s a quick, or not-so-quick, overview of where each team is on the competitive spectrum heading into 2022.

In It To Win It

These teams won’t require a ton of explanation. They’ve been competing in recent years and figure to continue on that path. However, as we saw with the Nationals in 2021, teams have the potential to fall out of this section fast.

Angels: The Angels have been trying to win ever since Mike Trout’s debut in 2012, but without much success. Their only playoff appearance in that time was in 2014. Their last season with a winning percentage above .500 was 2015. Before the lockout, they signed four arms, bringing back Raisel Iglesias, as well as adding Aaron Loup, Michael Lorenzen and Noah Syndergaard.

Astros: They’ve made the playoffs five years in a row, including going to the World Series in 2021. Even if they don’t bring Carlos Correa back, they’ll be fine.

Blue Jays: The young core has arrived and the Blue Jays are in it. They made the expanded postseason in 2020 and came just shy in 2021, somehow missing the playoffs in a 91-win season. They’ve already spent some money on Kevin Gausman and Yimi Garcia this offseason, with more spending reportedly to come after the lockout.

Braves: Four straight years atop the NL East and the reigning World Series champs.

Brewers: Four straight trips to the postseason, including a 2021 that saw them win 95 games and top the NL Central. The retooling of the Cubs and Reds only helps them.

Cardinals: They’ve made the playoffs the past three years and haven’t finished below .500 since 2007. Before the lockout, they spent big to add Steven Matz to their rotation. Just like the Brewers, they’re helped by the retooling of the Cubs and Reds.

Dodgers: One of only two teams to cross the luxury tax barrier in 2021, there’s no question the Dodgers are going for it. They won the NL West eight straight years from 2013 to 2020, winning the World Series at the end of that run. In 2021, they had to settle for a Wild Card spot, thanks to the Giants, but that still made for a ninth straight postseason appearance.

Giants: After four straight losing seasons, the Giants stunned everyone by winning 107 games in 2021. Four-fifths of their starting rotation reached free agency after the season, but they’ve already re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood, as well as adding Alex Cobb, in order to reload for 2022.

Guardians: Cleveland finished above .500 for eight straight seasons from 2013 to 2020, making the playoffs five times and the World Series once. In 2021, they dropped down to 80-82, largely due to a rash of injuries to their starting rotation. With better health, they should be back over the line in 2022. They also should have some money to spend after the lockout, as their payroll is sitting below $50MM, which is low even for them.

Mariners: They haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, but they won 90 games in 2021 and just missed. They’ve already added Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier to go for it again in 2022.

Mets: The Mets were in the hunt for much of 2021 but stumbled down the stretch. Since then, they’ve been spending money like crazy to try and assure better results in 2022, including signing Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar.

Padres: The Padres were one of just two teams to go over the luxury tax line in 2021, along with the Dodgers. Like the Mets, they were in the playoff hunt for most of the year but stumbled down the stretch. Pitching health was a huge factor in their demise, but the return of Mike Clevinger should help them have better depth in 2022. They also added Luis Garcia, Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez to the staff before the lockout. (That last deal is still not official but apparently not in jeopardy.)

Phillies: After a long rebuild, the Phillies signalled they were ready to return to competing when they handed out a mega contract to Bryce Harper prior to the 2019 season. Since then, however, it’s been three years of treading around .500, going 81-81, 28-32 and 82-80 over the most recent campaigns. They’ve been relatively quiet so far this offseason, with their biggest pre-lockout move being the signing of Corey Knebel.

Rays: Four straight seasons above .500 and three straight postseason appearances, including a 100-win campaign in a stacked AL East in 2021. They just gave a huge extension to Wander Franco, sending a signal that they’re firmly in win-now mode for the foreseeable future.

Red Sox: The shortened 2020 campaign was bad for Boston, but they’ve won at least 84 games in the past five full seasons. In 2021, they won 92 games and made it to the ALCS. Before the lockout, they swapped Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. and a couple of prospects, as well as signing James Paxton, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill.

White Sox: Despite a history that goes back over a century, the White Sox made the postseason two years in a row for the first time in 2020 and 2021. Although the teams below them are making some gains, they’re still clear favorites in the AL Central.

Yankees: Although they haven’t won the World Series since 2009, which might seem like an eternity to their fans, the Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992.

Creeping Up

These teams have definitely been rebuilding recently but seem like they’ve had enough and are ready to make a jump. They still have to prove it, as nothing is guaranteed in baseball. But the trajectory looks good.

Marlins: The Marlins somehow made the expanded playoffs in the shortened 2020 campaign, but the last time they finished above .500 in a full season was 2009. There’s no questioning it’s been a miserable stretch for the franchise. However, things are starting to look up. They’ve assembled such a bevy of talented young starting pitchers that they’ve already started using it to upgrade other parts of the roster. The first such move was sending Zach Thompson to Pittsburgh in order to acquire catcher Jacob Stallings, and similar moves could follow. They’ve also added Joey Wendle in a trade and opened the pocketbooks to bring in Avisail Garcia. It won’t be an easy climb, given that they’re looking up at the reigning World Series champs and big spenders like the Mets and Phillies, but they’re clearly ready to start getting more aggressive.

Rangers: The Rangers just finished their fifth straight losing season and second straight with a winning percentage below .400. Their 102 losses in 2021 was more than everyone else except for the Orioles and Diamondbacks. However, since then, they have completely flipped the script, spending over half a billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun. They still face stiff competition as they are sharing a division with the Astros, Mariners and Angels, but it’s clear they’ve decided they’re done rebuilding.

Royals: 2021 didn’t go according to plan for the Royals, as they finished 74-88 for a fifth-consecutive losing season. They had attempted to come out of their rebuild by adding players like Mike Minor, Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi to their young core. Unfortunately, several players underperformed and kept the team from pushing forward as far as they hoped. But they’re loaded with young pitchers who still have room to grow, and they should see top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto make their debuts in 2022.

Tigers: It was a fifth-straight losing season for the Tigers, but there were some signs of hope in 2021. After a miserable 8-19 start in April, they went 69-66 the rest of the way. Just like the Rangers, the Tigers clearly decided that was enough rebuilding and that it was time to spend. Prior to the lockout, they put cash on the barrel for Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez, signaling that they’re making their move.

Twilight Zone

These teams are sort of in-between one option or another for now. After the lockout, things have the potential to move in different directions, with some teams perhaps forced to settle for a mushy middle-ground of not committing firmly to either path.

Athletics: It’s been four straight winning seasons for Oakland, but all signs are pointing towards a step back in 2022. The club let manager Bob Melvin depart for San Diego, seemingly content to get his salary off the books. Then general manager David Forst addressed the issue in November, admitting that they’re willing to field offers for any player on the roster. Although they haven’t hit the rebuild button just yet, it seems likely that the post-lockout era will see them quickly deal away some of their players that are approaching free agency, such as Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman or Frankie Montas. It might not be a lengthy rebuild, as the club has never had more than three consecutive losing seasons in the Billy Beane era. Still, it seems like the tide is pushing against them for now.

Cubs: After spending the past year trading away most of their World Series-winning core, it seemed like the Cubs were diving headfirst into the rebuild zone. However, this offseason has seen them make some surprising additions, as they claimed Wade Miley off waivers and then signed Marcus Stroman, Clint Frazier and Yan Gomes. They’ve definitely weakened themselves with their recent selloff, but they also don’t seem interested in fully bottoming out either.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have one of the cloudier crystal balls in the league. After three straight winning seasons, from 2017 to 2019, they went 25-35 in 2020. But given the small sample size of that season, it was reasonable enough to expect a decent campaign in 2021. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong and they went 52-110, tied with the Orioles for the worst record in baseball. Was this just a terrible, fluky nightmare or their true talent level? General manager Mike Hazen doesn’t think they need a full rebuild to get back on track, but they’re still in a tough spot, as the division features the Giants and Dodgers, who each won over 100 games in 2021, as well as a strong Padres team that underperformed and could easily be very good in 2022. So far, the DBacks have been fairly quiet this offseason, with their signing of Mark Melancon being their most noteworthy move. Their post-lockout plan is one of the most difficult to predict at the moment.

Reds: After a lengthy rebuild that saw the Reds post a losing record for six straight seasons from 2014 to 2019, they emerged as competitors in 2020, going 31-29 in the shortened season and qualifying for the expanded playoffs. In 2021, they hung around the Wild Card race all year but eventually came up short, finishing 83-79, a winning record but seven games shy of the postseason. Since then, the tea leaves have been ominous for Cincy fans. First, Tucker Barnhart was traded to Detroit. Then, general manager Nick Krall discussed the trade, saying “going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” That was followed by Wade Miley being put on waivers despite a great season in 2021 and a modest $10MM option for 2022. He will now be a division rival, as he was quickly snatched up by the Cubs. Since then, there has been a series of rumors detailing how almost every other team in the league wants to acquire Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Sonny Gray. Although they remain with the Reds for now, it seems the club is going to try and walk a fine line wherein they shed some payroll but stay competitive. It’s hard to subtract from an 83-win team and see them improve, but it seems like that’s what they’re going to try.

Rockies: Perhaps the most confounding team in the league, it’s really tough to figure out what to make of the Rockies. 2021 was their third straight losing season, which should have motivated them to at least make some future-focused moves. Instead, the trade deadline passed without them trading Trevor Story or Jon Gray. After the season, Story received a qualifying offer but Gray did not. The Rangers have since signed Gray, meaning the Rockies have lost him for nothing. Story seems destined to sign elsewhere, which will at least net them an extra draft pick. But we’re looking at a 74-win team has just lost two of its best players and shares a division with strong teams like the Giants, Dodgers and Padres. If they have a plan to return to postseason contention, it’s not apparent from the outside at the moment.

Twins: Minnesota made the playoffs three out of four years, qualifying for the postseason in 2017, 2019 and 2020, winning the AL Central in those latter two seasons. But just about everything went wrong in 2021, with the club finishing in the basement of the division with a record of 73-89. Owner Jim Pohlad has made it clear that they are not going into a rebuild, which they backed up by finally agreeing to an extension with Byron Buxton. However, what’s keeping them in the twilight zone is their rotation. They traded away Jose Berrios, lost Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery and Michael Pineda to free agency. The frenzied free agent market for starting pitching prior to the lockout essentially passed them by. They did sign Dylan Bundy, but he lost his rotation spot for the Angels in 2021 and finished the season with an ERA over 6.00. It’s hard to view your team as a competitor if that’s your ace. There are still some options available after the lockout, but there are lots of holes to be filled there. With the White Sox the clear division favorites and the Guardians, Tigers and Royals all in position to take steps forward in 2022, the Twins will have a difficult time papering over their flaws in the short window between the end of the lockout and the start of the season.

In The Tank

These teams are all focused on the future, with their respective 2022 seasons primarily dedicated to giving playing time to young, unproven players, or perhaps signing veterans to short-term deals with the aim of flipping them for prospects later.

Nationals: The Nationals stand out as an example of how quickly a team can swing from competing to rebuilding. On July 1st, 2021, the club was 40-39, 2 1/2 games behind the Mets in the NL East, a game and a half ahead of the Braves. They had won the World Series just a year and a half prior, in their eighth consecutive winning season. But after a disastrous stretch in July, they pulled the ripcord and went into full firesale mode, trading away Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes, Josh Harrison, Brad Hand, Daniel Hudson and Jon Lester. They figure to spend at least a year in the wilderness, giving playing time to younger players to see whether they can be part of the next winning club or not. However, with superstar Juan Soto just three years from free agency, they don’t want this reboot to take too long. Soto’s agent Scott Boras has said he won’t consider an extension until the team proves to him it’s committed to winning.

Orioles: There’s no sugarcoating this one. The Orioles have had a losing record in five straight seasons. In each of the last three full seasons, they lost at least 108 games. They lost 110 games in 2021, tied with the Diamondbacks for the worst in baseball. They are definitely tanking and likely will be for some time. They do have some exciting prospects on the way, headlined by Adley Rutschman, the consensus top prospect in the game. Their system is considered the second best in the league by Baseball America’s Organization Talent Rankings. However, they share a division with four teams that won at least 91 games in 2021. It’s going to take some time for the Orioles to even get mediocre, let alone competitive.

Pirates: The Pirates haven’t won a division title since 1992. After that, they endured a 20-year postseason drought, before qualifying for the Wild Card game in three straight years from 2013 to 2015. They’ve missed the playoffs in the six seasons since. They went 82-79 in 2018 but have had three straight miserable seasons, going 69-93, 19-41 and 61-101 from 2019 to 2021. It’s all about the future now, with the most recent move being Jacob Stallings getting traded to Miami for youngsters. Like the Orioles, the farm system is well regarded, coming in fourth on Baseball America’s rankings. The development of those prospects will determine when they can get out of the basement. General manager Ben Cherington has proven himself adept at this type of rebuild before, but the Pirates have less resources than his previous clubs, the Red Sox and Blue Jays.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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Coming off their third straight last place season, the Pirates remain squarely amidst a rebuild. It’ll be another quiet winter and likely another poor season at the major league level for Pittsburgh. Yet the burgeoning farm system is finally beginning to offer some long-term hope.

Guaranteed Contracts

Owe $3MM buyout on 2022 club option to Gregory Polanco, who was released in August

Total 2022 commitments: $14MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

As expected, the Pirates were one of the worst teams in the National League in 2021. It was the Bucs’ second consecutive season with a win percentage south of .400, and they’re again in line for a top five overall pick in the draft. That’s par for the course for one of the league’s most obvious rebuilders, and it sets the stage for another fairly quiet offseason.

The Pirates have been one of the lower-spending clubs around the league even during years with strong rosters. Pittsburgh entered 2021 with a player payroll estimated just north of $45MM, and their end-of-year expenditure was reportedly the lowest for any MLB team since 2013. Without any path to contention in 2022, it’s unlikely the Pirates push payroll much higher next season, although the complete lack of financial commitments entering the winter gave the front office some freedom for early-offseason moves.

Before the lockout, Pittsburgh made three low-cost big league signings. Southpaw José Quintana inked a $2MM deal and will get another rotation chance after spending the bulk of last season in the bullpen. An All-Star caliber hurler earlier in his career with the White Sox, Quintana hasn’t been especially productive over the past three seasons.

Quintana did miss bats at a career-best rate last year, even as he struggled to a personal-worst 6.43 ERA. That’s at least a bit encouraging, although it came with a corresponding spike in walks. The Bucs have enough rotation uncertainty to afford the veteran some innings in hopes of a bounceback. In an ideal world, Quintana would follow the Tyler Anderson path of posting solid enough production to recoup a mid-tier prospect or two from a contender at next summer’s trade deadline.

Pittsburgh is still in the stages of the rebuild where they’re willing to move players off the big league club for future value. They did just that last month, in fact, sending Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings to the Marlins. The move brought back right-hander Zach Thompson — who has a chance to step right into the rotation after flashing some promise as a rookie — and a pair of prospects, right-hander Kyle Nicolas and outfielder Connor Scott.

Parting with the well-regarded Stallings likely wasn’t an easy call, but this was probably the right time for the Bucs to pull the trigger. Not only is the backstop coming off perhaps the best season of his career, he just turned 32 years old. While the late bloomer remains under club control for three more seasons (barring changes to the service structure in the next CBA), he may not be as productive as he was this past season by the time the Pirates are ready to contend.

The Stallings trade and outright of backup Michael Pérez left the Pirates without a catcher. Yet they quickly turned to free agency to find the solution, signing former Indian Roberto Pérez to a $5MM guarantee. The 33-year-old is coming off a miserable offensive season that got him bought out by Cleveland, but he’s a high-end defender who should work well with the young pitching staff at a non-exorbitant cost. Pérez isn’t a long-term answer, but he’s a perfectly capable veteran stopgap for next season.

Roberto Pérez is the only catcher on the Pittsburgh 40-man roster at the moment, meaning there’ll be more moves coming out of the lockout. Acquisitions will come via low-cost free agency or perhaps the Rule 5 draft, but Pittsburgh will have to select at least one more catcher to the big league club by Opening Day. Michael Pérez remains in the system as non-roster depth and figures to get another look himself in Spring Training.

Moving elsewhere around the diamond, first base is accounted for by the Bucs’ other major league free agent signing thus far. Yoshi Tsutsugo returned on a $4MM deal, and general manager Ben Cherington has already indicated he’s likely to spend the majority of his time at first. Tsutsugo struggled with the Rays and Dodgers after an impressive run in Japan, but he showed signs of life after latching on with the Bucs late in the year.

Tsutsugo hit .268/.347/.535 across 144 plate appearances in black and gold. Can he sustain anywhere near that level of production over a longer run? That remains to be seen, but he impressed the front office enough to earn another look. With Tsutsugo taking over as the club’s top lefty-hitting first baseman, the Pirates moved on from Colin Moran just before the non-tender deadline.

The other corner infield spot belongs to Ke’Bryan Hayes. It was a disappointing 2021 for the 24-year-old Hayes, who entered the season as a favorite for Rookie of the Year after a monster three weeks late in 2020. He suffered a fairly significant wrist injury within the first week of the season, and he never seemed to get on track offensively upon his return. The organization will hope for more than a .257/.316/.373 line from Hayes moving forward, but he’s clearly a key piece of the franchise’s long-term future.

The Bucs’ middle infield is in a bit of flux. All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier was traded away this summer. Kevin Newman, who took the bulk of playing time at shortstop this past season, remains on hand but hit .226/.265/.309 over 554 plate appearances. Newman may open the year at the position, but it shouldn’t be long before top prospect Oneil Cruz is playing shortstop regularly. The 23-year-old was rewarded for a monster Double-A season with a two-game big league cameo to end the year. But he’s only played six Triple-A games, and a season-opening assignment to Indianapolis may be in order.

Cruz is a fascinating prospect, with his massive 6’7″ frame leading to questions about his ability to stick at shortstop. The rebuild affords the Pirates some freedom to evaluate Cruz’s long-term defensive home, as they can live with a few miscues during what’ll be a non-competitive year regardless. Either way, Cruz’s huge power potential from the left-handed batter’s box makes him an intriguing young talent who’ll get plenty of reps against big league pitching in the not too distant future.

Second base is completely up in the air, with Cole Tucker, Hoy Park, Michael Chavis and Newman among the internal options. Everyone in that group underperformed in 2021, though, and none should be a lock for playing time. Free agency offers numerous depth options around the dirt. Old friend Josh Harrison is available, while Hanser Alberto, Ehire Adrianza and Shed Long are among the infielders who could sign minor league deals. Adding some veteran help to the mix — even if just via non-roster pact — could be in order.

There’s also plenty of uncertainty in the outfield, but one player is locked in. Center fielder Bryan Reynolds had an excellent 2021 campaign, hitting .302/.390/.522 over 646 plate appearances. That was his second very strong showing out of three big league seasons, and Reynolds looks to have emerged as the type of cornerstone position player clubs are hoping to find during a rebuild.

There’s surely robust interest from teams around the league in acquiring Reynolds, but it’d be a major surprise if he’s ultimately moved. Pittsburgh reportedly rebuffed huge demand for the left-handed hitter at the deadline, viewing him as a potential anchor of their next competitive club. That won’t stop teams from calling coming out of the lockout, but all indications to this point are that the Pirates don’t have much interest in parting with Reynolds.

The Bucs can control the 26-year-old (27 in January) for another four seasons via the arbitration process. They surely have their sights set on competing within that time frame, and Reynolds isn’t slated to hit free agency until after his age-30 season. It’s justifiable for the front office to just hold onto him via arbitration, then, although the organization would likely have interest in extending their window of club control an additional few seasons if Reynolds is amenable.

As a Super Two player, Reynolds is already in line for his first significant salary this winter. He’s projected to make $4.5MM in 2022, which could lessen his desire to push back his path to free agency for more up-front security. We’ve seen a few extensions for outfielders in this service bucket in the past, but Reynolds’ offensive track record to date far surpasses those of players (Max Kepler, Kevin Kiermaier, Ender Inciarte) who have signed this kind of deal.

In all likelihood, a Reynolds extension would probably have to set a new precedent for players in this service class. For a Pirates’ franchise that has never gone beyond $60MM on a guaranteed contract, that kind of deal may not be in the cards. That said, the Pirates don’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the books beyond next season, so the possibility of committing to Reynolds long-term can’t be ruled out.

Aside from Reynolds, there’s little in the way of locks for outfield playing time. Ben Gamel avoided arbitration and will probably be in the mix. Former top prospect Anthony Alford finished the season on a bit of a hot streak and could get a look. The Bucs grabbed the out-of-options Greg Allen off waivers from the Yankees and will either have to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment themselves. Prospects Travis Swaggerty and Canaan Smith-Njigba each seem likely to begin the year in Triple-A but could debut within the first few months.

None of Gamel, Alford or Allen should stand in the way of the team looking into upgrades though. Pittsburgh has an estimated $39MM in 2022 commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, leaving a few million dollars even before reaching last year’s minuscule mark. The Pirates aren’t going to sign anyone in the Michael Conforto range, but they could look to the free agent outfield market for possible minor league or low-cost MLB deals in the Quintana/Pérez mold.

That’s also true of the rotation, which Cherington has expressed an interest in continuing to address. Quintana has a rotation spot and Thompson likely does as well after being acquired in the Stallings deal. JT Brubaker will probably get another shot. The right-hander allowed far too many home runs en route to a 5.36 ERA last year, but he posted solid strikeout and walk numbers.

Bryse Wilson, acquired from the Braves in last summer’s Richard Rodríguez swap, joins Mitch Keller as former top prospects who may be running out of chances. Both pitchers have strong pedigree but have yet to produce in the big leagues, either from a run prevention or peripherals perspective. Wilson is out of options, so he’ll likely be on the active roster in some capacity. Such players as Max Kranick, Dillon Peters, Miguel Yajure and Wil Crowe could be in the mix as depth options at the back end.

Given that collection of generally unestablished names, it’s no surprise Cherington’s open to further additions. The Pirates should be a target destination for reclamation candidates like Vince Velasquez, Zach Davies or Drew Smyly. In addition to the possibility of landing a rotation job, the pitcher-friendly nature of PNC Park could help arms of that ilk who have struggled with home runs in recent seasons.

As is the case for most rebuilding teams, the Pirates don’t have a ton of certainty in the bullpen. David Bednar and Chris Stratton are in line for high-leverage roles, although either could attract trade interest. Duane Underwood Jr. probably did enough in 2021 to earn a season-opening spot, and some members of the rotation depth mix will wind up working in shorter stints as well.

There’s room here, as there is throughout the roster, for some cheap fliers. There’s the possibility of a Rodríguez reunion; the Bucs’ former closer finished the year terribly in Atlanta and was non-tendered after the season. Yet he’s clearly capable of having success in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if the front office tried to bring him back. He’s just one of numerous options available, and the Bucs will probably bring in a few relievers on minors deals and/or waiver claims before the start of the season.

The Pirates are perennially hamstrung by payroll limitations, and they’re not going to make any impact splashes this offseason. There’s enough flexibility around the roster that the front office may just have their pick of bounceback/reclamation targets coming out of the lockout. For another season, though, the organization’s most important developments will likely be concentrated on the farm.

Yankees Have Reportedly Considered Matt Chapman As Part Of Shortstop Search

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There are still various paths the Yankees’ search for shortstop help could take, and the organization has at least given some thought to a potential out-of-the-box solution. In an appearance on the Michael Kay Show this week, Buster Olney of ESPN said the Yankees “have talked a little bit…internally” about the possibility of acquiring A’s third baseman Matt Chapman with an eye towards moving him to shortstop.

All teams kick around outside-the-box possibilities to address areas of the roster, of course. That the front office has considered Chapman as a shortstop option doesn’t inherently mean they’re preparing for an all-out run at the Oakland third bagger coming out of the transactions freeze. Yet the idea sheds some light on the Bronx Bombers’ potential willingness to bolster the position in an atypical manner.

Chapman has played ten innings at shortstop as a big leaguer, starting one game there in 2020. Otherwise, he’s played exclusively at the hot corner, where he’s among the game’s top defenders. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have both given Chapman glowing reviews for his glovework throughout his career. Since Chapman made his big league debut in 2017, no third baseman has topped his +78 run mark from DRS. Only Nolan Arenado, at +71, is even in the same stratosphere; no one else is above +28. By measure of OAA, Chapman’s second at the position at +48 plays, with only Arenado rated more highly.

There’d be some risk in switching Chapman off a position at which he’s been so excellent. Yet it’s also easy to see why a team may give the idea some thought, since essentially no other third baseman can match Chapman’s glove and elite arm strength. Moves up the defensive spectrum are infrequent but not completely unheard of. The Rangers’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa, another reported player of interest to the Yankees, slid from third base to shortstop last season after a couple years of plus glovework at third. His defensive ratings at shortstop were mixed; DRS thought Kiner-Falefa was well above-average, while Statcast panned his work there.

The A’s are generally expected to make a few key players available in trade coming out of the lockout. Oakland is reportedly looking to trim payroll, and Chapman — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.5MM salary in his penultimate season of arbitration — is among the costlier players on the roster. The A’s would be able to bring in a strong return for the 28-year-old based on the quality of his glove alone, but potential acquiring teams will also have to determine whether they believe he can regain his best form at the plate.

After combining for a .263/.348/.507 line between 2018-19, Chapman owns a .215/.306/.431 mark since the start of 2020. He’s seen a spike in swing-and-miss over the past couple seasons, striking out at the sixth-highest rate (33.1%) among players with 500+ plate appearances in that time. A right hip injury that necessitated September 2020 surgery could partially explain those struggles, but Chapman continued to whiff at an alarming rate throughout the 2021 campaign even as he’s gotten further removed from that procedure.

Of course, the Yankees could consider more traditional solutions to address their shortstop need. Carlos Correa and Trevor Story remain available on the free agent market, but reports have suggested New York may not want to make that kind of long-term investment with prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe nearing big league readiness. New York could turn to other stopgap options via free agency or trade. Players like Kiner-Falefa or Nick Ahmed may be available and would cost less prospect capital than Chapman would, albeit without comparable on-field upside. As things currently stand, Gio Urshela would likely be the top shortstop option in the Bronx but he could kick back over to third base if the Yankees address the position externally.

Josh Bell Looks Like A Trade Candidate For The Second Straight Offseason

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Last winter, Josh Bell found himself on the move. The Pirates, the only team for which he’d played in his career, were amidst a full rebuild. Bell was down to his final two seasons of arbitration control, and his escalating salaries were accounting for a larger percentage of Pittsburgh’s annually low payrolls.

Bell’s value last winter was complicated by a subpar 2020 showing. While he seemed to break out as a middle-of-the-order slugger with a .277/.367/.569 showing the year before, the switch-hitter stumbled during the shortened season. Bell appeared in 57 of the Bucs’ 60 games but he hit only .226/.305/.364 across 223 plate appearances. Of perhaps even greater concern, his strikeout rate spiked from 19.2% to a career-high 26.5%.

In need of a first baseman, the Nationals took a shot on a Bell bounceback. Washington acquired the Texas native for a pair of pitching prospects, Eddy Yean and Wil Crowe. While Bell didn’t completely regain his 2019 numbers, that move largely paid off for Nats’ general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff.

The 29-year-old appeared in 144 games and tallied 568 trips to the plate this past season. His 27 home runs were the second most of his career, trailing only his 37 longballs from 2019. Overall, Bell hit .261/.347/.476, an offensive showing that checked in 18 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

In addition to the improved results, Bell seemingly rediscovered his better process at the dish. He cut his strikeouts back to their typical range, punching out in only 17.8% of his plate appearances (about five points lower than average). His rate of contact on swings rebounded to 77.4% after cratering to 69% during his down year in 2020. Those better bat-to-ball skills came without sacrificing contact authority. Bell’s average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard contact rate (52%) in 2021 were each career bests.

The one alarming aspect of Bell’s batted ball profile that carried over from 2020 was an uptick in ground-balls. While he’d only put 44% of his batted balls on the ground in his 2019 peak season, that spiked to 55.7% in 2020 and checked in at 53.5% this year. So Bell gave back some of the impact of his hard contact by hitting the ball into the turf, explaining why his power numbers didn’t bounce all the way back to 2019 form.

Even still, Bell had a decent season. His numbers were a bit better than the .257/.338/.454 leaguewide mark from first basemen. His 2019 campaign offers a hint of further offensive potential, and Bell had a quietly strong second half. From the All-Star Break onward, he hit .277/.381/.506 with more walks than strikeouts (albeit with a still concerning 55.9% grounder percentage).

That largely went unnoticed, though, because Washington had since fallen out of contention. While the Nats had hoped that a Bell resurgence would be part of a team-wide bounceback that’d keep them competitive in the NL East, things didn’t play out that way. Washington hovered around the periphery of contention for the season’s first few months, but a mid-July swoon kicked off a deadline teardown and organizational reboot.

Bell wasn’t part of that midseason sell-off, but there figures to be a bit more interest around the league after his strong play down the stretch. He’s now entering his final year of club control, and the Nationals don’t seem to have a plausible path to contention next season. It’s not clear Washington wants to entertain a multi-year rebuild — with Juan Soto under club control for three more seasons, there’s not much time to dawdle — but Bell’s ticketed for free agency next winter anyhow. Trading him coming out of the lockout wouldn’t be a sign of a longer-term rebuild so much as a recognition of their unlikely contention status in 2022.

The first base market didn’t move much before the transactions freeze. Freddie Freeman’s status seems to linger over both free agency and trade possibilities. Beyond Freeman, Anthony Rizzo remains on the open market. The A’s seem likely to trade Matt Olson. Perhaps the Yankees will move Luke Voit. Some of those dominoes may have to fall before there’s much progress on a potential Bell trade.

At a projected $10MM arbitration salary, he’s not going to bring back a return as strong as Oakland would get for Olson or New York would recoup for Voit. There’ll be teams in the Freeman/Olson markets who don’t land those stars, though. The upcoming collective bargaining agreement may introduce a universal designated hitter, leaving some National League clubs looking for another bat. Some of those teams figure to see Bell as a viable alternative to the market’s costlier options. Given the Nationals’ current competitive situation, it wouldn’t be too surprising if he’s donning a different uniform for the third straight year come Opening Day.

Collective Bargaining Issues: Competitive Balance Tax

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Few of the game’s core economic features figures to be as impactful in upcoming collective bargaining negotiations as the luxury tax (or competitive balance tax, as it’s officially known). Where to set the tax thresholds and what penalties should be in place for teams that exceed them are key points of issue for the league’s owners and the MLB Players Association.

As a brief primer, the luxury tax was first introduced for the 1997 season. The provision’s purpose is to deter spending among big-market franchises by penalizing teams that exceed certain player expenditures. (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes covered the year-by-year progression of the luxury tax in a post earlier this month). Teams that surpass certain thresholds will be faced with financial penalties and potential draft choice/international signing bonus forfeitures, which become more significant for teams that exceed the threshold by particularly high margins and/or surpass the mark in multiple consecutive seasons. Teams’ CBT figures are calculated by summing the average annual values of their commitments and accounting for certain player benefits, not by looking at clubs’ actual payrolls in any given year.

For the 2021 season, the first luxury tax marker was set at $210MM. Only the Dodgers and Padres exceeded that figure. Five teams, meanwhile, curtailed their spending between $205MM and $210MM, seemingly treating the CBT threshold as some form of cap.

The three clubs that exceeded the threshold in 2020 (the Yankees, Astros and Cubs) all ducked underneath in 2021. That’s in continuation with a fairly common pattern for teams to “reset” their tax bracket after a year or two above the threshold, thereby avoiding the escalating penalties for exceeding in consecutive years.

It’s not only resetters that stayed below the threshold though. The Phillies, Mets and Red Sox — none of whom exceeded the tax in 2020 — were within $5MM of the mark but decided against surpassing $210MM. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored teams’ increasing reluctance to go over the tax threshold in February. Even for teams that didn’t have firm organizational mandates to stay below the mark, many were reluctant to take on any sort of penalty unless they were in position to blow by those markers, as both Mets owner Steve Cohen and Astros general manager James Click explained over the summer. The fees for exceeding the various thresholds under the 2016-21 CBA were as follows:

With certain high-payroll teams at least planning their budget with the luxury tax in mind — if not treating it as a firm cap altogether — pushing the thresholds up figures to be a point of emphasis for the players. After all, higher thresholds should lead to more willingness about the league’s top teams to spend. In collective bargaining talks before the lockout, the MLBPA proposed a $245MM threshold that would eliminate the escalating penalties for repeat payors, according to Gabe Lacques and Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

The league, predictably, hasn’t been as keen on increasing penalty-free spending capacity. MLB’s first core economics proposal actually called for the first tax threshold to be reduced to $180MM, as Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported in August. That came attached to a $100MM salary floor designed to incentivize spending among lower-payroll clubs, but the significantly lowered CBT thresholds always looked to be a non-starter for the union.

After the MLBPA rejected the $180MM possibility, the league offered to raise the tax thresholds above the $210MM level from 2021, albeit nowhere near the MLBPA’s target area. Shortly after the beginning of the lockout, Drellich reported the league was willing to push the first tax marker up to $214MM in the early years of a possible CBA, maxing out at $220MM by the end of the deal. That’s more in line with the gradual increases that have been in place in recent collective bargaining agreements than with the MLBPA’s push for a marked uptick.

There are a few different aspects for the league and union to agree upon regarding the competitive balance tax. Identifying a mutually-agreeable base number is the most obvious, but whether to reduce or eliminate penalties for repeat payors could be a point of contention. So too may be how the parties want to handle the escalating fees for clubs that exceed the marker by greater amounts. Indeed, the league’s initial proposal (the one which would’ve included a $180MM base tax threshold) also would’ve involved the creation of a fourth tier of penalization.

Ironing out the finer details of the luxury tax will be a challenge. Back-and-forth regarding the specifics of the CBT figures to be a recurring theme once the parties reinitiate discussions regarding core economics next month.

MLBTR Poll: How Should The Yankees Address Shortstop?

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Entering the offseason, there were few more obvious team/need pairings than the Yankees and shortstop. General manager Brian Cashman frankly stated in October the club “(has) to address” the position over the winter. Yet through the offseason’s first few months, the club hasn’t made a meaningful addition.

At the GM Meetings, Cashman said the Yankees had been in contact with the representatives for two free agent shortstops, later reported to be Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. There’s no indication talks with either player progressed, however, and Seager went on to sign with the Rangers. Correa won’t sign until after the lockout, but multiple reports have since indicated the Yankees would prefer a shorter-term option at the position. Highly-regarded prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe aren’t far off MLB readiness, and the Yankees do have to weigh whether splurging on a shortstop could limit their ability to upgrade the rotation and/or hammer out an extension with Aaron Judge.

If that’s actually the case, that’d rule out Correa and probably Trevor Story, the other All-Star shortstop still remaining in free agency. There’s not a whole lot of interest behind that duo. Andrelton Simmons and José Iglesias would be affordable, but that’s a reflection of the seasons off which they’re each coming. Simmons hit .223/.283/.274 over 451 plate appearances with the Twins; Iglesias’ production at the plate was acceptable, but he had an uncharacteristically poor year with the glove.

New York could also look into trade possibilities. They’ve already been tied to Rangers shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who might be displaced by Texas’ pre-lockout spending spree. Other potential trade candidates at the position include Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi. The A’s would probably love to move Elvis Andrus, but that’s a challenging endeavor, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week.

The final possibility is to rely on the in-house options. As things currently stand, Gio Urshela would be the presumptive regular shortstop. Gleyber Torres got kicked over to second base late last season, and the Yankees probably wouldn’t want him bouncing back and forth between the two middle infield spots. But someone like non-roster invitee José Peraza could crack the roster in a reserve capacity behind Urshela. That wouldn’t be ideal from a defensive standpoint and certainly isn’t what the Yankees had in mind entering the offseason, but Urshela would likely offer more at the plate than any of the stopgap options mentioned and wouldn’t come at any additional financial or trade cost.

We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership. If you were in the front office’s shoes, how would you handle the shortstop situation in the Bronx?

(poll link for app users)

 

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